How Much Of A Rout?

If my onservative readers are having trouble becoming irrationally exuberant about tomorrow's elections, Nate Silver of the NY Times suggests five reasons the polls may be underestimating the likely Republican tsunami.  Let's be clear - he is identifying arguments, not advocating for them, and he has no doubt weighed these issues before forecasting a Republican pick-up of 53 seats in the House.  Put another way, this is the short list of excuses pollsters will offer if Republcans shock the experts and gain 65 or 70 seats.

Still, your mileage may vary - some of these arguments may resonate more strongly with you than with grizzled professionals such as Larry Sabato, who predicts a Rep pick-up of 55 seats.  My personal favorite is this:

5. Likely voter models could be calibrated to the 2006 and 2008 elections, which were unusually good for Democrats. In addition to wrongly excluding some Republican “unlikely voters” (see Point No. 2), it’s also conceivable that some likely voter models based on past voting histories are overrating the propensity of Democrats to vote. The reason could be that some of them are based on past voting history, and a common question is whether the voter had participated in the last two elections.

But the last two elections — 2006 and 2008 — were good ones for Democrats, one in which there was little if any “enthusiasm gap,” or it may even have favored Democrats. This is, in fact, quite atypical: Republicans usually do have a turnout advantage, especially in midterm elections. Their demographics are older and whiter, and whites aged 50 and up are the most reliable voters. If likely voter models are benchmarked to 2006 and 2008 patterns, therefore, they could underestimate the turnout gap, giving too much credit to Democrats who voted in 2006 or 2008 but who don’t ordinarily. Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics makes a nice version of this argument.

With anti-war fervor in 2006 and Barack Fever in 2008, Dems will have a lot of supporters scored by pollsters as "likely voters" because they showed up for the last two elections.  Now we have an escalation in Afghanistan and Barack Fever seems to have broken, so those likely voters are likely to stay home come judgment day.

If the over-under is at 54 for the House, I say bet the over.

Comments

[I R A Darth Aggie]

I'm gonna be bottling the sweet, sweet tears of the libs from Tuesday night, and let them age properly before selling them and making a killing.

[jwest]

I’ve been arguing this for weeks with Nate and Micah Cohen at the NY Times. When asked to run a simulation based on not only the generic, but the indicated proportions by demographics, he declined.

The demographics are a big deal because of the way the pollster have modeled their turnout based on ’06 and ’08. Christine O’Donnell is currently winning in the lower two counties of Delaware, plus she is leading with independents. If African Americans in New Castle County don’t show up in the same proportions they did for Obama, she just might win this. Liberal heads would explode nationwide.

[Clarice]

Plus there's not as much walking around money and ACORN is under the microscope so voting by non existent voters should be down a lot.

[Appalled]

We'll see. I'm not sure the margin in the house matters that much, given the way the House is organized. I don't thnk there is much doubt the GOP will take the House and put Pelosi out of business.

I think the real question at this point is whether the GOP can run the table and capture the Senate. Personally, I'm not sure getting the Senate gets the GOP much more than a perception that they have more power than is actually in their hands.

My guess is Obama is not going to handle a GOP Congress like Bill Clinton did. Which will make this a very long two years, and one which could breed a third party.

[sbw]

"I'm not sure getting the Senate gets the GOP much more than a perception that they have more power than is actually in their hands."

... except for a healthy say during appointments and an ability to hold hearings

[Rick Ballard]

Appalled,

The Great Slaughter of the Blue Dogs is going to leave the Commie Caucus and the Black Caucus as the geriatric public 'face' of the Democrat Party. I agree that the size of the House majority is not of the highest importance but the concentration of the minority in Blue Hells echoing to the rattle of beggars cups does not bode well for a Democrat resurgence.

[Porchlight]

Appalled,

Dems ran the table in 2006. The Repub advantage this year is at least as great if not much greater than the Dem advantage then. I think the Senate will fall into place. If it does, expect a spate of articles comparing Mitch McConnell to the proverbial dog that caught the car he was chasing.

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

Did you see this up at Drudge - TV station forgets to run O'Donnell campaign ads.

Our media is totally broken.

[JM Hanes]

Beggin' yer indulgence, I'm moving this post over from the Live Report thread.

I'm too superstitious for irrational exuberance, so I'm just looking for 52 seats in the House, to take back the Pelosi gains in '06 and '08.

To pass the time this weekend, I decided to take a look at shifting numbers and majorities in the House & Senate over time. Assuming I didn't screw up my little spreadsheet, it was interesting to see that Clinton is the only Democrat who has ever had to work with an opposition Congress since 1956, which is as far back as I went. GW Bush is the only Republican who ever had Republican majorities.

Reagan is the only President, of either party, who had to work with a Congressional split (blue House, red Senate). Soooo, contra Jonathon Chait's baseline, the Republicans will be still be making history, if they only take the House. Obama will be the first Democratic Prez in over half a century who will have to deal with a two party Hill, and he'd have to be the Gipper to make that work.....

From a slightly different perspective, when GWB took office, Democrats had held both houses for 32 years, and Republicans for 6.

[Appalled]

sbw:

I'm not sure the incremental increase in the ability to hold up appointments is that large. Senators can already hold up appointments forever through holds, and spectacularly unfit nominees can be filibustered. In any event, Obama's likely response to all this will be recess appointemnts.

As for hearings -- the House can hold those, too. While I realize Senatorial hearings get better coverage, Senators as inquisitors usually stink big time, as they all think they are Perry Mason, and often end up sounding like they are Joe McCarthy.

[boris]

One unilateral power a Tea Party / GOP congress will have is to establish market stability. That always seems undervalued by politics wonks and one reason the eventual improvements in Iraq took them by surprise.

[Ranger]

Did you see this up at Drudge - TV station forgets to run O'Donnell campaign ads.

Our media is totally broken.

Posted by: Janet the tea-vangelist! | November 01, 2010 at 11:39 AM

Sounds like breach of contract to me. I hope she takes them to the cleaners no matter what the outcome tomorrow.

[daveinboca]

My somewhat contrarian take is to hope that the Senate is tied and that Biden has to be the tiebreaker---making Obama a sitting duck in 2012.

I agree with Clarice about the small-size role that ACORN may have, but the walking around money will still be there, with union-thug enforcers also banging the drums loudly. I was a Dem precinct warden once upon a time and had fistfuls of "five-dollar enforcers" to hand out on the streets.

Rick Ballard is right, also, and the exclusion of Blue Dogs from the Dem caucus will result in the urban plantation/twee yuppie ghetto screaming for totally unattainable goals. And maybe the NYT will put insane morons like Krugman and Rich on a shorter leash, although Bob Herbert will remain as the affirmative-action homeboy on the NYT's Op-Ed page. I hope the Dems become the Dallas Cowboys for two years until 2012, with all the parts, but none of the inspiration...!

Now we'll see if Obama has one grown-up bone in his body.

[Ranger]

In any event, Obama's likely response to all this will be recess appointemnts.

He may not even get that out of a close Senate. Remember that both sides agreed to prevent him from making any more recess appointments before the election because he has already abused the privlidge.

[Extraneus]

It's key to have the Senate in order to halt the further leftward move of the judiciary. To me, this is why his strange post-primary comments about O'Donnell was Rove's main crime. He didn't have to do that, and there was no good reason to do it. It just helped people pile on, when they could have lined up behind her, like conservatives would have lined up behind Castle if it had gone his way.

[Porchlight]

Did you see this up at Drudge - TV station forgets to run O'Donnell campaign ads.

Son of a b. That is the kind of thing that makes people want to riot in the streets.

[Clarice]

I think a huge roll over in the House sends a message to the others--kid of like a public hanging does. Of course, there may be still some pickpockets in the throng of gawkers, but I bet there are fewer.

It focuses the mind.

I want it all, and I think the notion that this means the voters will blame a Republican Congress for what happens is fantastical. I saw a video the other day in which no one in the crowd could even remember who was the vice president.

[RichatUF]

Ex-

The Dems were going to pile on O'Donnell regardless of Rove's comments.

[Army of Davids]

Economic incompetence.

ObamaCare....subsidize demand, tax supply and throw in price controls.

Yeah...that'll work.

[Army of Davids]

5,000 SEIU members going door to door here in California for Jerry Brown.

Pension spiking.

Politicians and unions scratching each others backs.

Crowding out other government services.

Come to California for the sun....stay for the social justice.

[Thomas Collins]

I'm of the mind that a 45-60 seat gain sends a message to the Dems, but a 75-100 seat gain sends a message to the Patton Boggs wing of the GOP (who in my view need to receive a message as much as the Dems). I want every prog and every Patton Boggs GOPer in Congress sweating bullets about the 2012 elections.

[Extraneus]

Sure, but a lot of Republicans piled on, too, and wrote her off. Rove helped that happen, and Krauthammer, too.

[Clarice]

**kiNd**

[rrpjr]

They haven't a clue what's about to hit them. Sadly, they still won't know on Wednesday. This cannot be interpreted as a lesson; leftists cannot learn lessons.

The next two years will be vicious, unprecedented. Executive orders and recess appointments, yes, but also demonization of every republican chairman and leader like you've never seen, in concert with the media's total war of slander and annihilation against conservatives.

[Porchlight]

The next two years will be vicious, unprecedented.

Agreed.

The next two years will also mark the official start of the left's campaign to divide and conquer the GOP. In this sense the JOM disagreements about Rove re: O'Donnell and Palin are merely a microcosm of what Dems want to happen. As much as I want to light into Rove I don't want to play by Dem rules.

[Extraneus]

Let's hope the new congress joins that total war, starting to CPB and NPR.

[daddy]

Good Morning,

On local Talk this AM a guy just called in from Kodiak.

He says he received a call last night from the Republican Party Rep in Kodiak who said that the Republican Party Alaska wanted him to vote for Lisa.

He is pissed off and wants to know if this is happening across the State. Will keep you advised.

[centralcal]

We have to take the battle to more than just the Congress, we have to take it to the MFM.

They ARE corrupt bastards and they ARE propagandists. You can never give them the benefit of the doubt. I cancelled my local rag, finally. They endorsed every Democrat in California.

[RichatUF]

Extraneus-

I'm stumped that Rove unloaded on her the way he did, but Krauthammer was unsurprising. O'Donnell, if she were to win, could send Rove and Krauthammer some flowers and thanks. We'll see-the Dems are trailing in all the demographic groups, including women, and the Dems have had some pretty shitty attacks on her that seem to have backfired (I find it odd that the Dems would have wasted a Presidential and VP visit and wasted money on attack ads that had to be purchased in the Philly market to destroy a "wierdo" and someone losing by 20 points).

[Extraneus]

Good for you, cc. It would help to have some guts from the top, too. Boehner, for example, could refuse to appear on CBS and ABC, and say why. Someone else could do the same with NBC, etc. Attack them.

Of course, there will always be weasels like McCain to curry favor with the MSM at others' expense.

[Ignatz Ratzkywatzky]

Amen to TC's 12:22PM post.

This election in 2010 is the most important election in our lifetimes and the most important one until.....well, until the next one in 2012.
Dumping Pelosi and Reid is important. The country repudiating Barry's odious sanctimony and making him a one term failure is even more so.
But realigning the Republicans to a party that is truly fiscally conservative and reverses the inertia of Leviathan is the most important of all.

[daddy]

Religion O' Peace update:

">http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69U1YE20101101"> Al Qaeda attack kills 52 hostages and police in a Catholic church in Baghdad.

[DebinNC]

Election night lineup at:

MSNBC.. Anchors: Keith, Chris, Rachel, Lawrence O', Eugene Robinson, and Ed Shultz on location in NV.

FNC..Anchors: Bret Baier and Megyn Kelly
Analysts: Brit, Juan, Rove, Joe Trippi, Bill O, Greta. Panelists: Huckabee, Newt, Palin

CNN..Anchors: Wolf, Anderson, Candy, John King, Soledad. Analysts: Parker, Spitzer, Borger, Gergen. Panelist: Begala, Bill Bennett, Brazile, Carville, Roland, Matalin, Ed Robbins, and Hillary Rosen.

ABC..Sawyer and Steffie
CBS: Katie Couric
NBC: Brian Williams
FOX: Shep
During the primetime 8-9 slot, election results will interrupt NBC's "Biggest Loser" and FOX's "Glee".

[Strawman Cometh]

Jim Ryan,
Be careful out there. Hat tip insty

[JM Hanes]

Porchlight:

"If it does, expect a spate of articles comparing Mitch McConnell to the proverbial dog that caught the car he was chasing."

Sooo right!

The Five Stages of Democratic Grief

Pre-mortems:
1. Prep the battlefield. Winning isn't everything, you know!
2. Move the goal posts (or baselines). If Republicans don't win bullet-proof margins, they're losers!

Post-Election:
3. Brief spasm of self-reflection, also known as self-exoneration, in which blame shifting is rapidly externalized.
4. Passive-aggressive amnesia, including but not limited to:

a) That's the price we pay for being better people than those guttersnipes!
b) Unless Dems are actually arrested for voter fraud, Republicans rigged the machines!
c) Republicans are clearly hoist on their own ugly petards!

5. New normal, same as the old normal. Everyone knows that Democrats have been victimized, yet again, by the Vast [insert slurs] Right Wing Conspiracy, but we will fight on in the name of the stupid voters they've duped.

[rse]

daddy-

Came over to post this for you from a column in today's EdWeek:

"Likewise, Murkowski has been one of the more moderate Republicans in the chamber, which is what got her into primary trouble in the first place. Her center-right position and committee post could present an opportunity to serve as a deal-maker, both within the committee itself and between a Republican House and a narrowly Democratic Senate. Republican gains would also position Murkowski as a pivotal voter for Democrats looking to obtain sixty votes on education legislation, giving her even more leverage in shaping federal ed. policy. "

Murk as the deal-maker for federal ed policy. That'll get you making phone calls and waving Miller signs.

[daddy]

Narciso,

Why am I not surprised. From Lisa's Right Hand man, Andrew Halcro:

"Updated: Halcro takes back his defense of Fagan
Andrew Halcro | Oct 31, 2010
UPDATED Nov. 1, 2010: Due to further information gathered and transcripts reviewed from the Dan Fagan show over the weekend, I retract my blog defending Dan's right to free speech concerning the incident that occurred on Thursday, as what he did was more than exercise his first amendment rights."

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

They ARE corrupt bastards and they ARE propagandists.

So true centralcal...and watch that video that Strawman Cometh linked. The men in that video believe all the lies the MFM have told them. Our media is criminal in spreading propaganda.

[Rob Crawford]

what he did was more than exercise his first amendment rights

If all he did was talk without making threats, it was speech.

[daddy]

rse,

Have so far read no comments yet today but your's, but trust me I will be out waving signs for Joe tomorrow.

For those interested:

Here is Fagan in his blog this morning saying what happened behind the scenes to get him pulled off the air. ">http://www.thealaskastandard.com/content/how-murkowski-dynasty-and-machine-forced-me-air"> How the Murkowski dynasty and machine forced me off the air

The part that caught my eye which I had not heard before, was the following:

"Now let’s look at John Tracy’s role in all this. Bookey says Tracy called him Friday demanding they deal with me because of my show Thursday urging people to register as a Senate write-in candidate. Tracy told Bookey he would be forced to “take some action” if nothing were done."

Not surprisingly, that bit of info does not come across in any of the statements from Tracy or from any reporting that I have heard about on this issue. If Fagan is correct about this, then it's almost as if an offer was made to somebody 'that they couldn't refuse'.

[Porchlight]

Well done, JMH. Put that up at Quasiblog and bookmark the link, you'll be sending people there quite often in the next few weeks, I suspect. :)

[Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)]

Boy Daddy, you really are an instigator of the first order. I'm quite impressed. Joe is going to win, BTW

[daddy]

Look whats about to slip under the radar screen:

">http://www.adn.com/2010/11/01/1529863/convicted-palin-hacker-asks-probation.html"> Convicted Palin hacker asks for probation in Tennessee

Next thing you know John Edward's might even admit he's the baby's father.

[Porchlight]

I think Typepad ate a post..I was worried that I didn't see Barone listed in DebinNC's election night lineup comment, but he is listed here as one of the contributors:

FOX News Election Night Coverage

Whew, I was freaking out for a few minutes there.

[Porchlight]

Also I can't wait to watch Brit Hume, too...

[Extraneus]

Did everyone see that Media Matters got Breitbart pulled from the ABC coverage?

[Porchlight]

Wow, Ex...I hadn't seen that. I admit I was very surprised that he was appearing on ABC in the first place...

[PaulY]

Will DOJ investigate SOROS for buying too much of the media?

[centralcal]

I now have ATT Uverse and don't know really how to use all the features.

Supposedly I can view 4 shows at once. I was thinking FNC (big picture) and MSNBC, CNN, & one of the alphabets in thumbnail. I don't want to listen to the folks in thumbnail, but I do want to see their faces when they melt down.

[ThomasF]

I'm gonna be bottling the sweet, sweet tears of the libs from Tuesday night, and let them age properly before selling them and making a killing.

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie | November 01, 2010 at 11:03 AM

The smell of Birkenstock wearing hippy is going to be as common as wet on a frogs ass.... don't waste you time you'll lose out on the bottling costs alone, narrow down your field to Alan Grayson supporters....

[East Bay Jay]

That O'Donnell commercial that didn't play was a blessing for her campaign and all Republican get out the vote efforts. It will now be mentioned on every FNC show for the next 36 hours. Those mentions will overwhelm any impact she might have gotten from an on schedule 11 PM airing (I'm guessing though).

[Strawman Cometh]

So, daddy, what are the rules up there in the general election? (Please don't go to the lengths you did when I asked you about the primaries - Alaska and the Nation need you on the street.) Does Miller need a certain % to avoid a run-off or does any plurality win?

[rrpjr]

"We have to take the battle to more than just the Congress, we have to take it to the MFM."

Dead on. The MFM are like Sauron's One Ring. Without it, the Left cannot survive as a governing party.

MFM must be taken down. This is the battle. Too bad no conservative politicians (with exception of Palin) get it. They all prostrate before the MFM.

[East Bay Jay]

Only now do I really believe in The Wave. Over at the SF Chronicle's website the top election story is the 6th! most important, roughly speaking. Lee Ann Rimes and a picking out peaches at a farmer's market picture both score over "End of the Road for Pelosi?" AT THE SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE (sfgate.com)!

They can't sell it anymore so they're just burying it. They'll only take their head out of the sand long enough to shout at conservatives.

[Porchlight]

off?

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

Will DOJ investigate SOROS for buying too much of the media?

No. Next question.

[Dave (in MA)]

So I heard that in his closing remarks at Smugstock over the weekend that Jon Stewart declaimed, “We live now in hard times, not end times”, presumably a swipe at the Beck gathering. I guess the "reality community"'s stereotype of the typical attendee of the Beck rally is that of the bearded, robed "Repent - the end is near"-sign caryying archetypal character from cartoons. Except, unlike the moonbat convergence over the weekend, they weren't carrying signs at the Beck rally. I didn't attend or watch the Beck rally and I rarely tune into his radio show, but if he thought we were living in "end times" then why is he plugging gold and "food insurance" on his show whenever I've put it on? How are those supposed to help his listeners if we're in "end times". It seems to me that we're in "rear end times". The government is filled with a bunch of asses who need spankings.

[centralcal]

caro and those collecting loser photos - here is an especially evil one of Bahney Fwank.

I don't know how to post pictures. Sorry.

[Barbara]

"Christine O’Donnell is currently winning in the lower two counties of Delaware, plus she is leading with independents...she just might win this. Liberal heads would explode nationwide."

As will Karl Rove's and Charles Krauthammer's.

[Strawman Cometh]

cc,
Normally, if I saw such an expression I would be tempted to ask, "Who pee'd in your cornflakes?", But in this case, I would not want to know.

[Porchlight]

Geraghty predicts 70 House seats.

[Pagar]

"nd spectacularly unfit nominees can be filibustered."

Two problems-- Democrats are already saying they intend to end the filibuster rule and apparently only need 51 votes from what I've read to do that.

#2-Every single nominee that has been put up so far has been spectacularly unfit and yet we have been stuck with them, because the Democrats find a Sen Graham or someone who will always compromise.

[Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)]

I want Linda McMahon to win.

[Rick Ballard]

Final Ras Generic +12R.

He's projecting a turnout of 38R/36D/26/I with independents leaning going R by 31 points. That implies roughly a 65/35 split and places the lower margin of pickups at 70+.

[Jim Ryan]

Anybody in Nevada who wants Reid gone, you're going to have a very bad night tomorrow unless you vote.

Think about how much his crooked cronies have on the line and how much dough they have to put behind getting fake votes for him.

The jaded money says Reid gets re-elected.

You better vote.

[jwest]

Porchlight,

You can tell just how far off Geraghty is by his call on MI-7. Schauer (the democrat) will lose this district by at least 6 points.

This is a traditionally republican district (and birthplace of the republican party, for cristsake). Schauer was elected after a bitter primary on the right and in the Obama wave. He couldn’t be reelected in this district even if Acorn was counting the votes.

If Geraghty wanted to make an accurate prediction, he would simply copy my +92 number.

[caro]

Keep the photo links coming. LUN or link is fine.

[Mark Folkestad]

Sheesh! Megyn just hit a clinker on her Kelly's Court segment. She sided with Fagan's station suspending him, saying that it was unethical for Fagan to say what he did, and fully within the rights of the station to do what they did. Megyn agreed with Mark Eiglarsh. Arthur Aidala was vehement that Fagan did nothing morally or ethically or legally wrong and should not have been suspended.

[Threadkiller]

ccal, Americas Most Unwanted:

">http://www.mediabistro.com/fishbowldc/files/2010/11/barney-frank-humorless1.jpg">

[Porchlight]

If Geraghty wanted to make an accurate prediction, he would simply copy my +92 number.

jwest,

I agree. :)

I too think 70 is on the low side. But it is pretty amusing to think of a prediction of 70 seats as cautious. I was called "delusional" on another blog for predicting 80 in September.

[bio mom]

I actually thiml Rove just wants Republicans elected. He would be happy to see O'Donnell win and give them another seat. He was taken aback by the Castle loss which had just happened and he was asked a direct question in his interview. He reacted emotionally instead of calculating his answer. This was caused by dismay that a Senate seat was likely lost. I would cut him a break. Now Krauthammer is a typical beltway type with all of their arrogance despite the fact that he is on our side.

[Stephanie]

Eyebleach!!!!

I've voting tomorrow after taking my daughter to her polling station to work. She's excited about working the vote and pissed that she isn't old enough to vote. She gets to register to vote this month, though. She is more excited about that than finally getting her driver's license.

[Thomas Collins]

Chavez may seize golf courses. He says there are better uses for the land. I guess that's one thing on which Barry and Hugo disagree.

[Danube of Thought]

To me, the number in the house is important far beyond simply gaining enough for a majority. The number of net GOP gains will be used as the single all-purpose yardstick for the scope of the repudiation of Obama and his agenda--and I think that's very important. I'll go with 56, but I secretly expect a higher number. (I know, I know.)

Taking the Senate would be terribly important as well. It is not only the hearings that can be held, it is the hearings that will never even take place, such as for some of the more malodorous judicial appointees.

Concerning the next two years, remember very recent history: the Dems took the house in 2006, but when 2008 rolled around they weren't held accountable for anything at all. I don't think the Boehner house will be under any undue pressure to accomplish much at all.

And I'm mighty glad to be back on the Coast...

[JM Hanes]

ccal:

"here is an especially evil one of Bahney Fwank."

I suddenly find myself remembering Tom DeLay's mugshot when he totally p3wnd the Dems with a beatific smile.

[JM Hanes]

Pagar:

"Democrats are already saying they intend to end the filibuster rule and apparently only need 51 votes from what I've read to do that."

When they're staring at potential minority status two years from now, I'd be really surprised if they decided to set that precedent.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Take this however you will, I have no link, but yesterday I heard/read, not even sure which, an interview with some college dorm kids who had been big Obama supporters in 2008. They were asked why they were refusing to take new and free Obama posters. The answer was, in essence, "that is so last year, we've moved on." Obama was nothing but the "fad" of the moment, like the hula hoop or pet rock.

[Clarice]

JM Hanes, I love your list. Do I have your permission to blog it crediting you?

[daddy]

"So, daddy, what are the rules up there in the general election?"

Strawman,

I don't know off the top but my guess currently is that the rulebook even as we speak is being tossed out the window, and that rival teams of Lawyers and Judges are all jockeying for position in what is going to soon overtake the Iditerod as the "Last great Race in America".

Thanks for that link about the Primaries. Had forgotten that, but it made me laugh.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Just a point about the Senate. Winning means taking over the committee charmanships, which is a very big deal. It also means being able to set the rules for the term and that is even a bigger big deal.

Lots of good legislation never sees the light of day when a Chairman refuses to allow an issue out of committee or refuses the other side the witnesses they wish to hear from, or even refuses to hold hearings. In other words, the majority gets to set the rules and those who set the rules of a game usually have an advantage because they make rules that favor their side.

BTW. that O'Donnel "ad" wasn't some 30 second spot, it was a bought and paid for 30 minute time slot "infomercial type" supposed to run on Sunday night, not in the middle of a work day on a Monday.

[narciso]

I'm not surprised daddy, I think I know way too much of that "Mos Eiseley cantina up there, they aren't just throwing out the rule book, they are using it for skeet practice

[Ignatz Ratzkywatzky]

--Anybody in Nevada who wants Reid gone, you're going to have a very bad night tomorrow unless you vote.--

Not sure I've ever heard a JOMer say they were from NV but perhaps a lurker is, Jim.

--BTW. that O'Donnel "ad" wasn't some 30 second spot, it was a bought and paid for 30 minute time slot "infomercial type" supposed to run on Sunday night, not in the middle of a work day on a Monday.--

And the station claims they forgot to run it...........twice. Fool me once, shame on you, etc.

[Clarice]

freddoso Washington Examiner:

mentioned the other day that early voting numbers were not looking good for Florida Democrats. Well, early voting is now finished, and they don’t look much better, according to GMU Professor Mike McDonald’s tally. In fact, they look terrible. Here is the updated chart:
Party 2010 2008 2006
Dem 36.5% 45.6% 43.6%
Ind 14.3% 17.1% 15.4%
Rep 49.2% 37.3% 41.0%
Yes, you’re reading that right. Republicans are outperforming 2008 by 12 points.
Already, 2.2 million votes have been cast — perhaps not half of what will be cast overall, but not too far from it. And bear in mind, this is a state with 4.6 million registered Democrats and only 4 million registered Republicans (plus 2.2 million independents). Something big might be happening down there — it’s at least clear that the state GOP has been working on its early vote operation.
Not fatal, but not good news for Alex Sink, the Democratic nominee in the close governor’s race. Also not good news for Democratic Reps. Alan Grayson, Suzanne Kosmas, Ron Klein, or Allen Boyd. Nor for Joe Garcia, the Democratic nominee for the open 25th Congressional District in South Florida.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/early-voting-is-over-in-fla-and-dems-still-trail-badly-106420063.html#ixzz1442pphcr>Florida

[JM Hanes]

Jim Ryan:

"You better vote."

I think you're preaching to the choir here, Jim!

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

Obama was nothing but the "fad" of the moment,

Yeah Sara...on the other thread (The eyes of Texas) jimmyk was pointing out Obama's cult of personality & how people had grown tired of him. I thought the same thing that you just posted....for young people Obama was just the "in" thing. They have now moved on.

[narciso]

I think the tidal wave is underway with such numbers

[ShyAsrai]

not gonna count my chickens - i'm too afraid of conservatives being too confident and not bothering to vote.

[JM Hanes]

Absolutely, Clarice! I'd be pleased as punch if you used it.

[Clarice]

Thanks JMH. I'll send it in. Of course, I have no say as to whether or when it's posted.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

O'Donnel ad they forgot to air here.

If you want to know what this election is all about, watch this less than 30-minutes political ad of why this election is so important.

Although the video highlights Delaware and Christine O’Donnell, it is just a sampling of what is going on all around the country with our economic state in this country.

[Porchlight]

not gonna count my chickens - i'm too afraid of conservatives being too confident and not bothering to vote.

I just don't see any conservative passing up the chance to vote - if nothing else for the joy of it. In another year, overconfidence might depress turnout, but not this one.

I'm afraid I counted my chickens long ago so I can't pretend to be wise on that score.

[sbw]

- - - Doing my part to row this thread onto the next non-italic page . . .

Stroke!

Stroke!

[Clarice]

Weekly Standard:

Rasmussen's final pre-election poll on the repeal of Obamacare shows that independents favor repeal by the colossal margin of 45 points (70 to 25 percent). Likely voters on the whole favor repeal by a margin of 22 points (58 to 36 percent), men favor repeal (55 to 39 percent), women favor repeal (61 to 34 percent), every age-group favors repeal (with those in their 30s favoring it by the largest margin), and even 26 percent of Democrats favor repeal.

[sbw]

[[not gonna count my chickens]]

Your chickens, dey belong to da gummint.

[Clarice]

Ct:

CAPITOL REPORT BATTLEGROUND TRACKING POLL: CALIGIURI by 9 over MURPHY..

CALIGIURI OPENS UP LEAD ON MURPHY

Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri has opened a lead outside the margin of error and appears poised to defeat incumbent Congressman Chris Murphy. A four day tracking poll of 911 likely voters in the Fifth Congressional District shows Caligiuri inching past the 50% threshold. He now leads 51.5-43.8 with with just 4.7% undecided. The poll was conducted October 28-31 by the Merriman River Group and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

"With 24 hours to go, it appears that Congressman Murphy needs a resurgent Democratic turnout rivaling 2008 in order to hold his seat," said poll director Matthew Fitch. "Murphy has run a strong campaign, but tough national headwinds and a faltering top of the ticket in his district have put his seat in jeopardy. Most troubling for Murphy is that Caligiuri has gradually improved his standing each night. The tea party continues to be a factor beyond their relative size. While only 14% of voters identify themselves as tea party supporters, those who do are supporting Caligiuri by a staggering 88-9 margin. The President's approval rating in the Fifth of 43% positive and 54% negative may be the best predictor of the final result.'

[JM Hanes]

ShyAsrai:

I was worried about Republican enthusiasm skewing the early vote, till daddy polled the folks here. It sounds like most of us have been waiting to vote till Tuesday, so I'm crossing my fingers that the wave will only really begin to crest tomorrow. I'll sure be glad to hear the last of "Don't get cocky," won't you?

[JM Hanes]

Don't worry, Clarice. I won't hold my breath -- not that I have any breath left to hold at the moment.

[Clarice]

JMH, I've seen voters staying home after the launch of lying October surprises too often to regard the "don't get cocky" warning untoward. Maybe voters are wising up.

[Threadkiller]

To help rool the thread to a new page I give you http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXSQ5BX6YXg "> Zell:
">http://www.americanrhetoric.com/images/zillmillerrnc3.jpeg">

Since I last stood -- Thank you very much.
Since I last stood in this spot, a whole new generation of the Miller family has been born: Four great grandchildren. Along with all the other members of our close-knit family -- they are my and Shirley's most precious possessions. And I know that's how you feel about your family also. Like you, I think of their future, the promises and the perils they will face. Like you, I believe that the next four years will determine what kind of world they will grow up in. And like you, I ask which leader is it today that has the vision, the willpower, and, yes, the backbone to best protect my family?
The clear answer to that question has placed me in this hall with you tonight. For my family is more important than my Party. There is but one man to whom I am willing to entrust their future and that man's name is George W. Bush.
In the summer of 1940, I was an eight-year-old boy living in a remote little Appalachian valley. Our country was not yet at war, but even we children knew that there were some crazy men across the ocean who would kill us if they could. President Roosevelt, in a speech that summer, told America "all private plans, all private lives, have been in a sense repealed by an overriding public danger."
In 1940 Wendell Wilkie was the Republican nominee. And there is no better example of someone repealing their "private plans" than this good man. He gave Roosevelt the critical support he needed for a peacetime draft, an unpopular idea at the time. And he made it clear that he would rather lose the election than make national security a partisan campaign issue. Shortly before -- Shortly before Wilkie died he told a friend, that if he could write his own epitaph and had to choose between "Here lies a President" or "Here lies one who contributed to saving freedom", he would prefer the latter.
Where are such statesmen today? Where is the bi-partisanship in this country when we need it most? Today -- Today at the same time young Americans are dying in the sands of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan, our nation is being torn apart and made weaker because of the Democrat's manic obsession to bring down our Commander-in-Chief. What has happened to the Party I've spent my life working in? I can remember when Democrats believed it was the duty of America to fight for freedom over tyranny. It was Democratic President Harry Truman who pushed the Red Army out of Iran, who came to the aid of Greece when Communists threatened to overthrow it, who stared down the Soviet blockade of West Berlin by flying in supplies and saving the city.
Time after time in our history, in the face of great danger, Democrats and Republicans worked together to ensure that freedom would not falter. But not today. Motivated more by partisan politics than by national security, today's Democratic leaders see America as an occupier, not a liberator.
And nothing makes this Marine madder than someone calling American troops occupiers rather than liberators. Tell that -- Tell that to the one-half of Europe that was freed because Franklin Roosevelt led an army of liberators, not occupiers. Tell that to the lower half of the Korean Peninsula that is free because Dwight Eisenhower commanded an army of liberators, not occupiers. Tell that to the half a billion men, women and children who are free today from Poland to Siberia, because Ronald Reagan rebuilt a military of liberators, not occupiers.
Never in the history of the world has any soldier sacrificed more for the freedom and liberty of total strangers than the American soldier. And, our soldiers don't just give freedom abroad, they preserve it for us here at home. For it has been said so truthfully that it is the soldier, not the reporter, who has given us the freedom of the press. It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us freedom of speech. It is the soldier, not the agitator, who has given us the freedom to protest. It is the soldier who salutes the flag, serves beneath the flag, whose coffin is draped by the flag who gives that protester the freedom he abuses to burn that flag. No one should dare to even think about being the Commander in Chief of this country if he doesn't believe with all his heart that our soldiers are liberators abroad and defenders of freedom at home.
But don't waste your breath telling that to the leaders of my Party today. In their warped way of thinking America is the problem, not the solution. They don't believe there's any real danger in the world except that which America brings upon itself through our clumsy and misguided foreign policy. It is not their patriotism -- it is their judgment that has been so sorely lacking. They claimed Carter's pacifism would lead to peace -- they were wrong. They claimed Reagan's defense buildup would lead to war -- they were wrong. And no pair has been more wrong, more loudly, more often than the two Senators from Massachusetts, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry. Together, Kennedy/Kerry have opposed the very weapons systems that won the Cold War and that are now winning the war on terror.
Listing all the weapon systems that Senator Kerry tried his best to shut down sounds like an auctioneer selling off our national security. But Americans need to know the facts.
The B-1 bomber, that Senator Kerry opposed, dropped 40% of the bombs in the first six months of [Operation] Enduring Freedom.
The B-2 bomber, that Senator Kerry opposed, delivered air strikes against the Taliban in Afghanistan and Hussein's command post in Iraq.
The F-14A Tomcats, that Senator Kerry opposed, shot down Khadafi's Libyan MIGs over the Gulf of Sidra.
The modernized F-14D, that Senator Kerry opposed, delivered missile strikes against Tora Bora.
The Apache helicopter, that Senator Kerry opposed, took out those Republican Guard tanks in Kuwait in the Gulf War.
The F-15 Eagles, that Senator Kerry opposed, flew cover over our Nation's Capital and this very city after 9/11.

I could go on and on and on: Against the Patriot Missile that shot down Saddam Hussein's scud missiles over Israel; against the Aegis air-defense cruiser; against the Strategic Defense Initiative; against the Trident missile -- against, against, against. This is -- This is the man who wants to be the Commander in Chief of our U.S. Armed Forces?! U.S. forces armed with what -- spitballs?!
Twenty years of votes -- Twenty years of votes can tell you much more about a man than twenty weeks of campaign rhetoric. Campaign talk tells people who you want them to think you are. How you vote tells people who you really are deep inside. Senator Kerry has made it clear that he would use military force only if approved by the United Nations. Kerry would let Paris decide when America needs defending. I want Bush to decide! John Kerry, who says he doesn't like outsourcing, wants to outsource our national security. That's the most dangerous outsourcing of all. This politician wants to be leader of the free world. Free for how long?
For more than twenty years, on every one of the great issues of freedom and security, John Kerry has been more wrong, more weak, and more wobbly than any other national figure. As a war protestor, Kerry blamed our military. As a Senator, he voted to weaken our military. And nothing shows that more sadly and more clearly than his vote this year to deny protective armor for our troops in harms way, far-away.
George W. Bush understands that we need new strategies to meet new threats. John Kerry wants to re-fight yesterday's war. President Bush believes we have to fight today's war and be ready for tomorrow's challenges. President Bush is committed to providing the kind of forces it takes to root out terrorist -- no matter what spider hole they may hide in or what rock they crawl under. George W. Bush wants to grab terrorists by the throat and not let them go to get a better grip. From John Kerry, they get a "yes-no-maybe" bowl of mush that can only encourage our enemies and confuse our friends.
I first got to know George W. Bush when we served as governors together. I admire this man. I am moved by the respect he shows the First Lady, his unabashed love for his parents and his daughters, and the fact that he is unashamed of his belief that God is not indifferent to America. I can identify with someone who has lived that line in "Amazing Grace," "Was blind, but now I see," and I like the fact that he's the same man on Saturday night that he is on Sunday morning. He is not a slick talker but he is a straight shooter, and where I come from deeds mean a lot more than words. I have knocked on the door of this man's soul and found someone home, a God-fearing man with a good heart and a spine of tempered steel -- the man I trust to protect my most precious possession: my family.
This election will change forever the course of history, and that's not any history. It's our family's history. The only question is how. The answer lies with each of us. And like many generations before us, we've got some hard choosing to do.
Right now the world just cannot afford an indecisive America. Fainthearted, self-indulgence will put at risk all we care about in this world. In this hour of danger our President has had the courage to stand up. And this Democrat is proud to stand up with him.
Thank you.
God Bless this country and God Bless George W. Bush.

[Threadkiller]

rool = roll