How Much Of A Rout?

If my onservative readers are having trouble becoming irrationally exuberant about tomorrow's elections, Nate Silver of the NY Times suggests five reasons the polls may be underestimating the likely Republican tsunami.  Let's be clear - he is identifying arguments, not advocating for them, and he has no doubt weighed these issues before forecasting a Republican pick-up of 53 seats in the House.  Put another way, this is the short list of excuses pollsters will offer if Republcans shock the experts and gain 65 or 70 seats.

Still, your mileage may vary - some of these arguments may resonate more strongly with you than with grizzled professionals such as Larry Sabato, who predicts a Rep pick-up of 55 seats.  My personal favorite is this:

5. Likely voter models could be calibrated to the 2006 and 2008 elections, which were unusually good for Democrats. In addition to wrongly excluding some Republican “unlikely voters” (see Point No. 2), it’s also conceivable that some likely voter models based on past voting histories are overrating the propensity of Democrats to vote. The reason could be that some of them are based on past voting history, and a common question is whether the voter had participated in the last two elections.

But the last two elections — 2006 and 2008 — were good ones for Democrats, one in which there was little if any “enthusiasm gap,” or it may even have favored Democrats. This is, in fact, quite atypical: Republicans usually do have a turnout advantage, especially in midterm elections. Their demographics are older and whiter, and whites aged 50 and up are the most reliable voters. If likely voter models are benchmarked to 2006 and 2008 patterns, therefore, they could underestimate the turnout gap, giving too much credit to Democrats who voted in 2006 or 2008 but who don’t ordinarily. Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics makes a nice version of this argument.

With anti-war fervor in 2006 and Barack Fever in 2008, Dems will have a lot of supporters scored by pollsters as "likely voters" because they showed up for the last two elections.  Now we have an escalation in Afghanistan and Barack Fever seems to have broken, so those likely voters are likely to stay home come judgment day.

If the over-under is at 54 for the House, I say bet the over.

Comments

[DebinNC]

To help roll the thread to a new page I give you..."Maybee! Come back, Maybee!

[centralcal]

Janet has her Slurpee t-shirt and I have my Slurpee cup all ready for tomorrow night.

When I went to the 7-11 counter with the empty cup, the gal at the register peeks into it and says with quizzical eyes, "do you need some help?" No, no - I just want an empty cup. Still looking puzzled, she asks what I want it for and can she help me in any way? She Indian and her English is thickly accented, so speaking very slowly, I said: "Well, President Obama is always talking about the car in the ditch, and how folks are standing on the side of the road, fanning themselves and sippin' on a Slurpee. I want an empty cup for election night so that I can sip my cocktails from it."

Grinning, broadly, she says, "Oh. For election night! Okay - you can it for free."

[Clarice]

JMH, it is a fabulous post. I just never know how much time the editors have at this time of day nor the breaking stuff rolling in ahead of us.

[centralcal]

uh, TK - it is not the length of a comment, but the number of comments, that initiates a new page!!!!

[Rob Crawford]

Your chickens, dey belong to da gummint.

Molon labe.

[centralcal]

lol - I notice that my slurpee story was written in poor English and with bit of an accent too! ::eyeroll::

[DebinNC]

Great story, cc.

[Threadkiller]

Ccal, I had no idea. Sorry. I guess rool should have been drool, instead of roll. Next time should I split Zell Miller into 20 separate posts? ;-)

It is a great you tube for reminiscing.

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

Great story centralcal! Extraneus - who pointed out the t-shirt link - will be in a Slurpee t-shirt too. Very fun.

[mockmook]

Oooooh

Clarice, according to Nate Silver at NYT, Caligiuri wins when at least 76 seats flip.

[centralcal]

Oh, on another comment thread that I was too busy for, their was quite a lot of back and forthing about Palin and her "reality show" as Karl Rove put it and some here agreed with.

I had seen Sarah address the subject quite strongly with Chris Wallace, but I was pressed for time and didn't chime in on that thread. Today I see Politico - who we all know just loves to bash Palin - has clarified the category the show is considered to be:

Laurie Goldberg, the senior vice president of communications at Discovery Communications, said the show was not being marketed as a reality show.

"We define the show as a docu-series, because it is a documentary series about Alaska, and Palin's relationship with it," she said.

Politico goes on to say that Rove calling the series "a reality show" - with all the "Jersey Shore" trashiness that term carries with it today - smacks of the same classism that hovers behind many of the GOP establishment attacks on Palin.

[Barbara]

Centralcal - What a great story! I sent it to my sisters.

"Next time should I split Zell Miller into 20 separate posts? ;-)"

TK - I made that same mistake myself. :-)

I really enjoyed reading Miller's speech! Thanks.

[centralcal]

Just saw this at Weasel Zippers (which they got at NRO):

Nancy Pelosi’s numbers among independents according to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll are almost unbelievably bad–8% favorable, 61% unfavorable.

I hope a lot of Independents turn out to vote!

[Extraneus]

Isn't Jersey Shore the #1 show on TV these days?

(Thanks for the cup idea, cc! I'll have to get out to a 7/11 tomorrow.)

[centralcal]

Barbara - you made me blush - I hope you fixed it for missing words, etc. before sending!!

[Porchlight]

Clarice, according to Nate Silver at NYT, Caligiuri wins when at least 76 seats flip.

Well all righty then.

Sort of along those lines, I saw this comment on HotAir last week:

My local candidate in NJ-6 is always at around 100 on the lists, and I know Anna Little is going to beat Frank Pallone like a drum. So I figure if Anna wins, the 99 other ‘Pubbies in front of her on the list will win, too.

So I predict 100 seats, minimum. 99 if we lose Cao.

Haiku Guy on October 28, 2010 at 9:39 AM

[Porchlight]

To help roll the thread to a new page I give you..."Maybee! Come back, Maybee!

Yes, do please come back, MayBee!

And where is mr. hit and run?

[bunky]

WTF, is reid gonna win?

[Barbara]

Centralcal -

I added a [have], but the story is great just as it is. :-)

[Threadkiller]

Found the "ditch" that Filner ran into.

Popaditch

">http://popaditchforcongress.com/images/NickinRiverside.gif">

vs.

">http://www.tappininsocal.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/What-happens-when-you-try-to-debate-Nick-Popaditch.jpg">

">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNlhcFRQ85I&feature=related"> Debate highlights

">http://popaditchforcongress.com/biography.html"> Website

WE THE PEOPLE CANDIDATE
Nick Popaditch is a retired U.S. Marine campaigning for Congress in the 51st district running against incumbent Bob Filner (D). Understanding and believing in duty to country and his community, Nick is redeploying once again to serve and protect the liberties that make this nation truly exceptional.

[Barbara]

Bunky -

Real Clear Politics has Angle ahead with a +2.7 lead based on an average of three polls. They added this analysis of the race on 10/29/10:

"Angle has managed to pull into a fairly steady four-point lead here, with some pollsters seeing an even larger lead among those who have already voted. Either candidate could win here, but Angle is the favorite going into the closing weekend."

[bunky]

Clarice: as you know I don't think O'Donnell has a shot; she'll lose by 6 points. If she does win, I will wear a moo moo on the steps of the Supreme Court for penance.

[Gmax]

Magic number is 79 ladies and germs. That is the number required to mirror image the current house, dropping the Democrats down to 178 seats. Lets run roughshod over them for awhile and let them lament.

[Danube of Thought]

In this household, the first Martini will be poured when the first poll closes. As far as I can tell, that will be at 1630 PDT, when they close in some parts of Indiana. If anyone knows of an earlier one, by all means please step forward.

[Frau Stimmzettel]

Welcome back to La-La Land, DoT.

And thanks for Zell-Time, Threadkiller. Some of my family left his part of northern Georgia ten years after the Recent Unpleasantness. It was Zell's home that Jane Fonda insulted in a speech to the UN in which,as I recall, she called the infant mortality rate in northern Georgia worse than many third world countries.
Well, Zell could go "own and own and own" and I wouldn't mind.

[Extraneus]

The Republicans deserve this:

“I’m not my party’s nominee right now. In a way, that’s really very liberating – to know that I’m going back, truly representing all of Alaska’s interests, not necessarily just my party.”

If they'd have stripped her seniority, it would have been in the bag for Miller. Now, when he wins, he won't have any reason to be loyal to them.

[matt]

aren't you supposed to wait until the sun is over the yardarm, DoT? But then, it's always over the yardarm somewhere.

[Gmax]

Ex

I think you are reading that one wrong from where I sit. More than a few loyal Republicans who were thinking they were picking between two Republicans will recoil at that bit of honesty ( playing to the Democrat voter crowd, you pick ). I think if it was tight, and she was already going to struggle to match poll results as a write in, then she just handed it to Joe Miller. The entitled can just keep their traps shut, which is not an endearing trait.

[Clarice]

I read today that Lisa's campaign manager said if she wins she definitely will caucus with the Republicans. i expect she gave them her word on that when they didn't strip her of her committee position. OTOH she lost and then ran again any way so what's her word worth?

SAN FRANCISCO -- A federal appeals court has indefinitely extended its freeze on a judge's order halting enforcement of the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy. A three-judge panel of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Monday granted the government's request for a stay while it challenges the trial court's ruling that the ban on openly gay service members is unconstitutional. The same panel imposed a temporary hold keeping "don't ask, don't tell" in place last week.

[Gmax]

the entitled can NOT

have pitied on the typing challenged boy!

[Gmax]

pity

SHEESH

[Extraneus]

6:00 PM Eastern, Danube.

[Threadkiller]

DoT, maybe you should start when the polls open.

[Extraneus]

what's her word worth?

Good point. Nothing.

[centralcal]

I think I am coming down with something - feverish, ache in every joint, so I came home early from work.

I better be well enough to sit in front of the tv and computer tomorrow night!!!!! Plus, well enough to drink Manhattan's from my spiffy new Slurpee cup. lol.

[Sue]

My youngest daughter camped out at The Ballpark in Arlington this afternoon to see if she could scalp a ticket. She did and is inside the stadium in her seat. How freaking awesome is that? No cops and it was a real ticket. Go Rangers!

[macphisto]

won't there be a territory in the Pacific somewhere that finishes voting at 4AM tomorrow morning PDT?

[Sue]

Oops. Wrong thread.

[macphisto]

boy, i'll tell you, whatever tenterhooks are, i'm on them. it's a good thing i gave up smoking and biting my fingernails years ago.

[Extraneus]

More than a few loyal Republicans who were thinking they were picking between two Republicans will recoil at that bit of honesty

The ones who were thinking this and chose against the candidate the primary voters picked should recoil at more than that in 2012.

[Frau Stimmzettel]

cc - keep the fluids handy. You must make it to the polls tomorrow. I've heard a lot of that "coming down with something" is going around. The 7-11 chalice should help before and after.

[Sue]

Hey, speaking of smoking, I quit. Haven't smoked since July 31, 2010. Which means I have gone 93 days without a cigarette. And that, my friends, is a big deal for me.

[Extraneus]

That is a big deal for anyone. Congratulations!!!

[Clarice]

JMH--It's up..
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2010/11/the_five_stages_of_democratic.html>JMH

[Ignatz Ratzkywatzky]

Wow Sue, congratulations.
And we couldn't even tell whether you were any crankier than normal. :)

[centralcal]

Congratulations, Sue!!!! I haven't been successful at quitting. Thought about Chantix, but Clarice and tv ads have kinda scared me about it.

Fear not, Frau. I voted via absentee already.

[Sue]

C-cal,

I used the patches. They really didn't keep me from wanting a cigarette that much but I was afraid I'd fall over dead if I smoked one while wearing it. I did the 3 step program. I have been off the patch and completely nicotine free for 23 days. If I can do it, anyone can. I've been smoking since I was 16 and never thought I'd give them up. My husband doesn't smoke and my daughters don't smoke. My daughter made me hide from the grandkids. It just became easier to quit.

[sbw]

Sue, proud of you. How you do it doesn't matter.

For me, when I wanted a cigarette, I waited five minutes and the feeling usually went away. I didn't give them up; they just became further apart -- like 25+ years between smokes now.

[Sue]

Ig,

My family can. Although it is getting better as my cravings are fewer and farther between.

[Janet...off the couch & sportin Tea Party chic]

Wow Sue, that IS a big deal. I'm still smokin' my brains out here in Arlington.

In 2000 when people thought society was gonna collapse when the clocks changed or something, I went out & stocked up on cigarettes & coffee. No food...no medicines...just cigarettes & coffee. :( addict

[PD]

glasater from an earlier thread: I am rooting for O'donnell certainly and think she expresses her views well.

I'll go farther than that: I think she expresses MY views well.

And isn't that why we vote for people? So I'm hoping a lot of people in DE see through the smokescreen and see that she's run an issues campaign and that she reflects their concerns more than the bearded Marxist who flubbed the 1st Amendment.

[Sue]

sbw,

My grandfather used to say something like that. He quit before I was even born, but still reached for his cigarettes in his front pocket till the day he died.

Janet,

I was you. Do I sound like Christine O'Donnell? ::grin::

[Porchlight]

Congratulations, Sue. That is huge. Given all the stresses of the last few months of the Obama administration, especially.

And go Rangers!

[Sue]

PD,

I'm just going to remind you they elected Biden. I'm not sure they recognize issues when they see them.

Thanks Porch.

[Danube of Thought]

maybe you should start when the polls open.

Start? Hell, at that point I'll still be going.

[Pagar]

I don't know where we are putting the Texas game posts tonight, but I urge every one to read the amazing life story of Charley Pride, who just sang the National Anthem and is a part owner of the Team.
They don't sing country much better than Charley did.
LUN

[Clarice]

Congratulations, Sue, but I have to say that when I am out before the prog firing squad I plan on asking for a cigarette. (I forget how long it's been, but just remembering the stupor induced by quitting has kept me from them.)

[Jim Ryan]

Waiting for an august, learned and noble personage of Adams, Madison, and Washington's caliber to represent you in the Senate? You're going to have a long wait. Meanwhile, I will be delighted if Christine O'Donnell wins. She's a smart lady of admirable character who prefers the Constitution.

[Jim Miller]

J M. Hanes - It's fun to go back just a little further than you did. Eisenhower brought in narrow Republican majorities with him in 1952, lost them in 1954, again narrowly, and never got them back.

Truman lost Democratic majorities in 1946, got them back in 1948, and kept them in 1950,though he lost considerable ground.

[Sue]

Clarice,

I remember when you were quitting. On a beach somewhere, if I recall. And like you, if I ever have to face the firing squad, I'll ask for that last smoke myself.

[centralcal]

The patches, huh? Maybe, after the election I will give them a try. Are there any side effects I should be aware of? Many (and I do mean many) years ago all of my R.N. friends were trying to quit using the patch (no 3-step process then) and they complained of nightmares. I guess I could handle nightmares after Obama as President!!!!

[Frau Stimmzettel]

Sue, your halo with oak leaf clusters is visible all the way to the Left Coast. Congratulations.

My husband can still hear the little man in his throat who wants to light up. I've heard it's the hardest addiction to conquer.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Clarice-

If I ever face that firing squad, I intend to have that final smoke, that I gave up three years ago, but I will never light it.

I aim to bore them to death, waiting for that spontaneous combustion.

While posing bravely, of course.

[Sue]

C-cal,

The label warns of nightmares. Says to take it off at night if you experience them. I don't remember any. The only thing I noticed was a burning and itching for about 10 minutes after I put the patch on.

[Frau Stimmzettel]

Thanks, Pagar, for the Cahrley Pride link. Such are the (good) stories of our people.
Go, Rangers!

[PD]

I'm just going to remind you they elected Biden. I'm not sure they recognize issues when they see them.

Good point. Perhaps they can vote for O'Donnell as an act of atonement after seeing what they sent to the WH?

[Sue]

PD,

They should have to.

[Extraneus]

I got the gum, myself, but didn't use it. I fought it out with the idea that I'd chew the gum if I gave in. Sat in my office at around 3:00 the first day with 8 or 10 people having some sort of meeting and I just completely zoned out reading the super fine print of the folded-up medical paper in the gum box. And it was my meeting.

The first day is the hardest until the second day. Then about two weeks later is the hardest. Then about two months later. You never completely get over it, though.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Sue-

I smoked for 26 years. The trading floor breaks were the worst for me towards the end, 15 minutes, one cup of coffee, and three or four smokes.

My heart was doing flips in the middle of it. I could feel the shudders, and thought it was "nerves" and stress of the impending financial collapse I was watching.

I used Chantix, which ended the drinking (at the time) and stopped the satisfaction.

I do not recommend it for anyone.

Just keep finding something else to do. Think your way past "them".

You're doing great!

Keep it up!

[Sue]

Ex,

That's what I'm worried about. I'm not going back though. Like Clarice said, it was too hard to go through it again.

[Threadkiller]

ccal,

[Frau Stimmzettel]

Cahrley Pride and Charly Fiorina, of course!

I dread tomorrow evening. I can still feel the heartbreak of going to bed thinking algore would be in the WH when I awoke. Thank goodness,in that case, there *was* a controlling, legal authority.

[Sue]

Mel,

I'm eating pistachios. By the bagful. ::grin::

[Jane]

I quit about a decade ago using nicorette gum.

Here is the problem, I never gave up the nicorette gum - which in turn makes it quite easy to say "I think I'll smoke this week" because then I just go off and back to the gum.

It's a terrible seesaw.

[Clarice]

I keep the gum around and chew it occasionally..but no smoking.

[Sue]

Jane,

With the patch, it is a 10 week program. You start out with like 21mg for 6 weeks, then 14mg for 2 weeks then 7mg for 2 weeks. When I took my last patch off, I almost cried. It was like a crutch for me. As long as I had it on, I wouldn't smoke for fear of exploding. After I took it off, I could smoke, but was determined not to. I went the first week after the last patch with a spray bottle with water and lavendar oil. When I craved a cigarette, I sprayed myself down. I now spray myself once or twice a day. I have traded on craving for another...the smell of lavendar. ::grin::

[Danube of Thought]

Thanks for pointing out that poll info, Ext.

Also, I just love the idea of a photo-shopped group picture of all tomorrow's incumbent Dem losers. Standing there smiling on the steps of the Capitol. Think what a useful reminder it might be in two years.

[Sue]

I wish it was tomorrow night. It feels like Christmas when I was a kid. It ain't ever gonna get here.

[Porchlight]

Sue, I am just amazed that tomorrow will be Election Day. It seems like just yesterday it was six weeks out and I thought we'd never get here.

What are you all going to miss about this election season?

I am going to miss mispelling Lootsa Mercluckski's name wrong.

[Sue]

Porch,

I'm not going to miss anything. I'm ready for it to be over. Although misspelling Moocow's name has been fun.

[PDinDetroit]

Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the land...

(alright help a guy out here...)

[JM Hanes]

That was fast, Clarice! Thanks for picking it up. Looks like it's definitely a slow news night over at Drudge. Everybody's probably at home staring into their crystal balls, except for Sue, of course, and the World Series. Do you suppose it's always that way before a big election? Drudge has got a photo of the first family praying, and Reid with bowed head.... LOL!

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

the libs were a-sweatin', they had stunk up their brand.

[Sue]

...not a democrat was winning, except for Nan Fran.

[rse]

The pundits were livid that the voters were wrong

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

The chads weren't yet hanging, but the thugs took care,
In hopes that O's thugs soon would be there.

[rse]

And the Tea Parties thought the wait for 2012 too long.

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

no, my 9:10 is no good. I used thugs twice! How unprofessional.

[Jack is Back!]

Sue,

When we had our little guy 7 years ago, I went cold turkey on my cigars. It was a nightly tradition. Cigar and wine while reading outside enjoying the Floirida sunshine setting and the ocean growing dark. Not a problem. I said, "No Way" do I want my little buddy to get this habit by watching. It was simple and not hard at all. Just do it.

[Clarice]

JMH, it used to be the Lifson was the sole editor--a job that took about 70 hours week, but in those days we were in almost constant contact and I had a good idea when things would run. Now several people do it and in shifts so I can' be as sure any more when or if things will run.

[PD]

Every Dem campaign call I get tonight I'm letting run to the very end to keep them from going to the next call as long as possible.

[Jane]

I wouldn't smoke for fear of exploding.

Unfortunately I have no such fear.

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

I guess the word thug comes easily to mind with the Obama admin.! Can we fit grifter in anywhere?

[Sue]

The chads weren't yet hanging, but the thugs took care,
In hopes that O's thugs ACORN workers would soon would be there.

Now it works.

[Sue]

Jack,

I was lucky. Neither of my children picked up my nasty habit. And neither of my grandchildren have seen me smoking. Nor will they now.

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

My kids are horrified that I smoke. They would rather I be a murderer, or have an affair, or be a bank robber. Smoking is the absolute worst thing a person can do nowadays. #2 is to be overweight.
Smoking & weight seem pretty unimportant to me in the scheme of things.
smoking - #1 on my kids list, #who cares on my list.

[Sue]

Janet,

::grin::

Yippee! Nelson Cruz just saved us. For the time being.

[PDinDetroit]

Sue - I thought it was too funny that you had posted about it being just before Christmas and that poem was in my head just before logging on tonight...

[Sue]

PD,

That's how I've felt all day. Like I know what I asked Santa to bring me, but I don't know for sure if I'll get it all or not.

[PDinDetroit]

I really hope we take the US Senate back tomorrow. We can stop the train-wreck better and watch Obama squirm more...