How They Did It

Dueling puff pieces, as the Times and WSJ grease their sources and explain the Republican takeover in the House.  The gist - recruit strong candidates, raise lots of money, and scare Democrats into retiring.

Perhaps in a bid to increase the value of the movie rights, the WSJ includes this bit of suspense:

In mid-September, just when the campaign seemed to be moving inexorably toward the Republicans, they got a shock: Polls showed a distinct shift toward the Democrats. Such a tightening could be expected—it happens in nearly every campaign—but some Republicans felt deflated. NRCC staffers admitted to each other sudden doubts about getting the 39 seats needed to control the House.

Mr. Sessions wrote in an Oct. 5 memo that "Democrats will, at the very least, lose functional control of the House."

That was a far cry from the predictions by various Republicans they would retake the House by a large margin. With expectations in the stratosphere, it would be seen as a failure if they didn't win a House majority.

I can proudly say that I was never daunted!  Of course, ignorance is strength - does anyone remember the speed bump being described?  I can't link Intrade (here's hoping!), but both their prediction market and the Iowa Electronic Market show a bit of a Republican fade after Labor Day (from an 80% chance of victory back to the low 70's).

Comments

[Porchlight]

I never doubted the GOP would take the House. I do admit to higher hopes - my prediction was 80 House, 10 Senate. But I am excited by the results, despite initial disappointment in some of my wish list races. The newly-red state legislatures and many GOP governorships are a huge bonus.

The gist - recruit strong candidates, raisel lots of money, and scare Democrats into retiring.

Sounds good for 2012, too.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

TM, you said it exactly: I remember the speed bump being described. I don't know that I recall the speed bump itself, but I do recall it being described.

[Elroy Jetson]

Amen, Porch. This is only the beginning. We lost some, but lessons were learned. And we are never going to win them all anyway.
Thanks to all of you who ran under the Tea Party banner. You are true patriots.

[maryrose]

I am very happy with the results and I am encouraged about redistricting. Of course Ohio went just the way we wanted it to end up.

[anduril]

I wish I'd said this, but instead Michael Goodwin did:

Battered Bam STILL thinks he knows best

Before President Obama started talking yesterday, the question was this: Will we now see an ideologue or a pragmatist?

An hour later, the answer was clear: Yes.

He will be a pragmatist only to the extent it helps him push his ideology. If he gets a free hand again, it's off to the radical races.

COMPLETE ELECTION 2010 COVERAGE

Any hope he is a chastened president, ready to work for the majority of Americans instead of against them, is another illusion.

He told us so himself. Asked if he still thinks the health-care takeover was the right policy, he said the process was an "ugly mess," but insisted firmly, "The outcome was a good one."

There you have it. The signature policy he produced is "good," despite being unpopular, despite driving up costs and taxes, despite hindering job growth, and despite forcing companies to drop coverage or seek exemptions. Any more "good" like that and the USA will be down for the count.

Ah, quibble, quibble. Facts be damned, the guy believes what he believes.

He's a smart man and skillful politician who can certainly read election results. So, in theory at least, he knows exactly how the nation feels.

He gets it -- he just rejects it.

That explains his down-in-the-dumps demeanor. It wasn't contrition or remorse. That was self-pity.

He feels "bad" for those Dems who had the "courage" to vote with him and were defeated. If only he felt "bad" for Americans on the receiving end of his policies. Well, then he would be a different president, wouldn't he?

Still, thank heaven for small favors. He didn't pretend to be a new man or promise to be a better one, so we were spared the outrage of watching him dissemble.

Besides, if he had tried a flip-flop on what he believes, his prior statements could have been used against him. He said recently that "facts and science and argument does not seem to be winning the day all the time because we're hard-wired not to always think clearly when we're scared. And the country's scared."

Even Tuesday, as voters were going to the polls to punish his party at every level of government, he warned against "special interests" and "the politics of cynicism."

His logic is circular and self-protective. People are scared because government hasn't done enough, so he has to do more, even though people don't want more because they're too scared to know better.

Bottom line: Barack knows best.

As for dealing with the new Republican House and more balanced Senate, Obama promised negotiations on all kinds of issues and claimed he is open to new ideas. Of course, he's said all that before, usually when he's trying to convince voters he's open when his mind is, in truth, locked shut. Remember tort reform?

His 2008 campaign was brilliant for its grace notes, his professed willingness to end partisanship and work for the common good.

All that went out the window the minute he put his feet up on the Oval Office desk. "I won," he declared the first time Republicans balked at his spending binge.

We already bought his bipartisanship promises once. We shouldn't have to pay for them again.

Conventional wisdom says he now must move toward the center and deal with people who see the economy and the world in very different ways. Even if he does, can we trust him?

Yes we can, as long as we remember what Ronald Reagan said about the Soviets: Trust but verify.

[Danube of Thought]

Hell, you can't have everything. Last count I heard was a gain of 63 in the house, with a couple more possible when the smoke clears. And remember, these bastards have 23 Senate seats to defend next time. Bring it on.

[sbw]

Passing by NPR on the radio dial on my way to something better, I heard E.J. Dionne and David Brooks analyze the voters.

Brooks opined that the result was not a change of mind, but a change of voters -- that the youth, energized last time to vote by Obama,he failed to energize this time.

Brooks, apparently, thinks young people could not possibly be disillusioned by that damage they did in their ignorant swallowing of Obama's line.

BTW, how can NPR possibly consider ANYONE from the NY Times to serve as their token conservative? Oh. Nevermind. For libs, labels matter, not content.

[anduril]

This one's short and sweet:

A theme that runs with approval throughout Jonathan Alter’s review of recent books on modern “liberalism” is that “liberals,” in contrast to their mindless Cro-Magnon opposites, overflow with ideas (“The State of Liberalism [1],” Oct. 24).

Indeed they do. But these ideas are almost exclusively about how other people should live their lives. These are ideas about how one group of people (the politically successful) should engineer everyone else’s contracts, social relations, diets, habits, and even moral sentiments.

Put differently, modern “liberalism’s” ideas are about replacing an unimaginably large multitude of diverse and competing ideas – each one individually chosen, practiced, assessed, and modified in light of what F.A. Hayek called “the particular circumstances of time and place [2]” – with a relatively paltry set of ‘Big Ideas’ that are politically selected, centrally imposed, and enforced not by the natural give, take, and compromise of the everyday interactions of millions of people but, rather, by guns wielded by those whose overriding ‘idea’ is among the most simple-minded and antediluvian notions in history, namely, that those with the power of the sword are anointed to lord it over the rest of us.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux

[Captain Hate]

Of course Ohio went just the way we wanted it to end up.

Ohio undergoes periodic mood swings when it reacts to Repub idiots *cough* Taft *cough* and temporarily puts some jackhole like Twitch or Celeste in until they remember why they hate them and their ilk and revert to fairly conservative form. Next up is putting a target right on the sunken chest of Sherrod Brown.

[DebinNC]

Charlie Rose had Brooks and Chris Matthews on last night to discuss the election. Brooks' tingle seemed even more intact than Chrissy's.

[JM Hanes]

Real Clear Politics Generic Congressional Average has your speed bump right here:

Those last two Democratic blips were around Sept. 30th and Oct. 26th. It does look like the Dems weren't just making it up, but I certainly don't remember hearing anything about that trough in the "tightening."

Interesting that despite the Republican hype, those numbers didn't really start taking off till the beginning of July.

As a tech note, I've found that 5" is usually the safest width for graphics that won't get cut off on the side. Sometimes it actually works better than pasting something a little narrower.

[bolitha]

The thing I love most about the election is ALL those Republican governors!

[hit and run]

JMH:
As a tech note, I've found that 5" is usually the safest width for graphics that won't get cut off on the side.

400 pixels.

[Neo]

This is all based on that one string of "bad" Gallup polls that had the generic vote switch to the Democrats

[JM Hanes]

hit & run:

I usually stick with 360 pixels, because for reasons that I've never been able to divine, TypePad sometimes takes a whack at the larger size -- even when a graphic looks fine in Preview.

[hit and run]

I haven't noticed problems with 400 -- but then again mine are usually photoshops where in losing a few pixels generally does no appreciable harm.

[Dave (in MA)]

http://wwwimage.cbsnews.com/images/2010/11/03/image7016857g.jpg>
http://wwwimage.cbsnews.com/images/2010/11/03/image7016857g.jpg>http://wwwimage.cbsnews.com/images/2010/11/03/image7016857g.jpg
Wasn't that a Star Trek episode? What's the significance, CBS?

[jimmyk]

Brooks opined that the result was not a change of mind, but a change of voters

As if those two things have nothing to do with each other. And this guy is supposed to be smart?

[jorgxmckie]

My God!!, am I tired of people *still* telling me how F'n smart Obama is. Really? I'd like to see the least bit of actual evidence.

Nothing's he's said in the past couple of days demonstrates more than a reflexive view of the world, evidently based on whatever crud he's had his head filled with by those with whom he has associated most in his past.

And I suspect the change beginning in July was when a lot of people looked up, noticed an election coming and then realized that there were actual choices out there. The Tea Parties won't get nearly enough credit for that.

[jorgxmckie]

Oh, and I think anyone who expected more change from Obama than a modest one in actual speech hasn't been paying much attention, either.

He's starting to make Jimmy Carter look really good.

I saw somewhere someone asking if he would react to the election more like Truman or Clinton. I like to gagged. Obama has the "smarts" of neither [and Truman was an old ward heeler] nor the humanity, even given Bill's gross narcissism. Sheesh.

Teh Won is impermeable. Head like granite.

[Frau Spatz]

"Let That Be Your Last Battlefield" 1969 - If only the United States had Frank Gorshin for President, things might be better. Of course I had to use my Star Trek Concordance; narciso would have had had it in his copious memory banks.

Significance? Barry's (good) paternal half brings liberal goodness while his (bad) maternal half brings Republican meanness.

[DebinNC]

Obama has the "smarts" of neither

Did Obama mean "revisit" when he said yesterday that we shouldn't "relitigate the past"? What litigation has occurred that Obama wants us to not relitigate?

[Frau Spatz]

jorgxmckie - I agree. Where's the beef smarts? Heck, if he only had the judgment we were promised.

[Frau Spatz]

I guess I just struck out!
Ouch!

[Frau Spatz]

I'm glad it wasn't italics. That really sets off the bells.

[jimmyk]

Fixed? (In IE.)

[Frau Spatz]

There's not much more to be said about Obama's brain power. It just isn't there. Remember Adlai "Egghead" Stevenson? He was so smart he even forgot to have his shoe repaired. Later, we heard his college record was locked away to protect his image. Eisenhower was the clod and Stevenson was the intellectual giant.

[Frau Spatz]

DebinNC - Litigation? Obama's BC? Perhaps the NBP? The GM stockholders?

[Frau Spatz]

SOB-
On stardate 5730.2, the Enterprise is on a mission to help decontaminate the polluted atmosphere of the planet Ariannus when sensors track a Federation shuttlecraft reported stolen from Starbase 4. The craft is disabled and brought aboard along with its strange alien pilot who is found injured and taken to sickbay. The man later awakens and identifies himself as Lokai — a political refugee from the planet Cheron who requests asylum. Lokai's most striking feature is that his skin is half black and half white, the two halves split perfectly down the center of his body. His unique physiology is explained by Mr. Spock as possibly being "one of a kind".
SOB

[bgates]

am I tired of people *still* telling me how F'n smart Obama is

It's beginning to sound so bizarre to hear that assertion. For years it sounded wrong, but now it's like hearing Ben Stein described as the world's greatest living Sumo wrestler.

[Frau Spatz]

SOB
Shortly thereafter, sensors detect another spacecraft in fast pursuit of the Enterprise. Curiously, the craft remains invisible to all but sensors and sets itself on a direct collision course with the ship. Moments later, Spock reports the invisible craft has disintegrated and deposited an "alien presence" aboard the ship. Kirk turns to see the alien pilot who has beamed himself directly to the bridge. The second alien identifies himself as Bele.

Like Lokai, Bele is half black and half white, with the color divided by a line through the exact center of his face. However, the sides of Bele's black and white skin are reversed from those of Lokai, a difference which seems inconsequential to the Enterprise crew but of great importance to Bele, Lokai, and, apparently, their civilization. The difference is pointed out by Bele to a perplexed Captain Kirk who asks what is the difference between them, to which he replies, "Isn't it obvious? Lokai is white on the right side. All his people are white on the right side."
SOB

[Frau Spatz]

bgates, And he is surrounded by other similar individuals. What talent does Geithner have which propelled him to his lofty positions - other than his father?

[glasater]

Nice exchange between Newt and Greta regarding BOzo:

A Link Dennis Miller likes

Not endorsing Newt for anything especially prez here:-)

[Frau Spatz]

SOB - Star Trek Moral:

...the two aliens find the planet's population completely wiped out by a global war fueled by insane racial hatred. Both Lokai and Bele stare silently at the destruction on the monitor and realize they are the only ones left of their race (or, as they see it, their races).

Instead of calling a truce, the two beings begin to blame each other for the destruction of the planet and a physical brawl ensues. As the two aliens fight, their innate powers radiate, cloaking them with an energy aura that threatens to damage the ship. With no other choice, Kirk sadly allows the two aliens to chase each other down to their obliterated world to decide their own fates, consumed by their now self-perpetuating mutual hate.

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

am I tired of people *still* telling me how F'n smart Obama is

"It's beginning to sound so bizarre to hear that assertion."

I think the whole Obama brand jumped the shark for EVEN Obama supporters when he won the Nobel Peace Prize. The libs still respect the Nobel Peace Prize...even they couldn't figure out why Obama would have won. It HAD to be a light bulb moment for some of them. The insane adoration for...what??? ...what had he ever done???

[Neo]

In the past, only Democrats have been able to wipe their ass with Trent Lott and Lindsey Graham, but now, thanks to Crapsalot Industries™, you can too!

[Neo]

Expect to see this clip over and over again for the next 2 years

[macphisto]

the CBS News Obama image reminds me of the Indians--i forget the tribe, my back brain wants to say Cheyenne?--who painted their captives/criminals half-black/half-white divided down the center before executing them.

of course, if Fox did it, it'd be raaaaaaaaaacist.

[Clarice]

The Washington Post gets around to noticing the Reps will be in position to draw about half of the new districts, a four to one advantage over the Dems.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/redistricting/gop-can-draw-nearly-half-of-ne.html>How big is big?

[Rick Ballard]

Clarice,

The entertaining part is their neglect in assessing the impact of Black Flight from Blue Hell wrt both the Proglodyte Caucus and the Black Caucus. Will they be drawing lots or straws? Casting dice?

Or will it be straightforward assassination and vendetta?