They Should Have Been Able To See This Coming

Social science descends into self-parody:

Journal’s Paper on ESP Expected to Prompt Outrage

By BENEDICT CAREY

One of psychology’s most respected journals has agreed to publish a paper presenting what its author describes as strong evidence for extrasensory perception, the ability to sense future events.

The decision may delight believers in so-called paranormal events, but it is already mortifying scientists. Advance copies of the paper, to be published this year in The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, have circulated widely among psychological researchers in recent weeks and have generated a mixture of amusement and scorn.

The paper describes nine unusual lab experiments performed over the past decade by its author, Daryl J. Bem, an emeritus professor at Cornell, testing the ability of college students to accurately sense random events, like whether a computer program will flash a photograph on the left or right side of its screen. The studies include more than 1,000 subjects.

Some scientists say the report deserves to be published, in the name of open inquiry; others insist that its acceptance only accentuates fundamental flaws in the evaluation and peer review of research in the social sciences.

“It’s craziness, pure craziness. I can’t believe a major journal is allowing this work in,” Ray Hyman, an emeritus professor of psychology at the University Oregon and longtime critic of ESP research, said. “I think it’s just an embarrassment for the entire field.”

Embarrassing?  Really?  One of the experiments illustrated the power of porn:

In another experiment, Dr. Bem had subjects choose which of two curtains on a computer screen hid a photograph; the other curtain hid nothing but a blank screen.

A software program randomly posted a picture behind one curtain or the other — but only after the participant made a choice. Still, the participants beat chance, by 53 percent to 50 percent, at least when the photos being posted were erotic ones. They did not do better than chance on negative or neutral photos.

“What I showed was that unselected subjects could sense the erotic photos,” Dr. Bem said, “but my guess is that if you use more talented people, who are better at this, they could find any of the photos.”

Hmm.  My guess is that if you test enough people for enough things, something will emerge as significant at some statistical threshold.  But that is an obvious objection my Psychic Powers assure me they address.

Comments

[Danube of Thought]

I expect a high percentage of the foresee global warming.

[MarkO]

I knew you were going to say all of that.

[clarice]

DoT, you devil. You beat me to it.

[There's nothing else that matters- only money. In the sweat of your face shall you eat bread.]

Tell me something I can't learn from the Treasure of the Sierra Delphi.
===============

[Thomas Collins]

I predict that black rice will be 2011's overhyped cure-all food, and that at some point in 2011, TM will start a thread based on some research study supposedly showing that the anti-occidental (or is that oxidant) power of black rice is the bomb.

[I R A Darth Aggie]

You must learn the ways of the Force, my young Jedi apprentice.

[The power to grab you when you can't grab back.]

Black rice, fah. A trite trendy trifling. It's black ice I'm in awe of.
=====================

[Pagar]

For those who want to foresee global warming, I recommend 3rd icebreaker sent.

[J]

I have never claimed to have esp or any other enhanced abilities, but I'll tell you, when I was younger and had better senses, I saw and knew things I don't now. Like someone either approaching or standing right behind me. Things I overheard or heard that helped me form opinions (someone entered the home, info that contributed to conclusions), saw stuff, like a truck carooming out of control headed towards me, stuff like that. Getting old is hard.

[tutlecar]

Lucifer forces you to see the future so it may be,unless you reject him,but wealth,power,presidents and lotteries make believers.The force is lucifer too, Darth joked that guy so you knew he was serving,using bodies.

[narciso]

We saw this at the opening to "Ghostbusters", it's a scam, is Peter Venkman involved.

[Watts Up with the Sun?]

I love it, Pagar: 'Ice Nip'.

Steve in the L!ink U!nder N!ame has a post about this last December being the second coldest in the many hundred year Central England Temperature record. This in the second warmest year of recent times. Yeah, it's just weather, but the climate do be a changin' and See Oh Too ain't why.
=============

[Danube of Thought]

I predict a minus 16 at Raz today.

[Thomas Collins]

My ESP senses a clash of transportation eras this weekend in Indianapolis. Lots of planes and horses bumping each other and chasing each other.

[Neo]

illustrated the power of porn

I've seen Appeals Court rulings atesting to the "power of porn"

A few examples of the "power of porn":
a) VHS beats out Beta as the dominate VCR format (because it could hold more porn, even though Beta had better quality)
b) BlueRay beats out DVD-HD as the dominate hi-def DVD format (when the largest supplier of porn selected BluRay)
b) the internet (because it could deliver it immediately)

[So Cooch is moot.]

Well, I should have seen this coming. There is now a new FOI in to the University of Virginia asking for Mann's emails, the same information that Cuccinelli is seeking in court.

I noticed a couple of weeks ago that the Univ. had admitted possession of some emails they'd originally denied having. I knew that was important because it suggested, but didn't prove, a guilty knowledge. Now, the original FOI has been renewed and must be complied with. Story at the L!ink U!nder N!ame at Watts Up.
=========

[Sue]

I foresee a long, off topic post.

Isn't it funny how scientists can sniff out a scam when it suits them?

[Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)]

Where is Man Tran? On the cruise he told us about some people who could predict something having to do with something by determining how they were leaning. They tested it in Vegas with spectacular results. I certainly believed him.

Too bad I can't remember the story.

[There is something rotten in Mann's Mark.]

Sue, what's particularly interesting about this one is the ability of some scientists to ignore the odor from the dead elephant in the room. Scientists from all around the neighborhood are starting to peer in the windows.
==========

[Rob Crawford]

Meh. Just the continued slide of the soft sciences into fetishism and irrationality. Seriously -- a 53% success rate vs an expected (long-term, infinite number of samples, ideal) 50%?

Kinda surprised they didn't get it published in a "climate" journal, really.

[Manuel Transmission]

Jane, that's about right. A bunch of those guys were DIA psychic spies from back in the 70-80s. Their schtick is called Scientific Remote Viewing. Seeing the future the weakest skill, but the immediate future, like sensing the phone about to ring is something most of us have experienced.

Why do I give 'em any credit? They are a very conservative crowd for the most part and they are doing it all on their own nickel. No gummint rent seeking.

[Thomas Collins]

Karnac senses an Insta-Launch for H&R.

[Thomas Collins]

And sure enough, H&R has been Insta-Launched. See LUN.

[narciso]

Words really have no meaning anymore, in the LUN

[Captain Hate]

The power of porn? Is that related to purportedly learned judges not being able to define it but to know it when they see it?

[Jim Ryan]

My spidey sense says this Ted Williams is back on his keister after six months. I hope I'm wrong.

[narciso]

Guess what has been discovered about that FEC complaint against Christine, in the LUN, it's deja vu all over again

[Captain Hate]

Melanie Sloan looks like she smells really bad

[Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)]

Where is Man Tran? On the cruise he told us about some people who could predict something having to do with something by determining how they were leaning. They tested it in Vegas with spectacular results. I certainly believed him.

Too bad I can't remember the story.

[Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)]

Sorry about the repost. I feel quite important being able to conjure you up Man Tran. Happy New year!

[Jim Ryan]

Just the facts, ma'am. If a scientist has evidence for ESP or past lives, then that's fine. It's on par with any other theory in science; it is to be judged on the evidence. Science is not prejudiced against seemingly supernatural phenomena. When picking which research to fund, you probably would be better off picking something more likely to work out. But, as Manuel said, if a scientist produces evidence without first begging for funding, that's great.

[jimmyk]

My spidey sense says this Ted Williams is back on his keister after six months. I hope I'm wrong.

Seems to me this Williams guy is not the only person who came from nowhere to success based mainly on the 'golden tone' of his voice. Seems to me that other one hasn't worked out so well, though I do hope he's back on his keister in two years and 14 days.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Jane-

Man Tran being incommunicado is not that surprising. I'll ask him.

[Jim Ryan]

Cap'n, you know who always looks like his blazer is a little smelly? Huckabee, that's who. I haven't seen him on the tube in a couple of years, but I remember.

[Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)]

That is a great Hit post.

The constitution is coming across a bit disjointed, altho I was quite happy with what they assigned Hoyer.

I'm shocked Anthony Weiner joined in. He is such a Weeeny.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Emily Litilla here: "Nevermind!"

[Jim Ryan]

I think it was JMHanes who explained "general welfare" in here about six months ago. Really clarified things for me. Thank you, JMH.

It's not just that the document enumerates all the things the Congress can do to promote the general welfare; it's that "general welfare" itself is a very narrow scope of purposes. The modern term "welfare" as in ("welfare state") is not within that scope.

[centralcal]

Good job, Hit!

[Rick Ballard]

Kim,

If Mann could get Bem on the Team it could open up a whole new field. Bem obviously has the firm grasp of statistics necessary for success in climatology and I see no reason why the interdisciplinary approach of Paranormal Climatology shouldn't be able to produce results fully acceptable to the IPCC.

I can't wait to see the final scene from Cucinnelli's Mann On The Run. Preferably shown before Inhofe's committee.

[Jim Ryan]

If it wasn't JMH but someone else, then thanks to that person!

[Threadkiller]

Someone went nuts, in the gallery, during the reading of the "natural born" requirement. I saw that coming.

[Porchlight]

Did they make a Dem read that part, TK? That would have been awesome.

[Jim Ryan]

Rick, down here UVa is trying to keep Mann's data under lock because, they claim, to be required to show it is to be bullied by big government. In this case, however, fraud may have been committed, and in any case demanding that a scientist show his data is not bullying. I thanked Cucinnelli in person for his efforts a couple months ago.

[narciso]

How could you tell, from the rest of the time, TK

[Manuel Transmission]

Yeah, I've been lurking these past weeks nursing a shattered wrist (strong side, natch), so typing is a bitch. Bunch of other work related issues distracting, as well.

Have a Happy New One, everybody!

[Jim Ryan]

(Note to self, when going to thank a noted politician, don't stride up to him real quick. His bodyguard will glare at you just a little bit.)

[matt]

but what about Deja Vu? And time/space travel? And how about bending spoons?

Completely wrapped up in The Ashes today. Should be done with it in 5 minutes or so.....

[Threadkiller]

It was a Dem. :-) Geez narciso, I can still tell when someone is nuttier than me.

[boris]

"If it wasn't JMH but someone else"

Perhaps Ignatz quoting Madison in Federalist 41.

[narciso]

You know what I meant, their contempt for the constitution, specially enumerated powers is profound.

[Jim Ryan]

Look, people, he was born here! Would you disclose your BC if your mom had left it blank where it says "FATHER: "?

[Rob Crawford]

but what about Deja Vu?

Their clubs are hit-or-miss.

And time/space travel?

All travel is travel through both time and space.

And how about bending spoons?

Trust me -- you need to take care where you put them in the dishwasher. The little utensils rack on the door is there for a purpose.

:-)

[Captain Hate]

Cap'n, you know who always looks like his blazer is a little smelly? Huckabee, that's who.

Don't get me started on that one. What is it about former governors of Arkansas?

[Charlie (Colorado)]

I'm a little worried about this "53 percent to 50 percent"....

[boris]

I'm with you 103% Charlie

[Threadkiller]

I knew what you meant. :-)

--"Would you disclose your BC if your mom had left it blank where it says "FATHER: "?"--

I would definitely hide it if I thought the act of hiding it would keep people from discussing my dual citizenship.

[Jim Ryan]

Boris, nope, but thanks! It was an explanation of the Founding Fathers' sense of "general welfare" itself. Pretty sure JMH. The idea was that a good is for the general welfare when it isn't practical to divide it up, have each individual enjoy his own share of it separately, and charge each individual for his share of it. National defense, for instance. Roads are in the gray area because we do have government toll roads, though that are somewhat impractical. It seems to me that a welfare net is a sort of insurance which it is practical to charge individual premiums for and to enjoy the protection of on one's own. So welfare is not in a "general welfare" good.

But JMH explained it a lot better.

[Jim Ryan]

Chance gets 50%. The test subjects got 53%.

[Danube of Thought]

I have this eerie sense that my entire screen is about to display porn.

[~FR]

...others insist that its acceptance only accentuates fundamental flaws in the evaluation and peer review of research in the social sciences.

Maybe The Lancet could hook the authors up with the statisticians who said we killed a full 2% of the Iraqi population? They could arrive at a suitably convincing 'confidence interval.'

[centralcal]

TK: Politico reports on the "Birther" in the House gallery:

A woman was arrested in the House gallery Thursday after interrupting a reading of the Constitution by yelling out her belief that President Barack Obama is not a natural born citizen of the United States.

When Frank Rep. Pallone (D-N.J.) read the part of Article II, Section 1 mandating that only a "natural-born citizen" may be president, the woman, seated in the front row of the public gallery, screamed "Except Obama, except Obama. Help us Jesus."

An officer removed her from the gallery as she yelled out "My name is Theresa."

"You're under arrest," the officer could be heard telling her as he led her through double doors at the back of the chamber.

[On the Road to Wigan Obamascus.]

I've combed both feet of my Interpreter's Bible, and nowhere does Jesus mention Obama's birthplace. Now Paul, that's a different story.
===================

[An excresence of disinformation.]

Hey, tildaFR, why does the word 'Lancet' make me want to prick a boil.
================

[anduril]

Ah, the birther thread--just what I was looking for.

A real must read today over at Naked Capitalism: NJ Public Pension Slugfest Reporting Omits 15 Years of Governors Stealing From Workers.

Yves Smith has some excellent points and, yes, one can feel some sympathy for government workers whose pension funds are being defrauded by politicians. But the big point is that the whole problem is a political one. It was the politicians who created and staffed the vast bureaucracies, and of course it was We The People who enabled it all. So maybe the biggest problem is with We The People.

Yves takes a shot at Christie, and she has a point, of course, although he's the guy who inherited the mess and he's the guy who's gotta pick the policy paths that's most likely to result in improvement in the situation. Yves' favored solution of a millionaire tax hardly appears to be the most direct path to improving the situation.

Still, there's lots of food for thought in the blog.

BTW, in a related matter, Powerline links to an interesting poll re seven (7) GOPer presidential possibles, and they come up with an idea that Yves probably won't like: CHRISTIE IN 2012?

I like this part:

Based on name recognition, Sarah Palin underperforms while Chris Christie massively overperforms. Moreover, among Republicans Christie was the favorite, preferred by 27% of respondents. No one else came close; Romney was second at 17%. Further, Christie clobbered President Obama among independents, 42-29%.

Talk about food for thought!

[Threadkiller]

"Help us Jesus" may have been "He is British".

Megan Kelly is about to have an Anchor Baby debate.

[anduril]

pick the policy paths that's that're most likely

[Danube of Thought]

Seems Nancy made l'histoire yesterday:

"With 19 Democrats withholding support from Nancy Pelosi for House speaker on Wednesday, it represented the largest defection from a party's speaker nominee in nearly a century.

"The resistance in the Democratic Party to back now-former Speaker Pelosi (D-Calif.) in the ceremonial first vote of the 112th Congress registered higher than at any point since 1913, according to data from the Congressional Research Service."

[Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet]

Did anyone catch Boehner's presser? From the little I saw, he didn't put up with any carp from the "neutral" reporters.

[larry]

DoT-I have this eerie sense that my entire screen is about to display porn.
Aww that ain't esp.First time I had a heart cath, Dr said when he was inserting the catheter, "You're going to feel a little prick." That's esp. Dismissing the study out of hand wouldn't be scientific, would it?

OT: C-130 silhouettes at LUN brought back memories.

[Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)]

Where is JMH? Has anyone heard?

[larry]

TK-Megan Kelly is about to have an Anchor Baby debate. In a few months, she'll have another anchor baby.

[Ignatz]

You didn't LUN your 1:24, larry.

[Ignatz]

--Where is JMH? Has anyone heard?--

Someone said she was commenting at, I believe, Michael Barone's blog yesterday, Jane.

[larry]

Sorry. LUN

[narciso]

She was at Michael Barone's WE thread on the younger GOP members of Congress, I was comparing the 6)th and 62nd Congress, and one sees what a wipeout it was for the GOP, back then, because of inattentive leadership like Cannon, and those who succeeded him, therein lies the lesson.

[Threadkiller]

In a few months, she'll have another anchor baby.

Ha!

[Frau Saubermachen]

Does JMH post at Belmont Club, too? Maybe she dropped out here during the "cleanup on aisle three."

[narciso]

I think I've seen her there as well.

[DrJ]

There is a poster at Belmont Club who goes by JMH, but I'd bet that is not "our" JMH. The writing style is different.

[narciso]

Meanwhile does this sound a little tapioca, in the LUN

[Pagar]

"is about to have an Anchor Baby debate"
Why are we having any debate.
Nothing makes less sense to America than the Anchor baby mess.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

because it could hold more porn, even though Beta had better quality

It wasn't a technical issue. Sony just made it hard (heh heh) for porn producers to make and copy content in the Beta format.

You'd be amazed how big a market share porn had on VCRs.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Chance gets 50%. The test subjects got 53%.

Aha. Any hints on n? What's the significance?

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Nothing makes less sense to America than the Anchor baby mess.

I agree.

All you white people go home.

[Frau Saubermachen]

" Daryl J. Bem, an emeritus professor at Cornell,"

Is that the *real* Cornell or Olbermann's alma mooter?

[clarice]

Rick, You are starting off 2011 in fine fettle.

[glasater]

All you white people go home

I'd have to go to Siberia. No thanks...

[Sweet reunion.]

Home is where they have to take you when you show up.
=============

[Guest]

Man Tran, this is how the original RV progam was funded.

"Subject: Hubbard Neutralization - confessions
Date: 24 Sep 2000 20:01:55 -0000
From: Private User
Organization: mail2news@zedz.net
Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology

SETUP

Week of Aug. 7-14 1972. CIA funds through SRI to Burlingame, CA freight company near San Fran airport. Check name Liu. Funds for safehouse and psychiatrist - CIA-Puthoff-Swann. Swann and psychiatrist fly to LA Aug 11-14. Canoga Park safehouse.

ABDUCTION

Aug. 16-17-18. Villa Laura, Tangier. Apollo going for refit. Cover - Hassan II assassination attempt. Hubbard transported as freight to US.

HUBBARD NEUTRALIZATION

Dr. Shafica Karagulla, M.D.; M.R.C.P.Ed (Member of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh; D.P.M. (Diploma in Psychological Medicine). Bad foot (like Gottlieb, who ran black op). Trained in psychiatry Univ. Edinburgh. Studied under Dr. Wilder Penfield at Montreal Neurological Institute (used brain probes on conscious subjects). Asst. Prof. Psychiatry New York Univ. "Thing" for cats. Neutralization - stereotaxic ops.

NEUTRALIZATION CONFIRMATION

By Sep. 15 1972.

CIA contract for SRI RV lab go-ahead given by Gottlieb. Contract issued Oct. 1 1972."

[But you can never leave.]

Come on in, we've a fine view.
================

[Manuel Transmission]

Whoa! guest, if you are still around, that's some weird stuff worth poking around. I was aware of (and have since met) a lot of those early guys. Hal and Russell were my early heros with their work at SRI while I toiled away at the "other" even bigger R&D shop in the midwest doing mundane real world stuff.

[narciso]

Seems to have come from this cup of crazy, the LUN, Man Tran

[Manuel Transmission]

Jeebus, narciso, that is nuts. I will have to poke around and see if anyone owns up to L. Ron being involved in the early stuff. What's interesting to me is that the earliest stuff at SRI was open research ( even Vallee and R. Bach involved with ARPA tests). It went dark pretty fast. Sometime after Swann showed up, IIRC.

[Guest]

Armstrong was just a kid then. Didn't know what was going on.

The dates are a little off. The Moroccan flight occurred in December, but he may have already been surreptitiously being drugged then, since he was complaining about unusual physical ailments. The corporate takeover was continued with agent provocateur actions to cause raids in the US and UK in '77 to bring down the sole proprietor status by '81, completed in '93 with stealth IRS receivership under the Clintons. And where did and does all the money inure to now?