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February 04, 2011

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Donald

I'm sorry, it's o/t, and it's the first post, but I gotta go to physical therapy now. Forgive me.

LUN

clarice

Ras--O -16 today.
Now, there's some good news that's real.

Ignatz

--Team Obama is miraculously lowering the unemployment rate while scarcely creating jobs--

It's not a miracle, just math, if the Team discourages 500,000 people from even looking for work.

bunky

Unexpected!

Army of Davids

Caught union lackey...er Labor Secretary Hilda Solis on CNBC this AM as she explained how to make sense of the job picture.

Here's a clue for Mrs. Solis. Look at the labor participation rate.

Since October we've had 1 million people drop out of the labor force.

I'm sure the healthcare bill has nothing to do w/ it.

clarice

I'm not sure it's all discouraged workers though. Rick keeps pointing out the overcounting of illegals in the past and the large number of self-deportations in the last two years.

Neo

SO why have I been seeing numbers like 9.8% all morning ?

LibertyAtStake

Yeah, I think @Ignatz has it right. A big lesson here is the obsolescence of the Dept of Labor models. It seems to me, in this age of ubiquitous communications, a pure household survey model could be devised that would cut be more accurate in the end.


http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com
"Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive"

Danube of Thought

The "strongly approve" number has dropped to 24%, down from 31% nine days ago.

I think the 9.8% u/e number was Gallup, which doesn't do any seasonal adjusting. Also, both Gallup (and the govt., I think) numbers are simply based on polling, although with the govt. numbers you never hear anything about sample size or MOE.

Dave (in MA)

Neo, http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/114386/>here's Instapundit's take.

Neo

Just a day after Cyclone Yasi wiped out much of north Queensland's banana plantations, Woolworths doubled the price of its bananas to nearly $6/kg.

Neo

Rasmussen at -16%

Army of Davids

Labor Force Participation Rate.

The reason for the 9% number.

Walter

I just had one of the missing drop by my office last week. His initial unemployment claim was denied, so he stopped filing. Once I explained that he needs to continue filing while his appeal is pending, he decided to file for the past couple weeks.

On a macro level, I suspect a part of this is due to the expiration that wasn't of long-term unemployment benefits at the end of last year. Quite a few of them received the letters that their benefits would end; few states made the same effort to tell them that they received a reprieve.

Melinda Romanoff

Another month's data like this and Obama, Pelosi, and Reid will have successfully unwound the economic recovery produced by the Reagan tax cuts.

The labor participation rate is the same as it was in March 1984. (64.2%)

RichatUF

Mel-

Isn't next month the birth/death adjustment?

Janet

OT (needless to say)

Melinda Romanoff

Rich-

Birth/Death model comes every month. It's part of the fudge factor.

Melinda Romanoff

Rich-

Here's the data page.

Neo

Either I'm reading this wrong or the birth/death adjustment for January is off the map. LUN

Rick Ballard

Rich,

Perhaps you're referring to the annual revision? That took place this month, with a drop in employment of 411K for March and 483K for December. 220K of the desaparecidos were Mythical Mexicans.

The employment report sucked. Natural increase requires 100K new jobs per month in order to tread water.

Neo

Effective with the release of preliminary January 2011 employment estimates in February 2011, BLS will begin updating the Current Employment Statistics (CES) net birth/death model component of the estimation process more frequently, generating birth/death factors on a quarterly basis instead of annually

RichatUF

Rick-

Thanks, I thought that the benchmark annual revision was released in Feb or March. Coffee isn't kicking in and I should have just looked at the report instead of the write up. Mostly noise, but I did see over at Drudge, Santelli was yelling at Liesman this morning.

Melinda Romanoff

Neo-

Seasonally Adjusted= -339,000
Not Seasonally Adjusted= -2,898,000

Remember, this is not an addition/subtraction figure for the non-farm payroll count of the Establishment Survey Table B-1. It is solely an adjustment factor in its statistical calculations, like adding a line in calculating an average (oversimplification alert!!).

And as Rick mentioned, this is in no way a positive development. It reinforces my thoughts on the growth of structural unemployment, and, I suspect, Rick's as well.

Melinda Romanoff

Neo-

I take that as an announcement that it will be historically revised more often. That B/D number comes out every month, it's one of the ones I watch regularly.

Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)

BTW I saw that troll that is really good friends with the Clintons and the former DNC chair (his name will come to me) on MSNBC today and he said they wanted to prolong the health care decision going to the Supremes until someone dies and Obama gets a new pick.

Ignatz

Nice editorial at IBD via RCM calling this "crony capitalism" for GE and the unions what it really is; just good old-fashioned, raw corruption.

Captain Hate

McAulliffe?

Btw, does anybody plan on watching the O'Reilly salad-tossing of Il Douche on Sunday?

Charlie (Colorado)

SO why have I been seeing numbers like 9.8% all morning ?

That was a Gallup number, done by polling.

narciso

Which one of those trolls, Janes, you need to narrow it down.

MayBee

CH- I think it's so Hugo Chavez of Obama to plant himself on our tv sets before each major sporting event.
I can't believe Fox is putting us through that, but I guess it's the one big interview they are going to get this year.

Who wants to be at a party, a bar, a party, or sitting around with family before the Super Bowl....and then have a dull interview with ANY politician? Talk about a downer.

Danube of Thought

With Ronaldus Maximus's birthday coming on Sunday, it seems like a good time for this.

Rob Crawford

CH- I think it's so Hugo Chavez of Obama to plant himself on our tv sets before each major sporting event.

His insistence on being seen reminds me of a quote:

"If there's anything bigger than my ego in here I want it caught and shot right now"--Zaphod Beeblebrox

bunky

Liesman is a bully. Thug lib ass.

daleyrocks

Global warming lowers unemployment! Shocka!

narciso

One suspects they are using Vogon accountancy
rules, Rob.

Captain Hate

Maybee, Fox has completely whored itself out for the Super Bowl (and yes, Charlie, I understand the importance of insuring ratings for it; my point is that at some point you start losing viewers on your other shows with the incessant shilling and it becomes counterproductive) which is one, but far from the only, reason I was hoping the cold weather would really screw it up. Chavez is a good comparison, particularly with the disinterest in what the other non-Schumer branches of government are doing, but I'm sticking with Rupert Pupkin.

Ignatz

Hopeless house to cut mere $32 billion from 2011 budget which is projected to be $1.5 TRILLION in deficit.
Rand Paul proposes cutting $500 billion (one third of the deficit) annually, almost all of it from useless, harmful, outdated bureaucracies like HUD and Commerce and he's the one deemed irresponsible.

michaelt

The Phoenix Open and Animal Planet's Puppy Bowl will be on my teevee until game time. I wouldn't be watching the pregame anyway, but those two blowhards don't need to know that.

Captain Hate

So the Repukes are getting cold feet now that it's time to live up to their promises? Wow, I didn't see that one coming ::rolleyes::. Smells like compassionate conservatism.

Ignatz

Doing some back of the envelope calculations, Barry and Co will only have to stimulate about another million and a half people into giving up looking for work and living in their parents' basement to reach the level of unemployment that Christina Romer warned us we would reach if Porkulus wasn't signed into law.
Another three or four million on top of that stimulated into economic oblivion and he'll have it back to where it was when he took office.

Neo

[Democratic] Lawmakers Rally Lobbyists in 'Call To Arms' For Upcoming Spending Fight
... "calling all pirate space ships"

Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)

McAulliffe?

Yup.

I'm having a superbowl party and I told people to come after the interview so I don't have to have it on. Of course I probably will, cause I'm an ass. But I didn't want to hear anyone else talk about it.

Rick Ballard

Mel,

Look on the bright side - the economy has returned to pre-crash GDP levels while employing 7.2 million fewer workers. You can file that under "chimerical ephemera", of course, but it does reflect some real productivity gains. It also reflects the fact that the $2.6 trillion of our grandchildren's money that Uncle Sugar has dumped into the bottomless pit to date hasn't done much at all.

Wrt the labor force participation rate - there are demographic factors which preclude the possibility of much of an increase in the rate until after 2020. The composition of the civilian non-institutional population is beginning to reflect the retirement of Boomers while the labor force is reflecting the baby bust. The twain just ain't gonna meet up for 10 years or so.

Danube of Thought

I think a lot of folks are making much too much of a big deal about Fox, Obama and the Super Bowl. I admire Fox--in particular, Fox News Channel--for allowing the presentation of viewpoints, and for bringing news of events, that simply do not appear on any other networks. I don't expect them to adhere rigidly to a party line or to shun, for example, and opportunity to interview a sitting president.

NK

The jobs report stinks. No new jobs (50K private-- ick) collapsing labor force participation, the only hopeful sign is the household survey has a positive-- albeit slow-- trajectory. This will foce BHO to continue the pathetic "triangulation" watch him side with the Repubs on the $32Billion cutsfor the rest of this year, and start campaigning in the Fall by saying, see budget cuts didn't help either. Pathetic. Job growth will be slow, gas and food prices are skyrocketing-- the hoi poli will not be happy when Barry O comes scrappin' and fetchin' for their votes. And yes, this shows that European structural unemployment is here with Obamacare, who will hire or even start new businesses with those obscene mandates. Obamacare is a profit killer, a jobs killer and a drag on economic growth. For what, so the DC scum can keep their perks of power. Disgusting.

Captain Hate

Of course I probably will, cause I'm an ass. But I didn't want to hear anyone else talk about it.

The only way that interview could be any good would be for O'Reilly to be kidnapped and have replacing him some of his regulars like Cavuto, Laura Ingaham and Tammy Bruce. Best television evarrrrr.

Porchlight

Hopeless house to cut mere $32 billion from 2011 budget which is projected to be $1.5 TRILLION in deficit.

Paul Ryan says it's more like $74 billion. Much of the 2011 money is already allocated and spent, so there's not as much for them to work with. The big cuts will have to wait until the 2012 budget which will be the first real budget the GOP is responsible for.

Some helpful comments here at this HotAir thread from last night:

http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2011/02/03/new-house-gop-goal-for-budget-cuts-32-billion/

Jack is Back!

Yippee!

We're on board the Veendam and the first thing I did was ask the concierge if they were bringing the Super Bowl and I was told we have it on Marine Sat, ESPN at 8:00 South Atlantic time (whatever that is) whiie at sea on our way to Stanley.

Will be updating the blog later today but was also informed that later in the cruise, when we are in the Chilean fjords, not expect any reception. I don't how thes MacMania people are going to accept that at all. We may have a little Cairo on our hands.

And you were thinking that the MacMania crowd as a bunch of Miami Vice looking techies in jeans and black T's you are sorely mistaken. My wife and I may be the youngest of the whole crowd. All retired grandparents, some in wheel chairs and most who have never heard of Gary Taube's books:)

Extraneus

That last one about the 10-yr wait was the best, DoT.

Melinda Romanoff

Point taken, Rick, but there are more than a few that will have to forgo that retirement phase.

 centralcal

Really, really O/T, but something that will bring a smile to the face of Ann (yoo hoo, where ya been, gal?), and Janet, and Sue and all others who have had it up to hear with the fawning Michelle is a fashion icon bullshit.

FishbowlDC has started a regular column to chronicle the ass kissing over Moochelle by Amy Parnes at Politico. Today in their first installment they link to this written by an African American lesbian blogger:

I would hate to be Amie Parnes and Karin Tanabe of Politico. Why? Crap like this will make them the laughingstocks of the world as soon as Barack's out of the White House.

What little suck ups the two are. Fact: Michelle Obama cannot dress for s**t. Fact: Prior to Michelle's 'fashion,' the worst outfit I ever saw was Whitney Houston's expanded maxi pad ensemble she wore as "Queen of the Night" in The Bodyguard.

Most of the suck ups have gotten wise and just don't offer opinions on Michelle's disaster choices. But Parnes and Tanabe desperately want to be remembered and, goodness, won't they be. And speaking of crack whores, from the article:

Brandon Holley, editor in chief of Lucky magazine, is sticking up for Obama. Holley told POLITICO she doesn't recall the same scrutiny of what Laura Bush wore as first lady. "What [Obama] has done for American design is incredible," Holley said, especially by bringing relatively unknown designers into prominence. "That's why I think we have no right to question her choices."

If I looked like Suzanne Sommers very ugly clone, I'm not sure anyone would see me as a voice for fashion and taste. Somehow Holley manages to fool them -- or at least Conde Naste. Whether she's wearing her iron curtain bangs or not, Holley's forever a dumpy little thing.

Amazing! Clarice will need to alert the gals at MOTUS, too.

 centralcal

ah jeez *here* not hear....

Melinda Romanoff

c-cal-

I can smell the ozone from that lightning strike, here.

MayBee

DoT- I don't expect them to adhere rigidly to a party line or to shun, for example, and opportunity to interview a sitting president.

My complaint is with the president who thinks he needs to put his mug in the proximity of the big sporting events. As if America can't celebrate and have fun without him.

Ignatz

--Look on the bright side - the economy has returned to pre-crash GDP levels while employing 7.2 million fewer workers.--

It's easy to improve productivity per worker if you cut the number of workers and then pump GDP with trillions in borrowing.
What is the private sector's share of 2007 GDP compared to the private sector's share in 2011?

Frau Steingehirn

McOffal remains a lucky FOB crook.

" ... McAuliffe's extraordinarily well-timed investment in the now-bankrupt Global Crossing, in which McAuliffe invested $100,000 and made $18 million. There has also been talk about the six-figure profit McAuliffe made for helping Prudential Insurance Company win a government contract."
Byron York's 2002 article- LUN

Janet

Thanks centralcal.

Some good news...
State health dept. to probe abortion center referred to in the LiveAction video.

from the article "...Woodruff also coaches the alleged sex traffickers on where to get an abortion that won’t be met with as much scrutiny, referring them to the New Jersey-based abortion business named Metropolitan Medical Associates, where she says “They won’t need ID then. Their protocols aren’t as strict as ours and they don’t get audited the same way we do.”"
Woodruff was the Planned Parenthood employee that has since been fired. The bolding in mine. The place sounds like Kermit Gosnell's "clinic" in Philadelphia.

Melinda Romanoff

Frau-

Doesn't that look similar to a friend of Terry's commodity trading results?

Army of Davids

I'm sure the mandates, uncertainty, taxes and new regulation put upon business via the healthcare bill have nothing to do w/ the state of the job market.

I blame China er...I blame Bush.

Neo

An Obama bundler picked for a choice ambassadorship brought the U.S. embassy she led to “a state of dysfunction” in a year on the job, a State Department probe has found.

Cynthia Stroum, who last month left her post as U.S. ambassador to Luxembourg, was “aggressive, bullying, hostile and intimidating,” the department’s inspector general said in a report released Thursday.

Sounds just like the Obama White House.

Frau Steingehirn

Of course, Mel. Just think of the gifted children the two could have produced!

Melinda Romanoff

EYE BLEACH!!!

Agggghhhh, who's got the eye bleach?!?!

caro
ah jeez *here* not hear....

CC, I really thought that you were using a new, unique JOMO style where homonyms and homophones are freely substituted,perhaps to win multiple merit badges.

Chubster Jones

AP: "It said at least four staffers quit or sought transfers to Iraq and Afghanistan during her [Cynthia Stroum] tenure, unusual steps for diplomats assigned to a modern, Western European capital."

Ha. Like Michael Scott of Dunder Mifflin, Ms. Stroum probably had to buy her own "World's Best Boss" coffee mug.

Old Lurker

Maybee: "My complaint is with the president who thinks he needs to put his mug in the proximity of the big sporting events. As if America can't celebrate and have fun without him."

Modern Bread & Circuses perhaps?

MayBee

Modern Bread & Circuses perhaps?

Ha!

I shouldn't have even said he just needs to put his mug on tv. He also has to opine and pronounce before every event. Shut up and watch the game, buddy. Whoever schedules this garbage for him doesn't get the American public.

Janet

HotAir has 3 more videos from Live Action up...filmed in Virginia. The Falls Church one has a balloon hovering behind the reception desk. Is it a "Happy Birthday from all of us" balloon? Wouldn't THAT be tragically ironic....

Neo

Making strides on that promise to close Gitmo ...

An Afghan inmate at the US prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, has collapsed and died after exercising, according to US military officials.
Awal Gul, 48, was accused of being a Taliban commander and part of the al-Qaeda network. He had been held without charges since October 2002.
Mr Gul had been using an elliptical machine, which simulates running.
Officials said Mr Gul had collapsed in the shower after using the exercise equipment.
His death remains under investigation but an autopsy suggests he died of either a heart attack or a pulmonary embolism, a military spokesman said.
... one inmate at a time.

Ranger

Another interesting thing. The Egyptian minister of defense went to the square earlier today to tell the protesters their message had been heard and it was time to go home. AJ is portraying this as showing "how weak" the government is, having to beg the protesters to stop. I take it as exactly the opposite. This was the regime telling the demonstrators 'we are not afraid of you.'

Ranger

Sorry, posted in the wrong thread.

bunky

There's a f-ing eliptical machine at Gitmo? The terrorists have won.

Frau Steingehirn

Why, oh why, does Pres. Jiveass think he has to address this nation about Egypt?
Right.Now.
Maybe he should get himself a hobby.

Frau Steingehirn

Even TPM could not defend Cynthia Stroum.

Extraneus

Is that Jane on Rush?

Extraneus

No, someone named Linda. Sure sounds like Jane.

Jack is Back!

bunky,

Not only is there an elliptical machine at Gitmo but its one of those that has a little TV thingamajigs on it that broadcasts Al-Jazerra 24/7.

matt

how does one screw up the ambassadorship to Luxembourg? There must be what? 12 people in the office? You can invite the entire adult population over and get them all drunk for $60,000, especially if it's Luxembourgeois wine.

We should probably fold countries such as Luxembourg and Liechtenstein and Monaco and San Marino into a master embassy and lease out the old embassies to reduce the deficit. We could offer offshore banking services, even, and make millions processing the proceeds of European tax cheats.

This administration deserves a Mel Brooks movie...

 centralcal

Hi, JiB - I left a comment on your blog, guess it needs moderation. But no biggie, just said I was enjoying your travels and looking forward to future posts.

bunky

JiB: pathetic but not surprising.

Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)

Someone who sounded like me was on Rush? What did she say?

BTW, I know you are dying to hear the latest storm update. A guy came by today to ask if the drywall was coming off in the living room because of the snow on the roof. Apparently lots of roofs, where I live, are collapsing. I see some water damage but no collapse -yet. I did manage to convince him my roof needs clearing.

Then Amy got a call from the school saying come pick up her kid, because everyone was afraid that teh school's roof would fall in, even tho it hadn't - yet.

We are expecting 8 more inches tomorrow - which means about 20 if history is the judge, then a very major storm next Thursday. At this point, no one has a clue what "major" means.

Anyone want to visit?

narciso

I referenced that line from "Spaceballs' on that other thread, that Gibbs seems to be going for Matt

Captain Hate

Speaking of Rush, as one of his frequent detractors I have to give him high marks for an excellent interview with Rodney Harrison on what it's like playing in the Super Bowl. I thought he asked very insightful questions to which Harrison gave very well thought out answers. As somebody who almost completely rejects all the Super Bowl blah blah, I found it very informative.

daddy

FOX News ticker just said that Bill Clinton, the man who singularly and solely vetoed Drilling in ANWR, is being named by Obama to be the point man on convincing us all to buy into Green Energy alternatives.

Captain Hate

Clenis selling green energy? I don't think so. Ask the glacier in pantsuits how he sells anything other than himself.

Janet

OMG daddy.
It is criminal that this nation can't use its own resources. All the headlines at Drudge right now are an embarrassment for America. How did the desires of radical environmentalists trump all other Americans?

Here is a great post with lots of pictures of ANWR.

narciso

A mystery solved, not that anyone wanted to, in the LUN, btw, than Vennochi valentine to
Kerry in the Globe, strictly Nc-17

Stephanie

FOX News ticker just said that Bill Clinton, the man who singularly and solely vetoed Drilling in ANWR, is being named by Obama to be the point man on convincing us all to buy into Green Energy alternatives.

If that’s anything like Clenis's work on Haiti, he’ll make a show of it for a couple of weeks with a PSA and then fade into some woman’s crotch.

Obama will assume he’s talking to the rubes, but he’ll really be just talking to the pubes.

Messaging fail. Again.

(Another) Barbara

OT (I guess) but there's a fascinating profile of Rush Limbaugh on Commentary that I think captures his appeal and his importance to conservatism. http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/how-to-understand-rush-limbaugh-15634

Apologies for my inability to figure out LUNs.

Porchlight

Obama will assume he’s talking to the rubes, but he’ll really be just talking to the pubes.

LOL Stephanie...and who knows what Slick's real motivation is anyway in working with this WH. He can't actually like Obama or want him to succeed.

Danube of Thought

Rodney Harrison is one of my all-time favorite ballplayers. I was happy to see him break free from the perennisl loser Bolts and go to a franchise with a winning attitude. He's always good on T now. And man, could that guy hit.

Captain Hate

With St Patrick's day coming up, Slick will be looking to score some drunken green cooter.

Captain Hate

And man, could that guy hit.

Troo dat; but on Rush today he was regretting the cumulative impact of the concussions, mentioning bright sunshine on the golf course giving him severe headaches, for example.

Jeff

discouraged workers will someday react to all the positive spin being blasted around by the MSM and return to the job market ...

then watch that unemployment rate explode ...

bottom line, not enough new jobs to keep up ...

nothing Obama has done or proposes to do will encourage business to hire, NOTHING ...

daddy

Honest to goodness after hearing John McCain yesterday praising Obama as an "easy to work with centrist moderate" I'm truly wondering who makes less sense---him or his daughter Meghan.">http://i423.photobucket.com/albums/pp314/pauly_cy/meghan20mccain20jabba20the20hut.jpg">Meghan.

Jane,

Please tell me where to send some Boxing Gloves so that you can start pummeling Laura for not posting Podcasts. Grrrrrrr.

And you New England guys, what the hell's going on up there?

First Mayor Bloomberg calls a Groundhog "">http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2011/02/04/2011-02-04_bloomberg_tries_to_make_nice_with_staten_island_chuck_after_cursing_him_out_i_lo.html"> "a sunuvabitch" after it bit him.

And now we have ">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahqtmJxYnmc&feature=youtube_gdata_player"> Ethel Kennedy's Turkey going "postal" on a Postal Employee.

Can't you guys control your livestock any better than that?

KayyyyyyyyyyyyyyRo Ow! Damn dog bit me! (Must'a been the earthquake.) Later.

RichatUF

Stephanie-

Clinton's foundation is the distribution point for the $1.2 billion in aid money authorized for Haiti. Not sure how giving Clinton's foundation 1.2 billion will help Haiti or giving the Clintons that amount of money would really help anyone, but there you go.

Captain Hate

Mayor Bloomberg calls a Groundhog " "a sunuvabitch" after it bit him

I'd like to buy that groundhog a drink.

maryrose

Maybee:
I totally agree with your comments regarding Obama and showing his face before all important sporting events. Who cares what he thinks? It reminds me of junior high and the hanger on kid who would park himself in the locker room with all the cool kids. No obama you'll never be a sports star. You just got lucky and became president. We won't make that mistake again,you can take it to the bailed out banks.

Stephanie

Original Coke?

PaulV

LUN Reggie Love passed out at UNC frat

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Wilson/Plame