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February 11, 2011

Comments

mastour

Great call Tom. You haven't heard anybody say anything about Sulieman still being in power. Nice play by Hosni.

MarkO

A mulligan and a booth review? Why not a let as well?

NK

TM-- I vote for the booth review. Mubarak's dictator ego prevented him from resigning in response to the mob and the worthless POTUS. His speech lands with a thud, the military tells him they won't shoot the mob and will stop Party goons from violence against the mob. Hosni shuffles off to the Egyptian equivalent of Palm Beach.

The Military has the ball now. What does that mean? DaveIB?

Army of Davids

February 11...same day the Shah was kicked out of Iran.

"Welcome Back Kotter"

Dave (in MA)

Does he get charged a timeout?

Dave (in MA)

Instareynolds points out that the Iranian Revolution also happened on 2/11.

Sue

Israel is probably getting ready. For what, we don't know yet.

 centralcal

Here come the MFM tweets to set the stage for Obummer to take credit for Mubarak's departure. Let's start with Jakey Tapper:

After Thursday Speech, White House Pushed Mubarak: You Must Satisfy the Demonstrators In the Street http://abcn.ws/heYA7G

Sandy Daze

11-2-11

Know so little about the Egyptian military. Certainly we should have good insight and penetration,

My question is, is there a "Kamal Attaturk" with the ranks who can deftly pilot Egypt's future? I do not believe a transition which does not include the military's heavy hand of the tiller of the ship of state will be useful for Egypt, for the region, nor for America.

I second NK, DiB, do you have any insight as to the military?

Take good care,
Sandy

Porchlight

What is Suleiman's status? Seems like he is out too.

Melinda Romanoff

Sulieman still VP, in everything I've read so far.

Danube of Thought

To what extent might Mubarak remain de facto head of the military? He sure has plenty of grease for the appropriate palms.

Melinda Romanoff

DoT-

I'm reading it right now as none.

Then again, running off to retire with $40B might be considered by some as a hardship.

Not by me, but by "some".

Ranger

Ok, so has he actually resigned the presidency? Or just handed the powers over to the VP, while he remains a "symbolic" president? If its the latter, then it is exactly the resolution that the "wise men" proposed a few days ago, and the White House declared "insufficient." So, now Barry gets to go on TV and take credit for accepting a solution he declared unacceptalbe just a few days ago?

clarice

Donald Sensing (link at Insty)
So I am back where I was last Monday:
Who will wind up on top in Egypt? The faction with most willing and able to kill other Egyptians to get power. Right now the Muslim Brotherhood leads for the former and the military for the latter. But the Brotherhood will also take a longer view of things than the military and so will be more comfortable with biding its time.
I would add that in no more than a week it will dawn on the proles that the eschaton has not arrived. Food will be neither more plentiful nor less expensive. Economically, Egypt is now worse off than it was yesterday since investment capital will no flow in and much foreign capital will likely be withdrawn. There is potential for serious unrest by this date in, say, April. If that happens and is widespread, then comes le deluge.

Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)

The "same date" thing gives me the creeps.

Ranger

Ok, so here is the core of the military statement:

The Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces decided to secure the implementation of the following procedures:

First: End the state of emergency as soon as the current circumstances are over.

Decide on the appeals against elections and consequent measures.

Conduct needed legislative amendments and conduct free and fair presidential elections in light of the approved constitutional amendments.

Second: The Armed forces are committed to sponsor the legitimate demands of the people and achieving them by following on the implementation of these procedures in the defined time frames with all accuracy and seriousness and until the peaceful transfer of authority is completed towards a free democratic community that the people aspire to.

Third: The Armed Forces emphasize on no security pursuit of the honest people who refused the corruption and demanded reforms, and warns against touching the security and safety of the nation and the people. And emphasizes the need for regular work in state facilities and regaining of life to normal to preserve the interests and possessions of our great people.

So, the 30 year State of Emergency will be lifted, but not until after the 'current situation' has ended. This looks like basically what they have been saying for the last several days.

The process in place for constitutional reforms remains the process for setting up the new elections.

Finally, demonstrators will be protected, but everyone needs to get back to life as normal.

Army of Davids

The following is a sample of the type of thinking that got us in this mess:

In a 2010 bid to stem taxpayer losses for bad loans guaranteed by federal housing agencies Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac, Senator Bob Corker (R-Tenn) proposed that borrowers be required to make a 5% down payment in order to qualify.

His proposal was rejected 57-42 on a party-line vote because, as Senator Chris Dodd (D-Conn) explained,

"passage of such a requirement would restrict home ownership to only those who can afford it."

RichatUF

Jane-

Rick flagged it up on the other thread, but this is how it is playing in Iran.

Iran's state TV broadcast simultaneous live footage of the gathering at Tehran's Azadi, or Freedom, Square and that of anti-government demonstrations in Cairo's downtown Tahrir Square where tens of thousands had gathered by noon Friday.

Iran, which is at odds with the international community over its controversial nuclear program, has sought to portray the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt as evidence of a replay of its own Islamic Revolution.

"Despite all the (West's) complicated and satanic designs ... a new Middle East is emerging without the Zionist regime and U.S. interference, a place where the arrogant powers will have no place," Ahmadinejad told the crowd.

He also urged Egyptian protesters to persevere until there is a regime change. "It's your right to be free. It's your right to exercise your will and sovereignty ... and choose the type of government and the rulers."

After his address, Ahmadinejad carried a placard reading, "Death to Israel."

Great. March 20th is just around the corner and the 12th Imam might be scheduling an appearence.

NK

Thanks Ranger--

If the POTUS were a real American, the first thing he would do is take this military statement and demand that the dictators in Cuba, North Korea, Venezuala,Lybia,Syria and Iran resign and let their people take democratic control of their countries. Of course the current POTUS is not a real American. Maybe Harper will do it on behalf of North Americans.

NK

AOD-- FYI, Dodd never said that. T

That was a characterization of the vote not a Dodd quote. I detest Dodd, he should be in prison. But we are not entitled to our own facts.

Pofarmer

The "same date" thing gives me the creeps.

That's just the beginning of the things that are giving me the creeps about this whole deal.

Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)

Rich,

It is very troubling.

clarice

Rich, It's hard for me to sneer at such imbecility abroad when it matches what's in the WH right now .

Extraneus

Cairo University

1959:

1978:

1995:

2004:


Tahrir Square

2011:


U.S. Interests

Does anyone see a way that all of this progress can help?

RichatUF

We'll see. We pushed aside the Musharraf regime in Pakistan and they are still limping along with the usual level of terrorism and political assassinations. Maybe it won't be so bad.

MarkO

It's a junta and we're happy. Democracy check in the mail. Obama pleased that his plan worked, or something like that. More praise for Obama, The Wonderful.

Porchlight

RichatUF and Rick,

Many of the outlets carrying that AP story scrubbed the part about Ahmadinejad carrying the "Death To Israel" placard.

This version still has it, but if you google, you'll find many that don't (though they're still showing up in the google cache).

It would be wise to get screencaps of any coverage you think might be subject to this kind of scrubbing.

Ghost of Gamal Abdel Nasser

If you think Egypt will be better without a strongman secularist who plays off the internal and external competing interests, you deserve the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt.

RichatUF

Porchlight-

Little surprise.

PDinDetroit

Mubarak Out.

Can we go "Egyptian" and have Barack go as well?

clarice

Do you suppose that out yapper in chief's comments won him any significant support in Egypt? I don't.

Ranger

Wow, I wonder what got into Tapper today (via Hot Air):

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/02/taking-a-clear-eyed-look-at-the-obama-administrations-full-two-year-record-on-reform-in-egypt.html>Taking A Clear-Eyed Look at the Obama Administration’s Full Two-Year Record on Reform in Egypt

But Kessler notes that the first public, direct call for reform in Egypt by President Obama came on January 28, 2011, after President Mubarak announced he was dissolving his Cabinet following mass demonstrations in the streets of Cairo.

RichatUF

clarice-

Obviously not, but I'm still skeptical of the constellation of forces that brought down the Mubarak regime and with idiots like this having the President's ear, we should be worried. I suppose the test for the direction of the revolution is the Sinai and the observer force there. If in the coming days it comes under attack, the revolution is going to go in an awfully bad direction.

Porchlight

Porchlight-

Little surprise.

Yeah. It read like an Onion piece, didn't it? As do so many news stories these days.

Ranger

I am starting to wonder if Mubarak's health has taken a sudden turn for the worse in the last few days. Perhapse this is a effort to avoid him dying in office.

Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet

Here's the money quote from Rich's linked article:

Because of the U.N., the world doesn’t look to America to solve every problem alone. … We’re far better off working to strengthen the U.N. than trying to starve it — and then having to choose between filling the void ourselves, or leaving real threats untended.

Where the hell was the UN for the past two weeks?

Extraneus

Tending real threats?

Porchlight

Where the hell was the UN for the past two weeks?

Good question, Jim Rhoads.

They're usually so good at filling voids and tending threats.

Ignatz

Mitt Romney cut to the bone (pardon my incivility) by the perceptive Deroy Murdock.

RichatUF

Extraneus-

Real threats, you know, like those satanic zionists, satanic carbon polluters, and satanic wierd weather causers...

Danube of Thought

I understand that for the time being Al Haig is in charge there.

Extraneus

Thanks, Rich. I was racking my brain trying to remember the last threat the UN tended. Missed that one.

RichatUF

Iranian stooge and tranzi trashel-Baradei, chimes in with the tranzi lay of the land. Hope the military sends his ass packing to Switzerland so he'll be able to enjoy the millions in bribes he took as IAEA chief.

Extraneus

Er, those.

clarice

excellent, DoT..Stealable even.

Rob Crawford

Tending real threats?

The UN? More like covering up extortion, theft, and sex slavery.

RichatUF

from Iranian stooge el-Baradei:

.The United States and its allies have spent the better part of the last decade, at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars and countless lives, fighting wars to establish democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now that the youth of Cairo, armed with nothing but Facebook and the power of their convictions, have drawn millions into the street to demand a true Egyptian democracy, it would be absurd to continue to tacitly endorse the rule of a regime that has lost its own people’s trust.

Interesting.

Ranger

Well, the military is saying they are not disbanding parliament, which makes sense based on the statement that they want to ammend the constitution using the normal proceedurs, which requires the parliament to approve the ammendments.

Ranger

There's a report that the military is not suspending parliament. That makese sense, because if they plan to use the existing ammendment process, the parliament needs to approve the ammandments.

Ranger

sorry for the double post.

Janet

The UN? More like covering up extortion, theft, and sex slavery.

Planned Parenthood material.

RichatUF

Hold everything, Obama is going to make a statement around 3 today. Maybe this time he'll get it right.

Also, the IMF is talking about the SDR to replace the dollar.

Looks like a good time for a martini (or three).

Sandy Daze

11-2-11

Not sure about this being the anniversary of the Shah's fleeing Iran.

Multiple sources state that day as 16 January 1979, with the ayatollah arriving Iran on 1 February and on April Fool's Day 1979, under Khomeini's guidance, Iran declaring itself a theocratic republic guided by Islamic principles. (LUN)

Now, this was the day, in 1990, that Nelson Mandela was released from prison

Niters.
Take good care,
Sandy

Barack Obama

Let's see, how do I take credit for this thing but hedge so that if it goes Islamist I can plausibly deny having taken credit for this thing?

Dave (in MA)
http://www.americanheritage.com/people/articles/web/20060211-khomeini-islam-iran-bakhtiar-tehran-ahmadinejad-pahlavi-jimmy-carter.shtml>American Heritage: By February 11, only 10 days after the ayatollah’s return—and 27 years ago today—Bakhtiar and the other remnants of the Shah’s government had been chased from power, and a provisional government backed by Khomeini had assumed control of the country.

From an 'on this date' article from 5 years ago.

clarice

Begin, "As I've always said...."segue into ,"Let me be clear...." then mush mouth mush mouth,,

Captain Hate

So is Preznit Sand Trap gonna spin utter clueless incompetence into brilliant statesmanship? Good luck with that; if the citizens are dumb enough to swallow that garbage then we're screwed anyway.

O/T to any alt-country listeners (Porch, Janet, anybody else): Any Lori McKenna fans?

sbw

Where is the UN? Getting ready to solicit funds.

Captain Hate

O/T Borders expected to file for bankruptcy on Monday. More signs of a robust recovery with jobs created and saved!!!!11!eleventy

Janet

Wow Captain...here is her MySpace site.
'Witness To Your Life' is great. I love all you guys at JOM. What a treasure of political insight, humor, new ideas, new music & entertainment, cooking/diet tips,....what a treasure.

Pofarmer

Why all the govt numbers are horse pucky, especially the GDP and inflation

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mit-billion-price-project-confirms-us-prices-surging

Captain Hate

Janet, one of my buds gave me Bittertown for Christmas which is outstanding; thanks for the Witness to Your Life rec.

Porchlight

I don't think I've heard her, Cap'n. What's she like? Can't check out the MySpace at the moment (no speakers at work).

I have news on Mr. Porchlight's band that I can share - they will be recording this spring in Levon Helm's Woodstock studio with Helm's longtime producer, Larry Campbell. Wish I could go out there for some of it, but I gotta stay home and hold down the fort as usual.

Mustang0302

Keep an eye on the Egyptian Air Force. That's where the young bucks bucking for dictator usually come from. Military coups are dime a dozen around the world, but the flashy, left-leaning ones all came from air force officers: Quadaffi, Assad, the Shah was undermined by his own "tres-chic" Air Force officers (later got ruthlessly purged), and in '82, a Kenyan air force private planned and executed a coup...for about six hours. Awhile back Gul in Turkey smelled a plot from his air force chief of staff. Must be the nice O'clubs, golf courses, and the universal sense of entitlement among zoomies (everybody smells the sarcasm, right?)

Also, don't forget our own James Mattoon Scott, Jack D. Ripper, and lefty delusions about Curtis LeMay.

Blast from the past from '92: Well-known subversive (/s!) Charles J. Dunlap, Jr. USAF and the sad tale of General Thomas E. T. Brutus, (USAF, undoubtedly!)- The Origins of the American Military Coup of 2012.

Porchlight

Oh, and they signed to Vanguard so they are now official folkies, I guess. I swear I just learned all this today even though it's been in the works for weeks. The wife is always the last to know.

Mustang0302

Cap'n, if you like Lori McKenna, check out Sunny Sweeney, and also the JaneDear Girls!

Captain Hate

Goddammit; I tried posting the following link twice and it crapped out both time. So much for Maybee's paramour being a credible source on anything about this crew of idiots, which even MessNBC isn't buying.

Porch, she really doesn't sound like any of the singer/songwriters of that genre that I like (Lucinda Williams, Kathleen Edwards, Nanci Griffith, Mary Chapin-Carpenter...) but if you like them you should like her. Congrats to Mr Porch on moving onward and upward although no offense but I consider Vanguard the most ungodly boring label there ever was.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/02/after-thursday-speech-white-house-pushed-mubarak-you-must-satisfy-the-demonstrators-in-the-street.html

Captain Hate

Thanks Mustang; I'm always looking for new ideas.

daddy

Obama on tube.

Let the parsing begin.

To my untrained ear he got in 1 implied anti-Brit dig via Ghandi and 1 implied anti-US dig via MLK. And of course the protesters were partially Christians.

Don't think there was anything untrue in what he said, but if I'm a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic Radicals I'm ecstatic, because the one bunch he did not identify as the historical enemy of freedom was Islamic Fundamentalism.

Seems to me like a Carte Blanche to similar "freedom lovers" to do the same in Jordan, etc.

Porchlight

but I consider Vanguard the most ungodly boring label there ever was.

None taken, actually I totally agree, but recording at Levon's place might make up for it.

Someday we'll have to chat about Lucinda.

Rick Ballard

Clarice,

I don't see any reason why Obama shouldn't share credit with Ahmadinijad and the Muslim Brotherhood for forcing an octogenarian General who ruled in the name of the military to quit and be replaced by a septuagenarian Field Marshal who will rule in the name of the extraordinarily democratic Supreme Military Council.

What a tremendous turnabout! As Mustang notes, there are colonels and brigadiers all over Egypt hoping for a chance to effect the changes necessary to assure a much better life for themselves.

daddy

And now listening to the Prez saying thanks and goodbye to Gibbs. In 2 minutes the Pres has said "I" about 15 times. Well "I" can't stand it, so "I" am off to walk the dog.

IMHO It is obvious Obama thinks his short speech was a home run and he has successfully placed himself back in command of the world situation.

Porchlight

Wonder who gets the first fist bump back in the green room?

Dave (in MA)
I consider Vanguard the most ungodly boring label there ever was.
The only Vanguard releases that I own (as far as I know) are the early Oregon catalog. Not boring IMO. If I was to try to come up with a label that would be synonymous with "boring" I think the first one that would come to mind would be GRP.
Mustang0302

One more, Cap'n: An Aussie named Kasey Chambers. I only found her because Sunny named her (along with Loretta Lynn and the Hag) as an influence.

Here's a clip of Pony.

Frau Indianerherz

From Ranger's link at 1:10 PM:

Perhaps more glaringly, while the Bush administration tried to directly fund civil society in Egypt – pro-democracy groups and the like – the Obama administration changed that policy and cut funding significantly, ending an effort to provide direct funding to democracy groups not “approved” by the Egyptian government, and reduced funding in the budget for programs to promote civil society groups.

As Kessler writes: Bush’s final budget “proposed spending $45 million on democracy and good-governance programs in Egypt, including more than $20 million on promoting civil society…But that nascent effort was largely shelved when the Obama administration took office. For fiscal year 2009, the administration immediately halved the money for democracy promotion in Egypt; the civil society funds were slashed 70 percent, to $7 million. Meanwhile, money that was to be given directly to civil society groups was eliminated and the administration agreed to once again fund only those institutions that had Mubarak's seal of approval.”

No surprise.

OldTimer

I have a bad feeling about this whole democracy farce in Egypt. There are too many int'l socialist groups bonding with factions of Islam---the Muslim Brotherhood first and foremost, to achieve anything but an assurance of future unrest followed by anarchy. Even the complicit media, CNN in particular is being lauded as helping the "revolution." How long will all these rogue elements stay glued together?

Throw in the Nile River treaty--Egypt uses about 85% of allotted waters--divisions in the army and Suez Canal vulnerabilities, and we have a promise of some real mischief making.

Besides that, I think Barry has known all along exactly what his buddies Ayers and Code Pink were up to in Cairo before the street blew up. We should be asking, what did he know and when did he know it?

Captain Hate

Someday we'll have to chat about Lucinda.

Oh dear God I know I'm gonna love that. The story in the NYT magazine about what she put musicians and producers through while doing songs for (iirc) Car Wheels on a Gravel Road is one of the funniest things I've ever read not written by PJ O'rourke; finally ending up with the only person more self-destructive than her, Steve Earle, telling her to STFU and play. The only time I ever saw her perform she was a total spazz on the stage with former guitarist Gurf Morlix having to tune hers for her. She has a great voice and creates songs that are perfect vehicles for it. The first time I heard Passionate Kisses I pulled off the road to make sure I heard the college announcer say who it was.

So yeah, we have to chat.

Captain Hate

Dave, I forgot about the early Oregon albums but those were only two, no? The Buddy Guy albums on Vanguard are some of his worst plus they record blues artists in a manner to make them sound completely lifeless. I'll try to think of some others but their catalog generally doesn't interest me at all. GRP is mostly smooth jazz stuff, right?::vomit::

Mustang0302

I can't help it: another favorite, Cap'n, did you catch Shelby Lynne's tribute to Dusty Springfield? Every single track is sublime. I've been a fan of Shelby's for a long, long time.

Captain Hate

Damn Mustang; you're a treasure trove of insight. Yes I'm familiar with Shelby's tribute; in fact I saw her perform with the band from that release doing mostly, but not exclusively, songs from that including some Dusty songs not included on the disc. Great voice and easy on the eyes which, to judge by the concert crowd, is appreciated by both sexes.

Mustang0302

On Shelby (quoting Dolly about somebody else!): I'd drink her bathwater!

Dave (in MA)

CH, it was actually their first 8 albums followed by another one that predated the 1st.

Janet

There are too many int'l socialist groups bonding with factions of Islam

my local AM radio was talking about that. He brought up some NYT article from yesterday which listed some groups, but I can't find which one he was referring to.

Mustang0302

There are too many int'l socialist groups bonding with factions of Islam

The same old smelly feet in different boots.

daveinboca

Seems the WH flacks are trying to grab credit for the Mubarak Mulligan, but if the White House thinks that they can con the Ameican people into believing that they had ANYTHING to do with Mubarak or the Army forcing Mubarak to change his mind from Thursday to Friday, well, the American people are MUCH smarter than this collection of clowns working out of the West Wing.

Obama is a clubfooted bumbler when it comes to even reacting to foreign events. When it comes to predicting or influencing them, just look at Clapper and Panetta and judge for yourselves.

Captain Hate

Damn straight Mustang!

Dave I didn't know it was that many and, as usual, the all music site is woefully incomplete. I meant to ask you, did you see the DKV trio at the end of December or just know about them playing? On the live at Wels double disc, recording Don Cherry's "Complete Communion" was extremely inspired and very well executed. Hamid Drake is one impressive drummer. I once took a consultant who'd been a guitarist who toured with Alice Cooper to see Drake and Peter Brotzmann. He was completely confused by Teh Brotz but was calling a drummer bud in California on his cell and just foaming at the mouth over Drake.

Porchlight

Great voice and easy on the eyes which, to judge by the concert crowd, is appreciated by both sexes.

I believe Shelby bats for the other team.

Porchlight

The first time I heard Passionate Kisses I pulled off the road to make sure I heard the college announcer say who it was.

It's a great song and she has lots of other great songs. I just find her persona insanely irritating...well, anyway, sometime we'll have to chat.

Captain Hate

Your probably right Porch because the number of teh lezzos was larger than anything I'd seen since a Joan Armatrading concert.

Mustang since you've given me so many recs here's one for you: Katy Moffat's "Child Bride". Only get that one because her other stuff is subpar to unlistenable; but for that release she hit all the right notes.

Porchlight

Besides that, I think Barry has known all along exactly what his buddies Ayers and Code Pink were up to in Cairo before the street blew up. We should be asking, what did he know and when did he know it?

I agree, OldTimer. Hinky stuff.

Porchlight

Besides that, I think Barry has known all along exactly what his buddies Ayers and Code Pink were up to in Cairo before the street blew up. We should be asking, what did he know and when did he know it?

I agree, OldTimer. Hinky stuff.

Porchlight

Besides that, I think Barry has known all along exactly what his buddies Ayers and Code Pink were up to in Cairo before the street blew up. We should be asking, what did he know and when did he know it?

I agree, OldTimer. Hinky stuff.

Porchlight

Aw man, sorry about that.

Captain Hate

Hinky software

Porchlight

Yeah, but it was my fault - it was hanging up and I pressed Post again. I figured nothing else works when Typepad is hanging up, so why would it work this time?

Mustang0302

Hinky software

We still talking about Shelby, right?

Dusty was broadminded, too, wasn't she?

That's OK...I'm very broadminded myself.

I wish PUK was around to tell us Dusty stories.

Dave (in MA)

Cap, I did not see them -- this was in Chicago and I'm way over here. I have the Wels & Chicago set and would have to say that their Complete Communion might surpass the original.
I don't want to come off as some kind of expert on these guys because I only have a few things. There's some impressive stuff on Youtube and I have a favorite bootleg:
Fri 6/26/98 Velvet Lounge
Eric Dolphy Project (Kyle Hernandez b, Jeb Bishop tb, Tim Mulvenna dr, Ken Vandermark sax)

daveinboca

NK & Sandy---Just got back from errands all afternoon and am trying to digest it all. First, the constitution has been tossed, and the Speaker of Parliament's statutory role in arranging an election within the next 90 days, mandatory if the President dies or leaves office, is being ignored. So now we're speaking about September and at least a primus inter pares role for Omar Suleiman---if he'd been tossed under the bus, he wouldn't have announced Mubarak's departure, Tantawi or another of the Supremes would have done so.

The Egyptian Army is the mainspring of the military, and Army factions riddle the hierarchy. After all, the Free Officers' Movement in '52 was a bunch of colonels and majors, who put Naguib as a general in charge just as a talking head. Nasser was the Edgar Bergen for Naguib's Charlie McCarthy.

My guess is that Tantawi and Omar Suleiman are the two tallest brass hats in the room, but that's solely from a distance. A guy named George Lenczkowski [sp?] wrote a brilliant piece a while back about the Egyptian Army and its "batches" that formerly went to Sandhurst and now go to Benning or other advanced US schools like the JFK Counterinsurgency School where I spent 2 weeks before shipping out to Nam. Or the Naval Institute or War College.

Anyhow, the Egyptian Army has had US money and arms & maintenance training for 30+ years and lotsa American mojo. Their exposure to US society wouldn't hit them like Said Qutb was grossed out by Greeley CO, but who knows?

My fear is that there's some sort of Fifth Column sympathizing with the Ikhwan like Stambouli & the other assassins of Sadat somehow lurking in the bowels of the military undetected. But that's a long shot.

My best guess is that the Army Supremes & Omar Suleiman may try to string out the timeframe beyond the six months to September, and I doubt Suleiman will run as Mubarak's successor because the press is going to suddenly awake from a dormant state and hurl all sorts of accusations about Swiss accounts,etc., and I think some of the sludge will stick, if only because there's so much mud being slung.

Perhaps this whiz-kid Ghoneim from Google or even the colorless Iranian cat's paw El Baradei might emerge as contenders---my guess is that Iran is now scared that the quiescent mobs of Teheran and Tabriz may become activated again because the youth there were treated worse than Egyptians by the Mullahcracy.

I'm worried about Jordan and Morocco & Algeria going crazier than Tahrir turned out to be. The Egyptian claim that they're more civilized than other Arabs turned out to be true.

But that old Bette Davis line comes to mind: "Fasten your seat belts, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

Watch MessNBC go nuts trying to give Obummer the credit for jump-starting this through his "speech" in Cairo two years ago---think that'll wash with the great unwashed?

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