CJ Chiver of the Times assesses our progress in Afghanistan:
Putting Afghan Plan Into Action Proves Difficult
ALAM KHEL, Afghanistan — If the American-led fight against the Taliban was once a contest for influence in well-known and conventionally defined areas — the capital and large cities, main roads, the border with Pakistan, and a handful of prominent valleys and towns — today it has become something else.
Slowly, almost imperceptibly, the United States military has settled into a campaign for scattered villages and bits of terrain that few people beyond their immediate environs have heard of.
Reality is not pretty:
Officially, Mr. Obama’s Afghan buildup shows signs of success, demonstrating both American military capabilities and the revival of a campaign that had been neglected for years. But in the rank and file, there has been little triumphalism as the administration’s plan has crested.
With the spring thaw approaching, officers and enlisted troops alike say they anticipate another bloody year. And as so-called surge units complete their tours, to be replaced by fresh battalions, many soldiers, now seasoned with Afghan experience, express doubts about the prospects of the larger campaign.
The United States military has the manpower and, thus far, the money to occupy the ground that its commanders order it to hold. But common questions in the field include these: Now what? How does the Pentagon translate presence into lasting success?
The answers reveal uncertainty. “You can keep trying all different kinds of tactics,” said one American colonel outside of this province. “We know how to do that. But if the strategic level isn’t working, you do end up wondering: How much does it matter? And how does this end?”
The strategic vision, roughly, is that American units are trying to diminish the Taliban’s sway over important areas while expanding and coaching Afghan government forces, to which these areas will be turned over in time.
But the colonel, a commander who asked that his name be withheld to protect him from retaliation, referred to “the great disconnect,” the gulf between the intense efforts of American small units at the tactical level and larger strategic trends.
The Taliban and the groups it collaborates with remain deeply rooted; the Afghan military and police remain lackluster and given to widespread drug use; the country’s borders remain porous; Kabul Bank, which processes government salaries, is wormy with fraud, and President Hamid Karzai’s government, by almost all accounts, remains weak, corrupt and erratically led.
And the Pakistani frontier remains a Taliban safe haven.
Even a successful military campaign, soldiers and Marines consistently say, is unlikely to untangle this knot of dysfunction, much less within the deadlines discussed in Washington. The Obama administration hopes to begin withdrawing forces within months and to complete a drawdown by 2014 (a plan reiterated by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates in Afghanistan this week).
“This is tough,” one company commander, Capt. Edward T. Peskie, said of the problems. “And it’s more complex than I think most people realize.”
But don't say our troops, are pessimistic:
An awareness of the disconnect should not be confused with pessimism, at least not outwardly expressed. A can-do pragmatism and a quick operational tempo are apparent in many infantry units, even if the work is overlaid with nagging questions.
Another commander, Lt. Col. Alan Streeter, leads a reinforced infantry battalion newly arrived in Ghazni Province for a one-year tour. “I think this place is far from secure,” he said of the Andar and Deh Yak districts, where his unit, Second Battalion, Second Infantry, is assigned. “But I think it is a hell of a lot better than it was.”
Should we ask abut a time frame for success? Don't ask:
“We create little security bubbles,” said Sgt. First Class Paul Meacham, a platoon leader in Third Battalion, 187th Infantry, which swept Alam Khel, after one of his last patrols before rotating back to the States last month. “But they are little bubbles that are easy to attack and infiltrate.”
After a moment of reflection, he said: “I think it could work. But it’s going to be a long time.”
Asked how long, his answer was immediate. “These people,” he said, nodding toward the villages nearby, “think in decades.”
I don't think the American people are planning on decades.
As soon as a few prominent Republicans give him political cover our "leader" Obama will cut and run.
(Links aren't working.) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8v8CwxZKM0 This is the price we are paying. And for what? So this man-child we call president can find his god damned political cover? Eff him.
Posted by: Sue | March 10, 2011 at 09:33 AM
More pictures.
http://www.frontporchnewstexas.com/soldiertribute030911.htm
Posted by: Sue | March 10, 2011 at 09:38 AM
Tragedy. It is very painful to contemplate the extraordinary character of the men we are losing in this thing. I don't think the country as it stands right now deserves them.
Posted by: Danube of Thought | March 10, 2011 at 09:48 AM
I don't either, DoT; particularly because Preznit Easy Bake is fine with having France take the lead on dealing with Libya.
Posted by: Captain Hate | March 10, 2011 at 09:54 AM
Sue,put quotes around your links in the html...
a href="link"
New typepad feature!
Posted by: hit and run | March 10, 2011 at 09:54 AM
particularly because Preznit Easy Bake is fine with having France take the lead on dealing with Libya.
Well, the last time we decided to let Europe lead was in the Yugoslav crisis, and that worked out fine for everyone. I have no doubt that the European response in North Africa will turn out just as well.
Posted by: Ranger | March 10, 2011 at 09:57 AM
Yeah, last time, it and Chechya were the leading influence in AQ recruitment in the mid 90s. The Milan Imam, Nasr, really got his
start, in that period
Posted by: narciso | March 10, 2011 at 10:04 AM
Wrap that image around your brain, man-child, and then look for political cover.
Source Thanks Hit
.
Posted by: Sue | March 10, 2011 at 10:09 AM
I want you to know his wife is Army Strong. I do not know how they do it. May God bless her and help her in the days, weeks, months and years ahead.
Posted by: Sue | March 10, 2011 at 10:15 AM
I'd have to look hard to find anyone with a lower opinion of Barry than I have have, but this strategy he's pursuing is pretty much what Bush had intended to pursue.
Unlike say, Michael Medved, I have no problem assigning the basest of motives to Obama as compared to Bush's, but this miserable backwater was never worth building into a "nation" and has sunk and/or absorbed just about every country that has ever tried, regardless of their motives.
Posted by: Ignatz | March 10, 2011 at 10:19 AM
Just watched that mutt Keith Ellison do a nice emoting breakdown about his brave, patriotic muslim friend being the reason we should just leave the religion of peace alone. Reminded me, in a way, of those patriots in the WI capitol breaking out a capella in singing the national anthemn. For Dems there is no word spelled "shame".
Posted by: Jack is Back! | March 10, 2011 at 10:22 AM
Ignatz,
Was Bush looking for political cover to leave? I don't remember and frankly don't care. Obama is president and like the left, I am having a single vision moment. Obama is to blame for everything bad. It works for me. For the moment.
Posted by: Sue | March 10, 2011 at 10:22 AM
Wow, Sue. I love those people lining the streets.
Posted by: MayBee | March 10, 2011 at 10:26 AM
After years of complaints that Bush overlooked the war in Afghanistan, we now find out that Bush at least had the smarts to move the war to Iraq.
Posted by: Neo | March 10, 2011 at 10:26 AM
MayBee,
It was pretty much that way from Greenville to Winnsboro. Which is about 60 miles. The towns are spread out along the route.
Posted by: Sue | March 10, 2011 at 10:28 AM
Sue,
If you are military and love it then your family loves it too. She probably has a strong peer group that helps her get through this as best she can. Also, I'll bet she is god-fearing and has a spiritual quality in her life. May God Bless SSGT. Mays and his soul rest in peace.
Posted by: Jack is Back! | March 10, 2011 at 10:31 AM
C-P in the pictures is Como-Pickton. It is a community just east of Sulphur Springs, in Hopkins County, where Chauncy actually went to grade school. It is also the school where his mother and father graduated. Don't tell anyone but the school allowed students to hold signs God Bless Our Troops and God Bless Chauncy. ::EGADS::
Chauncy will be buried at Harmony Cemetery, which is in the eastern part of Hopkins County. Hopkins County did indeed turn out for our returning hero.
Posted by: Sue | March 10, 2011 at 10:40 AM
--Ignatz,
Was Bush looking for political cover to leave? I don't remember and frankly don't care. Obama is president and like the left, I am having a single vision moment.--
No, Sue. As I implied, Bush's motives were genuine and honorable while Barry's are phony and dishonorable.
My point was, once we went beyond smashing our enemies and entered the nation building zone, every soldier's death, including Sergeant Mays', was pointless because the hole that is Afghanistan is and always has been a bottomless, irredeemable grave, regardless of anyone's intentions, good or bad.
Posted by: Ignatz | March 10, 2011 at 10:42 AM
As long as the Taliban and Al Qaeda can conduct their attacks in Afghanistan and then immediately run back across the border into Pakistan, we will fail in Afghanistan.
We need to wipe out the tribal areas of Waziristan.
Posted by: fdcol63 | March 10, 2011 at 10:43 AM
I don't believe Bush had ever contemplated committing nearly the number of troops that Obama has sent in, but my recollection might be flawed.
Posted by: Danube of Thought | March 10, 2011 at 10:43 AM
maybe someday this country's military leaders will get over the post-Korea obsession with police actions, 9-to-5 fly-in wars, making friends/influencing people, and trying to do things halfway and remember that you fight wars by seizing the enemy's territory, holding it, killing his fighting men, and denying the enemy the means and manpower to effectively resist.
Posted by: macphisto | March 10, 2011 at 11:05 AM
Exactly, macphisto.
You have to defeat your enemy decisively, so even THEY know they've been beaten.
This is the only way to destroy their will to fight, and it's the only way that you can then begin to restore the peace.
Half-measures like we've seen just leave the enemy with a sense of grievance and revenge, the belief that they can restart hostilities as soon as you leave or let up.
Posted by: fdcol63 | March 10, 2011 at 11:13 AM
But, I remind you, Iraq was the "wrong" war; Afghanistan is the "right" war, and Bush took his "eye off the ball" when he didn't kill OBL - or so screamed the Democrats. Afghanistan has been a political charade since the Democrats took control. How I wish we could make them accountable.
Sigh... Next time, let's elect a President!
(And that wouldn't be a bad bumper sticker)
Posted by: LouP | March 10, 2011 at 11:31 AM
mac-
It's actually won by changing the economic circumstances, locally, for better or worse.
If they just created an open opium market and let pharmaceutical companies bid for it openly instead of herbicidal destruction, the economics on the ground would change entirely.
Stupid State Department (sorry, clarice) and the continuation of the drug wars, by other means.
Posted by: Melinda Romanoff | March 10, 2011 at 11:32 AM
Posted by: cathyf | March 10, 2011 at 11:38 AM
Hey, Melinda, could you send me an email? Clarice and hit and Jane all have my email address...
Posted by: cathyf | March 10, 2011 at 11:39 AM
Of course not, quagmires are what happen to Republicans.
Posted by: Paul | March 10, 2011 at 11:55 AM
The issues in Afghanistan will never be resolved until some very hard choices are made, which our leadership is unwilling to do.
Therefore, it will remain a dog's breakfast. Nothing has changed since I wrote this in December. LUN
Posted by: matt | March 10, 2011 at 12:01 PM
cathyf-
My usual cut-out has been contacted and should forward something soon.
I hope that a reply gets caught in the spam filter and doesn't go into the Department of Irretrievable Items .
Posted by: Melinda Romanoff | March 10, 2011 at 12:17 PM
Heh... Well, since I administer the local spam filter, I should get it anyway :-)
Posted by: cathyf | March 10, 2011 at 12:20 PM
Uh, no, I meant MY spam filter, owned by Earthlink.
Posted by: Melinda Romanoff | March 10, 2011 at 12:29 PM
or add 191 to the end of my nickname, and don't forget the DoT NET.
Posted by: Melinda Romanoff | March 10, 2011 at 12:33 PM
(you're ruining my fun,Melinda but we'll press ahead anyway)
If y'all were like me...
[TheVIMH: ::shudder::]
...you would have every email you had ever received or sent since time in memoriam.
In which case,since y'all were both on the Soylent email chain from back last August...
Anyway,that's how I would find your email addys,if anyone needs them.
But just to expedite matters...Melinda's email address is:
[email protected]
And Cathy's is:
[email protected]
Hope that helps.
I can also post phone numbers if you need them -- just holler.
KTHXBAI!
Posted by: hit and run | March 10, 2011 at 12:39 PM
Can't you keep anything straight? My local GS leaders call me CookieCathy.
(Lame story. I got to work at 7:40 this morning, and by 7:50 had sold 3 boxes of cookies.)
Posted by: cathyf | March 10, 2011 at 12:42 PM
hit-
you've been yahoo'd.
Posted by: Melinda Romanoff | March 10, 2011 at 12:44 PM
and cathyf, obviously, don't pay attention to the voice in your head.
Posted by: Melinda Romanoff | March 10, 2011 at 12:46 PM
Cathy:
(Lame story. I got to work at 7:40 this morning, and by 7:50 had sold 3 boxes of cookies.)
So we're not allowed to sell cookies (officially) here at work.
Another mom from princess hit and run's troop also works here.
And she's not (officially) selling them.
But just about every day someone comes up to her and whispers under their breath,"you got any think mints?" and after looking both ways to see if the coast is clear,replies,"yeah,stop by,they're tucked away in my desk"
She's not so much a "seller" of cookies. She's a dealer.
And since mrs hit and run is the cookie mom -- when co-worker-dealer is running low,I'm the mule.
Hee haw!
Posted by: hit and run | March 10, 2011 at 12:56 PM
And I used the one from TreeCity and "pre-sent" one, you were already in my mailbox. I think during the Bad concerns.
Posted by: Melinda Romanoff | March 10, 2011 at 12:59 PM
Kudos to Scott Walker.
Since 2005 we have gone from around 35% of GDP to around 45% for state, local and federal government.
The core of the Marxist rot in this country is the public sector (Soviet) unions. Grinding them down will be a process and not an event.
Kudos to Christie, Scott, Kasich and Mitch Daniels and state legislators as well.
This is just the early innings.
Posted by: Army of Davids | March 10, 2011 at 01:33 PM
Saudi police-it's reported-have fired on protestors in the Eastern part of the country.
Posted by: glasater | March 10, 2011 at 01:36 PM
That ought to whip up the crowds for the "Day of Rage" tomorrow.
Posted by: RichatUF | March 10, 2011 at 01:44 PM
I'm thinkin' Rich.
Posted by: glasater | March 10, 2011 at 01:46 PM
Hah! My main problem is competing with all of the other GS moms and dads at the office. The local GS staff person who is in charge of cookies is the sister-in-law of a co-worker (who is a boy scout leader). The boy scout leader lives across the street from my boss. I figure I'm lucky to have sold 6 boxes to my boss!
Posted by: cathyf | March 10, 2011 at 01:47 PM
cathy-
Years ago we had a neighbor buy 35 boxes.
Sue-
I was at a Turning Blue ceremony and then graduation last week and I kept thinking of your Sgt Chauncy.
Our magnificent young men need a respectful CIC.
Posted by: rse | March 10, 2011 at 02:04 PM
JiB -- Kaus's argument reinforces mine, I think. The union dues automatically out of the paycheck are bad enough, but that money still shows up on the employees' pay stubs, and so they are going to hold the union bosses somewhat accountable. But the benefits skim is invisible, and every penny can be used to buy politicians, fund union bosses' lifestyles, etc. -- whatever the union chooses.
Posted by: cathyf | March 10, 2011 at 02:05 PM
oops -- meant to post that on the other thread
Posted by: cathyf | March 10, 2011 at 02:07 PM
"this country's military leaders will get over the post-Korea obsession with police actions, 9-to-5 fly-in wars, making friends/influencing people, and trying to do things halfway and remember that you fight wars by seizing the enemy's territory, holding it, killing his fighting men, and denying the enemy the means and manpower to effectively resist."
I don't believe our military leaders have any such obsession, and I don't think they have forgotten a thing about how you win. They fight to attain the objectives prescribed by the political leadership, using the means that are allowed to them. It's always been that way in this country.
FDR allowed the firebombing of Tokyo and Dresden; Truman allowed the A-bomb against Japan but would not allow pursuit of enemy aircradt across the Yalu. LBJ prohibited bombing North Vietnam and mining Haiphong haerbor until it was far too late, and even then imposed absurd restrictions on the bombing.
I can think of no half measures or 9-to-5 fly-in tactics (whatever that means) in either Desert Torm or Iraq, other than the restrictions imposed by the civilian leadership
Posted by: Danube of Thought | March 10, 2011 at 04:17 PM
--I don't believe Bush had ever contemplated committing nearly the number of troops that Obama has sent in, but my recollection might be flawed.--
IIRC Bush/Cheney had drawn up a plan for a "surge" very similar to Obama's but didn't have time to implement it due primarily to the commitment to pacifying Iraq.
--I can think of no half measures or 9-to-5 fly-in tactics (whatever that means) in either Desert Torm or Iraq, other than the restrictions imposed by the civilian leadership.--
Precisely. We don't have a military problem. We have a civilian leadership problem that either has no strategy or advances a boneheaded, unwinnable one.
Posted by: Ignatz | March 10, 2011 at 04:41 PM
Sue, what a moving tribute to Chauncy Mays and to the beautiful people of Hopkins County.
It's hard to even write after watching the pictures and the Youtube video.
(
BTW My paternal grandparents were married in Sulphur Springs, and my paternal grandmother and her parents are buried in Sulphur Springs cemetery.)
Posted by: Frau Trauer | March 10, 2011 at 06:23 PM
We did it in South Korea. We have to get them moving politically and economically. But it took time.
Posted by: jorod | March 10, 2011 at 10:01 PM
Excellent article by Andy McCarthy re Libya and Muslim countries in general: No Intervention in Libya: In the absence of compelling national-security interests, we should stay out. McCarthy offers four reasons--well worth reading and thinking over.
Posted by: anduril | March 10, 2011 at 10:41 PM
Sober thoughts from Andy McCarthy. If the Muslims get freedom, what will they do with it?
Posted by: Frau Steingehirn | March 10, 2011 at 11:21 PM
A fair point, Frau, one recalls that MI-6 tried to arrange a hit on Kaddafi in the mid 90s, only to find out that the shooter was a
player in AQ.
Posted by: narciso | March 10, 2011 at 11:39 PM
This is the first time I've gotten to the end of the newest thread since I was away a couple days last week. Happy belated birthday Jane. Happy birthday Jim.
So good to hear those who need medical care are getting it. Some of you Wahing(DC)tonians may be acquainted with my childhood chum, Bruce Chabner(LUN), who moved from NIH to and still practices at Mass General in '95. Most tributes are prone to hype, but this one sounds like it gets my bud pretty close.
Posted by: larry | March 10, 2011 at 11:51 PM
Arab Muslims have absolutely nothing in their culture or history to prepare them for freedom. Whatever may result from these uprisings, Islamic nations and their people will be a menace to the world long after everyone now living has passed on.
Posted by: Danube of Thought | March 11, 2011 at 12:03 AM
If they just created an open opium market and let pharmaceutical companies bid for it openly instead of herbicidal destruction, the economics on the ground would change entirely.
I can't lawfully comment on much on this thread, but I can comment on this...
I've heard this theory several times in various places. You're right and you're wrong.
First, the world market for medicinal opiates is already over capacity. Turkey and the Golden Triangle beat Afghanistan to market by about 30 years. UNODC has already pretty much determined whose opiates are good opiates and whose will be illegal, and God knows we don't do anything without clearance from the UN.
Second, almost all Afghan opium that is not consumed in Afghanistan, is consumed in Iran and Russia in the form of cheap, pure heroin. The farmer who grows opium is only the first link in a long and lucrative chain. There are well developed processing, smuggling, and trafficking enterprises which can favorably compete at every step in a bidding war with pharmas. The smuggling business indirectly supports the economies of nearly every border town in Afghanistan and Baluchistan, and directly supports the bank accounts of a fair proportion of government officials in greater Central Asia. There's just too many people making too much money at every step of the way.
But herbicide isn't the way to go, for exactly all of the reasons I just mentioned. This is, and has been, a primary source of income for farmers across the southern third of Afghanistan since the 1970s. Wiping out a farmer's livelihood, particularly since many of them are under a system of indenture to the Taliban for a certain amount of opium each year, will just drive Afghans into the arms of the insurgency. People actually sell their daughters here to pay off seasonal opium obligations.
So what do we do? First, you make possession and transportation of heroin a capital offense. Period and amen. The refinement of opium to heroin reduces the physical mass (easier to smuggle), and increases the price, by a factor of ten. This will effectively reduce Taliban income potential, raise the cost of transportation, and raise the threat of interdiction.
Second, you establish a bounty system on all shipping going OUT of Afghanistan. If an Afghan Border Police guard finds a huge shipment of heroin or opium, he gets a percentage of its estimated value. You tweak the percentage based on how much the going rate for bribes is, i.e. pay a higher bribe. This pulls product out of the pipeline after all of the production costs have already been sunk, and all of the low level guys have already been paid.
Next, you get DoS off its dead ass and get a cross-border interdiction agreement with Pakistan going, or...you start clandestine operations against the big drug labs just on the Paki side of the border. BTW, Paki "pharmaceutical" companies are some of the biggest producers of Central Asian heroin out there, because they can legally purchase acetic anhydride without drawing attention to themselves. Would be a shame if a couple (dozen) of them blew up one night right after the poppy harvest. Just saying.
Finally, you run interdiction in such a way as to push the pipeline directly through Iran (circumventing Pakistan) via Herat, and through Uzbekistan into Russia. About 1 in 5 people below the age of 30 in Iran are regular users of opiates, most of it coming in from Afghanistan, and despite strict Mohammedan injunction against drug use. Russia has a well known drug problem. It's been pretty well established that drug pipelines tend to bleed product all along the way. So let's channel this crap right into the veins of two of our worst enemies. Seems like the very least we could do in return for all they've done for us over the years, particularly in Afghanistan.
But alas, no one listens to poor old Br'er Soylent...
Posted by: Soylent Red | March 11, 2011 at 01:22 AM
I like what you wrote, Soylent. Surely you can suggest this to someone who can put it into action.
Posted by: BR | March 11, 2011 at 02:34 AM
Danube, a being's basic yearning for freedom cannot be obliterated by one or more lives in a certain culture.
Today's Arab Muslim may have been a Greek at the beginning of democracy in another life.
Posted by: BR | March 11, 2011 at 02:42 AM
Humongous earthquake in Japan.
BBC is calling it an 8.9, but the amazing thing is just look at this page and see how many huge pre-shocks and aftershocks are associated with this event. USGA earthquakes.
If it stands at magnitude 8.9 it'll be the 5th strongest earthquake recorded anywhere on earth in the last 100 years. Here's an info map about that.
The New Madrid quake in 1811 that made the MIssissippi River run backward is rated at 8.1, and the San Fran Quake of 1906 is a 7.9, so that gives an idea how powerful this thing is. Our Good Friday Quake in Anchorage in 1964 was 9.2.
Thankfully I'm not in Japan at the moment.
Posted by: daddy | March 11, 2011 at 02:54 AM
An interesting coincidence?
Could 'supermoon' next week cause Earthquakes?
"9th March 2011: The web was yesterday awash with apocalyptic warnings that the movement of the moon will trigger tidal waves, volcanic eruptions and even earthquakes next week...on March 19, the moon will be closer to Earth than at any time since 1992 - just 221,567 miles away - and that its gravitational pull will bring chaos to Earth."
Posted by: daddy | March 11, 2011 at 03:12 AM
Another Barbara,
Don't know if you're awake, but the news is saying a Tsunami is heading toward Honolulu. Please let us know you're okay tomorrow.
You guys are probably all asleep, but it's 8 in the morning here in Cambridge England and almost every channel is live and breaking videos of the Japan Earthquake. Nuke plants there have all been shutdown and it looks like a huge fire at some Oil refinery.
Can't confirm if the Tokyo Airport is closed but the weather there says its light rain with a temp of 45 degrees F, and wind blowing from the north at 25 knots.
Posted by: daddy | March 11, 2011 at 03:22 AM
This fellow is worth a follow on twitter:
http://twitter.com/tokyoreporter
Posted by: glasater | March 11, 2011 at 04:08 AM
My sat TV is out but am able to follow via YouTube with a live stream from Aljeezera which is a rebroadcast of NHK TV. (Surprisingly enough, typically live stream video is a major issue for me, but not with this link.)
Japan is one problem, sure. But the cascading effects across the Pacific will undoubtedly cause great havoc for many many peoples.
Massive mobilization of emergency relief, food, shelter, fuel, medical potable water, etc in many areas will be required. Logistics, logistics, logistics. Daddy, pack you bag.
Take good care,
Sandy
Posted by: Sandy Daze | March 11, 2011 at 04:18 AM
BBC is reporting that there is a fire in the steam generator portion of a nuke plant in northern Japan.
Officials are saying via SKYNEWS that this is definitely not a situation of radiation leakage. FWIW my better half used to work in the Steam Generator portions of such plants, so from my uneducated perspective that makes sense to me.
Posted by: daddy | March 11, 2011 at 05:27 AM
Looking at this USGA Earthquake list for the affected area it is amazing to see that 19 quakes, equal to or greater than Magnitude 6.0, have struck Japan in the last 7 hours. That is amazing.
Geo-physicist on SKYNEWS is saying his quick bar napkin calculation places the amount of energy being unleashed in this entire episode in the ballpark of 100,000 Nuclear Bombs of Hiroshima size.
Posted by: daddy | March 11, 2011 at 05:42 AM
Daddy - I am not a plate-tectonics expert, that is for sure. But when you think of the activity over the last year, from Chile, to New Zealand, to volcano in Hawaii and now this massive earthquake and the secondaries, it suggests that the Pacific is not so pacific right now.
A straight earthquake I think you might have some chance of survival. When these tsunamis come through, they sweep everything before them. It looks like a crude disaster movie, watching the Japanese motorists driving down the road, looking to their left and seeing the wave come toward them. RIP.
Posted by: Sandy Daze | March 11, 2011 at 06:05 AM
Seeing the video of the huge wave rolling across the countryside helps me understand something from history I had trouble imagining. The Great Buddha of Kamakura used to be housed in a huge wooden Temple building, but a Tsunami in 1498 swept away the building and since then he has simply sat in the open air. Now I can sadly envision how it happened.
Another site says a Kamakura Tsunami in 1293 following a 7.9 quake, swept away 25,000 to 30,000 people. Fingers crossed.
More concern now about the Nuke plant mentioned earlier. Officials are now saying they are having difficulty cooling down the reactor possibly due to a lack of sufficient water in their Fail Safe system. At least that is the talk on SKYNEWS.
Breaking: Now they have issued "A State of Emergency" at the Nuke Plant, due to a failure of their cooling system to cool the core. Stand by...
Posted by: daddy | March 11, 2011 at 06:09 AM
"it suggests that the Pacific is not so pacific right now."
Very true Sandy.
SKYNEWS is doing an excellent job in their coverage today. No commercials for the last 2 hours, and very intelligent commentary. Their point jibes with yours, that the main loss of life in these things is the Tsunami. The experts are saying the shallowness of this earthquake really contributed to the Tsunami damage.
Posted by: daddy | March 11, 2011 at 06:14 AM
Just heard that the tsunami height at Guam was only 80 cm, with the implication that other islands, particularly PNG, will not suffer worse.
I heard the news conference on the nuc reactor. By itself, such a problem would be a civil emergency. Combined with implementing the consequence management efforts across society, an event like this--would this be called a Black Swan event ?--can fairly well overload even the most sophisticated of governing structures.
Posted by: Sandy Daze | March 11, 2011 at 06:20 AM
Plus they have had at least 35 aftershocks over 5.0 and 13 over 6.0. I don't care how earthquake savvy you are, these kinds of earthquake size aftershocks, coming one right after another, have got to be taking their toll on everybody's nerves.
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | March 11, 2011 at 07:04 AM
Frau,
Wow. It is rare you find someone who knows where Sulphur Springs is, let alone has a connection here. We might be cousins. ::grin::
Posted by: Sue | March 11, 2011 at 09:51 AM
My dad was born up the road in Paris.
There was one summer in my tween years that I was,uh,kinda a handful. There was talk of sending me to an uncle's farm 'round those parts for a couple months for me to get my head right. Waking up a 4,milking cows,balin' hay,cleaning stables,all that stuff.
Man,I hated that idea at the time. But today . . . what I wouldn't give to have a summer like that now.
Posted by: hit and run | March 11, 2011 at 10:20 AM
Man,I hated that idea at the time. But today . . . what I wouldn't give to have a summer like that now.
Youth is wasted on the young.
Posted by: PD | March 11, 2011 at 10:41 AM
Hit,
Around these parts, instead of anyone north of the Red River being a Yankee, we pretty much think anyone north of the Sulphur River is a Yankee.
My boss is born and bred over on the river north of Paris. He took his mother to Hawaii one year and during a conversation with someone they met there, who was from Paris (France), boss's ma chirps up and says 'hey, I'm from Paris, too'. Boss loves that story.
Posted by: Sue | March 11, 2011 at 11:31 AM
PD,
Youth wasn't wasted around our house. Those weren't summer jobs for us but everyday jobs. I know I've told stories before so won't again, but you went nowhere overnight unless you conned a sibling into doing your chores. I would have loved a cousin showing up to milk the cows, bale the hay, mend the fences, etc. You did what you could that was age appropriate. And for us, age appropriate meant whatever Granddaddy needed help with. ::grin::
I would love to go back. For a day. Not for a summer though. Too damned hot.
Posted by: Sue | March 11, 2011 at 11:35 AM
"Danube, a being's basic yearning for freedom cannot be obliterated by one or more lives in a certain culture. "
I concede the universal yearning for freedom. Translating that shared desire into a system of laws that preserve it for all is a rare and delicate thing, and the likelihood of its succeeding depends to a great extent on cultural influences.
Posted by: Danube of Thought | March 11, 2011 at 11:48 AM
I'm working on it :) The pillars of Islam are built on sand.
Posted by: BR | March 11, 2011 at 03:10 PM
cathyf: Find a sailor.
When I had my GS troop, we sent order forms in to my husband's ship, USS IwoJima (LPH-2), a helicopter landing craft that is like a mini-air craft carrier. We turned an order in for 1011 boxes of cookies. It was all great until we had to deliver them. That was a nightmare. We borrowed wagons from the girl's little brothers and even a couple of baby carriages since the ship was tied up to the pier, but the parking lot was equal to 2 city blocks away. The Officer of the Deck was staring down the gangplank at us as if we were a bunch of sci fi amoeba globs or something with a look of panic on his face. Fortunately my husband showed up and invited us onboard and assigned a work party to retrieve all the cookies.
OMG. That was 40 years ago. No, no, no, no!
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | March 11, 2011 at 03:19 PM
Wow, Sara, fabulous story!
Let me tell you how cookies work in my county -- and we are very small -- only 7 troops. Our 839 cases arrive, on palettes, at a local seed company (the guys there are wonderful and have been helping for about 10 years.) There the leaders and volunteers divide up the county order into piles for each troop's order.
This year was the first time in 6 years that I haven't done cookie delivery (had to work.) My co-leader went and picked up our 199 cases (2388 boxes) with her pickup truck, and then headed over to the school where the 8th graders formed a bucket brigade and stacked them in the old kitchen of our former convent, now music building.
After school that day, WonderBoy and one of his 16-year-old buddies (who is a Boy Scout -- it counted as his good deed for the day) went to the drop off site to pick up my cupboard order -- 111 cases. Within 15 minutes they were back at the high school with them all in the van. (They had a meeting, and then WonderBoy had play practice.) After work I went to the HS and parked the other car in the HS parking lot and then headed home. DrF and I got up at 6:30am and carried all of the cookies into the house and stacked them in my living room. Two days later we went to the school and sorted out the girls' orders. (Quote from my co-leader, "I don't think I've ever heard Cathy shout at the girls before!") That was insane, partly because we have 1 kindergartner and 7 first graders, and it's really hard to make up 15 individual piles correctly counted out of 8 varieties of cookies when you can't multiply! The crowning touch was that we were missing one box of caramel delites, and we each re-counted every frickin pile about 3 times. Finally my co-leader said, "Are you sure you added everything up right?" So I went back to the computer lab and printed out the paperwork again. And realized that I wrote down a "16" when the report said "15"! It LOOKED like 16 except when I was looking through exactly the right place on the bi-focals!
On Tuesday I went over to Council to get more cookies because the cupboard was getting bare. 73 cases into my van, in the drizzle. I'm sure glad Council has the big dolly! Cleverly, I did NOT take them into the house, though. One leader came and got half of them by backing her suv up to my van and we did trunk-to-trunk. I've been driving around with the other 36 cases since then. If you pack them carefully, they don't come flying up towards you when you stop on a steep hill...
Posted by: cathyf | March 11, 2011 at 05:18 PM
Oh, and Sara -- you should contact the San Diego GS Council office with the story and the picture. Next year (March 12, 2012) is the 100th Anniversary of the Girl Scouts, and all of the councils are doing special things. We are printing a book of stories and pictures, and if SD is doing the same thing your story is exactly what they would be looking for!
Posted by: cathyf | March 11, 2011 at 05:24 PM
Scouting paid the bills in our house. My Mother was the Executive Director in the Council where I grew up and went thru scouting myself. When I was a senior in h.s., she was offered the ED position in Buffalo, NY. She didn't see why it was such a big deal to take me out of the only school system I'd ever known and make me transfer in my senior year. While I was away at school, she went to National in NYC as the National Budget Director and Fund Raiser. From there she took the ED position in DesPlaines, IL and finally she made her way back to her home state of California with the ED position in Pomona Valley.
It is funny you mention the 100th. I got an email last month from a woman at Talas Rock Council in my hometown asking if I might have any old pictures of camps or other scouting events. I have boxes and boxes plus a video shot in 1943 at Blue Knob camp. Well originally it was two rolls of 16 milimetere film, but I had it put on video about 15 years ago and know I'm thinking of having them put on CD. Plus I have play bills for events, copies of speeches my Mother made all over the country, all kinds of awards she was given over the years, all of which I'm willing to donate. I also have a picture of her giving a seminar with her trusty visual aids, posterboard on an easel, that happened at the Juliet Lowe house in Savannah.
I have a couple of boxes of Roundup stuff that was actually mine but it goes way back, I still have sashes and pins, I was a curved bar scout. About the only thing I think I'm going to keep is my Mother's scout pin. It is solid gold and is engraved. It was a thank you gift to her when she went to Buffalo.
Lastly, my Mother had prearranged her funeral and burial arrangements and prepaid for them as well as her tombstone. All I had to do was sign a couple of papers and all the decisions were already made. When the cemetery called to say the gravestone was in place, we took a day trip to take some flowers, have our own private goodbye and memorial and see the stone in place. Imagine my surprise when I saw it had a trefoil embossed on it. My Mother took her first ED job when I was five, but before that she was President of the Council and also worked as the Camp Director before I was born and up to when she took the professional paid position. I went to camp with her for the first time when I was just a couple months old, sleeping in a crib in the infirmary, the only heated building.
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | March 11, 2011 at 07:03 PM
When I was a GS cookies sold for 40 cents/box.
Posted by: caro | March 12, 2011 at 11:02 AM
I have this conversation all the time with WonderBoy's high school friends. "Three-fifty?!? When I was a girl scout it was $3!" To which I reply, "When I was a kid it was 50 cents..."
(It's on that list of stock replies, like "Kid, I've got shoes older than you!" To bring it around to girl scouts, I recently realized that I've got shoes older than my co-leader!)
Posted by: cathyf | March 12, 2011 at 02:40 PM
This thread is still open. Perhaps Sunday Morning should shift to here.
Posted by: Thomas Collins | March 15, 2011 at 12:59 PM