It smells like... victory.
But if (IF!) the rebels can capture or overthrow Qadaffi, will they be able to form a government? The aftermath in Iraq, Afghanistan and Yugolslavia suggests that these artifical countries formed of rival tribes don't come together as orderly democracies very neatly.
And will Obama get a Qadaffi bounce? Alan Silverleib of CNN thinks its still the economy. To which I would add, after months of leading from behind and avoiding the topic of our seemingly stalled effort in Libya, it won't be easy for Obama to claim all the credit for what may be a success. Beyond that, it may be premature - does Obama want to claim ownership today of what may turn into a tribal civil war?
chickens are being counted ...
Posted by: Jeff | August 23, 2011 at 12:10 PM
From the first article linked in TM's post:
Checkmating the king is turning out to be somewhat more difficult than first reported.
Posted by: Thomas Collins | August 23, 2011 at 12:12 PM
LUN for bgates (and of course for MayBee).
Posted by: Thomas Collins | August 23, 2011 at 12:17 PM
This all sounds pretty hinky to me. I'm not believing any of it yet.
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 12:30 PM
Meanwhile Obama has shattered his -23/-24 lows, diving deep to a new Raz record of -26!
He has broken through.
Unless Obama delivers the Mother of All Obama Speeches post-Labor Day, I don't think he's coming back.
Posted by: huxley | August 23, 2011 at 12:30 PM
President "gutsy call," you wingers.
Posted by: lyle | August 23, 2011 at 12:44 PM
I have never seen anything quite like these rebels. How on earth did they defeat any trained military units? Bizarre.
Posted by: Danube of Thought | August 23, 2011 at 12:48 PM
bgates sure knows how to celebrate a bd. Not only does he get a present directly from RAZ, but he shares it with all of us.
Happy BD, bgates.
Posted by: Jim Rhoads a/k/a vnjagvet | August 23, 2011 at 12:50 PM
I can't figure out how to link it, since it's not an image file, but the Gallup Daily: Obama Job Approval chart is a nice one, too. I just hope he's able to keep his approval high enough that he won't have to drop out of the race.
Posted by: Extraneus | August 23, 2011 at 12:51 PM
The bounce will arrive anon. Days not weeks. Within 24 business hours most likely.
Posted by: Elliott | August 23, 2011 at 12:52 PM
These rebels are mere factotums of the NATO forces which are the amanuensies of Obama's war on peace.
Posted by: MarkO | August 23, 2011 at 12:54 PM
MFM awaiting talking points from White House giving Obama all the credit for success in Libya......Unless the rebels can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Posted by: Elroy Jetson | August 23, 2011 at 01:04 PM
I just hope we get an honest accounting of what we've put into this war. Certainly we didn't put any debate or Congressional approval into it. But I'd like to know who we've got there fighting with/for that ragtag band of "rebels".
Obama and much of the media seem quite content to pretend this is all just magically happening.
Posted by: MayBee | August 23, 2011 at 01:05 PM
It would be like Obama to claim credit for something he said he wasn't doing. That's he entire life history.
Posted by: MarkO | August 23, 2011 at 01:08 PM
Ext,
I could be wrong, but the downward approval trendline since late May appears to be, by far, the steepest slide of his term.
It's going to be hard to pull out of this one - a "victory" in Libya isn't going to do it, and neither is an empty jobs speech.
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 01:11 PM
Muammar don't surf!
Posted by: Cecil Turner | August 23, 2011 at 01:13 PM
I'm pretty worried that Hillary has the witch outfit on and is cackling into a crystal ball.
Posted by: Extraneus | August 23, 2011 at 01:15 PM
I fully encourage her, Ext. Not only would it be amusing beyond all worlds to watch, it would be a great help (as Kennedy's challenge was to Reagan). She can't take the nomination away from him because the thugs in the Dem party wouldn't permit it, and they'd be afraid of race riots and the black vote staying home. But she would weaken him to the brink of landslide territory for the GOP nominee.
I don't think she'll do it. But I'd welcome it.
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 01:19 PM
I'm pretty worried that Hillary has the witch outfit on and is cackling into a crystal ball.
And this is different from her normal mien...how, exactly?
Posted by: lyle | August 23, 2011 at 01:23 PM
I don't see Libya doing anything for Obama. A consequence of "leading from behind" is that you don't get to take much of the credit.
(BTW, if Obama was going to do this war,I am cool with the way he did it. The Irag and Afghanistan models have not turned out so well for the US, have they?)
Posted by: Appalled | August 23, 2011 at 01:23 PM
(I am not cool with the no Congrssional approval part of things. This has to be the most Nixonian presidency since Nixon in terms of doing things by administrative fiat as a matter of course.)
Posted by: Appalled | August 23, 2011 at 01:24 PM
And one final point. Obama has gotten little benefit from taking down Obama, and looks to get none for helping take down Daffy. If this were a GOP President, I think there would be a lot more of a bounce.
What does this say? Mostly, that the GOP has a lot more of its political mojo invested in foreign affairs and, alas, foreign military actions.
Posted by: Appalled | August 23, 2011 at 01:28 PM
Obama has gotten little benefit from taking down Obama,
I meant Osama, though, frighteningly, that sentence makes sense the way I wrote it...
Posted by: Appalled | August 23, 2011 at 01:31 PM
Obama has gotten little benefit from taking down Obama
To be expected, really. ;)
What does this say? Mostly, that the GOP has a lot more of its political mojo invested in foreign affairs and, alas, foreign military actions.
I don't think it says that at all. I think it says that the economy in its current condition (and Obama's responsibility for it) dwarfs all, and also perhaps that Obama's spiking the ball over the Osama kill turned off as many people as it turned on.
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 01:33 PM
I don't think she'll do it. But I'd welcome it.
Not me. I don't thinks she'd take him on head-to-head, but if he decides to do an LBJ...
I like our chances better against the Won.
Posted by: Extraneus | August 23, 2011 at 01:34 PM
BGates,
No fewer than 5 of my best friends have birthdays from 8-20 to 8-23 and even Mr Left.
I just love those LEO's!
Posted by: Jane | August 23, 2011 at 01:35 PM
We keep hearing that Obama is a "clutch player." So now's the time to see what he's got.
I think he's tapped out. He's been in big trouble since the Senate rejected his budget plan 97-0 in May. It got worse with the debt ceiling talks.
He threatened Cantor ("Don't call my bluff, Eric") that he would go to the American people. He did. Obama arrived fifty minutes late and talked for eight minutes on the economy blaming everyone but himself. The stock market dropped two hundred points during the speech and his polls followed.
Then he got into a humongous jet black bus (sans American flag) and made a three-day tour getting down with the midwest folks. More nothingburger, followed by an ultra-rich vacation in Martha's Vineyard with terrible optics.
Nothing works. He can't go left, he can't go right, he can't float above the fray, and he can't get down in the gutter.
The worst of it, I suspect, is that Americans now see that Obama has never had a real plan for jobs other than the sheer magnificence of his presence and the billions shoveled into the Oz world of "green jobs."
Posted by: huxley | August 23, 2011 at 01:36 PM
Has anyone seen an analysis adjusting these numbers for folks who are likely to "come home to progism" in Nov. of 2012? If Obama's drop is with non-core but prog leaning voters, these numbers I think don't present a realistic picture. With urban fraud, persuadable independents being manipulated by MSM and Axelplouffe's expertise at slice and dice (not to mention Sugar Daddy Ben putting off the reckoning until 2013 with some more QECrack), Obama could still reach 48%, which could be enough for an Electoral College victory (Ford came very close to doing this in 1976, and Kerry might have done it in 2004 if many of Cuyahoga County, Ohio's Dems and Dems in other parts of Ohio hadn't stayed home).
Posted by: Thomas Collins | August 23, 2011 at 01:40 PM
I like our chances better against the Won.
Why? Why would anyone think another dem could do a better job? They all want bigger government, and most people have figured out that is the problem. In fact there seems to be a surge in the "government is too big' people.
The far left wants Bernie Sanders, and the rest of them want Hillary who has doesn't seem like much of a threat these days.
Actually I'd love to see him primaried. If he got ridden out by his own kind his psyche would never ever recover.
Posted by: Jane | August 23, 2011 at 01:41 PM
Not me. I don't thinks she'd take him on head-to-head, but if he decides to do an LBJ...
I like our chances better against the Won.
Yeah, pulling an LBJ would be different. I thought you were talking about a primary challenge.
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 01:41 PM
A belated happy birthday to Dana/Ben Franklin. Dana, I'd advise you to start drawing your SS at the earliest possible date (some time in the next year).
Posted by: Danube of Thought | August 23, 2011 at 01:43 PM
Actually I'd love to see him primaried. If he got ridden out by his own kind his psyche would never ever recover.
I'm sure he considers marginalizing the Clintons to be one of his greatest political accomplishments. Sure would be fun to see them take him down (as long as it doesn't threaten a GOP win).
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 01:43 PM
I don't think Hillary deposing Obama makes the Dems more likely to win. But it could severely weaken Obama (as Reagan did to Ford in 1976 and Teddy Bare did to Carter in 1980). In any event, I don't think Hillary's plan is to depose Obama. I think her plan is to wait until 2016.
Posted by: Thomas Collins | August 23, 2011 at 01:44 PM
His whole plan was to reward his friends, punish his enemies, and take credit for a natural cyclical recovery for which his policies had no responsibility.
Posted by: Extraneus | August 23, 2011 at 01:45 PM
The draft Constitution starts by affirming Sharia Law as the sole basis for law in Libya. All further reference to the rule of law is merely a reference back to Sharia.
A tribal civil war in Libya at this point would be the best possible outcome. The more likely outcome will be the establishment of a sham democracracy and the imposition of Sharia Law. In other words, at our own taxpayer expense, we've helped force a regime change from a brutal dictatorship to an Islamic Republic. Way to go from bad to horribly worse.
Posted by: Callawyn | August 23, 2011 at 01:46 PM
Has anyone seen an analysis adjusting these numbers for folks who are likely to "come home to progism" in Nov. of 2012?
TC, I think most progs who vote will be there for him. It's more a question of turnout. He won in 2008 with big turnout. He needs even bigger turnout in 2012 to overcome his miserable ratings, and he ain't gonna get it. His major constituencies are dispirited and he's lost everyone else.
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 01:48 PM
"...the GOP has a lot more of its political mojo invested in foreign affairs and, alas, foreign military actions."
Vietnam? Bosnia? Kosovo? Somalia? Yemen? The Afghanistan surge? All Dem initiatives, though admittedly not with much of a mojo return.
Posted by: Danube of Thought | August 23, 2011 at 01:48 PM
Hillary won't challenge.
Posted by: Danube of Thought | August 23, 2011 at 01:49 PM
I'm pretty worried that Hillary has the witch outfit on
Oh no. The witch outfit? Please no. I've been good....
Posted by: Bubba having a flashback | August 23, 2011 at 01:51 PM
I'm pretty worried that Hillary has the witch outfit on
Oh no. The witch outfit? Please no. I've been good....
Posted by: Huma having a flashback | August 23, 2011 at 01:51 PM
Hillary won't challenge.
I don't think so either.
Might Hill and Bill convince someone else to do it, with promise of a later reward? Isn't Evan Bayh a Clintonista?
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 01:52 PM
Happy B-day, bgates!
Posted by: Threadkiller | August 23, 2011 at 01:55 PM
I think we just had an earthquake! I've never experienced one before. I live in Northern Virginia....wow.
Posted by: Janet | August 23, 2011 at 01:55 PM
Seeing Twitter reports of earthquake in DC. Everyone okay?
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 01:56 PM
Save the melons!
Posted by: Threadkiller | August 23, 2011 at 01:56 PM
Let's encourage the progs to go on a two month cruise (Oct. and Nov. of 2012) to Fidel's island paradise, Porchlight.
Posted by: Thomas Collins | August 23, 2011 at 01:57 PM
Wow Janet- don't they feel crazy?
Posted by: MayBee | August 23, 2011 at 01:57 PM
Wow...reports of quake being felt all over - PA, NJ, NYC, VA, NC....
see this thread on FreeRepublic:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2767906/posts
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 01:58 PM
Janet did you just have an earthquake?
Posted by: centralcal | August 23, 2011 at 01:58 PM
Hillary could argue that we had a surplus under a Clinton administration. (Never mind that it was due to the R's taking over the Congress in 1994.) She could claim to be more moderate than Obama, splitting the distance between the two "extremes." She could win over disaffected Dems and some Independents who aren't going to pull it for Obama again.
Weakened, yes, but I hope he's still breathing in 2012. The last thing we need is Hillary as a candidate.
Btw, I was dead set against Republicans making such a big deal about Howard Dean's "AAAAAARGHHHHH!" moment, too. Lurch was probably a better general election candidate than Dean would have been.
Posted by: Extraneus | August 23, 2011 at 01:59 PM
Good grief. Earthquake in DC. Janet? Clarice? You okay?
Posted by: Sue | August 23, 2011 at 02:02 PM
Lurch was probably a better general election candidate than Dean would have been.
And he nearly won. But I am of the firm belief that Dean was toast even before the scream, and couldn't have won the nom.
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 02:02 PM
Per ABC Radio...Pentagon being evacuated because of earthquake.
Posted by: Sue | August 23, 2011 at 02:03 PM
NewYorkPost New York Post
by jtLOL
BREAKING 5.8 EARTHQUAKE HITS DC -EPICENTER IN VIRGINIA 87 MILES FROM CAPITOL
Sounds like it was a pretty strong jolt. And you all thought only us Californians had earthquakes. lol!
Posted by: centralcal | August 23, 2011 at 02:03 PM
5.8 between Charlottesville and Richmond. mrs hit and run just called to say she felt it. We're roughly 3 hours away by car.
Posted by: hit and run | August 23, 2011 at 02:04 PM
Reuters is reporting it was a 6.2.
Posted by: Sue | August 23, 2011 at 02:05 PM
Carp--- A Virginia Earthquake.
Another unforeseen bit of bad luck Obama can now blame for increasing the Debt another Billion or so.
Posted by: daddy | August 23, 2011 at 02:06 PM
Oh Lordy, I think we just had an earthquake tremor! The whole house swayed ever so slightly, lampshades vibrated, and it sounded like huge raindrops were splattering on the roof which must have been the rafters crackling, because nary a drop hit the ground and there was not breath of wind. Either that, or someone silently dropped a redwood next door. It's actually made me woozy!
What's really creepy though, is that just yesterday I was remarking on how lucky it is that we don't have to worry about hurricanes, and tsunamis, and mega tornadoes.... or earthquakes in this part of the country.
Posted by: JM Hanes | August 23, 2011 at 02:06 PM
Palin predicted Obama would come home early from his vacay. Maybe this is her way of making it happen. ;)
Posted by: Porchlight | August 23, 2011 at 02:08 PM
I have just been evacuated a
Ong with thousands in judicial bldgs in DC
Posted by: Clarice | August 23, 2011 at 02:08 PM
JMH,
Ruh...roh...you called it down upon yourself, no? ::grin::
Posted by: Sue | August 23, 2011 at 02:09 PM
ha ha ha ha ha ha
DonaldJTrumpJr Donald Trump Jr.
by edmondesq
Breaking news: Obama blames 6.0 earthquake on Bush! Ha couldn't resist;)!!!!
Posted by: centralcal | August 23, 2011 at 02:10 PM
OMG, Clarice. Not sure where you are but not home, it seems. Be careful.
Posted by: Sue | August 23, 2011 at 02:10 PM
USGS: 5.9
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/usc0005ild.php
Posted by: hit and run | August 23, 2011 at 02:11 PM
Is The Wolverine visiting DC?
Posted by: MayBee | August 23, 2011 at 02:12 PM
We felt it in Rome, NY. Mild.
Posted by: sbw | August 23, 2011 at 02:13 PM
A new low in the Gallup 3 day as well:
President Obama Job Approval
Gallup
Approve 38
Disapprove 54
Disapprove +16.0
Rasmussen Reports
Approve 44
Disapprove 56
Disapprove +12.0
If anything, it looks like the Libya situation is dragging him lower rather than higher. Maybe its just one more reminder of how empty his words are. In this case "Days, not weeks," rings pretty howllow 6 months later.
Posted by: Ranger | August 23, 2011 at 02:15 PM
Wow Janet- don't they feel crazy?
yeah...I was out talking with neighbors.
Save the melons!
Hahaha...they're fine. Praise the Lord!
Posted by: Janet | August 23, 2011 at 02:15 PM
Some folks at my workplace (Financial District, Boston, MA) said they felt something, but I didn't.
Posted by: Thomas Collins | August 23, 2011 at 02:16 PM
There's no way for any Democrat to challenge Obama without doing terrible damage to the black voting bloc.
I'm a fan of the Obama/LBJ scenario but I doubt Hillary will be any better competition in 2012.
If Obama drops out, he leaves a Messiah-sized crater in the Democratic psyche that Hillary can't overcome. She's too close to Obama politically, she was part of his administration with a weak record, and she doesn't have the crowd appeal that Democrats seem to need.
Posted by: huxley | August 23, 2011 at 02:17 PM
The earth moved. Was it good for you, too?
Posted by: sbw | August 23, 2011 at 02:18 PM
Clarice will undoubtedly be let out early today. No damage so far.
My niece and I were on the phone when it happened. She is in NJ filling her car with gas. While she was getting gas she thought the people (Muslims) in the car behind her were shaking her car and she almost got out to ask them why they were doing it. Later in the conversation she got a text from a friend and realized it hit Jersey too.
Posted by: Jane | August 23, 2011 at 02:20 PM
♫ I feel the earth - move - under my feet ♪
Posted by: Sue | August 23, 2011 at 02:21 PM
Obama has gotten little benefit from taking down Obama,
I chuckled. Somehow the Sheriff from the movie Blazing Saddles jumped into my head. Gun firmly placed to his own temple he commands " No one move or the n word gets it." A classic.
Posted by: Gmax | August 23, 2011 at 02:23 PM
An earthquake in DC as the 2012 election season starts? I take it as an ill omen for the Ruling Class...
Let's just hope there is minimal damage and no one is hurt.
Posted by: Ranger | August 23, 2011 at 02:24 PM
I tell ya, the Mayans were pretty smart.
Posted by: Jane | August 23, 2011 at 02:24 PM
Bam will go carefully on this Libya thing, because no one knows what will happen in the next weeks and even months -- especially the Libyans. Course-- if Bam wants to break out the "Mission Accomplished" banner and head to Aviano or NAS Sigonella -- he can be my guest.
Posted by: NK | August 23, 2011 at 02:24 PM
Cecil Turner-- BTW, excellent Apocalypse Now reference-- probably a top 3 line from that movie.
Posted by: NK | August 23, 2011 at 02:27 PM
WSJ breaking news link
I love those guys -- don't have a story up yet, so rather than linking to blather, they link to some minimal but useful site.
Posted by: cathyf | August 23, 2011 at 02:27 PM
Hey Tom--
did you feel the quake in Ct.?
Posted by: NK | August 23, 2011 at 02:27 PM
The only viable Hillary scenario I see is -- and let me be perfectly clear that I am being entirely hypothetical -- assassination.
If Obama were assassinated, it would clear the path and re-energize Democrats and independents to elect Hillary Clinton.
Obama's death would be a horror at all levels and I pray that it does not occur. It would be one of the worst things that could happen to America.
Posted by: huxley | August 23, 2011 at 02:28 PM
We have been sending AC-130 gunships and bombers against the Qadaffi elements while the Euros have sent in strike aircraft. It sounds like the only coherent leadership on the ground is that provided by the Euros and perhaps our own people.
We are really, really good at shock and awe but really, really bad at everything that comes afterwards.
Posted by: matt | August 23, 2011 at 02:30 PM
Vi for about siting Stokes County NC and felt it for about 20 seconds
Posted by: BB Key | August 23, 2011 at 02:31 PM
The epicenter was near Richmond. As strong as the largest magnitude event in Virginia seismic region on record (back to 1600-1700s).
Posted by: JM Hanes | August 23, 2011 at 02:32 PM
I meant to add that from all of the photos I have seen so far to assume that these clowns are capable of coherent warfare is just plain ill informed.
That Qadaffi's supporters don't seem to be able to hold against them is somewhat amazing except when they are faced with Euro fighter bombers, attack helicopters and said AC-130's.
I fear this is going to be a real mess, but as long as the oil keeps flowing the Euros will be happy. Make no mistake. This war especially is about oil.
Posted by: matt | August 23, 2011 at 02:34 PM
My son (DC) and older daughter and son-in-law (Northern Virginia), all said it gave them quite a rockin' and rollin' (my phrase, but that's in substance what they said).
Posted by: Thomas Collins | August 23, 2011 at 02:35 PM
Nuclear plant near Richmond has been shut down (as a precaution, or for inspection ,I assume).
Posted by: JM Hanes | August 23, 2011 at 02:35 PM
Shook up my Keyboard....Visiting in Stokes Co. NC lasted about 20 secs. felt like a car hit the building
Posted by: BB Key | August 23, 2011 at 02:36 PM
All kinds of reports on Twitter about folks losing cell phone service.
Have been through numerous earthquakes, never ever heard of anyone losing phone service - cell or otherwise! What's up with that?
Posted by: centralcal | August 23, 2011 at 02:36 PM
TM, you're helping us be more productive at work! See LUN.
Posted by: Thomas Collins | August 23, 2011 at 02:43 PM
Pentagon, US Capitol evacuated...
Shakes Manhattan...
Felt from NH to Atlanta...
Less than 4 miles deep...
Comes day after rare big tremor hits Colo...
Obama was on golf course... Developing...
Obama's got the right priorities.
Posted by: RichatUF | August 23, 2011 at 02:44 PM
CC, just all us ignorant easterners trying to call everbody we know. my daughter in NY and and son in PA felt it....My sister in VA did not because she was on the interstate near Charlottesville
Posted by: BB Key | August 23, 2011 at 02:46 PM
Pentagon, US Capitol evacuated...
Just read a post from a Pentagon staffer, the evacuation bit is not true. Building has been ruled structually sound and its business as usual there. First reports of natural disasters and war are rarely accurate it seems...
Posted by: Gmax | August 23, 2011 at 02:55 PM
Are all you Californians and Japanese out there laughing at us Atlantic Coasters?
Posted by: Thomas Collins | August 23, 2011 at 02:55 PM
The rock there is hard, so it transmits the energy of the quake much further that softer soils. Which is good -- the same energy over a larger area means less damage close to the epicenter.
Posted by: cathyf | August 23, 2011 at 02:56 PM
This LUN will give you much info
Posted by: Agent J | August 23, 2011 at 03:00 PM
CNN reports they felt it in Detroit.
Posted by: JM Hanes | August 23, 2011 at 03:00 PM
cathyf must know, located as she must be ... between the rock and a hard place.
Posted by: sbw | August 23, 2011 at 03:00 PM
Now this is a photo!
DC Earthquake Devastation.
(snort!)
Posted by: centralcal | August 23, 2011 at 03:01 PM
National Cathedral has pieces fallen off of it. It's being inspected.
Posted by: Melinda Romanoff | August 23, 2011 at 03:01 PM