Pulling The Band-Aid On The Health Care Mandate, Take Two

Mickey Kaus suggests that Team Obama might benefit from a quick Supreme Court decision overturning the health care mandate:

If the law is as unpopular as it seems to be, and if the individual mandate is “the most hated piece of the law,” then the Court, by removing the threat of the law, or at least the mandate, on constitutional grounds, would remove a big reason to oppose Obama, no? Health care “repealers” could reelect the President without fear that he’d require them to buy insurance–or, if the entire law collapses, without fear that the law would not be repealed over his veto.

Interesting.  I had mumbled something similar earlier this week before deciding against the idea:

Obamacare does not poll well and Republicans will be campaigning on its repeal whatever the Supremes decide.  And (just thinking out loud here) Obama might actually benefit from a Supreme Court ruling against Obamacare, since it would give him an excuse to give the people what they want.  Put another way, if the Supreme Court upholds Obamacare it will be obvious that the only way to end it is to end Obama's reign.

AllahPundit didn't buy that notion:

Interesting point, but having a conservative Court uphold the mandate would be a huge psychological boost for Obama and the left and might even help legitimize the program to independents who have been lukewarm about it until now. Don’t forget either that the White House is expecting Romney to be the GOP nominee. Even if grassroots conservatives feel energized by the Court decision, how jacked up can they be to replace Obama with … the architect of RomneyCare, who did more than anyone else until The One himself to introduce health-care mandates to America?

What I can’t figure out, though, is why O would run the risk of the mandate being struck down before the election. That would be demoralizing for the left and delegitimizing for Obama. What’s left of his first term if his signature domestic policy “achievement” ends up rubbished by SCOTUS as a violation of the Commerce Clause? I guess the thinking is that if the mandate is struck down, he can point to it as proof for liberals that they desperately need to appoint more left-wing justices to the Court and the only way to do that is to re-elect him. But even so, Obama’s not the kind of guy who wants to deal with X factors in the middle of the campaign: That’s why the Bush tax cuts were extended until after election day and why he insisted on a debt-ceiling deal that would carry through past November of next year. Now suddenly, by bypassing the 11th Circuit rehearing, he’s risking the Court dropping a flaming bag of shinola on his doorstep four months before the polls open. He must be awwwwwwfully confident that he’s going to win.

It's possible that Obama is a victim of lefty epistemic closure, where everyone he knows thinks ObamaCare is the cat's meow.  Or, he may have experts telling him he will win at the Supreme Court.  Here is Orin Kerr predicting that the mandate will be upheld with 6 to 8 votes (Thomas is his only sure "no".)  Eva Rodriguez at the WaPo makes a similar calculation, as does Robert Barnes.

Or for more fanciful thinking - would a Supreme Court rejection of the individual mandate re-vitalize the left by reviving the public option?  I can't imagine Obama wanting to run on "Health Care II - This Times, Let's Keep It Legal", but who knows?

Comments

[glasater]

I think the Perry Campaign should hire boris to explain Perry's message;)

[boris]

here here

[glasater]

The Perry campaign needs you, boris! I'm working on it:)