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February 03, 2012

Comments

DrJ

Rick,

I for one would be interested in what you find re the census and UE. That there are a lot of Asians on visas is clear: look at the origin of the students in science or engineering at any graduate school. These days the preponderance are from India or China.

The "granny effect" I've not considered, and I have no idea if it is real.

Jane

Well you should all sign up for this year's post election cruise. If we win it will be the best time ever, and if we lose Jim Geraghty promises we won't be coming back.

Porchlight

daddy, that was fantastic. I wish I could meet up in Seattle but instead I will just have to be JOMless in Austin.

But guys, it's a great town, and it's nice and warm this winter thanks to La Nina....

Porchlight

If we lose we should get NRO to just go and dock at St. Jane's.

DrJ

the newly minted degree recipients would go offshore

narciso, those newly-minted graduates try everything they can to stay in the country. Certainly there are some exceptions, but they are few.

The lovely and charming MrsJ is a recruiter, placing people in sales, marketing, and business development positions with biotech companies. She always is flooded with resumes from Indians and Chinese without green cards.

In the business-related areas there is nothing she can do for them. Companies simply won't hire them. They will for the technical positions, and after five years or so when their immigration status is cleared, then they can move to the field.

You would be surprised how many candidates argue with her about this situation.

narciso

Is this the main driving, because the numbers seem relatively small;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B_visa

Jane

If we lose we should get NRO to just go and dock at St. Jane's.

Oh they will definitely do that. Are you ready to spend eternity with Mark Steyn?

Porchlight

Why yes, yes I am.

narciso

Speeaking of settled science;

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/02/02/new-alien-planet-is-perfect-for-life-scientists-say/#ixzz1lHiIwAND

Jane

Why yes, yes I am.

Me too.

According to Caro, we are now able to sign up. It will fill up very quickly I suspect, so go do it! I'd like to have met 30 JOmers by the time it is over.

Sue

Daddy,

Your local party chair can help you with a list of voters. Call the clerk of the court on who was excused.

Caro

I am excited that Jimmy P will be on the cruise. And St. Janes is the first stop. Breitbart,too,as well as the usual suspects.

matt

I just picked up my weekly local newspaper and found out that Obama will be visiting Corona Del Mar for a $35,000/person fundraiser after having one in Beverly Hills hosted by Will Ferrell the night before.

So much for the war on the 1%.

The host in town is real estate developer rumored to be in deep financial doo doo, and one of the other sponsors is a Getty trust funder.

No worries. The host get his bacon saved by President pay for play and she's stinkin rich.

matt

Rick;

The UC system is actively recruiting students from Asia for their out of state tuition.Same with other state universities.

Except some of their parents are a bit too smart. The parents buy real estate in state years ahead and then can claim in state tuition.

Dueling Imanjos.

I think that is Barack Obama @ 3:35 of Ext's 7:27 link, but I could be wrong.
==========

Porchlight

Sounds great, Jane. I wish VDH was going to be there, too.

narciso

Is this the one, Matt;

http://articles.dailypilot.com/2012-02-01/news/tn-dpt-0202-obama-20120201_1_obama-victory-fund-president-obama-plans-holmby-hills-estate

He also appears in a fundraiser back in July 2008, just folk after all;

OldTimer

OldLurker @ 8:32 - I'm reading Goldman's book which is rather fascinating. So much of what I thought I understood about the Islamic system is challenged by the facts in his book. He provides a bounty of research and investigative interpretations to arrive at some very interesting demographic conclusions. He has charts showing how Muslim countries' fertility is falling much faster than the world average; Iran has fallen almost six children per woman.


Here's an American Thinker article about 'Spengler', aka David Goldman and his writings on this subject.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/11/a_double-dose_of_spengler.html

Jane

He usually is Porch. I haven't seen the list but I bet Caro has.

Janet

Is that a record?

I think so, Jane. I've met 12 JOMers so far, but I've got an advantage of living near DC & JOMers came here for the Tea Party rallies.

daddy

Sue,

Thanks for that info:

Clerk of the Court, and my local Party Chair. That sounds doable.

OldTimer

Zero Hedge via Insty - LUN

Sick of the BLS propaganda? Then do the following calculation with us: using BLS data, the US civilian non-institutional population was 242,269 in January, an increase of 1.7 million month over month: apply the long-term average labor force participation rate of 65.8% to this number (because as chart 2 below shows, people are not retiring as the popular propaganda goes: in fact labor participation in those aged 55 and over has been soaring as more and more old people have to work overtime, forget retiring), and you get 159.4 million: that is what the real labor force should be. The BLS reported one? 154.4 million: a tiny 5 million difference. Then add these people who the BLS is purposefully ignoring yet who most certainly are in dire need of labor and/or a job to the 12.758 million reported unemployed by the BLS and you get 17.776 million in real unemployed workers. What does this mean? That using just the BLS denominator in calculating the unemployed rate of 154.4 million, the real unemployment rate actually rose in January to 11.5%. Compare that with the BLS reported decline from 8.5% to 8.3%. It also means that the spread between the reported and implied unemployment rate just soared to a fresh 30 year high of 3.2%. And that is how with a calculator and just one minute of math, one strips away countless hours of BLS propaganda.

Rick Ballard

"the newly minted degree recipients would go offshore"

Narciso,

First, there are the overstays that DrJ mentions. Second, someone here on a student visa at the time of the Census becomes a part of the general population but does not, per their visa restrictions, become part of the labor force. Their presence reduces the participation rate.

DrJ,

I believe that the Asian Granny total will fall in the 200K-300K range based upon the M/F imbalance in the Census adjustment. That's a real WAG (no science was abused in my supposition). I have to study the 'visas issued for family reunification' a bit to verify. The ZeroHedge piece was a bit of a knee jerk rather than a close examination.

Caro

Here is the speaker list. So far. LUN

DrJ

Rick,

I look forward to your analysis of the census/UE data. It will be a very political topic of course.

cathyf
Naples resident Yvonne Wigglesworth is also a not a citizen, but is registered to vote. She claims she doesn't know how she got registered. Records show Wigglesworth voted six times in elections dating back eleven years."
Notice the careful wording -- they interviewed Ms Wigglesworth but managed to avoid asking her the most important question: when the records show that "Yvonne Wigglesworth" voted, was that HER? Or did she have no idea that she was registered, and someone else was voting using her registration? Isn't it just remarkable how lacking in curiosity the MSM is?

(I think I've told this story before... My grandmother died in Jan 2010, in a nursing home in Chicago, where she had been since 2002 when her alzheimers got to be so severe that my parents couldn't take care of her at their home, which is in the suburbs. While she was born in Chicago, she had not been a resident there between 1941 and 2002.

The nursing home continued to forward her mail to my parents after she died, and they would get an occasional piece of mail for many months. Including, that summer, a jury summons. In Illinois, you don't get called for jury duty unless you are on the voter rolls. The new family mystery became just who registered her to vote?

Catholics have this custom that on All Souls Day, which is always Nov 2nd, we pray especially for anyone who has died in the previous year. So my parents went to the Mass on Nov 2, 2010 at their parish. Tuesday, Nov 2. At one point my mom leaned over and whispered to my dad, "So, do you think your mom voted today?")

Melinda Romanoff

Caro-

When you lived by the Reservoirs in W.Hartford, did you know the Wilcox family on Thicket (3 daughters)?

Frau Steingehirn

Caro, that's some list. IMHO Bernard Lewis, alone, is worth the trip. Is the day long enough on such a cruise to hear even half the group?

Rick Ballard

DrJ,

I'm not sure that government statistical ephemera are really going to be that hot a political topic until Uncle Bob, Aunt Sally and their kids move out of the rec room in the basement.

I've been saying for years that the BLS projections on workforce participation are delusional. The Boomers just aren't going to stay in harness as did the Not So Greatest generation in the '90s. The projections made assumptions concerning how and when the IRA money would be spent out that simply won't hold up. They also assumed that the black economy could not possibly grow as quickly as it has. Funny how a total mistrust in government will drive the taxable economy right into the ground and out of sight.

Melinda Romanoff

Rick-

In table A-1 of the Household Data(Page 15), do you think the employment to population percentage should be flat for a whole year?

I think this is the math "pivot" that they're holding constant.

Makes no sense to me.

(And G'night all.)

Old Lurker

Thanks Old Timer at 10:10. Our difference might be that the chart I saw was ranking the world wide growth of major religions and your numbers seem to be specific countries. I will check again in case I am misremembering. I also enjoyed your takedown of the BLS BS.

glasater

I used a BLS statistic in an argument in comments from a Politico article and a bunch of progs came after me for using conservative numbers.
The interesting part was I had signed in to the Politico article to make the comment using my FaceBook ID and the "conversation" followed me to my FB page. Don't think I'll do that one again ;)

narciso

'Couldn't happen to a nicer bloke' sarc;


http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/02/03/british-climate-change-minister-headed-for-hoosegow/#comments

Danube of Thought

I feel pretty strongly that the BLS numbers, however reliable or unreliable they may inherently be, are not manipulated for any political purpose. Ditto the CBO.

Just sayin'.

Clarice

I just read the WI report. I don't know what's funnier the write in idea, the GAB stupid response or Jane's

"Gee, perhaps they should get a paid committee of 15 to figure it out.

CANCEL THE ELECTION YOU MORONS!"

narciso

Well you have to go back to Jan 1982, to find that low a labor participation rate


http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

narciso

And it took till 1980, to get to that point,
so regardless we have given up a huge amount
of ground, in this process,

MaryW

Oldtimer,

Just had post surgical eye exam and my vision is no 20/25 in both eyes. I asked the surgeon what percentage of his patients he recommended the Restor lens to and he told me that no more than 30% of the patients he sees should have it. He actually uses that lens for about 20% of his patients. He mentioned inner and outer curvatures as the reason for his recommendation.

daddy

Rats, Typepad's acting up, so I'll try this without a link:

"Catholics have this custom that on All Souls Day, which is always Nov 2nd, we pray especially for anyone who has died in the previous year."

Cathyf,

I'm not a Catholic, but by chance am reading an unusual recent arrival at our Library, Cluny: In Search of God's Lost Empire.

It's an interesting history of a once very powerful, but now long since destroyed Benedictine Monastery in medieval France. Founded about 910, the author mentions how periodically the surrounding territory was clobbered by various invaders; Vikings, Magyars, Saracens, etc. It mentions how about 1030 the surrounding countryside had suffered 3 years of massive rains, "resulting in waterlogged fields. No plowing was possible. No crops could be sown. There was no grass for animals to graze on. There was no food to be had. People were dying like flies, and wolves were seen prowling in broad daylight about the towns and villages to prey on the unburied dead. Cannibalism had broken out..."

He goes on to detail how awful things were, and then continues with this:

"Perhaps it is a mark of these violent times that the monks of Cluny should have begun to make a formal ceremony of offering prayers for the dead. About the year 1030 Cluny's Abbot, Odilo, publicly proclaimed the 2nd day of November each year to be designated All Souls Day, a date in the Church Calendar which is still celebrated."

It mentions All Soul's Day a bit more further on but I can't find it at the moment. Anyhow, I had never heard of Cluny or it's history, nor of All Souls's Day either before last week, so when you mentioned it above thought I'd chip in this bit of info. Big coinkydink, no?

Apparently all that's left of the once enormous Abbey is ruins, as most of it was torn down and sold as quarry stones following the French Revolution. I'm in the early 1100's and finding it fascinating.

daddy

Here's the link: Cluny: In Search of God's Lost Empire.

daddy

I don't know if any of you guys were thinking about going to see "Big Miracle", the Drew Barrymore/Ted Danson fictionalized movie about trying to save the Whales frozen in Ice in Barrow, but if you are, looks like I paid for your ticket.

daddy

Somebody didn't get the AGW memo: "This is likely to be the worst season for ice in the Bering Sea in 30 years."

G'nite.

Captain Hate

For those of you who doubt the MFM's ability to shape the narrative (ie lie) check this out http://www.snopes.com/history/american/bushscan.asp . If anything, the denizens of Snopes are lib leaning but I applaud their treatment of this; and I'm as far from a reflexive defender of Poppy Bush as you can find.

Where I found the link for that was here http://minx.cc/?post=326432 which indicates that it's already started for Willard. Get ready for much much more.

pagar

The Obama Regime's attack on American jobs continues.

http://biggovernment.com/driehl/2012/02/03/obamacare-moves-forward-with-job-killing-irs-regulations/

"The legislation is expected to cost America tens of thousands of jobs, while also sending some high-end industries overseas. "

Jane

Frau,

A typical day at sea would be a morning session 10-12 with a panel, and afternoon session with a panel 2-4, then a cocktail party or some such event. You have dinner with the speakers and they hang around like you do. For people like me, the cruise part is incidental. I go for the people and the speakers.

My guess is that list will end up being less than a quarter of the speakers at the end of the day.

So make your reservation now...

centralcal

Good morning. So Captain that Ace link about Hollister being some kind of stupid goof by Romney. I didn't get it. I formerly lived most of my adult life in a farm town only about 1/2 hour from Hollister, CA. So, feeling really ignorant, I Binged "Hollister" to see what the hubbub was about.

What did I find? A clothing line for So. Calif. teens called: Hollister - but wait, the website lists it as Hollister, CA! Not a Romney fan, but this is really thin gruel from PeterHanbyCNN if you ask me!

Jane

WH Insider reporting that Obama just wants to be "cool" again and that he worked harder on that Al Greene song than anything else he has since elected. HE had song coaches and devoted days to pulling it off.

I'm on my IPAD so I can't post a link.

HILARIOUS and sad.

centralcal

Here is the I Wanna Be Cool, Again link Jane is referencing.

sbw

Jane, we are interested in the cruise, but not sure my wife can get the time off from school. Not very likely.

However, from your experience, how about some advice about the ship? My wife is interested in a view and possibly a verandah (Class V). Does that make sense?

We signed up for emails.

narciso

Interesting how one of the characters in 'Big Miracle' played by Ted Danson, is Bill Allen,
the future great corruptor of Alaskan politics, 9.6 million dollars, ouch.

Captain Hate

this is really thin gruel from PeterHanbyCNN if you ask me!

Oh yes; I just linked it to illustrate what depths we can expect those turds to descend between now and November.

he worked harder on that Al Greene song than anything else he has since elected. HE had song coaches and devoted days to pulling it off.

Since he hasn't done a thing except deliver third rate speeches since January 2009, that's not setting the bar very high. Maybe he and Calypso Louie can go on tour singing duets starting next year when he has even more time on his hands.

narciso

Yes it kind of blah, you can 'dial up to eleven' like TPaw and say you're a fan of Lady Gaga, that actually happened in an
early debate,

Porchlight

daddy, I have been to Cluny. I didn't appreciate it then, as I was a moody, preoccupied 20-something at the time, but my dad insisted that we all see it. Hope I can go back sometime now that I know how important it is. Thanks for the book rec!

hit and run

I've met 12 JOMers.

There are two others with whom I have conversed on the phone,but have not met in person.

I've had two JOMers over to my house,and I have visited the homes of three JOMers*.

I've met four JOMer children and one JOMer spouse.

One JOMer has met mrs hit and run, hit and run jr and princess hit and run, and one other JOMer has met princess hit and run.

Fingers crossed,in a couple of weeks one JOMer whom I have never met will meet mrs hit and run.


----------------
*I have yet to meet my dear friend sylvia,who has tried to warn you people not to let me into your homes.

A Casual Observation

What is missing from that picture at 6:44 pm yesterday is Obama waving with his hand rudely blocking the face of one of the other men in the picture.

A Casual Observation

..... as that ditzy putz has done on two occasions when he and other dignitaries were posing together for group photographs.

Jane

However, from your experience, how about some advice about the ship? My wife is interested in a view and possibly a verandah

SBW,

You want Caro for ship advice. I just follow her. I'm pretty sure you can get a window or a verandah which will serve as a window. There may be rooms with both. I have no idea.

So far I win the JOM contest for meeting the most people. Of course I made up the contest so it's sort of a joke. Caro might beat me.

Ranger

Via Instapundit this morning, James Pethokoukis takes a look at the numbers:

Why the official 8.3 percent unemployment rate is a phony number—and what it means for Obama’s reelection

Its very much worth a read.

Ranger

And also this via Instapundit:

As Obama Crows, Real Story Is 10.5 Mil Jobs Deficit

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the economy is just 0.7% above its previous high. Usually at this point in an expansion, it's 13.5% above the last peak. In other words, thanks to Obama's policies, we're missing about $1.8 trillion in GDP — or roughly $5,760 for every man, woman and child.

As they say, read the whole thing...

Danube of Thought

It's worth going to CH's Snopes link just to marvel at the snot-nosed tone used by Andrew Rosenthal in his "report." And of course Rosenthal wasn't present for the event, and his account is false.

Genuine scum.

(Another) Barbara

My guess is that list will end up being less than a quarter of the speakers at the end of the day.

But. . . sputter, sputter. They're all Fnorks!

Ah well. Go, anyway, if you possibly can. I've been on five NR cruises and they're about as much fun as you can have (doing something that doesn't involve romance or winning a lottery). A verandah is nice, but you can also get the cheapest room available and it's fine cause you won't be in it anyway except to catch a few winks between midnight and dawn. There's too much going on and you won't want to miss a second of being with the best and the brightest.

Jane

AB - are you coming this NOV? I haven't forgotten your package, but I haven't got it yet either. Rotary is coming to my place for the Superbowl. So I hope to do it between then and C-PAC.

Ignatz

Thanks for both those links Ranger.
Pethokoukis is indispensable.

Ranger

You're welcome Ignatz. I figure those here would appriciate seeing them.

Rick Ballard

Here is the Census Rule for counting them dam furriners:

Foreign students living in the U.S. while attending college in the U.S. (living either on-campus or off-campus) - Counted at the on-campus or off-campus residence where they live and sleep most of the time.

One might think that the Census rolling adjustment over the decade would capture any significant change and that's probably true. However, in an effort to give aide and comfort to all those Dr. Dung Beetles out working whatever takes the place of a heart for them off as indoctrinators and election workers for His Petulance, DHS admitted 619,391 more students in 2010 than the 895,392 admitted in 2009.

Someone of a suspicious nature might correlate the 619,391 number with the 1,000,000+ increase in "Asians" (think Mujahadin) in the Census decennial adjustment and dig a little deeper to try and find the country of origin numbers for the entire student visa population, just in the off chance that DoS was making good on the President's pre-election sales of visas.

BTW the student numbers come from Table 3 in the DHS stats. Table 3 reflects and increase in furriners on shore from 36,231,554 in 2009 to 46,471,516 in 2010, an increase of 10,239,962.

It's a little peculiar that we haven't seen much news about a 30% increase in foreign visitors. It's a real head scratcher.

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Wilson/Plame