Great Insights From Statistical Analysis

An AP "Fact Check" on the correlation of US energy production with gasoline prices takes us to the border of supply and demand before veering off into a comedy club:

FACT CHECK: More US drilling didn't drop gas price

WASHINGTON (AP) -- It's the political cure-all for high gas prices: Drill here, drill now. But more U.S. drilling has not changed how deeply the gas pump drills into your wallet, math and history show.

A statistical analysis of 36 years of monthly, inflation-adjusted gasoline prices and U.S. domestic oil production by The Associated Press shows no statistical correlation between how much oil comes out of U.S. wells and the price at the pump.

...

Sometimes prices increase as American drilling ramps up. That's what has happened in the past three years. Since February 2009, U.S. oil production has increased 15 percent when seasonally adjusted. Prices in those three years went from $2.07 per gallon to $3.58. It was a case of drilling more and paying much more.

U.S. oil production is back to the same level it was in March 2003, when gas cost $2.10 per gallon when adjusted for inflation. But that's not what prices are now.

That's because oil is a global commodity and U.S. production has only a tiny influence on supply. Factors far beyond the control of a nation or a president dictate the price of gasoline.

Oh, for heaven's sake - the question is, does additional US production result in lower prices than would have otherwise prevailed?  If, just to seize an example, producers only ramp up US production in response to shortages and rising prices elsewhere, a simple statistical analysis such as done here will "prove" that more production is always associated with higher prices.

Well - Obama's energy plan calls for more investment in clean energy and increasing automobile fuel efficiency standards.  So we eagerly await the next AP "Fact Check" where they analyze the correlation of rising CAFE standards and clean energy output with gasoline prices.

My guess - since we have a record level of solar and wind output yet gasoline prices are also at a record high, the statistical correlation will be clear - all this "clean energy" investment has increased gasoline prices.  

And has the AP failed to notice that gasoline prices have been spiking since electric cars hit the streets and Obama announced stricter fuel economy standards?  Surely the conclusion is inescapable - this push for fuel efficiency is driving gasoline prices through the roof.

Obvi.

JUST RUMINATING: I don't think OPEC has the pricing power it once did, if it ever had.  But taking inspiration from the AP, I won't be letting facts interfere with a good story.  Imagine (HYPOTHETICALLY!!!) that OPEC has sufficient market power and solidarity to control prices (and/or that Saudi Arabia, as a swing producer, can maintain OPEC discipline on aggregate output).  In that world, if OPEC is determined to keep oil prices at a certain level, or rising along a certain path, they will simply cut their production to offset increased US production.  The net impact of increased US production on global prices will be nil, although revenue will flow in different directions.

However!  The same can be true on the demand side.  If the US manages to cut its demand for oil by improving fuel efficiency or substituting clean energy, OPEC could simply reduce output to maintain prices.

Presumably, at some point if the US reduced its demand enough (or increased production enough) OPEC's pricing power would be undone.  And the US certainly accounts for more gloabl demand than global supply, so that ought to be a sensible place to look.

However, the simple statistical analysis done by the AP is unlikely to illuminate these issues.

Comments

[kave]

Factors far beyond the control of a nation or a president dictate the price of gasoline.

That is of course unless the president is a republican.

[Yorky]

Yeah, this is pretty much the President's domain of influence as much as any other globally traded commodity.
In related news, the speed of computer CPUs has doubled under Obama's watch.

[We need sacrificial victims.]

There is vast cognitive dissonance in climate and energy policy discussions. A belief system is being sundered by Nature.
==============

[Cecil Turner]

Snarkalicious.

[Jack is Back!]

What was the export production capacity in the Mid-East at the time of the correlation exercise? If we import over 50% of our crude requirements then it stands to reason that you have factor those numbers into any calculation of statistical analysis being presented here.

Also, what was the value of the dollar at the time compared to the price of crude? Also, we export finished product not crude (only about 30 to 50k BBL a day) and that is conditioned on demand from off shore. There is a substantial uptick in that commodity.

[rse]

LUN is breitbart's latest vetting from a 1995 interview. About time Ayers/Doehrn hosted the aspiring politician in their living room.

For me it means BO's concept of what is appropriate for US have been shaped by his experiences in 3rd world countries where the Top 5% are all political entrepreneurs and corruption between bureaucrats and cronies is robust. That's what he is bringing to the US.

Market entrepreneurs are bad. Only those who pay to play get a seat at the table that plans and controls the economy.

Isn't he saying his concept of markets and capitalism is seen through the lens of how Indonesia and Pakistan work?

[rse]

kim-

Are you checking out that Planer under Pressure conference next week in London?

[Chubby]

((Isn't he saying his concept of markets and capitalism is seen through the lens of how Indonesia and Pakistan work))

not if you read between the lines. if one believes, as Obama does, that the dismal situations in Pakistan and Indonesia are the unfortunate results of white colonialization, ("evil empires") the missing link is found

[narciso]

Nowe the Post rubbishes the foolishness of Pillar, crikey has he not been paying attention, yet still comes to the wrong conclusion;

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/21/2706429/time-to-consider-an-iran-with.html

[centralcal]

Isn't this interesting. Janet, this is in your neck of the woods?

From Daily Caller:

A Virginia middle school teacher recently forced his students to support President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign by conducting opposition research in class against the Republican presidential candidates.

The 8th grade students, who attend Liberty Middle School in Fairfax County, were required to seek out the vulnerabilities of Republican presidential hopefuls and forward them to the Obama campaign

.

[NK]

TomM-- you really were too easy on AP. That BS was 'Bam propoganda nothing else. How is 'Bam complicit in $100+ oil? a few examples: 1. EPA/Regulatory roadblocks to crude production AND refining; 2. Shutting off ANWR, Fed land, continental shelf from crude/gas production; 3. Attempted Cap/Trade and CO2 regs; 4. EPA 'investigation' of gas fracking; 5. Keystone follies; 6. Dollar debasement through $6 Trillion Debt in 3+ years that the Fed is monetizing; 7. pushing Fed to maintain ZIRP further debasing Dollar. 1-5 'Bam policies have forced traders to believe that the US will not use vast supply resources to free up tight capacity margins; #6-7 make the Dollar worthless so it costs more in Dollar terms to by Crude. 7 ways that this moron 'Bam has hurt US consumers and families and the US economy while he plays King Kanote of "Alt Energy". He's a schmuck and AP are his propagandists.

[Chubby]

CC that is getting mighty close to a dystopia where children report their parents' bad behavior to the authorities.

[Chubby]

NK, there are also his recorded words on record that his goal is to make the prices prohibitive.

[Janet]

Wow, centralcal!

[Danube of Thought]

My statistics prof showed conclusively that sitting in the first two rows at burlesque shows causes baldness.

[Danube of Thought]

Minus 14 at Raz today.

Leads Romney by 3.

[Old Lurker]

"He's a schmuck and AP are his propagandists."

All true. But how many of his followers took Econ 3?

[Melinda Romanoff]

NK-

The Fed can't debase the dollar if they're printing to replace only 20% of the $s that were destroyed since '07.

[Clarice]

DoT, He cribbed that from my handbook. Of that I am sure.

A little morning sherbet after TM's created laugh fest.http://www.dnainfo.com/20120322/upper-east-side/john-edwards-first-name-uncovered-millionaire-madam-investigation

[Old Lurker]

Mine demonstrated conclusively that the Dow correlated perfectly with the water flowing through a particular river in China, DoT.

[Clarice]

Oh, good grief, narciso. Not that lamebrain Pillar again.

[Extraneus]

I'm still amazed that Obama has been able to ramp up domestic oil production 15% in three years when we used to think it takes a lot longer.

“If drilling [in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge] were approved today, it would be ten years before oil arrived in refineries.” — Sierra Magazine, January-February issue, 2002.

“Oil extracted from the Wildlife Refuge would not reach refineries for seven to ten years and would never satisfy more than two percent of our nation’s oil demands at any one time.” — Senator Maria Cantwell (D., Wash.), April 17, 2002.

“It would take years and years of development” to generate any supply. — Vice President Al Gore, September 30, 2000. He preferred releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve instead.

The Bush plan to drill in ANWR offers “no real action to bring oil prices down now, no real prospect of freeing ourselves from dependence on big oil and foreign oil.” — Al Gore, Sept. 30, 2000.

UPDATE: A little more recently . . . “We could start drilling in ANWR today, and at its peak, which would be more than a decade from now, it would give us enough oil to take care of our transportation needs for about a month.” — Senator Barack Obama, February 28, 2006.

[Old Lurker]

That is either one of your best puns ever, Clarice, or else you need more coffee this morning.

[Extraneus]

.

[NK]

MelR-- what can I tell you; the FOREX investors have whacked the Dollar in relation to the currency basket, and commodity traders have bid up asset values in Dollar terms. They seem to think the Fed has debased the Dollar. As for the money supply? Let's see, is the unprecedented housing market bubble deflation a reason for Dollar destruction? Why yes it was. Those 'Dollars' were vaporized like Corzine's customer deposits, mostly because they weren't real in the first place-- they were created by Greenspan's printing press. I know the financial service industry is now living off of Bernanke's ZIRP and world-wide QE, but you've got to recognize the dead end where those policies lead for the rest of us.

[Extraneus]

.

[narciso]

Between him and Scheuer, we were in the hands of Top men, weren't we,

[Clarice]

I don't understand that , OL, so I'll just pretend it was deliberate on my part.

[Extraneus]

For the non-statisticians among us, the above data indicates that an increase in the stork population promises an increase in the number of babies born in any given year.

[jimmyk]

My statistics prof showed conclusively that sitting in the first two rows at burlesque shows causes baldness.

I've also proved that people leaving their homes with umbrellas in the morning causes it to rain later that day.

Could there be any better proof that journalists are either morons, prostitutes, or both?

[narciso]

I think this is what you meant, OL,

http://www.ucsd.edu/catalog/curric/ECON-ug.html

[OldTimer]

Careful long-term Iranian infiltration ensures we cowardly Americans won't bomb Iran..

- LUN

[NK]

Dear All-- According to Instapundit, that jackass 'Bam apparently said today that Crude Oil is $1.20 Barrell, and gas pump price is $3.75, so evil oil companies make too much profit. What? He's an effin' ignorant muppet who'll read anything off the teleprompter. All he knows is that Axelrod/Plouffe will do what it takes to 'get the votes' in North Phila., Camden NJ, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Richmond, etc to make a difference in Nov. -- bring out the dead!!

[Melinda Romanoff]

Not arguing with you about the buck dump, which is a perception trade, not a "math" trade for me. As far as housing valuations, they were real all right, prices and securities were formed off of those prices. Were they Worth those prices? Obviously not. But trade they did and from the funds generated from those securities other economic activity occurred.

I just look at it a little differently, that's all.

[Clarice]

Ext your energy review is so good, I plan on stealing it.

[narciso]

That piece by Weiss, reminds me of the relationship between the first and second oldest professsions,

[matt]

Nuclear? Is it 1 or 2 additional reactors that have been approved and financed? Coal? There's a war on coal. Frakking? The Left is doing their best to redefine the narrative. OIL? Offshore shut down for 2 years so far. Inshore LA shut down for many months. Florida coast closed. California coast closed.

The only successes have been in states such as PA, WV, ND,CO, WY, etc where state laws have taken precedence over federal.

I sat in a meeting 2 1/2 years ago in Shanghai where the head of the European solar industry association said that the goal had to be to raise the price of conventional energy so that solar, wind, etc could compete.

And what has Stephen Chu said time and again? In this case the strategy could not be clearer.

Obama is engaged in one of the all time biggest shuck jobs. He is the master prevaricator.

AP had another "story" on unemployment going down this morning, and magically the housing market is getting better all of a sudden.Plain and simple propaganda.

[NK]

MelR-- I think Dollar value/commodity valuations is a big picture and mind numbingingly complex story. Bottom line -- For 10 years now the Fed has had the printing press going to feed a housing bubble (burst 2007-2008), then re-capitalize TBTF banks, then to stabilize housing prices, then to increase the wealth perception by inflating the stock market. What's happened?, banks are on QE life support, the housing market has yet to clear, and equities need QE to stay up, the rest of the printed Dollars?-- have gone to oil producers, food growers and gold. AND, AND -- we have a $16TRILLION DOLLAR national debt backed by you and me; How is that a net plus for America?

[Janet]

Extraneus,
Did you see this post by Clarice last night?

Congrats!

[Neo]

Bill Maher:
"If that doesn’t work, what about this: If you see or hear something you don’t like in the media, just go on with your life. Turn the page or flip the dial or pick up your roll of quarters and leave the booth."

Can anybody see the WWF or the Clean Air Council agreeing to this ? .. how about anybody in the vast plethora of Left-leaning victim exploiting organizations (i.e. NAACP, Black Panthers, CAIR, Black September, ALF-CIO, SEIU, NOW, GLAD, Rainbow whatever, etc) ?

Thought not.

[Janet]

Story headline at Drudge - Prices Slashed on Limited Edition 'Obama 44' Jerseys...

...but sales are brisk for 'Obama 404' jerseys!

[narciso]

Rush, has been prescient about this, it's almost impossible to avoid their templates,
take the tragic Martin incident, has to be the worse thing in the world.

[Janet]

john-edwards-first-name-uncovered-millionaire-madam-investigation

Let's see every name....& while they are at it, let's see every name in the old DC Madam book too. Who trusts the MFM to pick whose outed?

[Melinda Romanoff]

You could go back to 1913 and come up with the same argument, I suppose. The .dotcom bubble explosion did exactly the same type of destruction that the housing market is doing now. Same perception, different results. The FX market took both actions by the Fed as inflationary, yet the bond market maintained its deflationary footing. Paradox? Yes. Economically, they will trend to where the market says it will go.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Federal judges bar Wisc. election officials from using GOP drawn election maps.-AP/Twitter.

[Old Lurker]

I won't explain your pun, C, but suffice to say Bad is having a great laugh this morning.

[narciso]

A good overview,

http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2012/03/21/president-obamas-clueless-contemptuous-energy-speech/2/

[Pepper]

From $2.10 to $4.00 is a rise of 7.42% a year. That may be the inflation rate for higher ed, but certainly not CPI.

Guess it's too much to ask for AP to have a command of rudimentary math.

[Threadkiller]

As long as it is inflation adjusted, it all makes sense.

Wait!!! Inflation!?!

[NK]

MelR-- don't have to go back to 1913: the Fed had irresponsible leadership under Burns -- that caused the "Great Inflation" 1969-1980-- the Fed had great leadership under Volcker 1980-1987 ( and Reagan who bit the bullet of a deep industrial recession caused by Volcker rates), and good leadership under Greenspan 1987-1994-- then we had government by the Goldman Sachs for the Goldman Sachs and Rubin's bond holder clients 1994-1998 in the Mexican and Greenwich LTC bailouts that gave us moral hazard forever. Give me Volcker sound fiat currency, less government regulation of markets, and really nasty prosecutors and juries to hang the limited number of crooks-- we'll all be better off IMHO.

[Threadkiller]

Phew... Don't worry, it only like inflation.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamespoulos/2012/03/15/with-gas-and-oil-policy-like-obamas-who-needs-inflation/

[Melinda Romanoff]

Burns had Nixon's help, er, maybe the other way around, but anyway, uncorking Bretton Woods really opened Pandora's Box of Joy for all to see and led to Carter and his hearty party. I'd settle for sound money first, and then let the markets sort it out, but nooooo, everyone has to put their thumb on the scale. Paul Ryan gets this, but it's a short list after him.

[NK]

TK-- I read the poulos link (love links to greek pundits!!!) and it's devastating because it's all factual and even tempered. It shows how energy costs prove that 'Bam is an inept grasping Leftist.

[narciso]

Yes, but it's not 'inflation,inflation' TK. I recall when the Journal actually denied their
own reporting, when Sarah cited in her Facebook page, has Mr. 'Etch a Sketch' raised
the point,

[NK]

MelR@10:45-- now we are in complete agreement. Don't be so hard on Nixon, he did inherit LBJ's war in Vietnam and War on Poverty and his tax rates--- but yes, bailing on Bretton knocked over a huge domino (I was a 13yo on vacation in Greece when that happened- it freaked my parents out, fortunately the Drachma was funny money itself, so we didn't have to wash dishes.) BTW-- excluding you and TomM of course, the 2 smartest and most honest financial guys I know assure me that the Fed will have its inflation one way or another -- hook or crook-- to reflate housing and devalue the National Debt. Invest accordingly.

[GMAX]

Rick

Re that magic 60. Quinny ( a horrible and biased pollster affiliated with a University ) looks at the Senate race in Connecticut ( of all places ) and finds Chris Shays in a very competitive race with both Democrat hopefuls.

At lot of things have to go right to get to 60 and its probably the odds of pulling that inside straight, but the odds are not zero and we wont have to make up an indictment on a Democrat Senator to make it happen either. Thinking about it, they have indicted themselves with the voters in lots of places that should be reliably Democrat. Pity.

[henry]

Thanks for the tip Mel. Fed Judge finds WI redistricting doesn't meet CRT standards. Apparently the new districts failed to guarantee a Latino assembly seat. Any bets on whether the judge signed a recall petition? (The judge was not named in the link, so I don't know the answer).

[Porchlight]

Congratulations to Extraneus! Well done.

[Captain Hate]

NK, how can you be too hard on somebody who instituted wage and price controls, one of the most lamebrained bit of economic lunacy I've seen.

[rse]

Want a laugher?

How about clean energy being used as the model for what can happen to public education if government will only create the right space for public-private partnerships?

That ranks right up there with the same author using his daughter's paid employment as proof that education centered around computers can lead to future valuable, marketable skills. Even though she works for him at a digital learning advocacy group that gets its revenue from school districts shifting to a digital literacy push.

Like clean energy, BO, and apparently ann curry per the previous thread, there is no there there as you push through the assertions.

[NK]

CaptH-- I surrender-- yes Nixon was an economic muppet. But Carter was worse!
PS: if your daughter stays in my fair City to practice, best of luck to her.

[NK]

Henry-- the Wisc Fed Judge's ruling ONLY affects 2 assembly districts in Milwaukee- Dist 8 & 9. Only those 2 districts have to be redrawn-- I assume they both have a black assembly rep, and the Court ordered one of them to become majority hispanic-- is that right?

[Cecil Turner]

The only interesting thing about this "statistical analysis" is that the trend continues for using "Fact Check" articles to promote a certain political view. (And, unsurprisingly, that that political view is indistinguishable from a DNC press release.) Just when you thought the Fourth Estate couldn't get any farther in the tank for the party in power, they continue to impress. Actually sort of clever, in a low cunning kind of way.

[narciso]

Something in the water at Mudge Rose water cooler,

[Jim Rhoads a/k/a vnjagvet]

From henry's link:

A federal court this morning ruled Republicans failed to create a majority-minority Assembly seat for Milwaukee's Latino community and offered lawmakers the chance to tweak those lines.

But the court otherwise left intact the maps the GOP created last summer, ruling that while more than a million Wisconsinites were moved needlessly, "the resulting population deviations are not large enough to permit judicial intervention under the Supreme Court’s precedents."

The court stressed in the ruling that its ruling on Assembly districts 8 and 9 are not intended to affect any other seats. It added that re-drawing those lines must occur within the combined outer boundaries of those two seats to avoid impacting other districts.

That looks to me like a win for the GOP.

[Extraneus]

Did you see this post by Clarice last night?

Heh. No I didn't. Thanks for pointing that out, Clarice. I'm a bit more negative on his white half these days.

[Captain Hate]

NK, my s-i-l started working for Apple after the start of the year so they relocated to Santa Cruz. My daughter got some good recs for her clinicals from her Hunter profs; the first one has already made a job offer and she recently started the second and last recently.

[Gus]

I just did some statistical analysis.

More drilling equals less reliance on foreign oil.

N'est ce pas??

[BB Key]

The "Fact Check" meme is nothing more than attempt by old media to dictate the narrative.
ht to whoever I stole this from but it is worth repeating

[NK]

MelR-- you ought to be impressed and UNsurprised by this-- ze chermans say NEIN to Dodd-Frank-- Deutshe is no longer a bank holding company. THE CHICAGO WAY GOES TO DC-- crushing regs for our enemies, loop holds for our friends. 'Bam is a lefty, but his tactics are pure Cook County machine: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303812904577295614224666918.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollections

[henry]

NK, I think one of the two districts has a "white" assembly person and the other a Latino right now. Demographic trends suggest both would be Latino majority districts in a couple years.

Jim Rhoads, a GOP win? Possibly. To the extent the Latino thing was a wedge to get the entire redistricting thrown out that strategy didn't work. The key is whether the delay goes past the November elections.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Cook County School for Bidness.

[Old Lurker]

NK: "But Carter was worse..."

There is a truism regardless of the clause that follows it.

[NK]

OL@11:21 -- one exception-- Carter was good for the commies in the old Soviet Union. In fact for them, Carter was best! Like having Armand Hammer as POTUS.

[Captain Hate]

El JEFe is scheduled to speak at Ohio $tate this afternoon; I hope Ann's traffic isn't too jacked around by that. I'm sure he's going there to gladhand off of enthusiasm for the Buckeye's sweet 16 game tonight; I assume he has them in his bracket although there's no way I'd spend one second looking it up.

[The Top Drawer.]

rse, a great gathering of liars.
===============

[Bill in AZ sez it's time for Obama/Holder murder trial in Mexico]

Ext: "According to Instapundit, that jackass 'Bam apparently said today that Crude Oil is $1.20 Barrell, and gas pump price is $3.75, so evil oil companies make too much profit"

3.75 - 1.20 = $2.65 profit!!

(sheesh, hope Bill O'Reilly doesn't see this. Another hour long rant on eeevvviiill oil companies)

[Old Lurker]

True that, NK. Also I suppose the radical Islamists were happy with Carter.

[Rick Ballard]

"More drilling equals less reliance on foreign oil."

Gus,

That's the actual focus of the Bush/Cheney policies which have led to a reduction of imports from the MidEast/NorthAfrican countries most susceptible to supply disruption. We're down to 1MPD from the Saudis as our only current exposure to Mohametan mischief. We could easily replace the Saudi oil, should the Persian/Arab conflict reignite.

TM added some speculation to his post regarding OPEC's declining ability to influence oil prices. I agree with the argument but I believe that it's OPEC/Russia rather than OPEC alone. I would note that BOzo's payoff for supporting the Anglo/French coup in Libya (as an OPEC disciplinary measure) was probably supposed to be a drop in oil prices to $80 when Libya began pumping again. Think of it as another plan from ACME Political Strategery where the outcome was slightly different from the objective.

[narciso]

Carter is turning out a piker;

http://theweek.com/bullpen/column/225833/a-year-later-libya-is-still-a-mess

[Gus]

henry, although I LOVE HISPANICS with all my heart and soul, I believe the LEGISLATURE is the legal authority on redistricting. Always has been. When did that change. Did I mention that I LOVE HISPANICS.

[narciso]

'This is not my beautiful house, this is not my beautiful car'

http://freebeacon.com/obama-on-solyndra-loan-this-was-not-our-program/

[NK]

RickB@11:43-- Imagine if Bush/Cheney had actually been implemented-- ANWR, continental shelf drilling, tar sands on fed land, refinery and pipeline redtape slashed, Keystone BUILT-- that's $3M+ br/day of crude production and increased refinery capacity with REDUCED transport costs. The Mullahs would have backed down because the US could compete on exports to China and US consumers would be paying $2.50/gallon. All squandered b/c of the Senate Dems and 'Bam's ego.

[Ralph Gizzip]

Why no mention of reduced US refining capacity? There's your real driver of fuel prices. If you really want to see gas prices fall then grant permits to build refineries.

It doesn't do you any good to sit at a buffet table if you don't have the ability to crap it out.

[NK]

Narc@11:49-- many thanks for that Link: OMG-- the POTUS is delusional-- utterly DELUSIONAL. SECY CHU SWORE under oath that he approved the Solyndra loan and loan MOD; how is it not 'Bam's baby. the POTUS is delusional.

[henry]

Gus, I think Feingold changed that with his "Its not over until we win" speech.

[Dave (in MA)]

The "$1.20 a barrel" crap comes directly from the whitehouse.gov transcript. It's possible he said "one twenty" and the transcriber put in "$1.20" instead of "$120", but let's give him the same benefit of a doubt that they gave Bush for 8 years and just call him a moron.

[narciso]

I had to use the Talking Heads reference, because it is so absurd, meanwhile, paging Hillary;

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/21/inside-the-ring-436080940/

[NK]

Ralph@11:53-- sorry that's just not factual. below is a link to the USEIA office, RIGHT NOW refinery utilization is 87%; that's is historically LOW utilization. Yes there are fewer refineries, and yes because of US Petroleum Region regulations, that causes some market disruptions. But the link has a further link to 1985-2011 Utilization Rate, back in the '90s when gas was $1.50/gal at the pump utilization was 95+%. There's been demand destruction since 2007, that's why refinery utilization is down, that's why refineries have been shut and refiners are exporting. Right now US gasoline is high mainly because of the weak Dollar and limited spare CRUDE capacity. Here's the link: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_m.htm

[Captain Hate]

Wow narc; yeah I'm sure our State Dept guys are *all* over that.

[NK]

Narc-- BTW I loved your Talking Heads reference. And yes the $1.20 barrel came from the WH's own transcript. They are all morons, the whole lot of them.

Daddy-- In your Far East travels, have you heard any PRC 'coup' rumors?

[Janet]

Here is the Youtube video comparing the MFM treatment of Bush vs. Obama. I think JeanD. first linked it.
...about the 2 minute mark President 404 looks drunk.

[Danube of Thought]

How sweet that Insty linked to the famous Billy Madison insult in his report on Obama's oil lunacy.

[Melinda Romanoff]

NK-

Yesterday, the WSJ had a story on the failures of the EIA data, due to budgetary raids, so I'm looking for better sources.

[NK]

BenF-- sorry you are afactual as well -- you know that already. But, repeating myself for the millionth time, the debased Dollar is the primary reason for $105/Barrel oil and $4 pump price. AND it encourages exports. So BenF-- focus your snark skills at BenBernanke, Barry Obama and Harry Reid who are piling on the Debt that has to be monetized with printed --debased-- Dollars. Then we can talk about resource utilization.

[NK]

MelR-- that's always true with stats, but the refinery utilization rate has 25 year pedigree, so it has a historical record to follow. I think it's as accurate as any government stat these days-- now BLS on the other hand...

[Rick Ballard]

"Why no mention of reduced US refining capacity?"

Probably because operable capacity is more than 10% higher today than it was in 1990, while utilization rates are slipping or stable.

No green field projects does not equal no increase in production capacity. Refinery expansions and improvements are continuing - they haven't felt the Kiss of BOzo as yet.

[GMAX]

Republican leads going into the recount for a special election in South Brooklyn for a State Senate race. If I can make it here I can make it anywhere. Get a load of the comment from the Democrat Senator. Foreshadowing? Here:

The unexpected tight race in a district that is heavily Democratic is the latest bad news for Senate Democrats in their efforts to reclaim the majority this fall.

“It’s a bad omen,” said Sen. Diane Savino (D-Staten Island) “We should not be having to compete for races in Brooklyn. It’s the most Democratic county in the state.”

[Melinda Romanoff]

Rick-

I thought that was one of the EPA/Texas wars, was it not?

[NK]

RickB-- all true. But in truth, several refineries have closed because of refiner decisions-- several mid atlantic refineries that did NE state (NY, Ct, Mass) blends closed because they could not compete with import prices, and the capital upgrades to compete were not justified because of US demand destruction. I know MelR disagrees, but this is why I believe this is a monetary situation-- primarily.