Great Insights From Statistical Analysis

An AP "Fact Check" on the correlation of US energy production with gasoline prices takes us to the border of supply and demand before veering off into a comedy club:

FACT CHECK: More US drilling didn't drop gas price

WASHINGTON (AP) -- It's the political cure-all for high gas prices: Drill here, drill now. But more U.S. drilling has not changed how deeply the gas pump drills into your wallet, math and history show.

A statistical analysis of 36 years of monthly, inflation-adjusted gasoline prices and U.S. domestic oil production by The Associated Press shows no statistical correlation between how much oil comes out of U.S. wells and the price at the pump.

...

Sometimes prices increase as American drilling ramps up. That's what has happened in the past three years. Since February 2009, U.S. oil production has increased 15 percent when seasonally adjusted. Prices in those three years went from $2.07 per gallon to $3.58. It was a case of drilling more and paying much more.

U.S. oil production is back to the same level it was in March 2003, when gas cost $2.10 per gallon when adjusted for inflation. But that's not what prices are now.

That's because oil is a global commodity and U.S. production has only a tiny influence on supply. Factors far beyond the control of a nation or a president dictate the price of gasoline.

Oh, for heaven's sake - the question is, does additional US production result in lower prices than would have otherwise prevailed?  If, just to seize an example, producers only ramp up US production in response to shortages and rising prices elsewhere, a simple statistical analysis such as done here will "prove" that more production is always associated with higher prices.

Well - Obama's energy plan calls for more investment in clean energy and increasing automobile fuel efficiency standards.  So we eagerly await the next AP "Fact Check" where they analyze the correlation of rising CAFE standards and clean energy output with gasoline prices.

My guess - since we have a record level of solar and wind output yet gasoline prices are also at a record high, the statistical correlation will be clear - all this "clean energy" investment has increased gasoline prices.  

And has the AP failed to notice that gasoline prices have been spiking since electric cars hit the streets and Obama announced stricter fuel economy standards?  Surely the conclusion is inescapable - this push for fuel efficiency is driving gasoline prices through the roof.

Obvi.

JUST RUMINATING: I don't think OPEC has the pricing power it once did, if it ever had.  But taking inspiration from the AP, I won't be letting facts interfere with a good story.  Imagine (HYPOTHETICALLY!!!) that OPEC has sufficient market power and solidarity to control prices (and/or that Saudi Arabia, as a swing producer, can maintain OPEC discipline on aggregate output).  In that world, if OPEC is determined to keep oil prices at a certain level, or rising along a certain path, they will simply cut their production to offset increased US production.  The net impact of increased US production on global prices will be nil, although revenue will flow in different directions.

However!  The same can be true on the demand side.  If the US manages to cut its demand for oil by improving fuel efficiency or substituting clean energy, OPEC could simply reduce output to maintain prices.

Presumably, at some point if the US reduced its demand enough (or increased production enough) OPEC's pricing power would be undone.  And the US certainly accounts for more gloabl demand than global supply, so that ought to be a sensible place to look.

However, the simple statistical analysis done by the AP is unlikely to illuminate these issues.

Comments

[narciso]

Genius, pure genius;

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/kyle-drennen/2012/03/22/nbcs-mitchell-bashs-republican-idiots-opposing-government-bank-subsidi

[Sue]

Tapper reporting that the president said "This is a tragedy...If I had a son he would look like Trayvon." What if he didn't look like your son, Obama? Would it still be a tragedy? Idiot.

And Geraldo figured out quickly the shooter is Hispanic. Otherwise, he would be doing cartwheels to convict him.

[BB Key]

Henry, Do you have any local insight about the Clintonville WI noises in the night ?

[Melinda Romanoff]

Neo-

If Rattner's saying that, it's because he's not getting paid, or has the other side of the trade on.

[centralcal]

You are so right, Sue, on both points! Great question you asked Tapper on Twitter, too!

[qrstuv]

Brian,
Jim Ryan and other regulars have been listing "stupid things that liberals believe" in response to yet another column on "stupid things that conservatives believe".

The difference, of course, is that conservatives do not believe the one list, but liberals deeply believe the other.

[narciso]

You betcha;

Although Quadrangle earned profits for the Retirement Fund, the firm paid $7 million in April 2010 to settle the inquiry. In November, Rattner personally settled for $6.2 million without admitting or denying any wrongdoing.[14]
[edit] Persecution by Attorney General Cuomo

The case drew significant media attention when Andrew Cuomo, then New York's Attorney General, inexplicably demanded much more severe penalties from Rattner than any other firm or individual implicated in the case.[15] Rattner was once a major fundraiser for Democratic Party candidates but had repeatedly passed on supporting Cuomo's campaigns.[16] In an appearance on the Charlie Rose Show, Rattner asserted that hiring Hank Morris as a placement agent was "legal then, legal now, and done properly."[17] He explained he was willing to settle on reasonable terms, but called Cuomo's demands "close to extortion" and questioned whether Cuomo was motivated by the "facts" of the case.[18]

On December 30, 2010, Rattner reached a settlement to pay $10 million in restitution but no fines or penalties. He was also not prohibited from continuing to protest his innocence.

[Jim Ryan]

I would guess that the kid grabbed a rock, Zimmerman turned and covered, the kid hit Zimmerman in the head with the rock (hence the wound), Zimmerman blew his stack and went after the kid, they wrestled for a moment and then Zimmerman drew his gun. If so, what is that, 2nd degree murder?

[Sue]

C-cal,

Tapper will ignore me.

[Jane]

Someone should ask our president what exactly he is responsible for since he continually says he is not responsible for anything.

I saw the "if I had a son he would look like Travon" remark. All I could think was: critical race theory.

[Sue]

I have no idea why a young man, black, white or purple, was killed. He shouldn't have been. But the obviousness of turning this into a racial war, white against black, when the shooter is Hispanic, really pisses me off. And, the obviousness that they are going to use this to try and overturn the stand your ground law in Florida pisses me off.

I absolutely hate our media. Hate. Hate. Hate.

[henry]

BB Key, it was a 1.5 earthquake 2 miles deep under Clintonville. story here.

[rse]

rick-CounterRev is precisely why I can read what is being pushed and immediately recognize its antecedents. Thanks for recommending it last year. I think hayek would be surprised how much he is being remembered all over the world today.

daddy-that's part of what drove me to write first and then find the publisher. Story must come out. I am just glad what I am reading at the moment bolsters everything I have said. I know this is global and I have documented but it is weird to read someone calmly laying out the hows and whys in a way no one ever does once the controversy erupts.

Let's also remember ayers intervenes to write dreams about the time losing the house for the 1st time in 40 years and various local controversies are erupting over whole language and fuzzy math and 99-0 unacceptable history standards and other components of the Clintons push to enact School to Work/Goals 2000.

We tend to focus on the health care plan but radical education reform (that's what the insiders called it or revolutionary) was just as central if not more to billary's schemes. Supposedly any budget that threatened funding for those ed priorities was subject to veto.

Ayers would have seen empowering sympathetic and radical minority politicians as essential to implementing his true agenda. Because the 90s effort was not the first attempt either.

[Rick Ballard]

"up to 49.6% of the people in this country who aren't paying any taxes"

except for payroll taxes, excise taxes, property taxes, sales taxes, use fees and permit fees.

[Janet]

Ayers would have seen empowering sympathetic and radical minority politicians as essential to implementing his true agenda.

I am so sick of the word minority.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Rick-

Don't forget the "Waiver" games!

[Jane]

Daddy,

WHere are you watching the world curling championship? And where is it being held?

[Porchlight]

I am a Twitter idiot. (Twidiot?) How does one see the questions asked *of* Tapper? I can only see what he's posted on his feed and on others' feed.

[Gus]

Colonel Jug Ears the Uniter, said that if he had a son, the son would look like Trayvon Martin.

It's always about Obama and race.

[scott]

I should be more clear. Geraldo implied that the shooter would walk while leaving it unsaid; something to the effect of "I know it sounds repugnant but there it is" and that his attorney "could drive a truck through the loophole in the stand your ground law". I don't think he want's the shooter to walk. I thought his take was interesting was all, and I tend to agree Zimmerman has a very good defense if he is ever charged, which seems more likely every day. I think kids are walking out of school in protest now and Obama spoke.

My uninformed opinion is Martin turned and hit Zim, possibly with the ice tea can, and was beating the hell out of Zim when Zim screamed in terrror just before the gunshot. I don't have an opinion on who was 'right' or 'wrong'.

[centralcal]

Porchlight, I "follow" Sue on Twitter, and I follow Tapper. I see what he posts and I see Sue's questions responding to those posts. To see others who may reply to him, you have to click on his name, which takes you to his - whatchacallit - thread?

[Porchlight]

Okay, I can now see that if you open a tweet there are sometimes replies to it from other tweeters. Still seems like I'm missing something though.

[centralcal]

Well, I am of little help, because I am a "twidiot" too.

[Clarice]

What, FB isn't distracting enough? You have to add that cuckoo twitter?

[Gus]

Ahhhhh yes ,I had predicted that Jerry Rivers would become involved in this. It's all about race. Stay tuned folks, it's the perfect storm. Hispanic vs Black, Black vs Hispanic.

We all know how this one ends. Guns bad, whitey bad.

[Porchlight]

Thanks centralcal. It seemed like it used to be easier..but I never could follow conversations people were talking about. Maybe if I had a Twitter account myself it would be more clear?

I somehow think tweeting is about the last thing I need to be doing. ;)

[Porchlight]

I just don't see how it helps Obama to dump gasoline on this. Is it supposed to energize the black vote? What about the Hispanic vote?

[Porchlight]

Yes, exactly, clarice. I spend waaaay too much time online as it is.

[Jack is Back!]

Everyone should read the Watts Up blog piece of Lord Monkton's lecture at Union College that Clarice linked. I wish I had been there to witness his skill especially on how he handled that arrogant POS professor who tried to extort his students loyalty in a show of hands. He is quick on his feet and mind - it was no contest and show again how vapid and uninspiring college has become under the learning discipline of the left.

I wonder if Pitzer is on his lecture schedule?

[NK]

Gus/Jane/Sue-- let's be clear about something-- 'Bam and the media propagandists will push the kid death story for months, until another suitable racial story comes around. Why? it will pump up black turnout; that will NOT affect the election result, BUT the higher national turnout will be used to explain the gigantic numbers in the black districts of North Phila., Camden NJ, Cleveland Oh, Milwaukee, Richmond Va, Raleigh-Durham, all of those swing states. 'Bam's people know the war is lost and strategy means nothing; it's all about TACTICS now. And manufacturing black votes in swing states is a vital tactic.

[Captain Hate]

I saw the "if I had a son he would look like Travon" remark. All I could think was: critical race theory.

Well he makes it all about himself too.

[Rick Ballard]

Mel,

I concur with CathyF's objection to categorizing those who do not pay income taxes as free riders. My reasoning is slightly different in that I believe it encourages the weak minded to believe that they receive anything that is "free". That leads to marshmallow brained Brits pumping $10 gallon gas while whining about the miserable quality of the "free" medical care they receive as their ration from the NHS.

[NK]

Porch @11:15, see the NK@ 11:17.

[NK]

captH@11:17-- very true-- 'Bam goes off script to make it about 'Bam.

[Threadkiller]

Ok, I am puzzled by something. Yesterday Shemp had a panel discussing the death of Martin. These points were made, and the seem to be backed up in various reports.

Martin had gone to the store to get skittles and a drink for a sibling.

Martin was returning to his dad's fiance's residence.

Martin was on the phone with his girlfriend as the altercation began.

Martin was shot dead in a semi-public location.

Martin was taken to the morgue, where he lay unidentified for three days.

The police did not use Martin's phone, which they admit they had possession of, to try to find Martin's family.

Here is what I do not understand. How did the parents have no idea there son had been killed? It is rare to know the last whereabouts of a child gone missing. He never returned with the skittles. He was in a familiar neighborhood. They must have know someone was shot about the same time and location of their son.

3 days?

I understand the parents are very concerned now, but what were they thinking then?

Something stinks here.

[NK]

TK-- fair points; but I think local cop incompetence and stalling before admitting incompetence is always the most likely explanation.

[Extraneus]

When mullah Abdul Rahim Shah Ghaa thinks back to the day in February when a couple of Afghan employees at a U.S.-run detention center outside of Kabul yanked five partially burned Korans out of a trash incinerator, he shudders with anger and revulsion. “It is like a knife to my heart,” says the head of the provincial religious council. The March 11 slaying of 16 Afghan civilians by a lone U.S Army staff sergeant named Robert Bales in Kandahar province, however, has left less of a scar. “Of course we condemn that act,” he says. “But it was only 16 people. Even if it were 1,000 people, it wouldn’t compare to harming one word of the Koran. If someone insults our holy book, it means that they insult our faith, our religion and everything that we have.”

[GMAX]

Soak in this admin off the record quote per the WSJ:

With the law still unpopular with many Americans, the White House has concluded that it is virtually impossible to change negative public opinions, particularly if Mr. Obama is front and center, a senior administration official said.

Why is it impossible if Obama is front and center? Because the uniter polarized the electorate and large swaths of non Democrats see him as a liar and a deceiver. Sucks for him...

[Threadkiller]

The should be they. There should be their.

[Melinda Romanoff]

TK-

Do you have the shipping manifest for that manufactured item? We're going to need some paperwork if they intend to return a damaged media package.

Hmmm.

[BB Key]

Thanks Henry, I thought the piece in the NY Times was another exampale of of great journolism ;)

[Neo]

“The only recent action the president has taken on energy involved lobbying Senators, personally and successfully, to prevent construction of the Keystone pipeline,” Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said. “Yet today he’s out in Oklahoma trying to take credit for a part of the pipeline that doesn’t even require his approval.”

[Clarice]

I see instapundit thinks as I do that the Trayvon kerfuffle is not good for Obama and Sharpton may have placed his own interests above Obama's in fanninf these flames.

[Rick Ballard]

"I wonder if Pitzer is on his lecture schedule?"

Lord Monckton probably requires the audience to possesse a level of sentience that is impossible to achieve at a Pitzer gathering. Pitzer audiences hug the left side of the bell curve pretty tightly, with a nice feather being the most important intellectual attribute on campus.

[Sue]

Anytime Sharpton is involved, things turn out badly.

[Jack is Back!]

Re: Trayvon Martin and George Zimmerman.

I am somewhat encouraged that this is going to get a transparent investigation by Angela Corey, the States Attorney for Duval County (Jacksonville). The States Attorney for Central Florida recused in case of any apparent COI. Angela is a career prosecutor and she is bringing in a staff of seasoned investigators. All Duval and Jacksonville cops as I understand it. Plus Rick Scott and Pam Bondi are giving Corey carte blanche and full access to resources.

What they don't need now is the race hustlers (including Rivera) and their road show. This reminds me of one those Harry Bosch investigations that Micahel Connelly has made a forutne on writing. It is going to take patence and skill to determine what happened and whether it is a procecutable crime.

My advice to Obama and his minions is STFU. Alan West has said it best - a tragedy that needs no political intervention but then Obama has been taught (or is it trained) not to let a crisis go unused.

[Threadkiller]

NK, I remember, when I was a child, my 14 year old brother decided to go to a new friends house rather than coming straight home from school. We were "latch key" kids, as my parents work schedule dictated.

This day my mom was home and my brother did not not arrive as expected. She called the school, then all his known friends, then my Dad(who promptly left work to drive my brother's walking route), then the police, then the hospitals, and finally she called the morgue.

When my brother finally called home I thought my mom was going to collapse.

I know not every parent will respond the same as my mom. We kids laughed and laughed about my moms reaction. With kids of my own now, I understand her concerns.

3 days. What is the deal with that?

[Porchlight]

Thanks NK, that makes sense. Very scary.

Something else very scary, from the excellent WSJ opinion piece on Obamacare and SCOTUS today:

Consider a White House strategy memo that leaked this month, revealing that senior Administration officials are coordinating with liberal advocacy groups to pressure the Court. "Frame the Supreme Court oral arguments in terms of real people and real benefits that would be lost if the law were overturned," the memo notes, rather than "the individual responsibility piece of the law and the legal precedence [sic]." Those nonpolitical details are merely what "lawyers will be talking about."

The White House is even organizing demonstrations during the proceedings, including a "'prayerful witness' encircling the Supreme Court." The executive branch is supposed to speak to the Court through the Solicitor General, not agitprop and crowds in the streets.

The last sentence blunts the effect somewhat. I don't care how peaceful a "prayerful witness" circle sounds on paper. The executive is now organizing mobs to intimidate the judiciary.

These are banana republic tactics. What the hell has this country come to?

[centralcal]

This is from a written statement by Zimmerman's father:

George is a Spanish speaking minority with many black family members and friends. He would be the last to discriminate for any reason whatsoever. One black neighbor recently interviewed said she knew everything in the media was untrue and that she would trust George with her life. Another black neighbor said that George was the only one, black or white, who came and welcomed her to the community, offering any assistance he could provide. Recently, I met two black children George invited to a social event. I asked where they met George. They responded that he was their mentor. They said George visited them routinely, took them places, helped them, and taught them things and that they really loved George. The media portrayal of George as a racist could not be further from the truth.

The link to the full thing is on Drudge.

[NK]

JiB--I disagree with you about West. he did a terrible disservice to justice by prejudging the case-- both of Zimmerman and the local cops. It looks like Zimmerman is guilty of manslaughter and the local cops were at best incompetent. But who knows? West should have said "tragedy no political intervention" that's it-- instead he's guilty of political intervention as well.

[Captain Hate]

Yeah I was a bit disappointed by West's comments that the troll pasted before he took leave of his problematic sanity. Not fatally of course, but some of it struck me as ill advised.

[Clarice]

Eyewitness says he saw Zimmerman being beaten, heard him crying out for help, ran inside to call 9ll , heard a shot and when he returned saw the guy doing the beating dead on the sidewalk.
http://www.myfoxorlando.com/dpp/news/seminole_news/022712-man-shot-and-killed-in-neighborhood-altercation

[Danube of Thought]

My hunch is that the electorate is going to begin to coalesce around ABO (Romney) when the SCt upholds Obamacare. Clarice--or anyone--do you have any idea when an opinion is likely to be forthcoming?

[Ignatz]

--But the obviousness of turning this into a racial war, white against black, when the shooter is Hispanic, really pisses me off.--

What REALLY (h/t Gus) pisses me off is Zimmerman was described as half white and half Hispanic from the start, but it wasn't until his picture came out demonstrating his strongly Hispanic features that his Hispanic half became the dominant one. That made people like Gerry Rivers change their mind. If Zimmerman had the exact same ethnic make up but had largely Anglo features those same people would be tying the hangman's noose for the guy.

[Porchlight]

I'm getting the same hinky feeling I got at the beginning of the Duke case, Clarice.

[NK]

TK-- I was latchkey afyer 8yo and I did that to my parents-- more than once. They set up a neighborhood posse to find me. My 3 yo son went missing IN our house and the entire Town police and fire department responded to my NON911 call. The facts are strange to me, but who knows.

Porch-- I agree --if they are intimidating Roberts/Kennedy, vote manufacturing is no biggie. 'bam and all progs like him are fascists at heart. That's simply a fact.

[NK]

DoT-- Obamacare should be the last decision released, last week of June.

[Clarice]

"These are banana republic tactics. What the hell has this country come to?"

Hmm, the cynic in me says Obama is trying very hard to get the SCOTUS to rule Obamacare unconstitutional and get him off the hook.

[Ignatz]

--3 days. What is the deal with that?--

That's liberalism all over, TK.
Black people to liberals are irresponsible children who can't be held to the same standards of behavior as others and so of course black people who buy into the victimhood theme live up to the expectations of those they've put their lives in the hands of.

[Clarice]

DoT, I hope you're right.

BUT, I hope that until then Sebelius keeps churning out regulations that are so awful my sharpened pike shop is overwhelmed with orders.

[Captain Hate]

I agree, C; he needs a Supreme Court to demonize more than he needs an extremely unpopular act upheld.

[Clarice]

Porch--I think when Sharpton says "No Justice, No Peace" he means he wants there to be no justice and he'll give us no peace until he gets that. POS who long ago should have been publicly shunned into oblivion.

[NK]

Clarice-- I've gone back and forth on what SCOTUS overule means. IMO, the indies will see that as proof for their vote against 'Bam. So strategically overule hurts 'Bam. 'Bam of course will use overule to attack Romney-- How-- NOT about health care, but he'll scream elect Romney and you'll have more evil WHITE MEN on the SCOTUS-- EVIL CONSERVATIVE white men in black robes in order to hold down the black and the brown and the female and the handicapped!!!! He'll do the whole Bush-Gore fight all over. Red meat for the leftwing-- again to justify extraordinary turnout in certain wards in swing states. All about tactics now.

[Porchlight]

Hmm, the cynic in me says Obama is trying very hard to get the SCOTUS to rule Obamacare unconstitutional and get him off the hook.

Interesting, clarice. I think his people will be relieved if that happens. He's a What it will do for Dem turnout, I really don't know.

[Porchlight]

Oops, "He's a" s/b He's a true believer. I think anyway.

[NK]

CaptH-- demonize the white power structure of SCOTUS (and their lackey Thomas) and use that to attack Romney. That's 'bam's play if there is overule.

[Jim Ryan]

Sounds like: Kid with absentee parents who don't notice his being missing for days wanders neighborhood looking for trouble and beats on man who fancies himself a captain in law enforcement and is looking for trouble and following kid. Tragedy ensues.

[centralcal]

I followed Althouse briefly during the Walker protestor brouhaha and only check in occasionally since then, because I find her quite the odd duck. Today she posted on her blog about Obama's statements re: Trayvon shooting. She praises Obama for his restraint, but fails to mention the "looks like me" remarks.

So, a commenter points that out to her and here is her response:

It's a very restrained statement. Very careful. And he was forced into having to talk about this. Relating the matter to his own personal experience, to his own children, is standard political rhetoric, and he handled it well.

The extra reference to his own race, which happened to be possible, was subtle and an example of the kind of racial unification we hoped for when he was elected.

I bolded the part that made my jaw drop. As I said, I find her quite the odd duck.

[NK]

JimR-- c'mon. Just as plausible that troublemaker self-appointed neighb watchdog full of himself picked a fight with a teen passing through, didn't like the result, and in a fury shot the kid. Who knows? Please, you're talking like Sharpton -- in reverse.

[NK]

CC-- that stuff from Althouse is willful ignorance of 'Bam's racial play. Pitiful.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Two flash crashes in Apple and in BATS this AM so far. Trading halts follow. Apple now open, BATS, not so much.

[Gus]

NK. I told a business associate yesterday that Obama is toast. He and his band of MARXIST HACKS are very very scared. They see what is coming. 52.6% of those who did vote voted for him, race, HOPE, CHANGE and for absolution of America's racial sins.
WE DON'T GET FOOLED AGAIN, NO NO, WE DON'T GET FOOLED AGAIN. Obama knows this. I told my business friend exactly what you just said, but I said, it would be a SPECIAL INTEREST SCANDAL every 2 weeks.
Capn' Hate, I said EXACTLY what you just said a few posts earlier. All issues are about Obama and/or how black he is.

[BR]

Let's just completely bypass the MSM and write our own headlines: Raz at -44. March 31, 2012.

[Danube of Thought]

I think the Supremes are going to uphold it, and that that will hurt Obama a great deal. At that point it is elect a Republican president and congress, or live with that monstrosity forever.

If the law is on the books on election day, it's going to be damn near a single-issue election.

[NK]

Gus-- for several months before you started posing again I expressed my take that as 'Bam has lost the strategic war for 2012 and would get 46+% of the vote-- his only choice was to go full out Left all the time and fire up the Dem tribes, black, liberals, college, gay, public unions PLUS suppress indie voters by making the election SO UGLY, they would be so disgusted and not vote. An indie non vote for Romney, is as good as a vote for 'Bam. Zimmerman is the first act of that election play. We'll see it every week, when Santorum drops out and there is a Repub nominee. This will be ugly--- all the way to November.

[Ignatz]

Several times in the last two decades the SCOTUS has had the opportunity to extend the commerce clause to an almost limitless extent and has refused to do so each time. This is an even more clear cut extension of absolute power to the feds, and they know it, and I just can't see them doing it.
If they do uphold it they must be banking on some leisure time since SCOTUS would never have to reveiw another commerce clause case.

[Captain Hate]

I agree, DoT; and I hope Willard has a few people smarter than etch-a-sketch boy working on a strong statement in anticipation of that. It could set the tone for the entire general campaign.

[NK]

posing=posting (sorry I'm the worst typist ever)

[Thomas Collins]

LUN for a video to get everyone stoked up for next week's Battle of the Briefcase Toters at the Supremes Arena.

[Jane]

These are banana republic tactics. What the hell has this country come to?

A banana republic.

[Danube of Thought]

Dr K on Obamacare.

[Jim Ryan]

You're right, NK. I'm being epistemically incontinent. It's one of my vices.

[Clarice]

I think next to the Moncton article, the Dr K piece on Obamacare is the story of the week, and I do believe that the Ct will knock out the individual mandate, If it does, the rest will have to fall .

[Thomas Collins]

I'm predicting the mandate gets croaked, but the rest of ObamaCare, including the insurance provisions, get upheld by SCOTUS. I think the intellectual coherence of the reasoning of the Eleventh Circuit on these issues has been underrated.

I also think the Medicaid provisions will be upheld. I think that would be a worse result than the mandate being upheld and the Medicaid provisons being croaked. If the Medicaid provisons stand, it will be SCOTUS giving the Federales virtual carte blanche to override federalism by the constant dangling of federal goodies in front of the States' noses.

[Porchlight]

I'm off to the Austin chapter of the religious freedom protest, beginning at noon. Should be interesting.

[Melinda Romanoff]

TC-

I believe the bill had "unseverable" added as a clause for passage.

[Thomas Collins]

More ObamaCare oral argument mood music at LUN.

[NK]

ThomasC-- I agree with your 12:26, and I think the Sol Gen will steer argument that way. why?-- IMO the only real priority 'Bam has is the Medicaid expansion. Medicaid expansion locks in the BIG GOV't spending component, forces States to keep taxes high to pay for union pensions and Medicaid, and captures working poor as a Dem tribe, ultimately paving the way for single payer. Mandate? all that does is make short term profits for insurance companies, 'Bam was forced to accept that-- he doesn't want that.

[Threadkiller]

We Are (almost) Brietbart!!

"Recently, Breitbart.com’s new editor at large, Ben Shapiro, was on Mark Gillar’s radio show, “Tea Party Power Hour,” promoting his conservative media organization’s “vetting Obama” campaign. Gillar asked Shapiro if “vetting” Obama would include investigating Obama’s birth and/or Selective Service documents. Absolutely not, Shapiro replied, explaining that he didn’t believe this was an issue. “I am discouraging people from spending time on this,” Shapiro said, emphasizing once again that he himself did not believe there were irregularities in the documents since, as he put it, he knew Media Matters would be listening to the interview.

The walls have ears?Shapiro’s concern almost makes Media Matters sound like a secret police outfit with a gulag for journalists who ask too many questions. In reality, it’s an ideologically driven, left-wing attack group funded by ideologically driven, left-wing George Soros.

Shapiro continued, quite candidly: “It’s an issue on which people are being marginalized very easily and very quickly at this point.”

Marginalized by whom?The Soros-funded attack machine?The liberal-dominated “mainstream media”?Fox News-dominated conservative media? The Obama White House?

Clearly, something has us all on lockdown. That’s much, much scarier than even the amazing possibility that some con artist might be pulling off the biggest scam in history."

http://www.wnd.com/2012/03/why-the-silence-about-obamas-historic-scam/

Wimpy, wimpy, wimpy.

[Jack is Back!]

Okay, lawyers, is it possible for the SCOTUS to hold the orals next week and then decide not to render a judgement? IOW's no decision. And does anyone know what kind of a barometer justices questions are to where the case decision is heading? I heard something on the radio this morning that there is some uncertainty as to whether SCOTUS is prepared to make a decision. I have no idea why not if they are going thru the process of hearing orals. But it was some guy who knew his way around the court.

[Thomas Collins]

Mel, although there was no severability clause, SCOTUS is not bound to croak the whole statute if it croaks the mandate. I'm going to try to find the Eleventh Circuit decision to LUN here. It has an excellent discussion on severability.

[Sue]

You can always tell when MSM thinks Obama has stepped in it. ABC News Radio is reporting Obama's statement, minus the "if I had a son he would look like Travon" remark.

[NK]

JiB-- sounds like you heard a discussion of 'ripeness' or 'standing'. The Court could issue a strictly procedural decision that avoids the merits until a future case. I doubt it though-- 6 HOURS of argument?

[Jim Ryan]

DoT, do you think any of the justices will find the mandate to be a bridge too far from Wickard v. Fillburn and Gonzales vs. Raich? I don't think many will. Probably just Thomas.

[Thomas Collins]

JiB, I don't think this is the type of case that will be sent back for more factfinding. However, one possible scenario is that SCOTUS rules the mandate is a tax and the federal anti-injunction tax provisions prevent a challenge until the tax is actually assessed on a taxpayer. I don't think this will happen. I think SCOTUS is not going to punt this.

[NK]

Sue-- interesting. I agree with CaptH that the 'son would look like me' was 'Bam's narcisist touch. I think he went off the Axelrod script saying that.

[NK]

ThomasC-- I agree with your 12:36. We'll see.

[Thomas Collins]

See LUN for the Eleventh Circuit decision. The severability discussion is in Part VII of the opinion (starting on page 189).

[NK]

ThomasC-- thanks for the link, I'll read it with interest this weekend.

[Thomas Collins]

NK, I find the reasoning in the LUNed summary persuasive on the anti-injunction issue, but I concede that it could go the other way on this issue.