No Wager Left Behind

I happened across this smackdown between Greg Mankiw and Paul Krugman dating back to March 2009.  Prof. Mankiw challenged Prof. Krugman to a bet on CEA growth forecasts through the end of 2013.

Team Obama says that real GDP in 2013 will be 15.6 percent above real GDP in 2008. (That number comes from compounding their predicted growth rates for these five years.) So, Paul, are you willing to wager that the economy will meet or exceed this benchmark? I am not much of a gambler, but that is a bet I would be happy to take the other side of (even as I hope to lose, for the sake of the economy).

My question - how have the numbers come in so far, who is winning (at the current pace) and what GDP growth would we need to see to flip the result? It's all hypothetical since Prof. Krugman never stepped up.

Time does not permit just now, but if someone wants to poke at this we can surely vex someone with the result.

BACK ON THE CHAINED GANG: We are trying to keep it real in the comments.  GDP in current dollars has been:

2008 14,291.5
2009 13,939.0
2010 14,526.5
2011 15,094.0

Total growth so far: 5.6% (1.8% per annum)

Growth needed over last 8 quarters: 4.6% per annum; a Krugman victory might be in sight, if the bet wasn't based on real GDP.

However, measured in chained 2005 dollars we see this from the BEA:

2008 13,161.9
2009 12,703.1
2010 13,088.0
2011 13,315.1

Total growth so far: 1.2% (0.4% per annum)

Real growth needed over last 8 quarters: 6.9% per annum

Obviously, the first quarter of 2012 is in the bag, and it won't be 6.9%.

Mankiw is on a glide path to a "real" victory, which is a bummer for all of us.  Especially since Krugman is quicker to toss around words like "evil" and "obtuseness" than to actually put up and shut up.

Comments

[RichatUF]

Finally a Krugman thread! With no Krugman!

I'll look up the numbers in a minute.

[jimmyk]

No time either, but I'm sure it's close to zero, maybe a couple percent higher. Of course, per capita that means it's about 15 percent lower.

[jimmyk]

15=5 (don't quote me out of context)

[BigA]

You can download the GDP table here:

http://www.bea.gov/national/

Looks like 2011 real GDP is a little above 1% higher than 2008 real GDP. So we'd have to have a couple great years of growth to even come close.

[NK]

I was assured there would be no math on this Blog!

[Ignatz]

--So we'd have to have a couple great years of growth to even come close.--

That's why we have to reelect Barry; he's just gettin warmed up.
As soon as that porkulus II and cash for clunkers II kicks in...look out.

[RichatUF]

From the BEA:

2008 14,291.5
2009 13,939.0
2010 14,526.5
2011 15,094.0

15.6% above 2008 is 16520.97 which makes us 1,426.97 short. To get to where we need to be we'd need to manage 9.45% over the next 7 quarters to make the target. I probably did the math wrong.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

Quick peak at BEA numbers for real GDP in billions of dollars;

2008 14,291.5
2009 13,939.0
2010 14,526.5
2011 15,094.0

Real growth being nearly non-existent up to now.

[NK]

RichatUF-- you math looks about right- that's about a 5.25% annual rate of real GDP growth; the POTUS council of economic advisors projects about 2.75% annual growth the next 7 quarters (LOL!!!). Mankiw wins!!-- WE LOSE!! Obamanoics has been a disaster.

[matt]

Nice to see Douglas Kennedy invoke his daddy's name in his child endangerment case. LUN.

Really, it's okay....I'm a member of the oligarchy....

[NK]

BTW-- TomM-- for the love of god man, stop blogging and pay your taxes. I know it's hard writing that 7 figure check, but once Obama imposes the Buffett Rule you'll remember these days fondly!

[NK]

Matt-- ugh. I've never met Douglas Kennedy, wouldn't know him from Adam, but he certainly sounds like the 2nd Generation spawn of Joseph Kennedy, Sr.

[Perfectsense]

I am not sure what "real GDP" is, but the figures above are in current dollars, not constant dollars. USA GDP in chained (constant) 2006 dollars (from the BEA website):

2008 $13,161.9
2009 $12,703.1
2010 $13,088.0
2011 $13,315.1

So despite a growing population, real GDP is essentially flat over four years.

[Rick Ballard]

Rich,

Why wouldn't you go with real chained dollars (1.1.6) rather than just GDP (1.1.5)? The 1.1.6 numbers are

2008 13,161.9
2009 12,703.1
2010 13,088.0
2011 13,315.1

The 2013 target would be 15215.16 and it would require an annualized rate of growth of 6.9% for 2012 and 2013 to get there from 2011.

It's a shame that Mankiw doesn't have a sworn and notarized affidavit of acceptance from Krugman with a vow of perpetual silence as the wager.

[NK]

RBallard-- mankiw would certainly agree his wager contemplated dollars chained to the real 2008 value. 6.9% annualized growth for the next 7 quarters? I think 'Bam will come up juuuuust a bit short. WE lose.

[Janet]

from matt's link -
"One nurse said Kennedy twisted her arm as she tried to keep him from leaving with the baby, and another said he kicked her."

and "Kennedy lawyer, Robert Gottlieb, called the prosecution "a disgrace.""

Why is it a disgrace? It was a disgrace how Kennedy acted! Kennedy couldn't be bothered with the hospital safety rules that apply to everyone else. I feel bad for the nurses. He should be treated like anyone else would be treated.

[Captain Hate]

"Kennedy lawyer, Robert Gottlieb, called the prosecution "a disgrace."

On the Today show they had security camera film of it; yes it's a disgrace for an adult male holding his newborn to be kicking a nurse who could have been preventing a kidnapping for all she knew. Of course the gutter scum invoked the memory of his father in defending his ignorant act. Will we ever be rid of these Kennedy vermin?

[Rick Ballard]

NK,

It would be of some interest to rank government economic forecasts from 2008 in order from worst to very worst. Is the CBO markedly worse than the CEA? Does the BLS have an edge over the BEA? Is there a particular economic model used as a guide by the Fed which sucks worse than all others combined?

President Barack Hussein LePetomane needs to know immediately - how deep will the crater in which he is going to find himself on Nov. 6th actually be? Will light be able to penetrate to the bottom?

[Jim,MtnViewCA,USA]

"Will light be able to penetrate to the bottom?"
Having carefully read comments regarding the Rules of Holes in prev threads, I know the answer: Not if he keeps digging.

[Thomas Collins]

TK, are you here?

[boatbuilder]

!!!GRAMMATICAL ERROR IN THE SECOND SENTENCE!!! This entire thread is invalid. TM is obviously a dunce.

[Rick Ballard]

"!!!GRAMMATICAL ERROR IN THE SECOND SENTENCE!!!

That is a sentence fragment. Go sit in the corner next to TM and write a 1,000 word essay on the repeal of Okun's Law.

[Threadkiller]

I am, TC. Did you receive a goofy email?

[Thomas Collins]

I have received other emails from purported JOMers that turned out to be spam. Is yours real? If so, I'll reply pronto.

[Threadkiller]

The real deal.

[Thomas Collins]

OK, TK, I replied. I don't know if my reply has made its way through the intertuby webs.

[Threadkiller]

It did. I have thumbed my response.

[Thomas Collins]

Got it and replied. I guess we should cease giving our friends here a narrative of when we send the emails back and forth. They are probably bored with it.

[Threadkiller]

They full well know what I could be posting about. This must seem like a reprieve.

[AliceH]

TC and TK: Actually, I'm laughing at your blog comment conversation about your updates to your email conversation.

You should Tweet!

[Janet]

I'm gonna put this post by Jane on this newer thread for those interested -

"BTW, since our intrepid leader is unavailable, I'm going to interview Kevin Williamson tomorrow on DaTechguy's radio show. I'll be there from 10-12 with the interview happening in the 11:00 hour. Williamson has written the April cover story for NRO on Elizabeth Warren.

You can find links to listen at You Too. For you Baystaters it is 830 AM.

Posted by: Jane (where is Jon Corzine?) | April 13, 2012 at 07:35 AM

[Rick Ballard]

TM should have linked Brad DeLong's Krugman suckup post. Ya just gotta love his sincere belief in well modeled idiocy.

[henry]

Tk & TC, it's is better than this. After 15 months of insanity, WI is about to be carpet bombed with political ads. We're not even looking at the tip of the tip of the iceberg," he said of the slew of ads.. I heard that something like $60-90 million will be spent here between now and the first Tuesday in June. The article gives a pretty good overall sitrep.

[narciso]

It's just all fish slapping this week;

http://www.therightscoop.com/dws-pressed-by-radio-host-on-hypocrisy-of-being-a-guest-on-bill-mahers-show/

[Pops]

Being a stay at home Dad, I am not qualified to answwer such questions, those are for people who work.

Pass the bon bons....

[Pops]

Anyone know how to get silly putty out of crying two year olds hair?

[Pops]

Ahhh mental capability spent from two posts in one day..must rest. I don't know how the folks that work for a living do it. Retrieval of one jelly bean pushed into the sinus cavity and I'm just knackered.....
Must call Hillary for tips...

[Thomas Collins]

I have a Twitter account, AliceH, but I haven't tweeted much. Perhaps that will be my next intertubes communication skill to try to learn.

Hopefully, henry, in the end Walker will prevail and the Dems will have spent valuable money for nothing. But I can see how the TC-TK narrative might be a welcome relief. It sounds from the article that it's going to be all ads all the time.

[Threadkiller]

Try this, Pops:

[henry]

TC, I don't mind the ads -- plenty of books on my to read list. The robocalls will increase in proportion to the ads, ugh.

[narciso]

Ah, henry, it seems the insanity has been dialed up to eleven, of course this is necessary because of the evil Koch's, sarc

http://www.therightscoop.com/andrea-mitchell-
cant-pin-rosens-comments-on-obama-because-his-wife-is-a-homemaker/

[Kathy]

I suggest a smackdown with past wealthy dem presidents v romney on tax returns.
Any wagers on calculations with current law as to who would have paid the least in the alphabet soup FDR, JFK, LBJ, JFK jr.(Kerry) and the current earning of Bill and Hillary the duo. I seem to remember the Heinz Kerry's at 12% south of the romney 15 paid tax already once but let's catch it again taxes.

[NO_LIMIT_NIGGA]

Anyone know how to get silly putty out of crying two year olds hair?

http://www.ehow.com/how_2126143_remove-silly-putty-from-hair.html

Ain't the internet grand?

[narciso]

And keep this in mind;

http://www.therightscoop.com/sarah-palin-and-eric-bolling-promo-for-paying-at-the-pump/

maybe the fact that she stuck out her neck for Walker and rallied subsequently for Prosser, means something, or not,

[sbw]

Anyone know how to get silly putty out of crying two year olds hair?

I thought mayonnaise worked. But don't take my word; look it up on the innertubes.

[sbw]

Someone else says mayo, too.

[GMax]

I would say scissors do the trick.

[Rob Crawford]

I expect to hear this later:

"Anyone know how to get a mix of silly putty and mayo out of carpet? Oh, and do you think the dog will be OK after eating it?"

[bgates]

One nurse said Kennedy twisted her arm as she tried to keep him from leaving with the baby

According to leftist "thought", Kennedy was just standing his ground. The nurse was stalking him, and he was entitled to respond to the assault by beating her to death if necessary.

[Danube of Thought]

What are the polls showing, Henry?

[Neo]

The best view that I've come to is that at least Romney has a clue about how economics works. Obama on the other hand shows us why he won't release his college transcript.

[BhurkaLady]

When warmongers fail, I guess it's okay to gloat a little :)

"Iran's ayatollahs will make Iran the laughing stock of the world when they find out the South Africans put guano into the "enriched uranium" which they sold to China, who gave it to North Korea, who sold it to Iran.

Posted by: BhurkaLady | July 09, 2008 at 07:53 AM" (LUN)

Between Stuxnet and Op Guano,
I'm having a jolly good laugh!

[Rumal Wire Service]

Russia and China coming around to 'tighten the noose' around Syria. 4/12/12.

But the regime killings continue.
Live Updates on Syria's Uprising by Lebanese bloggers in solidarity with Syrians.

[Ralph L]

Will we ever be rid of these Kennedy vermin?
Hire more nurses to take their babies.

[henry]

Danube, last I heard Walker is +2 with 2% undecided. This will be a turnout battle like the Prosser v Kloppster last year. Thus wall to wall adds and constant robocalls. At least the redistricting was signed off by the courts (who redrew the line between two D assembly districts for La Raza and approved the rest).

[squaredance]

Considering they lie about inflation, most pointedly by ignoring key categories of goods, one rather doubts even these grim numbers.

I would really like to see the demographic, and market segmentation distributions of their numbers. I would also like to see adjustments multinational overseas profits and foreign labor, R & D and manufacturing layouts accounted for in these numbers. Even the aware would be shocked, I'd wager.

The middle class is getting ripped hard, many are being kicked out of it, not to return for at least another generation. Many, perhaps a majority, are headed to a much more limited retirement once the long term inflation and the limited growth prospects click in.

I am sure that our globalist, politically connected, America hating, tranzi class, our new betters, are making out quite well in their "knowledge economy" (talk about an oxymoron), and the Devil take the rest of us.

All a part of the program: Destroy America, destroy the (mostly white) middle class.
We are ruled by monsters. they hate the very nation and civilization that they sprung from.

The legacy of all of this will be long abiding ruin, harm and damage vastly greater than the the effects of the Carter years. If you think food and fuel cost are ever going back down to anything near the level before 2007 or 2008, or that wages or growth will rise to offset these as they did on the 80's, you are not paying attention.

All a part of the plan. They last thing they want is a free and prosperous middle class. They, immorally, think it immoral and unseemly.

They will most likely get their way.

With our industrial base, our schools and our key social and political institutions in tatters--with the great heaps of social, moral and political rot we now are crippled with--we are hardly in the position to bounce back like we did in the Reagan years. At least then we had the economic push of the young boomers coming of age. We had factories back then. We did not have this huge, paralyzing and traitorous Nomenklatura to support. We led in Science and Technology. We still believed in ourselves. Our Socialist Oligarchs figured all this out this time around.

Brazil, Mexico, UK, here we come.

Doubtful if it is ever turned around. America destroyed from within, and not by "short-sightedness" but willfully and with open eyes by our "leaders" for generations. Shear insanity.

How history will mock us. Bet on that.

[mark l.]

"Brazil, Mexico, UK, here we come."
****************

actually, 'Canada', here we come.

if one has the money to move, the relative existance in Canada over the next 50 years, is as bright for them, as it is dark for the US.

one of the main features of the US, is the quality of healthcare, despite what liberals believe.

the trick to keeping the frogs in a heating bowl, I'd imagine, requires not heating the water in a microwave. paul krugman tapping on the glass is not very soothing, either.

america is heading for a diaspora...
we'll still be americans, but we won't be living in America. The rich can move, the poor get stuck here, with the mismanagement.

[Jamie]

I bet you that you will still be posting silly gotcha rants in 2013.

What, you don't want to step up?

[mark l.]

if the economy is this 'stagant' in 2013, (AND a republican gets elected), this 'silly gotcha rant' will be the template for objective examination, once again.

this level of stagnant growth hasn't been seen since carter, yet the duration seems to have exceeded carter's.

never fear, once we get legitimate economic growth, we get the commensurate inflation that is 'building up in the pipes'.

[lucklucky]

It is idiotic to bet in so short time growth. A Government can heat the economy to have artificial growth.

[tripleforte]

This bet reminds me of the bet, made in 1980, between Julian Simon ans doomsayer Paul Ehrlich on whether the prices of each of five metals, selected by Ehrlich, would be higher ten years later, in 1990. The bet involved $200 per metal, with Simon betting that the prices would be lower. Fuller story in this link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager