We All Gotta Go Sometime, But What's The Hurry?

Glenn links to this bit of health news from Theodore Dalrymple at PJ Media.

It is meant to be funny, and is, but it has still summoned forth my Inner Pedant, always lurking beneath the surface of this seemingly fun-loving exterior. And not far beneath the surface, either.

The question is, how much exercise provides a health benefit? The theme is set here:

Between 1996 and 2008, the Taiwanese researchers divided 416,175 people into five categories, according to the amount of exercise, on self-report, that they did: from none to a lot. They discovered that those who did a little exercise, on average 92 minutes per week, had a reduction of 14 percent in their all-cause rate of mortality. They also found that “every additional 15 minutes of daily exercise beyond the minimum of 15 minute per day further reduced all-cause mortality by 4 percent.”

The subsequent letter to the Lancet pointed out that this cannot be correct: for if it were correct, and on the assumption that the relation between exercise and longevity were a causative one, Man would be immortal if only he did sufficient daily exercise, something in the region of six hours. In these circumstances, at least in my opinion, life would not actually go on forever; it would merely seem as if it did, in the sense of being boring and pointless.

I remember reading about life extension by calorie restriction and had a similar reaction - these people may live to age 120 by eating ground shirt cardboard and walking around at 6'2", 120 lbs, but it will seem a lot longer. But then again:

''For every calorie you save, there's about a 30-second increase in your life span,'' he said. ''It's worth more to me to have an extra two to three minutes of life than an extra slice of pizza.''

Worth keeping in mind.

But let's not keep the Inner Pedant waiting! The obvious problem with the 'exercising to immortality' hypothesis is that it represents an extrapoloation beyond the experimental range, and we know how problematic that can be.

In fact, the paper itself makes that very point:

After the minimum recommended 15 min a day of exercise, every additional 15 min of daily exercise (up to 100 min a day, after which additional exercise gave no additional health benefi t) is expected to generate an additional reduction of 4% (95% CI 2·5–7·0) all-cause and 1% (0·3–4·5) allcancer mortality.

This gives me an excuse to clip in their cool graph and use the word "asymptotic":

At a more basic level, this paper does not seem to distinguish cause and effect. Rather than randomly assigning large groups of people to the different exercise intensity groups (as if that could be done over a long period), they rely on self-selection and self-reporting. Consequently, as is so often the case with this type of study, we are left wondering whether exercise makes people healthier, or healthier people simply enjoy exercise more.

Well. Make the mock if you will, but those diligent exercisers are lookin' good and feelin' better. Unless they are laid up with some ghastly injury, natch.

 

Comments

[peter]

Do an hour and forty minutes of aerobic exercise daily and you will indeed look and feel great. However, the injuries do make it difficult to sustain that regime. I remember reading somewhere that Christie Brinkley, when she was a SI cover girl did four hours of aerobics daily.

[Ignatz]

--I remember reading somewhere that Christie Brinkley, when she was a SI cover girl did four hours of aerobics daily.--

And yet she married Billy Joel so can we state that exercise is statistically correlated with stupidity and bad judgment?

[Ignatz]

--I remember reading about life extension by calorie restriction and had a similar reaction - these people may live to age 120 by eating ground shirt cardboard and walking around at 6'2", 120 lbs, but it will seem a lot longer.--

Let's not forget these studies only give us a broad average of effects.
For a significant cohort of low calorie cretins they will eat cardboard for a few decades and then keel over from a heart attack or contract cancer at 40 or 50 anyway, getting the worst of all possible worlds.
I suppose using TM's logic their early death will be a release from their self imposed hell.

[Thomas Collins]

There is something odd about all this focus on exercise and health. The main benefit of exercise is the same as the main benefit of woodworking, reading, speedboat racing, and every other type of imaginable human activity, namely, that these activities feed our being. Different activities may feed different beings, but the primary reason to engage in an activity not directly related to putting food in one's mouth and one's family's mouths is the generalized sense of well being that one gets from the activity, even if some statistical study concludes it reduces one's life.

Applying the Ignatz Food Intake Rule to exercise, do whatever exercise you like doing, since we're all going to croak anyway.

[jimmyk]

Man would be immortal if only he did sufficient daily exercise, something in the region of six hours.

Apart from the extrapolation issue, this seems to be based on a basic math error of multiplying the 4% by 24 (the number of 15 minute intervals in 6 hours) as opposed to compounding it, which by my calculation only reduces mortality by 62%.

[Ignatz]

TC has always struck me as a particularly astute and sagacious fellow. :)

[jimmyk]

the primary reason to engage in an activity not directly related to putting food in one's mouth and one's family's mouths is the generalized sense of well being that one gets from the activity

That's fine if by "generalized sense of well being" you include the possibility of an activity that's unpleasant while you do it but makes you feel better in the future. But it sounds like that's not what you have in mind.

[Clarice]

I was quite fit and slender when I did heavy aerobics at least an hour a day and swimming 1/2 hour per day, unfortunately I could not sustain that sort of narcissistic focus on my body and my joints were giving way.

[NK]

Ig/and TC are of course right, eating right and exercise are their own rewards, not a guaranteed pass to some bell curved life extension result. I would quibble with Ig about Christie Brinkley-- I bet she got a sizable settlement from Billy Joel in the divorce, probaly more than paid for the 9 year investment. I am biased though, I think she's one of the most beautiful things ever created-- right up there with the P-51D Mustang and the Jaguar E Class.

[Ignatz]

--I would quibble with Ig about Christie Brinkley-- I bet she got a sizable settlement from Billy Joel in the divorce, probaly more than paid for the 9 year investment.--

I'm not sure there's enough money in the world to compensate for nine years of being fondled by;

--I am biased though, I think she's one of the most beautiful things ever created-- right up there with the P-51D Mustang and the Jaguar E Class.--

I used to own a 63 Jaguar Series One E Type. My 63 Series One E Type was a friend of mine. Christie Brinkley is no 63 Series One E Type.

[Rob Crawford]

They also found that “every additional 15 minutes of daily exercise beyond the minimum of 15 minute per day further reduced all-cause mortality by 4 percent.”

So a 40-minute daily workout makes you immortal?

[Rob Crawford]

''For every calorie you save, there's about a 30-second increase in your life span,'' he said. ''It's worth more to me to have an extra two to three minutes of life than an extra slice of pizza.''

Or you can have a life you enjoy.

It's not that dieters live longer -- it just seems that way.

[Captain Hate]

I am biased though, I think she's one of the most beautiful things ever created

Didn't she subsequently make an even dumber choice for a spouse than Billy Joel?

[NK]

Ig says:"I used to own a 63 Jaguar Series One E Type. My 63 Series One E Type was a friend of mine. Christie Brinkley is no 63 Series One E Type." Man you are the best. Logger, fitness enthusiast and '63 E TYPE OWNER. depending on how your family litigation turns out, you may want to invest in one of these -- last year they were going for $1.6M, but, it is beautiful:http://www.google.com/#hl=en&sclient=psy-ab&q=eagle+convertible+e+type+design&oq=eagle+convertible+e+type+design&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_l=hp.3...4624.13248.0.13670.31.29.0.2.2.0.219.2905.19j9j1.29.0...0.0.f_0aSy-CJP8&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=e114240fdc1e65f0&biw=1024&bih=571

[NK]

CaptH-- yes, she went on to marry a cretin architect named Cook, last year the NY Post had a field day with the divorce trial testimony about the children he was bedding ( not statutory -- but ridiculous stuff by this architect to the Hamptons stars.)

[Ignatz]

Yeah I saw that Eagle E Type on Top Gear, NK. Amazing car, but I could buy a superb restored E Type roadster and have about $1.5 million left over. And with the original I actually get a top to keep the rain out. :)

[Frau]

TED series: Thinking about the optimism bias
(kinda short LUN)

[Frau Lehrerin a.D.]

Clearly OT after reading The Serf's Collar.
It's interesting to me that Ayers and "other" authoritarians/anarchists do not want to debate or defend their beliefs--core or convenient.* You must accept and assimilate. There is no questioning. We know, because we are told, that cooperative learning is best and feelings trump reality.** Shame is good only for activities contrary to progressive dogma and goals

* I'd pay to see rse take down Stanford's Linda Darling-Hammond (Preparing teachers for a changing world).
**Ann Curry to Paul Ryan: "Where's your empathy?")

[Thomas Collins]

Jimmyk, I would include in "generalized sense of well being" an activity that was unpleasant while being done but was being done in service of a purpose, which doesn't have to be life extension. I would concede that for some, life extension itself would be a fine purpose (for example, an individual who concluded that the ability to engage in contemplation as a human being as long as possible is a high purpose). What I find odd is life extension as a purpose seeming to override other purposes for exercise.

[Clarice]

The guy who created coach potatoes--that is, the remote control device that made their lives before the tube possible--just died. He was 95.

[sbwaters]

The guy who created coach potatoes . . .

invented remote controlled buggy whips.

[Thomas Collins]

I'll bet the individual who is the subject of the LUNed (via Instapundit) article isn't concerned whether the activities resulting in his microsculpture extends his lifespan.

[Ralph L]

I was 6'2" and 120 lbs when I got my first driver's license. I was too embarrassed to claim it and put down 125. Now I'm 35 years older and 35 lbs heavier, but don't really look it. I must be more dense.

[Clarice]

Ah, so, SBW. I thought t looked funny.

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