Thursday ObamaCare Death Watch

Voyeurs and scholars are gathering at the bedside...

ScotusBlog will have the death (or life!) live. The Supreme Court website will have the opinions shortly after they are released.

My prediction is pain. Also, confusion.

FOX: Mandate is unconstitutional.

SCOTUSBLOG: Mandate survives as a tax.  OK, puzzling.

SCOTUSBLOG: "It's complicated".

SB: Mandate lives! Roberts joins left. [link]

ROVE ON FOX: If the mandate survives as a tax that probably enhances the controversy over the bill.

SB: "Tom: The bottom line: the entire ACA is upheld, with the exception that the federal government's power to terminate states' Medicaid funds is narrowly read."

OK, my prediction held up.  On to showing contempt for Holder!

SHORTER ROBERTS: Congress cannot regulate inactivity under the Commerce Clause but it can tax inactivity under their taxing powers.  Because that makes sense...

Comments

[centralcal]

Well, I guess I fall into the voyeur category.

[NK]

60 Minutes until the Obamacarepalooza-- why do I think this will be like TomM's clown car and the 9 Justices piling out more than anything else?

[Melinda Romanoff]

I don't think I needed to know that.

[narciso]

It's a wonder, this even has to be written;

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/06/27/liberals-shouldn-t-defend-fdr-s-attacks-on-the-court.html

[Rick Ballard]

Regardless of the outcome, Ras notes 54% of the electorate want it gone, the same percentage as the day after it passed. My prediction is Governor Romney will take 53-55% on November 6, wholly consonant with the percentage of the electorate who give President Obama an F- for his greatest "achievement".

[Janet]

My prediction is pain.

Yes. Pain, lots of pain.

[narciso]

I don't know if I'd be that affirmative, but the law is not so cut and dry;

http://babalublog.com/2012/06/miami-federal-judge-not-up-to-speed-on-sanctions-law/

[cboldt]

Scalia will cite Raich, and vote to uphold the mandate.

[maryrose]

cboldt:
For the first time ever I disagree with you. But you are scaring me!

[narciso]

It's nice to know they are taking it with their usual aplomb;

http://reason.com/blog/2012/06/27/obamacarians-pregame-rationalizations-do

[maryrose]

OT:
Black house members plan a walkout during contempt vote. Holder's "people" are closing ranks.

[cboldt]

I don't trust Scalia, but I don't really think he'll do uphold the ACA on the foundation of his screw-up in Raich. The remark was intended to be just for dramatic effect. Sorry for the scare.

I do wonder how SCOTUS will dispose of the argument that the plaintiff's challenge runs afoul of the anti-injunction act.

[RichatUF]

maryrose-

It won't help him.

Surprised that DOOM hasn't made the list.

[Danube of Thought]

Minus 20 at Raz today.

Tied with Romney.

[MarkO]

Bad moon risin'.

[narciso]

I don't know how Raich is relevant, marijuana
has already been illegal since 1937, it was a restorative action,

[Danube of Thought]

"but I don't really think he'll do uphold the ACA on the foundation of his screw-up in Raich"

What's with the "do?"

[Captain Hate]

This is a heads we win tails you lose situation. I'm really not sweating the outcome other than a smackdown would probably provide a boost to the economy and even the dimwitted independents would be unable not to see the correlation.

[cboldt]

The extraneous "do" was going to be part of a song lyric, then I lost my train of thought.

[NK]

Anti-Injunction Act? If the mandate is constitutionally infirm, invalidation isn't injunction-- it makes the law a nullity. The scope of the invalidation however is a issue-- can SCOTUS invalidate provisions that have not yet taken effect? is there currently a case in controversy? does the fact that HHS has promulgated regs for those 2014 provisons make the statute ripe for invalidation? Raich? God I hope Scalia regrets Raich as much as Kennedy must regret Kelo.

[Melinda Romanoff]

do-be-do-be-doooo....

[hit and run]

DoT:
Minus 20 at Raz today.

Seventh straight day at minus 20 or lower, fifth time ever for a streak that long.

This current streak is marked more by a big drop in his Strong Approve than a rise in his Strong Disapprove. On 6/21, the last date he was above minus 20, Obama was at 27% strong Approve and is at 22% today -- whereas he went from 41% Strong Disappprove on 6/21 to 42% today.

All those sops to "his base" have been just as successful as just about every other effort Obama has put in during his time in office.

[narciso]

I've often remarked he's like Evil Tommy Boy;

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/jack-coleman/2012/06/27/thwarted-msnbc-flamethrower-ed-schultz-says-romney-would-let-detroit-b

[Janet]

ACA - The Affordable Care Act or The American Cornhole Association?

[MarkO]

I can't help but wonder what effect Obama's cowardly attack on the SCOTUS at the SOU address might have on a Justice who just might have leaned in his favor here.

[rse]

Melinda-I was referring to our fashionista JOMer who tracks that entity because a relative views it as the panacea for the nation's troubles. And yes, CASEL is located at Ayers' employer.

hit-we stayed at Banff Springs in the honeymoon suite because that's just where they put us unexpectedly. Moraine Lake was empty but my parents have stayed there when it is full and love it.

There was a full moon at Lake Louise and I woke everyone up about 3 to see Victoria Glacier's reflection on the lake. There had been avalanches that winter so the pathway by lake was blocked from about halfway on. Both my dad and I had on jeans and boots so we climbed over. It was late afternoon and all the wildlife were out not expecting tourist. Closest I will ever get to a beaver. I can still hear that thump with the tail as he saw us and dove under.

[Ignatz]

OT but interesting short article on Japan's debt woes.

With interest rates around .5% in Japan, 1/4 of their budget already goes to interest payments. If they tick up to 2%, a quadrupling but hardly an unattainable number, their entire budget will go to interest payments.

This idea that vast debt burdens are sustainable if most of the debt is domestically held will die an unpleasant death soon; whether in Italy, China, Japan or all three remains to be seen. (put the US in there as well if you'd like)

[glasater]

Big favor to ask for some brave soul to live blog what happens at MessNBC during the announcement.
I just cannot bring myself to tune to that network.

[cboldt]

-- Closest I will ever get to a beaver. --

That song lyric is coming back to me now.

[Jane]

Hit,

People keep saying Obama is gaining strength, particularly in the last week.

Do you see that?

[Clarice]

It's insane that the whole nation must await the decision of 9 unelected--often ancient--lawyers to find out what will happen to our health and 1/6 of our economy.

Idiots leading and weak knees following. PHEH

[Ignatz]

--Closest I will ever get to a beaver.--

When I read that line and thought of possible responses I realized what an incorrigible and probably insufferable wise ass I am.
Hello, my name is Ignatz and I'm a wise ass.

[maryrose]

Hit and Run:
Make a pit stop in Ohio and meet Captain H and me downtown at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Please?

[cboldt]

Obama is planning to give his reaction shortly after the announcement. I predict his chin will be elevated. Oh, wait, it always is.

[Jim Ryan]

It is absurd that we have to hang the fate of this country's health care system on two or three justices' opinions. I can't deal in absurdity. Therefore I choose to believe that this ruling doesn't matter. What the heck do I care whether Tony Kennedy gives this damn thing a thumbs up? That's not what matters.

What matters is that we install a conservative Congress and POTUS who will repeal the ACA, as well as removing many other pernicious components of the federal government. This is a non-absurd way of thinking about Obamacare.

No? Consider an analogy. Suppose Nancy and the gang, supported by their constituents, passed a law that all people between 5'6" and 5'7" should be beaten within an inch of their lives with a broom handle every day at 5pm. Suppose Zero signed the bill. It would be absurd to be joyous at a 5-4 decision that this law was unconstitutional. Gloating would make no sense.

It is absurd to let the fate of the most fundamental values hang on the SCOTUS. When it comes to that point, your system is broken and out of control, and it remains so whether or not Tony on the bench happens decide to protect those values on a certain occasion.

So, I don't care about this decision. This country is in big trouble and the SCOTUS can't save it. Only the voters can save it.

[maryrose]

glasater: I can't watch it either. However if it goes down , I will watch Chrissy Matthews try to spin it.

[Ann]

Maybe this will help:

Calling JMH...Come back we need you. :)

[Jane]

Geez it is 9:59. Holy cow.

[centralcal]

Showtime!

[hit and run]

Jane:
People keep saying Obama is gaining strength, particularly in the last week.

Do you see that?

No. Not gaining strength. Not at all. He really hasn't move much in any direction. The minus 20 streak means he's ticked off some lefties -- but his overall Disapprove numbers haven't moved much at all, being in a 51-54% range over the past 22 days, and his overall Approve numbers being between 44-47% over the past 27 days.

Nothing to this point has really mattered because the ruling today and the Holder contempt vote are....

Wait. 10:00. Gotta stop and wait for the ruling.

[MarkO]

Absurdity lies in the fact that more than one-half of our fellow American wanted Obama to be president and elected a supermajority to the Congress.

[centralcal]

Glad to see you got through your radio show, Jane. Was it tense?

[maryrose]

rse:
beaver comment,my mind went the way of Ignatz.This blog is changing me.

[Sue]

Court is in session.

[Rick Ballard]

Jane,

The widget on the Gallup Daily Approval Rating allows you to adjust the time period observed in the graph. There has been no statistically meaningful (defined as outside the MoE) movement since January. Another way to think of it is that he has flatlined in loser territory.

[Sue]

And twitter has gone silent. Everyone is waiting with bated breath.

[Janet]

Amen Clarice & Jim. Amen.

[Chubby]

((I can still hear that thump with the tail as he saw us and dove under.))

and heaven forbid, if Michelle Obama ever catches you *eating* a Beaver Tail, she'll thump you good:

((If you ever visited Ottawa, Ontario, Canada in the winter months on the Rideau Canal, that is the longest skating rink in the world, they serve what is called Beaver Tails. This is a pastry with sugar on top.)) LUN

[MarkO]

Kennedy authors Alverez. Not up to read the Obamacare opinion. That seems good for my side.

[Sue]

SCOTUS blog can't handle the traffic.

[NK]

So... one Federal statute today is invalidated-- Kennedy writes... Hmm...

[RichatUF]

When I read that line and thought of possible responses I realized what an incorrigible and probably insufferable wise ass I am.
Hello, my name is Ignatz and I'm a wise ass.

Having my morning cup of coffee and smiling. LOL.

4 minutes past 10.

[cboldt]

Conventional wisdom is that the ACA decision is authored by Roberts.

Be funny if the Court announces an extra session, say next week Thursday. Keeping the ball in the air is fun!

[centralcal]

I am on SCOTUSblog and they are showing it live also on Cspan3, Sue.

[Sue]

You can now lie about your military service.

[hit and run]

maryrose:

Make a pit stop in Ohio and meet Captain H and me

Would loooooove to. But we'll be passing through in the middle of the night...and a bit south of y'all to boot. As in passing through Dayton.

[Jane]

CC,

Not tense because Dick is never all that engaged. I thought it was interesting - but then I always do when I talk - I got to talk about about a living v static constitution. I like that stuff. We talked about the future of the dem party which Dick thinks is being decimated by Obama. I'll post the pod cast later.

[NK]

Thomas writes the Mortgage decision.. Hmm...
the odd are going up that Obamacare is affirmed 6-3 with Roberts writing

[Jane]

Stolen Valor is unconstitutional thanks to the 9th circuit.

[Sue]

C-cal,

I am on SCOTUS blog too. But every other refresh it crashes on me.

[MarkO]

Roberts now reading.

[centralcal]

ACA is up now, other case before it was dismissed.

[Jane]

Mandate unconstitutional!!!!!!!

[Clarice]

Scotusblog--"We have healthcare opinion"

[dublindave]

Roberts;individual mandate upheld.

Told ya!

[MarkO]

Doubters may now seek Roberts' forgiveness.

[RichatUF]

Mandate unconstitutional...

[Melinda Romanoff]

CNBC says mandate upheld.

[cboldt]

Obama to speak, will reverse the court with an EO.

[Jane]

SCotusblog says something different - says it survives as a tax./

[Sue]

Fox & CNN reporting the mandate was ruled unconstitutional.

[Clarice]

"The individual mandate survives as a tax."

Damn..Even though the govt said it was NOT a tax.

[MarkO]

Now it becomes a tax and Roberts runs and hides?

[RichatUF]

but it can be a tax...a schodenger mandate

[Danube of Thought]

Mandate survives as a tax?

[cboldt]

Shades of Rita Cosby announcing Gore wins. I'll wait for the smoke to clear.

[Clarice]

Scotusblog:Amy Howe: It's very complicated, so we're still figuring it out.

[hit and run]

This is like the moment in elections when the first exit polls are released

[Sue]

Mandate upheld according to twitter.

[RichatUF]

DOOM! Another cup of coffee.

[Chubby]

DRUDGE: "Mandate Gone"

[Sue]

Roberts joins the left, according to twitter.

[Clarice]

Sctusblog:The Medicaid provision is limited but not invalidated.

[narciso]

'Winning the Future'

[Sue]

Mandate is out under commerce clause but survives as a tax.

Got that?

[Melinda Romanoff]

Oh goodie. A big mess.

[centralcal]

Confusion reigns - mandate will stand under the taxing power.

[dublindave]

Ya'll need to listen to Dublindave in future.

Big shout out to deep-ass and his work on this,thanks bud!!!

[Cecil Turner]

Good grief. As if the goofball legislation wasn't complicated enough, we now have a court decision too complex for the Inside SCOTUS types to parse . . . and a precedent that'll no doubt haunt us in the future. Marvelous.

[MarkO]

Roberts goes with the left. Out the door and down the hall. Honest to God.

Taxing powers. Taxing patience.

[Jane]

According to Scotusblog:
The bottom line: the entire ACA is upheld, with the exception that the federal government's power to terminate states' Medicaid funds is narrowly read.

[Clarice]

Scotusblog:
10:13
Tom: The bottom line: the entire ACA is upheld, with the exception that the federal government's power to terminate states' Medicaid funds is narrowly read.

[Sue]

The mandate is upheld as a tax. Which Obama said it wasn't.

I really have a headache now.

[MarkO]

Doom. Doom. Doom. Well, I'm ready for the death panels.

[Ignatz]

My prediction holds true; they made a hash of it.

[dublindave]

Do I get kudos?

[woo woo]

If people don't like it they have a chance to fix it in November.

[Sue]

I told y'all Obama was a good actor. He knew.

[MarkO]

SCOTUS BLOG

Tom: The bottom line: the entire ACA is upheld, with the exception that the federal government's power to terminate states' Medicaid funds is narrowly read.

[cboldt]

SCOTUS scrooches the TeaParty.

[obscure reference to Gidney and Cloyd]