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June 27, 2012

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GMax

Boise State is awesome but you have to play in our house. Line looks light. You should give me 14 and we will bet big money...

centralcal

GMax: Whelan has since updated his post vis-a-vis Scalia.

derwill

"Please, please, please take this option, Barry. I beg of you."

He will, Lyle. I live in a deep blue city in a deep blue state, and all the liberals I know firmly believe that the vast majority of country wants Obamacare, no matter what the polls say, and those few that think they don't want it now will grow to love it once it is implemented. This is the Gospel according to Liberalism, and it simply does not occur to them to question the validity of it.

Elliott

Happy birthday, Janet!

Clarice

Hitched their wagon to the wrong star, didn't they?
http://cdn.breitbart.com/mediaserver/Breitbart/Big-Government/2012/Congress/live_from_capitol_hill_final_healthcare_debate-460x307.jpg?w=369

Sue

The most important thing to remember about tomorrow is not Obamacare or contempt charges. It is the 7th anniversary of the loss of:

Medal of Honor recipient, US Navy SEAL Lt. Michael P. Murphy, Navy Cross recipient

US Navy SEAL Gunners Mate 2nd Class Danny Phillip Dietz Jr.

Rest in peace, warriors. I'll never forget you.

US Navy Seal, Navy Cross recipient, Sonar Technician Matthew Axelson.

Jane

I'm trying to decide the best way of passing time tonight. Probably ought to watch a movie and go to bed early.

Porch,

I'm on the radio tomorrow between 8 and 9. So I have to spend an hour on the air on pins and needles. It's gonna kill me.

Sue

Wow, that post got messed up badly.

Medal of Honor recipient, US Navy SEAL Lt. Michael P. Murphy

Navy Cross recipient,US Navy SEAL Gunners Mate 2nd Class Danny Phillip Dietz Jr.

Navy Cross recipient, US Navy Seal Sonar Technician Matthew Axelson

Rest in peace, warriors. I'll never forget you.

centralcal

The one time being 3 hours behind you East Coasters is good - SCOTUS will come at 7 AM for me.

centralcal

Tonight is the WH annual congressional picnic and Eric Holder will be there. Awkward?

Melinda Romanoff

Jane-

Check your cell for subject matter.

narciso

Some reasons why I'm not cynical enough;


http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/06/27/2870903/court-affirms-suspension-firing.html

dublindave

-The most important thing to remember about tomorrow is not Obamacare or contempt charges. It is the 7th anniversary of the loss of-

Nah,i'm pretty sure Obamacare and the contempt charge are more important.

Sue

Also killed that day were members of the extraction team sent in to rescue/recover Murphy, Dietze, Axelson and Luttrell.

Jane

Mel,

I just deleted what came in (before I saw your post) I thought it was a game. Can you send it again?

narciso

I read Lattrell's book 'Sacrifice' about his time in Ramadi, after that operation, and his return to Afghanistan, very powerful.

GMax

Those are the fallen Seals in the book Lone Survivor.

The story made me furious at politicians and Navy brass. The rules of engagement are in a word ridiculous. We should make the brass and the politicians spend 30 days on the front line with those rules. I bet they would be changed in two...

Melinda Romanoff

Heh.

Done.

henry

Hit, Sheboygan Mayor, yeah another drunk. Then the senator that got recalled for cheating on his wife with another senator's 23 yo aide. Time for beer while we wait for the SC.

GMax

The Lt Col ( Commander in the Navy right?) who was responsible for Lt. Murphy and his men, personally went in to do the extract and died in the fireball crash of the chopper.

narciso

As for the TANGO responsible;


Ismail repeatedly spoke with the media, claiming credit for various attacks and threatening more bloodshed. He spoke with the American news network NBC twice in 2005, once in August and again in December, the latter of which he allowed journalists to videotape his discussion. In the tape, he detailed how he and his men ambushed the Navy SEALs and even presented video footage of the attack. Osama bin Laden reportedly sent a letter praising him and his men shortly after the helicopter was shot down in the summer of 2005.

Read more: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/04/_commander_ismail_im.php#ixzz1z25fzpgk

Sue

LCDR Erik S. Kristensen

Operation Red Wings, named after the Detroit hockey team.

GMax

I am pretty sure we the Rangers went in and got Latrell and they saw the Taliban up on the ridge, the resulting barrage on that position sent Ismail and most of his men to hell with pork dinners for life...

Sue

8 Navy SEALs and 8 Night Stalkers (160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (Airborne)) along with Murphy, Dietze and Axelson. 19 Special Forces in all.

Jack is Back!

Why is it that when you watch TV news (especially Fox) and they have stories on these POTUS polls none of the experts mention the internals of the polls and how they are skewed, etc. I come here and learn more about polls and their reality to perception from GMAX, Rick Ballard, et. al. But a guy like Karl Rove can't do that? Everyone is like believing The One is ahead big time when we all know he is not.

Anyone have any anwser to that?

BTW, for you soccer fans. Spain wins 4-2 on penalty kicks against Portugal who didn't even let Christiana Rinaldo, one of the top players in the world, take a kick. Weird.

narciso

Yes, the Quinnipiac, spotted the Dems +6, from May's Survey, just in Ohio, the man does not learn that the media is to paraphrase Matthews 'the enemy camp'

Jack is Back!

Its Luttrell not Lattrell.

Biggest cowboy Texas has ever produced. An American Hero who does not look like Obama's son.

GMax

Jack

The media wants a horse race. They need to sell soap and cars ( commercial ).

If you listen closely, occasionally Dick Morris will tell you about the internals of a poll. I have seen Karl Rove address it occasionally as well.

I think a lot of Republican strategists believe the media does the Democrats a disfavor, and they know the pollsters as the election goes closer will switch their methodology to more defensible assumptions so that they are not way off. Watch and giggle when pollsters start declaring "movement towards" Romney. It will happen. They will not be embarrassed and will want to be accurate especially on their last poll before the election.

pagar

JiB, when Memeorandum is publishing:

"Democratic campaign chair tells candidates to avoid convention"

My guess is that some leftists are getting the word that the phony polls may be wrong.

GMax

Marcus Luttrell he has a twin brother who was a Seal too.

Texan boys and heroes, we really dont deserve these fine warriors...

DGS

June 27 is the birthday for beautiful ladies. (It is also my wife's birthday.)

Porchlight

I'm on the radio tomorrow between 8 and 9. So I have to spend an hour on the air on pins and needles. It's gonna kill me.

That is rough, Jane. Does your station stream live? I seem to remember that. If so, I might be able to listen.

rse

Sometimes though it can be tough to read these in memoriam. Even though it is good they are remembered.

Sara (Pal2Pal)

Last night I was listening to a discussion on reported polling, when you get to the end of a month, the reported results are often skewed by polls way out of date, especially with state polls. Then you get an outlier like that Bloomberg poll and it gets thrown into the RCP average and that also gives a skewed result.

Rick Ballard

If any members of the vicious cycle tells too much truth, they will be rightfully shunned. A "close race" generates contributions, the contributions generate MFM ad revenue, a part of the revenue is used to commission polls, the polls are used to maintain the illusion of a "close race" which provides an opportunity for "expert commentators" to expound ad nauseum about the "close race", which generates contributions.

I don't blame anyone involved, any more than I blame the girls working at Aunt Sally's Place for insufficient chastity.

I sure wish the Supremes were as easy to dissect as a Quinnipiac poll.

GMax

RCP is the biggest joke every created. Blending in Adult polls and Registered Voters with Likely Voters polls is the stupidest idea since lighting a match to look in your gas tank.

narciso

Back when I really started paying attention in the '88 campaign, CNN had a good fair reporter, Rick Allen, doing the horse race,
the next thing I knew he was writing a tome
about the history of Coca Cola,

Porchlight

SCOTUSblog publisher predicts Obamacare will be upheld. Ugh.

Captain Hate

I'm no expert on these things but it seems like both candidates are being excessive with the tv ads on Cleveland stations. You can't go to a commercial break without hearing at least one from each side, and usually more. There's nothing that can keep me from the polls on election day but I'm wondering if too many ads have ever reduced voting.

GMax

While no one knows other that Zero apparently right Sue? I think the finding of constitutionality to be the very worst outcome for Zero and his merry band of malcontents and never do wells...

rse

GMax-I raised this point with Jimmyk last week.

Constitutional means no real limits. We only have the legislative branch to turn to.

That's not this country. That would be just a shred of the Constitutional rights as in impenetrable zone where the king may not pass without permission that that document created for us.

We can't have the only real protection be from the princes and princesses on the hill.

Janet

Happy Birthday to your wife, DGS...& to Verner....& thanks for the birthday wishes & songs.

This Obamacare atrocity would be 95% dead already if we had a Congress worth a damn.
..instead we sit & wait to hear what the Supreme Court says.

Captain Hate

What percentage of donks do you think are hoping the ACA gets completely rejected? Especially if Boehner squeezes them by scheduling voting to defund it (per Rick)?

narciso

So much for 'spiking the football, twice;


http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/06/aqap_regroups_in_abyan_provinc.php

(Another) Barbara

I think he knows and I think he is overacting in the opposite direction, knowing they upheld it. But I've been wrong before.

You're a wise woman, Sue. I don't think you're wrong. I've girded loins and have my handkerchief ready.

GMax

RSE if you put one more malcontent or never do well on the Supreme Court, and they will ignore the precedent?

You protection is not allowing Democrats or conniving not patriot Republicans ( a subset for sure ) to serve in the majority. Ever.

Porchlight

Happy birthday to verner and to your wife, DGS!

I'm trying to be prepared for the worst, but I'm not doing a very good job. :)

(Another) Barbara

I think the finding of constitutionality to be the very worst outcome for Zero and his merry band of malcontents

No. It will help him enormously, more's the pity.

narciso

You know the results here, remind me of those annoying Direct TV commercials

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/06/27/video-millions-of-americans-are-suffering-through-an-economic-depression-says-joe-biden/

Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet

The new Fox News poll as reported tonight on Special Report seems troubling. Does anyone have the internals?

Rick Ballard

CH,

Cleveland is within the perimeter of Fortress BOzo and his only chance of holding Ohio is to drive ABO T1000 negatives well above his own. He's being matched dollar for dollar so his "success" is going to be very limited and very, very expensive. I wouldn't count on a let up any time soon.

GMax

Well that is not happening in my opinion, why else would Ginsberg be blathering on about a sharply divided court, instead of cooing about majority affirmation? Still there is no good answer for the incompetent one, it will cause the formation of a mob that will swarm the polls and throw out Democrats everywhere. As Double Douche would say a win win!

derwill

I agree, rse. It opens yet another door down the road toward a tyrannical government. The left is okay with this because they assume the tyrant will be one of their own.

GMax

Jim have not seen it so cant be specific. But Opinion Dynamics is a horrible pollster, exceeded in incompetence only by the University pollsters. Relax, Zero is lighting a cigar, and the make appears to be ACME.

Jack is Back!

Stop torturing yourselves. It is what it is.

Upheld or overturned there is nothing any of us can do about it. So stop and have a drink even one without alcohol if it will make you stop worrying about something you have no, zilch, nil control over.

I think the best thing that can happen to our "interests" is for it to be upheld. That will NOT help Obama politically at all. It will keep the progs home and reinvigorate the Tea Party beyond where it is (which is status quo).

My hope is that they overturn the mandate and leave the rest for Congress to figure out. The problem is that the insurance industry will only raise rates for all the other s**t part of it.

Chubby

I'm glad to see that the Romney team is fighting back against the WaPo for publishing false facts about Bain. More please, that sort of corrective that is much needed. Did Bush ever fight back against the media lies about him?

narciso

The crosstabs aren't listed, but the Jan 08,
had a 51/33 advantage, for Obama, that seems dodgy.

GMax

+ 18? Dodgy? Some brits I used to know said "midgy". Narc you have taken understatement to an art form! Zero won by 6.

silly, ridiculous, outrageous. Take your pick.

narciso

I don't know that one, but that tells you all you need to know about Opinion Dynamics

Rick Ballard

Jim Rhoads,

I believe that's just this story babbling about the NBC/WSJ and Quinnipiac marvels of sample manipulation.

When you see a statewide poll that looks unusual, check the Cook PVI (Partisan Voting Index) against the sample skew. The Ohio PVI is R+1, Pennsylvania is D+2 and Florida is R+2. When you see D+6 skews, the poll results must be taken with a small salt mine.

Ignatz

--June 27 is the birthday for beautiful ladies. (It is also my wife's birthday.)--

I know what you meant by that DGS, and it was very sweet, but I'm not sure it was ideally worded. It's kind of in the 'that's no lady that's my wife' vein.

We know you meant your beautiful wife was born today some small number of years ago. Happy birthday Mrs. DGS!

Captain Hate

Did Bush ever fight back against the media lies about him?

Not that I remember and I hold Rove at least partially responsible for that. GWB wasn't comfortable doing battle with those jackals but that was part of the job and he owed it to the office of the President to smack them around when they were off base, which was almost always. Somebody @ AoS (Miss80sbaby iirc) once told me that Karen Allen stayed on his ass during the first term to make sure he got his points across regarding Iraq, and after she left it all fell apart.

rse

Gmax--I live in a fairly ugly world these days in terms of tyrannical aspirations. It would be nice to know there are limits.

The aspirations themselves are almost beyond the realm of the fathomable. Except we have been here before throughout history.

These are the aspirations and inclinations that magic document was designed to provide a barrier for.

I am particularly frustrated at the moment because I have had an offline can you prove it exchange that is just the facade of what I can prove.

People don't want the ugliness to be true. They want to believe others will treat them well. They forget how desperate and venal mediocrity makes people once they taste any power. Especially if backed up with the government's power to tax and coerce.

narciso

NBC cooks their sample, in a big gumbo pot, and lets it sit,

matt

I can see the signs in PA: "Bitter Clingers for Obama"

Captain Hate

Make that Karen Hughes

mikey

Fox Poll is an adult poll

Gus

Obama has already told the AMERICAN PEOPLE that he will NOT enforce laws he doesn't agree with. Defense of Marriage and Illegal Immigration, being 2 of them.

Why should any Republican President not do likewise.
Why should Congress FUND anything that an Imperial Asshole like Obama wants.

pagar

Maybe the new Congress will look a little different.

http://connect.freedomworks.org/node/273429?source=twitter

Tea Party Claims Another GOP Incumbent

Captain Hate

Rick, I don't doubt that Team BOzo is spending money like he has the last 3.5 years.

Jane

If the pins and needles sting tonite, imagine what they will feel like in November. By this time then I'll probably have a quart of Tito's in me just to make it through.

At least we know Holder will be held in contempt and that will certainly make my day unless the SC ruins it.

narciso

No, it's not, and it isn't even one in the general sense of things


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/06/27/poll-voters-say-neither-candidate-has-plan-for-economy/

narciso

On second thought, Captain. maybe they needed Marion Ravenwood in that job, she was also in Animal House.

Ignatz

--Make that Karen Hughes--

Whew. I was trying to remember Rove or W in Animal House or Raiders and kept coming up empty.

Rick Ballard

"Fox Poll is an adult poll"

No. Their current last polling on June 5th was an RV with an LV inside. The RV was reported as a tie at 43-43 and the pushed LV was 50-42 Romney with a "next week" LV of 45-44 Obama.

I cannot discern the sample skew from the information and would therefore rate the poll as useless. They're not using Opinion Dynamics for this year's news manipulation, they've gone to a R/D JV of two firms to do their fairly unbalanced work.

Captain Hate

I must have had her on my mind because "Starman" was on a couple weeks ago on a Friday evening on CBS when evidently the local station lost the national feed to the regular shows. Wow Jeff Bridges was young in that.

maryrose

I don't care what these polls say, Obama is not taking Ohio.We have Amish people that will not vote for him and conservative southern cities and snall towns that are very Republican. Cuyahoga County in inner city Cleveland will go his way but the Burbs and eco-burbs are Romney's. One or two cities in Ohio will not determine the election. I agree with Ch . Too many commercials and Obama's are really bad.

centralcal

I wonder why we are all more stressed about tomorrow, than we were on Monday? Is it because we are sure that the opinion comes Thursday?

I am surprised (read it somewhere an hour or so ago) that only 65 or so Dem congresscritters signed the letter to Issa protesting the contempt vote. I will be interested to see how many D's vote for contempt tomorrow.

narciso

Because Monday, the Court showed the fecklessness we have come to expect from them,
the less notable of decisions, involved 250
new sentences for juveniles,

(Another) Barbara

If the pins and needles sting tonite, imagine what they will feel like in November.

Tomorrow is at least as important as November, in my opinion, Jane. The upholding of Obamacare will have a far more pernicious long-term effect on our freedoms than another bad result in a presidential election.

And of course the two events are related. If the ACA is upheld, Obama will almost certainly be relected. If struck down, our side's chances improve greatly and it will be a close one where Romney may prevail.

Yes, I know I'm alone here in thinking that, but that's okay. Time will reveal all (dammit!)

GMax

Ohio demographics 13% black. East Ohio, usually reliably Democrat and coal country is most likely lost to Democrats. Where can they make it up, from the 13% who already voted 95% for Zero? Cmon.

GMax

Ohio went Democrat by 51.2% in 2008. Remember the erosion of 6- 8% elsewhere. Think it has not happened in Ohio? Seriously?

Gus

Centralcal, how many members of the Black Caucus????

Captain Hate

I agree with everything maryrose said. Besides when she agreed with me.

Rick Ballard

Jeez...

OK - The newest current polling (6/27) by Fox is RV with 41D, 36R,19I skew and gives Obama the edge at 45-40 with Romney having the edge 49-44 on pushed LVs reversing to 46-43 Obama on "next week" LVs. The poll has a modicum of utility due to the provision of the skew info and the results are within the MoE of the June 5th poll. Obama's Approve/Disapprove numbers did not move a millimeter (statistically) between June 5th and June 27th.

That's sort of interesting but we'd have to know the skew from June 5th for it to have meaning.

Danube of Thought

Happy birthday, Janet.

Been under the weather all day, and unable to catch up on this thread. Let me interpose a nightmare scenario for tomorrow:

--perhaps five separate opinions, no majority.

--several cross-concurrences-in-part and dissents-in-part.

--lots of argument in the ensuing 24 hours about what has and has not been struck down.

--Kennedy concluding that the government has indeed met its enormous burden in this case, but doing so in such a way that the Wolverine's children will be arguing about whether various future federal exercises in police power do or do not meet that burden.

Then, looking a bit further down the road, in the coming weeks we see Holder held in contempt, the disputed documents produced, and there being nothing in them.

Ignatz

--I wonder why we are all more stressed about tomorrow, than we were on Monday?--

I'm not.

GMax

What me worry? Not a chance, Spartans are stoic.

sailor

Well, DoT, you sound awfully pessimistic which I might? attribute to your recent operation. And, also GMax, the eternal optimist, also sounds pessimistic. Woe is me!

Rocco

I am surprised (read it somewhere an hour or so ago) that only 65 or so Dem congresscritters signed the letter to Issa protesting the contempt vote. I will be interested to see how many D's vote for contempt tomorrow.

I think the NRA has a lot to do with that.

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/06/27/pressure-on-house-dems-as-nra-to-score-holder-contempt-vote/

Happy Birthday to Janet and Mrs DGS

GMax

?????

Sailor = guy in Lil Abner with the cloud over his head.

centralcal

Gus, I honestly don't know the number in the Black Caucus, but you are probably on to something (they being the only ones who signed the Issa letter?). They are planning to walk out during the vote tomorrow. So mature of them. eyeroll

narciso

The Pin head Troika's puzzle box, needs to be imploded, now Thomas might do it, maybe even Scalia, you would think Alito would be raring
to do it.

Rick Ballard

"They are planning to walk out during the vote tomorrow."

They're heading for the Tilted Kilt. That worked so well in Wisconsin they decided a replay was in order.

GMax

Think the Holder vote is not a nuclear bomb dropped on the Dumbocrats? Get a load of this. Can we get them to carry the oversized gavel of Queen Pelosi when they stomp out of a bipartisan vote? LOL

The Congressional Black Caucus has called a members-only "emergency" meeting on Thursday to plot a "walkout strategy" ahead of the scheduled contempt vote of Attorney General Eric Holder later in the day.

The plans, detailed in an email from the executive director of the Congressional Black Caucus obtained by the Alley, include circulating a letter disapproving of the vote and having lawmakers walk out of the Capitol to hold a press conference during the roll call.

daddy

"Can't think of many things more annoying than a lefty lawyer. In fact I'm not sure I can come up with any;
Mosquitoes on the tundra?"

Tough call, but personally I'd rather have to deal with Bloodsucking mosquitoes driving Anchorage buggy than Lefty Lawyers.

BTW, Excellent relink on Insty last night of an old Chaco story going after Jonathan Turley. That fit in well with the fireworks over at the Althouse/Turley "Bullshit-fest."

narciso

I think Turley had a mindmeld with Zoisberg, when he was last at Area 51

Why would they put fighters that far north, instead of Elmendorf

http://www.adn.com/2012/06/26/2521075/military-puts-fairbanks-f-16-transfer.html

GMax

It is surely a sign of something close to panic that Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee head Steve Israel is publicly advising Democrats to stay home from President Obama’s nominating convention this year:

The man responsible for getting Democrats elected to the Congress this fall has a message for his party’s candidates: Stay away from the Democratic National Convention in September.

“If they want to win an election, they need to be in their districts,” New York Congressman Steve Israel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told the Reuters Washington Summit on Tuesday.

Who would have guessed the clear favorite for “least convincing political spin of the year” would go to someone other than Jay Carney or Debbie Wasserman Schultz? Not a single person will buy this spin, for two reasons: First, even if the Democrats expected another wave election in favor of the GOP, the very candidates most susceptible to that wave–less experienced members of the House–would benefit most by appearing at the convention, as it would raise their profile. And second, the announcement from Israel came after Democratic politicians began heading for the lifeboats.

This is the lamest spin I think I have seen out out a political consultant...

centralcal

It is so nice to see the left is tense too - from Politico (via ACE):

Our Supreme Court has lost its honor

By: Roger Simon
June 27, 2012 03:55 PM EDT

Once upon a time, in a place called America, there was a government with three equal branches. That America no longer exists.

One branch now rules American life.

It is the Supreme Court, and it consists of nine people elected by nobody. They rule for life. Their power is absolute.

pagar

"Obama will almost certainly be relected"

Only if we fail to get the word out. How many of the long term unemployed who have just lost their unemployment checks think that pouring money into Kenya instead of trying to help the unemployed Americans makes sense?

http://moonbattery.com/?p=13382

More paper-pushers are needed even to list all the different ways Obama spreads our wealth around to the dreamy land of his communist father.
-------------------------------------------
Here's Obama's friend the union bigwigs preventing their members from earning raises.

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/06/27/morning-bell-how-unions-just-shot-workers-in-the-foot/

We need to get a lot of this kind of info out to ordinary Americans.

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