White Noise?

This Public Policy Polling result from North Carolina has people buzzing:

One caveat with Romney's lead on this poll is that it finds Obama winning the black vote by only a 76/20 margin. That seems like an unrealistically low share of African American voters for Obama.

Obama led by 87/11 in the May polling, which took place from May 10 to 13. That was immediately after the North Carolina vote opposing gay marriage and Obama's subsequent endorsement of same. May 13 was a Sunday, but most May respondents would not have sat through a Sunday sermon listening to their minister inveigh against Obama.

The sample is small - 810 people for the June survey, with 22% black, which would be 178 people.  If Obama's "true" support among blacks was 90%, the standard error for that size sample would be (approximately!) 2.2%, so a result of 76% is statistically significant.

That said, the way peeved people poll in June will probably be different from the way they vote in November. This current poll is more likely to be a harbinger of reduced black turnout than a dramatically reduced percentage for Obama.

Comments

[peter]

sorry to go OT so quickly, but what about daddy and basketball? couldn't follow entire thread discussion.

[Captain Hate]

I thought this was a thread for the trolls

[Rick Ballard]

"This current poll is more likely to be a harbinger of reduced black turnout than a dramatically reduced percentage for Obama."

True (depending on the definition of dramatically). OTOH - the Tea Party turnout in suburban Wisconsin, if repeated nationally, coupled with a 20% participation drop among blacks will return a dramatic change in result. (Dramatic in this instance referring to a change in address for the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.)

[marlene]

BB Key asked on the other thread about Maine's 1st CD razor thin win by Jon Courtney.I don't think there will be a recount.cboldt might know. OT,sorry!

[Dave (in MA)]

Breaking news: CNN cancels John King's show

In other breaking news, apparently John King had a show.

[centralcal]

Ha Ha, Dave! Whoopee 3 hours of Wolf Blitzer - yeah that ought to raise their dismal ratings.

[Janet]

sorry to go OT so quickly, but what about daddy and basketball?

Same for me.

[centralcal]

Didn't some soccer ball (not a basketball) from the tsunami wash up in Alaska and daddy recommended it for a great FedEx commercial - which was accepted, only daddy didn't get to star in it?

[centralcal]

oops, I left out the part about returning the ball to Japan, its point of origin.

[Strawman Cometh]

IIRC the zer0 was down on with da gay marriage prior to the NC marriage vote.

[Danube of Thought]

Great one, Dave.

[Jane]

Huge drama in Sturbridge today. A 300 lb bear was about 20 feet up in a tree next to the PO. The entire town stopped to see the drama play out. The fire department tranquilized the cute guy and then held a net waiting for him to fall. Something must have gotten their attention because when he fell, he fell straight to the ground. Kaboom! They administered first aid and then people who have never seen a bear before declared he was okay.

I had to leave at that point, and make my way thru the hundreds of people gathered for the sighting,on this big day for this small town.

Daddy, can you tell me the basketball story before you tell me that you dance with the bears on a daily basis.

[peter]

Jane, is that the same bear that was in Darien? because he is really getting around.

[Jane]

I dunno, what is the Darien bear's name peter?

[Ignatz]

--Huge drama in Sturbridge today.--

Similar to the the two mountain lions treed in adjoining fir trees in my grandpa's old house's front-yard a few years back, attracted by the tenants fat, tasty sheep.
The deputies shot em out of the trees alright....but they didn't use tranquilizers.

[NK]

The Ct. Bear was in Greenwich....

Last year a momma black bear was tranquilized by State Cops in Avon Ct, but not before schlaging and elderly deaf dog. We wimps in Ct/Mass who don't own guns are giving back the land to wildlife.

[centralcal]

Jane, et al asking about daddy and soccer ball - here is a link to his first mention of the idea of doing a commercial.

Later he told us the company loved his idea, but alas he wouldn't get to star in the commercial - bummer.

[NK]

Congrats Daddy--

[Jane]

CC,

What time is the post? I swear I am losing my mind.

[Jane]

Here is the post - it was 2 pages before where the link went to. Firefox may just go to the last page (except when I want to go to the last page):

---Shades of "Wilson" the Soccerball update.

ADN previously reported that a Japanese Soccerball that was swept away by the Japanese Tsunami and floated across the ocean, had been found on Middleton Island, Alaska.

Now the paper reports that writing on the ball has identified the owner back in Japan, and that he has been contacted and the folks who found it are going to send it back to 16-year-old Misaki Murakami of Rikuzentakata, Japan.

I E-mailed a company I know to see if they might want to ship the Soccer ball back free and possibly get a bit of photos and publicity ala "Wilson" from the movie Castaway. Will let you know if anything comes of it.

Ball that drifted to Alaska after Japan tsunami is going home.

Congrats Daddy! You rock!

[Ignatz]

--What time is the post? I swear I am losing my mind.--

Yeah, I didn't see it either but I did see this generous offer from Beasts of England below that I previously missed;

Ignatz@11:51 - sent the photos to my brother (who is the designated aficionado for the family) and he was, too, grateful to receive them. He was also extremely impressed by the beauty and craftsmanship of the stock. Thanks, again!

p.s. maybe I need to send you some photos of the perfectly-assed young lady, in exchange...

Posted by: Beasts of England | April 25, 2012 at 05:47 PM

Be my guest, Beasts. My email is flipper95665 at hotmail.com if you you'd prefer not posting them here. :)

[Ignatz]

Thanks Jane and cc.

[Dave (in MA)]

http://www.adn.com/2012/06/13/2503189/alaskans-return-japanese-basketball.html

[Manuel Transmission]

I posted on the previous thread that I heard about the basketball (not soccer ball) being returned by FedEx. I assumed that was daddy's ball, but who knows, maybe there are dozens now.

[Ignatz]

--I assumed that was daddy's ball, but who knows, maybe there are dozens now.--

Is there a medical term for that condition?
Must be.

[Neo]

“At some point, it’s hard to spin your way out of a trash heap,” said Drew Westen, an Emory University clinical psychologist who studies the role of messaging and emotion in politics.

Obama’s “fundamental error,” Westen said, was not blaming former President George W. Bush and conservative lawmakers early enough and often enough in his term for creating the country’s economic troubles before he got into office.

“It’s too late to make that argument now,” said Westen, who has consulted with House and Senate Democrats on messaging on health care and energy issues. “It just sounds like sour grapes. Whether it’s true or not, it sounds like sour grapes.”

[Neo]

In an economic speech on Thursday that could set the tone for months of campaigning, Obama is not likely to unveil new ideas to boost the economy and create new jobs, according to Democrats familiar with the preparations for the address.
Instead, he will make the case that he needs four more years to undo the damage left by George W. Bush, his Republican predecessor in the White House, and argue that a President Romney would bring back the weak financial regulation and budget-busting tax cuts of the Bush years.

Yeah. Roll out the "sour grapes"

[Dave (in MA)]

Ah. That makes sense. The whole reason we're in a mess is that the BlameBush guy wasn't sufficiently blamey out of the gate.

[lyle]

Obama’s “fundamental error,” Westen said, was not blaming former President George W. Bush and conservative lawmakers early enough and often enough in his term

Does this sooper smart professor know that "conservative lawmakers" controlled virtually nothing in congress until '10, two years after Zero's immaculation? I'll bet he does which makes him nothing more than a hack.

[narciso]

It makes sense, from their corner of bizarroville,

[Clarice]

Golly, hard to see why the campaign didn't take the advice of that genius psychologist at Emory. Have you know taken most of the credentialed morons in the country and locked them up in universities instead of mental institutions? That's what it's starting to look like to me.

Jane, that would be a cute children's book: Biddy Bear visits Sturbridge..

[lyle]

budget-busting tax cuts of the Bush years

Does this genius perfessor know what Bush's final budget deficit was? Hint, in case he's utterly innumerate: It was when we measured deficits in hundreds of billions not thousands of billions.

[Clarice]

*Have WE NOW taken...*

[Porchlight]

This current poll is more likely to be a harbinger of reduced black turnout than a dramatically reduced percentage for Obama.

Probably so. But reduced black turnout is a big f'n deal.

Remember, big turnout among blacks and young voters was fully 40% of Obama's 2008 margin of victory. He has to have that turnout (or its equivalent) to offset big losses in other voter groups.

[centralcal]

Sorry Jane, was away from the computer for awhile. Sorry too that the link didn't take you straight to the comment. Rats. I see you found it anyway.

Soccer ball, basketball - who knows - it was a ball of some sort. Look forward to hearing from daddy, as I am sure the story will be entertaining as usual.

[Porchlight]

And also to point out the obvious...black voters are his absolute most loyal voter group. If he's seeing this kind of drop with them, what kind of drop is he seeing with less loyal groups?

His internals must be just brutal. That's why we're getting a new economic speech next week with no new ideas in it. Brilliant move Barry.

[Clarice]

Fox reporting prosecution wont retry John edwards...

[Clarice]

Taranto BOTw is also cautious about the PPP poll but he observes that the various Dem blocs have no natural affinity for each other but all want more something from govt and work together when govt is small and there's room for expansion and there's money to be had. when we're out of money and sick of govt, they may well be at each other's throats.

BTW someone said of the AFL-CIO not contributing to Dems, they're taking the money they don't now have and going home. HEH

[narciso]

It's in the Times, and hence it carries great authority, snorfle among the likes of Joe Klein,

[narciso]

did I say authority, I meant agita.

[narciso]

This is what I mean,

http://swampland.time.com/2011/08/07/lame-obama/

[Caro]

There is a bear story here on Cape Cod, too. I wonder if it is a sign.
Lun

[Porchlight]

Obama’s “fundamental error,” Westen said, was not blaming former President George W. Bush and conservative lawmakers early enough and often enough in his term

Aside from how absolutely pathetic this is - not blaming others early and often enough is a "fundamental" mistake...

...I must have missed something. He blamed Bush and Republicans for something every single week right out of the gate.

Should it have been every day?

[Porchlight]

narciso,

Joke Line says it's all about the narrative. Obama is a great guy, he's made the right choices, but he hasn't been good at telling a story, at delineating the bad guys from the good guys.

Could they really be this dumb? I know this is what they always say. But it reads like parody.

[bgates]

Obama’s “fundamental error,” Westen said, was not blaming former President George W. Bush and conservative lawmakers early enough and often enough in his term

Westen added that Obama had made other serious mistakes, including completely eschewing the nation's interests in sports and entertainment in favor of in-depth wonkish studies of the constitutionality of various bills, steadfastly refusing to make an issue of his own race, and launching an unprovoked nuclear assault on New Zealand.

A follow up investigation has revealed that neither New Zealand's ambassador to the United States nor a spokesman for the US Air Force was aware of any reason to believe the island nation had been destroyed by a thermonuclear blast. When we attempted to reach Professor Westen for clarification, his department secretary informed us that he had "had a very bad day" related to the movement of his parking space to the far side of the lot, but he had "gone home for a mint julep and a nice nap, and should be feeling much better tomorrow."

This has been a Muppet News Flash.

[Clarice]

HeH, bgates.

[Captain Hate]

Could they really be this dumb? I know this is what they always say. But it reads like parody.

Joke Line, a giant in his field, has made too many dumbass statements in the recent past to get the benefit of the doubt.

[pagar]

"to offset big losses in other voter groups."

http://weaselzippers.us/2012/06/13/poll-obamas-approval-rating-in-muslim-world-nosedives/

[centralcal]

According to Twitter right now, HBO show Game of Thrones used the decapitated head of GW Bush in one of their heads on pikes scenes.

Hope they get a lot of HBO cancellations.

[lyle]

This has been a Muppet News Flash.

Or "bazinga," if you prefer.

[lyle]

Hope they get a lot of HBO cancellations.

I sure as hell will. Wait, I've never had HBO in my entire life.

[centralcal]

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

Internet Trolls really are horribly ugly and look just like you thought a troll would look.

(Kinda like one Dana G. Ward of Pissypants College)

[centralcal]

Me, too, lyle. Never had it, never will.

[centralcal]

Beheaded George W. Bush. Typical of HBO!

[Porchlight]

Wow, that is just sick.

[lyle]

I can just picture all the chortling and backslapping going on between the juveniles in the production crew at HBO on this movie. Stay classy, imbeciles.

[jimmyk]

Internet Trolls really are horribly ugly and look just like you thought a troll would look.

And, from the same link, conservative women are, if I may say, hot!

[lyle]

Stay classy, troll @ 5:39

[Neo]

ran, with 16 separate CDM projects, brings in around 4.8 million CERs, worth about $26 million, every year, despite numerous U.N. sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

Uzbekistan, dominated for the last two decades by the autocratic Islam Karimov, hosts 20 different CDM projects, with a combined annual value of over 7.5 million CERs, or roughly $40 million.

Sudan, whose president Omar Hassan al-Bashir came to power via military coup over 20 years ago and is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes in Darfur, is on the receiving end of two different CDM projects, with a combined annual value of over 180,000 CERs, or almost $1 million.

North Korea is hosting seven hydroelectric dams, which may generate over $1 million in CERs annually.

[Neo]

There comes a point where Obama’s whining about George Bush will make people realize that perhaps they should elect a Republican so at least there will be a valid reason to blame them for the country’s ills.

Given that George Bush can’t run by constitutional mandate, it will be Romney who will get the nod.

[peter]

I dunno, what is the Darien bear's name peter?

There's a punchline in there somewhere, but I don't quite know what it is.

[Extraneus]

Obama should change his logo to that pic of Bush's head on a pike. People would love it! (These same people should actually be dead, but who am I to say?) Surely the average voter would respond.

[Ignatz]

--There's a punchline in there somewhere, but I don't quite know what it is.--

I thought the whole thing was the punchline, and a pretty funny one.

[Danube of Thought]

Excellent 2012 analysis by Michael Barone. This guy is toast.

[pagar]

Neo,@06:16-good link.

IMO, the US could put a stop to that criminal scam in a few minutes by announcing that no more money would be paid to the UN. Who else is going to finance such garbage? Borrowing money from whoever we are borrowing it from today to give to the UN is criminal and should be against the law.

[Sara]

I accidently posted this in the wrong post, so forgive the duplication, but it is just so eyerolling and mindboggling:

I just saw this on one of the FB Romney groups and I can see that I need to catch up big time.

Joseph W. Beverly posts: Oh, the Irony, It Burns: Obama Campaign Rips Romney For Failure to Release Records

The official public relations journal of the Democrat National Committee (sometimes referred to as The New York Times) offers this hilarious insight into Leftist logic:

A spokesman for President Obama‘s re-election campaign blasted Mr. Romney and questioned whether he had something to hide in his finances.

“Why does Governor Romney feel like he can play by a different set of rules?” said Ben LaBolt, a spokesman for the Obama campaign. “What is it that he doesn’t want the American people to see? Governor Romney, who has favored secrecy over openness time after time, should live up to the same standard of disclosure his father and others set.”

Meanwhile, seven years after Barack Obama burst onto the national political scene, we still await the disclosure of his background records.

[Sara]

Loveliness:

[Jane]

I think I want a bear.

[GMax]

Excellent 2012 analysis by Michael Barone. This guy is toast.

Holy cow! If I did not know better I would say that was a pretty optimistic posting coming from you, are you feeling ok?

[centralcal]

heh, GMax!

[Ignatz]

Criminy, Joy would have given this guy;

a run for his money in the ugliest dog in the world contest.

[centralcal]

Actually, it is easier to look at the dog, than that large photo of Joy.

[Sara]

Iggy, this is for you:

[Ignatz]

That's pretty cool Sara. You'd be surprised at the things I've found in the middle of trees.

[Chubby]

((IMO, the US could put a stop to that criminal scam in a few minutes by announcing that no more money would be paid to the UN.))

did you read the story today about the State Dept. going to pay megabucks to Russia to buy Russian made helicopters to upgrade the Afghani air force?

[Danube of Thought]

Against whom did he go to war, and in whose army?

[Chubby]

I always find the "ugly dog" pictures disturbing, as it looks to me like some unnatural and probably cruel manipulation has gone on to produce the effects.

[Ignatz]

--I always find the "ugly dog" pictures disturbing, as it looks to me like some unnatural and probably cruel manipulation has gone on to produce the effects.--

It's usually just that hideous Chinese hairless breed. In the case of the one pictured he was just old so his teeth had gone bad and he had cataracts, otherwise I think that's pretty much the way he came into the world, just like his unfortunate soulmate Joy. Sam has since gone on to that great Milk Bone in the sky, undefeated I believe as World's Ugliest Dog.

[Danube of Thought]

Snopes.com:

"Although text is commonly associated with pictures of the tree claiming that the bicycle was left chained to it by a boy who went off to war in 1914, the bike is not nearly that old, nor was it left behind by a young man setting off to take part in World War I. According to the Vashon-Maury Island Beachcomber, the bicycle was left behind in the mid-1950s by a local resident who simply abandoned it:

"Tales abound explaining how a red bicycle came to be lodged in a Vashon tree a dozen feet up

"Some say it ended up there by chance, while others contend in was intentional cleverness. One former Islander, Berkeley Breathed, even wrote a children's book about the mystery.

"But one longtime Island family had laid a solid claim to the bicycle in a tree just north of Sound Food. Two generations concur that the bicycle belonged to Don Puz, who in 1954 left his bicycle in the woods, forgot about it and never went back looking for it.

"Don received the bicycle as a donation after the family home burnt down, he said.

"The bicycle wasn't his favorite — it had hard, solid rubber tires 'and skinny little handlebars like a tricycle,' he said. 'I was too big a kid to ride it.'

"As his mother Helen Puz tells the story, Don and his friends were playing in the woods together, and Don was the only child who had ridden his bicycle there. When the boys left, Don left his bike behind, walking home with the other boys.

"'Apparently, he wasn't too excited about that bike,' she said.

"After the bike was discovered, making headlines, both mother and son paid it a visit.

"'We went down there in the woods, and there was this bike in the tree, and I said, 'That's my bike,'' Don recalled. "' recognized it immediately. When I saw that bike, I recognized it, because I don't think I've ever seen another one like it.'

"Don Puz said nothing about leaving his bicycle chained to a tree, so given the current position of the bike within the tree, most likely one or more persons had a hand in moving it after Don abandoned it back in 1954. "

[Rick Ballard]

DoT,

Theo raised a decent objection to Barone's analysis a few weeks ago when I mentioned the alignment with the previous election. Clinton managed victory in '96 after the '94 GOP wipeout. I believe the rebuttal to Theo's objection lies with Clinton's political flexibility in response to the Dem losses coupled with GDP growth of 7.1% in Q2/96 followed by 3.5% and 4.4%.

Obama is inflexible (Clinton had made his shift far before this point in '96) and the economy isn't cooperating at all.

Barone's use of the RCP averages significantly understates Obama's weakness because of the inclusion of RV results. Straight LV polling would run 2-3% below the RV polls.

[Sara]

I thought that bike looked too modern to be 1914. (Hey I watch "American Pickers.") Still, whatever the story, it doesn't really matter, does it? The pic is still very cool.

[Chubby]

thank you for that information Ignatz.

[Sara]

Okey doke

[pagar]

"State Dept. going to pay megabucks to Russia"

Chubby, I had not seen that, but it does not surprise me. IMO, the US seems to have gone berserk. Buying Airplanes from Brazil, helo's from Russia, etc, etc. It's like we have to throw money away.

This goes back to Neo's link, but look at these numbers.

"Straight UN Facts'

"US contributions to UN Regular Budget"

"The United States has the maximum assessed contribution to the UN regular budget -- 22%. In 2010 the assessed amount is $650,693,000. The minimum assessed contribution is 0.001%. The scale of assessments for each UN member for the required contributions to the regular budget is determined every 3 years on the basis of Gross National Product (GNP)."

"Only nine countries (starting with the largest contributor: United States, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada, Spain, China) contribute 75% of the entire regular budget."

Look at those 9 contributors and see how many you think have funds enough to make their current contributions?

http://www.eyeontheun.org/facts.asp?pl=3&p=230

[Rick Ballard]

Pagar,

Italy is a little cramped at the moment due to borrowing $21 billion at 6% to make a 3% loan to Spain to keep EUtopia running.

[Chubby]

Pagar,

FYI, here is the link to the story LUN, h/t Drudge

snip: ((The United States plans to buy 21 Mi-17 helicopters for the Afghan military from Russia's Rosoboronexport by 2016. The contract totals $375 million by 2016, with an option to buy additional aircraft worth $550 million.))

[pagar]

Thanks, Chubby.

Rick B, I think it is all the European countries. IMO none of them have a clue what they are doing.

"Fears rise over EU handling of debt crisis"

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f29cdbf4-b4a8-11e1-aa06-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1xj2iCANe

[narciso]

Abandon all hope,

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/06/allahu-akbar-pakistani-cleric-launches-jihad-against-polio-vaccinations/

[pagar]

Rick B, My guess is that Spain will need more help than that Italy loan.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/these-three-spanish-banks-will-be-downgraded-tomorrow

Things look bad!

[Rick Ballard]

"Things look bad!"

Nonsense. EUtopia is doing fine. It will be 50-100 hours before things actually look bad.

[narciso]

The proper response,

http://dailycaller.com/2012/06/13/times-klein-calls-krauthammer-a-smug-reflexive-hack-krauthammer-joe-who/#ixzz1xj79rBk0

[Danube of Thought]

"Clinton managed victory in '96 after the '94 GOP wipeout."

True, RickB, but recall that he couldn't muster 50% of the popular vote (Perot and other assorted nuts). I don't know how his 49% in 1996 compares with the party vote in 1994, but will look into it tomorrow if I can.

[Danube of Thought]

In 1994 the GOP got 51.4% of the vote in the congressional elections. In 1996 Clinton was still unable to get 50%.

[narciso]

I was just about to mention that;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1994