Powered by TypePad

« Romney In Poland | Main | Here Stay Da Judge »

August 01, 2012

Comments

MarkO

Doom?

hit and run

Unpossible.

Duda's source already confirmed it would be Pawlenty.

sailor

I hope not. Not that I don't like Portman, but----

Janet

I don't care who Romney picks. I'm voting Republican no matter what. How anyone could vote for a Democrat is beyond me.

Captain Hate

Allen West would produce a cascade of exploding heads; all of them of the right kind.

Melinda Romanoff

Outside the box, but how about Sowell?

Jim,MtnView,Ca,USA

Congrats Ted Cruz and the other TX RINO slayers.

Ignatz

--Outside the box, but how about Sowell?--

Is there a number less than zero to describe the chance Sowell would accept?

That's her name.

Jan Brewer.
======

Charlie (Colorado)

Is there a number less than zero to describe the chance Sowell would accept?

Lots.

Melinda Romanoff

Chaco?

Appalled

Portman is not a bad choice, though Ryan is a better one, since the affordability of government is part and parcel of the econoomic issues Romney is running on. The last time Jindal (touted by Douthat) hit the national stage, I remember him flopping badly. Plus, the media would love to play the Exorcism card. From their standpoint, it beats having to play the Mormon card....

narciso

Our fishwrap doesn't dissapoint, meaning it does;


http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/08/q-poll-fl-obama-51-romney-45-nelson-47-mack-40.html

Rick Ballard

Doom?

Doubtful. The selection of Portman would have no impact on the campaign Obama is running against himself. Adding the gay marriage plank to the Dem platform is of greater electoral import. That one goes right next to his ebonic speech regarding earning success.

ABO is still ABO.

hrtshpdbox

I think the "safe" choices have been winnowed down to Portman and Thune (though neither is a governor, which is supposedly the pinnacle of safeness). And the conventional wisdom is that if Romney doesn't feel he needs a game-changer, he'll go with the safe choices. Romney seems confident enough, so I'll guess it's Portman or Thune.

NK

Portman-- Meh-- doesn't help, doesn't hurt. The only precondition is that the VP pick be experienced and competent so they can't be a 'squirel' that the media tries to use as a distraction from this ABO/economy election. I love Allen West's passion, love of country and courage. I don't think he should be the VP pick, but Romney should use him as a campaigner, convention speaker and announce he'll be an important part in the Romney admin.

GMAX

BTW the margin of victory kept growing last evening. The final tally was a Cruz blowout 57% to 43%.

And the total Republican votes cast in the runoff? 1.1 MM And the total Democrat votes cast under 250K. Those of you challenged by math, that is 4.4 to 1. Worse than the 80% to 20% I mentioned last evening.

So if polls are giving no effect to voter intensity, at least stop and give pause to the possibility that the polls are very very very wrong and a tidal wave is coming.

Danube of Thought

Here's one for you: Larissa Latynina, the 77-year-old former Soviet gymnast who held the recod for Olympic medals with 18, wanted to present Michael Phelps with his 19th.

The IOC wouldn't let her.

GMAX

Dont listen to any Double Dumb spin on those numbers. Open seat, both parties have a runoff on the same day same polling places same sun in your eyes etc.

And we keep hearing that Texas is trending Democrat, dont we? The trend-line seems to be a little non supportive of the hypothesis this AM...

hrtshpdbox

...give pause to the possibility that the polls are very very very wrong and a tidal wave is coming.
That's why I look askance at the Wisconsin polls that currently show Obama with a 6-point RCP average advantage; I remember the goofy exit polls when Walker withstood recall.

hit and run

I think Beth Myers ends up picking herself.

Janet

New video testimonial series: “I’m A Proud Native American, And Elizabeth Warren Does Not Represent Me”

hrtshpdbox

I think Beth Myers ends up picking herself.
Or Harriet Miers.

Sue

I think Romney will go safe.

Danube of Thought

Minus 17 at Raz today.

Trails Romney by 3.

matt

Obama has been spending huge in Ohio according to this morning's reports. Portman might make sense as a favorite son and fiscal conservative.

Captain Hate

Calls to Laura Ingraham indicate lines outside the door in Chick-fil-As. I may have to show my support on another day.

narciso

In retrospect, as I was reminded by Beldar, Miers who defeated a leading prog academic,
in one of the minor Bv G decisions, was a better choice than Roberts.

PaulY

Obama played it safe by picking the dumb guy, Biden. Portman can work with Congress in fiscal mess.

Threadkiller

Lindsey Graham drives me crazy. He is on fire on Fox.

That will change...

NK

Matt-- good point about Ohio-- is Portman generally popular there does he excite Ohio conservatives?

Threadkiller

Since citizenship does not matter, maybe it will be Mike Myers.

hit and run

BTW, where's Jane?

Soylent Red

Boring Portman is worthwhile for the electoral votes (no Republican has ever, without Ohio!), but also from the standpoint of demonstrating competence.

I believe that last bit is what this election is going to be about: competence. Utility. We've had four years of the flashy Cherokendonesian loafers with the fashionable tassle. Now it's time to get a pair of dependable work boots that don't make our feet hurt.

BTW, I think McDonnell would make a good veep as well for the same reason. In fact, there is nothing that says that it has to be a politician. Maybe Romney's got someone from the business community with a record he could put to work. He definitely has the contacts to know those kind of people (no, not Trump) and vetting could happen with them way under the radar.

On the subject of vetting, I am of the opinion that the real vetting was done long ago, quietly and away from the eye of the MSM. The top picks were assembled before Mitt even started running, and probably ranked by strength, or locked into various situational rankings based on possible contingencies and ground truth polling data.

Romney's a pretty smart guy, with smart guys working for him. If he didn't watch the reaction of the Obama campaign to Palin and learn some lessons about how to plan and execute an ambush, I'd be very surprised.

Captain Hate

is Portman generally popular there does he excite Ohio conservatives?

Yes and no, although he's greatly preferable to the likes of Voinovich.

hit and run

Soylent:
In fact, there is nothing that says that it has to be a politician.

Hot Chick on a Bike

Danube of Thought

RIP Gore Vidal. One of the most vicious queens who ever walked the planet.

hrtshpdbox

Yep, Vidal extended his nastiness even to his own crowd, drawing unending ire for opposing same-sex marriage. I must admit to having enjoyed "Burr", though.

Soylent Red

Hit:

I'd vote for that.

I think Mr. Ballard correctly summarizes the root of the conclusion: ABO.

Jim Eagle

DoT,

....along with Harold Pinter.

Jim Eagle

How about our American women in the quarterfinals of Saber fencing. Two time defending gold medal winner, Mariel Zagunis goes in impressively 15-9 and Dagmara Wozniak goes in 15-13 in a close one. Both are attacking fencers with great footwork and strong blade work.

Unfortunately, the quarters will be on MSNBC if you can stomach making that click on the remote. Consolation is that Kelly Tilghman is the hostess.

Jim Eagle

Soylent,

Or this:)

jimmyk

Here's one for you: Larissa Latynina

DoT, I thought you were proposing her for VP, just to see TK's head explode.

Presumably if Romney goes safe with Portman, it will be because he sees himself ahead and likely to win. Otherwise he might want to take a chance.

Speaking of which, the NYT/Quinny poll claims Barry is up by 6 in FL and OH and 9 in PA. It appears the polls were +9 Dem in FL, +8 in OH, and +6 in PA (plus an oddly Dem-leaning set of Indys in PA). Funny how that works.

narciso

Aggressive denial of reality, he should have landed at Wright-Patterson or something;


http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/01/oops-wh-unaware-obamas-landing-at-ohio-base-he-wants-to-close/

hit and run

Hot Chick on a Bike is a specific candidate -- #10 on the link Soylent provided. And no one else.

narciso

The write up by the fishwrap supplier isn't too bad;


http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/08/01/159200/tea-party-favorite-wins-texas.html

NK

Kinda OT-- this is troubling (but for whom?)
today Holman Jenkins writes in the WSJ the exact thing I've been saying for months is Bam's/Axelplouffe's strategy. It was a bit terrifyiny reading my thoughts played out at WSJ Online. Like I said, troubling, but for whom, me or Jenkins. here's the link (hopefully not behind a firewall) http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444226904577560941016294050.html

boola boola


FLORIDA: Obama 51 - Romney 45
OHIO: Obama 50 - Romney 44
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53 - Romney 42

President Barack Obama hits the magic 50 percent mark against Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with wide support for his plan to hike federal income taxes on upper-income voters, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today.

This is the first measure of likely voters in these swing states and cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them - shows:

Florida: Obama edges Romney 51- 45 percent;
Ohio: Obama over Romney by a slim 50 - 44 percent;
Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 53 - 42 percent.
Support for President Obama's proposal to increase taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year is 58 - 37 percent in Florida, 60 - 37 percent in Ohio and 62 - 34 percent in Pennsylvania, the survey by Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times finds.

"If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and - if history is any guide - into a second term in the Oval Office," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally. Part of the reason may be that the unemployment rate in Ohio is well below the national average. In Florida it has been dropping over the past year, while nationally that has not been the case."

jimmyk

As indicated in my previous post, the Quinnipiac poll is heavily weighted to Democrats, seemingly ignoring the trends in voter enthusiasm between Ds and Rs. (I mistyped 9 rather than 11 for Obama's alleged margin in PA.)

NK

JimmyK-- thanks for the info about Quinnipiac ( a fine school and pollster for Ct., Mass. NYC, and Phila suburb elections-- other states? they have no reliable proprietary data.) But save your breath for the trolls they don't care nor can they understand your points about poll composition. They are lying slags-- just like 'Bam.

Jim Eagle

Mariel Zagunis advances to the medal round in Saber. impressively against the Chinese babe. Mariel is Trump's and Romney's favorite fencer, don't ya know!

There is no way in hell that Bambi wins Florida or that Nelson keeps his seat. Bet on it.

NK

Gore Vidal dead? When you have nothing good to say.....

Danube of Thought

All three of those polls assume that the turnout profile will be what it was in 2008. This is willful delusion.

narciso

This is the slop they serve us, down here, along with the latest slam against Carroll,

NK

JiB-- other than a ridiculously successful telephone negotiation I had this morning, you guarenteeing Florida for ABO is the best thing about today. So people -- Portman or McDonnell who's the better pick? which is the more important state?

Danube of Thought

"Now let’s take a look at the partisan breakdown (D/R/I) in the sample data for each state, and compare them to 2008 and 2010 exit polling:

"Florida: CBS/NYT 36/27/32, 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29
Ohio: CBS/NYT 35/27/32, 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28
Pennsylvania: CBS/NYT 38/32/26, 2008 44/37/18, 2010 40/37/23"

Close your eyes and imagine that turnout is as it was in 2010, rather than 2008.

Soylent Red

Hit:

HCoaB #10 is my Secretary of State. #16 is my Vice President.

Because of her gravitas.

hit and run

Well, speaking of Quinnipiac . . . and McDonnell:

Fifty-five percent of registered voters approve of the way Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) is handling his job, while 26 percent disapprove, according to a poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University. ... Among independent voters, 59 percent approve of McDonnell’s job performance, while 24 percent disapprove.
However...
More than seven in 10 independent voters, men and women, say that adding McDonnell to a national ticket would not affect their presidential choice — 8 percent are more likely to back Romney and 18 percent say it would push them toward President Obama.

hit and run

Soylent:
HCoaB #10 is my Secretary of State. #16 is my Vice President.

You'll have to take that up with Ignatz. He's been promoting #10 around here for a while now.

narciso

Another example of category error, from one of the usual suspects;

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2012-07-28/news/os-beth-kassab-tuscawilla-wall-dispute-072912-20120728_1_wall-tuscawilla-development-northern-way

Melinda Romanoff

hit-

When are the Senate confirmation hearings? I'd like to record them.

centralcal

Speaking of skewed polling, this is an easy to understand statistic of exactly how skewed:

jimgeraghty ‏@jimgeraghty
According to Quinnipiac, Florida has shifted from 34%GOP-31%DEM to 26%GOP-35% DEM in two months.

matt

Out here in "good government" California, the head of the most powerful SEIU local in the state until recently was indicted on federal tax evasion, racketering and sundry other charges.

According to the Times "He stood up for home care givers". If you recall it was this program for a bill was proposed to begin audits several years ago. The bill was, of course, shot down by the California legislature.

The program is rife with double dipping. Multiple relatives claim the same dependent in different counties. Since the counties are not linked, the opportunities and occasion of fraud are massive. But naw, no investigations....

In other news, apparently Tony Villar, aka Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, the world's most prominent Mexican phony, is on the short list for the Democratic nomination for President in 2016.

He ranks right up there with the telenovella star south of the border in the smarts department. LA and San Francisco are neck and neck in the race to stoopid this year.

But we will begin working on the high speed train to nowhere soon, so we got that going for us. LUN for the SEIU crook.

narciso

One of Pinette's interns, previously??
at New Majority, now Frum Forum, facepalms with many tentacles;

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/07/31/sarah-palin.html

Janet

#21 looks like the Dem candidate...she's part Cherokee...you can tell cause it looks like she's eaten a lot of Mexican Oatmeal Soup.

Danube of Thought

Sowell would begin his first term at age 82.

Rick Ballard

Soylent,

Good comment re studying reaction to the Palin pick. I doubt there will be an ABO pick which is any distance from the putrefying core of the oligarchy. I read Cheney's remarks re Palin in light of his probable knowledge Dewhurst was going to be hammered by Cruz. There is no way the oligarchy will support any candidates whose scent provides a contrast with putrefaction. It just wouldn't be prudent.

If elections were named, this one would be Twilight of the Zombies.

Rick Ballard

Soylent,

Good comment re studying reaction to the Palin pick. I doubt there will be an ABO pick which is any distance from the putrefying core of the oligarchy. I read Cheney's remarks re Palin in light of his probable knowledge Dewhurst was going to be hammered by Cruz. There is no way the oligarchy will support any candidates whose scent provides a contrast with putrefaction. It just wouldn't be prudent.

If elections were named, this one would be Twilight of the Zombies.

Danube of Thought

#16, but lose the tats.

NK

DoT-- good point about Tom Sowell. He's wonderful man, and genius of commonsense, and I would love Stuyvesant HS to be redeemed by a wonderful conservative public servant, but Tom Sowell is a man of a certain age.

Jim,MtnViewCA,USA

I really like this point made by an Insty reader. Why are we required to subsidize CNN, MSNBC and the like?

"...I’m all for repealing the tax breaks for Hollywood, but I’m also for ala carte programing. The big media conglomerates using cable and satellite to broadcast force the consumer to support networks like CNN, MSNBC, E, Comedy Central, VH-1, and a host of others that wouldn’t be viable if they had to stand on their own..."

dublindave

I'll contact my source just to reconfirm this but it's either Tim Pawlenty or a fresh coat of Gloss.

Captain Hate

narc, somebody should consult Cruz on how helpful the dim star was.

Tonto

@DoT: "RIP Gore Vidal. One of the most vicious queens who ever walked the planet."

My great uncle, Robert Olds, married Viidal's mother Nina (his fourth marriage and her third). Olds' two sons from his first marriage, Robin and Stevan, were West Pointers and Real Guys. No love lost between those step brothers!

Janet

...actually, I shouldn't joke about weight. I've been pounding down Chick-fil-A sandwiches lately. Went again today. Looked like a normal lunch crowd. I did some early Christmas stocking stuffer shopping...picked up some gift cards.

NK

Don't bother yourself DD, just have another Jameson's or Bushmill's-- OR a couple of each!

Jim,MtnViewCA,USA

My eye sheds a little tear each time I consider the Zen-like perfection of this ironic comment.

DublinDave, July 27, 2012
"Meanwhile,the First lady is just wowing the British people with her style,elegance and energy."

peter

no Chick-Fil-As here on Long Island, but that doesn't stop me from ordering their shirts: LUN

dublindave

President Adams is long since dead. And we have now been in the empire business since 1898. We had promised to give the Filipinos their independence from Spain. Then we changed our mind, killing some 200,000 of them in the process of Americanizing them.

Gore Vidal- "American imperialism".

Rest in Peace, Mr. Vidal, and thank you for having the courage to say what needed to be said. When cowards like Buckley hid behind intellectual dishonesty, you stood up and faced the firing squad.

Jim,MtnViewCA,USA

"...just have another Jameson's or Bushmill's..."
Good advice. It'll be a scorcher in Dublin, CA today.

Janet

Great idea, peter!

NK

I got a call from a source, and I don't know if it's true, but if it is, it's very troubling, anyway the source claims that for 12 years he and DD were.....

Clarice

I also think you can buy C-F-A gift cards online. I'll just wait till I'm in Fla again to get mine. Love them.

NK

MelR-- so what is Steve Koch like? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-01/koch-to-leave-credit-suisse-for-deputy-mayor-job.html

Jim,MtnViewCA,USA

Peter, the black clogs rock. Thanks for posting the link.

Thomas Collins
"you stood up and faced the firing squad."

Dublindave, thanks for the info. I didn't know that Vidal lived in Iran and had to face a firing squad for his lifestyle and for expressing his liberal views. I learn something new every day from you. I could have sworn Vidal pontificated in a free society which tolerates cranks in a manner that societies leftists are so fond of don't.

Thomas Collins

I must admit being amused by Vidal. Pedestrian intellects who think they have the answers for the world's problems always amuse me. When I think that the Ruling Class deems Vidal an intellect and ignores someone like Aurel Kolnai, a real intellect, I laugh (although I concede it is a sad thing to behold).

In any event, rest in peace, Mr. Vidal. You are one of God's children, and I wish your soul the best in eternity.

Danube of Thought

Tonto, Robin Olds was a genuine hero. Don't know about Stevan.

JM Hanes

Appalled:

"Portman is not a bad choice, though Ryan is a better one, since the affordability of government is part and parcel of the econoomic issues Romney is running on.

You don't get named Director of the OMB unless you can do the math! Portman is everybody's go-to guy for debate practice; he knows the Dem talking points inside out; he'd be a better liaison with the Senate should Dems hang on to their majority. He can apparently raise money like gangbusters, at least in Ohio; which is as significant for the people skiz it takes, as for the $$."

It may not take much to crush Biden in the VP debate, after 4 years as court jester. A capable, almost youthful Portman (who also has a sense of humor) would be a refreshing change. The contrast between the substance of the Romney team and the superficiality of team Obama, could be huge. From what little I've seen of Thune, he seems to share some of Romney's stiffness, which might actually make Biden's affability more appealing.

People may say that VPs don't make much difference in outcomes, but even a slight boost in Ohio could put Romney over the top, while Pennsylvania is going to remain a long shot, IMO. I'm not sure why people are still even talking about Pawlenty. His debate persona totally sucks, and he doesn't fire anybody up.

Paul Ryan can talk numbers all day long, but that's a weakness as well as a strength. I've never actually heard him talk about anything else; his roadmap is an all-I-want-for-Xmas flashpoint for the Dems, and his SOTU response was flat as a pancake. Ryan's value as Chairman of the Budget Committee, however, is absolutely indisputable, and that's right where an incoming President will need him most. I can't think of a better combo than Ryan and Portman. It's not just that they can follow the money, it's that they understand the architecture.

In the final analysis, Romney is the one who will win or lose the White House. What I'm looking at is the value added after the election, when the monumentally difficult task of reshaping the federal government begins.

Danube of Thought

Big Government re Gallup:

Today, Gallup released new job approvals polls taken in all fifty states with the headline: "Thirteen States and D.C. Give Obama Majority Approval."

You can also read that as "Obama Below Majority Approval In 37 States".

The problem for Obama is that his approval numbers are only above 50% in states we already know he's going to win in November. But in the swing states he must take in order to win the opportunity to finish the job of destroying our country, the President is well below 50.

Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania -- 46%.

Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina -- 45%

Ohio -- 44%.

Colorado, New Hampshire -- 43%.

NK

DoT-- I owe you- your 12:43 Gallup numbers are a beautiful thing and uplifting!

centralcal

There is a Tweet that Iran Ambassador to IAEA says the Ayatollah has died. Not seeing any other reporting or verification yet, so it may be a false flag.

Thomas Collins

If Maximum Imam really has exited, I'm sure he and Mr. Vidal will have many stimulating conversations.

NK

...in Hell!

Thomas Collins

As to Mr. Portman, if he is chosen, and he increases turnout in southern Ohio and doesn't do much else, that'll be a plus for Mittster.

Portman is certainly qualified to be POTUS if Mittster can't serve out his term.

JM Hanes

On McDonnell:

Once again, I have to ask why folks would want to send him out campaigning all over the country, instead of staying right where he can be most effective in a must win battleground state? As a running mate, he'll not only have to spend huge chunks of his time elsewhere, he'll have to spending it talking about Romney's accomplishments, not what he, himself, has done in Virginia. I don't think we need two governors on the ticket, and I also think the Dems would fall all over themselves in their haste to change the subject to sonograms.

Jim Ryan

Prison for bottle-feeding moms! Take their children away from them to child protective services where federal wet nurses can care for them!!

AliceH

Posted by: JM Hanes | August 01, 2012 at 12:41 PM

+1. If I had the skill, I would have made exactly these points.

James D.

Jim Ryan - isn't that wonderful? There's literally no activity in your life that that bastard Bloomberg doesn't want to control.

narciso

Again the unstated premise, is that conviction is wrong, yes I know she supported him as part of the All Star slate in 2010, but what has he done lately.

Douthat's default stance, as far back as I can recall was accomodation, and skepticism
to be charitable about the tea party,

The comments to this entry are closed.

Wilson/Plame