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August 14, 2012

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Ranger

Sorry to be so cynical, but this one is quite obvious.

Well, in fairness, there is also the outlook among professional politicos that a campaign should always operate as if it is 3 points down in the polls.

hrtshpdbox

Big news here in Pennsylvania, where the voter ID law was just upheld. Appeals are likely, though I have no idea if those would be ruled on prior to election day. In terms of his chances in the state, this is better for Romney than if Biden stood on the Harrisburg steps reprising Obama's thoughts about how folks just love clinging to guns and religion.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444375104577591002474351134.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Captain Hate

Somebody's been in the tanning booth too long: http://drewmusings.wordpress.com/2012/08/15/john-boehner-opponents-of-tarp-are-knuckle-draggers/

henry

Congrats hrtshpdbox! We need some non-Dane County appeals court to do that for us!

Extraneus

Click for full size.

narciso

I said that was unhelpful, but as with McCain
with the 'Hobbits, remark, here's your club.

It was a CBC story, surprise, Mark, I don't understand why you would already concede the
game, since he's probably relying on the flawed RCP index, that includes too many bad polls

Sue

Here's Rove's map. I don't see anything that is out of the ordinary in what he has as blue and leans blue. Romney would have to run the table on the toss ups and grab one of Obama's leaners. Is it possible? Sure. But I'm not as confident as GMax and others that Romney can do it.

Ranger

Well, if you want to know where Billy Jeff really stands on who should win in November, I would say this is a tell:

Erskine Bowles is not backing away from his previous praise of Rep. Paul Ryan now that the Wisconsin congressman is on the Republican presidential ticket.

Bowles was Clinton's cheif of staff. If Bill wanted him to change his tune, he would.

Mark Folkestad

Narciso, yes, it was a CBC story, but they were quoting CBS. So there are three possibilities for the county name mistake. It's funny, because CBC is so radical that they make our MSM look moderate by comparison. Most of my Canadian cousins (two batches) refuse to watch CBC, even for non-news programs.

Dave (in MA)

"Will not EFFECT anyone over 55". Who's he quoting?

jimmyk

Sue, I'll wager that not only will Romney get those "toss-ups" (NC? Yeah, right), but he'll take at least three of those lean Obama states, probably from among Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, PA, NM, NV. Those designations seem to based on a lot of those D+4 type polls.

narciso

Well, when too many of the polls, are special sauce entrees like Qunnipiac's +9 D advantage for Florida, it skews the results, you could just as easily using Rasmussen and Gallup come up with maybe 200-225 OTOH, giving yourself an incentive, and not already inducing the Cpl Hudson 'game over'results,

Sue

I get that the polls are probably off but I'm still saying that the ones Rove has going to Obama are not out of the realm of possibility. Anyway, I'm just using Rove's map to back up what a professor said on a local talk show earlier today, Obama is slightly ahead. Rove counters that with if Obama and Romney are tied, Romney is winning.

Rocco

Love Dave Mason's version of "All Along The Watchtower." Throwing my 2 cents in about the Blues, I think Johnny Winter is the greatest Blues guitarist ever. Check out the guitar in his "You Keep Sayin' That You're Leavin'."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZXzC39EDrY


jimmyk

There's also this from Rove's fine print:


Please note: for some states, the most recent polls available at this time are up to one year old and other states with no polling yet available have been classified Republican or Democrat based on their 2008 results.

Rove's got some kind of agenda, or is just mailing it in. Or both.

Extraneus

No comment on Sarah Paling calling on Obama to replace Biden with Hillary?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2188688/Palin-calls-Obama-dump-Biden-make-Hillary-Clinton-2012-running-mate.html

Porchlight

NC is not a tossup. The slimmest possible Romney victory margin as I see it is Romney flips IN, NC, VA, FL, OH, NH for 270 EVs and the win.

However, many other states are possibilities including IA, NV, CO, WI, PA, NM. IA probably the most single most likely of those.

Romney does have to take OH and FL in my view. If he can't take either of those, he can technically get to 270, but chances are he'll be running too weak to get the other states needed.

Sue

Okay Jimmy, forget Rove's map. I'm not defending it, just using it for another purpose. However, no one has said which one of the states Rove has in the blue column that is outrageous. So, which one is it that Romney has sewn up and Rove is off base?

sailor

Ext--I saw that too. I do wish she hadn't said that as I think having Biden on the ticket certainly helps the Repubs. Although, she did say that she did not think that Obama would do that.

Captain Hate

No comment on Sarah Paling calling on Obama to replace Biden with Hillary?

She's just reminding the JEF of how much she used to be in his otherwise empty head.

Dave (in MA)

She said she hoped that they wouldn't do that, IIRC.

AliceH

This short article by Andrew Malcolm, Why Romney chose Ryan, doesn't tell us anything new, but it tells it in one of the most entertaining ways.

Best bit:

According to veteran Democratic strategist Bob Shrum, between now and that election day Obama and his skilled team of reputation removers are going to so systematically dismantle Paul Ryan piece by painful piece, such that even his own children will boo him.
. . .
And Shrum knows well how this works. After all, he's led or worked on victorious Democrat White House campaigns for President Dick Gephardt, President Ted Kennedy, President Michael Dukakis, President Bob Kerrey, President Al Gore and, most recently, the winning come-from-ahead campaign of President John Kerry. Oh, wait.

As they say, "heh".

Thomas Collins

I don't think Biden is THAT much of a dummy to miss the implications of his "chains" remark. My suspicion is that Axelmessplouffe put that remark in the speech. Axelmessplouffe no doubt figured that the "chains" remark would rile up the base and wouldn't cause persuadables to vote for R & R. Plus, if Joe is not going to be on the ticket anyway, why not use him now as a rabble-rouser for the base. Although AA voters in the audience have been pointed to as the target of Biden's remarks, keep in mind that guilty of pallors with money to spend might be guilt tripped enough by that remark to pony up more for Obama or an "independent" group supporting Obama.

Porchlight

If he can't take either of those

Sorry, "either" should read "both." If Romney can't take either OH or FL, it's game over, no further analysis needed.

Porchlight

I do wish she hadn't said that as I think having Biden on the ticket certainly helps the Repubs.

Reverse psychology. No way would Obama take Sarah Palin's advice in ten thousand years and she knows it. Biden will stay.

jimmyk

Of course Romney hasn't sewn up any of those lean blue states, but as I said, I'll be happy to wager he'll get a bunch of them. Obama's not genuinely ahead in any of them except maybe PA, and that's a lot closer than 7%..

Captain Hate

I think dumbassdave is Shrum. That would explain a lot.

Extraneus

I wonder if it was coordinated with the campaign. First Giuliani, then Sarah Palin?

Soylent Red

There was a time, at this very blog, when some folks posited that Shrum was so politically uncalibrated and detrimental to Democrat politicians that he must be working for, or possibly be, Karl Rove.

Shrum is the Chairman of the Board and acting CEO of ACME Election Consulting.

Meep, meep.

Jane - Get off the couch your country needs you!

The video at Alice's link is spectacular even if you have seen it before.

Stuart Varney pointed out last night that Obama has never changed course on anything midstream so he think there is no chance he will change Biden and there is no time anyway.

I think people are waking up And the ones who wake up after the convention will see very clearly the choice, and that is a good thing.

I also think Erskine Bowles is putting his love of country over his political party, and I suspect he is not alone.

narciso

Like I say 'I'm just a lowly muskrat' but you would think he wouldn't give the 'Game Over'
partisans, any room.

Sue

There was a time, at this very blog, when some folks posited that Karl Rove was a magnificent bastard.

Meep, meep...

jimmyk

I'll even go out on a limb and bet that Romney takes one of those deep blue states. In other words, I think it's 50-50 that this will be more like 1980 than, say, 2000.

Sue

Jimmy,

I hope and pray you are right. Nothing would make me happier. I'm just feeling a little Eyeoreish.

Ignatz

-- So, which one is it that Romney has sewn up and Rove is off base?

Posted by: Sue | August 15, 2012 at 10:39 AM--

It's not a question of Romney having sewn anything up.
It's Rove's attribution of, for instance, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin as 'lean Barry'.
We're talking one or two arbitrary percentage points of the average of all polls of an unknown vintage to draw the map.
Close to useless for determining the Electoral votes IMO and it would be equally useless if it showed Romney with an advantage.
GIGO.

jimmyk

I think Rove is very good at "in-the-box" analysis, but when the ground is shifting beneath him, I don't think he (or many others) have much to say. I'm sure in 1980 he would have been saying the election is too close to call up until the last week.

Captain Hate

Btw I'm very grateful that DoT's skin will no longer crawl due to Chris Shays being in Congress.

AliceH

I can't resist sharing my little pop psychology theory. While there seem to be a number of stories now about how Ryan has "re-invigorated" Romney (and I expect many more to come), I think it the cause is more basic to Romney's nature. He's an experienced leader of a team, and not so comfortable in the role of standing up strictly for his own sake. Now that he no longer weighs his answers and responses in terms of "me", but in terms of "our" ideas, he'll be much more aggressive, explicit, and targeted. This is unrelated to actual decision making, which I still think is a great strength of his. It's just that Romney seems able to rationalize ignoring a range shots that target him personally, but will stand and fight against shots against those he's made a commitment to.

As a pop psychologist, my ability to explain is wanting... but somewhere in there is my point. /end pop.

Soylent Red

Karl Rove was a magnificent bastard.

Guilty as charged, Sue. Now I just think he's a garden variety bastard.

Sue

It's Rove's attribution of, for instance, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin as 'lean Barry'.

Okay. I wish I had not used Karl Rove's name. I forget he is now non compus mentis around here.

Captain Hate

Rove is very good at separating high earning swells from their disposable income and using it for excellent ads at American Crossroads.

AliceH

I like Rove.

Rick Ballard

TC,

It's mid-August. The question should be "Why is the administration trying to pump the only solid demographic in their base in mid-August?" The Hispanic cohort contains the largest percentage of undecided and stroking blacks to pimp 'white guilt' (which is damn near nonexistent, IMO) won't pull Hispanics back onto the plantation.

BOzo is working in a very small space and the votes he needs are not the votes he's chasing. An alternative view is he's pimping blacks to commit felonies on the same scale as '08. I don't believe that's going to happen either.

narciso

Well forget it's Rove, it could any other member of the Duke and Duke/Conquistador Coffee executive committee, they use inflated
polls OTOS, to justify not taking risks,

Janet

We're here to save the nation!

GMAX

I dont have time to click through to Rove's analysis at the moment, but I do remember a spot he did a few weeks back where his map was put up on the screen during a FOX broadcast and he had South Carolina as a toss up. When the Fox broadcaster pointed that out, he admitted there was no recent polling and he was using a very old survey.

I have given you a logical reason why he would be pushing this. Ignor it and sit and stew about how we are stuck with this SOB for the next 4 years if you like. I have shown over and over how the internals of the polls are against him, and nothing I have seen in the last two weeks shakes my confidence one iota. But do work like we are two touchdowns down in the third qtr as it will be exhilarating when the win happens.

narciso

See they will stir this into the gumbo, and of course that will tilt the average ever so slightly among the muddle;


http://www.jammiewf.com/2012/new-poll-unlikely-voters-favor-obama-2-to-1/

AliceH

--We're here to save the nation!--

LOL, Janet! Do you suppose there is a similar photoshop with, oh, I dunno... maybe Val Kilmer and Willow? (I like that movie, too).

Thomas Collins

Rick, I agree that I left out the aspect of energizing the voter fraud contingent in the battleground states. It must be tough now to be Axelmessplouffe and to realize that the number of needed cemetery, illegal alien and bussed in votes have been way underestimated.

narciso

Of course, we're going to get a fair shake from her, sarc;


http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tim-graham/2012/08/14/abcs-moderator-martha-raddatz-touted-cool-hillary-huge-victory-and-great

Sue

Admit It, I Scare The Ever-Loving Shit Out Of You, Don't I?.

narciso

Now mind you, it appears that the 30K margin in the latest election, is absentee ballot;


http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/14/2951866/miami-dade-canvassing-board-examines.html

Porchlight

To have SC as a tossup or even lean R is simply ludicrous. It ought to have never been anything but bright red.

Yes, the polling is often old. That is the chief reason why Rove shouldn't get too attached to his map. State polling is spotty and there's just not enough data in mid-August to be certain of anything.

AliceH

O/T. Happy news in my email inbox this morning, subject: "It's a Girl!!"

Yes indeed.

Yesterday, I was a mere, garden variety aunt, but today I am a GREAT Aunt. Nothing can stop the indulgent spoiling of this newest generation now!

narciso

In other discouraging news, our own version of Corey, who absolves the guilty, and often goes after the innocent, was retained.

centralcal

Sue: great link! Hot damn!

centralcal

Congratulations, Auntie Alice.

Porchlight

State polling is spotty and there's just not enough data in mid-August to be certain of anything.

Sorry, I just realized I contradicted myself. We *can* be certain of SC - it's simply not a swing state in the same way that NY is not a swing state.

We *can't* be certain about actual swing states like OH. If SC is in yellow on Rove's map then OH should not be leaning D. OH is far less certain a win for the Ds than SC is for the Rs. That's what makes it ludicrous.

rse

With respect to the Duke & Duke comments and fainting spells over Ryan, I am deep in the swamp today. We really do have a huge number of name companies beyond the usual suspects that signed on for a Fascist future economy. I think they hear the Small Planet type analysis at conferences with reps from other big companies and sign on. Most execs at these big businesses do not know science or history or political theory or economics. Speakers start talking about systems and it seems to make sense to them.

Plus these are expensive conferences before you get to airfare and accomodations.

It is sad to read but quite a few of these execs probably see themselves as Reps and like a nice managed economy where everyone will get basic needs met.

Collective. Collective.

Community. Community.

And then Ryan starts talking about individuals again. How last century if not the previous one is that?

DebinNC

This year Ohio ends up with a $1B surplus, yet John Kasich rarely if ever makes the news. Obama has lavished Ohio with $$$, knowing he'd need the win now, but do Ohio voters foolishly credit him with their financial turnaround? Do they believe if O wins a second term the federal gravy train will continue chugging through OH?

Porchlight

Ha, Sue, that Onion piece is teh AWESOME. The Onion is out of Madison. They know of what they speak, even when they're spoofing.

Sue

Because I’m Paul Ryan. That’s what I do.

Boom!

Captain Hate

This year Ohio ends up with a $1B surplus, yet John Kasich rarely if ever makes the news. Obama has lavished Ohio with $$$, knowing he'd need the win now, but do Ohio voters foolishly credit him with their financial turnaround

The donks work 24/7 to marginalize Kasich because they know his plan is working. If Ohioans can't see through the smoke screen, the state is toast. I prefer to be more optimistic.

narciso

You get more of the likes of this, at the Plain Stealer,


[email="example@example.com"][/email]http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/08/ohio_democrats_take_records_di.html#incart_mrt

Ignatz

--Admit It, I Scare The Ever-Loving Shit Out Of You, Don't I?.

Posted by: Sue | August 15, 2012 at 11:12 AM --

Well, I didn't want to say anything......but.....that "girls pee standing up" comment a while back finally put the fear of Sue into me.

Dave (in MA)

Since we're pasting in Instapundit links, here's a story he linked to that shows how Progressive customers are paying premiums to a company that will defend a customer's killer in court and give some of the money they save to Soros.

http://datechguyblog.com/2012/08/15/progressives-flo-vs-dead-womans-brother-with-a-blog-no-contest/

AliceH

From Rasmussen: "Republican challenger Josh Mandel now runs even with incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race."

I credit centralcal's donation. ;-)

hrtshpdbox

I'll even go out on a limb and bet that Romney takes one of those deep blue states.

Yep, and New Jersey would be the prime suspect for potentially ending up in the red column. There are so few states that are 100% sewn up, on either side; a shift of four or five points in the national averages changes the whole map in a big way. In '80, with a couple of weeks to go, it seemed absolutely impossible for New York to go Republican; after the debate, when I heard murmurs of it possibly happening, I still didn't believe it. And it happened. This year, I think WI, OH, and PA could all go red. In WI, Thompson could have coattails that help Romney; in PA, of course, the voter ID law preventing fraud in Philly is a big boost.

centralcal

Are you ready for this?

Can you guess who it is? (Not Lady GaGa)

Danube of Thought

If SC is in yellow on Rove's map then OH should not be leaning D. OH is far less certain a win for the Ds than SC is for the Rs. That's what makes it ludicrous.

It is indeed. Bear in mind that Rove's map contains no analysis or judgment; it's simply a color-coded representation of the results of some highly dubious and stale state polls. I really don't know why he publishes it, other than to squeeze more bucks for his PAC.

Jane - Get off the couch your country needs you!

I still love Rove, but I love GMAX more and I'm with him on the victory.

So I'm wondering what the Obama campaign will come up with to try and save this thing and all I can come up with is war with Iran.

It would be more than odd if that actually helped him.

PD

“Mr. President, take your campaign of division and anger and hate back to Chicago,” Romney said while campaigning in Ohio…

Good for him. Needs to be pointed out that Obama's campaign to stoke envy and anger illustrates how Obama is "a divider, not a uniter."

Danube of Thought

Raz:

Rasmussen Reports’ latest look at the presidential race in Ohio shows President Obama and Mitt Romney running dead even at 45% each.
PD

PD, I haven't seen a post from you for a long time. Are you the same PD that visits the coffee shop? I'm really happy to see you posting again.

Thanks! Yep, I'm the same one. I guess I kind of overdosed on politics for a long time and haven't checked in much since the end of last year.

sailor

Well, Jane, Erskine Bowles might be putting his "love of country over his political party," but he still says he is supporting O and voting for him.

Sue

finally put the fear of Sue into me.

LOL.

Janet

Congrats, AliceH! The good stuff in life.

Who is that centralcal?

narciso

Yes, but Jane, a war with Iran, will be nowhere near the kind of 'cakewalk' that the initial Iraq intervention was, they have a significant air and missile component, that can retaliate.

centralcal

FishbowlDC:

Chelsea Clinton on the cover of Vogue? Chelsea with her hair all puffed out like a hornets nest supermodel style? Chelsea in couture?

We rolled our eyes, too.

Jim,MtnViewCA,USA

"Not Lady Gaga"
The other name on the cover is Chelsea Clinton.

narciso

Congrats Alice.

Sue

Bear in mind that Rove's map contains no analysis or judgment;

::sigh:: I really, really, really wish I hadn't mentioned his name. I used his map because I had seen it yesterday and this morning a professor at SMU said Obama was slightly ahead and no vice president had ever swayed an election. Next time I use a map, it will be Christopher Columbus's map of the West Indies.

Captain Hate

Congrats Alice

Porchlight

Sue, it's always helpful to look at the map - any map - for a reality check. Most of the blue and lean blue states on Rove's map do have a solid chance of going to Obama, so your question was a good one.

Jim,MtnViewCA,USA

" I really, really, really wish I hadn't mentioned [Rove's] name."

Yeah, a lot of us feel like we're seeing a preference cascade developing, very exciting!...but we don't want to fall for being in an echo chamber.
I'm sure we all know what your point was, Sue.
Mingled hope and dread.

DebinNC

Paul Ryan (fake) gmail account

Chelsea's NBC gig bombed as she proved to be personality-challenged.

narciso

I know 'you may ask yourself' how could they tell the difference at Reuters;


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/15/reuters-hacked-saudi-arabia-syria_n_1778525.html?utm_hp_ref=media

peter

I always thought fashion photographers could make anyone look passable, but obviously Chelsea Clinton was too much of a challenge.
That cover looks like a dead fish.

narciso

Forget it's Rove, a map that has SC leaning in this day and age, now matter how hacktastic
the State, is highly dubious.

Sue

narciso,

The map doesn't have SC leaning it has it toss up. But that's it...not another word from me about Kar...never mind.

narciso

Take my own state of Florida, +1 D, is so far within the MOE, that's it's ridiculous to put that as tossup, based on those numbers.

AliceH

DebinNC@11:56 - Love the fakePaulRyanemail link! I'm still laughing at the Barney Frank one.

narciso

Another macro point, he assumes Romney lost 50
electoral votes, among leaners, and Obama gained 60 through out the month of July, does that sound right?

centralcal

A security guard was shot a little while ago at the Family Research Council building in DC.

narciso

A pretty devastating ad;


http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2012/08/15/mr-president-you-did-not-kill-osama-bin-laden-america-did/

Jane - Get off the couch your country needs you!

Does anyone have an analysis of yeterday's primaries? Any trends? Tea partiers v old school, cake walks etc?

narciso

I would say, Duke and Duke won a few, Mica over Adams, as well as Thompson, but on balance, the TP won the match.

Danube of Thought

Trayvon II. Homies gotta stop punching people.

Danube of Thought

Awfully nice to see Shays go down 3-1.

NK

Henry-- is Thompson really Duke and Duke?, or in the current realities he'll follow Walker, Ryan,Johnson Wisc fiscal politics?

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