A Bitter Controversy Over The Jobs Report

Yet another dismal jobs report renews calls for Fed action.

But is this animated .gif actually Ben Bernanke in action or David Axelrod redeploying Obama's ad budget?

Nonfarm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 96,000 in August, well below estimates and down from 141,000 jobs in July.

[Adding to the sense of weakness, the Labor Department’s payroll count for June and July was revised lower by a cumulative 41,000. Payrolls rose by a revised 45,000 in June and by 141,000 in July.]

The payrolls growth came in weaker than the 125,000 increase expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See comprehensive MarketWatch economic calendar with consensus forecasts.

The nation’s unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 8.1%, down from 8.3% in July, according to a separate survey of households.

Economists had been expecting the jobless rate to hold steady at 8.3%.

The decline wasn’t particularly good news, however, because it reflected 368,000 people dropping out of the labor force. While unemployment dropped by 250,000 to 12.5 million for August, employment also fell, dipping 119,000 to 142.1 million. Read full government report.

Comments

[Dave (in MA)]

"Spanky" Bernanke. I love it.

[Danube of Thought]

Well, not entirely Off Topic. Paul Bedard:

CHARLOTTE, N.C. - As buoyant Democratic

delegates head home from their three-day convention here to nominate President Obama for a second term, party officials and advisors are sweating the reality that the 2008 hope and change thrill is gone--and so might be Obama's voting majority.

While Obama and Mitt Romney remain locked in public polls, several Democratic officials are worried that three groups that pushed Obama over the finish line in 2008--younger voters, seniors and "Walmart" white women--are as frustrated as other groups about the economy and Obama's failure to change Washington and might stay home

[Melinda Romanoff]

Thanks, TM!

[Melinda Romanoff]

Jane-

Lucianne has up a pic of Queen Elizabeth's Chair Effort.

Too funny.

[NK]

TM/MelR-- did you read the link to "Call" for fed action? The 2 concluding graphs? and who wrote it? It concludes that QE3 won't do anything (except raise gas and food prices further) and the solution is fiscal action (to me that means repeal Obamacare, cut spending and reform the tax Code)-- but DO QE3 anyway, even though QE2 and twist were failures, and QE3 will fail as well. Huh? Written by Rex Nutting, REX NUTTING? that sounds like an 80s porn actor name-- not that I know anything about those things. We're supposed to follow financial advice from Rex Nutting?

[matt]

The ECB action in buying debt from insolvent economics is akin to buying a return ticket on the Titanic. Banks are supposed to make sure they stay solvent for their depositors and shareholders.

The Spanish case is especially tough. The demand for bailout funds is growing much faster than anticipated, and in addition to the banks, the regional governments are now pulling the fire alarm.

Draghi, by saying they're buying program is unlimited, is simply building another story on the house of cards. And still, the various governments to whom he is accountable, have not given their blessings.

That can being kicked down the road is looking more battered than Rodney King.

[steve]

Absent manipulating of the numbers (which I wouldn't put past this Administration), the only way the employment picture improves is if businesses start hiring.

And other than businesses in the bag for Obama (i.e., GE, Goldman, Solyndra (oops, they're not hiring), etc.), what business owner is going to decide anytime over the next two months that the thing they need to do more than anything is to go out and add employees?

Even if there was an opportunity to hire, why wouldn't businesses wait until after (hopefully, knock on wood) Obama loses? Heck, given the stakes, I could imagine some employers (temporarily) cutting back on staffing in hopes of doing their little bit to make the job numbers look that much worse for Obama.

Think of this as the business version of Just Desserts... Obama has spent the past three plus years trashing business and demonizing the successful. And now these very same people hold his future in their hands.

Payback can be a b***h, huh?

[NK]

Matt-- what are "sterilized" gov't bonds purchased by ECB?

[Melinda Romanoff]

Rex = "King".

King Nutting = Blanc Mange

QED

Matt-

With the Spanish bank run in full flow, there are not enough bonds available, that aren't already pledged as ECB collateral, for the ECB to buy.

[Voldemort WILL BE defeated ! Sandy Daze]

“President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people,”

Eastwood told The Pine Cone this week.

Made my day.

[NK]

Seriously about Eastwood-- he IS Hollywood now. His films are not only artistically and technically superb, HE MAKES MONEY. For over 100 years, nothing in Hollywood is revered as much as making money. Oh the Hollywood Lefties hate Clint now for attacking Bam, but watch, there will be limited and polite criticism directed at Clint from the Hollywood nutters. He's that important now-- even at 82. Amazing.

[Jack is Back (At the Dealer for Service)]

Unexpectedly my car wouldn't start this morning. This the first it has failed to start since 2008. That is what "unexpected" means not when it fails to start at least once a week for over 400 weeks.,

[Jack is Back (At the Dealer for Service)]

Watching CF13 at dealer. Just heard they are subpeona GZ school records. Also something about his social media activities. It's all on the CF13 News website. I am on my iPhone.

[matt]

These are supposed to be absolutely, positively, to be paid back before all other bonds.I believe they are short duration as well.

Problem is that economies don't collapse uniformly. The number of variables involved; all of the Greek economy; all of the Spanish economy; most of Italy, Portugal, etc. would seem to indicate that there is a risk multiplier that is being ignored; whistling past the graveyard from what I see.

The Euro banks are the ones holding most of the bad debt right now, and the balance sheet games have to be insanely deceptive for them to look stable. These are the people who will transact the bonds because of the ECB backstop.

What I am seeing is the various governments stepping in to clean up individual messes like the French mortgage bank that just went BK. The whole issue of municipal debt in countries such as France seems to be being ignored for the time being.

A massive slump brought on by one starts a domino effect of reduced economic activity which further causes the economies to decline and then reduces tax revenue and other forms of government income.

Right now there is low demand even in China and the BRIC's. So there is no economic engine driving global growth except a sputtering U.S. economy.

In crises, perception is reality and I think the ECB is banking on this. I hope they're right.

[NK]

Matt/MelR-- so 'sterilized' is simply ECB priority, correct?

[hit and run]

96,000 jobs were created in August. Take every person represented by those jobs -- and if you packed them in tightly -- you could have fit them in Bank of America Stadium last night. Literally. Obama wasn't using it.

368,000 people dropped out of the labor force. Obama would have to deliver last night's speech roughly 25 times in order for each of those people to get to see it live in Time Warner Cable Arena.

[Jim,MtnViewCA,USA]

re: Draghi's pronouncements. The Euro leaders keep making them, they keep on being empty, and they have a diminishing half-life in soothing the markets.
The proposals are fisked here. A snip on "subordination" given below.
http://brucekrasting.com/on-marios-shock-and-awe/
"As part of any bailout, Mario has insisted that the IMF will be brought in. Let me be very clear on this. The IMF is always Senior to pubic holders of debt. This means that the IMF will be Senior to the ECB as to the right of repayment. ...
There is a reason that governments and the IMF have always been treated as senior to other creditors. These types of lenders are not in it for the return, they are forced into lending as a result of a crisis. Tax payer money is at risk when cross-border bailout loans are made. Those types of creditors should have protection over commercial lenders who made a mistake. That has been the tradition in all sovereign bailouts over the past 100 years."

[Melinda Romanoff]

"Sterilized" means buy one bond and sell another. You get price action without the pesky monetization feature.

[Jim,MtnViewCA,USA]

re: sterilization
I don't know what this means either and would like to (if someone knows).
Here is what Bruce Krasting has to say, clearly it is related to minimizing inflation from money-printing.
(pronouncement)
E) In a brilliant move, Draghi placated those old curmudgeons at the Bundesbank who have expressed concern on the inflationary front. Any bond purchases that the ECB makes, will be immediately sterilized. This single step eliminates the possibility of any inflationary consequences.
(fisk)
E – I wait to see if the promise to sterilize all purchases of debt is delivered on. If this is done in small amounts (under E 200Bn), I think that it could be done in a sterilized manner. But there is little chance that it can be done in the Trillions of Euros that will be required. To live up to the promise of “unlimited”, Draghi will have to print money. To think there are no inflationary consequences attached to the Draghi plan is just wishful thinking, or outright lies.

[Jim,MtnViewCA,USA]

thanks, Mel.

[NK]

MelR-- thanks.

[Danube of Thought]

Breitbart:

"Several high-profile former supporters of President Barack Obama in 2008 announced on Thursday they have now switched to Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  

"The group launched a petition online on the day Obama addressed the Democratic National Convention, hammering home the point that Obama let down many Democrats and independents who believed in his rhetoric of hope and change in 2008.  

"Former NBA and UNLV Runnin' Rebel basketball player Greg Anthony and former Democratic Congressman Artur Davis join Ashley Bell, Hall County Commissioner, Jane Edmonds, former Massachusetts Secretary of Workforce Development, and Barney Bishop, Former Executive Director of the Florida Democratic Party, on the national leadership team. "

[NK]

MelR-- per JimMtnView's point, are there unlimited bonds to 'sterilize' without printing Euros, i.e monetizing the bond purchases.

[JM Hanes]

hit:

"96,000 jobs were created in August. Take every person represented by those jobs -- and if you packed them in tightly -- you could have fit them in Bank of America Stadium last night. Literally."

Send that to Team Romney by instant messenger! Or send it to Instapundit -- anything to get it into immediate circulation. That's Prez Goldman Sachs quality material.

[Clarice]

Yes, it is, JMH. That's out hit.........

[bgates]

Questions for the econ and demographic boffins:

* Are new retirees factored in to the calculation of the number of people leaving the labor force? There were 76 million Boomers born during the two decades after the war, which averages out to about 316,000 a month.

* How do they calculate the number of young people entering the work force for the first time? If the criterion is simply turning 18, that's about 375k/mo; presumably the number of young people entering and leaving college roughly balances out so there would still be that number who could potentially enter the work force. But what about kids who get out of high school or college and just move back in with their parents? Are they ever counted as entering or leaving the work force?

[dave]

Why were the August numbers seasonally adjusted? Or more appropriately phrased, why were the August numbers in 2012 seasonally adjusted when the August 2011 numbers weren't? What was the "not seasonally adjusted number" for August 2012. I'll anxiously await the answers from the AP, CNN, etc.

[Melinda Romanoff]

NK-

No. Currently the known bond pool is finite and largely encumbered, meaning they have been pledged as collateral to either the Bundesbank or the ECB for their cash float.

[NK]

MelR@1:21-- OK no surprise there; so what is Draghi talking about? is it just BS to delay the day of default reconning and the collapse of European banks holding the crap sovereign debt?

[Melinda Romanoff]

All the above are published, every first Friday of the month, at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Today's release was nearly 40 pages. You can look it up.

No mysteries. It's all there.

[NK]

'Seasonal adjustments'?-- the Birth-Death model assumed 87,000 jobs were created that BLS can't prove. In August 2011 the Birth-Death model assumed 52,000, and in later reports that was revised down a few thousand. So will this August 2012 assumption be reduced by 35,000+? probably. The Household Survey of actual people found 119,000 FEWER people working than in July and 368,000 fewer workers. They are people like DD who have gone on Soc Sec Disability welfare. It's a jobs disaster.

[Melinda Romanoff]

NK- Think Augean Stables.

bgates- That's the CES Birth/Death model you are looking for. Sort of like the English on the ball that is Non-Farm Payrolls number.

[NK]

arghhh reconning= reckoning

[Jane - Get off the couch your country needs you!]

"96,000 jobs were created in August. Take every person represented by those jobs -- and if you packed them in tightly -- you could have fit them in Bank of America Stadium last night. Literally."

I agree with JMH and Clarice. Start with Instapundit. I'm going to shorten it for Twitter.

[Melinda Romanoff]

NK-

B/D model doesn't work that way. It's more like stretching the ruler.

[Barbara]

NK

"reconning" = good description for Obama campaign tactics and rhetoric

[Extraneus]

I just want to call attention to this great comment by Ignatz from last night:

I wish Republicans would respond to the "oh poor old Barry inherited a big surprise mess" schtick by pointing out more often that the dope didn't inherit anything, he's not an heir to the presidency. He was hired by the moron majority to fix the mess that everyone knew existed in Nov 2008 and that he himself promised to fix. Clint got it but it needs to be hammered in those terms more and more.

He was hired. He failed. He's fired.

Posted by: Ignatz | September 07, 2012 at 12:12 AM

I hope someone from Romney's debate prep team is reading here, because that line about not being an "heir to the presidency" is golden, and easily followed up with such other heavy ordnance as "He's your employee [looking into the camera]" whose "contract has expired" and "I'm respectfully applying for the position." Etc.

You know Obama won't be able to resist using the word "inherited" during the debates. Hopefully his strategists aren't reading here.

[NK]

MelR-- Ok, but if I remember my greek mythology, there were magical rivers that bailed out Hercules and cleaned out the stables in a day, and augeas refused to make good on the bet and was killed by Hercules. So who is Draghi/Banks? Hercules or augeas?

[Captain Hate]

Since there wasn't a specific JEF speech thread, here's the Tammy Mystery Science Theater 3000 broadcast: http://tammybruce.com/category/public-podcast

Also, per Dennis Miller, Peggy Noonan is not responding to his invitations to appear on his radio show. Either the prospect of staying sober after noon or dealing with higher cognitive abilities than ScarredBurro or Meeka was, in the words of Ted Kennedy, a bridge too far.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Hercules=market

Augeas=Draghi/EU

[NK]

CaptH-- so are we to assume, you are not a peggy n fan?

[Ranger]

He was hired by the moron majority to fix the mess that everyone knew existed in Nov 2008 and that he himself promised to fix.

It's not just that he was hired. He begged for the job. And now that it turns out it was too hard for him, it's something that was dumpted on him.

[Clarice]

From Cripes Suzette:

"Now here’s a question for Democrat women only:When a DNC-approved and pre-screened speaker stood in front of the convention and said: there are three simple reasons for anyone to support Barack Obama: “Your sister, your mother, and your daughter”, didn’t you find it insulting or even slightly odd that he didn’t include “YOU”.

Hello? Didn’t any of you get just a little shiver when you recognized that the party call only goes out to the men?"

[NK]

MelR@1:41-- thought so-- OHPAH!!!

[Rick Ballard]

"Are they ever counted as entering or leaving the work force?"

Yes. The labor force is comprised of all those employed or seeking employment. If young RainbowUnicorn has moved back to mom's basement and is looking for work, he's in the labor force. If he's spending his days cruisin' in the Choomwagon, he's not.

You have to add green card entrants to the 375K per month. LPR's were issued at the rate of 85K per month in 2011 so 460K is closer to the mark for entrants. Then you deduct persons leaving the labor force due to discouragement, retirement, disability or death to get the net number.

[Captain Hate]

NK, she squandered her credibility four years ago to a transparent fraud that should've sent every sensory detector of a grifter on full alert. But she loves appearing on the unchallenging Morning Joke show which doesn't threaten her delusions of being prescient.

[Jane - Get off the couch your country needs you!]

BTW the number of people who became unemployed in August (119,000) could not fit in Bank of America stadium, even if they put seats on the floor.

[NK]

MelR@1:41-- and this EuroModel of social welfare state, high taxes, crony 'banking', high sovereigndebt that results in economic stagnation and debt collapse, this is the model which morons like Bam, Biden, Sperling and Krugman and the whole Academic Economist world (except whats his name at Harvard) demand we follow. Is it too much to ask that they all be discredited by this economic fiasco.

[NK]

CaptH-- does she also enjoy a good 1100am Stoli Martini, DOUBLE, neat, 3 olives?

[Empty this, empty that; just believe, no back chat.]

We're going to Hell in an empty handbasket.
========================

[Ignatz]

--Then you deduct persons leaving the labor force due to discouragement, retirement, disability or death....--

Do we also deduct those leaving for food stamps, medicaid, AFDC, 99 weeks of unemployment, and so on?
How about those leaving for SSDI?

[Danube of Thought]

"does she also enjoy a good 1100am Stoli Martini, DOUBLE, neat, 3 olives?"

If so, she and I might get on famously.

[Rick Ballard]

"Is it too much to ask that they all be discredited by this economic fiasco."

Possibly. Revel explored the fact French dirigisme showed hardly a hiccup after the fall of the perfectly planned state of the Soviet Union. I'm not at all sure of what will be required to kill Auguste Comte's zombie. While razing l'École Polytechnique and the Ivy League is certainly worth a try, I'm afraid we're going to have first see how the Great OPM Famine ends. If we're lucky, today's oligarchs will find a new Pericles to herd them to safety behind Athen's walls.

[NK]

RickB-- but what if the new Pericles is Austrian born and has a funny little moustache? or a Corsican midget?

[NK]

"If so, she and I might get on famously."
Of course, but would you slosh your way through a televised interview in that state?

[Luca]

F word twitter alert...

"Liberals cuss out Archbishop Timothy Cardinal Dolan"

http://twitchy.com/2012/09/07/liberals-cuss-out-archbishop-timothy-cardinal-dolan/

[Jane - Get off the couch your country needs you!]

I noticed something really interesting last night. I was sort of stunned by Biden's reaction when he came out on stage - he was pretty much overtaken by the idolatry. He was totally caught up in all the screaming and clapping. He was obviously enjoying it immensely.

(How would you feel if that was you?)

And then I realized that Romney doesn't like the idolatry. In fact I think it makes him feel awkward -which is why people complain that he is unapproachable. Now I do think he has gotten better at it since Ryan joined the ticket - I saw that in Manchester. But still who would guess a lack of narcissism would be such a detriment.

[Frau Pinkelstein]

"96,000 jobs were created in August."

That's not even 2,000 for each of our fifty states. But we're not to get all wee-wee-ed up over it.

[Frau Heute blau und morgen blau]

...staying sober after noon...

Speaking of sober, I'd like to know what Jennifer Granholm was drinking/ingesting, because I'd like to stay away from it.

[Ignatz]

--That's not even 2,000 for each of our fifty states.--

Fifty?
You must count in Austrian, Frau.

[jimmyk]

To answer bgates's 1st question: there's no demographic adjustment, so some of the labor force decline uis due to boomers retiring. But only some. I did a rough calc awhile back that suggested that was less than half the decline.

[Dave (in MA)]

OT: Google has a fun doodle today. You can make a Red Shirt nervous and have Kirk defeat the Gorn. Sulu is yellow. Racist! He also seems to be very interested in crewman Red Shirt. Oh, my.

[Captain Hate]

Speaking of sober, I'd like to know what Jennifer Granholm was drinking/ingesting, because I'd like to stay away from it.

Somebody @ AoS said that she looked like Julie from the Love Boat; I'm thinking that was Slick's fantasy payoff for that stem-winder he delivered. Another of my fellow morons had this comment: She came off like a drunk secretary on Friday night, heading straight to "Scandals" where she stumbles around on one broken heel, hair all fucked up.

If she didn't wake up in a puddle of her own vomit with a rubber hanging out of her ass this morning, I'd be surprised.

Also the big talk on Detroit stations concentrated that she had her facial mole removed.

[NK]

JimmyK-- it's pretty clear at this point that the BLS reports of vastly reduced labor participation are not just retirees, they are heavily influenced by Disability claims and discouraged workers not seeking any employment -- OR, BLS is BSing to keep the unemployment rate % down (personally, I doubt they are BSing).

[Danube of Thought]

"some of the labor force decline uis due to boomers retiring"

Including those who "retire" when they lose their job at age 59 and there's no point in looking for another.

[bgates]

If young RainbowUnicorn has moved back to mom's basement and is looking for work, he's in the labor force. If he's spending his days cruisin' in the Choomwagon, he's not.

How does the BLS know what little RU is doing?

And I doubt they keep track of the IPR (illegal permanent residents), but is there a net outflow there?

[Porchlight]

Just a little summary from studying Rove's map. I posted something to this effect in the comments to Stanley Kurtz's post on the Corner (linked a thread or two ago).

Here are the swing state 30-day public poll averages:

IN - Romney + 16 - Obama won it by 1 point in 2008
IA - tied - Obama won it by 9 points
NC - tied - Obama won it by 1 point (actually .3%)
CO - Obama +1 - Obama won it by 9 points
OH - Obama +2 - Obama won it by 5 points
FL - Obama +2 - Obama won it by 3 points
VA - Obama + 2 - Obama won it by 6 points
NV - Obama + 3 - Obama won it by 12 points
WI - Obama +3 - Obama won by 13 points
MI - Obama + 3 - Obama won it by 16 points
NH - Obama + 4 - Obama won it by 9 points

These states in addition to the McCain states equal 317 electoral votes.

IN, NC, OH, FL, VA plus one other state on that list = Romney victory.

Team Obama is sweating bullets.

[James D.]

From the other thread, rse noted the Kurtz piece on NRO ("are Republicans fooling themselves?"). It dovetails nicely with Byron York's piece (LUN):

The situation facing Romney is hard for some Republicans to comprehend. They didn't buy Obama's bill of goods in the first place and find it hard to sympathize with anyone who did. But there are millions of people who voted for Obama who are not only disappointed in him but have come to the conclusion that he does not deserve to be re-elected. The problem for Romney is they might still be persuaded to vote for the president. Making them comfortable with the idea of leaving Obama is Romney's job.

and...

The important thing for Romney, aides believe, is not to rub the voters' noses in their decision from four years ago. Don't bash Obama, don't even harp on how he's not up to the job -- that carries the implication that they should have known that when they voted for him. Just focus on the point that his policies have not made things better.

How can we square that viewpoint - which is, sadly, probably correct - with what Kurtz says (Zero's agenda is far-reaching and transformational, and the Dems have bought into it 1,000%, and if we want to have any hope of surviving as a free society, it needs to be repudiated utterly)?

[Danube of Thought]

Porch, Raz has RR up 2 in Ohio now, and a very recent NC poll had them up 4 there.

[Extraneus]

Heh. Very colorful, Captain.

[Frau Heute blau und morgen blau]

Iggy - heh

Porch - please keep us informed of your father's prognostications.

[Porchlight]

Thanks DoT. The figures posted are the poll averages from Rove's map. So the OH number might inch up soon for Romney.

Frau, I will. Will send him those numbers and see what he says.

[Danube of Thought]

I think Romney needs to do what is necessary to win. Once in office, he can repudiate the Obama legacy by dismantling it in detail.

Obama gets a 2-point bounce in the Gallup head-to-head, 48-45.

[Porchlight]

That's pretty much where I am, DoT. First, get the guy out of there. Then we can talk about fixing it.

[Jane - It's gonna be a Tsunami in November]

Plus most people think of "transformational" as a good thing.

[Rob Crawford]

Plus most people think of "transformational" as a good thing.

Rot is transformational. Flame is transformational.

[Frau Verwandlung]

"Being in a better place" is transformational. Poor image with that one, Barry.

Franz Kafka's character Gregor experienced transformation, too.

[Frau Verwandlung]

Attending Pitzer College, on the other hand, is crippling.

[Frau Verwandlung]

The judge did not curtail the Democrats' right to vote *after* election day in order to win.

[bgates]

Don't bash Obama, don't even harp on how he's not up to the job -- that carries the implication that they should have known that when they voted for him.

Yes, Romney should concentrate on getting the same 47% of the electorate the Republicans got in 2008, rather than suggesting any Obama voters change their minds.

This is one of those bits of Republican Establishment Conventional Wisdom that has no corollary for Democrats, or anybody else who wants to win anything. Obama managed a successful incumbent-bashing campaign directed against a guy who wasn't even running again. We still joke about the phrase "blame Bush" because even now - three and a half years since he left office, eight years after he last ran for office - it's a pervasive idea. Not to say it's a persuasive idea, anymore, but it worked pretty well in 06 and 08.

But sure, let's try things like these fucking spineless nameless dickless aides want to.
"There's a well-educated man, a great father, and a true patriot running for President. In fact, he's already President. Unfortunately, through no fault of his own, some of his policies aren't working perfectly. Maybe the other guy might be a little better? Or not. Whatever you decide is fine. I'm Mitt Romney, and I'll approve this message if it's ok with the very popular President of the United States, Barack Obama."

[someone]

There's no way Mormon Mitt is losing Nevada.

[Frau Neinsagerin]

Yep, bgates. Isn't this a time for the naked truth to be spoken. We're broke. We're out of money. We cannot keep doing this.

Bernie Madoff was sent to the slammer for being a hoax. How much did he borrow from the Chinese clients?

[bgates]

"Mitt Romney spent the day on the defensive after running an ad that offered no compliments toward the President besides his education, fine family, patriotism, and popularity. 'In no way did I mean to suggest or imply that the four traits I mentioned were the only good things about our thoroughly honorable, admirable, and virtuous President. Unfortunately, the constraints of the tv ad - coupled, I will admit, with a desire to mention my own attempt to replace this internationally beloved figure - made it impossible for me to list everything about this man that I try to emulate in my own life.'"

[Porchlight]

Yes, Romney should concentrate on getting the same 47% of the electorate the Republicans got in 2008, rather than suggesting any Obama voters change their minds.

I don't think that's what it means. I think it means he would try to change their minds in a less confronational manner - "We gave him a shot, but Obama couldn't do the job, time to try someone else."

Not "Obama's evil and you're stupid for having voted for him."

That's an exaggeration to make a point, of course.

[JM Hanes]

someone:

"There's no way Mormon Mitt is losing Nevada."

On the one hand, the Mormon population in Nevada is not as big as a lot of people assume it is, and on the other you've got Harry Reid's corruptocrats and a powerful union presence. Don't count on Nevada being an easy get.

[DrJ]

OT, but if you enjoy the original Star Trek, go to Google's home page. Their (multi-part, with sound) doodle today is wonderful.

[Porchlight]

p.s. in case it wasn't clear in my 4:28, I do actually believe that Obama is evil and that people are stupid for having voted for him. I just don't know if telling them so is the best way for Team Romney or anyone else to go about changing minds.

[Danube of Thought]

At this point it seems to me we've got a good portion of our hopes invested in the notion that the polls are all using flawed turnout models. I am waiting for some of them to start converting to likely voter models with realistic turnout assumptions.when do you suppose that might occur? Early October?

[Jane - It's gonna be a Tsunami in November]

We're broke. We're out of money

That will come out as soon as Romney is inaugurated.

[Frau Neinsagerin]

DrJ - our sons and their German cousins watched faithfully and called it *lovingly* Star Dreck.

[DrJ]

Frau, I called it the same. Still, I've seen each episode many, many times. That helps with some of narciso's references!

[bgates]

We gave him a shot, but Obama couldn't do the job

"through no fault of his own". The dickless aides would want to be sure to include the phrase "through no fault of his own".

I'd rather use Obama's failure to take down the press. You, voter, you didn't know Obama was going to make all of these terrible decisions. Why weren't you told? Look at this week's NYT story about how much time he spends on sports and games - why wasn't this story published four years ago? Why weren't a lot of stories published four years ago?

Bash Obama, harp on the fact that he's not up to the job, assume the American people wouldn't make such a tremendous mistake if they had all the relevant information presented to them, and talk about why it wasn't.

[matt]

After what Obama did to the tourism business in Nevada, why would anyone in Clark County vote for him?

People need to be reminded of some of the very stupid and/or nasty stuff the man has said, and what he has done to various communities.

I haven't heard the Catholic Church lately and after that pro-abortion love fest I would think the Bishops have every right to condemn the Cuoma - Kennedy - Pelosi - Fluke - Biden apostates. Don't forget the whole First Amendment insult as well.

Or the masses of bitter clingers somewhere between Pittsburgh and Philly.

Or the GM & Chrysler pensions and dealership employees who got screwed.

In these kinds of close races, the politics of the personal is critical to gaining an edge.

Mitt doesn't have to stoop. He has surrogates to do so. Plaster stickers with the price of gas on 11-5-08 and 11-5-12 on gas pumps.

Remind the lefties of how Obama has failed them. There's plenty of disappointment and disillusion to go around.

And then there's health care, the economy, and all of the other issues. It is a target rich environment as the pilots would say.

[Porchlight]

For Frau,

Here's my dad's response:

I suppose I could figure out the arithmetic, but it seems to me that when you compare 2012 polls with 2008 actual by state and/or voter segment (white, men, young, etc.), Romney should have a four or five point lead. Some of these states like IN, WI, MI have large enough populations to make a difference and have a >10 point swing. Plus big red states like TX, MO and the southeast/south central (AL, GA, MS, LA, KY, TN, AR) are going to produce much bigger Romney majorities than McCain got in 2008. I don’t think big blue states like IL, NY and CA are going to improve on 2008. In fact, IL may be a smaller margin for O. Whites might hit 60% R (.6 x 75% of vote [white share] = 45% - a real base), youth is off 20 points for O. And then there is participation. All the “enthusiasm” polls show a significant swing for Reps. Ras had his first ever lead in Rep party identification. The Dems may be fired up after their convention, but many, many Reps and right leaning independents are going to be really, really pissed after the partisanship and gross distortions that were presented. White Rep turnout will be massive. That’s why I think Raul Rahe is on the right track in predicting a landslide (for me a landslide would be 53% or higher for R/R).

Here’s an attempt to do something like Rove does and gets about the same result. We know the Dems are worried about IA and CO since O has been there several times. The real surprise could be PA even though it has disappointed in several elections. But the coal mining issue could bring a big payoff in western PA and the voter ID plus Romney’s better appeal to suburban voters could limit the Dem upside in Philly. http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/09/02/polls-tightening/

[in response to my question about campaign ads in MN where my folks are:] I only watch national TV and haven’t seen any local ads. PowerLine says the counter attack the Reps are about to launch doesn’t include MN. More importantly, it doesn’t include WI, MI or PA. http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/09/open-thread-what-do-you-think-of-romneys-ad-blitz.php

[Janet]

Bash Obama, harp on the fact that he's not up to the job, assume the American people wouldn't make such a tremendous mistake if they had all the relevant information presented to them, and talk about why it wasn't.

Amen, amen, & amen!

[rse]

One way of getting it across to voters without making them think poorly of themselves for their decision in 2008 is to emphasize the reality of what the Belmont Challenge and the Future Earth Alliance will mean. That Building One America is a real agenda for the 2nd term and that we may all see the era of busing as being over but we are 1 vote on SCOTUS away from it being back.

The reality of SEL as the primary focus in education and the ways they intend to close the achievement gap. The actual template for higher ed and how the nature of college is to be radically changed even further so that the product of the SEL focused K-12 is still college ready.

Describe specific policies that are so troubling and that are easy to frame in ways that make their personal effects inescapable.

[Porchlight]

"through no fault of his own". The dickless aides would want to be sure to include the phrase "through no fault of his own".

bgates,

Wow, that sucks. I apologize - I didn't realize that was part of the messaage. That is very, very weak.

[Danube of Thought]

I see absolutely no reason for Romney not to go after him hammer and tong, and smite him hip and thigh. Hell, millions of people already feel stupid for voting for this mountebank; it's not Romney's job to persuade them otherwise. What unadulterated crap.

[Sara]

Could we please at least give Romney some credit for having a brain, very good people, and a campaign that has been about as close to flawless as any campaign. Not perfect, but pretty darn good.

The lie that Romney is pulling ads or not running ads in states like WI, MI, or PA is a lie generated by the left.

Today is the first day of an ad roll out. The first day Romney is finally able to dip into his huge warchest. They are starting with 15 ads, the majority of which are targeted to specific states in their message to those voters. And now that the dems have wrapped up, Romney is back out on the trail with an appearance in Iowa today and a big rally in NH later today.

The ads are available to watch. If you can't find them linked, you can always go to the Romney YouTube channel and watch. The Romney campaign is already addressing many of the things I see talked about here as things he should do, even though he is already doing it.

No one is asking anyone to like/love this candidate, but acting as if his campaign is as incompetent or even less competent than McCain's is not only unfair but wrong.

[bgates]

Porch, that's just my reading of the York piece that James quoted - in fact, the rest of the article is worse:

He has to assure them that they didn't make a mistake back then, that it wasn't crazy or stupid to believe Obama's promises, but that things just haven't worked out as they hoped

Maybe I just don't understand stupid people, but telling people Obama was the right choice in 08, and he'll continue to be the same guy in a second term, and therefore he should be replaced with someone else doesn't strike me as a winning argument.

I think the argument should be hey, soccer mom, if you hired a babysitter based on rave reviews from a neighbor or somebody at work and then came home from date night to find the babysitter had somehow overdrawn six trillion dollars from your bank account and convinced your family doctor to quit medicine, you hired a bad babysitter. That's a mistake! In fact that's one of two mistakes, both correctable: You hired a bad babysitter, so never hire her again, and you listened to bad advice, so seek advice elsewhere.