Evaluating The Romney Tax Plan, Or, The Impossible Becomes Possible So Who's Laffering Now?

Ezra Klein guides the unwary through the Tax Policy Center analysis of the Romney tax plan. The gist:

After running all the numbers under conditions that were very, very favorable to Mitt Romney’s tax plan, the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center concluded that there was simply no mathematical way for Romney to fulfill all his promises simultaneously.

Revenue neutral tax refomr means that there must be losers to offset the winners. If "the rich" get a net tax cut, then the non-rich must be lookign at a tax hike. Hence the "matematically impossible".

However! Princeton prof (and former Bush I and Bush II economist) Harvey Rosen begs to differ, noting that the TPC analysis relied on conventional "static scoring", where overall economic activity is not affected by the incentives or efficiency of the tax code. That is hardly helpful for a tax simplification and reform specifically intended to improve incentives and efficency and thereby increase growth.

Prof. Rosen presents numerous scenarios, but let's focus on one - with 3% "new" income growth, folk earning over $200k are not getting a net tax cut - their tax bill rises due to their higher income. Since they are not getting a tax cut, the lower earners needn't face a tax hike. Suddenly, the Romney miracle has become mathematically possible.

The TPC justifies their static scoring by citing sources explaining that improving tax efficiency doesn't really increase economic activity; Prof. Rosen cites other sources arguing that it does. Here is a puzzler from the TPC:

In the context of revenue-neutral tax reform, any positive growth effects are likely to be small. While the lower tax rates under the reform would strengthen incentives for employment and savings, the base broadeners would increase the portion of income that is subject to tax and have incentive effects in the opposite direction. As Brill and Viard note “lowering statutory tax rates while broadening the income tax base generally does not reduce work disincentives because it leaves the relevant effective tax rates unchanged” (Brill and Viard 2011).9 Moreover, analysis by the CBO and JCT suggest that the revenue effects arising even from rate cuts that were not accompanied by base broadening would be small (CBO 2003, 2005; JCT 2005).

Are Brill and Viard telling us that economic incentives are guided by average tax rates rather than marginal ones? Breakthrough stuff. Well, you could look it up, but I lack the time.

Comments

[Clarice]

Ezra or Harvey? Who to trust?

[James D.]

Ezra Klein is fairly high on my "lying asshole" list; it's getting longer and longer today...

[NK]

Ezra's mommy says he's very nice boy and can be trusted. "Ezra... stop playing with those bloggers and get in this house right now, young man."

[Melinda Romanoff]

Static?!?

They used static scoring to dismantle the game theory of tax rates?

Oh this is going to get interesting.

[AJ Lynch]

"Non partisan" Tax policy center. LMFAO.

[Theo]

I think Yogi Berra was right about this -- the future is one of the hardest things to predict. To try to guess the various interplays between incentives (lower rates) and disincentives (broadening the base) is probably pretty perilous.

But it would certainly be historic if a candidate offered a tax and spend plan that did not actually add up. Obama promised to cut the deficit in half in his first term and so far there are no consequences from his failure to do so (or even to present a budget that would have done so).

[matt]

So the Bundesbank is allowed to invest €190 Billion in the €500 Billion stability fund.

So if Spain caves in for €150-200 Billion, as can happen, and then Italy has to cave in for another €100-200 Billion and of course Greece, Portugal and various and sundry other sick economies have to ask for their own bailouts, what happens when the €500 Billion is inevitably breached?

Our own financial crisis accelerated with Bear Stearns and then Lehman Brothers into a $780 Billion rescue and then the Stimulus where a lot of that cash ended up in the banks.

The European banks are holding most of the bad Euro government debt that exists today with nowhere to offload it.

So the ECB steps in and buys this while also engaging in their own QE program. In the meantime our M2 money supply is climbing and there are rumors of a stealth QE 3.

Some of the money people are saying this will seal the deal for Obama.

[Frau Steueramt]

Wm. McBride of the Tax Foundation compared the Romney, Obama and Simpson-Bowles tax plans and did not come to the same conclusion. Among other shortcomings, he pointed out that Obama's plan would *never* balance the budget.

Overall, Romney’s tax plan makes important reforms that are likely to lead to lower deficits, an eventual balanced budget, and more economic growth.

LUN

[bgates]

The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center is apparently a joint effort of the equally nonpartisan Urban Institute and Brookings Institution. The nonpartisan Ezra Klein didn't mention that, did he?

[NK]

A friend of 33 years testifies to Congress-- no IRS Obamacare compliance audits....Hmmm.... if it's not a tax enforcement issue, how is a tax constitutionally? http://www.cnbc.com/id/48990224

[lyle]

Is the nonpartisan Ezra Klein even out of puberty yet?

[Frau Steueramt]

Ezra didn't know bgates would spill the truth.

[cathyf]

Look, if we dismantled the EPA, repealed all of the supporting laws and regulations, fired all the employees, razed the buildings, sowed the ground with salt...

...the resulting economic boom would turn the deficit into a surplus in no time!

But seriously, Ryan and or Romney need to stand up and say something along these lines:

Ok, people let's talk about "tax cuts". What we've had over the last four years is the Great Obama Tax Cut. That's what those 25 million unemployed people get -- they don't pay taxes because they don't have jobs! And the 30 million underemployed -- they pay a lot less taxes than if they had full-time jobs!

When we put a big chunk of those 25 million back to work, and a big chunk of the 30 million get full-time jobs, then they are going to be paying more money in taxes, too. I know that they will join us in saying, "HECK YEAH!"

[NK]

"Some of the money people are saying this will seal the deal for Obama." How exactly? The only 'real world' effect of QE3 is higher gas prices and eventually higher food prices. I don't think Joe Voter is very impressed if JPM SrVPs make their 3rdQ #s and get their bonus.

[Extraneus]

Breaking: Major Solyndra Figure in DoE Defies House Subpoena, Refuses to Testify

Democrats will be howling for this guy to be put in jail post haste. They can't allow this to set a precedent.

[Extraneus]

HHS Secretary Sebelius found in violation of Hatch Act

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius violated the Hatch Act in February when she called for re-electing President Obama during an official department appearance, the Office of Special Counsel said Wednesday. The finding could cost Sebelius her job.

Democrats will be howling for Sebelius to be fired post haste. They can't allow this to set a precedent.

[NK]

Sebelius pisses on the Hatch Act, This Crony defies a lawful subpoena... this isn't the Federal Gov't -- it's gangsterism. Vlad Putin is jealous.

[Extraneus]

FAA Officials in Violoation of the Hatch Act

It appears that Mr. Hickey may have violated any number of laws on the books protecting individuals from intimidation, interference, or coercion concerning their right to vote. It is the obligation of the election crimes division of the U.S. Department of Justice to investigate those matters. Furthermore, Mr. Hickey may have violated several Prohibited Personnel Practices (5 U.S.C §2302) including discrimination against employees based on political affiliation, as well as potential whistleblower retaliation.

Democrats will be howling for these people to be brought to justice post haste. They can't allow this to set a precedent.

[Jim,MtnViewCA,USA]

Those Dems are such sticklers, aren't they, Ext?

[GMax]

Ezra Klein is fairly high on my "lying asshole" list;

What he said X 2

[Extraneus]

They might not agree with the Hatch Act, Jim. Can you imagine Republicans having an advantage if government officials could campaign on official time? We'd need to deputize Citizens United.

[pagar]

Evaluating a plan for driving the getaway car. Looks like a successful plan!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-itaxes-vs-uncle-sams-friends-and-family-plan

"Yesterday, news broke that the US government has awarded a whopping $104 million to convicted felon and former inmate Bradley Birkenfeld.

It was a big headline and you likely saw the news… but it’s worth a deeper look. Because if there is one story that neatly summarizes what is wrong with the US these days, it is the case of Mr. Birkenfeld".

[Ignatz]

--The TPC justifies their static scoring by citing sources explaining that improving tax efficiency doesn't really increase economic activity--

No doubt they could come up with expert sources explaining that tax inefficiencies and higher rates don't decrease economic activity either.
Why must we live in a world with such dumbf***s?

[NK]

Ig-- they're not dumb&*$%s, these same TPC people swore to us that the STIMULUS! dollars had a multiplier effect that would explode GDP and job creation, so unemployment would NEVER exceed 8%... hey, hey...wait a sec...

[NK]

In other news, McCaskil 49%- Akin 43% likely voters.

[Ignatz]

--Ig-- they're not dumb&*$%s--

Good point, NK.
Must remember with leftists to turn Hanlon's Razor on its head and always attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

[Jim,MtnViewCA,USA]

Mish is a pro-RonPaul econ blogger whose political posts will drive you crazy. But, his econ posts are quite informative.
Check out the difficulties involved when growing a business in Italy.
These rules mean Italy has a plethora of micro companies.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/09/monti-warns-italian-unions-over-200000.html
"Once you hire employee 11, you must submit an annual self-assessment to the national authorities outlining every possible health and safety hazard to which your employees might be subject. These include stress that is work-related or caused by age, gender and racial differences. You must also note all precautionary and individual measures to prevent risks, procedures to carry them out, the names of employees in charge of safety, as well as the physician whose presence is required for the assessment.

Now say you decide to scale up. Beware again: Once you hire your 16th employee, national unions can set up shop. As your company grows, so does the number of required employee representatives, each of whom is entitled to eight hours of paid leave monthly to fulfill union or works-council duties. Management must consult these worker reps on everything from gender equality to the introduction of new technology.

Hire No. 16 also means that your next recruit must qualify as disabled. By the time your firm hires its 51st worker, 7% of the payroll must be handicapped in some way, or else your company owes fees in-kind.

Once you hire your 101st employee, you must submit a report every two years on the gender dynamics within the company."

[matt]

same in Sweden and many others in Europe. Sometimes the magical number is 5 employees.

Besides, they handicapped anyway. they're European. nyuck, nyuck nyuck....

[boatbuilder]

I'm no economist (I speak English), but if broadening the base is a disincentive to employment and savings, and lowering tax rates is an incentive, why don't Ezra and the Nonpartisans come out in favor of lowering tax rates and keeping the tax base as is to promote economic growth? I know that's not "static" or "revenue neutral" if looked at with (Alan's) blinders, but doesn't it sort of pull the rug out from under the whole concept of static scoring of tax proposals? And even I understand the fundamental difference between average and marginal tax rates. Surely they do as well and are pretending not to. I wonder why?

[Neo]

The clear message is that student loans present problems for some borrowers, though, at the same time, the analysis suggests that student loans do not yet impose a significant burden on society from their fiscal impact - even though rather stunningly the Federal government is now 93% of the market.

So this means that roughly $1 trillion of the $16 trillion debt is student loans.

[Jim Eagle]

matt & Jim,

Oh, you haven't seen anything yet. Try applying the Dutch construction union requirements to a hard money billion euro high speed rail project job.

You know the ones where they all take off the month of August as your schedule is calling for maximum track laying or tunneling or driving piles for the numerous bridges. Then you have the work rules on tools, equipment operations, lunches, breaks, child care (kid you not) and religious practices (the muzzies get a prayer break twice during the work period).

I used to joke in our risk assessment team meetings that in August I would bring in the Irish guys and for Fridays bring the same guys back from the pub.

[Ralph L]

why don't Ezra and the Nonpartisans come out in favor of lowering tax rates
Because they want to sell tax breaks, which are more valuable with high rates.

[cathyf]

Because they want to sell tax breaks, which are more valuable with high rates.

BING BING BING BING BING BING BING!!!!

Thread winner!

[RichatUF]

Because they want to sell tax breaks, which are more valuable with high rates.

Shoot cathyf beat me to it.

[Frau Lehrerin a.D.]

for rse:
Portland Oregon schools beat the drum for equity.
(Barf alert)LUN

[Sara]

Daddy: I don't know if you've seen Malkin go on a colossal rant tonight or not. I found it quite cathartic. I have been boiling mad all day.

Is there anyone alive, besides our liar-in-chief, who was unaware that on Sept. 11th all U.S. facilities around the world should have been on high alert? Perhaps if he had bothered to attend the intelligence briefings, he might have remembered.

And, btw, doesn't anyone else think that having our president sit down with someone who calls hims Pimp with a limp is a bit unseemly.

Please let Romney win. We so desperately need the adults back in charge.

[Sara]

Oops, wrong thread.

[dog pooper scooper]

You have written an incredible website.

[fdcol63]

Why does anyone give Ezra Klein any credibility on anything?

The guy is a moronic Leftist hack, just like Paul Krugman.

[GMAX]

Told Ya So! ( take a peek at RAS this AM ) and then forgive my gloat...

[Paula A]

RASMUSSEN POLL: ROMNEY JUMPS BACK INTO LEAD...

R: 47%
O: 46%

Developing....

http://www.drudgereport.com/default.htm

[henry]

Since the left cannot win, they still want to steal elections. The "nonpartisan" GAB lobbying the WI SC to wait until after the election to rule on Voter ID. Despicable.

[GMAX]

This is what DEMOCRACY looks like? To the sound of drums. Really.

[Captain Hate]

Ezra needs to run with scissors. Or chainsaws.

[pagar]

IMO, it should already be
R: 74%
O: 26%
I have no hope of understanding an American who would vote to continue the disaster we now are enduring.

[GMAX]

Embassies burning despite an apology speech from the smart diplomacy advocate, unions demanding more money and no accountability but never fear Zero can fall back on the economy as we are better off than 4 years ago right? Cue the ticker:

In a separate report, a sharp rise in gasoline costs drove up wholesale prices last month by the most in more than three years. But outside energy and food, price gains were mild.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 382,000, the highest in two months, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to show 2,000 more applications than previously reported.

Just go and take the progs in the Senate with you.

[GMAX]

IMO, it should already be
R: 74%
O: 26%

I see this a lot. While I understand the sentiment, you know what they call getting 55% of the vote in the USA? That's right, a blowout. In other words elections here are always relatively close. Zero will get 40-43% even if he takes off all his clothes and runs naked through the rose garden claiming his dog BO told him to do it.

[NK]

All true GMAX. Bam's absolute worst case floor is 43-44%. As you may remember, my guess is he gets 46+%.

[GMAX]

Well his worse case floor is slightly lower. Its about 37%. But that will take a wave of Republicans at the polls closer to the 4.5% advantage RAS found last month, than the R + 2 I have been predicting and the R + 3 Ballard has given you. I think the range of possible outcomes of the voter turnout within the first standard deviation ( 2/3rds likelihood ) to be R + 3 to D + 1. Anything outside of that will be due to a blackswan event, which we could be on the edge of right now in the middle east

[Ignatz]

-So this means that roughly $1 trillion of the $16 trillion debt is student loans.

Posted by: Neo | September 12, 2012 at 08:48 PM--

Not quite yet. Presently this is money owed TO the government in the form of a largely non performing asset.
Once Barry repudiates the student loans then it will be $1 trillion of our $17 trillion debt.

[NK]

Ig-- I've never taken seriously the suggestion that the Federalized student debt (BTW-- based on the federal takeove, SallieMae built a lovely new office complex right off I-95 in... Delaware, a little swag for Joe Biden) would be forgiven. maybe I should take it seriously. What if the debts are forgiven, what does that do? Why it shifts $1Trillion of debt to creditworthy TP who DID payoff student and other private debts. Bam to honest debtors-- SUCKAs!!

[OldTimer]

Barry sends out Hillary to push the administration line. ...Speaking as I type...sticking to the 'religion of peace' - free speech, referring to the stupid video as impetus for violence format. Giving accolades to the slain ambassador.

[James D.]

I see this a lot. While I understand the sentiment, you know what they call getting 55% of the vote in the USA? That's right, a blowout. In other words elections here are always relatively close. Zero will get 40-43% even if he takes off all his clothes and runs naked through the rose garden claiming his dog BO told him to do it.

I understand that. And I know we're a divided country. And that the MSM, whose reporters and writers and editors vote 90+% Dem, is working as an active propaganda arm of the Democratic Party. And that our education system, from kindergarten straight through graduate school, is indoctrinating students in progressive/Dem "values". And that our entertainment media does the same thing.

And yet, despite all that, I still don't understand it.

Gas is $4/gallon - double what it was when Obama took office! Unemployment is supposedly 8.3%, but everyone - even the most hard-code libs - know it's much higher. Everyone knows people who are out of work, who've been out of work for literally years. The real estate market is mostly a disaster cosst to coast. Students are leaving college with high 5 and low 6 figure debt to enter a job market with no jobs. We were taken to an undeclared war in Libya for no adequately explained reason, to no benefit, and our "allies" in that war just murdered a U.S. Ambassador, the first time that's happened since 1979. Our embassies are burning in two countries so far, with more probably to follow today. The President openly declared that he has the right to order the death of American citizens with no due process of any kind. The Justice Department gave thousands of illegal weapons to Mexican drug cartels either in the dumbest police operation of all time, or a deliberate scheme to gin up support for gun control. The Administration openly declares that it will ignore or override the express will of Congress, as well as statutory law and the Constitution. More Americans are in poverty than ever before. More Americans went on disability than got jobs over the course of this Administration. I could go on all day...

Please pardon my language, but: what the fuck more needs to happen for Zero/Dem support to go below 43%? Seriously. If 43% of the population will vote for this madness, maybe we really and truly are done as a country, and maybe we deserve to be.

[Captain Hate]

Goober Graham is on Laura Ingraham doing his usual mushmouthed song and dance.

[OldTimer]

Here is a clear picture of the Chinese economy:

CHINA CRASH 2012: Here's Why It's Finally Happening

LUN

[GMAX]

I refuse to be disheartened by a idiot minority. I suggest you adopt the same attitude.

[Threadkiller]

http://wtpotus.wordpress.com/2012/09/12/cover-up-over-obamas-eligibility-will-cnn-be-charged-with-rico/#more-16479

[Melinda Romanoff]

OldTimer-

Blodgett's Blotter (BI) is a cesspool of leftist spin and Citigroup-quality economic analysis (6 months late and always authored by Captain Obvious).

Please use the front page of the FT in the future. You will save yourself an enormous amount of time.

[Captain Hate]

Half the people in the country are below average.

[James D.]

What if the debts are forgiven, what does that do? Why it shifts $1Trillion of debt to creditworthy TP who DID payoff student and other private debts. Bam to honest debtors-- SUCKAs!!

Obviously this is just a way for Zero to try and buy votes, without regard to broader economic consequences or moral hazard.

But under a sane and non-criminal Administration, and IF a large-scale student-debt forgiveness was coupled with serious reforms of the student loan system so that students would no longer be able to go into 6 figure debt to major in Grievance Studies, AND the universities who raised tuition and fees at 2 or 3X the rate of inflation while progressively devaluing the education and the degrees they provided (especially those universities with 9 or 10 figure endowments) had to eat some of the costs as part of the deal...

IF all that was part of the deal, and if it was expressly done as a one-time thing, maybe with a one-time tax credit for people/families who had properly paid off their educational loans...I could see where a student loan forgiveness might not be the worst idea in the world.

But back here in reality, I agree, it's a scam to buy Dem votes and screw taxpayers, yeah.

[Extraneus]

maybe we deserve to be

It's hard to deny that a country who would enthusiastically elect the current regime has fallen pretty low on the deserving-of-greatness scale.

[NK]

JamesD-- yes it is a scam for many reasons. I doubt it will ever come close to happening, but remember who would be the biggest beneficiary-- BigEDU. That's right, the student debt bomb will bring down BigEDU's 10%yoy tuition hikes, and force layoffs of academics and worse college ADMINISTRATORS. They are a valued Dem constituency because of the indoctrination of the young they do. BAM is itchin' to give them this bailout.

[James D.]

NK, I agree.

Anything Zero does will be a straight-out bribe to favored constituencies, while the unfavored are stuck with the tab, without regard to future consequences or economic realities.

Standard Dem operating procedure, in other words.

[Ignatz]

--Shoot cathyf beat me to it.

Posted by: RichatUF | September 13, 2012 at 12:25 AM --

That sentence would have benefited from a comma or two, if only for Cathy's sake. :)

[Ranger]

Two simple proposals to fix the Student loan problem.

1) Establish a cap for non-dischargeable student loans for any 1 degree. You could be generous and phase in over time. Say, 60K starting next year, 50K the year after that. Work it down to 30K.

2) Force schools to assume the debt that is currently outstanding for their former students, and for all students that leave their schools in the future. The new debt cap limits would apply for those debts as well. That means that if a student has 80K in debt, they would be able to write off 50K, but still have to eventually pay off the other 30K. The loss goes to the univerisity, not the taxpayer. (But how do you get the schools to take this debt on I hear you ask... Simple, make taking on this debt a requirement for continued participation in the Federal Student Loan program.)

The result would be to pop the higher education buble overnight, since it is based on an essentially unlimited stream of "free" federal money. Put a cap on that "free" money, and the rise in tuition will end over night. Cut back significantly on the free money, and tuition will start going down.

[Jim,MtnViewCA,USA]

My brother forwards a link and recommends the book review comments here. Many more, a few snipped below.
http://www.amazon.com/Uranium-Ore/dp/B000796XXM/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top4
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Not very enrichment friendly
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This review is from: Uranium Ore
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[snip]
The quality of this Uranium is on par with the stuff I was bying from the Libyans over at the mall parking lot, but at half the price!

[OldTimer]

Shazzam..you're right Mel. I followed a link from the American Spectator and was taken in by the graphs and pictorial representations for the China story.

[Jim,MtnViewCA,USA]

Good rants in the comments.

http://houston.cbslocal.com/2012/09/12/endangered-eyeless-spider-indefinitely-delays-15m-texas-highway-project/

[Bill in AZ sez it's time for Obama/Holder murder trial in Mexico]

"what the fuck more needs to happen for Zero/Dem support to go below 43%?"

50+ years of commie indoctrination, as rse keeps hammering, forms the bias the MFM, the libs (BIRM), and the low info voters all swim in. As someone so aptly put:

"A fish doesn't know it's swimming in water"

Thanks to MFM, a week ago the low info voters learned the unemployment rate went down, Zero did great at the convention, Romney screwed up, and the Dow Jones is around 13000.

[NK]

Ig@10:54 Heh, Heh

[Frau Rudolf Diesel]

James D. - diesel is $4.50+ in my L.A. county area.

[OldTimer]

Folks, I don't think my BP can take much more from these IDIOTS. This appears to be a done deal.

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-bernanke-federal-reserve-stimulus-20120913,0,5863628.story

[Frau Spinne]

Who let the spiders out of the cave?
LUN

[Bill in AZ sez it's time for Obama/Holder murder trial in Mexico]

Waahoo! QE(n-1)!!eleventy!! Look at the DOW.
In a couple days RAS approval index will be -8 cuz Baracky reduced unemployment, told Romney how foreign policy is done, and the DOW is above 13000!

[dublindave]

Fed announces QE3 woooooooooo hhoooooooooooooooooo.... let's spend it all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[dublindave]

Hey fed.....send som da moni ole dubs way............woooo hooooooo!!!!!!!!!

drunk agin woooohooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DrJ]

New thread!

[Frau Spinne]

Gott sei dank... I hope Cleo sleeps it off here at the dead end.

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