Fun With Numbers

Folks who ought to know better stumble over the numbers behind Romney's defeat.

Times reporters Kevin Sack and Sarah Wheaton ponder the Republican coalition:

"Although the race was far closer than in 2008, Mr. Romney won two million fewer votes than Mr. McCain did against Mr. Obama that year. "

Count every vote! McCain's vote total *AS REPORTED* the day after the election was 56.9 million; by Nov 17 it had risen to 58.3 million and eventually settled at 59.9 million. Plenty of states take a while in counting all the votes.

The morning after the 2012 election Romney was credited with 57.4 million votes, exceeding McCain's initial total but trailing his final tally by 2.5 million. Less than a week later Romney's total has risen (at the Times) to 58.6 million, 1.3 million short of McCain's eventual total and ahead of McCain's interim total. (FWIW, CNN has Romney at 58,783,137 votes as of 11/12/2012 at high noon.)

The claim that Romney won "two million fewer" votes than McCain is already wrong; my guess is that Romney will eventually surpass McCain.

Maureen Dowd won't let reality interfere with her snark:

Team Romney has every reason to be shellshocked. Its candidate, after all, resoundingly won the election of the country he was wooing.

Mitt Romney is the president of white male America.

Maybe the group can retreat to a man cave in a Whiter House, with mahogany paneling, brown leather Chesterfields, a moose head over the fireplace, an elevator for the presidential limo, and one of those men’s club signs on the phone that reads: “Telephone Tips: ‘Just Left,’ 25 cents; ‘On His Way,’ 50 cents; ‘Not here,’ $1; ‘Who?’ $5.”

In its delusional death spiral, the white male patriarchy was so hard core, so redolent of country clubs and Cadillacs, it made little effort not to alienate women. The election had the largest gender gap in the history of the Gallup poll, with Obama winning the vote of single women by 36 percentage points.

Hmm. As to its target audience, I think Ann Romney ws meant to reassure women that a guy who didn't drink, didn't smoke, didn't curse, had stayed married to his high school sweetheart and was a good husband, father and provider maybe wasn't such an awful guy.

And did it work? Well, among white women, Mitt had roughly the same gender gap as that macho swaggering Texas cowboy, George Bush, back in 2004 against every woman's fave, John Kerry. Bush was the president of white women by 55-44 but won white men by 62-37, a gender gap of 7 percent; Romney is the president of white women by 56-42 and white men by 62-35, a gender gap of 7 percent.

Where Romney falls apart is in his appeal to ethnic women. CNN does not subdivide it here, but shows Bush losing non-white women by 24-75. That is despite Bush picking up 44 percent of the Hispanic vote (men and women) and 11 percent of the black vote.

Romney lost Hispanic women by 23-76 and black women by 3-96; compounding his difficulties, each segment was a larger share of the 2012 electorate. Further compouding his woe - in 2004, Bush's gender gap among non-whites was roughly 7 percent, equal to his white gender gap. Romney's gender gap among blacks was 9 percent and among Hispanics, 10 percent.

My impression is that Romney had a serious ethnic problem, not an unusual gender problem. But nothing can stand between Maureen and her fun. Her final stat - Obama winning the vote of single women by 36 percentage points - is especially unconvincing. Romney is president of married women, by 53-46. Obama swept single women by 67-31. However, my *guess* is that single women skew more towards blacks, Hispanics and the 18-29 year old demographics than the married women, so what looks like gender based strength may be driven by ethnicity.

(I should note that Romney won each white demographic sorted by age, but his margin among 18-29 year old whites was only 51-44. Assuming a 6 point gender gap as with the overall white group, Romney would be roughly tied with Obama among young white (and disproportionately single) women.

Well. As an older white woman Maureen is a bit of an outlier. On the other hand, Catholic went for Bush in 2004 and Obama this time, so Ms. Dowde has a demographic home there. Not to mention her spot as a big city, highly paid east coast lib.

Comments

[Threadkiller]

Numbers that are fun:

http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/10/01/birthers-arent-going-anywhere-update/

[Threadkiller]

"Obama Likely Won Re-Election Through Election Fraud
Excerpt Via Rachel Alexander @ Townhall

According to the Columbus Dispatch, one out of every five registered voters in Ohio is ineligible to vote. In at least two counties in Ohio, the number of registered voters exceeded the number of eligible adults who are of voting age. In northwestern Ohio's Wood County, there are 109 registered voters for every 100 people eligible to vote. An additional 31 of Ohio's 88 counties have voter registration rates over 90%, which most voting experts regard as suspicious. Obama miraculously won 100% of the vote in 21 districts in Cleveland, and received over 99% of the vote where GOP inspectors were illegally removed.

The inflated numbers can't just reflect voters who have moved, because the average voting registration level nationwide is only 70%. The vast majority of voters over the 70% level are not voting because they want to, they are voting because someone is getting them to cast a vote, one way or another. Those 31 counties are most likely the largest counties in Ohio, representing a majority of Ohio voters. This means the number of votes cast above the 70% typical voter registration level easily tops 100,000, the margin Obama won Ohio by."

http://obamareleaseyourrecords.blogspot.com/2012/11/townhall-obama-likely-voter-fraud.html?m=1

[Threadkiller]

Threadstarter?

[Danube of Thought on IPad]

"Birthers aren't going anywhere."

Just like all their lawsuits.

[Rob Crawford]

Can anyone tell me where there's a country that's not so wrapped up in identity politics?

When I was a kid, "content of character, not color of skin" was held up to be the ideal. We were told that was a truly American sentiment. Since this country seems to have abandoned that ideal in favor of parsing blood quanta and physical features to the point where "high cheekbones" is proof you're a particular "race", I'd like to find someplace without this perverse obsession.

[Sue]

"content of character, not color of skin"

And Mia Love and Allen West wonder why their skin color didn't help them. Well not really, but I'm wondering for them.

[narciso]

THey will pick the party apparatchik 7/10 times, the more ignorant the better.

[narciso]

The MoveOn ads with the Tourettes afflicted seniors, the Joss Whedom zombie apocalypse ads, it's not about facts (cue Maureen Dowd)

[Frau Zynisch]

"Everything is permitted to those who act in favor of the revolution." (1792-Collot d'Herbois at the French Convention)

"Whatever it takes." Markos Moulitsas

[rse]

Rob-in Australia and NZ, they use the aboriginal cultures to get to the exact same place that Blacks and Latinos are used as levers for in the US.

With ed being the largest driver for changing the culture and UNESCO having been created to do just that, change the culture of West away from individualism and free markets, there's a good reason for so much consistency.

If differences are real, the demand for equality forces the govt to be in charge. Much like former colonies determined to industrialize over night. That eco devt push necessitated state directed economies.

One full bookcase. Hooray!

[Clarice]

TM, that's a very useful analysis.

[Extraneus]

Let's face it. Before we can steer the ship of state, we need a candidate who can win the female vote.

(Posted in wrong thread.)

[Thomas Collins]

Extraneus, I suspect that for a good portion of the ladies here, there is no wrong thread for those posts. Likewise for gents and those Ignatz picture posts!

[Frau Zynisch]

For me, Mitt Romney is the president of adult Americans.

[Frau Zynisch]

Count every LEGAL vote.
FIFY

[Clarice]

Here's some more updated numbers:
http://babalublog.com/2012/11/actual-cuban-american-vote-result-romney-58-obama-42/

[Clarice]

Here's some more updated numbers:
http://babalublog.com/2012/11/actual-cuban-american-vote-result-romney-58-obama-42/

[matt]

Fabio for President?

I don't know where you get those pics, ext, but please, i just threw up a little bit in my mouth.

[narciso]

Yes, I fugured as much, Clarice,

For some unintentional humor;

http://thepage.time.com/2012/11/12/trust-andbut-verify/

[Gideon7]

We are seeing the victory of tribalism over individualism. E pluribus unum is for naught.

[Dave (in MA)]

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

[Sue]

Fabio could do no worse than what we have.

[sbw]

Those thin parodies of handsomeness corrupt the thread. They don't even demonstrate the Fibonacci series correctly.

[Captain Hate]

This didn't even take a week: http://tammybruce.com/2012/11/high-school-hockey-teams-told-to-dump-national-anthem.html

[jimmyk]

The claim that Romney won "two million fewer" votes than McCain is already wrong; my guess is that Romney will eventually surpass McCain.

With a roughly 5 percent increase in the voting eligible population from 2008 to 2012, merely probably surpassing the totals of an uninspiring candidate like McCain seems to fall short of expectations. All the slicing and dicing of demographic groups doesn't really change that. I wonder if a lot of people were persuaded by the media that Obama was a sure bet to get reelected.

[hit and run]

Let's face it. TM put up this post because he loves me.

[Captain Hate]

Tammy Bruce: Why is it that the only two people fighting for the integrity of the voting process for the GOP are Allen West and Mia Love; and why isn't the party helping them out more?

[Patrick Tyson]

Recorded votes have surpassed 2008 final vote totals in 7 of the 9 "contested" states. Ohio (where they're in court about what to count) and New Hampshire are currently down 329,260 and 5,096 respectively.

Delaware, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Carolina have also surpassed 2008 final vote totals.

Overall totals will be down some from 2008 and Romney will end up with many more votes than McCain when everything is officially reported next July.

Hi, Rick.

[jor]

If you take out the south --- where probably 90% of whites voted for Romney, your results would be very different. This also showed up a number of time in national polls. I haven't seen exits by region/race. Its really _southern_ whites that Romney is president of. My guess is in northeast, west coast, Midwest, Obama won slightly or maybe lost by 5 pts.

[Frau Zynisch]

Run, Tammy, run!

[Sue]

There's that racist south again. Not wanting to vote for a black man while screaming bloody murder that the black man in Florida is being robbed.

Idiot.

[jor]

Sue --- this is an empirical claim. I will go by whatever the data shows. And actually, that claim was wrong, I couldn't find it before, but I found it now. Exits do show race/state data.
Its here:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls

Unfortunately there are no southern states in exits. But even in Blue states, romney had the lead, although usu less closer to 5%

[Threadkiller]

"Birthers aren't going anywhere."

Just like all their lawsuits.

Posted by: Danube of Thought on IPad | November 12, 2012 at 12:52 PM"

Good one DoT. :-)

Birthers must have resorted to the safeguard that you have promoted since the beginning of our battles; the ballot box.

I wonder how many decided to not vote when Romney chose to shitcan an issue that 70% of Republicans and 40% of the country tales seriously.

[narciso]

Oh, frabjous joy;

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/11/12/nyt-ed-schultz-could-be-replaced-ezra-klein

[jimmyk]

Sorry, the increase in the VEP was probably more like 3%, but the point remains that Romney needs about 61 million votes just to do as well percentagewise as McCain. And McCain was running against Obama Superstar Who Would Unite Us All in World Peace, while Romney was running against a proven SCOAMF.

[Captain Hate]

Oh, frabjous joy

If I were to think about the implications of that, I'd be exerting more mental activity than both of them deserve.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I give jor considerable credit for correcting himself.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

TK, do you really think this election turned in any significant way on the birther/natural born citizen issue?

[Theo]

TM --

EXCElLENT point! All this talk about how Republicans have this big problem with women or with single women is just bunk. Republicans in fact have a big problem with MINORTITY VOTERS of any gender. Because minority women vote in greater proportions than minority men, this makes it look like there is a big gender gap.

In fact, among WHITE women, Romney won by a comfortable margin of 56-42%. The argument then shifts to single women. But an extrapolation of the exit polls shows that Obama won among white single women by the relatively small margin of 53% to 46%. And Romney won among married white women by the overwhelming margin of 63% to 35%.

Would it be better for the Republicans to get more single women voters? Yes, of course. But Romney did not lose because he lost single white women (who were about 15% of the voters) by 7 points. If he had won them by 50% to 49%, it would not have flipped even a close state like Florida, much less the election.

(Also, single women are likely to be younger than married women. Although Romney won among whites under 30 -- yes he did -- he did less well among young voters of all racial and ethnic groups than among older voters. Part of the reason that single women barely went against Romney was because of youth, not gender.)

The conclusion is that the "War on Women" rhetoric was a bust for Obama. All of the abortion talk at the convention and all of the emphasis on people like Sandra Fluke, ended up with Obama losing the white female vote by a good margin and barely winning the white single women vote.

Yes, Obama did extraordinarily well among minority women voters, but that basically had nothing (or very very little) to do with gender and just about everything to do with race and ethnicity.

Republicans are not going to get black female votes. It will be hard for them to get Latino female votes. The only available women votes for Republicans are among white women. Republicans already win this group handily. The talk of jettisoning Republican positions held for decades in order to go after the small group of single white women that Republicans did not get is just foolishness.

[maryrose]

TK:
How does taking a powder or taking your ball home instead of playing on the ballfield help get rid of Obama? Do they think now we will get answers? It just gives Barry Soetero 4 more years to thumb his nose at us wrt. grades college adnmissions, fake ss number and his sketchy birth certificate. Obama continues to conceal information about himself that doesn't jive with the image he wants to project. His first debate performance revealed his true self. His supporters have already excused that behavior as an outlier for him. The blind do not choose to see in this instance. Obama will fall eventually but these arguments you present will not topple him. The fact that he jokes about shows you he knows he is on solid ground here because no media will touch it. I ffel other areas will in time reveal him for the true fraud that he has been. My fear is that once revealed the public at large will not care ala Clinton. The basic standard of decent behavior in America has been lowered because of these 2 men. As for affairs ala Petraeus? This enhances his image with mosr people as he is now seen as a Playuh...

[narciso]

His policy positions don't seem to matter certainly;

http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/11/politico-wants-conservatives-to-stop-reading-alternatives-to-politico/

[maryrose]

Theo:
Excellent post. If immigration reform occurs we have one issue off the table for dems. I suggest we find core issues that are losers for dems and stategise how to hammer them in 2014.We can take the high ground on the economy and give a detailed plan on job training and providing good GED programs for latino and black students. I was pary of a program in the early 90's that was very effective. States can do this and trump Obama's measly Race to the Top program. Repub states hold the line on Bambi exchanges. Catholic organizations have their faithful support Catholic Charities and tell fed gov to shove it. Don't abide by rule threatening religious freedom. Force Bammy and Sibelius to shut down a facility and don't hire anyone who needs birth control .We recently had 20 some catholic churches reopen after being shuttered by our bishop. These parishes appealed to the Vatican and won. It took 2 years but they were victorious. One was a Hungarian parish totally funded by the people and some group in Hungary.Go outside the box. Make them bring lawsuits and publicize big guv beating up on small town America. It can be done.

[Threadkiller]

Yes, Ig, but in a much broader way. People went crazy when Mitt cracked the birther joke. Our side to the positive and their side to the negative. All the voters want is someone who will stand strong. Arpaio proved that.

Other topics went the same for Mitt. Bill Kristol and his ilk demanded that Mitt tone it down. So Mitt toned it down on everything. Benghazi went to shit for him. He took a beating on his tax records while saying nothing about any of Obama's records.

Not just "birthers" saw this as a weakness, the electorate as a whole did.

Obama played to win. Romney did not. A key part of creating a fan base, in sports, is the desire to the team to win, not settle.

I have not seen any polling that counters the notion that 40% of the people in this country think something is wrong with Obama's story. Kicking them in the nuts won't help your cause.

Joe Arpaio won, Mitt Romney lost.

[narciso]

Arpaio is an icon, like Nick Navarro was 20 years down here in Broward Cty

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/11/Will-Obama-Now-Tax-the-Internet

[maryrose]

TK;
So what you are saying is that because of some perceived "weakness" it was ok for them all not to vote handing the victory to Obama. The logic of that escapes me.

[OldTimer]

And now the secessionists want their say...

http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/11/white-house-website-deluged-with-secession-petitions-from-19-states/

[maryrose]

TK;
You are comparing a local race to a national one-apples to oranges. I don't buy it.

[Rick Ballard]

Hi Patrick,

I didn't realize totals would change after certification in December. Do you have a guesstimate on the VEP percentage?

[hit and run]

jimmyk:
Sorry, the increase in the VEP was probably more like 3%, but the point remains that Romney needs about 61 million votes just to do as well percentagewise as McCain.

To expand a bit on Patrick Tyson's comment, here are Romney's votes compared to McCain percentagewise in putative battleground states (my numbers and Patrick Tyson's don't always match):

NV +12.1% (Romney got 12.1% more votes than McCain)
WI +11.6%
NC +5.8%
CO +5.8%
IA +5.6%
NH +4.2%
MN +3.5%
VA +3.4%
MI +3.1%
FL +2.9%
...
PA -2.1%
OH -3.5%

The non-battleground states that make up the vast bulk of Romney's "missing" votes:

CA -21.9%
AZ -15.9%
NY -19.1%
NJ -15.9%

These four states are still counting votes. And they're pretty, um, big states. Those states combined are a 2.1M vote miss as of right now vs 2008. In total, Romney is down 1.2M vs McCain (ie, Romney up 900K in the other states combined). And Romney is now just under 3M votes shy of McCain +3%.

Probably won't get to that 61M. But he definitely exceeded McCain +3% in the overall swing states. Just not enough to actually, um, swing them (except NC!!!!). It's too bad you have to do such a thing to actually win elections, darnit.

[Threadkiller]

Maryrose, the GOP has taken a powder for four years on this issue. I don't see why the "silenced" majority* should feel any guilt at all. Would it have hurt at all for Levin, Hannity, Medved, Hewitt, Steyn, O'Rielly, Beck, or any of them to say "hey, let's put this up to honest debate in an open forum"?

In stead they demonized in the same fashion as their more liberal counterparts.

*I know majority is the wrong word, I was making a funny.

[Danube of Thought on IPad]

Rasmussen explains:

"Our final daily presidential tracking poll showed Romney at 49% and Obama at 48%. Instead, the president got 50% of the vote and Romney 48%. We were disappointed that our final results were not as close to the final result as they had been in preceding elections. There was a similar pattern in the state polls. For example, in Ohio we projected a tie at 49% but the president reached 50% of the vote and the challenger got just 48%. Although every individual result in the battleground states was within the margin of error, the numbers we projected were consistently a bit more favorable for Romney than the actual results.

"A preliminary review indicates that one reason for this is that we underestimated the minority share of the electorate. In 2008, 26% of voters were non-white. We expected that to remain relatively constant. However, in 2012, 28% of voters were non-white. That was exactly the share projected by the Obama campaign. It is not clear at the moment whether minority turnout increased nationally, white turnout decreased, or if it was a combination of both. The increase in minority turnout has a significant impact on the final projections since Romney won nearly 60% of white votes while Obama won an even larger share of the minority vote.

"Another factor may be related to the generation gap. It is interesting to note that the share of seniors who showed up to vote was down slightly from 2008 while the number of young voters was up slightly. Pre-election data suggested that voters over 65 were more enthusiastic about voting than they had been four years earlier so the decline bears further examination."

[maryrose]

I am convinced Obamacare in its present form will not survive. States have rights and when 28 of them are part of a lawsuit against it the program per se will not move forward.Waivers will be dissected and discussed, more lawsuits will follow. Let's go to the courts-it's the dem way...

[Danube of Thought on IPad]

Romney had to win 270 electoral votes. Joe Arpaio had to win a single county in Arizona.

[Threadkiller]

Arpaio was a national race held in a local election, maryrose. For the last 6 years Arpaio has been at the forefront of national attention. Lawsuits against him started under Bush. AB1070 was a local issue so why do I remember hearing so much about it?

If Arpaio lost we would here all about the success of the national referendum for the rights of the immigrant and how the birther theory is toast among voters.

You are kidding yourself if you don't think the race for Sheriff in the fourth largest county, by population, is of national interest.

[maryrose]

TK;
Your "silenced ones" have cost Romney the presidency. They wanted the perfect instead of the good or better than Obama. Their reward and I hope they enjoy it-Obama.
The issue itself is a loser.

[Danube of Thought on IPad]

"I have not seen any polling that counters the notion that 40% of the people in this country think something is wrong with Obama's story. Kicking them in the nuts won't help your cause."

I haven't seen any polling suggesting that anyone contending that Obama is not a natural born American citizen could win a single electoral vote.

[Porchlight]

maryrose,

I don't think there is as yet sufficient data to conclude that the population TK describes were the ones who stayed home/gave the win to Obama.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

TK,
I agree that playing nice and moderate is never a good strategy for Republicans and base that on actual electoral history, but I still have seen zero evidence that the single issue of Barry's birth/heritage was of any significant consequence whatsoever in the election.
IOW, had Romney really stepped up on this one issue and done nothing different he would still have lost. Had he stepped up on all other issues but not this one he might have won but even that is hard to judge.
Romney's prevent defense of a campaign in the final couple of weeks proved to be a strategic error and violated Al Davis's famous maxim which he himself spent the last couple of decades violating:
Just win, baby.

[Danube of Thought on IPad]

"Arpaio was a national race held in a local election"

The only people allowed to vote in it were the residents of a single Arizona county. There was nothing national about it.

[Threadkiller]

Danube, I have not seen any polling that suggests everybody answers polls.

[Rick Ballard]

Hit,

The AZ drop belongs to the idiot Libertarians who cost the GOP three House seats plus the Montana Senate seat.

[Threadkiller]

Danube states the obvious about who gets to vote.

[hit and run]

My problem with Ras's numbers was in the NC state polling.

First, the wild swing in Independents.

10/19 poll Romney winning independents 59-36
10/26 poll Romney losing independents 44-50

Ended up Romney 57-42

The other thing was, Ras was showing Romney at double digits in D voters.

10/19 poll had Romney at 17% of D voters
10/26 poll had Romney at 22% of D voters

But then, Ras wasn't the only one predicting a good D vote for Romney. PPP had Romney getting 19% of D's as late as 10/31.

Not a chance. Obama got 91% of the D vote -- higher than his 2008 percentage.

And that is how my predictions of a Romney blowout in NC got blowed up.

[Clarice]

Did we discuss this article?
http://townhall.com/columnists/rachelalexander/2012/11/11/obama_likely_won_reelection_through_election_fraud

[Threadkiller]

I not say the single issue, Ig.

I said it was much broader. Romney puts up a fight and gasses out early. Compare the first debate to the last. That is the weakness of Krauthammer's GOP. The birther stuff is an example of that weakness.

[Threadkiller]

I did not say...

[Danube of Thought on IPad]

"Danube, I have not seen any polling that suggests everybody answers polls."

What does that say about your "40%" poll?

Do we know how Leo Donofrio voted?

[Danube of Thought on IPad]

"The birther stuff is an example of that weakness."

It's an example of a far more serious kind of weakness, one that is apparently incurable.

[Threadkiller]

At least I know Scott Walker's election was a local issue of no consequence to the nation.

This is pissing me off, and I don't want to lose friends here from it, so I am taking a break to cool down a little.

Sorry if I dealt any low blows to you guys and gals.

[Threadkiller]

Danube, on the other hand, does want to lose friends.

[Threadkiller]

"What does that say about your "40%" poll?"

It means we have to accept it with the same grain of salt we use to accept other polls.

Since you have seen no other polls to the contrary, and your question about mythical polls is irrelevant, I have nothing to refute the data.

[Danube of Thought]

WaPo, August 19 2010:

The number of Americans who believe -- wrongly -- that President Obama is a Muslim has increased significantly since his inauguration and now accounts for nearly 20 percent of the nation's population.

If Romney had only gone after those folks he'd be president-elect today. But he was too weak...

[Danube of Thought]

At least I know Scott Walker's election was a local issue of no consequence to the nation.

It certainly was of no consequence to Ohio.

[narciso]

Arpaio was the target of a nationwide effort among the Latino community, because he followed the law, meanwhile Dupnik's malfeasance is rewarded.

[Sue]

jor,

It wasn't because of race. It was because Obama is a liberal. John Kerry didn't win these states either. Once again. Race has nothing to do with why liberals don't win in southern states.

[Danube of Thought]

Sorry, TK--didn't see your 3:09.

[Threadkiller]

Did you call Rove for your out dated polling?

In June of this year it was down to 11%. Big whoop!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/155315/many-americans-cant-name-obamas-religion.aspx

Find me a 40% group he alienated and we will talk.

[Clarice]

Now that I think about it--having studied Ext's postings a bit--I do think Fabio would be a dynamite candidate.

[Threadkiller]

I am sorry too. I though you did see it, and this is where you wanted to take it.

I am always up for a good battle with you, Danube. I am a little too on edge right now.

[Threadkiller]

Though = thought.

Ugh

[Chubby]

lol Clarice!!!! I hope your next Pieces promotes that idea.

[Extraneus]

Would he be able to excite the ethnic female vote, Clarice? That's the question. He's Italian, isn't he?

[Janet]

from Clarice's 2:57 link -
"Aiding Obama's win was a devious suppression of the conservative vote. The conservative-leaning military vote has decreased drastically since 2010 due to the so-called Military Voter Protection Act that was enacted into law the year before. It has made it so difficult for overseas military personnel to obtain absentee ballots that in Virginia and Ohio there has been a 70% decrease in requests for ballots since 2008. In Virginia, almost 30,000 fewer overseas military voters requested ballots than in 2008. In Ohio, more than 20,000 fewer overseas military voters requested ballots. This is significant considering Obama won in both states by a little over 100,000 votes."

[jimmyk]

But he definitely exceeded McCain +3% in the overall swing states.

Fair enough, but the declines in OH and PA were particularly crushing. It's easy to cherry-pick, but those two plus FL would have swung the election.

[Extraneus]

Hey, what's Ricardo Montalban doing these days? Surely he'd get their ethnic lutes going.

Nah, too old. How about this guy?

[(A) nuther Bub]

Now that I think about it--having studied Ext's postings a bit--I do think Fabio would be a dynamite candidate.

Fabio is not native born. TK's not gonna go for it, Clarice.

[OldTimer]

I can't seem seem to get off the what if wagon, re the Petraeus-Broadwell story. It doesn't make any sense to me.

So.....what if the whole scandal isn't a scandal at all (there was never an affair), but instead a plan devised by the General, Broadwell and Kelley, with Holly Petraeus included, to bring attention to the situation in Libya. What if Petraeus has been totally against the Benghazi operation all along, as devised by the Obama-Clinton-Jarrett, et al faction.

Petraeus is a master analyzer and planner - he would need something huge and bombastic in order to steer the corrupt MSM eyes onto the massacre at the consulate, and then keep their attention on that target long term.

So, now that that's off my mind...I'll go put the meatloaf in the oven. :)

[Clarice]

Seriously,I've brought my keen political analysis arts to bear on the question and it's FABIO for president.

We'll have the debates moderated by the folks who do American Idol and the serious interviews by The View. WH, here we come!

[Rick Ballard]

Dunno, Clarice. The way our luck is running, Fabio is probably either gay as a pocket full of rainbows or a closet Tickle Me Elmo fan.

[Clarice]

Who'll dare speak against him, Rick, It would be like letting people know about the real background of The Won. There's precedent for this sort of thing you know.

[Chubby]

someone needs to write a blockbuster romance about an earnest young Democrat woman who is swept off her feet by a gruff Republican who seems so cruel and mean and dismissive at first -- until she gets to know his *real* fabulosity... think of all the political ideas could be inserted subliminally between the heavy breathing episodes. Where is Barbara Cartland when we need her?

[hit and run]

Is it just me, or does Ext really seem to relish posting pics of half nekkid dudes.

I do note that centralcal hasn't complained about the pics during work hours though.

[Clarice]

When it's directed at the womens, hit, it's officially "soft porn" and kosher even at checkout counters where kids are looking for candy to cry about.

From BOTW:

Hounshell observes that Broadwell's "most interesting revelation is her claim that the CIA was holding several Libyan militia members prisoner, which may have prompted the attack." The Daily Beast's Eli Lake reports the agency denies this: "The CIA has not had detention authority since January 2009, when Executive Order 13491 was issued. Any suggestion that the Agency is still in the detention business is uninformed and baseless."

Fox's Jennifer Griffin, however, has sources who confirm and expand on Broadwell's account:

A well-placed Washington source confirms to Fox News that there were Libyan militiamen being held at the CIA annex in Benghazi and that their presence was being looked at as a possible motive for the staged attack on the consulate and annex that night.
According to multiple intelligence sources who have served in Benghazi, there were more than just Libyan militia members who were held and interrogated by CIA contractors at the CIA annex in the days prior to the attack. Other prisoners from additional countries in Africa and the Middle East were brought to this location.
The Libya annex was the largest CIA station in North Africa, and two weeks prior to the attack, the CIA was preparing to shut it down. Most prisoners, according to British and American intelligence sources, had been moved two weeks earlier.

[Clarice]

"Where is Barbara Cartland when we need her?"

What am I , chopped liver? A potted palm?

Ripped bodices are my super speciality..(Although Francis King who did at one time write real porn for a living, reminds us that Wuthering Heights was responsible for the death of more good women then the cholera.

[hit and run]

jimmyk:
It's easy to cherry-pick, but those two plus FL would have swung the election.

Don't disagree one bit. My numbers aren't intended to make Romney out to have done well, and especially not to make it appear like he succeeded.

Even if he surpassed the 3% increase in the others, that's not how we keep score in elections. A 12% increase don't mean a thing if it still leaves you behind your opponent.

Elections don't have a Most Improved Player award.

Romney fell short.

But I just want to put context around the national vote being lower than 2008.

[Extraneus]

I'm dead serious, hit. We need to learn from the polls. We need a man who can get the ladies to pull that lever.

[narciso]

One has to take care with Hasting's account, since he has a jaundiced perspective, with a tendency to embellish, and an almost naive attitude to the Salafi,

[jimmyk]

And has Paul Ryan just been forgotten?

[MarkJ]

Maureen Dowd: Reason enough to hope NYC gets hit with another storm.

[samijack]

OldTimer: Your 4:09p.m. post is EXACTLY how I see the whole Patreus/Broadwell "affair". I am a lurker but have been following all your theories on this and finally found someone who sees it the same way I do.