Reports Of Republican Turnout Demise Are Premature

Inshallah! John Podhoretz searches his memory and provides a highly plausible answer to a vexing question, to wit, where did the Republican voters go?

As I write, Mitt Romney has 57.4 million votes. John McCain ended up with 59.9 million. It’s a little noticed fact that in two weeks following every presidential election, votes continue to be reported…by the millions. As I recall, Barack Obama got something like four million more votes in the weeks after election day, while John McCain got two or three million. It’s likely that by Thanksgiving, the final vote tally will show Romney very close to or even slightly exceeding McCain’s total.

I have more confidence in Mr. Podhoretz's memory than I do in my own. However, trust but verify!

Wikipedia gives McCain's 2008 final vote total as 59.9 million.

However, this cool NY Times graphic had McCain at 58.3 million as of Dec. 9, 2008.

CNN had McCain at 58.3 million as of Nov 17. However!

Yahoo preserved a Q&A from right after the election, with an answer that linked to the CNN site above:

Electorial Votes:

Obama: 349
McCain: 163

Popular votes:

Obama : 64,639,738
McCain: 56,899,510

Source(s):

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results…

Given the Electoral totals I infer that North Carolina had not yet been called for Obama nor Missouri for McCain. Each man received about 2.1 million votes in NC, so McCain's total of 56.9 million must include some North Carolina votes (or else it would have jumped by 2.1 million to 59 million after N Car was called.)

So, if current reporting has Romney with 57.4 million popular votes, he is running a bit better than McCain's immediate post-election total. Wave the hangmen away from the Romney GOTV effort!

EXIT POLLS: Here are the WaPo and CNN versions of the exit polls.

Comments

[centralcal]

Interesting and thanks for looking into and posting that!

[MarkO]

I feel much better now.

[maryrose]

TM: Great catch and yes ultimate ly we will see a larger number of votes for Romney, including an estimate of the military vote that was not counted or was somehow "conveniently lost" by our airplanes or foolish persons throwing them out.

[hit and run]

And note that in the 24 hours since Podhoretz (TM check your hyperlink there, it has a "v" at the front making it inoperative) wrote his post, Romney has gained nearly a half a million votes -- I now show him at 57.9M

For the quick math...

According to exit polls, R's made up 32% of both the 2008 and 2012 elections.

Right now, the election looks like it is 10M votes shy of 2008 overall.

That's 3.5M fewer R's.

Romney got 93% of R's vs 90% for McCain.

That means as of right now Romney got 2M fewer votes from R's than McCain.

Again, that's before all the votes have been counted.

Another example, in NC they've added ~20K votes to both Romney and Obama's totals since yesterday.

[Threadkiller]

Clarice:

. HOW IS THE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE ELECTED?

Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution states, "The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers."

Although the Constitution does not require the Speaker to be a Member of the House, all Speakers have been Members.

When a Congress convenes for the first time, each major party conference or caucus nominates a candidate for Speaker. Members customarily elect the Speaker by roll call vote. A Member usually votes for the candidate from his or her own party conference or caucus but can vote for anyone, whether that person has been nominated or not.

To be elected, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of the votes cast—which may be less than a majority of the full House because of vacancies, absentee Members, or Members who vote "present." If no candidate receives the majority of votes, the roll call is repeated until a majority is reached and the Speaker is elected.

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/memberfaq.aspx

[Threadkiller]

I pointed this out yesterday, TM. San Diego county had 475,000 absentee ballots that had not been counted as of noon yesterday. They don't expect to have them done until Friday and they don't have to certify until Dec 4th.

[narciso]

You remember the tale of the frog and the scorpion;

http://www.jammiewf.com/2012/cory-booker-weighs-run-against-christie/

[Some Guy]

Thanks TM, I was just about to post on the other thread that the numbers are a little early for all the "X didn't do Y" or "it's [insert name]'s fault" stuff.

[Jim Eagle]

Only Powerline (John Hayward) and I guess our own ChaCo are even mentioning the M word as to where those other white guy voters were on Tuesday.

M=Mormonism

Hayward is right. You won't see an analysis based on religious prejudice in the MSM.

[Jane - Mock the media]

IRan shot down one of our drones on Nov 1st. WH covered it up - as usual.

[Captain Hate]

IRan shot down one of our drones on Nov 1st. WH covered it up - as usual.

I'm beyond wondering if that could've made a difference. Under an informed electorate, the race should've been a landslide for Romney.

[Rick Ballard]

Ohio Two Party Splits (Ohio SoS)

President
2008 R 2,677,820
2008 D 2,940,044
Total. 5,617,864

2012 R 2,584,620
2012 D 2,691,861
Total. 5,276,481

House
2008 R 2,493,810
2008 D 2,749,799
Total. 5,243,609

2012 R 2,971,073
2012 D 2,320,583
Total. 5,392,790

The Ohio 2012 GOP turnout for the House implies reports of its demise may be premature. The 2012 results are not final but the two party disparity will not change in any material manner.

I apologize for the lack of precise polling results to confirm this simple enumeration.

[Threadkiller]

The Bradley Brigham Effect.

[bio mom]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106.html
Was this posted already?

[narciso]

Ah, LaTourette, always being 'helpful', like a shiv in the back,

[James D.]

Rick,

Those OH numbers make no sense whatsoever.

More people, overall, voted for their Congressional race than for President?

And over 400,000 people voted for a Republican congressman but also for Obama over Romney?

I will never, ever understand my fellow citizens.

[Jim Eagle]

TK,

;>)

[Porchlight]

JiB @2:49,

You almost wonder if there might have been a little whisper campaigning going on.

[James D.]

I almost hate Harry Reid more than ero:

“The president campaigned around the country saying, ‘We know what the problems are with this fiscal problem. We just need some revenue,’” Reid said. “That was the issue. The mandate was look at all the exit polls, look at all the polling, the vast majority of the American people, rich, poor, everybody agrees that the rich — richest of the rich have to help a little bit.”

We just need more revenue, says Harry.

Please, God, let Boehner stand firm and give these bastards nothing. Let everything go off the cliff.

[Jim Eagle]

Porch,

Didn't we have some discussion about Mormonism and its voter appeal or dis-appeal back during the primaries? I think Sara, GMax and Iggy got into a really heated discussion on it but I could be wrong.

[Joan]

OT (and I apologize): 1. to Gus: I hope you didn't think I was not taking Benghazi seriously yesterday evening. I tacked my reference to it in a comment just after I'd been silly about other things. I want heads to roll over Benghazi--nothing is more important to me and dearer to my heart than Americans serving their country. 2. to Matt: I thought you made a comment in reference to my Benghazi post, and in checking see both comments were from Gus.

Sorry again about going off comment, but I enjoy everyone on jom and your intelligence and wit and don't want anyone to think I take events like Benghazi lightly.

[narciso]

No, you're right, JiB, and I recall in response to a particularly hypocritical
Times column, by one who had little qualms
with Obama's idiosyncratic faith patterns, and all too understanding of Islamism,

[henry]

O/T. rse, have you run into anything troubling by Peter Salovey? He just got selected as next president of my alma mater.

[hit and run]

bio mom:
Was this posted already?

Had read that a little while ago. I've got slightly different numbers than Trende (NYT and CNN show the 2008 exit polls with whites at 74% of the vote, for example; and my final 2012 numbers are slightly different than his).

McCain won whites 55-43 and Romney 59-39.

The White Vote:

2008
Total: 97,231,553
DEM: 41,809,568
REP: 53,477,354

2012
Total: 91,916,996
DEM: 35,847,628
REP: 54,231,028

Variance
Total: (5,314,557)
DEM: (5,961,939)
REP: 753,674

Romney will get more white votes than McCain did.

I would like to apologize for seemingly arriving at such precise numbers* using polls to get there , but I won't. Except to Rick Ballard. That's just how I roll.

-------------------
*Heck, at least I didn't include numbers out to two decimal places like Trende. Where do I go to find .24 of a voter?

[James D.]

JiB - maybe our side ought to just start loudly accusing the Dems of being bigots against religion, and having run an underground "dog-whistle" campaign to slander Romney based on his faith.

Why not? According to them, everything conservatives say or do is based on racism, and enough of our candidates have been so cowed by false, dishonest accusations of racism time after time.

Let's give some of it back to them.

[hit and run]

and my final 2012 numbers are slightly different than his

I had put that in earlier, and then went back and lined my 2012 numbers to his...but didn't edit out that remark.

[narciso]

Well henry this suggests a little warning;

http://salovey.socialpsychology.org/publications

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Porch,

Didn't we have some discussion about Mormonism and its voter appeal or dis-appeal back during the primaries? I think Sara, GMax and Iggy got into a really heated discussion on it but I could be wrong.

Posted by: Jack is Back | November 08, 2012 at 03:20 PM--

I got into a difficult conversation or two on the actual theology of Mormonism.
I never saw much evidence it would make a significant difference re voter appeal and still haven't.

[narciso]

Not too mention his main site;

http://salovey.socialpsychology.org/research

[Porchlight]

I haven't seen much evidence, either. But I just don't know how to account for the missing votes.

[henry]

Thanks narciso. Even worse than the last guy (whose actions convinced me to stop sending money to them).

[narciso]

I don't think there's been a good one since Papa Giamatti, and that was how long ago,

[Rick Ballard]

"but also for Obama over Romney?"

James D.,

I don't believe the enumeration supports that hypothesis. Obama received 248K fewer votes in 2012 while Romney received 93K fewer than McCain. The 429K drop in total Democrat House vote is (IMO) the most interesting aspect because it suggests the Democrats have achieved a true Pyrrhic 'victory'.

[Jane - Mock the media]

maybe our side ought to just start loudly accusing the Dems of being bigots against religion, and having run an underground "dog-whistle" campaign to slander Romney based on his faith.

I think we should accuse them of racism every time they agree with Obama. Obviously they all hate white people.

[Sue]

My personal opinion only:

Romney had a difficult primary where he was attacked by members of his own party for exactly what Obama continued attacking him with after the primaries ended. He wasn't able to overcome the Bain Capitol, out of touch with middle America, sending jobs overseas, rich man.

But I said yesterday and I continue to believe that no one we had running was going to beat Obama.

[Porchlight]

Primaries are a bitch. Lot of 'pubbies are going to find that out if they bend over to Dems in the next 2-4 years.

[Dublindave]

"Maybe our side ought to just start loudly accusing the Dems of being bigots against religion, and having run an underground "dog-whistle" campaign to slander Romney based on his faith."

Yeah, but the reality is that Dems didn't touch his his crazy ass cult-err-I mean religion, the returns showing an improvement in White Christians numbers compared to 08.

Let me guess-you want to know what 'reality' is?

[Extraneus]

I love the unfriending stories.

[hit and run]

Porch:
But I just don't know how to account for the missing votes.

What missing votes?

2008:
Barack Obama: 69,498,215
John McCain: 59,948,240

2012 So far:
Obama: 60,786,989
Romney: 57,890,120

Sean Trende's piece estimates 7M more votes to be counted. If that many votes are added, and they break evenly with the vote so far (50.4% Obama, 48.0% Romney), we'd get to this:

2012 End Result:
Obama 64,316,389
Romney 61,251,520

Variance:
Obama: -5,181,826
Romney: 1,303,280

Romney would exceed McCain's vote by 1.3M.

That is kinda the point of TM's thread, afterall.

Maybe Trende is overestimating the remaining votes. Maybe the remaining votes will lean more heavily to Obama. I don't know.

But there aren't any missing votes at this point except the ones that have yet to be been counted.

[James D.]

Rick,

Was I misreading? This is what I was looking at:

House
2012: R: 2,971,073

President
2012: R: 2,584,620

Almost 400,000 less R votes for President than for the Congressional Rep in 2012.

[James D.]

Dudu, go fuck yourself.

[henry]

Narciso, I was there for Giamatti's first 3 years. He was good.

[derwill]

duda came on this thread the day before the election and spewed a bunch of Mormonism is a cult vomit. I remember because I called him on it, even if it was kind of lame--as most of the vomit he spews is.

[narciso]

The party that booed when the simple statement of affirmation of God, was reintroduced into the party platform,

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I actually agree with weeDavey on this, although I think Barry wisely stayed far away from Romney's faith not because of any innate decency but because he knew any such talk would inevitably lead back to the right reverend Jeremiah "Leroy" Wright and his Church of What's Happening Now.

[hit and run]

If 4.25M more votes are added, instead of Trende's 7M, at the 50.4 to 48% split, Romney would equal McCain.

If 5M more votes are added, Mitt would only need 41% of them to equal McCain.

etc.

[Dublindave]

"Dudu, go fuck yourself"

Well, that wasn't very nice, James.

Falsely accusing an opposition political party of religious bigotry isn't going to help you understand WHY you lost a Presidential election. I'm just sayin.

Nicole Wallace nails it-it's time to stop being 'the stupid party'.

[narciso]

He did, but his surrogates didn't, from the character from 'Their Will be Blood' (Reid)
to Cher, it's a narrow spectrum of stupidity,

[rse]

http://www.eiconsortium.org/members/salovey.htm is my contribution. Just saw narciso hit the relevant details too.

CASEL actually started at your alma mater before moving on to Ayers world. It is based in James Comer's work originally.

All of this is consistent with working on attitudes and feelings and interpersonal connection to jointly problem solve whatever is wrong with world.

My am just took $45 million from the tobacco magnate Endowment to revise the nature of liberal arts education around interdisciplinary learning and working with profs to develop solutions to the world's problems. They were so proud of their 1st female Pres they did not listen to the significance of her repeated statements she was a feminist and humanist. Plus I think the search firm left off her inviting Angela Davis to be a keynote speaker.

They need all the big name schools on board so their grads will be on board. Capitalism 3.0 as Otto Scharmer calls it.

[narciso]

A good sign, thanks Rse;

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/source-allen-west-now-leads-initial-vote-count-in-one-fla-county/

[Rick Ballard]

James D.,

You have to separate 'votes for Republicans' from 'Republican votes'. There were around 1.5 million votes cast by Independents in Ohio. The results for State Senate and House contests indicate strong support for GOP candidates by Independents, the results for President and Senate indicate strong support for a very divided government.

[rse]

http://mindfulconstruct.com/2009/03/31/salovey-mayer-on-emotional-intelligence-1990/ . The 1990 date is significant. He was thus an early creator of what has now become the planned focus of K-12.

My beloved SEL.

[jor]

TM -- when can we have expect your post welcoming your new overlord Nate Silver?

Karl Rove -- WRONG
Barrone -- WRONG
Morris -- WRONG
Will -- WRONG
RASMUSSEN -- WRONG on every critical state

Silver -- 50/50 States
TPM -- 49/50 states

Thats what happens when you guys deny reality and try to "un-skew it". I can help you guys join the reality-based community, just let me know when you're ready

[Stephanie]

And the assholes on FB were always peppering their remarks with 'maybe his magic underwear will help' or other sarcastic put downs.

Generally those same assholes also have a problem with the religious of ALL faiths. I am agnostic and am proud to align with the faithful. Just because something derives from religion doesn't make it automatically worthy of derision.

[Threadkiller]

Shit candidates leave us watching a race between McCain and Romney.

I hope Romney beats McCain, FWIW.

[Porchlight]

But there aren't any missing votes at this point except the ones that have yet to be been counted.

Well, first, we'll have to see if Trende is right.

Second, there is the indy problem. McCain lost indys by 8 points and got 60 million votes.

Bush lost indys to Kerry by 2 points and got 62 million votes.

Romney won indys by 2 points according to what we know, and may or may not make it to 61 million.

My math sucks but as best I can figure it, that would put Romney at a lower percentage of Rs than either McCain or GWB.

And that doesn't even get to the Dem crossover problem. If more Dems crossed over to Romney than to Bush or McCain, it drops Romney's R percentage even lower.

[MAM]

From radio host and columnist for the Boston Herald, Howie Carr:

When I was a kid, I used to watch "McHale's Navy" on TV. Remember Tim Conway -- Ensign Parker? He had a saying that I've never forgotten. "Cheaters never prosper." Even at the age of 10 or 11, I didn't buy it. There was altogether too much evidence to the contrary, starting with the president, LBJ. And since then, the evidence that cheaters do prosper has only continued to pile up... and up... and up. Cheaters never prosper? Tell it to Bill Clinton. And just this year, to the fake Indian, Granny Warren. She never prospered until she started cheating. But what happened yesterday was so much more than Elizabeth Warren. Barack Obama didn't deserve to be reelected, and please, don't tell me to take solace in the fact that he only got 50 percent of the vote, or that 13 million fewer people voted yesterday than in 2008. All his life, Mitt Romney has tried to do the right thing, he's given millions to charity, he's been the bishop of his church, he's tithed, he worked for nothing as governor of Massachusetts. He's led an exemplary life, words I don't use very often. On the other hand you have the community organizer, who's always skated along unchallenged, relying on affirmative action to propel him to the next level. John Sununu Sr. is right about him -- he is lazy. Not to mention ignorant. Nothing was ever expected of him, and he delivered... nothing. And now he's been reelected, along with his senile vice president, Joe Biden, a plagiarist like Granny Warren. Then there's Johnny "Pockets" Tierney. I had dinner last week with an old-line Boston pol, a former statewide officeholder, and he told me, "If Tierney can get reelected, it means nothing I know about politics applies anymore." Well, guess what? My congressman in Florida, Allen West, is black, a war hero, a retired colonel, smart as hell. After a single term in the House, he was defeated by a punk who at the age of 19 was arrested by the Miami Beach cops for public drunkenness, and then took a few swings at the police. At the same time this Murphy was legless on North Collins Ave, West was preparing his troops to fight in Afghanistan. But George Soros gave Murphy millions upon millions, just to destroy West, to end his political career just as it was beginning. Now the MSNBC liberals are going to lecture us that Republicans have to be a kinder, gentler party. More handouts, more illegals, fewer cops.... It's not going to work. To paraphrase Harry Truman, "If you give people a choice between a Democrat and a Democrat, they'll pick the Democrat every time." I fear that what we need to turn this country around is what we're going to get, probably sooner rather than later -- an economic collapse. As Dr. Johnson said, Nothing concentrates one's mind like being hanged in two weeks, or being in a soup line, with hyperinflation and 50 percent unemployment and God only knows what other disasters await us courtesy of Obama and the Democrats. I'm glad it's slate gray outside today. Bring on the nor'easter. It'd be a shame to waste a nice day on the black

[Janet]

Interesting Cashill article on votes -

"Harvesting does not get the attention it deserves. The vote harvester’s mission is to gather unthinking collectives of potential voters – nursing home residents, college students, skid-row dwellers – and get them to vote.

Harvesting does not necessarily mean fraud, but it clearly encourages it. Early voting makes harvesting all the more economical. Fewer people on the ground can get more accomplished."

[Sue]

I don't personally care if people keep responding to the troll, I don't like anyone playing thread monitor, but for those that are having angst about this particular troll's nastiness, stop responding to him. At all. Attention getting whore will continue to vomit on our threads if he gets the attention he is seeking.

[Porchlight]

Yes, we have been relying on an Election Day-based strategy for too long. We need to start harvesting too.

[Porchlight]

Oh, and in case I was totally unclear upthread...when I first said "missing votes" I meant "missing Republican votes." That may be the source of the confusion - sorry hit.

[matt]

The next phase should be to clarify the Democratic party's War on Religion.

If you are a believer; in Christianity and it's various sects; in Islam; in Hinduism; in Confucianism, or in Buddhism, the Democrats do not recognize the true meaning of the First Amendment. They mandate freedom from religion, not of religion.

In banning faith based organizations from charitable activities using state funds, the democrats force them to either submit to their leftist agenda or shut down.

In the promotion of abortion after the first trimester the Democrats go even further than most European countries in their violation of the human rights of the unborn.

In the quest to take over the health care system they are driving out faith based health care.

The incredible hypocrisy of Reid, Pelosi, Biden, Cuomo and the rest of them is appalling.

In the Hadith, the fetus is considered human at 4 months. In Buddhism life begins at conception. Hinduism abhors abortion.

The FBI and police have been wiretapping and surveilling mosques that are nowhere near the radical sects in their views.

They booed God.

What more does it take in a nation that declares itself to be "of faith"? Are we that craven to allow Obama and Pelosi to encourage animals like Kermit Gosnell to commit their murders?

[Clarice]

Another hypothesis-Just maybe more voters who are dumber than lamp posts voted:http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/08/Breitbart-News-Judicial-Watch-Survey-Vast-Majority-of-Voters-Concerned-About-Federal-Government-Corruption

[Enlightened]

Oh dear, the children really believe that Obama never listened to his beloved spritual mentor Reverend Wright for the twenty years he attended his crazy America-hating cult.

Soon enough you will see how screwed you really are. In the meantime enjoy sucking his teeny little member - you're so gonna need some industrial strength pacifiers.

[jor]

"... On the other hand you have the community organizer, who's always skated along unchallenged, .... he is lazy. Not to mention ignorant. Nothing was ever expected of him, and he delivered... nothing... "

HEH -- I guess coming from a middle-class single parent home is "skating along" --- but growing up a millionare and getting a 37 million dollar loan from your Dad's friends to start a company is "hard work". You guys continue to live in lah lah land.

If you want to pretend Obama is lazy and ignorant and only got by on affirmative action --- you guys are gonna get trounced in the next election. FACE REALITY. Stop living in an echo chamber.

I didn't agree with most of Romney's policies and I thought he was a mega-flip flopper -- but as you mentioned, for the most part, he seemed to have lived a morally exemplary life.

This is called reality --- you acknowledge the strengths of your opponents, you don't pretend they don't exist. Again, I can provide lessons, free of charge.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Another hypothesis-Just maybe more voters who are dumber than lamp posts voted:--

Occam's razor strikes again.

[marlene]

Fun fact: Piscataquis County,Maine was the only county in all of New England's 65 counties that voted for Romney.We live in Penobscot County : (

[Stephanie]

Everyone should read the below LUN from Ace's on the ORCA effort. It is the experience that several of my friends reported, too.

A taste:

On one of the last conference calls (I believe it was on Saturday night), they told us that our packets would be arriving shortly. Now, there seemed to be a fair amount of confusion about what they meant by "packet". Some people on Twitter were wondering if that meant a packet in the mail or a pdf or what. Finally, my packet arrived at 4PM on Monday afternoon as an emailed 60 page pdf. Nothing came in the mail. Because I was out most of the day, I only got around to seeing it at around 10PM Monday night. So, I sat down and cursed as I would have to print out 60+ pages of instructions and voter rolls on my home printer. Naturally, for reasons I can't begin to comprehend, my printer would not print in black and white with an empty magenta cartridge (No HP, I will never buy another one of your products ever again). So, at this point I became panicked. I was expected to be at the polls at 6:45AM and nothing was open. I was thankfully able to find a Kinko's open until 11PM that was able to print it out and bind it for me, but this is not something I should have had to do. They expected 75-80 year old veteran volunteers to print out 60+ pages on their home computers? The night before election day? From what I hear, other people had similar experiences. In fact, many volunteers never received their packets at all.

At 6:30AM on Tuesday, I went to the polls. I was immediately turned away because I didn't have my poll watcher certificate. Many, many people had this problem. The impression I got was this was taken care of because they had "registered me". Others were as well. But apparently, I was supposed to go on my own to a Victory Center to pick it up, but that was never communicated properly. Outside of the technical problems, this was the single biggest failure of the operation. They simply didn't inform people that this was a requirement. In fact, check out my "checklist" from my ORCA packet:

...

He ends with this:

The bitter irony of this entire endeavor was that a supposedly small government candidate gutted the local structure of GOTV efforts in favor of a centralized, faceless organization in a far off place (in this case, their Boston headquarters). Wrap your head around that.

LUN

[bio mom]

Obama's grandmother was vice president of a bank. His flaky mother CHOSE to live the hippie lifestyle of the perpetual graduate student. There was no lack of money in that family.Obama attended a fancy prep school in Hawai.

[Enlightened]

LOL - Nicole Wallace nails it? DuDu shit his diaper squeezing that gem out.

Bwaahahahahhhh - Yet another Lying Lightbringer hoisted up the Liberal pedestal.

[James D.]

Sue, you're right. I should know better than to feed the trolls.

[hit and run]

Porch:
My math sucks but as best I can figure it, that would put Romney at a lower percentage of Rs than either McCain or GWB.

Did you read my first comment on the thread?

Romney got 93% of R's this year compared to 90% for McCain in 2008.

And that doesn't even get to the Dem crossover problem. If more Dems crossed over to Romney than to Bush or McCain, it drops Romney's R percentage even lower.

Dems did not crossover to Romney more than McCain!

Bush got 11% of Democrats in 2004, McCain got 10% in 2008 and Romney got 7% in 2012.

[Enlightened]

"you acknowledge the strengths of your opponents, you don't pretend they don't exist"

Obama's strength is the insanity, imorality, and criminality of his voter block.

I most certainly do not pretend those do not exist.

[derwill]

The problem the Democrats face, along with the Socialists in Europe, is that they are caught in their own death spiral. You reach a point where too much government debt stifles economic growth, which in turn requires you take on even more government debt and print money to make your payroll of the bludgeoning identity groups hooked on the government teat, but even more debt and money printing stifles growth even more, etc, etc, and with each downward movement in the spiral, the government pie gets smaller and smaller, while all those identity groups that you've been fostering and feeding with envy and hate start to turn on each other. And you.

And then there comes the day when the whole rotten house of cards collapses entirely and you've got Greece, where the doctors haven't been paid in May and people are abandoning their children in streets aflame with rioting tax collectors who've been on strike for months now.

Two days past the election and look at what's already happening here. Stock market going down, big layoffs at Boeing, FEMA abandoning hurricane victims who are now in danger of freezing to death . . . And Europe, who put off doing anything about their own looming fiscal cliff in order to help reelect the JEF is now discovering that the intervening months of doing nothing has only made their situation even more unsolvable.

I think we might come to realize soon that the Republican party as whole dodged a bullet on Tuesday, if the bad recession (if not an outright collapse) that is coming has already been baked into the cake. Romney is a smart, capable man, but some problems get to the point where they are unfixable.

The Dems caused the mess that is coming, so let them eat it.

[Old Lurker]

Today I read this from my (Episcopal) Bishop in her newsletter:

“Bishop Mariann’s Blog
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 08, 2012

In full disclosure, I voted for Democrats and Independents this week. I’m glad that the president was re-elected, and I personally would have been happy if all Tea Party Republicans had been voted out of office, not for their political views, but their collective refusal to compromise on matters vital to our country’s future…”

My response requesting delisting from her newsletter:

"So because our new Bishop dislikes all Tea Party Republicans and broadcasts that on this church sponsored mailing to her flock, the Bishop openly throws her support to the party that booed when the word "God" was reinserted into her party's platform, loudly and on TV before millions? Right....that's why so many feel so welcome in her church of late. Perhaps a little input from her on the immorality of the destruction of most that is good about this country might have been too uncomfortable for her? I guess failing to compromise on moral grounds is now "bad" in the eyes of the Episcopal Church? Did Christ consider splitting the difference with the Devil out there in the wilderness?

[jor]

Steph: You should see how much $$ they blew on advertising. Apparently they spent two times as much per Obama for each Ad (bought at last minute). That's the FISCALLY SOUND candidate at work.

[Sandy Daze]

OL - I guess it would be *too much* to tell her to go fluck herself. . .

[jor]

Enlightened: Keep denying reality. Keep watching Fox news and listening to Karl Rove, Dick Morris, Michael Barone, George Will tell you Romney is going to blow out the election.

It just makes my job easier. The more you guys deny reality, the easier it for Democrats to continue Winning. So keep doing what your doing!

[Sandy Daze]

excerpt from mass email jusst received from Allen West:

I'm writing to give you an update on where things stand.

Our race is far from decided and there is no rush to declare an outcome. Ensuring a fair and accurate counting of all ballots is of the utmost importance. There are still thousands of absentee ballots to be counted in Palm Beach County and military and provisional ballots across the district. Given the numerous reports of irregularities at the polls and the chaos surrounding the counting of ballots, it is important that we carefully evaluate the results and investigate the irregularities.

I know how hard you have worked for our campaign and I am grateful to have you standing shoulder to shoulder with me. I want you to know that we will fight to ensure every ballot is counted just as we will continue to fight to ensure our Republic remains exceptional and the future of our children and grandchildren is bright. For 22 years I stood as a watchman on the wall to guard America’s honor, liberty, freedom, and democracy. Now I will continue my oath of service to guard the integrity of our electoral process.
Steadfast and Loyal,

Allen B. West

[Clarice]

So sorry, OL. Maybe you'd care to join me in watching the dance tribute to the uterus at Howie's temple?

[Sue]

James,

Don't take my post as anything other than me yakking. Everyone is free to do what they please. Doesn't bother me one way or the other.

[bio mom]

Another sterling day on the stock market! So almost 500 points down since Obama got elected.

[hit and run]

Porch:
Oh, and in case I was totally unclear upthread...when I first said "missing votes" I meant "missing Republican votes." That may be the source of the confusion - sorry hit.

Yes, there is a case to be made that Romney could end up with fewer R votes than McCain.

My estimate in my first comment puts Romney about 2M down at this point from McCain's total in 2008.

Butf we assume...7M more votes, 32% R and 93% of R's to Romney that's . . . wait for it . . . 2,083,200 more R votes for Romney to come.

Again, that's built on very debatable assumptions, so who knows.

You know what they say about those who make assumptions. But as fate would have it assertion begins with the same three letters. :)

[Enlightened]

"That's the FISCALLY SOUND candidate at work"

As opposed to Bambi The FISCALLY SOUND President, presiding over this FISCALLY SOUND economy?

Soon you are going to learn a very painful lesson about being Fiscally Sound.

[Sandy Daze]

derwill, in previous thread, I posted this, and think it follows what you have just written:

We won't get there by being Democrat-lite, and we cannot sacrifice principles to pandering. I think the Lord AmSpec article is very important; it comports with my views precisely.

I agree--strongly--as well with these sentiments from another (email) correspondent who wrote, in part:

... We have to hit bottom FAST. A slow decline to socialism will lead to the same conditions that allowed the rise of Islamic fascist influence in countries like Great Britain. Don't laugh. You probably thought a lot of things could never happen that are now commonly accepted. ... Well, nothing would change there.

Hit bottom fast.

... Get it over with. Don't just slide down the hole clawing all the way to the bottom. Jump in and hit the trampoline with enough force to bounce back to the top. SPEND BABY!

IMO, the best way forward to to hasten the inevitable. What?

The quicker we get to full-form economic collapse, the better. It is the shock factor that is needed. If Americans can incrementally adjust to a continued lowering of their expectation, of their standard of living, they will as well adjust to the pain, the slower boiling of the frog. We need to be plunged full scale into the boiling pot.

THUS, in spite of the harm to national security and loss of tens of thousands (millions-CH edit) of employees' jobs, I fully support allowing sequestration to go forward, for the "tax cuts" to expire etc. Sure, we invite attacks against America, what's new?

Benghazi happened and we did nothing. Shit happens, why should we think that with a robust military or an emasculated military the National Command Authority's direction would be any different? People, innocent people will die. Just the cost of "perfecting" the union, as the resident might say...

Bring it on. Let's financially "break" America sooner, rather than later. It is going to happen one way or another. Once we go through a figurative chapter 13, both financially and politically America can emerge and try to regain it fundamentals, as Lord discusses.

[James D.]

Sue, I knew when I posted I shouldn't have. Letting them know they got to you is their whole reason for showing up here.

[centralcal]

Wow, Stephanie, that ORCA story is simply mind boggling.

A lot of folks discussing it on Twitter right now, including this:

Byron York ‏@ByronYork

@jpodhoretz From my election piece: 'Somebody said Orca is lying on the beach with a harpoon in it,' said Romney aide. http://ow.ly/f8D0T

[Porchlight]

OL,

It's hopeless. You really need to find an Anglican splinter church. :)

[maryrose]

tegy for republicans. Doe anyone know if West has won his race yet? I just don't want a series of recounts that enable the dims to steal it.
RE: 2014 senate elections- How many think Al Franken will win again? We need stronger repub candidates. Indiana and Missouri had weak candidates that enabled so so dems to win.

[Sue]

Oh Dear I don't even know where I got this so if it was posted above and I'm reposting, sorry.

So, the end result was that 30,000+ of the most active and fired-up volunteers were wandering around confused and frustrated when they could have been doing anything else to help. Like driving people to the polls, phone-banking, walking door-to-door, etc. We lost by fairly small margins in Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. If this had worked could it have closed the gap? I sure hope not for my sanity's sake.

[Sandy Daze]

OL - Rite of Christian Initiation of Adults (RCIA)

We need you & I think you might like what you find.

[Clarice]

He's up in Palm Beach by 300 votes. Port Lucie is where he thinks the most votes of his are to be found and he has gone to court to impound everything there pending a recount.

[Enlightened]

I don't watch Fox news. I don't care about Rove, Morris, Barone, Will - or you.

I care about my family, my friends, and my country. The REALITY is this president and his administration, and everyone that voted for them have FUCKED UP this great country beyond all recognition. If you think for a nanosecond that I will "make yours or liberals or democrats jobs easier" you are mistaken.

You and your ilk will not prevail, and this country will rise again in spite of the thug tactics that got this sham of a man re-elected. And I for one will not back down when trolls like you spew lie upon lie upon lie.

My reality is right on target - you and the other cretins prove it time and again. All I hear is the braying of jackasses following the Leader.

[Old Lurker]

Thanks Sandy.

I am steamed I must admit.

[maryrose]

should be harvesting votes is a good stategy for republicans...

[centralcal]

Sue, scroll up, I think Stephanie posted on ORCA. I later on added a link to Byron York about it too.

[centralcal]

Enlightened - Amen!

[Threadkiller]

Clarice, did you see my post about Speaker of the House?

[Porchlight]

That sucks about ORCA. Dems definitely know how to do the ground game stuff. But so did the Bush campaign. Where are those people? Hopefully the next candidate hires them.

[derwill]

There were many reasons why this election felt so important to me, but the primary one was this looming possibility of an economic collapse. I don't want to spend my twilight years chopping wood in the summer so that I won't freeze in the winter, surviving on powdered milk and eggs and canned beans, and killing a bunch of zombie looters who try to take what little stuff I got left.

Okay, so maybe it won't be quite that bad ;-) . . . but it won't be pleasant and I wanted to avoid it. I've never been convinced it was entirely avoidable, given how far down the road we already are, but I hoped that a President Romney would give us a fighting chance before the debt spiral crushes us.

Up until now I've only prepped for natural disasters, like for earthquakes when I lived in California, and for the occasional blizzards here. Might have to start thinking now about preparing to fend off the zombie Dems crazed by withdrawal from the government teat.