In The Future The Glass Will Be Half Full. Or Half Empty.

The NY Times reports on some crystal ball gazing indicating that, based on GDP, the US is due to slide to Number Two:

U.S. Forecast as No. 2 Economy, but Energy Independent

By THOM SHANKER

WASHINGTON — A new intelligence assessment of global trends projects that China will outstrip the United States as the leading economic power before 2030, but that America will remain an indispensable world leader, bolstered in part by an era of energy independence.

But there is bad news. And good:

The product of four years of intelligence-gathering and analysis, the study, by the National Intelligence Council, presents grounds for optimism and pessimism in nearly equal measure.

A snippet of both:

One remarkable development it anticipates is a spreading affluence that leads to a larger global middle class that is better educated and has wider access to health care and communications technologies like the Internet and smartphones. The report assesses global trends until 2030.

“The growth of the global middle class constitutes a tectonic shift,” the study says, adding that billions of people will gain new individual power as they climb out of poverty. “For the first time, a majority of the world’s population will not be impoverished, and the middle classes will be the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries around the world.”

At the same time, it warns, half of the world’s population will probably be living in areas that suffer from severe shortages of fresh water, meaning that management of natural resources will be a crucial component of global national security efforts.

Water will be the new oil just as the US frees itself from foreign oil.

Comments

[matt]

Energy independent when the majority of U.S. imports are oil based? Sounds good to me.

Yesterday there was an article about the massive LNG plants that are sitting idle because they were dependent upon imports. It seems it will cost more billions for the facilities to cool down the gas to liquid state. But the tank farms are already in place as is most of the piping. Sounds good to me.

Selling a few hundreds of billions in LNG to Japan and Europe sounds just about right except that neither economy is currently sustainable.

The increased use of NG will also accelerate the reduction in greenhouse gases which has already begun here in North America. The only two countries that reduced greenhouse gases last year were the US and Germany. So screw the rest of you f'in f's as my Brooklyn friends would say.

In addition, graphene sheet may have the potential to reduce the cost of desalination to almost nothing. If our government wasn't so hell bent on throwing monkey wrenches into every form of commercial endeavor I would say the glass is much more than half full.

We could be entering a time of plenty if we can balance the food equation.But don't worry, Obama will f that up as well.

[B Buckner]

Thankfully, most of the US has plenty of water.

[rse]

Yes because if everyone gets a high school degree even if it is based on computer gaming in the classroom and then has some college, they will necessarily be middle class. No need for an increase in actual knowledge or skills. It's that certificate that counts. That entitles you to a middle class livelihood.

Now of course that is just slightly more than what anyone is entitled to for drawing a breath.

Love it how the reports are not wanting to own up to all the other official government and NGO reports saying it will be a post-GDP future. They must think that might still cause electoral problems at this point.

It has been a good morning for the white hats in the depths of sleuthing. I got what I had been hypothesizing over all in one very forthcoming document. Thank goodness for ambitious academics at no-name schools. They are so graphic.

[GMax]

don't worry, Obama will f that up as well.

With the caveat that he finally and somewhat reluctantly gave the order to send Osama to the 7th level of hell, what has he done that can even progressively named a success? OF COURSE he will f it up, he has a near perfect track record. Its like Edwin Moses running a hurdles race back in the day, the outcome was preordained.

[glasater]

We've got a water well on our farm out in the boondocks...

[Janet]

Weasel Zipper has this video of a child beheading an Assad loyalist in Syria.

Unbelievable. Are we smuggling guns to THESE rebels? Is that what Benghazi was about?

[Jim Eagle]

Does this mean that China has now replaced Brazil as the country of the future (and it always will be)? How many times have we heard this about Japan, about Europe, about Russia, etc. I have to admit back then we were still pretty potent and had a dynamic future but the conditions for replacing us have changed and I think this is what he new metric is all about.

matt,

Desal is cost free now via hybrid co-generation using natural gas to produce combined cycle electric for the grid and use the steam turbine condensate for flashing the still. Electric sales pay for the water plus some. Most big ME units are hybrid.

But I agree that for stand-alone systems harnessing the graphene sheet filtration technology has lots of potential.

b buckner,

Not necessarily so. In some parts of America we have significant drought conditions and not enough water to meet the demand. Now a lot of this is political and environmental like in California but even where I live in Florida we are on RO desalination and restricted conditions for irrigation. You just are limited in how much certain areas can draw from the rivers like the St. John's and Mantanzas.

[Manuel Transmission]

JiB,

Desal is cost free now via hybrid co-generation using natural gas to produce combined cycle electric for the grid and use the steam turbine condensate for flashing the still. Electric sales pay for the water plus some. Most big ME units are hybrid.

That's way beyond my awareness. Do you have a link?

I'm particularly interested in some basic numbers like gallons of water per kwh produced and a cents per kwh that puts it into context.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Its like Edwin Moses running a hurdles race back in the day, the outcome was preordained.--

Except Barack Moses always manages to bring the US over the finish line last, after hitting every hurdle and even creating a few new ones.

[Clarice]

The good part is that if Obama's fercocked ME diplomacy continues apace all the Arabs will be too busy killing eachother to care about things like food and water.

[Rob Crawford]

The bad thing is that killing on the scale tends to spill over borders.

[Sylvain]

I found it interesting that for once, education can be that much given to our society. That makes more people to think about solutions that will be needed in this futur.

[NJ Jan]

Reince Priebus has announced the formation of a committee to figure out what went wrong in last election. The committee seems a little top heavy with Duke & Duke types. This should go well.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/12/rnc-launches-official-autopsy-on-election-151552.html

[Jim Eagle]

MT,

The ones we built in the UAE, SA and Kuwait are planned and operated that way. Do you know Leon Awerbach? He has a lot of the patents and most of the papers on them. The point being the seawater (feed) is free and only needs some help along the way (condensate). As you know, the big infrastructure cost is the electric generating and gas feed element.

I'm retired and don't have the same access to the cost library I once did but I do know that is the operational results from what we did. Not like the idea in the 50's that you didn't even have to meter nuclear power:)

[matt]

I believe those big ME desalination plants would be cost ineffective anywhere else in the world. They are underwritten with extremely low energy costs.Then again, if we have the same cost/BTU....

Better to burn the NG in that than on site, I guess. But not much market for any exports as well, which leaves huge swathes of the world underwatered.

If they can figure out graphene filters, this is a very low cost method. Remember, potability is a huge issue as well, but places like much of Africa could be tremendous beneficiaries. Imagine industrial scale farming in Namibia to fee the rest of the continent. Game changing stuff.

[Jim Eagle]

MT,

This is the only paper from Leon Awerbachi could find doing the google. He is an old friend and associate. More conversant in this than I will ever be, believe me.

[Peter]

Zero on the Ras today. Yes, Zero. How appropriate. Actually, the Rasmussen site has it as minus Zero, which is even lower than Zero, I think, but only a little.

[Clarice]

Tennessee has joined those states that are refusing to set up Obamacare health exchanges.http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/12/first-post-reelection-tea-party-victory-tennesse-will-not-set-up-obamacare-exchange/

I've lost count but we must be near 50% now..I mean if you only count 50 states total.

[narciso]

True, Clarice, the other seven states, have yet to be heard from,

[Clarice]

Washington Examiner:
Despite over 2,000 pages of legislative text, many key details of President Obama’s national health care law were left up to regulators to work out, with Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius given the lead role. The Obama administration wanted to avoid issuing potentially controversial health care regulations during an election year, but now that it’s over, regulations are starting to roll out. In a news dump this past Friday afternoon, HHS released 373 pages of new insurance regulations, and buried on page 299 is a proposed 3.5 percent monthly “user fee” to be levied on the premiums collected by insurers who offer policies on the new government-run exchanges. Effectively, it’s a regulatory surtax that will inevitably be passed onto individuals who purchase insurance on these new exchanges.

When Obamacare was written, Democrats envisioned new health care exchanges in all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, in which individuals (based on their income level) would receive subsidies to purchase insurance that met federal regulatory specifications. Under Obamacare, no federal funds are supposed to be used to help run the exchanges after January 1, 2015 (this refers to operating costs, such as providing customer service, rather than subsidies helping individuals pay for insurance coverage). The initial assumption of lawmakers was that states would have to figure out a way to make these exchanges self-sustaining. But now, at least 17 states have decided to let the federal government set up exchanges in their states, and several more are expected to follow suit. So, HHS has now devised this new surtax to pay for the costs. An HHS spokeswoman insisted to the New York Times that the fee wouldn’t translate into higher premiums. But basic economics teaches us that instead of absorbing these costs, insurers will pass them on to customers.

Michael Cannon of the Cato Institute has questioned whether the administration even has the authority to impose this new tax. In proposing the regulation, HHS claimed that the text of Obamacare “contemplates” such a user fee. But as Cannon points out, the law actually only suggested user fees as a possible option for the states, while making no mention of the federal government. The relevant portion of the health care law reads: “NO FEDERAL FUNDS FOR CONTINUED OPERATIONS. —In establishing an Exchange under this section, the State shall ensure that such Exchange is self-sustaining beginning on January 1, 2015, including allowing the Exchange to charge assessments or user fees to participating health insurance issuers, or to otherwise generate funding, to support its operations.” Now that HHS officials are struggling to find ways to pay for exchanges — a cost they thought they’d be able to foist on states — they are claiming authority to impose these fees.

Regardless of whether this authority exists, it’s another example of how the Obamacare’s true costs are only going to become known over time. When the law was written and it said “no federal funds” after January 1, 2015, as far as the Congressional Budget Office was concerned, that meant the exchanges won’t impose recurring costs on the federal government. But, now it’s clear that there will be ongoing costs, which the federal government will impose on insurers, who will in turn raise premiums on exchange consumers who receive federal subsidies.

[Rob Crawford]

Question: will the "strength" of the economy matter when the rule of law has been trashed?

[narciso]

And the Journal was giving him such a good write up this weekend, too

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/berlusconi-europe-frets-over-italy-return-to-political-chaos-a-871957.html

[NJ Jan]

Drudge also has a story up on how United Health would be controlling the Fed Health Exchanges. Can anyone say crony capitalism?

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/sebelius-coverup_664285.html

[narciso]

Do they not understand that it is a burden on the states;

http://freedomoutpost.com/2012/12/sc-gov-haley-pressured-to-break-on-obamacare-medicaid-expansion/

[pagar]

"Question: will the "strength" of the economy matter when the rule of law has been trashed?"

IMO, there will be no economy when the rule of law has been trashed.

[maryrose]

Wow! What a mess Obamacare is. Unexpectedly, half of the states want nothing to do with setting up exchanges.Half of the states were also a part of the lawsuit against it. Didn't anyone in this haphazard administration foresee this coming? No they just expected us all to kneel down and say "All Hail to Obama"
He will have his WORK cut out for him in this second term.I would like to change my name to "Don't raise the debt ceiling"

[cathyf]

I have sort of an off-topic question... Remember when Obama promised that if the defense contractors kept the coming layoffs secret through the elections the government would indemnify them against lawsuits for violating the layoff-notification statutes?

So do you think the courts will stand for it?

[pagar]

From the SC link.

"Adovcacy groups such as AARP, The United Way, and the March of Dimes claims that if South Carolina rejects the expansion, it could be potentially giving up $3 billion in federal money."

Where did the $3 billion in federal money come from? Since the Federal Government has no money except for the fines and money sent to Washington, where do the leftist think there is a pot of gold that can be robbed over and over.

[matt]

time for more bunga bunga!

The more I read, the bigger the Obamacare mess looks. Sebelius is awarding contracts to cronies; no one knows what or who is really covered; And not a word from the author of Obamacare in all of this.

Time to pour some water and sugar into the gearbox if you ask me. Let it all seize up. Don't expect Obama to get involved in anything so dreary as work. He's off on vacation shortly for 3 weeks.

Let it melt down. Let the defense contractors begin their layoffs. Screw lifting the borrowing ceiling. It's all a lie and a charade.

This is a great soundtrack for the resurgence of Berlusconi and the meltdown. Un Mondo Dificile by Tonini Carotone...LUN

[Danube of Thought on IPad]

Welcome back Gmax. Long time no see.

[Clarice]

matt, I'm with you. I have long thought this is what it would come to. Isn't federalism the best bulwark against autocrats? This is exactly what C J Roberts envisioned, a nation muscular enough not to have to keep running to SCOTUS to bail it out of legislative folly.

Cathy: " So do you think the courts will stand for it?" It would seem unfair not to. OTOH if they don't I suppose the costs will go into their cost plus calculations for the fed to cough up.

[Danube of Thought on IPad]

The sensible forecast (at least the one I reluctantly agreed with) was that once the feds took over healthcare, the GOP would become simply one of two parties trying to tweak it here and there. "We can manage the federal healthcare system better than the Democrats!"

Oh, how fervently I pray they prove me wrong just this once. Challenge HHS authority at every turn in the courts, but most of all, do not lift a single legislative finger to help them out of this godawful mess. They did this thing without a single Republican vote; let them stew in it with no GOP help as well.

Fat chance.

[Jim Eagle]

There could be a 10th kind of rebellellion here. Lets hope so. It may be the way out. Could Roberts end up being an Eagle instead of a. goat?

[narciso]

They do usually backslide, after they've fumbled the ball, JiB, with CFR, with the post Boumedienne cases, Roberts got his big history
making moment, now it's time for the details,

[Clarice]

Why not JiB? He's smarter than the entire media and Dem Congresscritters put together.......

[narciso]

A cunning, cunning plan, if ever there was one;

http://dailycaller.com/2012/12/10/is-soledad-obrien-about-to-go-flyin/

[boatbuilder]

"Fat chance."

Unfortunately, I think you are right on this one, DoT.

And this despite the reality that Obama keeps making it so easy for the Republicans to take the principled "We didn't want this in the first place" position. All he has ever said, publicly or privately, is "I won." No quarter given. I think even the pressweenies are beginning to wonder if he's going to offer anything substantive. Throw it back in his face.

[NK]

Obamacare = Jobs Killer-- even MSN News gets it now-- $63/employee fee for the uninsured-- quelle surprise! http://money.msn.com/health-and-life-insurance/news.aspx?feed=AP&date=20121210&id=15884956

[narciso]

As or Chastain, no wonder the critics raved over her performance in ZD 30, although Diane, almost tops her in the categoty, of 'unmitigated outrage, do they give these people any briefing materials whatsoever, or is it like when her staff gave up the base at Sharmsir, 'out of sight, out of mind,

[pagar]

Remember that free federal money.

http://www.npr.org/2012/12/07/166745290/school-district-owes-1-billion-on-100-million-loan

"The district needed $2.5 million to help secure a federally subsidized $25 million loan to build a badly needed elementary school."

"In the West Contra Costa Schools' case, that $2.5 million bond will cost the district a whopping $34 million to repay."

No one has said a word about how the $25 billion is going to get repaid. Actually it probably never will be repaid.

Money from the Feds. Amazing

[Manuel Transmission]

Thanks for that ppt, JiB. It's like an encyclopedia on the subject! I never got that close to power projects when I was at Ginormous Institute even though my buds there worked on a lot of EPRI jobs. On top of that I was gone to start my own outfit nearly 30 yrs ago. I just like to keep the basic numbers on real world things at hand so I can readily laugh at whatever clown show the lefty loonies throw out there. Cap and Trade, anyone?

[cathyf]

NK, they don't really get it at all. The way the no-pre-existing-condition rule works is that it gives people an enormous incentive to drop their insurance (and not pay premiums) until they get sick, and then they pick it back up every time they make a claim. Without pre-existing condition exclusions, paying premiums when you aren't sick is for chumps. So we have the law enabling parasite scumbags to drop in and out of insurance, and the $63/yr is simply $63 MORE that the scumbags steal from the insurance premiums paid by sick people.

Which is what Obamacare has ALWAYS been about -- a huge amount of money is changing hands between sick people and the enormously talented people who produce the goods and services that treat and cure them. A huge amount of money and the Obamacronies weren't getting their skim.

[narciso]

So, he spent a fair amount of time, with Bechtel;

http://www.desalination.com/museum/leonawerbuch

[narciso]

And needless to say, if Colbert is the answer to anything, the question was stupid.

[Manuel Transmission]

Thanks for that bio, narciso. He might have worked with my FIL (RIP) in Arabia.

[pagar]

" A huge amount of money and the Obamacronies weren't getting their skim."

I think that is one of the keys. The Democrats have became used to all the money flowing in from the unions and figure they should get like amounts from the medical fields.

[rse]

Every field. It's the price paid as an annuity for not nationalizing.

[narciso]

Well no that's no their no tape, everything is copacetic, oh wait;

http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/al-qaeda-leader-calls-abu-ismail-reignite-revolution

[narciso]

Yes, it's the Luigi Vercotti strategy, you pay the vig, to keep them from trashing your shop,

[narciso]

I'm crossing metaphors, but you ge the point,

[narciso]

Of course, since these NIC panels are staffed by
the likes of Pillar and Kojm, more than likely China will fall apart, before that date, 21st century warlordism,

[Melinda Romanoff]

cathyf-

I believe it was an implied promise of not allowing the DoJ to sue for non-notification.

Only.

But they might have promised less and implied even less, through "unnamed" Administration officials in the press.

But I might be biased.

Again.

[Melinda Romanoff]

rse-

And is precisely why they keep taking whacks at WalMart every turn around the merry-go-round, since their alligator arms can't reach the brass ring while their clasping at their pelf.

[Strawman Cometh]

Obama will f that up as well.

Or further consolidate and entrench with LNG export license pay to play

[cathyf]

I'm not sure, but I was under the impression during discussion when this was going down was that it's not the DoJ that has the standing to bring action under the notification law, but the laid-off employees who were not given the legislated minimum notification. So the government isn't a party to the proceedings...

[Latest Employment News]

The Labor Department's latest snapshot of the job market said employers added 146,000 jobs last month. That is an improvement from the previous two months, but below the average job growth per month of about 150,000 over the past two years. Payroll growth in September and October also was revised down by about 50,000 jobs.

[RichatUF]

cathyf-

The law as written has no enforcement mechanism. If a violation occurs, it is up to the laid off employee to sue his former employer. The penalities usually amount to what the laid off employee gets in severence anyway.

[narciso]

Well so much for that;

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/12/10/hillary-2016-source-says-benghazi-consulate-security-force-was-unarmed/