More Fun With Numbers At The Times

The NY Times are thinking so hard about gun control safety that have lost their math skills and common sense. But we can help!

In Other Countries, Laws Are Strict and Work

Like other shootings before it, the Newtown, Conn., tragedy has reawakened America to its national fixation with firearms. No country in the world has more guns per capita, with some 300 million civilian firearms now in circulation, or nearly one for every adult.

"Nearly one"? Per the US Census Bureau there are about 310 million people in America, roughly 60 million of whom are below the age of fifteen. That leaves 250 million "adults" including some fifteen-seventeen year olds. I think instead of "nearly", they meant "more than". Odd that they passed on a chance to scare us.

Pressing on, we come to the real scary stuff:

Experts from the Harvard School of Public Health, using data from 26 developed countries, have shown that wherever there are more firearms, there are more homicides. In the case of the United States, exponentially more: the American murder rate is roughly 15 times that of other wealthy countries, which have much tougher laws controlling private ownership of guns.

15 times? It's the Wild West! It is also multiplicative, not exponential, and seems ludicrously high. The Times links to a Harvard site, which seems to be keying off of this paper (Hemenway, David; Miller, Matthew. Firearm availability and homicide rates across 26 high income countries. Journal of Trauma. 2000; 49:985-88.) using data from the early 90's.

I can't find a free version of that paper [but a reader can - see UPDATE] so I can't speak to the author's conclusions, but here is a chart from Kieran Healey comparing "assault deaths" in the US and the OECD countries. My eyeballometric estimate is that the US level is currently around 6; one-fifteenth of that would be 0.4, and few if any OECD countries appear to be below that. [In an updated chart focusing on regional US variation Mr. Healey cites an OECD average of 1.1.]

And the United Nations provides data on homicide rates in different countries. I picked eighteen well-off, "Western" countries (including Japan) and used 2009 to keep Japan in the mix. The US rate was 4.4 intentional homicides per 100,000. One-fifteenth of that would be 0.3; Japan's rate, the lowest of the group, was 0.4.

The group average was, hmm, around 1. Done properly, I suppose someone could attempt a population-weighted average, but for my purposes, there is no way that the Times ratio of 15 holds up.

I know we all look forward to a fact-filled conversation, as the reality-based community comes home to reality.

The Times archives don't say a lot about the "American murder rate" but this is interesting from 1998:

...In 1996, the last year for which data are available, the United States murder rate was 7.4 per 100,000 people. The next closest country was Finland, at 3.2 per 100,000 people, with France at 1.1, Japan at 0.6 and Britain at 0.5.

Well, if Japan and Britain were used as the average, the US would have been about fifteen times the average of other countries. Interesting that the US has been getting better while France and the UK have been backsliding.

As to the editorial at hand, I say the Times editors are wrong and won't be able to back up their "fifteen times" claim. I also predict they won't even try.

I'LL DRINK TO THAT: Eugene Volokh notes the likely ineffectiveness of a new assault weapons ban without even mentioning that the gun used in Newtown was purchased in compliance with Connecticut's assault weapons ban, which mirrored the (lapsed) Federal bill. After explaining that all sorts of guns are deadly the professor closes with a New Year's Eve metaphor:

If I’m right on this, then banning assault weapons would have as little effect on mass shootings as banning whiskey would have on drunk driving. Even if we concluded that drunk drivers were disproportionately drunk on whiskey, banning whiskey would just mean that the drunk drivers will shift to vodka, gin, tequila, or other alcoholic beverages that are just as dangerous as whiskey. The same is true for the so-called “assault weapons.”

UPDATE: Here is the relevant chart from the paper described by the Times. The homicide rates are from the early 90's but the "15 times" ratio is not supported.

Ths US rate is roughly 10; one-fifteenth of that is about 0.7. Only three of the other countries are below that level, and the rest are well above, so with no further ado I deem the Times claim to merit Four Pinocchios. Or fifteen times that - Twelve Pinocchios!

Comments

[narciso]

What could possibly go wrong?

[NK]

Ig-- that photo brought back memories of summer 1976. I spent a week in Montreal with 2 buddies at the summer Olympics. Great time -- the India-Pakistan men's field hockey game was literally a war with double digit felonies committed. My other favorite place was the training track not far from the main stadium. You could go to the fence line just yards from where athletes were training, take photos and talk with some of them. About 1-2 days before the Decathalon commenced, Jenner was doing final prep, and as he finished up he came by to the 20-30 spectators, and signed autographs. My college roommate had his 35mm, and was taking mas pics. Someone next to us yelled out to Jenner to turn around for a photo-- Jenner did so and struck a pose like some 15 yo Romanian girl gymnast-- in his tiny little shorty shorts. When my roommate showed me his Olympic photos when we got back to school (no digital then!) his Jenner photo captured the moment perfectly. we were amazed that the'world's greatest athlete' had struck a girl gymnast pose-- tiny shorts and all. He's always been in touch with his feminine side-- or-- vice versa.

[NK]

Biden in charge? good that means nothing will happen-- he's a complete cock up.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Nah.

It means they've dusted off the proposals that they've kept in a drawer, just been waiting for the right post-electoral event.

[narciso]

Just like the Stimulus and Afghan policy, O frabjous joy.

[NK]

Biden means that Barry wants another failure. The decades old DemLeft gun laws have indeed been hauled out of the drawer(never let a heartbreaking nightmare go to waste!), but if Barry REALLY wanted them adopted he'd get Manchin or some other Dem with some credibility to work with the House and Senate Repubs. Instead he's picked SloJoe-- recipe for failure. The he blames the EVIL REPUBs again. As you have pointed out, that's his MO.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Carney says iBBama would veto Boehner's Plan B.

[NK]

MelR@1002-- as you said yesterday, Barry doesn't care. Everybody paying higher taxes, with irrelevant reductions in future spending, he's fine with that. That kills the productive classes, they are not his moocher blood.

[Melinda Romanoff]

NK-

Ever go to Cherry St East?

[NK]

In New Canaan?

[Melinda Romanoff]

Yeeess.

[NK]

Not for several years.. we used to go when the kids were pre-teen and teenagers. Nice little place...BTW the customers are mostly 1%ers.. not that there's anything wrong with that!! Our kind host at JOM may be a customer there, he may know more about it these days.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Are you closer to Luc's?

[NK]

Don't know Luc's... sounds fancy.. that may be why I don't know Luc's.

[Jim Eagle]

When is the NRA news conference?

I think that is what Boehner wants. Trouble is if we go over the cliff, Obama will attempt the heroic rescue of the muddle by proposing a tax cut for the 98% thus asking Boehner to make a "gutsy call" and vote it down.

[Melinda Romanoff]

In Ridgefield.

MLK weekend dinner there.

[NK]

Looked it up-- Luc's is in downtown Ridgefield. New Canaan is one town up, Ridgefield is 3 towns up (10 miles or so) from our house.

[Melinda Romanoff]

JiB-

I believe the NRA presser is Friday.

[NK]

MelR-- have fun!!-- Ridgefield is a lovely town that is on the Ct/NYS border. It was a sleepy little quaint town until the FinServ industry got huge in the 90s, new money came in then. It's sort of the final commuting town to Manhattan, although now most of the FinServ guys are hedgies who work in Stamford/Greenwich. Convenient to the Danbury airport, and alas, only a few miles from Sandy Hook elementary. Give me a ring if you want to meet -- Hit and Run has my email.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Ah. D-word. You around that weekend?

[Melinda Romanoff]

And hit has mine. We'll work it out.

[Melinda Romanoff]

NK-

I know the area very, very well. I've been visiting there since the mid-70's.

[Landru]

RalphL-"Some years ago at Ace of Spades (IIRC), someone linked a study that the murder rate among non-Hispanic white Americans was actually lower than for whites in most European nations. Can't remember if that was looking at victims or perps."

You can get that here: This is victims, not perps.

http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate10_us.html

In 2010 it breaks down for firearm homicdes Number-Population base-rate/100k as

White 2775 200 million 1.4/100k
Black 6051 39 million 15.3/100k
Asian 155 16 million 1/100k
Hispanic 1919 50 million 3.8/100k.

The overall homicide victimization rate for whites+Asians is about 2.5/100k. Look at it this way, if you had 2 towns with a population of 200,000. In one their were 5 murders a year (US white/asian demographic), and the other had 2 (Germany), would you view one as dangerous, and one not? It isn't guns, it's demographics.

And as far as the accidental shooting deaths of children, the incidence in the age 0-14 age group is 1 per million. Drowning is 8 times that.

[NK]

Let's work it out for MLK weekend-- no plans for me right now. maybe we can get JimmyK to ride the train up from the UWS.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Ban water.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Ig-

No buckets or bathtubs. That covers the "B"s.

[Rick Ballard]

"It isn't guns, it's demographics."

And that, plus really lousy polling, is why BOzo made the hand off to SloJo. BOzo's fanatical support of the prog Black Genocide project also comes into play - crocodile tears from a baby killer don't carry much weight.

[Mark Folkestad]

Since Montreal has come up tangentially, I should mention that one son of my very conservative cousin in Vancouver was the best friend and university roommate of one of the sons of Pierre and Margaret Trudeau. The chap was always mortified by his mother's scandalous partying, and he wanted to crawl into a hole when the infamous "beaver shot" was published.

[Danube of Thought]

One of my favorite moments in history was when Pierre was cuckolded by Mick Jagger.

[Jane: Mock the Media]

Let Obama veto plan B. I don't think he has ever vetoed anything because Harry Reid never allows a vote.

he can be held responsible.

[Danube of Thought]

Eagle and sheep.

[hit and run]

NK, Melinda -- email sent...

[Melinda Romanoff]

Thanks, hit!

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--One of my favorite moments in history was when Pierre was cuckolded by Mick Jagger.

Posted by: Danube of Thought | December 19, 2012 at 11:13 AM--

Wouldn't it be a shorter list if we stuck with only those whom Maggie didn't cuckold him?

[Mark Folkestad]

Iggy, that list is probably only somewhat shorter than the list of men whose wives cuckolded them with Jagger. But I never got the chance with Margaret Trudeau (or the chance to have the "little guy" rot away from STDs, same difference). By the way, it boggles the mind that someone as ungodly ugly as Jagger would have had so many conquests.

[jimmyk]

"Let's work it out for MLK weekend"

Pretty sure I'm around and available, except for Friday.

[NK]

jimmyK-- does Hit and Run have your email address?

[Melinda Romanoff]

jimmyk-

I'll be in touch.

[Melinda Romanoff]

NK-

I do, and phone #s.

[NK]

Okie Doak.. we're jake then.

[hit and run]

I have dates of birth if anyone needs them.

I'm not prepared to give out the ssn#'s though.

[Melinda Romanoff]

I have yours, so that's a start.

[jimmyk]

I'm not prepared to give out the ssn#'s though.

Hey, were you the guy who got hold of my credit card number and bought an $1800 computer? Unfortunately for whoever did, it was shipped to me, and has been returned to Dell. I still had to cancel the card, though.

[Jane: Mock the Media]

Wow Jimmy, that's pretty amazing.

[NK]

JimmyK-- that is quite a tale. Only time a credit card of mine was hacked was at a fancy NYC restaurant. I have no idea why we wilfully hand cards over to restaurant workers, instead of swiping and inputting PIN as they do in europe.

[hit and run]

I'd get caught if I was trying to pull in $1800 merchandise per heist.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Back in '92, I learned I held multiple loans on vacant property in Rockaway Park, as a Chicago resident.

[jimmyk]

Wow Jimmy, that's pretty amazing.

I don't know, I'm pretty careful, but something like this seems to happen once/year. In this case it's bizarre, because usually someone doing this would have the merchandise shipped to some 3rd party (which inevitably triggers a security alert). So I wonder if it wasn't some screwup by Dell.

[Jane: Mock the Media]

Yeah - the amazing part (for me) was that they shipped it to you.

[Clarice]

Visa's very good at alerting us to suspicious charges..Usually thieves start by buying something smallish to see if the number is valid..

[Barbara]

Biden means that Barry wants another failure.

There must have been a great deal of push back to Obama's political speech in Newtown, Connecticut for him to give this to Biden.

[NK]

Agreed; banning guns must be polling poorly. So we just get more shite for BarryI's leftwing base.

[hit and run]

Clarice:
Visa's very good at alerting us to suspicious charges..

Sometimes they're too good at trying to prevent fraudulent charges. On our drive to Idaho last summer they shut down our card when they saw multi-state charges at gas stations and restaurants.

Lesson learned: call them ahead of time and let them know we'll be on the move.

Or alternate lesson: go ahead and cancel the card, request a new one and contest the charges so you don't have to pay for half your cross country trip.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Good luck with that strategy.

[jorod]

Perhaps we have more poor, ignorant, and violent people than other countries thanks in part to other countries dumping their social problems on the U.S. It would be interesting to see how many immigrants are in each country and what the rate of violence is in immigrant communities. Castro likes to dump his excess criminals on the U.S. And Mexico... well that's another story.
Domestically speaking, experience says that violence and poverty is highest where the welfare state and the democrat machine are strongest in certain ethnic neighborhoods. Like the south side of Chicago. The welfare state leads in the production of poor, ignorant people. Their lives are planned out by the government. Born into a single parent family, a meal ticket to the parent, largely left to their own devices as children, poorly educated, ready to step into gangs, prison and/or death on the streets. The politicians say more taxes will solve everything.