Our Dubious Stat Du Jour

As part of their ongoing effort to participate in a national debate about appropriate gun laws the NY Times editors chime in yet again with a Dubious Fact du Jour:

The States Confront Gun Violence

...

State gun laws matter. Of the 10 states with the most restrictive laws, seven also have the lowest gun death rates, according to a study by the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. Similarly, lax gun laws correlate to a high level of gun deaths.

Hmm, yet I happen to know (based on my kids' ski habits) that Vermont has roughly no gun laws and no crime. So without even peeking I am betting that "lax" gun laws correlate well with widespread gun ownership and a high suicide rate using guns.

No, I didn't cheat - here is the study to which the editors refer, and I will extract the cool map:

Let the barrel-fishing begin! Montana and Wyoming will have very low crime rates (FBI UCR, 2010), yet up there in Big Sky country guns are killing people like flies. Let's compare homicide rates and overall "gun violence" rates including suicides for Montana, Wyoming, and California. The data source is here.

Overall violence related firearm fatality, including suicide:

CA - 7.78 per 100,000

MT - 16.07

WY - 15.6

So far so good for the Times editors. But how about homicides?

CA - 3.60 per 100,000

MT - 1.72

WY - 00 -

Ooops.  FWIW, I say Wyoming should be 0.9 based on the UCR showing 5 homicides in a state of 560,000, but either way, it is far below California.

Well - I think preventing suicides is a laudable objective and I am sure that some impulsive suicides carried out by gun might not happen at all if the alternatives were pills, ropes, or tall buildings.

On the other hand, Obama was inspired on gun control by the Newtown school shooting, which was not a mass suicide. Nor was the Aurora movie theatre shooting, the Tucson shooting, and so on. And I can't imagine how limiting ammunition magazines to ten rounds or banning assault weapons would reduce suicides, but I try to learn something new everyday.

If the President and the NY Times want to point to a school shooting and talk about preventing gun violence, maybe they should focus on preventing homicides. Unless they are trying to dupe their readers, of course.

SINCE YOU ASK: The overall suicide rate in Montana and Wyoming is about 23 per 100,000. In California, it is about 10.5. Why the disparity? I am out of ammunition on this topic.

Comments

[Rob Crawford]

ISTR the analysis has been done and there's no statistically significant connection between that grade and gun violence.

[centralcal]

O/T

Wash. Free Beacon ‏@FreeBeacon

RT @AP: BREAKING: Federal grand jury indicts former New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin on corruption charges.

[sammy small]

Lack of psy docs dispensing anti-depressants.

[Rob Crawford]

LUN, for the analysis of the scoring system of another of the groups. It really doesn't matter that the particular front group was a different one -- all the gun control groups swap staff, have the same funding sources, and use the same rhetoric.

[Danube of Thought iPad]

I guess the grand jury wasn't chocolate enough.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Why the disparity?--

Haven't you seen the farmer dating site ads?
After a lonely stroll in the cornfield with the talking cows who wouldn't want to blow their brains out?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--And I can't imagine how limiting ammunition magazines to ten rounds or banning assault weapons would reduce suicides, but I try to learn something new everyday.--

A really bad shot might give up after ten rounds whereas he might keep blazing away with 30 until he hits pay dirt.

[John Mayer]

Body  count: In the last six months 292 killed (murdered) in  Chicago (221 killed  in Iraq ) and Chicago has one of  the strictest gun laws in the entire  U.S.!

Chicago: 446 school age children  shot for 2012 with strongest gun laws in country - media  silent!
    
Clash  Daily " href="http://clashdaily.com/author/clashdaily/%3e" target="_blank"<http://clashdaily.com/author/clashdaily/>  
 
The cesspool known as Chicago  probably has the toughest gun laws in the country, yet despite  all the shootings, murders, and bloodshed, you never hear a peep  about this from the corrupt state run media. In Chicago , there  have been 446 school age children  shot in leftist utopia run by Rahm Emanuel  and that produced Obama, Jesse Jackson, Louis Farrakhan,  etc. 62 school  aged children have actually been killed by crazed  nuts in Chicago in 2012. So why isn't this news  worthy? Is  it because it would embarrass those anti second amendment nuts  who brag about Chicago 's tough gun laws? Is it because most of kids who were shot and killed were minorities? Or is it  because the corrupt media doesn't want to show Chicago in a bad  light?

<http://crimeinchicago.blogspot.com/2012/12/connecticut-doesnt-have-shit-on-chicago.html>
 
THE LIST OF MURDERED SCHOOL  AGE CHILDREN 2012
   18 YEARS OLD-  15
   17 YEARS OLD-  16
   16 YEARS OLD-  16
   15 YEARS OLD-  6
   14 YEARS OLD-  4
   13 YEARS OLD-  2
   12 YEARS OLD-  1
   7  YEARS OLD- 1
   6  YEARS OLD- 1
   446 School Age  Children Shot in Chicago so Far This  Year
THE LIST OF  SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN SHOT IN 2012
   18 year old-  110
   17 year old-  99
   16 year old-  89
   15 year old-  62
   14 year old-  39
   13 year old-  21
   12 year old-  10
   11 year old-  2
   10 year old-  3
   9  year old- 1
   7  year old- 3
   6  year old- 2
   5  year old- 1
   4  year old- 1
   3  year old- 1
   1  year old- 2
   So why isn't this news  worthy?

The  leadership in Illinois - all Democrats.
President:   Barack Hussein Obama
Senator:  Dick Durbin
House  Representative:  Jesse Jackson Jr.  (resigned)
Governor:  Pat Quinn
House leader:   Mike Madigan
Atty. Gen.:  Lisa Madigan (daughter of  Mike)
Mayor:  Rahm Emanuel
 
Chicago  school system rated one of the worst in the country.
State  pension fund $78 Billion in debt, worst in country.
Cook  County ( Chicago ) sales tax 10.25% - highest in country. 
A  culture of corruption that would make a Louisiana politician  blush with envy.
 
Can't blame Republicans; there  aren't  any!

[matt]

Well, if IL is rated B-, then almost all of the killings must be in Chicago. Hmmm....

[Extraneus]

Read a Lawyer’s Amazingly Detailed Analysis of Bilbo’s Contract in The Hobbit

(via Instapundit)

[Adenoid Hynkel]

In Detroit a few years back, a union official was found in the alley behind the union hall with two bullet holes through his head, and a .357 beside him. The coroner ruled it suicide. Statistics, liars, etc. ...

[Mark Folkestad]

Adenoid Hynkel, that sounds so much like the case of my great-aunt. She was found face down in the alley behind the bar that her husband owned and ran, with an entry wound in her back and an exit wound in her front. The revolver was just to the side of the bar's back door step. The bar was the favorite watering hole for the precinct's cops. It was written up as a suicide.

[Cecil Turner]

Of the 10 states with the most restrictive laws, seven also have the lowest gun death rates . . .

I'm going to point out this is a BS statistic every time I see it. The point of the exercise is to reduce death rates overall, not gun death rates. If all gun confiscation accomplishes is to drive perpetrators to other weapons (e.g., knives in the UK) then we've given up the right to bear arms for nothing. And we ought not let the gun control lobby get away with this shoddy selection of measures, any more than we should let them get away with the rest of their statistical malpractice.

[Jim Eagle]

Ex,

Thanks for that 2:35 link. I will read this to Frederick as he holds and reads the contract. We have a copy of the "coffee table" book on the making of the film and it has a facsimile copy of the real contract used in the movie. BTW, it is amazing the creativity and originality of the character development, makeup and costuming. Great movie, better book.

[daddy]

The overall suicide rate in Wyoming I believe is due to the weather and the winds. Big cabin fever syndrome.

[daddy]

We had a bank robbery up here on Wednesday with a Hammer, but common sense and a good samaritan allowed to cops to nab the guy pretty quickly. FBI: Man robbed Anchorage bank with a hammer

Guy sounds like a psycho and has previous theft arrests.

[Ignatz Ratzkywatzky]

Spent a few weeks in Evanston and Green River, Wyoming.
Pretty sucky. Suicide sucky?
Throw in the wind, a cheating girlfriend and a dead dog; maybe.

[clarice feldman]

Heh. Iggy..At least you didn't put the dog first.

[Gus]

Ignatz, that sounds like the makings of a great Country music song!! Seriously. Add a little pick up truck and some drankin'. Butt, one thing is missing. That girlfriend, that cheatin' girlfriend. What does she look like???
Heh! I'd love to help write the song.......

[Ignatz Ratzkywatzky]

I don't see how we could top David Allan Coe/Steve Goodman, Gus;

WELL, I WAS DRUNK THE DAY MY MOM GOT OUT OF PRISON
AND I WENT TO PICK HER UP IN THE RAIN
BUT BEFORE I COULD GET TO THE STATION IN MY PICKUP TRUCK
SHE GOT RUN NED OVER BY A DAMNED OLD TRAIN

[narciso]

I know, you are shocked as much as I;

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/clay-waters/2013/01/18/nytimes-buries-own-poll-findings-showing-support-armed-guards-school-bl

[Extraneus]

That's hard to top.

[Extraneus]

The wind was howlin'
Saw Jo-Lynne and Dad in bed
Called Ol' Buck to fetch me a Hoegaarden
But Ol' Buck just laid there dead

What's a country boy to do?
Oh what's a country boy to do?
Done tried and failed to keep a positive outlook
But what's a country boy to do?

[Extraneus]

[various plaintive yodeling refrains]

Oh what's a country boy to do?

[squaredance]

Again, you make the mistake of thinking that this is a rational argument.

This, like any other argument with the left, is not about reason. It is about power--all else is just about preparing the political battle field. This all is either propaganda or agit-prop.It is like trying to have a rational argument about the economic effects of Aryan ideology with a NAZI.

This is particularly pernicious in this case:

1) As a fundamental matter of principle, it does not matter really what the stats are. This is about a right; it is not about some utilitarian argument, outcome or goal. It well could be that a republic that has freedom to bears arms does have more gun deaths, at least from non-government violence. In fact, this does seem likely. Where there is freedom of choice and personal responsibility then it well could be that more people make the wrong choices and act irresponsibly, and other will have to more frequently defend themselves against such people. The problem with these debates about data is that we letting the Left control the terms of the argument. The amount of gun deaths are fundamentally irrelevant to the true issue at hand. If it were, then we would be talking about the ghastly death toll of collectivist tyrannies of the last century.

2) Trying to debate against propagandists legitimizes the propaganda. The immorality of the approach itself needs to be called out.

3) A substantial minority, perhaps a plurality (majority?) of Americans lack the ability, evidently, to parse these sort of arguments and debates. They are swayed by emotion and sentimentality, and have profound difficulties with suppressing primitive scapegoating impulses. They are not rational adults and they will never grasp these issues. That is why we have arrived to this shocking turn of events in the first place. by merely engaging in these sort of "debates" we are not really accomplishing much but talking to ourselves.

The Left, of course, understands all of this. That is why they tell such whoppers in public. No matter how it might appear, they are not engaging is some sort of "public discourse". Not at all. As they almost always do, conservatives mistake the true nature of their enemies and their capacity fro nihilism, ruthlessness and pure evil.

It is way past time to start calling the Democrats by their true names.

[International Schools Mumbai]

A partnership formal was discovered in the street behind the partnership area with two topic gaps through his go, and a .357 beside him.

[Landru]

"Well - I think preventing suicides is a laudable objective and I am sure that some impulsive suicides carried out by gun might not happen at all if the alternatives were pills, ropes, or tall buildings."

Ok, stop right there Maguire. Preventing suicides may be laudable, but a government trying to ban, control or limit the possesion of items because a small number of people use them to kill themselves is not. Where does this type of thing occur? When people are booked into jail or a psychiatric facility. Is that the way you think government should treat the citizenry?
As people who should have any object that can be used to kill themeselves with taken away from them. Please....

[sbwaters]

People who disagree with government that drives people crazy enough to commit suicide are obviously crazy and shouldn't have firearms.

[BT]

What interest does the state have in suicide?

[FishingCharter]

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[sbwaters]

Hope your ISP takes away your website for spamming.

[Dr. Weevil]

There are huge ethnic differences in suicide rates. As I recall, the white rate is much higher than the black rate, and the northern European rate is much higher than the southern European rate, though I think Hungarians (not all that far north) are at or near the top, with most or all of the Scandinavian countries also in the top ten. (Maybe there is something in the old 'ice people' / 'sun people' concept: ice people are certainly more prone to suicide.) I don't know about Asians (Eastern or Southern), Middle Easterners, or American Indians.

Do I have to finish the argument, or is everyone here already way ahead of me? Obviously different states have different mixes of various ethnicities, and this will naturally affect the overall suicide rates, quite apart from any effects of differing availability of guns.

I suspect there are also ethnic differences in the preferred method of suicide. There are certainly gender differences, and not only in the ancient world. A Classicist got a whole book ("Tragic Ways of Killing a Woman") out of the fact that in Greek tragedy, suicidal men almost always stab themselves, while suicidal women almost always hang themselves. In the modern world, I believe men are more likely to use guns and succeed, and women are more likely to use pills and fail - or at least fail in killing themselves, while possibly succeeding in what they were really trying to accomplish.

I'm too lazy to do the research, but I suspect someone less lazy could utterly destroy the referenced study.

[jorod]

The Times lies... Go figure...