Gun Magic, Or, More Fun With Numbers At The NY Times

The NY Times continues their contribution to a serious national dialogue on guns with these two old chestnuts. First, from a piece on the urgent yet faltering effort to expand background checks:

But no background check is required for about 40 percent of gun purchases, including those made online or at gun shows, federal officials estimate.

Federal officials who offer that estimate, including Obama, are getting Three Pinocchios from WaPo "FactChecker" Glenn Kessler. His gist - the 40% figure comes from a stale 1994 study and includes gifts and estate transfers. A better estimate is about 20%.

The Times then reprises the gun violence/gun homicides game, although more transparently than last time:

Report Links High Rates of Gun Violence to Weak State Regulations

By ERICA GOODE

Many states with the weakest gun laws have the worst rates of gun violence, ranking high on numerous indicators, like gun homicides and suicides, firearm deaths of children, and killings of law enforcement officers, according to a report to be issued Wednesday by the liberal Center for American Progress.

At least they mention suicides; the last time they ran this con they completely omitted the word.

Alaska ranked first in overall gun deaths, the report found, with 20.28 deaths per 100,000 people in 2010 — more than twice the national average — followed by Louisiana and Montana, all states that prior analyses have judged to have weak gun laws. Eight of the states with the highest levels of gun violence were among the 25 with the weakest gun laws, the report found.

Yeah, yeah. The last report was ranking states like Montana high on gun violence based on a high suicide rate and a very low homicide rate. I am confident that the same pattern held up one year later. And if eight of the top ten are among the lower half of all states in terms of their laws, is that a stastically meaningful correlation? I would have thought pure chance would put five of the top ten in the lower 25. Where is Nate Silver when the Times needs him!?! [Per this binomial calculator, the odds of getting 8, 9 or 10 of the Top Ten states landing in the lower 25 are about 5.4% if the underlying process is 50/50. Put another way, if a coin was tossed for each of the top ten and each state coming up heads was put in the lower 25, there would be about a 5.4% chance of getting 8, 9 or 10 heads.)

Late in the story the fly in the ointment is noted again:

Dr. Azrael, of Harvard, noted that the factors that were driving gun violence differed from state to state — in states like Montana and Idaho, for example, the rate of gun suicides greatly outstrips the rate of homicides committed with firearms.

It will be interesting to peruse the study when it hits the intertubes. The lead tells us that low control states score high on "numerous" indicators, such as "gun homicides and suicides, firearm deaths of children, and killings of law enforcement officers". Yet I think we will find states like Montana ranking high on just one factor. The suspense mounts!

Should suicides be counted in the overall gun violence statistics? I would boldly say "No", and "Maybe". If the topic is making mental health part of a robust background check system, and denying guns to people judged to be at risk of suicide, then yes, the suicide rate is relevant. And there is evidence that the suicidal impulse can be transitory, so lack of access to something quick and decisive like a gun can have an impact on the suicide rate (1, 2, 3).

But when Obama et al start talking about gun control in terms of assault weapons and limiting magazine capacity, I think it is fair to note that the link between those factors and suicide is not firmly (or even vaguely) established. Are we facing a national crisis of suicides by people who shoot themselves sixteen time and then bleed out? I missed that report.

HMM: From the study, here are the Top Ten:

1. Louisiana
2. Alaska
3. Alabama
4. Arizona
5. Mississippi
6. South Carolina
7. New Mexico
8. Missouri
9. Arkansas
10. Georgia

Some of those states look legimately violent, not suicidal. And pardon my idiocy, but doesn't the Times mention Montana? I am seeing this on my screen:

Alaska ranked first in overall gun deaths, the report found, with 20.28 deaths per 100,000 people in 2010 — more than twice the national average — followed by Louisiana and Montana, all states that prior analyses have judged to have weak gun laws. Eight of the states with the highest levels of gun violence were among the 25 with the weakest gun laws, the report found.

Yet Montana doesn't make the Top Ten for overall gun violence. So why is the Times leading with it? [This interactive map gives each state's rank in each category; in 2010 Montana was 3rd in overall firearm death rate and 3rd in firearm suicide rate, but 36th in firearm homicide rate. Its aggregate rank was 13, so it missed the Tragic Ten.]

Here are the criteria that went into the gun violence index:

1. Overall firearm deaths in 2010
2. Overall firearm deaths from 2001 through 2010
3. Firearm homicides in 2010
4. Firearm suicides in 2010
5. Firearm homicides among women from 2001 through 2010
6. Firearm deaths among children ages 0 to 17, from 2001 through 2010
7. Law-enforcement agents feloniously killed with a firearm from 2002 through 2011
8. Aggravated assaults with a firearm in 2011
9. Crime-gun export rates in 2009
10. Percentage of crime guns with a short “time to crime” in 2009

Obviously, a low-crime high-suicide state like Montana will score poorly on the suicide and overall death scale (and isn't that double-counting?) but not stand out in the other factors.

SUFFER THE CHILDREN: The overview of the CAP report tells us that "children" are 0-17 years old. Yet when I click to the fact sheet for Louisiana, I see that "children" are 0-19, which means a lot of high school grads (and dropouts) that have become gangbangers are still counted as children. OTOH, Alaska seems to be based on 0-17. Baffling. The footnotes spend me to the CDC, so my morning is coming undone.

BACK IN ALASKA: The CAP fact sheet says this about Alaska:

From 2001 through 2010 Alaska had the highest gun homicide rate among children ages 0–17 of any state in the country, at three times greater than the national average.

If I am handling the CDC database correctly, (IF!) there were 37 total firearm homicides from 2001-2010 in the 17 and under category; 18 of those were attributable to Alaskan Indians, who are about 15% of the population and show other signs of social breakdown (which probably hurt the violence against women stats as well).

Well. Even setting aside half the youth homicides, Alaska's rate would still be 1.5 times the national average. And apparently, by other measures Alaska's overall homicide rate is not a standout problem.

JUSTIFIED: Kentucky is 21? Get Raylan Givens on the line. And Texas is 23, which doesn't fit the image at all.

Comments

[narciso]

Alaska over NY, Illinois or California, might as well be talking the Piranha Bros again,,

[Danube of Thought]

Where does Chicago rank?

[NK]

What is the NY Times?

In any event this is Federalism; citizens of each state decide what's best for their laws. Which leads to a question I have-- how does gun violence index withIN states affect the State Ranking; For instance-- EXcluding New Orleans and Baton Rouge, what is the balance of La? ECclude St lou and KC, what is the balance of Mo? If those States are like Ct, the citizens there are happy to let the urban gangbanger shot each other, so long as it doesn't affect the rest of the State. Fun with numbers? More like lies with numbers?

[henry]

Obamacare defines children as under 27. These stats will soon be updated to match.

[NK]

Henry-- On Wisconsin!! the S Ct stays sane, public unions going bust because no reason for members to pay dues. You're one lucky guy. Just tell those idiot repubs not to get corrupt and squander it all.

[hit and run]

Many states with the weakest gun laws

"weakest" is a loaded term. Categorizing states as weak/strong on gun laws carries the implication that stronger is better, weaker is worse.

One could do the opposite (but not if one wrote for the Times) and load the sentence with the implication that less is better - "many states with the least burdensome gun laws".

[narciso]

Well they did no original research, they just fired another round from the Wurlitzer here;

http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/AlaskaGunViolence1.pdf

[henry]

Thanks NK, right now the Repubs are wrangling with Walker's budget -- they think it spends too much and reduces taxes too little!

[narciso]

Are they reading the numbers upside down, is Bearded Spock doing the count;

http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/AmericaUnderTheGun-2.pdf

[jimmyk]

Why limit the analysis to deaths from firearms? Killers will use knives or clubs if guns aren't handy. Of course the answer is that they want to get the desired result.

[James D.]

Did y'all see this, in the WaPo?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-administration-pushes-banks-to-make-home-loans-to-people-with-weaker-credit/2013/04/02/a8b4370c-9aef-11e2-a941-a19bce7af755_story.html?hpid=z1

The Obama administration is engaged in a broad push to make more home loans available to people with weaker credit, an effort that officials say will help power the economic recovery but that skeptics say could open the door to the risky lending that caused the housing crash in the first place.

Because, as Glenn at Insty notes, what could go wrong?

[NK]

ChiTown Homicide Rate/100,000 in 2012? 18.7-- an outrage, even in comparison to other Large USA cities: http://chicagowarrior.blogspot.com/2013/01/chicago-crime-500-murders-in-2012.html

[matt foley]

a better estimate is 20%

ummm, no.

Economist John Lott, the author of several landmark studies on the real-world impact of gun control, has concluded that if you take out transfers of guns either between FFLs or between family members, the remaining number of transfers falls to about 10 percent. Those were the numbers from two decades ago. “We don’t know the precise number today, but it is hard to believe that it is above single digits,” he told me.

[Gus]

Dindale!!!! Dinsdale!!!!!
This bullshit is totally absurd. We have a President who has a severe difficulty in telling the truth......ever. They must have a Ministry of Bullshit in the White House. I don't remember Carney being confirmed by the Senate, he must be a CZAR.

[Agent J]

NK I would love to see that info on the state of MO..When we voted on CC those two city's in mass opposed approval, an a small plus vote in Columbia an Springfield denied us that right, then the Legislative side over ruled everything..We now have it CC if you choose to use it..But in my case no one knows, unless you pat me down..

Hit they use that when they determine who has the strongest, or best controlled State Government..ND, WY, MT,an Idaho have weak Governments because they do not have layers of bureaucratic watching other bureaucratic as most states do..They also have very affective State Governments with very little know corruption.

[narciso]

Even a rabid Marmot, like Medred, is right occasionally. but those rampant shootings in Anchorage, must be like the mysterious vampire
infestations in Barrow.

[NK]

In fairness to ChiTown-- it is a homicide paradise compared to detroit, NOLA Philly and St Lou. BTW-- that Lefty Blogger in ChiTown, gets a lot of facts right-- solutions? not so much.

[Gus]

How come there is never any mention of AFRICAN-AMERICANS when these bullshit gun statitics are bandied about???
Ask yourself. Where is the highest concentration of gun violence in America? Where do half of America's murders occur.
The answer to both without the need for Obama's lies, is INNER CITIES. NO BACKGROUND CHECKS going on there.
NRA members are not the problem.

[Clarice]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/power-players-abc-news/where-did-money-700-million-katrina-relief-money-112137424.html

[Rob Crawford]

How come there is never any mention of AFRICAN-AMERICANS when these bullshit gun statitics are bandied about???

Because the intent isn't to disarm THEM.

[Jim Eagle]

Talking about Alaska. Sarah Palin gets some raspberries from the wrong side of the right crowd.

The DaTech Guy and Stacy McCain seem to think she could have been a difference for Curtis Bostic in the SC-1 primary and may have lost the seat to the Colbert sister.

Link

[Gus]

henry, have you seen St Louis' homicide numbers. HOLY CRAP.
318,000 population 113 murders.
Must be a huge NRA membership there.

[NK]

The USA homocide rate/100,000 is about 5. And yes, location and race of the perps and victims skew those numbers significantly. If you live in AA enclaves in Newark, Camden, New haven, St Louis, Detroit, South Central LA etc-- the rates are dramatically higher-- if you live in Whitish New canaan Ct or Montana, or Korean majority neighs in SoCal or NJ-- the homicide rate is Finland-like. Fun with numbers!

[narciso]

Using Justified as a guide, it's curious how the Detrot mob (#27th) in that survey, seems to always be sending shooters to Harlan (#16), how does that happen,

[henry]

Gus, STL has had a booming homicide industry for a long time. I wonder if East St L is still worse.

[narciso]

Which in itself, is a reason to drop the report in the circular file,

[Melinda Romanoff]

I wouldn't trust those SheeeKawGoo crime statistics. Relabelling is the norm here.

[NK]

Henry-- as you may recall my son is StLouU student about to graduate (I'm telling him to fill his Ford Focus with gas and point it towards Wisc!). A trip over the bridge to So. Illinois and East St Lou Ill, is very perilous journey these days. Very perilous. East St Louis Ill is a monstrous place.

[Agent J]

narciso- KC use to be the training field for CHI..Det exports to different locations..

[NK]

MelR-- there is a ChiTown blogger who maintains data of ChiTown homicides block by block. You should check that out for data.

[Melinda Romanoff]

NK-

Crossing the Big Muddy at Dubuque isn't too risky, just avoid the Eisenhower expressway, and stay on 80. And don't gawk when going over the limestone pit.

[narciso]

Kentucky is #15th, among overall gun deaths, well I didn't know about that, I know every season the Detroit mob sends someone down to Harlan, and they often don't make it back, then again Raylan rarely missses.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Must be an ex-cop. Any hints as to the name?

[henry]

NK, yup the old "Gateway to the East" is as bad as it gets. The other eastern oases (Chicago, Camden, the Bronx, Detroit) are tame by comparison.

[Have Blue]

To one of NK's points at 10:38. I currently work in a bedroom community just north of Hartford, CT which has a significant gang presence . Soon after I stated here in 2008 or 2009 there was an incident at a bus stop in town where someone fired 16 shots at a seventeen year old who was boarding a bus.

The police chiefs response was to say at a press conference, "The public has nothing to fear. We are certain this was not a random event. Someone was definitely specifically targeting this individual."

Note that all sixteen 9mm rounds missed their intended target (and anyone else).

[Extraneus]

If only these people could be disarmed and herded into concentration camps, gun violence could be whipped once and for all.

[James D.]

Have Blue, that's amazing, and horrifying. What kind of human being would step up to a microphone and say such a thing? And what sort of idiots (at best) would allow him to keep his job once he did?

I wonder if the police chief's logic would apply if it was his teenage child, or spouse, or next-door neighbor who had had sixteen shorts fired at him?

[Marlene]

Last week a 13 year old sixth grader committed suicide in Thorndike,Maine.(Dear Lord.) The police are still investigating and the Bangor Daily won't release her name. I might be way off base,but if she had used a gun that fact would probably be in blaring headlines.
rse,the comments in the Bangor Daily are scathing about the way this particular school district has handled this.Parents are accusing the school officials of ignoring reports that the girl was bullied.Also,the school district has taken control over the "correct" grieving process.In a small town,the parents and community can push back against the "experts".

[James D.]

And the idiocy of the day from Nanny Bloomberg (does the man ever open his mouth without something either stupid, horribly offensive, borderline fascist, or sometimes all three at once, coming out?):

Following a series of arrests including State. Sen. Malcolm Smith Tuesday morning over an alleged plot to fix the upcoming New York City mayoral race, Mayor Michael Bloomberg offered his theory on the scheme.

Bloomberg said he believes the opportunity for the kind of corruption alleged against the political leaders arose because political parties are part and parcel of New York City’s elections.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/04/02/bloomberg-blames-partisan-elections-for-alleged-election-rigging-plot/

Will he EVER shut up and go away?

[NK]

HaveBlue!! -- nice to hear from you.The 16 gunshots north of Hartford sound like Bloomfield. There are also constant gunshots heard in Simsbury Ct where my daughter went to all-girls school for 4 years. Actually, the Ct State Police shooting Range is there, so on nice days when her dorm window was open she could hear the troopers blasting away with their 9mms and Shotguns. PS: what do you make of the soon to be enacted Single Party Dem gun laws in Ct?

[NK]

JamesD@11:39-- short answer NO. In 2014 Bloomie goes back to BloombergLLC, including Bloomberg News-- with that giant media megaphone he'll annoy the WHOLE WORLD with Life According to Bloomie!

[Have Blue]

The latest thing in Hartford seems to be multi-location shootings, where police will find victims in two or more places several blocks apart. Two such incidents in the last week or so. Reports rarely give any details on the victims or their associations if any. Always imply that the police are baffled about motives, "trying to figure out why this might have occurred."

[Greg Q]

It would be interesting to see a comparison between Chicago v the rest of the state, or Chicago Metro Area v the rest of the state.

So much can be hidden when you hide the relevant numbers in a bunch of trash.

[NK]

MelR-- the "EveryBlock" Blog has been abandoned, but the block by block data lives on at RedEye Blog: " ■or read our primer on visualizing this data.
This application is based on Homicide Report, created for the Los Angeles Times by Ken Schwencke. It was adapted for use in Chicago by Ryan Mark, Chris Groskopf, Joe Germuska and Brian Boyer." http://blog.apps.chicagotribune.com/2010/03/04/quickly-visualize-and-map-a-data-set-using-google-fusion-tables/

[NK]

GregQ@11:57-- I agree with that completely.

[Have Blue]

James D - At about the same time frame there was a notorious incident in Hartford. An infant was run down on the street by a hit and run driver. Witnesses described the car as traveling approximately 100 mph on a city street and making no effort to stop after the accident. IIRC it was described as a Suburu, and the story was a nonstop outrage in the press. When it was reported that the driver was younger than sixteen and was driving away from an attempted drive-by shooting the story disappeared from the headlines instantly.

[Ignatz Ratzkywatzky]

--An infant was run down on the street by a hit and run driver.--

Probably just a Planned Parenthood employee trying to help out with another one of those botched abortions.

[Rick Ballard]

"If the topic is making mental health part of a robust background check system, and denying guns to people judged to be at risk of suicide, then yes, the suicide rate is relevant."

Who shall judge? Mental health "professionals" who may determine a desire to own a firearm is an obvious sign of mental disorder? Will spurious statistical modeling be used to develop scientistic criteria to be used to determine who is sane enough to own a firearm?

Perhaps we should closely examine the background, experience and credentials of the "mental health professionals" who left Loughner and Lanza free to pursue their life dreams?

[Gus]

500 plus murders in Chicago last year.
75% of those are directly related to

A)African-American males, with no education, no moral compass, and no job prospects.
B)White NRA TEA BAGGER GUN NUTS, CLINGING TO THEIR BIBLES,
C)Sarah Palin
or
D) SEE A. above.

Can anyone give me a list of offenses committed at TEA PARTIES or by TEA PARTY ATTENDEES???

[Porchlight]

The DaTech Guy and Stacy McCain seem to think she could have been a difference for Curtis Bostic in the SC-1 primary and may have lost the seat to the Colbert sister.

Actually if you read the update at the bottom of DaTechGuy's piece:

Update:Bostic lost by 13.16% Palin choose wisely.

I think he meant "chose wisely." At any rate he seems to realize now that Palin couldn't have made the difference.

[NK]

The Political Class in Ct is just gross-- absolutely grotesque. The Stop, Question, Frisk and CrimeStat methods started in NYC 19 yo and successfully used there and L.A., Houston Dallas etc, would work just as well in hartford. bridgeport, New haven and New London Ct. but no... never happen. The Dem Single party political class would rather have Black and Mexican gangbangers shoot up their neighborhoods, rather than implemented these measures which would piss off the Grievance Industry and black voters. So the black liberals are OK with the shootings, and the Mexican open border types are OK with the shootings and white liberals are fine with the shootings (they take place in THOSE NEIGHBs) and instead they impose mindless and useless restrictions on the law abiding. Just gross.

[Melinda Romanoff]

NK-

Using the Trib for data is a null set for me. Accuracy in exchange for access is their motto. And is why they lulled in bankruptcy for so long. Talk about bitter clingers to a dead business model.

[NK]

RickB-- and didn't the Holmes guy have a check up from the neck up at U Colo-Denver that showed he was nutz, but no medical steps were taken?

[Ignatz Ratzkywatzky]

The crassest and least classy FLOTUS ever magnanimously declares to invited guests that "This is your house, too".
Leaving side that it is only the American People's house and she's just a low rent tenant who gets evicted in three+ years, it is doubly ironic for her to say it when her hubby is cynically disallowing public tours of "our house too" as a political ploy.
Beneath contempt.

[Threadkiller]

This again??

The Immigration and Naturalization Service:

“Interpretation 324.2 Reacquisition of citizenship lost by marriage.”

Interpretation 324.2(a)(7):

“(7) Restoration of citizenship is prospective . Restoration to citizenship under any one of the three statutes is not regarded as having erased the period of alienage that immediately preceded it.

The words “shall be deemed to be a citizen of the United States to the same extent as though her marriage to said alien had taken place on or after September 22, 1922″, as they appeared in the 1936 and 1940 statutes, are prospective and restore the status of native-born or natural-born citizen as of the date citizenship was reacquired.”

Interpretation 324.2:

“The effect of naturalization under the above statutes was not to erase the previous period of alienage, but to restore the person to the status IF NATURALIZED, NATIVE, OR NATURAL-BORN CITIZEN, as determined by her status prior to loss.” [...] http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-45077/0-0-0-48575.html

From Interpretation 324.2, the INS clearly states that each delineation, “naturalized, native, or natural-born citizen“, is a separate status. I have noticed there are a lot of Obama supporters people on Free Republic who insist that a native-born Citizen is the same as a natural-born Citizen. Well, that is not true and this is the proof that they are not. This proves that native-born and natural-born are NOT synonymous. You will see that the official recognition by the federal government is that native-born and natural-born should be separately delineated. If you recall in 2008 on Obama's own campaign website Fight The Smears, it stated:

'The truth is, Barack Obama was born in the state of Hawaii in 1961, a native citizen of the United States of America.'

Does Article 2 Section 1 Clause 5 of the U.S. Constitution specifically call for a native born Citizen to be president? No it does not.

http://obamareleaseyourrecords.blogspot.com/2013/04/ins-proves-obama-not-eligible.html?m=1

The courts have redefined "or"?

[lyle]

What kind of human being would step up to a microphone and say such a thing? And what sort of idiots (at best) would allow him to keep his job once he did?

Janet "Bruno" Napolitano/The Obama Administration

[Gus]

Everything Obama's admin does is a lie or a diversion from the truth.
Obamacare was designed to bring us to SINGLE PAYER Socialism.
Obama's Stimulus, SPENT 4 TIMES THUS FAR, was designed to pay off POLITICAL ALLIES.
Obama's foreign policies are designed to placate the MUZZTARD BRUTHAHOOD and Russia.
Obama's choices of cabinet members was specifically designed to have IDEOLOGUES in lock step with his IDEOLOGY.
NONE OF IT WORKS.

[Threadkiller]

SEAN HANNITY: What about those who would have a path to a green card? Would you support that if the border was secured first?

SEN. TED CRUZ: The problem with the green card is the green card is a permanent legal residence status and anyone who has a green card is eligible for citizenship within five years. And so if someone can get a green card, that is a path to citizenship.

And it worries me, even if someone goes to the back of the line, what it means is that if you’re somebody in another country who wants to come to the United States and you followed the rules --you applied to come legally -- if we pass something that allows those here illegally to achieve citizenship it means you’re a chump for having stayed in your own country and followed the rules because you were not able to live here and raise your family and enjoy the tremendous blessings and liberty in the United States simply because you followed the rules. And I think we need to uphold the rule of law and we need to be fair to legal immigrants. Legal immigrants get left behind in a lot of these discussions.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/ted-cruz-bashes-citizenship-pathway-marco-rubio-supports/2112706

One of these POTUS hopefuls is not like the other...

[narciso]

That would be logical and simple, that's why it's not on the table;

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/03/us/politics/house-groups-immigration-bill-takes-shape.html?ref=politics&_r=1&

[Have Blue]

NK - Spent many pleasant weekends at that range back in the 90's. Did my initial training with the crew from the State Police in '89 shooting Smith & Wesson K frame .357s, and the Remington 870.

Later shot 9mm and AR15s there with the State guys. (We did the transition training to Beretta 9mm at the company range at the plant.)

Shot an H&K MP5SD there back in '90. Fully suppressed, the loudest noise it makes is the bolt closing and the brass tinkling on the pavement. Amazing how loud falling brass is when there is no other sound.

Blumenthal claims that "law enforcement" supports their efforts but a significant number of the guns I own (including several that would be outlawed or severely restricted by both the CT and proposed federal regs) were bought from the people who ran that range.

[narciso]

Really he is just figuring this out now;

http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2013/04/03/maher-bloombergs-nanny-state-makes-me-want-join-tea-party-and-marry-a

[narciso]

And from down under, I think Flannery and Viner is code for something;

http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/keane_is_busted/

[NK]

Have Blue-- is there a private gun club next to the State range on that road?

My lawn Gnome sized daughter (now in college in DaBronx) told me that when she wanted to rent some time and blast away at the range with a 9mm "to see what it's like" She never did, and given my daughter's temperament, keeping her unarmed is probably a good thing for the world.

[narciso]

So the plot sickens;

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/04/02/Mark-Kelly-s-Video-Failed-To-Show-He-Was-Denied-On-Handgun-Purchase-Too

[Melinda Romanoff]

Seems like ultrametromale Matt Lauer has rankled those in Southhampton whom turn their noses up at the idea of 30 strong fresh horse manure.

But think of the sustainability!

[AliceH]

The St. Louis Murder City point has been well made already, but here's some murder stats:

Greater STL (2010): 219 homicides (7.6 per 100K)
STL county(2009): 36 homicides (3.6 per 100K)
STL CITY (2010): 144 homicides (45.1 per 100K)

Same gun laws. Go figure.

[narciso]

Darnok, when the walls fell,

[NK]

AliceH -- thanks. Those numbers make the dramatic point about how a small subset affects states' violent crime as a whole. St Lou and KC dramaticallly skew the State of Mo homicide rate. Mo. doesn't need different State laws, it needs somebody with guts to go to the neigbs in St Lou and KC where the illegal gun owners are using the guns to commit crimes and arrest them, and lock them away, until the guns are driven off the streets. But noooo... that would be hard and upset the racial grievance industry, so as far as dems are concerned, it's better to go after the law abiding.Just disgusting.

[rse]

Marlene-tou have an ed lab in Maine that has viewed itself as responsible for implementing Kurt Lewin's social action research via education for decades. I shudder to think what is going on there at the moment but the district knows and it must not come out. Similar to now trying to argue Bev Hall was indicted for being a boss with high expectations. So not the story it sent me on a very successful fishing expedition.

A woman by the name of Anita Hoge became very involved in PA in ferreting out all kinds of wonderful info on how these assessments that have now been nationalized via the 2009 Stimulus Act and Common Core in earlier forms were seeking all kinds of manipulative psych info. There was a suicide in one such district in PA that set all this in motion in 80s and early 90s that went a long way to discrediting OBE in name.

This is a tricky time and that district will want to keep its practices under wraps whatever the actual effect in this situation. Having the change the child and determine what it takes to break their values and beliefs from an emotional level is just not a good thing to discuss right now. As it is all being nationalized. Like Newtown.

I came to link to this story on Discriminations.http://www.discriminations.us/2013/04/the-stimulus-stimulated-extensive-racial-set-asides/

If you add that story to the Inclusive Competitiveness initiative to push all this money at urban start-ups to get to low carbon that I wrote about Monday, and we have a massive shakedown going on now at all levels. And ramping up.

[Have Blue]

NK - Metacon Gun Club just south. Never shot there but Google Earth shows a covered firing line with a 100 yard range.

[Greg Q]

So, how does the murder rate in Chicago compare to Austin TX?

[NK]

Have Blue-- thought so. Who knows, maybe I'll check it out between referee gigs and rent some time-- before Drunkin' Danny Malloy shuts them down.

[NK]

Austin = 3/100,000 (2011), more than 6 times Lower than ChiTown.

[AliceH]

I didn't read the article. Does it give any context for trends? I mean, as bad as the STL stats I posted are, the year-over-year numbers are trending downward since they peaked in 1993.

[James D.]

narciso, Maher says that now, but he'll always vote Dem (and give them loads of cash and free publicity on his show, etc) in the end.

[narciso]

Hemenway in the Harvard study, is another longtime Joyce Foundation recipient.

[narciso]

As is Azrael, it's just a coincidence that these same people push the same reports;

http://journals.lww.com/epidem/Fulltext/2002/09000/Household_Firearm_Ownership_and_Suicide_Rates_in.6.aspx

[Have Blue]

NK - There are places a lot close if you live near where I think you do. Blue Trail Range in Wallingford is right off Route 68 about two miles east of the I-91 interchange.

Nice range. Used to shoot there quite a bit. Indoor range for .22s, twenty five yard pistol and 100 yard rifle range, skeet, the 200 yard rifle range was closed the last I knew.

Range store and cafeteria also.

[James D.]

Kind of OT, did anybody see this article at Slate that Insty linked last night?

http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2013/04/i_married_young_what_are_the_rest_of_you_waiting_for.html

Interesting piece, about the benefits of marrying young. She makes very strongly the point that part of marriage is putting the other person first, just as they do for you.

And of course the Leftists can't handle that - Amanda Marcotte had to write a rebuttal (which I won't link to; I used to check out Pandagon to see what the other side thinks, until the bile and hate and narcissicm just got too much for me), and sure enough, it's all about the selfishness and narcissicm and "what's in it for me."

[narciso]

They've put up some fine SkyDragon netting, just in case;

http://netrightdaily.com/2013/04/imf-calls-on-u-s-to-institute-500-billion-carbon-tax/#ixzz2PQArPcSq

[NK]

Wallingford is indeed a lot closer. In spring, I happen to be in the Simsbury area a fair bit for soccer referee assignments. Wallingford... hmmm.. there's a Sonic nearby, maybe my wife and I can do a twofer date, shooting and Sonic.

[Have Blue]

NK - Just saw your comment in the Ezra Klein thread about gun laws.

Will have zero effect on criminals (but you knew that). Gang bangers will still have guns.

Convicts just released from prison (because keeping folks locked up is cruel) will still shoot store clerks for the 25 dollars in the till.

And the honest citizen will have a harder time defending himself, and be made to feel like a monster if he even expresses a desire to.

And with that I have to leave for work. See you all tonight at about 1 am.

[Have Blue]

NK - Funny you mention the Sonic. Back in the 90's I took a female co-worker shooting there, planning on taking her to KC Barbecue in Wallingford afterwards. The shooting went well but it turned out the KC Barbecue had closed the month before.

[rse]

I am sure they did narciso. I have been trying to figure out precisely what triggered searches from all over in last few days. Found it for sure.

This will go down as the great looting by the political class. Global. What I just tracked was the Windy City, Melbourne, Toronto, Seattle, Shanghai, Singapore, Denver, and Hong Kong. Talk about reasons for coordinated mischief. Of course the imf wants that tax to line more pockets before this all blows sky high. And one former long serving mayor of a very big city and a TBTF bank.

[Captain Hate]

Per Tammy Bruce, Scotty Centerfold has been hosting BOR's show. Any comments?

[lyle]

Going shooting this afternoon! But I'm no longer going through 150 rounds. Any guesses why? Curse you, Bruno!

[boatbuilder]

That's kind of an odd list of "factors' for the "index." Different years selected for some factors, aggreggate years for others, overlapping categories. I wonder (not really) if there is any cherry-picking going on?

[lyle]

Oh, and thanks, narc, for that Tamny piece from RCP. A great read.

[jimmyk]

Interesting piece, about the benefits of marrying young.

Taranto has been fisking Marcotte on this via Twitter for several days. Marcotte is wacky, and plays as fast and loose with statistics on marriage as the gun control proponents do on guns and crime. Any correlation that supports her case will do, and she won't bother to think too much about it.

Incidentally, I've also downloaded Dream Student, even started reading it--congratulations, it looks like a good read.

And Happy Birthday to Mrs. Iggy.

[Rick Ballard]

"it needs somebody with guts to go to the neigbs in St Lou and KC where the illegal gun owners are using the guns to commit crimes and arrest them, and lock them away, until the guns are driven off the streets."

I doubt the efficacy of such a program. The composition of the predatory packs of feral males is fairly age bound (17-27) which implies a natural turnover of 10% per year. AliceH's comment about the decline in the kill rate of the St. Louis packs is much more interesting in relationship to the current tempest in a tea pot. What is diminishing the kill rate? Is there a decline in the total number of predators or have territorial boundaries been "fixed" (per Rich's COIN suggestion)? Dunno - I only know we will never see clear examination of pack behavior. Such examination would tie far too closely to the damage done by the Dem's institution of apartheid plantations as part of their genocidal War on Blacks Poverty programs (to include a Death Hut in every black neighborhood).

[NK]

RickB-- compare the homicide and gun crime rates for Cities which have adopted stop,question and frisk and those cities where the racial grievance industry prevented stops. The numbers are starkly different; the post-1993 crime decline in stop cities is far more pronounced and where the cities have wound up relative to one another makes the correlation to stops compelling. In the NYC Stop litigation, the racial grievancers admit stop reduces gun crime-- they only argue it's unfair and humiliating. wah,wah,wah...

[James D.]

jimmyk, thanks!

Marcotte isn't just wacky, she's a frighteningly representative product (and vice) of our deranged culture today.

[James D.]

I meant "voice" (but "vice" is kind of appropriate as well...)

[Porchlight]

Ah, Amanda Marcotte, former UT grad student and Austin resident. She spent many hours in the building in which I sit as I type, no doubt.

Taranto put it deliciously - she "has the hilarious distinction of having been forced to resign in disgrace from the John Edwards campaign." LOL.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323296504578398731336938160.html

[A Casual Observer]

Here's the problem and here's the solution:

The problem isn't that crazy people are allowed to buy guns.

The problem is that immoral people are allowed to buy guns.

Instill morality in our youth and the crime rate will go way, way down.

[NK]

Porch-- I have no idea who Marcotte is, but Taranto's fisking of her is hilarious; she comes across as a complete smug/clueless prat.

[Danube of Thought on iPad]

Low sniviler Joe Klein on the comic failure of Obamacare:

"One thing is clear: Obamacare will fail if he doesn’t start paying more attention to the details of implementation, if he doesn’t start demanding action. And, in a larger sense, the notion of activist government will be in peril—despite the demographics flowing the Democrats’ way—if institutions like the VA and Obamacare don’t deliver the goods. Sooner or later, the Republican party may come to understand that its best argument isn’t about tearing down the government we have, but making it run more efficiently.

"Sooner or later, the Democrats may come to understand that making it run efficiently is the prerequisite for maintaining power."

Great advice for the GOP: don't dismantle this ridiculous monster, just promise to tweak it better than the folks who forced it on the country. God do I hope the Republicans unite in opposition to anything but repeal.

[Jim Eagle]

Mel,

Southampton Town. Laurer actually lives more in Water Mill at "Wind Hill" on Day Lily Lane, off of Scuttlehole Road between Atlantic Golf Club and Channing Daughters Winery. Where he is, is farm and horse country. Just down the road is the site of the Hampton Classic, one of the largest world class equestrian eventing venues.

Have no idea who would be turning up their noses since the area is horse country except for Atlantic and Ed Gordon's 3 Ponds Farm which has its own Rees Jones designed 18 hole golf course (which I have the honor of playing once). BTW, it was up for sale last I looked for a cool $65 million.

[Extraneus]

Here we go.

[NK]

JiB-- Edward S Gordon is an odd duck, but somehow in a good way.