Hindsight Is 20/20

Alan Rozenshtein offers a grain of salt to the ex post geniuses who claim the Boston bombing is a clear intelligence failure.

Although I mostly concur it is not too soon to label it a 'non-success', and do keep in mind - like Tamerlan Tsarnaev, Rozenshtein is the kind of guy who could probably elude an FBI surveillance. I know the feeling.

 

Comments

[Mark Folkestad]

First?

[narciso]

The fact, that this is the fifth time, such a thing has happened suggests the system is broken, TM.

[Mark Folkestad]

Agreed, Narciso.

[narciso]

Then again, I didn't go to Harvard, so what do I know,

http://freebeacon.com/five-terrorists-who-struck-after-being-interviewed-by-the-fbi/

[Melinda Romanoff]

I still think the Malthusians in this administration want to use an attack for their own ends. And it will be difficult to dissuade me of that belief.

[narciso]

BHL, to the redcourtesy phone;

http://www.chron.com/news/world/article/Car-bomb-targets-French-embassy-in-Libya-4455057.php

[Jim Eagle]

Another Harvard know-it-all under 30. What's new?

[narciso]

'this isn't the droid, we're looking for' right;

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/04/22/dhs-official-provides-new-details-maintains-innocence-of-saudi-national-once-considered-a-person-of-interest-in-boston-bombings/

[DoT on iPad]

"New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg didn’t fault the government but argued that, in light of the violence, 'our interpretation of the Constitution [will] have to change.'"

The day our interpretation of the Constitution changes according to Michael Bloombeg's wishes may just turn out to be the day I embark upon a shooting spree.

[jimmyk]

Nice that these Ivy Leaguers are discovering "hindsight bias" now that The One is in office. Not so much with Bush and 9/11.

But the real issue is whether there is a bias to tread lightly when Muslims are under suspicion. Then hindsight bias becomes a CYA exercise.

[NK]

'Non-success'-- there's some winning jargon for you.

[James D.]

I get TM's point, but even granting it, I still think it's perfectly fair to criticize, and to hold the authorities to a possibly unfair or even impossible standard.

For two reasons. First, because they volunteered for their jobs. They walked into them eyes open, they wanted the power and the authority and the priviledges tat come with it. And they've asked us time and again for more and more money, and power, and to restrict our freedoms, because they know best how to protect us. They've raised the bar themselves by doing that.

Second, and even more importantly, we citizens are subject to an increasing number of "strict liability" laws - it doesn't matter if the law/regs recently changed and we didn't (or even couldn't, reasonably) know; or if we tried our best to comply - there are a whole host of things that, if we do them, we're guilty under the law. Motive and intent don't matter. If our lawmakers want to subject us to that standard, and our law enforcement will implement it, then they ought to be subject to the same strict liability in return. Fair is fair.

If they don't like it, they can start by dismantling the reams and reams of incomprehensible, often contradictory and sometimes impossible to comply with laws on the books. Until then, I've got less than zero sympathy for anybody in government or intelligence or law enforcement, at least as far as facing criticism for their actions in Boston is concerned.

[Melinda Romanoff]

James D.-

Did you read a book that describes these arbitrary rules recently? Is there a way to combat this stifling form of government other than just withdrawing from society?

(PS. I think I'm going to have to pick up some of your stuff if you keep writing this lucidly here.)

[DoT on iPad]

I'd like to know why the Russian tip didn't trigger an application for a FISA warrant.

[narciso]

The Journal asked that question, in their Editorial yesterday.

[sbwaters]

Don't withdraw from society; withdraw excess government from society.

[NK]

DoT@1:17-- that is a very fair question... and not mere hindsight. A tap on their cell phones would have saved lives and dozens of limbs.

[BB Key]

Big Sis Napolitno testifying before Senate Judiciary on C-SPAN , cannot wait until Cruz gets to quuestion her .

[James D.]

Mel, I haven't read it, but I was thinking of "Three Felonies a Day". but also about the incidents in NYC (there were 2 or 3 of them in the last year) where people who were travellng through with a gun (locked in a case, etc) and actually reported it to authorities as they thought they were supposed to were arrested (and charged with a felony in at least one case).

But also the gibson Guitar raid (wrong kind of wood, even though it used to be legal), and the little girl who got fined $500 for bringing home a wounded bird and saving it, because it was on an endangered list or somesuch.

The problem, as I understand it, is that short of living in a cave, you can't escape it - government just gets bigger and bigger, and regulates more and more aspects of life. And the rules aren't always (or even usually) enforced, but they're there, and can be brought to bear whenever someone in an position of authority gets a bee in their bonnet about someone or something.

At the end of the day, though, it's really simple for me. I actually believe what it says in the Constitution, and in the Declaration of Independence. We're all equal. We are all citizens, with inalienable rights, and all power flows FROM us to TEMPORARILY ELECTED leaders who are NO BETTER than we are, with NO MORE RIGHTS AND PRIVILEDGES than the rest of us, who are subject to the SAME LAWS AND RULES as everyone else.

I may be naive, but I really do believe that, and expect that the men and women who take oaths to protect and defend the Cnstitution to actually do so.

[narciso]

Sounds like the excuse for ignoring the bin al shibh call from Yemen;

http://reason.com/blog/2013/04/23/why-didnt-the-fbi-take-the-tsarnaev-bros

[NK]

Ted Cruz and Butch Napolitano.... the referee will have to step in and stop that one.

OT-- well at least someone seems to be going after Corzine the criminal-- Louis Freeh as bankrutcy trustee sues Corzine: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-23/corzine-sued-by-trustee-freeh-over-mf-global-failure.html

[Rocco]

I'd like to know who exactly in the Boston Office of the FBI, disseminated the intelligence offered by the Russians? And how could they not recognize the older brother once his pictures surfaced? FAIL!

[Melinda Romanoff]

Baucus retiring!?!?

[maryrose]

" Baucus retiring"
Mel: I think he knows the Senate is going Republican in 2014.

[Melinda Romanoff]

maryrose-

Not just yet, with this new level of fraud, a lot can happen.

[Clarice]

I think 5 incidents where the FBI interviewed people who shortly afterward committed acts of terror is enough. The FBI counter terrorism operation is in my opinion a patent failure as is the entire ICE operation.

[Rick Ballard]

Mel,

The "hot key" is the 15% OHP limit for the Northeastern run insurance skimmers. If they don't get their begging bowls filled they'll turn the heat up on BOzocare through premium bumps to the point where fraud can't save the Dems. Right now, it appears they believe the "kinder, gentler" GOP plods will offer a better deal than the Commiecrats.

I'm watching for a little more organization on the part of the medical profession as well. The correct political move for them is to steadily dump Medicare patients, especially if they're located in swing states.

The insurance grifters have the stronger hand. They can turn BOzocare into pure Commiecrat poison.

[Captain Hate]

I think he knows the Senate is going Republican in 2014.

I have faith in the party of stoopid to squander any and all opportunities

[Cecil Turner]

Alan Rozenshtein offers a grain of salt to the ex post geniuses . . .

But here’s the thing: before last week, the Tsarnaevs’ homelands were far from the public consciousness. As The Onion satirically points out, Americans likely don’t even know enough about Chechens to stereotype them.

Oh, please. Yeah, the average geographic imbecile probably can't find either Chechnya (or the Czech Republic) on a map. But we've been putting up with hand-wringing stories (like this one) for years about how evil George Bush emboldened Putin's persecution of the Chechens with the WoT:

Even before Putin became Russia's President in early 2000, and long before the Twin Towers fell, he had invoked the idea of a war against global terrorism to justify Russia's war in Chechnya. The terrorism aspect, at least, was true.

Yeah, it was. Also sensational and interesting was the Russian use of a crowd-control nerve agent in Moscow. This is hardly obscure stuff. Most folks would probably not choose them first as a likely suspect--because their targets have been almost entirely Russian--but the idea that "Russian/terrorist" wouldn't bring "Chechen" to mind is nonsense.

and do keep in mind - like Tamerlan Tsarnaev, Rozenshtein is the kind of guy who could probably elude an FBI surveillance.

I'm not buying this at all. And this bit from the linked story is also a crock:

But because Tsarnaev's name was misspelled, it was not matched with the 2011 entry in the TECS system, the official told the AP.

That might explain the flight out . . . but Tsarnaev got back into the US because he had a green card (otherwise he would've needed a visa). If they're seriously suggesting we can't match the passenger list with the entry on a green card, and that with the electronic record of an investigation . . . well, it ain't just broke, it's ridiculous. And somebody needs to be fired.

[maryrose]

CT;
I agree. Someone screwed up big time and it just shows how ineffective the FBI and TSA are. All this money spent and we still have terrorist attacks. If that CUNY professor had had his legs blown off I think he would be singing a different tune.

[NK]

CT@10:40-- agree completely. this losing track of Tamerlan on his Jihadi Tourism trek -- is outrageous. Butch Napolitano has got to be tossed out on her fat ass. Outrageous!

[Ignatz]

--But here’s the thing: before last week, the Tsarnaevs’ homelands were far from the public consciousness.--

So the FBI rates terrorist threats by the odds somebody could find their homeland on Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?
This is an argument to make us feel safer and more confident in counter terrorism?

[Danube of Thought]

Here is a summary of what Glenn Beck is claiming about a Saudi being involved. I can't determine whether he claims to have seen the documentation he's describing, nor--if he has--why he doesn't display it. Glennbeckreleaseyourrecords.

[narciso]

Yes, that raises more questions, then it answers,
so he first he was on the NTC, then not, then it wasn't him, then another guy with the same last name, who was 1,000 miles away from where he should be.

Then again the DHS, had that twit, with the talking points from Benghazi, far cry from Division.

[bgates]

the idea that "Russian/terrorist" wouldn't bring "Chechen" to mind is nonsense

Rozenshtein (3rd yr Hahvahd Law) quotes not only The Onion, but also The West Wing in support of that idea. After all, there are only so many parts of the world the government can keep track of. He actually says that.

[narciso]

the Kirghizstan/Kasazktan trope is a common one with Sorkin, he used a variation of it, on Sports Night, when he wanted to seem sophisticated.

[centralcal]

This blog being about "hindsight" and all, I thought I would share this short piece:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/go-ahead-admit-it-george-w-bush-is-a-good-man-20130422

[cathyf]

"New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg didn’t fault the government but argued that, in light of the violence, 'our interpretation of the Constitution [will] have to change.'"

If the Second Amendment doesn't apply to "assault weapons" maybe the First Amendment doesn't apply to Muslims?

[Clarice]

Precisely, Cecil.

[pagar]

No doubt about it! What will be done to correct it?

http://weaselzippers.us/2013/04/23/official-fbis-decision-to-scrub-islam-from-counterterrorism-documents-hampered-probe-into-boston-terrorists/

[Cecil Turner]

Well, apparently the story has shifted:

Napolitano addressed the matter during a hearing on immigration legislation before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Napolitano said "the system pinged when he was leaving the United States" for Russia in early 2012. But she noted: "By the time he returned, all investigations -- the matter had been closed."

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., challenged Napolitano, saying the FBI told him they had no knowledge of the trip. Graham had earlier claimed that the suspect's name was apparently misspelled when he traveled, so it never went into the system. Another lawmaker suggested he could have traveled under an alias.

I'm not sure whether to file this under "first liar doesn't stand a chance" or "things Lindsey Graham believes." But either way, it's a bit more believable (if no more excusable).

[cathyf]

Well the real question is simply "five out of how many?"

Five out of 1000, pretty lousy. Five out of a million, I might be willing to cut the FBI some slack.

[narciso]

I think they are doing this backwards;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2313709/Boston-bombing-U-S-investigators-interview-suspects-Tamerlan-Dzhokhar-Tsarnaevs-parents-Dagestan.html

[daddy]

Official: FBI’s Decision To Scrub Islam From Counterterrorism Documents Hampered Probe Into Boston Terrorists…

And from an excellent American Thinker story earlier in the week,

Page 261 of Obama's The Audacity of Hope, in which he writes, "I will stand with them [Arab and Pakistani Americans, among others] should the political winds shift in an ugly direction."