Harvard 1, Strawman 0

To the delight of NY Times headline writers, some politicized Harvard scholars (from the Warren School?) provide an answer to a question nobody is asking:

For Medicare, Immigrants Offer Surplus, Study Finds

Medicare? I thought the controversy was about whether illegal immigrants were net "takers" of government services directed to the young and poor, such as public education, food stamps, emergency room services and so on. Does anyone really think elderly Hispanics are coming to this country to retire, collecting Social Security and Medicare benefits for which they are not eligible?

But not so fast! Did I say "illegal imigrants"? My bad:

Researchers included the contributions of legal residents who were not citizens, a group that is eligible for Medicare if certain requirements are met; unauthorized immigrants; and citizens who were born abroad.

It was not clear how much of the surplus was made up of earnings by immigrants in the country illegally, who are ineligible for most government programs.

So this study is not even looking at just illegal immigrants? Then why bother?

The Times eventually notes that immigrants (legal and illegal) tend to be young; their current net contribution to Social Security (and presumably Medicare) has been a commonplace of the debate.

The Times also includes some appropriately dismissive comments. My fave:

Robert Rector, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, who was an author of the institute’s report this month [2013, 2007], said that looking at Medicare alone was not very useful, as it was just one slice of the entire entitlement pie. And the large immigrant youth population, which the study spends most of its time on, is familiar, he said.

“It’s a yawner of a study,” he said. “Young people don’t get Medicare. We don’t need several Ph.D.’s to tell us that.”

But some cheerleading is also included:

The finding “pokes a hole in the widespread assumption that immigrants drain U.S. health care spending dollars,” said Leah Zallman, an instructor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and the lead author of the study.

Pokes a hole? Despite not looking at Medicaid and emergency room spending, where critics claim the real spending is ocurring? Despite not separating illegal immigrants from high tech H1-B visa holders working for Apple?

More hilarity (my emphasis):

“There’s this strong belief that immigrants are takers,” said Leighton Ku, the director of the Center for Health Policy Research at George Washington University. “This shows they are contributing hugely. Without immigrants, the Medicare trust fund would be in trouble sooner.” The belief prevails, for example, among some opponents of immigration reform.

The Times does not cite anyone expressing the belief that immigrants, legal and illegal, are a current net drain on Medicare. Such a person may exist, but let's look at the 2013 Heritage study (of controversial authorship) mentioned by the Times.

The focus is on illegal immigrants and all government services, not only Medicare. However, we are offered clues that current Medicare expenditures are not an issue by passages such as this:

As noted, there currently are few unlawful immigrants over age 50. This may be because unlawful immigrants, arriving as young adults over the past 15 to 20 years, have simply not yet reached age 50. It may also be that unlawful immigrants, being unable to access the U.S. welfare and retirement systems under current law, simply go back to their country of origin as they get older. If one assumes that under current law, most unlawful immigrants will return to their country of origin around age 55, the lifetime fiscal costs of unlawful immigrants under current law are comparatively low: only around $1 trillion.

Per Heritage, bringing illegals onto the books will also boost tax receipts in the short term:

The present analysis assumes that at the current time, some 55 percent of unlawful immigrant workers work on the books and 45 percent work off the books. The analysis assumes that if amnesty were enacted, 95 percent of future employment of the former unlawful immigrants would occur on the books. This would increase payments of federal and state income taxes, FICA taxes, and other labor taxes (such unemployment and work compensation fees) by nearly $14 billion per year.

However, the short term boost is more than offset by the long term consequences:

It is often argued that unlawful immigrants have a positive impact on U.S. taxpayers because they pay taxes into the Social Security trust fund. Unlawful immigrant workers do pay Social Security or FICA taxes; the median unlawful immigrant worker currently pays about $2,070 per year in FICA taxes.[49]

If amnesty encouraged all former unlawful immigrant workers to work on the books, that number would rise to around $3,770. A worker who paid this amount into Social Security for 35 years would contribute $132,000. Upon retiring, this individual would receive $14,650 per year in Social Security benefits and $10,074 per year in Medicare benefits.[50] Over an average span of 18 years of retirement, the total Social Security and Medicare benefits received by this individual would come to $445,000. Thus, the retirement benefits received would be more than three times the taxes paid into the system.[51]

Moreover, taxes and benefits must be viewed holistically. It is a mistake to look at the Social Security trust fund in isolation. Unlawful immigrants draw benefits from many other government programs besides Social Security. If an individual pays $3,700 per year into the Social Security trust fund but simultaneously draws a net $25,000 per year (benefits minus taxes) out of general government revenue, the solvency of government has not improved. In reality, other taxpayers, including many Social Security recipients, will face higher taxes in order to subsidize unlawful immigrant households.

Lest you wonder whether Heritage was breaking new ground here, let's flash back to 2004 and a CIS study estimating the tax impact of illegal immigrants on the Federal coffers:

Social Security and Medicare. Although we find that the net effect of illegal households is negative at the federal level, the same is not true for Social Security and Medicare. We estimate that illegal households create a combined net benefit for these two programs in excess of $7 billion a year, accounting for about 4 percent of the total annual surplus in these two programs. However, they create a net deficit of $17.4 billion in the rest of the budget, for a total net loss of $10.4 billion. Nonetheless, their impact on Social Security and Medicare is unambiguously positive. Of course, if the Social Security totalization agreement with Mexico signed in June goes into effect, allowing illegals to collect Social Security, these calculations would change.

That may all be obvious to you, but I bet you don't have a Harvard PhD. Or write Times headlines.

SINCE YOU ASKED: The Times includes a dismissive quote from Gordon Hanson:

Gordon Hanson, a professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, who has worked on migration issues for 20 years, said there was still no comprehensive nonpartisan analysis of the fiscal consequences of putting illegal immigrants on the books.

Federal coffers tend to benefit from immigrants in the country illegally, he said, with contributions to programs like Social Security and Medicare that those immigrants cannot draw on later. State and local governments, on the other hand, have to absorb more of the costs, like education for their children and emergency room visits.

This summarizes a paper presented by Prof. Hanson circa 2006.

EVEN TIMES READERS... The reader revolt in the Times comments section is shocking. One wonders if the Times editors are capable of noticing, or of embarrassment.

Comments

[Jeff Dobbs]

Hi, TM do you have a moment to chat about the Comments section, either here or over email?

[henry]

Dang. I root for strawman when it plays Harvard.

TM, talk to Hit.

[narciso]

Well in this paper, there's an early plug for the stimulus act;

http://sphhs.gwu.edu/departments/healthpolicy/dhp_publications/pub_uploads/dhpPublication_5A3DA49B-5056-9D20-3D47DD0AD83C829C.pdf

[rse]

The purpose of the amnesty is to get the undisputed voting majority to vote in a Nordic style welfare state plus a government led economy at the federal, state, and local levels.

Which rather makes a discussion about it in terms of current benefit levels problemmatic. The aim is to get what Harry Boyte called the cooperative commonwealth and Obama loved the idea from the time he was at Columbia onwards. And now he has power.

Think about what I linked on the previous thread about the UN's Alliance of Civilizations and its insistence that migrants are entitled to economic parity.

The most enduring illustration I see over a myriad of public policies right now is a set of interlinked gears. Engrenage.

We don't get invited to listen to Journolist phone calls or attend intl meetings where the linkages among all these initiatives are openly discussed. But they are related and gearing up and we forget that at our peril.

I have spent the last 3 days listening to "talks" and reading plans. That AOC was just icing on the cake.

We have to locate and talk about all these gears being put into place with taxpayer money to corrupt pubic officials and intimidate private ones. That's what the suppression of the Tea Party was about.

They were potentially in the way of the coup if they can capture the sleeping masses of LoFo voters.

[Janet]

TM -
"I'm not sure what sets off the filter, but it seems to dislike: links, frequent postings, long postings, and html tags. Once it decides you're bad, it appears to discriminate based on name (and possibly IP).

Bad news: it favors drive-by nymshifting trolls, and disfavors well crafted comments with embedded links and pertinent quotes by regulars.

If you're not having trouble, recommend keeping links and frequency down to a minimum. Because once you get on its bad side, discussion is impossible."

Posted by: Cecil_Turner# | May 30, 2013 at 07:38 AM

[narciso]

Ku, was 'unexpectedly with the CBPP from 1999-2008, might have been helpful to note.

Don't the Germans have a counterpart word, which I heard in another context, gleischastung 'coordination'

[Corn-fed conservative (southern strategy version)]

I thought there would be some excitement about Comey.

HotAir seems to like it.

[narciso]

There's this passage in Hanson's paper;

Immigrants are disproportionately represented at both the low end and the high end of the economic spectrum. Predictably, illegal immigrants tend to be at the low end of the skill spectrum, while legal immigrants are at the high end. The economic incentive for illegal immigration is strongest at the low end.

Which would tend to weaken that conclusion.

[peter]

Half of the inmates at the Suffolk County, New York jail are illegal aliens. They are not staying there for free.

[narciso]

So, it's a floor waz and a desert topping;

[Account Deleted]

The "controversial authorship", referring to the Richwine Dissertation is just a manifestation of prog reflux disease upon encountering reality.

The dissertation is an iteration of the Bell Curve thesis with particular import until Moar Peasants is laid to rest. There is nothing controversial about the findings reported in the dissertation. The genetic contribution to IQ is not malleable over the short (3-300 4 generations) term.

The "on the books versus off the books" argument advanced by the CMIC (Credentialed Moron In Charge) of the study is an assumption lacking foundation in reality. Off the books employment is always preferred by those who remain at the low end of the wage scale due to cognitive limitations. They may not be too bright but they're certainly bright enough to keep their reported income below benefit entitlement cut offs.

[Account Deleted]

The "controversial authorship", referring to the Richwine Dissertation is just a manifestation of prog reflux disease upon encountering reality.

The dissertation is an iteration of the Bell Curve thesis with particular import until Moar Peasants is laid to rest. There is nothing controversial about the findings reported in the dissertation. The genetic contribution to IQ is not malleable over the short (3-300 4 generations) term.

The "on the books versus off the books" argument advanced by the CMIC (Credentialed Moron In Charge) of the study is an assumption lacking foundation in reality. Off the books employment is always preferred by those who remain at the low end of the wage scale due to cognitive limitations. They may not be too bright but they're certainly bright enough to keep their reported income below benefit entitlement cut offs.

[Porchlight]

It is often argued that unlawful immigrants have a positive impact on U.S. taxpayers because they pay taxes into the Social Security trust fund.

Only the ones with fake SSNs. The ones being paid cash under the table do not pay in.

The more useful questions are 1) how much does the average illegal pay in and 2) how much does he take out. Include his dependent children in 2) as well, please.

[James D.]

Totally OT and shamelessly self-promoting - I'm still banging my head against the brick wall that is self-published book marketing.

The latest experiment is a sale. I've dropped the price of book #1 to $0.99 in hopes that (1) people will like it enough that they'll want the subsequent books, too, and (2) I'll catch enough casual buyers who're willing to spend $0.99 when they wouldn't have spent $2.99, and it'll push the book up in the Amazon rankings where it'll (in theory) start to "sell itself." We'll see.

If any of y'all know anybody who you think might like it, please pass the word on to them (and, obviously, thanks to all of you who've bought/read it already!)...

http://www.amazon.com/Dream-Student-Dreams-book-ebook/dp/B00BW3FPF4/ref=la_B00BW6L9GK_1_1_title_1_kin?ie=UTF8&qid=1369926841&sr=1-1

[James D.]

Ooh...I got through with a link!

For the typepad spam detective squad, my experience is that, 9 times out of 10 the last couple of weeks, I can post as long as I don't include a LUN (I'm on Windows 7 and Google Chrome). From my android phone, I seem to be able to post WITH LUNs with no problem as well.

[Bill in AZ]

How come Mr Ballard gets 2 posts at a time when the rest of use get none?

[Account Deleted]

Bill in AZ,

Did you sacrifice a prog to Typhuspad this morning? The benefit is not without marginal cost, minimal though it may be.

Let's see if I exorcized my wireless daemon correctly with this post.

[jimmyk]

Only the ones with fake SSNs.

I've never quite understood how this works in practice. Employers send in payroll taxes tied to fake SSNs. The SSA just happily takes the revenues, and accounts for them how? Presumably if the SSN belongs to someone else, it doesn't get recorded as a payment on their file. And a lot of those SSNs don't belong to anyone living. The SSA makes no attempt to communicate with employers to say that there's no valid account with this SSN? It's all just wink, wink, I'm happy, you're happy, thanks for the dough?

[henry]

WI voters 1, League of Women Voters 0! Appeals court upholds Voter ID Law in WI. Separate NAACP challenge faces different appellate panel. Voter ID will lower the cost of illegals in the long term (they will no longer be able to vote more bling for themselves).

[Porchlight]

jimmyk, I have had the exact same question about fake SSNs for years. What the hell happens to the money and why doesn't a flag come up in the system?

I can only guess the feds are happy to take it, no questions asked.

[Porchlight]

Thank heaven, henry. Hope it withstands the NAACP challenge too.

[Extraneus]

Great point, Jimmy.

[henry]

For rse, expansion of common core put on hold. It appears the WI legislature intends to look behind the curtain on this one.

[Bill in AZ]

"Did you sacrifice a prog to Typhuspad this morning?"

No, but I did remove LUN and got the first post through in a couple weeks.

Speaking of sacrificing progs, it wouldn't surprise me that it is a prog at TyphusPad causing this - all in good fun, of course, like the progs at the IRS, and the chief prog Holder with journalists.

[rse]

Thanks henry. Part of what I have been working on in the last few tsunami days is the link to Big Data. Even UNESCO regards the issues as ethical but it is just selling through here because of all the deceit.

I am going to a meting next week with one of the great deceivers on this point who just keeps misrepresenting the actual agenda to conservative groups. Since I do not want him to change his canned presentation I am holding fire on that one.

Can't you just see me listening to videos from the Open Source convention in Portland yesterday watching how they are presenting the common core as part of the much broader agenda?

Hubby is rolling his eyes because I am definitely in his domain. Yes, you can roll your eyes too long distance.

[henry]

Well, Big Data is a lot like nuclear fission. It mostly depends on what you do with it.

[Mark Folkestad]

A common practice of the many illegals working at my former employer, the world's largest turkey processor, was to claim so many dependents that there was no withholding. At the end of the year, they bailed out, and never filed a tax return. Early in the new year, they would show up with a new phony ID and do the same thing. The only tax these clowns would ever pay would be the FICA. And they would brag about how their fake identification got their families ample welfare benefits and handouts from the food shelf and NGOs. A plus to the economy my arse!

[Rob Crawford]

“There’s this strong belief that immigrants are takers,” said Leighton Ku, the director of the Center for Health Policy Research at George Washington University.

Prolly because of all the crime.

[Rob Crawford]

“There’s this strong belief that immigrants are takers,” said Leighton Ku, the director of the Center for Health Policy Research at George Washington University.

This "strong belief" is mainly about the illegals, and it's probably because of all the crime they commit.

[matt]

The only taxes illegal immigrants pay with any consistency are sales and excise taxes.

There is a methodology. It flows from one to another and covers social benefits and how to game the system. It is probably taught by the social welfare agencies. Much like ACORN it is perfectly happy stepping over the line with the law.

In manufacturing, one of the hard truths here in California is that if you hire a lot of Mexican/Mexican-American workers they basically form their own union without calling it such.

They dictate work flow and overtime. There is often a higher loss rate. It's a crooked system because that is what they had at home. They put several of my customers out of business in this manner.

God forbid you own a chrome or any kind of plating business because the materials usage rate versus that produced is never balanced.

[Frau Edith Steingehirn]

"Half of the inmates at the Suffolk County, New York jail are illegal aliens. They are not staying there for free."

You mean they can leave without paying for their room and board? That's poor business practice.

(btw - as long as 'Cleo stays somewhat sober, I can post without getting caught in TM's net.)

[Account Deleted]

jimmyk,

The SSA answers can be found here. They're all SWAGS but I'm sure the ARIMA models did the very best they could do.

Finding the running total for the Earnings Suspense File is a challenge which I have not, as yet, met.

[daddy]

Instalance!!!

A SHOCKER FROM TOM MAGUIRE: Politicized “research” from (Wait for it… ) Harvard and the NY Times.

[Jane]

Maybe we can get Glenn to advice TM of the Typepad problems.

[myiq2xu]

How many employers of illegal aliens will suddenly start paying them legal wages and benefits? Part of the reason they hire illegals in the first place is they work cheaper and are off the books.

[cathyf]

can I post today?

[Porchlight]

Speaking of sacrificing progs, it wouldn't surprise me that it is a prog at TyphusPad causing this - all in good fun, of course, like the progs at the IRS, and the chief prog Holder with journalists.

I would not be surprised either. If someone can find a lefty blog using this software where problems are being mentioned, I'd be interested to see it.

[cathyf]

gee, now all I need is something to say...

[jimmyk]

Thanks, Rick, but I didn't see clear answers to the questions, except to note that apparently a lot of illegals are, or were, able to apply for and "attain [sic]" legit SSNs, even though they may be ineligible for benefits based on their current status. I'm still not clear on the SSA's accounting and verification methods, though I realize it's all PAYGO. I do know that every SSN has a complete earnings history file associated with it that is used to compute benefits. What they do with these files for phony SSNs, or legit but ineligible, remains a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

[henry]

Doesn't the US pay a lump sum to Mexico to cover the "earned benefits" of Mexicans working in the US?

[pagar]

I can't get the link to work but you can find at finance/townhall.

"IRS knowingly sends Billions in Fraudulent Refunds to Illegal Immigrants
Bob Beauprez | Mar 30, 2013"

[Landru]

"Unlawful immigrant workers do pay Social Security or FICA taxes; the median unlawful immigrant worker currently pays about $2,070 per year in FICA taxes.[49]

If amnesty encouraged all former unlawful immigrant workers to work on the books, that number would rise to around $3,770"

I assume they are including the employer share. That would mean the median income of an employed illegal immigrant paying FICA was $13530. Of course, if the person is married with 2 children. he'd be sent a check for the EIC for $5200, so his FICA contribution would be erased and he'd net $3100 out of it. The authors of this "study" must assume all these people are single with no kids and haven't heard of the EIC. They aren't, and with the EIC they pay zero income taxes and any FICA they might pay is offset by the EIC, resulting in net cash paid to them. The tax effect will be a net outlay from the Treasury in the billions, and 0 net receipts.

What a joke.

[Gus.]

Have you ever heard anyone suggest that LEGAL RESIDENTS of these United States, who work, are a drain on the MEDICARE system??

When I saw the RESEARCH was done by HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL, my BULLSHIT DETECTOR started to go off.

[daddy]

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