Aluminum, Goldman, The Times, And BS

The NY Times on Sunday offered a long piece purporting to examine the latest outrage being perpetrated by Goldman Sachs upon a hapless, helpless public:

A Shuffle of Aluminum, but to Banks, Pure Gold

Groan - commodity speculation? I am confident there are some serious issues here related to the appropriate lines of business for a firm operating with an implicit Federal backstop. However, based on my experience in reading Times coverage of areas within my personal expertise, I am also grimly confident that when the Times covers commerce they leave their comfort zone when they move beyond publishing and women's fashion. OK, I'll give them men's fashion too.

The Times introduces an arithmetic problem in the early going, which was a bit of a blow on a Sunday morning:

Only a tenth of a cent or so of an aluminum can’s purchase price can be traced back to the strategy [described earlier]. But multiply that amount by the 90 billion aluminum cans consumed in the United States each year — and add the tons of aluminum used in things like cars, electronics and house siding — and the efforts by Goldman and other financial players has cost American consumers more than $5 billion over the last three years, say former industry executives, analysts and consultants.

Say it with me, Dr. Evil: $5 BILLION DOLLARS! And that figure entrances The Gawker and Yves Smith, both of whom attribute it to Goldman as profit rather than the consumer as added expense.

But does the $5 billion figure number make any sense? Hmm.

Per the US Geological Survey's figures, for 2012:

Based on published market prices, the value of primary metal production was $4.32 billion.

That was for 2,000,000 metric tons of primary consumption. A lot of aluminum is also recycled and some is imported, so "Apparent consumption" in the United States for 2012 was estimated at 4,520,000 metric tons. That has a total market value, at their figure of $0.98 per pound, of roughly $10 billion. Consumption was a bit less in 2011 and 2010 but average prices were a bit higher; some quick arithmetic gives me an estimate of $26 billion for total aluminum consumption in the US in the last three years.

And $5 billion of that went from the sheeple to Goldman Sachs? Scandalous! But wait - what happened to "Only a tenth of a cent or so of an aluminum can’s purchase price can be traced back to the strategy...". "Only" hardly seems appropriate if the net impact of this price manipulation is a 20% price increase.

So what does an aluminum can cost, anyway? Well, one can weighs 15 grams, or about half an ounce. 16 ounces to a pound implies 32 cans per pound. And this source says 33 cans per pound, so so far, so good.

At roughly a dollar a pound for aluminum, one can has about 3 cents worth of metal. Even with processing cots of zero, the one-tenth of a cent described by the Times is nowhere near 20% of the total cost; it is more like 3.3%, actually.

This discrepancy does not boost my confidence, which was low at the outset of the story. Further diminishing my confidence is this:

Because Metro International charges rent each day for the stored metal, the long queues caused by shifting aluminum among its facilities means larger profits for Goldman. And because storage cost is a major component of the “premium” added to the price of all aluminum sold on the spot market, the delays mean higher prices for nearly everyone, even though most of the metal never passes through one of Goldman’s warehouses.

Aluminum industry analysts say that the lengthy delays at Metro International since Goldman took over are a major reason the premium on all aluminum sold in the spot market has doubled since 2010. The result is an additional cost of about $2 for the 35 pounds of aluminum used to manufacture 1,000 beverage cans, investment analysts say, and about $12 for the 200 pounds of aluminum in the average American-made car.

Wel, $2 per 1000 cans is 0.2 cents per can, which is twice their earlier estimate. But $2 on 35 pounds of aluminum valued at $35 is still only 5.7%, not 20%.

$12 per 200 pounds of aluminum (at $1/lb) in a car is a percentage of 12/200 or, hey, 6%. Well, they are at least providing a consistent estimate, even if it is just one-third of their eye-catching "$5 billion" figure. And sure, $1.7 billion of excess costs is, well, excessive. Of course, the notion that all these storage fees represent pure profit is untested - one might think that storage ought to cost something.

What the Times seems to have discovered is the Twilight struggle between end-users and speculators. Just what was meant to happen when the global economy hit the skids in 2008? Aluminum producers could (a) stop mining bauxite, the raw material, (b) stop smelting bauxite into aluminum, or (c) make the aluminum and store it (or sell it to speculators willing to do just that) in hopes of higher prices down the road. Depending on the material, storage may be the least expensive option (As an alternative example, Saudi Arabia simply pumps less oil during price slumps, but storing refined oil is problematic.)

With a proper futures market mining and smelting can be smoothed out a bit and "excess" production simply stored. Speculators took advantage of low interest rates to do just that with a number of metals. End users naturally squawk because these "hoarders" are "driving up prices", which is undoubtedly correct - if producers were obliged to sell all of their output despite a collapse in demand, either prices would plunge more than they did, or the expense of shuttering mines and smelters and laying off workers would be incurred.

The idea that any of this is new, or only began when Goldman entered the market in 2010 is absurd. The Times is promoting this now because there will be a Senate hearing on Tuesday and the Democratic chair wants some attention. Mission accomplished!

MY NEW BEST FRIENDS: Goldman Sachs comments:

An unnamed Goldman executive gave Politico the company’s response to the Times story, saying that it “grossly inflated the power of warehouses in the aluminum market.”

I concur.

ERRATA: Two graphs show us aluminum prices and inventory over the last five years:

And LME inventory:

Some additional snippets for flavor. First, users v. speculators, June 23, 2013:

A trade group representing brewers is urging the London Metal Exchange to take steps to reduce warehouse backlogs that beermakers say boost the cost of aluminum used to make drinks cans.

The Beer Institute in Washington pressed the exchange to “end restrictive and outdated warehousing rules and practices that are interfering with normal supply and demand dynamics,” according to a statement provided yesterday by Christopher Thorne, a spokesman for the group. Members include MillerCoors LLC and Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI)’s Anheuser-Busch unit, according to the organization’s website.

...

Warehouse queues for aluminum have grown as more metal gets tied up in financing deals that typically involve a simultaneous purchase of metal for delivery in the near future and a sale for later delivery that takes advantage of a market in contango, where prices rise into the future.

The premium buyers pay to obtain aluminum in the U.S. climbed to a record 12 cents to 13 cents a pound this week, according to Austin, Texas-based researcher Harbor Intelligence.

If the normal premium is 6 cents per pound than the Goldman premium is at the 6% figure the Times seems to be using.

Cranky Congressman. And let me endorse the notion that there are some real issues here, even if the $5 billion figure is just NY Times hype and mirrors.

A hypothetical warehouse operator, from Oct 2 2012:

Let’s get something straight from the outset: before you beat up on me for running a warehouse business, cast your mind back to 2008, when the economic downturn slammed metal demand. Who stepped in to provide a home for all the excess supply? The warehouse firms did.

So don’t tell me we’re the bad guys. If we hadn’t reacted so quickly and efficiently to give you space to store metal, LME prices would probably be a lot lower than they are today. Do you know how long I had to wait for this? The business is cyclical. For many years, my sheds looked like empty, paved football fields. Some of us went into the logistics game. Others stored household items and electronics to claw back a little of the losses. Some of us didn’t have any metal in the sheds at all. It was a really tough time. Nobody paid us for just existing. Now times have changed, and suddenly I’m getting heat from all directions. One of the consequences of the steady inflow of metal to my warehouses is that sometimes there’s a wait to get it out again. What did you expect?

Headscratching from October 3 2012:

The storage of London Metal Exchange-approved metal has probably never been so controversial.

Opinions over the rights and wrongs of the LME’s system differ not just among producers, traders and consumers, but also within warehousing companies themselves.

Whether you like the queues or not, the fact remains that warehousing firms appear to operate within the LME rules.

Of the 26 companies that operate warehouses in 37 different locations around the world, none has ever been found to have breached LME rules governing load-out rates, breached Chinese walls or failed to maintain their LME-approved facilities according to exchange requirements.

Neither has a consumer failed to get enough metal to run its operations effectively, including an enforced shutdown due to metal being stuck in an outbound queue in Detroit or Vlissingen, where companies each store more than 900,000 tonnes.

In fact, producers have found a home for their metal during a downturn, traders and banks have found a lucrative new income stream in the form of financing deals, and warehouse owners have never had quite such a bonanza.

Ultimately, metal in financing deals is still available – it just has a price attached. The rapid rise in premiums for physical delivery is just one part of the phenomenon.

Although it can be argued that everything links back to long waiting times to access metal, premiums are still at elevated levels across the world and in locations where no queues exist.

If nobody is actually doing anything technically wrong – and nobody is really struggling to get metal for consumption – then what is all the fuss about?

Something doesn’t smell quite right, but nobody can really put their finger on what it is. If the firms are operating within the rules, then do the rules need changing?

Looks like manipulation, or something - in New Orleans the warehouses have long queues but still want more metal:

New Orleans warehousing firms are offering lucrative incentives for copper to be put into storage in their sheds, which already have huge queues for material, traders said.

A total of 4,525 tonnes of copper went into the city's London Metal Exchange-approved warehouses last week alone, with parcels of Chilean metal being taken into stock on incentives of more than $100 a tonne. The high incentives could create a new flashpoint in the debate about warehousing because owners of metal in New Orleans warehouses are already having to wait about six months to obtain their metal, people familiar with the issue told Metal Bulletin. “There’s a concerted effort to buy the Chilean material that is floating around to put into New Orleans warehouses and create a queue,” a trader whose firm is active in physical copper in the region said. “Incentives of over $100 are being offered, and it’s simply a game to tighten the market,” the trader added.

Lord Copper, Oct 12 2012, blames easy money and the desire to promote jobs rather than cut production:

If we look at aluminium, there is currently, let’s say, something more than 10 million tonnes of metal sitting in long-term storage, taking advantage of the economic situation I describe above.

If circumstances were not as they are, I believe that post-2008, the price would have dropped further (not being supported by warehouse-trade buying), which would have resulted in more and swifter production cuts.

That would have helped to balance supply and demand, which, after all, is what the fluctuating futures price normally does.

Instead, not only have production cuts been delayed, but stock is also a burgeoning stock which will serve to depress future prices when demand climbs again.

In other words, a well-meaning attempt to ease the financial crisis will have serious knock-on effects in the future, and that is the problem the warehouse trade and its attendant queues is telling us exists.

More background is here, although I surely can't vouch for it.

MORE DATA: A recent Bloomberg article offers this for the math mavens:

U.S. Aluminum Premium Seen Falling as Storage Incentives Slide

...

The premium slid to 11.8 to 12 cents a pound this week from a record 12 to 13 cents, Jorge Vazquez, managing director of the Austin, Texas-based researcher, said by e-mail today. Storage incentives dropped to 8.6 cents a pound from 10.5 cents and are poised to slide further, he said.

More in this recent Bloomberg article:

Since 2010, the additional cost to aluminum users is about $3 billion annually, according to the Beer Institute, a Washington-based trade group that represents brewers.

Buyers have to pay premiums over the LME benchmark prices even with a glut of aluminum being produced. Premiums in the U.S. surged to a record 12 cents to 13 cents a pound in June, almost doubling from 6.5 cents in mid-2010, according to the most recent data available from Austin, Texas-based researcher Harbor Intelligence.

So the machinations of Goldman et al have raied the premium by about 6 cents per pound, which is line with the 6% figure we gleaned from the NY Ties numbers. But now the Beer Institute is saying that the annual global cost is $3 billion? Or is that the US domestic cost?

If it is domestic, that is double the NY Times $5 billion figure and won't be right. The global market for aluminum is about 50 million metric tons, or about $100 billion (Yes, I am surprised by how small the US share is). So if Goldman is adding 6% to the cost, that should be $6 billion per year, not $3 billion.

I will square the circle by asserting that China is both a large producer and large consumer and may be insulated from this premium play. In which case, maybe half the global market is suffering a 6% distortion totalling $3 billion per year.

Well - if the US is half of the non-Chinese market (its not) then we can approach that $5 billion figure. My BS detector remains in the red.

 

Comments

[jimmyk]

she recently was convicted and got a 10 year sentence.

I'm confused, because according to the MSM there's never been any vote fraud.

[Janet - Why does Johnny Depp hate the poor? pourquoi?]

I agree about McAuliffe, maryrose.

I just meant that most people in NoVa are from other states. Myself included. NoVa isn't like the rest of VA.

My posts are disappearing again :(

[maryrose]

I see Taranto agrees with me wrt the illegal re-election of Obama. Ye Gads I'm starting to sound like TK on the birther issue.
Good article today on how Hil is NOT a slam dunk for dems in 2016.

[Janet - Why does Johnny Depp hate the poor? pourquoi?]

oops, there it is.

[Steve]

Breaking! George Zimmerman Saves Family From Truck Crash

[Steve]

Breaking! George Zimmerman Saves Family From Truck Crash

http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2013/07/breaking-george-zimmerman-saves-family.html

[maryrose]

We need to get the rest of Virginia{the normal reasoning population to the polls pronto}
We did this in Ohio with Kasich. We phone-banked and went door to door. Worked at pancake breakfasts and whatever was necessary to get Strickland out. The governor's role is pivotal. Under Strickland we couldn't file suit against Bammycare. With Kasich we did and a gov win lifts all boats. Look at Pennsylvania. McAuliffe is a sleeazeball. Remember he already lost a primary in another race. He'a a wannabee re-tread. Wake Up Virginia and smell the coffee.
jimmyk: the nun got probation.. voter fraud is alive and well but repub governors are putting a stop to it. Acorn has re-emerged and is active under a different name.We have to win big to couteract the fraud and the media.

[maryrose]

Janet:
Get ready to be laughed at by your lib friends as you try to get Cuccinnelli elected. My friends laughed at me and called Kasich a loser but he won narrowly on election night.

[Jane -walk like an Egyptian]

I cannot imagine McCauliffe beating Cuccinelli, which proves I'm a fool as I live in a state that just elected a communist MD resident to the senate from MA.

[Threadkiller]

To sound like a birther you just need to hang out with a birther, maryrose.

Rep. Stockman Joins Proud Birther & Navy SEAL Larry Bailey To Unroll Discharge Petition

Scheduled speakers at this point in time include the following:

Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX)
Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX)
Former Rep./Lt. Col. Allen West (Ret.)
SOS Co-Founder Colonel Dick Brauer Jr. USAF, (Ret)
SOS Co-Founder Larry Bailey, CAPT (SEAL), USN (Ret.)

HOW: The Discharge Petition ScrollOut Event will be set-up so as to allow maximum opportunity for news media photo-ops, video, and audio coverage. The 60-foot record-setting scroll/petition will be set up directly in front of the podium before being unrolled all the way down the stairs.

http://obamareleaseyourrecords.blogspot.com/2013/07/rep-stockman-joins-proud-birther-navy.html?m=1

[DrJ]

Rep. Stockman? Have I mentioned that my niece is doing an internship with his staff this summer? She's having a blast. She even joined the NRA, which should be a big hit back in Ann Arbor.

[Threadkiller]

He is a loon, DrJ.

[Danube on iPad]

Fox News re Filner:

"A vote of no confidence is possible, but the City Council has no authority over the mayor. A recall campaign is expected to begin in two to three weeks. 

"The response to our recall petition is overwhelming," said coordinator Mike Pallamary. "If we can collect 101,000 signatures, we will present those to the City Council which is required to set an election date within 60 days. 
In two additional developments, the San Diego Sheriff's Department set up a hotline over the weekend for any victims of Filner to lodge a complaint. And the San Diego District Attorney announced that, in the event of a criminal investigation, the state attorney general would handle the decision to prosecute. 

"Attorneys familiar with the law say, if the actions described are true, Filner could be charged criminally with sexual battery."

[Danube on iPad]

LarryBailey is, indeed, a loon:

"President Barack Obama is a socialist, was raised by communists, and wasn't born in the United States, according to the former Navy SEAL who founded the group Special Operations Speaks (SOS), which aims to portray Obama as anti-military in this election season."

Just the kind of guy we need in the opposition.

[narciso]

Well you don't need to go to b, to cover the three other points,

[Stephanie]

OH holy f...

http://poorrichardsnews.com/post/56176312924/obama-commemorates-royal-birth-by-posting-photo

It's actually in the @whitehouse twit stream... OMG, I thought it was a joke.

[Threadkiller]

Allen West is hanging out with him. He has done a lot for the opposition....

[Gus]

You think the Prince knows how to change the new babies nappie, every time it takes a BARACK??

[centralcal]

I wouldn't want to be that baby - Obama looks like he's about to upchuck all over her.

[Janet - Why does Johnny Depp hate the poor? pourquoi?]

Looks like Sharpton's chin is being sucked into his head??? Whats that about?

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/07/20/article-2371674-1AE8F198000005DC-866_634x440.jpg

[Threadkiller]

BDLR has suggested that it is the impression left after striking ones chin on the knothole of a tree, Janet.

[Account Deleted]

"Whats that about?"

Vacuum effect.

[Danube on iPad]

"He has done a lot for the opposition...."

What is the antecedent of "he?"

[Danube on iPad]

Greg Gutfel pointed out that somebody will have to break the news to that baby that his teeth are never gonna get any better.

[Danube on iPad]

Gutfeld.

[narciso]

Well he didn't post a picture of himself as a toddler, baby steps, facepalm;

[Gus]

Narciso, maybe they didn't have camera's WHERE he was born!!

[Threadkiller]

'Him' = Bailey and 'He' = West

Sorry for the confusion.

[narciso]

Ayersm Wrightm Phleger, De Unger, Bell,Davis, F,M, you notice the pattern.

[Some Guy]

Danube on iPad?

I once got the Thames on my old iPhone, but put in a ziplock full of rice and then wiped down with Scotch. All good.

[bgates]

OK, that picture was a bad idea, but you have to admit this gift Obama sent the royals is pretty thoughtful.

[Danube on iPad]

Unfortunately, the only way I can sign in is as Danube of Thought. In order to post in a way that will alert the reader to the fact that I'm on the iPad is if I'm not signed in, which I fear will cause posts to disappear. So I am signed in again, and will have to let the typos provide the clue.

Thus far the iPad has proved impervious to both Scotch and vodka, but as yet there has been no total immersion.

[Danube on iPad]

Politico:

"Democrat Michelle Nunn will announce on Tuesday that she is running for Senate in Georgia, a national Democratic strategist confirmed to Politico. Nunn told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Monday that she was joining the race, saying that 'this seems like a way for me to contribute.' Nunn has been considered a likely candidate in Georgia, a Republican-leaning state where, along with Kentucky, Democrats hope to compete in 2014. Nunn, the daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), is the CEO of the Points of Light foundation."

[Gus]

I think one of the reasons that Obama et al have been desperately trying to WHIP their LIBTARD immoral base groups into a frenzy, is that 2014 is going to DESTROY the Dem party.

I PRAY.

[Threadkiller]

http://obamareleaseyourrecords.blogspot.com/2013/07/update-fmr-imprisoned-navy-seal.html?m=1

[matt]

We'll be down for Speed Week (if they have it) in September and can arrange to baptize it in Bombay Sapphire should you desire DoT.

[Account Deleted]

I have read this post four times now (including the long update) but I'm still unclear as to the intent. I believe the Vampire Squid and the Whale are using BOzobucks dropped from Mad Ben's helicopter to try and "legally" corner a chunk of the industrial metals market and I understand the points regarding the 'math is hard' NYT scribble but shouldn't there be a guess at offset value of 'saving' Zombie Alcoa for a few years?

I'm also curious as to the possibility the decision by the LME to allow the Vampire Squid and the Whale to swim away with their sacks of loot had Fed pre-approval.

[Some Guy]

TK,

We are stuck with the Divider-in-Chief until the end of his term. Get used to it.

Unless there is a sweeping change in the make up of the Senate, AND some remarkable turncoating of his own staff, he is here until he takes over for Jimmah as the worst x-president in January 2017.

If I may offer some unsolicited advise, use your talent working to change the makeup of the Senate, which might have some minuscule chance of changing our sad lot. The constitutional eligibility ship has sailed and been lost at sea. There is no ‘there’ there. Even if there is ‘there’ there, it will lead to nowhere.

Best wishes.

[Gus]

Some Guy, We are stuck with Obama. We SHOULDN'T be. Whether TK is right or wrong, TK isn't willig to cede an inch to the fuktard Obama.
I admire that. I admire TK's tenacity and his generally good nature in not lashing out.

[Some Guy]

Gus, I agree. I still haven't gotten over the election, which is why I didn't post here for 8 months. Though I don't blame Romney or the GOP, I've lost faith in some of fellow Americans (perhaps because I live in a blue zone of nonsense).

[Some Guy]

bgates, that audiobook link is hilarious. It's even funny clicking on the 1 star reviews.

[Ignatz]

--I've lost faith in some of fellow Americans--

As usual the bible has it pegged:

"Put not your faith in man...especially the dumbasses":
New King Iggy version.

[jimmyk]

New King Iggy version.

A subtle suggestion of a name for the royal baby? Ignatz I has a nice sound to it.

[Threadkiller]

I am working against the next ineligible candidate, Some Guy.

[narciso]

'we were told there would be no math involved,' the witchhunt against Zimmerman, willingly entered by members we foolishly though were on our time, is part and parcel of the election dynamic, the 'he's just in over his head'

[narciso]

We were told if we voted for McCain, . . .'

http://www.volokh.com/2013/07/22/will-nyts-james-risen-go-to-jail/

[Danube on iPad]

"I am working against the next ineligible candidate, Some Guy."

To the delight of Hillary Clinton. Way to go.

[Some Guy]

...and the entire DNC.

[Danube on iPad]

That would be wonderful, Matt - I'd love to meet you and hoist one or more. I guess the way to make private contact is through Hit. Does he have your e-mail?

[Gus]

Danube, you take delight in your back and forth with TK and your personal perceived, superior LEGAL stance, more than you seem to FIGHT THE HUN.
I don't mean to be disrespectful, but it seems to me, that your J.D.and LEGAL CAREER, over-rides your instinct and your innate sense of RIGHT vs. Wrong.
Obama and the LEFT. Do not CARE about the LAW. They VIOLATE the CODE OF LAW at their WHIM.
Yet you seem to relish your knowledge of LAWS that our/(hopefully your) opponents piss on.
You are extremely bright and knowledgable.

[Danube on iPad]

Could Obama count on the support of Sharpton and Jackson in a War on Illegitimacy? (Jesse, as the known father of at least one illegitimate child, might have to declare himself a consdientious objector in that conflict, I suppose.)

Nah. Illegitimacy among blacks is not a problem. The problem is racial profiling. So let the War on Profiling continue apace, along with the War on Poverty and the War on Drugs. Great successes, all.

I would cast a War on Illegitimacy as something analogous to the Inchon landing, but not one American in ten would know what I was talking about.

We are very badly screwed.

[narciso]

Well they've waged a war on the family, for what two generations. Murray has chronicled the impact on same, in his most recent book,

[Threadkiller]

How does such a rag tag group of loons take so much power from the RNC and hand it over to the DNC?

Romney and McCain both made it very clear they wanted to have nothing to do with birtherism. They still lost.

Look elsewhere for the ammo the DNC shoots with and the blanks the RNC plays with.

[narciso]

'Bob Dole, says Bob Dole; it does feel like 'Eight Man Out' all too often,

[daddy]

During the dog walk tonight the news said that the new born Royal is 3rd in Line now for the Throne. They mentioned that the Law of succession may have been changed in order to allow the accession of a female if the new Prince had been born a Princess.

Anyhow, my question I was pondering after hearing that bit, was if Prince Harry now wanted to be crowned King, how many would he have to bump off in order to win the Crown? My guess is he'd have to murder 6.

Anyone know if I'm correct?

[daddy]

Here's 2 more Captain Sum Ting Wong's:

1 in a plane, 1 in a boat.

[rse]

daddy,

Harry only got displaced by the Prince of Cambridge who bumped in front of him according to the news last night.

Then comes Andrew and then his daughters.

Watched the special on Mary and George V over the weekend. When I took my girls to Windsor it was not high season and we got to go into a lot of the family rooms that are not usually open. And we chatted with the guards who were telling the girls what happened on the day of fire. Andrew was there and organized getting art work out.

So we got a much better sense of Windsor as a home than we would have gotten in the summer high season.

[daddy]

RSE,

I figured Harry would have to bump off The Queen, then Prince Charlie, then brother Will, then the new kid with no name, then go back and knock off Uncle Andrew, and then lastly mort his aunt, Princess Anne, in case they did have that female succession Law.

Then it'd be smooth sailing for Harry. That was my logic.

I suppose he could also knock off Fergie and Camilla, but that really wouldn't be necessary---it'd simply be Harry doing us all a favor:)

I suppose back in head-chopping times I'd be much more aware of the particulars of all of this succession business.

[anonamom]

Narciso, I am reading Murray's The Bell Curve, published nineteen years ago.
Amazingly prescient, and--surprise--I don't find it to be the racist screed I heard it was when it came out.

Today I find out what he thinks the solution could be.

(Guess I was lucky there was still a single copy in my library system that serves 600,000 people.)

[James D.]

Hil and Preezy must have thought we all were pretty stupid to swallow a video story explanation for out and out terrorism. Their contempt for our intelligence was so pobvious in this ploy of theirs.

Of course they thought the American people were stupid. Their party and their allies have spent 2+ generations deliberately making them that way.

[James D.]

"President Barack Obama is a socialist, was raised by communists, and wasn't born in the United States, according to the former Navy SEAL who founded the group Special Operations Speaks (SOS), which aims to portray Obama as anti-military in this election season."

Well, Zero IS a socialist, and he WAS raised by communists, and he's definitely anti-military. Three out of four isn't too bad...

[Jack is Back!]

rse,

Didn't you mean (Albert) George VI? Mary, Queen Mum, Was his wife. George V was his father.

[rich@gmu]

***Of course they thought the American people were stupid.***

and his reelection proved it.

[henry]

A full listing of heirs is in the WSJ, presented as a family tree.

[narciso]

Well here's the link between the past and the future;

[narciso]

Will they get a clue, rhetorical question;

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/07/22/house-intelligence-committee-signs-off-with-reservations-on-administration-call/

[Jane]

Anonamom,

Murray is usually on our cruises. He's a good guy.

[Marlene]

Oh dear,Camilla is not happy...one of the baby's middle names might be Spencer? Inquiring minds.

[Jane]

Re: Risen: Don't we believe that this was a leak that administration wanted? Why would they go forward?

Last Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the fourth Circuit rejected New York Times reporter James Risen’s claim of reporter’s privilege in United States v. Sterling. The underlying case is a federal prosecution of a former CIA official for allegedly disclosing classified information in violation of the Espionage Act. The federal government believes Sterling gave information to Risen, who subsequently published some of the material. A federal district court judge had quashed the federal government’s effort to subpoena Risen and force him to testify, but on Friday a divided panel of the Fourth Circuit reversed, holding that the federal government could indeed force Risen to testify. According to the Court, the First Amendment does not protect a reporter from having to reveal his sources (though Congress could well enact such protections).

[narciso]

More of what rse calls 'mind arsom'

http://dailycaller.com/2013/07/22/you-wont-believe-what-teachers-plan-to-tell-kids-about-trayvon-martin/

[narciso]

Actually, that was a Clinton administration, fustercluck, Jane, they thought they were so clever, like Bruce Willis's team in REDs

[narciso]

And reasons why I am not cynical enough;

[jimmyk]

Interesting linkages in that article, but a lot of innuendo. I was hoping for an account of at least some of what Coleman Young and his pals actually did to destroy the city.

It is shocking that we have a President who is part of that web of intrigue, though.

[pagar222]

All you need to know about the liars.

http://pjmedia.com/victordavishanson/lying-in-the-age-of-obama/

They lie about everything.

[jimmyk]

Sorry, I didn't refresh. My 8:54 refers to narc's LUN at 8:33.

[Jane]

Pagar,

i was just going to post that VDH link. It's great.

[sbwaters]

Hey, Daddy!

My son might fly in to visit is lady-type friend in Anchorage in October. Will it still be hiking weather? He plays guitar and loves dogs.

[narciso]

More illustrations of what Hanson is talking about;

http://www.jammiewf.com/2013/obama-and-his-boss-jarrett-line-up-celebrity-morons-to-pimp-obamacare/

[rse]

Missing post. Try again.

http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/commencing-the-long-sought-bloodless-coup-via-education-to-make-equality-for-all-a-fact/

[Danube on iPad]

"How does such a rag tag group of loons take so much power from the RNC and hand it over to the DNC?"

They don't. They just diminish the anti-Obama brand, and thus also the GOP. They are risible fools, easily mocked and shown to be frauds and dupes.

[rse]

jib-thanks for pointing out I had my Roman numerals wrong.

[narciso]

They do have chutzpah, I'll give them that;

http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2013/07/23/al-qaeda-said-to-design-bomb-to-slip-onto-airplanes/

[narciso]

Except, rse, my understanding was that Rustin was a Cold War liberak, and when his influence
faded, O'Dell and Levinson's more radical vision dominated King's view, hence the '67 speech comparing the US to Nazi Germany in Vietnam,

[narciso]

This is the damage that 70 years of Jim Crow did,

[rse]

That was not his views in 1965 clearly and there are commemorations of his birth going on that celebrate his being gay and this vision.

By the early 80s Robert C Tucker would not mention Marx and framed his vision in light of environmental problems. Some saw the light while others changed their sales pitch. But Boyte is specifically referencing finally fulfilling the 65 vision.

[narciso]

Well Ayers learned Lenin's lessons, about the failure of direct action, re the Social Revolutionaries, just like the Brzzilian left learned from the failure of Marighela's foco strategy.

[Threadkiller]

Do pro same-sex conservatives diminish the anti-Obama brand and the GOP?

How about pro amnesty conservatives?

Pro single-payer conservatives?

Pro AGW conservatives?

[pagar222]

Jane, I may have been imprecise when I said 'they lie'
It should have been everyone of the Democrats
lie. IMO, they simply have no morals. One cannot be in favor of killing inconvenient children and claim to have morals, IMO.
---------------------------------------
Even the Democrats don't trust Democrats.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2013/07/22/size-and-potential-problems-obamacares-navigator-army-going-largely-unno

""We can have a real disaster on our hands," Jones, a Democrat, said in an interview.

"The exchange will pay an organization $58 for each successful enrollment and $25 for a renewal, but the amount the counselors receive will vary."

I predict this will make the Pigford Fraud, the mortgage frauds and all the other frauds America has seem look like very tiny pips on the screen of life. There is no way any leftist grifter will miss this theft opportunity, IMO.

[narciso]

The examples of Venezuela and Argentina, show how severe economic dislocation, served to undermine the ruling coalition, COPEI and Radical, and bring the left to power.

[Janet --- -... .- -- .- ... ..- -.-. -.- ...]

That VDH link is wonderful. Too sad.

[narciso]

San Francisco Democrats, just being themselves;

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/pelosi-congress-must-uphold-oath-protect-and-defend-constitution-passing-gun-control

[Jane]

Pagar,

I'm probably naive but to me the contrast is stark. You have democrats v honor. Honor can't help but lose simply because it has so fewer tools available.

[NK]

This is a very bad truth from Byron York--subsidies start going out for Obamacare Jan 1st- it's goodies for real live working people-- and since 1935, whenever socialized goodies go out to Americans, the goodies NEVER EVER stop (one small exception in MediCare). So, the debate shifts Jan 1st, Obamacare Goodies will be forever (MediCaid and MiddleClass subsidies), the only debate will be how to keep subsidies but end ObamieCare central command and control. DEBT DOOM. http://washingtonexaminer.com/are-republicans-fooling-themselves-about-obamacare/article/2533348?custom_click=rss&utm_campaign=Weekly+Standard+Story+Box&utm_source=weeklystandard.com&utm_medium=referral

[Ignatz]

--Do pro same-sex conservatives diminish the anti-Obama brand and the GOP?

How about pro amnesty conservatives?

Pro single-payer conservatives?

Pro AGW conservatives?--

Four yeses. Why add a fifth?

--I am working against the next ineligible candidate, Some Guy.--

Since you admit even Barry's potential dual allegiance isn't why he's such an awful president, mightn't it be more useful to work against the next awful candidate, considering the stakes involved?

--Romney and McCain both made it very clear they wanted to have nothing to do with birtherism. They still lost.--

Do you think if they had concentrated their stump speeches on long form vs short form and NBC and PDFs they would have won or not lost so badly?
I think it's fairly likely they would have done even worse.

[NK]

Ignatz@10:25-- i believe your use of logic on this topic is misplaced.

[narciso]

There is no fixing this, it's not designed to work, head desk, repeatedly.

[Ranger]

NK,

There is one very big difference between all the other social welfare programs and Obamacare. The vast majority of those new "subsidies" go to people who will still have to shell out money from their own pocket to get the subsidy. A 25 year old without health insurance still has to pony up a fair bit of change to get the "free money" to buy something they don't really want right now anyway. Another big group getting the "subsidy" will be people who are losing their health insurance from their employer (and maybe getting their hours cut as well). This "free money" from Obamacare is very expensive for a lot of people getting it, and that is not lost, even on the low information voters.

[Stephanie]

Watching DC try to fix the healthcare mess is like watching someone with OCD straighten a picture hanging on the wall with a crooked picture inside.

[Danube on iPad]

Off hand I can't think of any AGW or single-payer conservatives. The others you mention don't diminish the brand by looking ridiculous as birthers do.

[NK]

Ranger-- All very good points, and all true about the single 20 something/30something who has no health needs and only sees the 'Tax' side of the subsidy. BUT, many working families with children will NEED and WANT the subidies for actual healthcare needs, and it is better than nothing. That's been the SCHEME of DEM socialized medicene, CAPTURE the working family voter in the entitlement system. As bad as the Brit and Canadian NHS are they are NEVER going away. They've captured the workers. Hard truths, but truths. That's why the Dems lied and cheated so grossly to get Obamacare passed.