Paul Krugman delivers yet another low self-awareness moment at his NY Times blog:
The Great Pension Scare
OK, this is quite amazing: Dean Baker catches the WaPo editorial page claiming that we have $3.8 trillion in unfunded state and local pension liabilities. Say it in your best Dr. Evil voice: THREE POINT EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS. Except the study the WaPo cites very carefully says that it’s $3.8 trillion in total liabilities, not unfunded; unfunded liabilities are only $1 trillion.
I’ll be curious to see how the paper’s correction policy works here.
We can only hope and wonder whether the WaPo editorial page maintains a higher standard than Krugman himself. On the topic of pension scares, let's flash back to March of 2009, again at Krugman's NY Times blog:
“Dow 36,000″ and your pension
So in 2007 the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation — which stands behind corporate pensions — switched from bonds only to lots of stocks, buying in at, natch, the peak of the market. Oops. And this is big stuff: the Bush administration may have left us all a gratuitous loss of hundreds of billions.
Say it with me in your best Dr. Evil voice - "HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS".
Except not. The PBGC had announced a plan to modify its asset allocation to increase their equity exposure but had not yet done so (believe it or not, big bureaucracies don't turn on a dime.) Still, when given a choice between bashing Bush specifically and conservatives generally or doing a bit of research, we can see the path Krugman chose.
As to the corrections policy at the Krugman blog, the guiding policy seems to be "Move On".
WHILE WE AWAIT CORRECTIONS: If we can only get Krugman on board we will have a full consensus that it is Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation.
First. Yay!
Posted by: Atrollpasinthru | July 21, 2013 at 03:35 PM
First. Yay!
Posted by: Atrollpasinthru | July 21, 2013 at 03:35
Moron! And say "Yes Sir" and "No Sir" and "Yes Ma'am and "No Ma'am" when addressing your betters.
Posted by: TexasIsHeaven | July 21, 2013 at 03:40 PM
TM, last link is broken
Posted by: sammy small | July 21, 2013 at 03:44 PM
Well...now it works.
Posted by: sammy small | July 21, 2013 at 03:45 PM
@ 3:40,
How about, Fuck you, shit-for-brains? :)
Yeah, That's it.
Posted by: Atrollpasinthru | July 21, 2013 at 03:50 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vohNUTTx3A
Posted by: danoso | July 21, 2013 at 04:15 PM
-- unfunded liabilities are only $1 trillion--
If only $1 trillion in unfunded liabilities let's you sleep well at night try binging 'state and local unfunded pension liabilities' and you will find a great many articles more reliably placing it at >2.5 trillion and California's unfunded pension liabilities alone, using a more realistic ROI, are nearly $900 billion.
Posted by: Ignatz | July 21, 2013 at 04:29 PM
I thought there was a rule ala Kruggy that TM had to type that first sentence "Former Enron advisor Paul Krugman..."
Did I miss the memo?
Posted by: daddy | July 21, 2013 at 04:30 PM
It seems the states have followed the astute practice of the federal government and designed their pensions as a Ponzi scheme that required at least a steady (if not growing) ratio of workers paying in to retirees drawing benefits. Throw in demographics like longer lifespans and policies that encourage retirement, and, well, we've heard the story before. The extra ingredient with states and cities is that people can move out rather than pay the higher taxes needed to keep the pension benefits going.
Posted by: jimmyk | July 21, 2013 at 05:12 PM
That's Taranto's rule.
Posted by: Danube on iPad | July 21, 2013 at 05:12 PM
There's that, jimmyk, and then all these big city mayors were big supporters of PP and rotten teachers unions..Where did they suppose the armies of well-paid taxpayers were going to come from?
Posted by: Clarice | July 21, 2013 at 05:38 PM
I'm with daddy. Never let a good rule go to waste!
Posted by: Frau Dinkelbrot | July 21, 2013 at 06:04 PM
Whoa, an *authentic* New Schooler at 3:50!
Posted by: Frau Dinkelbrot | July 21, 2013 at 06:11 PM
There seems a rash of trolls of late, not just the regulars. What has drawn them? Who opened the overripe Camembert and left it out on the counter?
Posted by: Laura White | July 21, 2013 at 06:42 PM
Why do these trolls go out of their way to prove their lack of intelligence's.
Posted by: Agent J | July 21, 2013 at 06:44 PM
Where did they suppose the armies of well-paid taxpayers were going to come from?
Mexico. Except they'd be even better than well-paid, they'd be welfare recipients, which is like twice as good for the economy, because of the multiplier effect.
Posted by: bgates | July 21, 2013 at 06:49 PM
The thing about Wile E Krugman, is unlike other Enron employees, he was taken in by a phony trading desk, supergenius.
Posted by: narciso | July 21, 2013 at 06:49 PM
Where did they suppose the armies of well-paid taxpayers were going to come from?
Golden Geese...
Posted by: [email protected] | July 21, 2013 at 06:49 PM
crap, can't top the master.
maybe a top ten:
Where did they suppose the armies of well-paid taxpayers were going to come from?
money trees...
Posted by: [email protected] | July 21, 2013 at 06:53 PM
Rich, where will they come from?
AFSCME union workers -- high pay for no work, Cadillac pension and retirement healthcare -- backed by Bernanke's really big printer
Posted by: henry | July 21, 2013 at 07:01 PM
@ 6:44 p.m. today. We'll defer to your "intelligence's". It's more entertaining.
Posted by: Atrollpasinthru | July 21, 2013 at 07:03 PM
No, these idiot progs truly believed they were building a workers paradise, and that since those red states were horrible and packed with icky Republicans, that folks would just flock to their Nirvana, once the light rail system was completed and they banned large sodas...
Posted by: Gmax | July 21, 2013 at 07:04 PM
Video - Phil Mickelson wins his first British Open...
http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2013/07/phil-mickelson-wins-his-first-british.htm
Posted by: Steve | July 21, 2013 at 07:12 PM
The total unfunded liability picture, per Kotlikoff, is a little short of 200 trillion, so what is Krugman crowing on about.
Posted by: narciso | July 21, 2013 at 07:20 PM
Just city and state worker pensions.
Posted by: [email protected] | July 21, 2013 at 07:24 PM
henry-
and since everyone is fleeing even less work to do.
hum...they were the taxpayers they were waiting for...
Posted by: [email protected] | July 21, 2013 at 07:26 PM
At this point, what difference does it make?
Posted by: Gmax | July 21, 2013 at 07:29 PM
There seems a rash of trolls of late, not just the regulars.
They're the same trolls.
Atrollpassinthrough is Anne. She made siuch a fool of herself with her original name that she doesn't use it anymore, and has since gone by Brian, Lloyd, N.Y. Nick and others. She seems to be a bone-fide multi-personality pshychotic, but I can smell her a mile away, and whew! It's rank.
The Monsanto/Halliburton fool is Cleo. Check fof the y'alls, corn-fed, and other cartoon conservative and oh so clever names. He used to try to engage, but apparently has given up and gone back to his old ways. He's been here for years.
Posted by: Extraneus | July 21, 2013 at 07:41 PM
Ahhhh. Power restored.
Gmax, who owns blue hell paper? (Goldman Sachs? Or humans?)
Posted by: henry | July 21, 2013 at 07:43 PM
Actually, Extraneus, she spells it 'Atrollpasinthru', which makes her 7:03 sneer at Agent J's spelling particularly delicious. Dropping the G in 'passing' and spelling 'through' as 'thru' might be defended as colloquialisms, but the single S in 'pasinthru' is just pathetic.
Posted by: Dr. Weevil | July 21, 2013 at 07:59 PM
"They're the same trolls."
Who really cares? Dana et al. can vary their names all over the lot. What they can't do is say anything - anything at all - that is perceptive and thought-provoking.
If there is any flaw with JOM, it is in the quality of its trolls. Although the regulars often argue passionately among themselves, no one from the outside ever shows up to present and defend a sensible point.
Posted by: Danube on iPad | July 21, 2013 at 08:14 PM
Be thankful the trolls at Breitbart, the Daily Caller, et al, are much worse, they are vicious and stupid, but so is the nutroots from which they appear,
Posted by: narciso | July 21, 2013 at 08:19 PM
It begins: Two brothers, white, killed in their truck in Jacksonville at a Golden Corral.
Supposedly the truck had a "Free Zimmerman" bumper sticker but the Sheriff's office is disputing that.
Guess who the 3 perps are?
Posted by: JIB | July 21, 2013 at 08:21 PM
--If there is any flaw with JOM, it is in the quality of its trolls.--
I think I would place it's platform on the quality spectrum a bit below even the trilobite trolls that infest it.
Posted by: Ignatz | July 21, 2013 at 08:24 PM
hope I'm not considered a troll since I'm only the occasional poster
- for the uninitiated (though most here are likely initiated) discount assumptions play a huge roll in the pension underfunding assumptions
- also of note.. bankruptcy shortfall for Detroit looks like around $3 billion for pensions and $6 billion for healthcare obligations
- look for healthcare obligations to be pushed off to ObamaCare...believe Chicago is also looking to do this as well.
- they legacy healthcare obligations for states and municipalities don't get much attention....but they are also a big problem.
Hey...we wanted to be more like Europe
Posted by: Army of Davids | July 21, 2013 at 08:50 PM
No one has worked harder to make it happen than these two leftist propaganda spreaders.
http://weaselzippers.us/2013/07/21/andrew-sullivan-tells-tingles-with-any-luck-america-wont-be-a-superpower-in-20-years/
Posted by: pagar222 | July 21, 2013 at 08:50 PM
Guess who the three perps are?
Lithuanian?
Posted by: Eric in Boise | July 21, 2013 at 08:52 PM
Did Fox just fire Geraldo? Twitter seems to think so.
Posted by: JIB | July 21, 2013 at 08:56 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/07/21/three-bodies-found-wrapped-in-plastic-in-cleveland/
This reeeeeeeks of profiling. In the story, a woman tells the suspect to stop talking to her daughter. I sure hope the suspect isn't black.
Posted by: Gus | July 21, 2013 at 09:05 PM
The cited study has more problems than the overly optimistic ROI mentioned by Ignatz. It actually provides results for three ROI scenarios with the worst case pushing the shortfall from $3.8T to $6.2T. Unfortunately, the worst case predicate
appears to be drawn from the same type of ARIMA modeling used by the CBO and BLS. Real GDP growth for the past four years:2009 -3.1%
2010 2.4%
2011 1.8%
2012 2.2%
Q1 2013 1.8%
Q2 2013 .3% (consensus estimate)
Another gaping fault in the study is failure to address the lack of recovery in new home construction. Municipal revenue projections continue to assume a reversion to construction levels at 1.2 - 1.5 units per year despite the fact those levels haven't been seen in five years and are not close to being on the horizon.
Chicago's death spiral is accelerating much faster than anticipated.
Posted by: Account Deleted | July 21, 2013 at 09:06 PM
The cited study has more problems than the overly optimistic ROI mentioned by Ignatz. It actually provides results for three ROI scenarios with the worst case pushing the shortfall from $3.8T to $6.2T. Unfortunately, the worst case predicate
appears to be drawn from the same type of ARIMA modeling used by the CBO and BLS. Real GDP growth for the past four years:2009 -3.1%
2010 2.4%
2011 1.8%
2012 2.2%
Q1 2013 1.8%
Q2 2013 .3% (consensus estimate)
Another gaping fault in the study is failure to address the lack of recovery in new home construction. Municipal revenue projections continue to assume a reversion to construction levels at 1.2 - 1.5 units per year despite the fact those levels haven't been seen in five years and are not close to being on the horizon.
Chicago's death spiral is accelerating much faster than anticipated.
Posted by: Account Deleted | July 21, 2013 at 09:06 PM
It seems they are reading the figures, up side down, and through a mirror.
Posted by: narciso | July 21, 2013 at 09:10 PM
Maybe we could just tax the good citizens of Detroit a weeeeee bit more.
Posted by: Gus | July 21, 2013 at 09:27 PM
Did Fox just fire Geraldo? Twitter seems to think so.
Which is more embarrassing, the self-pic he tweeted or this?
@GeraldoRivera 19 Jul
Bravo President Obama for speaking frankly finally about race, justice and endangered African American boys. Not blaming just truth talking
Posted by: jimmyk | July 21, 2013 at 09:28 PM
the former, facepalm with a Kaiju.
Posted by: narciso | July 21, 2013 at 09:35 PM
How did that asinine fool Geraldo ever get a start in a job where respectable people can actually see him?
In a just world he'd be wondering why all the young male prostitutes laugh at him behind his back.
Posted by: Ignatz | July 21, 2013 at 09:48 PM
Well there is the Hearst carnival barker aspect of Fox, Ailes knew him from when he worked at CNBC who know;
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2013/07/21/CNN-s-Crowley-Hopes-for-More-Talk-About-Race
Posted by: narciso | July 21, 2013 at 09:53 PM
My fellow JOMERS - I apologize for setting off the troll at the beginning of the thread. You all know this is not something I normally do but I just threw that bone out to them when I saw the comment about being first. I am sorry and I won't do it again, I promise. I have to admit though when I finally read his/her comment back to me I laughed till I cried. The trolls here are so predictable.
Posted by: TexasIsHeaven | July 21, 2013 at 09:55 PM
Like Pavlov's pooches, TIH
Posted by: Ignatz | July 21, 2013 at 09:57 PM
"Maybe we could just tax the good citizens of Detroit a weeeeee bit more."
Gus,
That would work rather easily. It would amount to a very reasonable $150 per month per capita. Call it $400 per month per household against a total average monthly household income of $2,200.
It's really no problem at all.
Posted by: Account Deleted | July 21, 2013 at 10:08 PM
Posted by: Neo | July 21, 2013 at 10:20 PM
Rick the LIBTARDS are already blaming the GOP for DETROIT.
The LEFT is out of control, and Obama is pouring gasoline on the fire.
Does the term FULL COMMIE, ring a bell??
Demonizing EVERYTHING that doesn't go the full STALIN.
Posted by: Gus | July 21, 2013 at 10:46 PM
Geraldo should be fired. Unprofessional. The tampon earring wearer should be fired too. Totally unprofessional.
Posted by: Janet --- -... .- -- .- ... ..- -.-. -.- ... | July 21, 2013 at 10:58 PM
Whenever I am reminded that Krugman calls both his book and his blog, "Conscience of a Liberal", I chuckle.
(I wonder if he has any idea just how funny that is? Probably not.)
Posted by: Jim Miller | July 21, 2013 at 11:12 PM
On FB -
Dennis Miller
What's up with MSNBC? I just saw Sharpton wearing a single tampon on one ear singing, "Yo Ho Ho, it's a pirate's life for me."
Posted by: Janet --- -... .- -- .- ... ..- -.-. -.- ... | July 21, 2013 at 11:14 PM
Huh, Geraldo do a cheap publicity stunt? Imagine my shock.
"Yo Ho Ho, it's a pirate's life for me."
I don't know, "Yo Ho Ho" means something very different to Al's constituency from what it means to you and me. On the other hand, he is pretty much a pirate.
Posted by: jimmyk | July 21, 2013 at 11:57 PM
Kate Middleton Goes into Labor (Live Coverage and Hospital Cam)
http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2013/07/kate-middleton-goes-into-labor-live.html
Posted by: Steve | July 22, 2013 at 06:14 AM
Kate Middleton Goes into Labor
Bummer. I was thinking Kate was probably a fan of the Conservative and Unionist Party, but now you you tell me she's going all in for Labour?
Bah humbug:( Oh well, At least she's not going in for the Lib Democrats or The Greens.
Posted by: daddy | July 22, 2013 at 06:26 AM
daddy-
ha. so the little on is going to drop on a full moon.
Posted by: [email protected] | July 22, 2013 at 06:31 AM
heh, I did not know that.
Posted by: narciso | July 22, 2013 at 06:44 AM
Well something else he doesn't know anything about;
http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-speeches-economy-jobs-republicans-debt-ceiling-2013-7
Posted by: narciso | July 22, 2013 at 06:57 AM
Proving Tim Blair's law:
https://theoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2013/07/18/christian-century-editor-blogs-with-virulent-anti-semites/
Posted by: narciso | July 22, 2013 at 07:06 AM
Guess where this happen?
"Police: Boy, 14, among 7 shot since late morning in city"
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-chicago-crime-shooting-20130721-to-20130722,0,2173649.story
Posted by: pagar222 | July 22, 2013 at 07:34 AM
Pretty soon Chicago's going to run out of people to bus to Wisconsin to vote Democrat if this slaughter continues.
I understand from a good source that the tampon wearer ,Melissa Harris-Perry ,was originally on the faculty of the prestigious Univ of Chicago. She left before she was denied tenure , She was awful according to the report.) She went to Princeton and, since that was also over her head, ended up at Tulane.
AA in action.
Posted by: Clarice | July 22, 2013 at 07:47 AM
That is a Shocker, Clarice, since she seems to be so sensible, facepalm;
Posted by: narciso | July 22, 2013 at 08:12 AM
There was an article on Tulane before Katrina and the thousands it spends per student enrolled marketing to students nationally to consider attending there.
I think over the next 5 years we will see so many of the private schools apart from the really elite with people deciding it's not worth the cost. I am already seeing kids turning down admission to Ivies for full ride honor scholarships a tier down.
Had lunch with a law school friend and told her not to borrow money, not to raid her retirement, and not to borrow against house. The economics of higher ed have become quite perverse for most students.
And that's without reading all the official intentions to make civic engagement the whole point of the 4 years at big name schools.
Posted by: rse | July 22, 2013 at 08:31 AM
The recent Christine O'Donnell story makes me mindful of the Dems. illegally accessing Michael Steele's credit info.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2005/sep/22/20050922-111321-9156r/
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee blamed rogue staffers. Sorta like the IRS blaming the Cincinnati office.
*the DSCC illegally getting credit reports
*IRS targeting conservative organizations
*illegally accessing Cristine O'Donnell's tax info & placing a fraudulent lien.
*wire tapping McConnell's staff meeting
*stolen computers from a law office representing State Dept. whistleblower. (Whatever happened to THAT story!)
Posted by: Janet --- -... .- -- .- ... ..- -.-. -.- ... | July 22, 2013 at 08:32 AM
daddy,
FedEx driver (airbus based in MEM) recently married a good friend of my wife. Do you know Kris DeJeet?
Request you email me atckz at comcast dot net
Thanks.
Posted by: MoodyBlu | July 22, 2013 at 08:48 AM
Where did LISA JACKSON errrrrrrrrrrr RICHARD WINDSOR go to college?
And who paid for it?
Tulane and Shell Oil are your answers.
Posted by: Gus | July 22, 2013 at 09:13 AM
http://weaselzippers.us/2013/07/22/white-democrat-steve-cohen-im-black-yo/
The linked Politico article labels him a Republican.
from Politico -
" By TAL KOPAN | 7/22/13 7:41 AM EDT
Rep. Steve Cohen (R-Tenn.) on Monday defended a controversial racial tweet over the weekend, saying it was a funny joke and emblematic of his support among African-Americans."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/steve-cohen-controversial-tweet-94543.html#ixzz2ZmPLsY4I
Posted by: Janet --- -... .- -- .- ... ..- -.-. -.- ... | July 22, 2013 at 09:14 AM
Janet, don't forget anonymous peeps arriving to speak with Harry Reid, with Mitt Romney's tax records in tow.
Posted by: Gus | July 22, 2013 at 09:14 AM
Back up to Iggy's observation about $1T in unfunded pension liabilities, of course Iggy is correct.
Plus a very real problem with even having that discussion is how differently that figure can be calculated, and how with minor changes in assumptions the headline number can be changed hugely. By definition the Unfunded Amount is the total by which the projected payments out exceed the sum of projected payments in plus the real value of the financial assets already in the tank. And make that projection over 50-60 years...
Tiny changes in the projected contributions of current workers, projected earning on the accumulated "real" assets, projected CPI and that impact on contributions and payouts, plus the discount rate used if the objective is "PV of Unfunded Obligations" all can make that figure vary all over the place.
For starters it would be interesting to see some outside group apply the same assumptions to all of the above just to get the discussion going on an apples:apples basis.
Note I use the term "real" financial assets above to screen out the bogus one pocket owes the other pocket cash eg how the SS and Medicare trust funds are good for decades etc.
Posted by: Old Lurker | July 22, 2013 at 09:31 AM
Searching for the meaning of words.
"She continued saying, “There’s some suspicion — and I don’t want to spread this, but I’m just going to tell you what I’ve been hearing — they suspect maybe the police are killing some of these kids.”
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/07/il-state-rep-monique-davis-maybe-the-police-are-killing-some-of-these-kids-in-chicago/
----------------------------------------
Hint: they are not talking about the woman he let drown.
"The book says Kennedy was deeply offended and recounted the conversation to friends with fury."
http://weaselzippers.us/2013/07/22/flashback-lib-hero-bill-clinton-racially-profiled-barack-obama-a-few-years-ago-that-guy-would-be-fetching-us-coffee/
Posted by: pagar222 | July 22, 2013 at 09:36 AM
As predicted, the NYT has its first sob story about Motown pensioners on the front page.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/22/us/cries-of-betrayal-as-detroit-plans-to-cut-pensions.html?hp
Not to be too heartless, but it's a zero-sum game at this point: more money to them involves taking from someone else who just as much was counting on that money for something.
Posted by: jimmyk | July 22, 2013 at 09:47 AM
The corpse flower with the smell of rotting flesh has bloomed at the U.S. Botanical Garden. Are those White House petitions for real? There is a petition to make the stinky flower the official flower of DC. Ha!
Posted by: Marlene | July 22, 2013 at 09:51 AM
ChiTown shootings-- Must be the 'Man' that's shooting the kids! I grew up in NYC in the 60-70s, went to law school for 3 years in DC in the early 80s, all this is so familiar regarding AA 'community' leaders. ChiTown AAs shooting each other like Germans and Ruskies on the Eastern Front 1943?, so it must be the 'Man's' fault. If it wasn't so pathetic, it would be infuriating-- OK it is infuriating. Detroit is destroyed worse than Dresden, or even Hiroshima by 50 years of Dem (40years AA Dems) political monopoly, so the destruction must be the 'Man's' fault. It's just a disgrace that a large percentage of the USA's oldest ethnic group (AAs)can be manipulated by rumor and outright lies. Just a disgrace. Even the Chi Trib piles on by publishing recent mug shots which are disproportionately AA and Mexican -- RACIST: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-mug-photogallery,0,5488047.photogallery
Posted by: NK | July 22, 2013 at 09:52 AM
They should re-parcel Detroit into equal sized 10x10 lots, place a value of $1 on each lot, and give the pensioners a buyout with that land.
Posted by: Threadkiller | July 22, 2013 at 09:55 AM
You wanna fix Detroit? Raise taxes on the wealthy-boom-done-thank you!!!!
This may seem like hyperbole or typical troll activity, but there literally is no financial problem that can't be solved with raising taxes on the richest 1 percent of Americans.
I am one of the dumbest mostest unedmumacated people in the world-when I enter a room IQ's automatically rise and yet I know you can literally tax your way out of any fiscal problem that presents itself. How much corporate tax do car companies in Detroit pay? Not enough-let's double it, hell triple it and then you'll have 12 minute police response times.
Posted by: DublinDave | July 22, 2013 at 09:56 AM
jimmyk-- I won't read the NYT, but right you are. THERE IS NO MONEY!! The detroit calamity is a three way cage death match-- 1.the lying politians and their needy constituents who rely on the transfer payments the lying pols steer to them; 2. the City 'workers' (both current and retired--although those are subgroups with distinctly interests; and 3. the bondholder creditors (who ironically enough are disproportionately union pension funds. It is a permanently shrinking pie, hence the Death Match quality, as youpoint out, whatever resource goes to one group deprives another, it is a 'subzero' sum game. Medieval.
Posted by: NK | July 22, 2013 at 09:58 AM
OL,
Even if the assumption regarding the ROI is reasonable, it does not affect the errors in underlying assumptions regarding population levels and real estate values. Over 200K people escaped the banana republic Deep Blue Hell of Chicago between 2000 and 2010 and there is no reason to suppose flight will stop any more than there is a reason to suppose that a non-corrupt entrepreneur would put money at risk in that cesspool. Philly is in an analogous position, as are many others.
Posted by: Account Deleted | July 22, 2013 at 10:03 AM
OL,
Even if the assumption regarding the ROI is reasonable, it does not affect the errors in underlying assumptions regarding population levels and real estate values. Over 200K people escaped the banana republic Deep Blue Hell of Chicago between 2000 and 2010 and there is no reason to suppose flight will stop any more than there is a reason to suppose that a non-corrupt entrepreneur would put money at risk in that cesspool. Philly is in an analogous position, as are many others.
Posted by: Account Deleted | July 22, 2013 at 10:03 AM
RickB/OL-- you're both right, but you aim too low. All the criticisms 'old white men' like us have been hurling at the 'Blue Model'-- well take a bow, you were right. Lying to needy constituents, and promising the parasites endless benes, while simultaneously overtaxing and overregulating the productive classes, and giving them no reason to stay in the jurisdiction, is an exercise in self-immolation. So ALL of the Blue Model cities and States are going down-- ALL of them. They will eb the first casualties as the Debt Bomb detonates. Eventually the Debt Bomb will hurt everyone badly, including T Bond holders, but the Blue Hells will be destroyed by it. "It's a teachable moment."
Posted by: NK | July 22, 2013 at 10:15 AM
I agree, Rick, and the ability to flee is the one remaining firewall we have. Every time we provide Federal bailout assistance (or even a State to a Town) we undermine that one final protection.
That making it all "one big pot" as the ultimate goal of all progs proves my point.
Posted by: Old Lurker | July 22, 2013 at 10:18 AM
I kinda like TK's 10x10 plot in lieu of cash idea. :-)
Posted by: Old Lurker | July 22, 2013 at 10:20 AM
Bailout Detroit? it won't happen because it can't happen-- there is NO MONEY.
Posted by: NK | July 22, 2013 at 10:20 AM
"That making it all "one big pot" as the ultimate goal of all progs proves my point."
That's what I meant when I alluded to Social Security. No place to flee to, one big pot, and it's still headed toward insolvency. State and local Ponzu schemes have no way to keep people in the losing game.
Posted by: jimmyk | July 22, 2013 at 10:26 AM
I like TK's idea too. But the bond holders should get their shares too.
Posted by: jimmyk | July 22, 2013 at 10:30 AM
“Let me now state what seems to me the decisive objection to any conservatism which deserves to be called such. It is that by its very nature it cannot offer an alternative to the direction in which we are moving. It may succeed by its resistance to current tendencies in slowing down undesirable developments, but, since it does not indicate another direction, it cannot prevent their continuance. It has, for this reason, invariably been the fate of conservatism to be dragged along a path not of its own choosing. The tug of war between conservatives and progressives can only affect the speed, not the direction, of contemporary developments.”
– FA Hayek, Why I’m Not a Conservative (1960)
(Via Ace)
Posted by: Extraneus | July 22, 2013 at 10:31 AM
I agree, Rick, and the ability to flee is the one remaining firewall we have.
And our betters in DC are, I'm sure, working on ways to make it more difficult to flee from the hells they've created.
Posted by: James D. | July 22, 2013 at 10:31 AM
"real estate values"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-22/existing-home-sales-fall-most-2013-biggest-miss-12-months
I think Rick B mentioned this a few days ago. Things are not getting better no matter how many economic talks are given by people who don't understand economics, i.e.leftists.
Posted by: pagar222 | July 22, 2013 at 10:33 AM
OL,NK,RB:
You guys have summed up the future for these big cities accurately. In Detroit, I knew they would be in trouble when I heard that some auto workers were paid not to work. Who does that? Unions by asking for more for years were the culprits and those pension funds will be limited. Agree that Bammycare will replace their former cadillac plans. They should have bought out someof these workers and redirected them to some other insurance plan The best speaker on the Sunday shows was Orr. He is the only one telling it like it is.
Posted by: maryrose | July 22, 2013 at 10:37 AM
It looks as if establishment media will need to pull out its favorite word to account for the failure of progenomics: UNEXPECTEDLY.
Posted by: Thomas Collins | July 22, 2013 at 10:37 AM
jimmyk-- you summarize the true--- and horrifying -- scope of the Debt Bomb that faces US taxpayers. The Blue Hells are 'subzero' sum games, because their destructive abuse of the productive classes reduces economic activity in a death spiral so they will feel the effects of the Debt Bomb first, and they will be completely destroyed by the Debt Bomb. 'Detroit' will NEVER be recreated as a municipal and taxing authority. For Detroit and the other Blue Hells (Gary, Ind., Camden/Newark, NJ, Troy/Rochester NY, RI, Ill., Md., etc etc,) it's GAME OVER. They'll outright default, the USA will 'effectively' default through inflation or 'restructuring'-- but default it will because of 'Entitlement' promises that politicians can't admit were all a lie.
Posted by: NK | July 22, 2013 at 10:37 AM
Senate immigration bill includes nearly $300 million in slush funds for immigrants' rights groups
Posted by: Extraneus | July 22, 2013 at 10:37 AM
Give the bond holders the infrastructure.
Posted by: Threadkiller | July 22, 2013 at 10:38 AM
Jimmy I am tired of explaining to my friends just how right you are about the insolvency of SS. They just don't get the joke about all those IOU's in the pot.
Posted by: Old Lurker | July 22, 2013 at 10:39 AM
Whenever I read that title, I think of one of those gag books full of blank pages.
Posted by: Rob Crawford | July 22, 2013 at 10:40 AM
Soc Sec T-Bond IOUs-- joke?, well a sick joke anyway, a twisted sick joke-- like Chico selling the Racing Guide to Groucho in A Day at the Races.
Posted by: NK | July 22, 2013 at 10:43 AM
"Philly is in an analogous position, as are many others."
I'm not sure if this has anything to do with anything but in Philly (accd to my niece and her husband) the poor are moving out of the city and the better off are moving in. The neighborhoods are being re-habbed one by one, and the professionals are buying up property in the inner city. The trick of course is to figure out the next great neighborhood. Lots of money to be made.
Posted by: Jane | July 22, 2013 at 10:44 AM
Krugman-- didn't he throw up his hands last week about the Epic Fail of his 'Stimulus' debt binge, and say we need another WWII for growth to return? He's a monster.
Posted by: NK | July 22, 2013 at 10:45 AM