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July 28, 2013

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jimmyk

NPR: Can Expanding Food Stamps Jolt The Economy?

I sometimes have NPR on in the morning just for fun, and it never ceases to amaze, even when it's not blatant bias. Two stories this morning: One positive story about fast food workers somewhere walking off the job for higher pay and longer hours. Talks how hours have been cut, but no mention of any reason. A second story about the impact of the bursting of the housing bubble talked about how people "were pushed" into buying bigger homes than they could afford. Yeah, they had no choice, shouldn't be held responsible.

Anyway, it's good comedy to get me going in the morning.

Search Livingston and Penn sunspots.

Yeah, h&r, I laff about the ones arguing over the pause. We are cooling, for now. Certainly, the madness is.
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Janet

Thanks, centralcal! Very fun to read about Jane & Caro.

Search Livingston and Penn sunspots.

Yeah, h&r, I laff at the ones arguing about the pause. We are cooling, for now. Certainly, the madness is.
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narciso79

Having read the great upheaval, one sees how the 'little ice age' probably led to the revolutionary unpleasantless on at least one corner of the Atlantic, among other details, famine can do that sort of thing,

Oh Gaia, the Frenzy's on.

Even better joke on me. I thought the Goddess ate my comments and they were only on the next page.
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narciso79

Prince Waleed is 'concerned' about fracking, for our benefit, you understand, not his.

Also, the Minoan Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period, and perhaps the Modern Warm Period, perhaps ended.

n, there was the Roman Climate Optimum, then the Dark Ages, after a bunch of climate refugees surged southward, despite Caesarean sectioning into body parts.
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henry

Well Kim, we had a high of 54 yesterday and the local TV nitwits blamed CO2. Maybe if we put them on food stamps instead of on air the economy would improve!

NK

Hmmm.... will ChiTown have to file Chap 9? Cash on hand is shrinking fast ( Rahm blames HONEST accounting.. in ChiTown? LOL!!!), Rahm has cut 6000 city workers since taking over (including 2000 teachers last week) City has failed to make anywhere near the mandatory pension contributions, NO way the State helps, its pensions are WORSE than ChiTown. Of course Rahm is too pigheaded to file, and Obummer will do whatever it takes to keep ChiTown out of bankruptcy, but in a few years? Chap 9 may await. http://www.suntimes.com/21552920-761/city-of-chicagos-cash-cushion-plummets-debt-triples-arrests-drop-water-use-rises.html

narciso79

There does seem to be a certain pattern there, I was wrong he is seriously concerned about his future meal ticket, interesting Talal pere was kind of a liberal, as far as the Court allows

Janet

This Klavan post is brutal & true - http://pjmedia.com/andrewklavan/2013/07/28/the-sad-fate-of-democrat-women/?singlepage=true

This Putsch did not consult Gaia, and she's pissed.

'Global Warming' as a meme fails, so the push was to 'climate change', now finally to 'climate weirding'. Its object is to create fear and guilt in man for our technological progress.

Global warming is a plus compared to glaciation(-8 deg C), and man probably cannot raise the temperature more than about 2 deg. C. Climate always changes, so that meme fails. Climate weirding is perfect for the needed effect, because every weather catastrophe can be trumpeted as the result of man's action and guilt. Never mind that honest statistics does not demonstrate any change in extreme weather patterns.

The Early Bird is all over it.

Threadkiller

On Fox the Dem and Repub strategists were asked why the GOP has not pounced on the Weiner scandal. The Repub said essentially "why, he is doing enough damage to himself without us getting into the fray".

What would Ray Kroc do?

"If any of my competitors were drowning, I'd stick a hose in their mouth”

All hose jokes aside, why does the GOP never hammer out the death blow?

NK

dr. Lindzen put human CO2 as maxing at 1CDegree, he finds no 'positive feedbacks', beyond the quantum mechanical effect of 2Xs CO2. Now if there are NEGATIVE feedbacks...

narciso79

EU says stop with the unfriending, and detweeting, we're very angry indeed

pagar

Narciso, thanks for your 08:47 link last night. I probably would have missed it if you hadn't mentioned it.
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Centralcal, thanks for the info on the journey of Jane.
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"I have no doubt there are lefties dumb enough to believe crap like this,"

" This week "we are essentially rewriting economic history" as the BEA is set to revise GDP data from as far back as 1929. The 'adjustments' to account for intangibles (that best known of micro- accounting fudge factors) and as we noted previously in great detail, will increase GDP by around $500 billion."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-29/government-revises-84-years-economic-history-week

For 84 years ignoring the fudge factor has held down the growth of our great nation, so the Obama regime will go back and rewrite all the figures.

This is insane, IMO. Once the figures are revised all economic data will need a footnote, BO (Before Obama)or AO (after Obama)

NK

Weiner-- if Repub Party types jump in, the Legacy Media take the focus off Weiner and put it on 'EVIL RETHUGs', so let the Dems take care of the Weiner hate.

Repubs/Conservatives should focus on-- 1. Detroit bankruptcy, 2. US Debt-- WE are detroit 3. NO GROWTH 4. NO JOBS, $4.00/gal gas, $5.00/lbs hamburger 5. IRS/NSA abuses, 6. Benghazi-- that's more than enough through 2014... Immigration? House passes "Step by Step" plan and 'Dream' Amnesty. Senate/House Conferees fail to reconcile. Nice!

Jeff Dobbs

Heh, over on the memeorandum sidebar:

Bill and Hillary Clinton are ‘livid’ at comparisons to Weiner's sexcapades and Huma's forgiveness

It's a Vast Right Wing Conspiracy.

Threadkiller

Yeah, that'll work.

I propose they do some serious oppo research and bury this clown. Make this a teachable moment long before the voters get a chance to elect this piece of garbage.

NK

If Repubs want to do anything, go after this pig in San D. That Dem used his position as Mayor to get some... official misconduct, focus on that before pitiful Weiner, far more potential upside.

Where's my map?

Yep, NK, though I think Lindzen's figure may be 1 deg C/doubling of CO2. I don't think we can do more than two doublings, hence my 2 deg C. Mebbe I better check though. At any rate, anthropogenic warming pales in comparison to natural glaciation, which is just around one of these corners.
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Tweet your ovarian cysts.

Livid so late?
Such is their hate;
Chimps flying pigs,
Oh, they got such gigs.
===========

NK

Lindzen calculates 1C off of one doubling of CO2.

Threadkiller

It is always better to demolish the opposition's candidate after he is elected.

James D.

All hose jokes aside, why does the GOP never hammer out the death blow?

Because they're all part of the political class, and as much fun as I'm sure it is for them to watch Weiner squirm, ultimately they view him as "one of them", compared to all of us, who are viewed as serfs (at best).

Thank Gaia for the thin little blanket of warming we're weaving.

NK, I suspect a functioning thermostat of some sort. Of course, climate is all tempero-spatial chaos, lately alternating between a warm state and a glaciated state on an approximately 12,000 year schedule for the warm times. Our warm time is senile.
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You pays your money and you takes your chances.

Yep, NK, we are on the same frequency about 1 deg C/doubling and Lindzen. However, several very recent estimates of that climate sensitivity are coming in around 1.6 deg C/doubling. These studies are from analyses of observations rather than estimations from climate models, or from paleontology.

Climate models suffer from inadequate parameterization, inadequate knowledge, and lack any skill except navel gazing. Paleontology has error bars wider than can be graphed, well almost.
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NK

Climate??-- I don't see enough reliable data to make any rational conclusions-- other than it appears to be a highly complex and possible chaotic system. CAGW?-- Cargo Cult led by scammers with PhDs-- sort of like Scientology without the celebrities.

NK

1.6C 'sensitivity'??... well, that comes from the same scammers who used to say 4-6C. They are the <60yo scammers, so they have to hedge, they still need grant applications funded before they retire.

Captain Hate

All hose jokes aside, why does the GOP never hammer out the death blow?

And get those clean togas soiled? What type of ruffian are you?

Jokes aside, they'd probably screw it up like they do everything else.

Captain Hate

I've gotta hand it to Kim. Even though she buys into climate change stuff more than I do, she does it with sanity, integrity and, from what I can tell, adherence to the scientific method.

rse

Kim-one of the official PR campaigns I downloaded this weekend wants to switch to climate disruption to pick up natural weather occurrences which can be hyped and visual. Disruption also implies manmade without saying so.

And I do know the why because it is often in the same documents. I just beefed up the conclusion this morning in ways that should make your heart soar. "So that's why they did it and do it."

I am so ready to get some semblance of a life back.

By the way I don't think it is accidental that the most damning pertinent US docs on all this are sitting on UK servers.

Account Deleted

NK,

The Chicago BK is going to pull Illinois into a vortex from which there is no escape. Chapter 9 is currently unavailable for states and the tax levies necessary to service all commitments made are going to drive the productive south at an accelerating rate.

Those living in Illinois should look at their current finances and recalculate using a tripling of real estate and income taxes to determine economic viability in ten years. It's a situation where a five year retirement horizon dictates examination of selling property now and leasing until retirement. The Detroit model suggests that leaving early will avoid the crowd at the exits when it's too late.

Ignatz

--Chimps flying pigs--

Stephen Mosher had a hilarious comment about ass monkeys at Climate Audit. I oughta go dig it up.

Ignatz

Richard Telford:

“So what does the 0-dimensional energy-balance model predict about heat-waves in Australia, the decay of Arctic sea ice and Amazonian precipitation? Nothing? How about the impact of ozone depletion on Antarctic climate or Atlantic hurricanes? Still nothing?”

Stephen Mosher;

What do GCMs predict about monkey’s flying out of my butt? nothing.

When comparing models you dont get to specify a test that the model was not prepared to answer. One doesnt test the skill of a hurricane model by looking at the snowstorms in Russia it predicts. And one doesnt test a GCM by seeing if it gets the count of ass monkeys right.

Calendar [the guy who devised the model under discussion] sets the table: predict the global temperature. And his model sets the standard. Beat that.
Now of course you can do something different. You can predict ass monkeys and temperature and then claim you are better than his model because while you miss his mark on temperature you add the critical feature of ass monkeys.

Normal model development would say “add all the ass monkeys you like computer engineer, but dont go backwards on our signature metric”

So, yes, GCMs are more comprehensive than 0 dimensional models.And they do a better job at higher dimensions–by default. But thats not the question. All the impact studies and costs associated with them are driven by getting temperature right. Pragmatically speaking Im interested in the best prediction tool for that metric. Im not interested in which model gets the number of snowflake correct, or ass monkeys correct, Im interested in which model gets the cost driver correct. Screw the physicists dream of verisimilitude. Give me actionable forecasts.

NK

RickB-- hold on now. Detroit Chap. has not played out yrt-- let's see whose Ox is gored worst. Dumping City retirees into MediCare, and the current workers into Obummer Exchanges, may be the pension result... whick lets City Workers and Bondholders of the hook -- SOMEWHAT, and of course KILLS Federal taxpayers. If it plays out that way, LOTS of Cities/counties will go Chap 9. Illinois? My opinion remains the 'bailout' is Congress expanding Chap 9 to States to accommodate Ill, RI, NJ, Md. Ct.-- and just maybe the BIG KAHUNA -- Calif.

NK

Chap 9 has not played out yet....

(I am worst typist evah...)

Account Deleted

NK,

It doesn't matter what they do, the Flight from Blue Hell in conjunction with the OPM Famine is going to economically destroy Illinois and Michigan. The Michigan government is not acting fast enough in cutting services to match declining population and Rahmbaloney's cut of 2K indoctrinators is short by 6K. Chicago continued to expand indoctrinator hiring in the face of a declining student age population for twenty years and blight will follow bloat as sure as sunset comes after sunrise. The cuts are far too little and way too late.

Sovereignty issues make me doubt the extension of Chapter 9 to states. Why should Free States pick up the bill for poisoned prog slave hells?

maryrose

Obama is a spoiled child. His green solar companies that he financed with stimulus money have all gone belly up. With Keystone he could successfully provide new private sector jobs. His stubborness and intransience is what motivates him to lie about the number of jobs and to justify his decision -no decision is a decision- regarding giving approval. Too much power in the hands of someone who just misuses it time and again.

NK

RickB-- my thoughts on Chap 9 extended to States: Chap 9 for Cities/Counties dates back to the 1930s, States were never included --even in the 1970s debtor friendly Bankruptcy overhaul-- because they are 'Sovereigns' as you point out. Needless to say that's becoming more and more anachronistic. So now several BLUE states are going teats up, and those Blue politicians, Rahm, Daley (both) O'Malley, Drunken Danny Boy Malloy, AND MAYBE BROWN!! etc etc, will clamor for 'Bailout' to keep those states safely Blue. NO financial bailout NO WAY, so Repubs will agree to extend Chap 9 to the Blue States IMO, b/c the Blue State pols will stick it to the State Public Unions to save themselves. Driving a wedge between those public unions and the Blue Pols is a massive political shift (see Wisc), and is worth giving to the Dems -- so the Repubs will do that IMO.

NK

PS: Detroit bankruptcy works very well politically for Snyder.

I hadda comment that wouldn't post because I'd been timed out.  Any one else notice that?

moshe also linked to an analysis that considers that humans are a chimpanzee/pig hybrid. The logic is great.
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I think O'Brian owned a time machine.

'"So that is a mainstay,' said Stephen, looking at it vaguely. 'I have often heard them mentioned. A stout-looking rope, indeed.'" Likewise confronted, we can imagine ourselves uttering these lines with Maturin's boggled look and feigned disinterest. Later, in 'Post Captain', Maturin wistfully concludes, "'Your mariner is an honest fellow, none better; but he is sadly given to jargon.'"

from the foreward to 'A Sea of Words' by Dean King, Henry Holt & Co., New York, 1995, a vocabulary and further source for O'Brian's tales.
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Ooooh, that hurts.  Don't do that again.

You are on it, Early Bird; not an autopsy, but the patient is coming out from under the anesthesia before the operation is complete.

Yep Iggy, moshe's a dream; funny as Hell and sharper than most tacks I've stepped on.
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And pay will our grandchildren, and theirs, and theirs, the stairs, the stairs.

NK, these observational estimates of climate sensitivity are generally by reliable people, not the nonsensus holders. I suspect there is some degree of positive water vapor feedback, but also think the last 15 years' pause has been because of clouds, and whether or not they are a feedback is unknown and probably a variable, temperally and spatially.

The Global Climate Models, powerful supercomputers that they be, are still just pitifully inadequate digital simulacrums of the great analog computer that is the heat engine of our Earth.

We, kemosabe, put too much faith in them, and oh the penalty we will pay for that faith.
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NK

Climate Models = the alteregos of the assumptions built into them by the model makers.

Water vapor, clouds, all key variables in sensitivity, and none of them can be understood at this point given present lack of reliable data.

Jane on Ipad hi there NSA

Entire days go by, and it is barely noon there. What are you guys doing?

We are staying in a B&B in central amazon. It was built in 1680. Directly next door is the "hash and hemp " museum. Thr smell of pot is always in the air. We are on a canal. The canals are gorgeous - and filthy.

To get to the hash museum you take a left outside our door and go in the next door. To get to the redlight district you take a right and walk about 4 doors down . For blocks you have nearly naked women posing in windows. The streets are packed with grandmas and preteens, and everything in between.

I really don't have a handle on Amsterdam yet. I have no idea if I approve or disapprove. Even the bikes are odd.

Wish you were here!

Jane on Ipad hi there NSA

Strike "amazon". Sheesh

Ignatz

--Strike "amazon"--

Isn't that still a felony, even in Amsterdam?
Unless of course you pay for the privilege 4 doors down.

Janet

Jane - cc pointed out that Scott Johnson at Powerline mentioned you & Caro - http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/07/reporting-from-amsterdam.php

Captain Hate

Jane how long are you in Amsterdam? It has some great jazz performers but they're probably on tour or at festivals. I just looked up the schedule for the Bimhuis but it seems like there's nothing going until September. Maybe they all go on vacation during August like they do in Paris.

JIB

Jane,

Time for dinner. You need to walk down the Leidesplein or along the Kezergracht, Herengracht or Prinsengracht (these are the canal streets). Take in the sights and pick a nice place to eat. I think they have finally figured out the Mussel problems and harvest has begun. You cannot go wrong with seafood in the Netherlands.

On some of the canals they have canal boats (kanaalschip) that are restaurants - some you can eat alfresco!

clarice

I spent the day tramping around the lovely Cinque Terra. Tired..Tomorrow Bonaficio (Corsica), Sartene and the Southwest Coast

JIB

CH,

Elsa's has jazz on Wednesdays. Too bad she's not there on Saturday - Toots Theilemans is playing at the Amsterdam Arena. But this is festival time in both Belgium and Holland. August is also the official holiday month for The Netherlands. Just about everything is shut down.

Clarice,

Did you feel the heat spell or are you getting enough sea breeze? Watch out for those Somalian's selling fake Louis Vuitton bags:)

centralcal

Janet - I sent Jane and Caro emails this morning about the Powerline mention. She said Scott wanted to take their picture, but after a long day of travel, they said no!

Clarice - I think the photos of the Cinque Terra are so scenic - very rugged perches they have, too.

Jeff Dobbs

cc:
She said Scott wanted to take their picture, but after a long day of travel, they said no!

All I'm saying is . . . this is the first pic that pops up when you google "Caro Amsterdam":

Jane on Ipad hi there NSA

That's her!!! Except she's younger!

Porchlight

Kim! I am on my second O'Brian voyage and have just started The Ionian Mission. It's always fun when Maturin uses that jargon himself (often incorrectly) as he tries to describe naval activity to other lubbers. ;)

Porchlight

Jane, I hope you and Caro have a wonderful time. One of these years I hope to join you on a cruise.

Bon Voyage, Girls of the Golden West and East.

Correctomundo NK @ 12:19.

Porch, like Wodehouse, I can reread O'Brian after only a lapse of a few months. I lose plots. With Wodehouse, it doesn't matter.
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Jane on Ipad hi there NSA

Porch,

Plan for the next European one. (you too centracal). All you have to do is get there. Then you just follow Caro around, who even Scott Johnson thought, could navigate anything. The regulars are just like JOMers. We ran into one this morning, on the streets of Amsterdam. How fun is that?

Porchlight

Yes, kim - I remember very little of the plots so it's like reading them anew. One of the benefits of a bad memory.

Jane - someday I will manage it. It sounds just divine! Especially when the ports of call are in Europe.

twin falls

Yes anthroCO2 is just anthropomorphism. It's more friendly when there's a face on it.

And those complex triangulations that make it so hard to see the ice sheet; it's so confusing.

Extraneus's and Ignatz's psychiatrist

Post by: Extraneus | July 28, 2013 at 07:20 PM

Even if that was true, which it isn't, and changes in the earth's temperature could be attributed to combinations of other factors, such as ocean currents, shifts of tectonic plates, growths of oceans' plankton fields and shifts of this planet's axis to name just a few of those other dynamics, it will always be a safe bet (1) that your won't know squat about those issues, (2) that your opinions will be just bullshit, no facts, no substance, (3) that you won't have any credibility and (4) that you are nuttier than a squirrel turd.

Posted by: Extraneus's and Ignatz's psychiatrist | July 28, 2013 at 10:07 PM

The Psycho @ 10:07 doesn't know his temperature series from a can of Shinola. I'll bet he's out there about ocean currents, shifts of tectonic plates, and axis shifts, too.
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Posted by: Here we go loop-de-loo. | July 29, 2013 at 12:27 AM

You stupid turd. You retarded, knuckle-dragging Neanderthal. You said that without having a fucking clue, ANY knowledge or any insights whatsoever about those issues. The epitome of stupidity. We water plants in our garden that are smarter than you are. Seriously. You're a Democrat. That's for damned sure. You MO-ron. Straight out of the cast of extras for Deliverance.

What a dance podner you are.

Probably a Neanderthaler pig chimpanzee.
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jorod

You got to remember, our president knows everything. So what if Keystone would lower energy prices for millions of people. It's the jobs that count. Not what consumers save. The president is smarter than everyone else!!

I'm persuaded.

Oops, I screwed up. It's become plain that this pseudo psychiatrist is actually an expert climate scientist; he has all the latest alarmist talking points.
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glasater

For Kim:

This is what is going on in our small part of the world:

http://union-bulletin.com/news/2013/jul/27/program-pumps-liquefied-carbon-dioxide-underground/

They're injecting CO2 deep in the basalt layers in this area.

Extraneus's and Ignatz's psychiatrist

Ig:
Once you have a grievance to nurse the fragile human mind with its natural self pity reflex is hard put to think of anything those responsible for their supposed injury don't deserve.

It's almost enough to make one feel sorry for Anne.

Posted by: hit and run | July 29, 2013 at 12:47 AM
________________________________________________

I'm sure that, like drooling, that bizarre thought makes perfect sense to you, and, if it is a consolation, perhaps even to a few of the other drooling, comatose psychopaths here, too.

But it won't make sense to a rational person, you sick and vicious, little creep. It is the really crazy rationale that one would expect of a slimy Jew.

Extraneus's and Ignatz's psychiatrist

"alarmist talk"? Improve your reading comprehension. Then maybe we'll talk.

another yenta

arse - I'm so ready to get some semblance of a life back.

Oy vey, We wish that you would, darl'n. We're so sick of reading your bitching, gossiping and whining. Once a month of you is enough.

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Wilson/Plame