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August 06, 2013

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Ignatz

--a mere 67 years old--

Funny how our perspective changes. :)

peter

Yeah, even fitness buffs can have blockages. My brother ran Boston marathon several times successfully and had to have a bypass. Asymptomatic.

NK

Get well soon GWB!-- good man, very good Christian.

jimmyk

Keynesian interpretation: If it hadn't been for all that fitness, he would have had a worse blockage five years ago. Years created or saved.

Paleo types claim that heavy cardio like running 5+ miles a day is bad for your heart. Not that I really need an excuse not to run 5+ miles a day.

Best wishes for GWB.

NK

Academic Economist Interpretation: ASSUME a properly functioning artery, problem solved ;)

henry

ACA Death Panel Interpretation: stents are for loyal minions, suck on it you nasty Republican!

NK

Ding, Ding, Ding: Henry is thread comment winnah IMHO!

glasater

Henry's always a winner :)

JIB

This is what biking, clearing grub, chopping wood and driving cattle get you.

OT: Where is the outrage? White guy sitting outside waiting for a ride is accosted by 3 black guys and is murdered. This is in Jacksonville on the Southside.

narciso

This will not help matters;

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-05/sebelius-hits-critics-of-health-law-for-misstating-costs.html

nor is Weatherford caving on the SYG hearings.

Old Lurker

But who's counting? I am sure the Reps will fix all this, right? Open borders will do it, right? Expanded entitlements and health care...that's the ticket!

Worth cutting and pasting the whole thing:

"A new study by University of California-San Diego economics professor James Hamilton finds that the United States has over $70 trillion in off-balance sheet liabilities--an amount nearly six times the on-balance-sheet debt figure.

The Treasury debt outstanding is $16.74 trillion. Of that, $4.84 trillion is money the U.S. owes itself. For that reason, explains Matt Phillips of Quartz, “many analysts tend to focus on the $11.91 trillion in debt that is publicly available to be traded.”

Hamilton’s study, however, examined the federal liabilities that are not included in the government’s officially reported numbers. Specifically, he examined the federal government’s “support for housing, other loan guarantees, deposit insurance, actions taken by the Federal Reserve, and government trust funds.”
Not surprisingly, Hamilton found that Medicare and Social Security represent the bulk of future U.S. debt obligations, coming in at $27.6 trillion and $26.5 trillion respectively.

The study's $70 trillion debt estimate may actually be overly optimistic. Boston University economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff, who served on President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, says the nation’s true debt obligations are three times that figure.
"If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. That's the fiscal gap," Kotlikoff told National Public Radio. "That's our true indebtedness."

Hamilton concedes that other scholars may arrive at different figures.

“Some may argue that the current off-balance-sheet liabilities of the U.S. federal government are smaller than those tabulated here; others could arrive at larger numbers," writes Hamilton. "But one thing seems undeniable—they are huge.”

NK

OT (is it ever OT to denounce the Left?)--
the victims of NYC gangs, the black and brown people who live side by side with the gangstas. They suffer, they pay the price. And when that disgrace Fed Judge effectively bars Stop/Frisk-- these peoples' lives will suffer immeasurably, not her's in greenwich Village of the UWS: http://www.myfoxny.com/story/23051209/gangs-of-new-york-where-street-crews-rule-boys-have-few-options

sweet potato

I just want to see the MRI for Georgie and Cheney to see if the walnut-sized organ has the capability for circulation/blood to the brain of similar volume.

GMax

You would probably need to extract your head from your anal cavity to have any hope of seeing the MRI...

narciso

They will be getting the vapors now;

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/08/3-dead-4-wounded-in-ross-township-pennsylvania-shooting-police-holding-suspect/

Frau Kralle

JiB @ 12:11 - Will victim or killers have photos as 12-yr olds published in paper?

Frau Kralle

NK - Soros will fix NY's problems by opening his heart wallet to provide the city with the right his choice of mayor:

De Blasio has also proposed taxing the city’s wealthiest residents to pay for a $500 million program that would provide universal all-day pre-kindergarten and after-class programs for middle-school students. Soros said the plan would “have a powerful impact on reducing inequality and improving the lives of generations of New Yorkers.”

Generations! Who would not fall for that?

narciso

So, not exactly like we were told;


http://bigstory.ap.org/article/state-dept-posts-19-countries-remain-closed

Free State Paul

They discovered it during an annual physical. Does that mean he was asymptomatic?

Maybe it just means that Dubya's physical was at the end of the month, and the cardiologist still needed to make payroll.

Free State Paul

@Narcisco:

An intercepted secret message between al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahri and his deputy in Yemen about plans for a major terror attack was the trigger that set off the current shutdown of many U.S. embassies, two officials told The Associated Press on Monday.

Maybe AQ is just spoofing the US. One "secret" message (wink-wink) and embassies are shut down for a week all across the ME.

MarkO

AQ had no idea the US was eavesdropping.

Free State Paul

AQ had no idea the US was eavesdropping.

I guarantee you that thanks to Saudi Arabia, AQ knows more about US intelligence capabilities than either you or I.

Free State Paul

...not to mention Pakistani ISI.

narciso

About a week ago, before the alert was posted, Time had Al Asiri, on their inside piece, with the notion that he had moved up in AQAP, then we learn from Jocelyn, that Wuhayshi has been promoted up as well,

JohnH

Bill Rodgers and Arthur Ashe unavailable for comment.

Porchlight

I don't know why fitness buffs think they're exempt from anything. A friend is a fitness buff cyclist and only 47; he went in because his cycling buddy noted that his heart rate monitor showed an elevated rate. He was in triple bypass surgery the next morning. Thankfully all has gone well.

Marlene

Speaking of fitness buffs...Maine has a Weiner. Eric Brakey, a conservative candidate for Maine Senate District 15 says he's proud of a video that shows him dancing in a Speedo. Brakey is an aspiring politician and actor. One of his acting gigs was an ad for "Vita Coco."
Brakey said the idea is.."people drink it and they want to dance and be Brazilian,so you've got people in Speedos dancing in the ad." Seems to be a dust-up between Brakey and social values conservatives, one who called Brakey *flamboyant.* (sorry,not linking to the video)

GMax

Chevy drops price of electric lemon, Volt 12.5% in a desperate effort to drum up some demand. I guess Obama bought as many as he could and no more suckers remain. Its a steal at $34,900 for a car that will at some point have to replace some very very expensive batteries.

jimmyk

Marlene, that sounds more like a Scott Brown than a Weiner, if you subtract the "conservative" and the Speedo.

Porchlight

Its a steal at $34,900 for a car that will at some point have to replace some very very expensive batteries.

Sheesh. I could buy a deluxe minivan for $34,900 and put 100K miles on it and still sell it for $10K.

Captain Hate

Marlene's story supports my hypothesis that most people in politics are mentally ill.

Porchlight

Wagging the dog, part 23541

http://freebeacon.com/terror-threat-intelligence-not-new/

Intelligence regarding al Qaeda plans to attack U.S. embassies, officials, and interests last Sunday was known for months by U.S. intelligence agencies but was used only recently to trigger the closure of embassies and issuance of public warnings of impending attacks.
narciso

There's no alcohol in Vita Coco, so I don't know what he was drinking, lol.

centralcal

Ha, Porch. Someone earlier (on Twitter, maybe?) called it wagging the puppy tail!

Thomas Collins
"dancing in a Speedo"

Has he taken lessons from Alexis Wright, Marlene?

rich@gmu

Porchlight-

It is starting to look like it. Another possibility is that it looks like a full retreat. Wonder what is really going on?

rich@gmu

smoked some people with a hellfire in Yeman too. BOOM!!!

Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet

I suspect that although W was asymptomatic (i.e., no chest discomfort or the like) failed his treadmill test and underwent a diagnostic catheterization procedure. The procedure likely revealed a minor blockage which they corrected on the spot with an angioplasty and stent. This is a relatively minor interventional procedure performed on countless thousands of patients daily throughout the country.

My 70 year old asymptomatic brother recently had a similar experience, but he had multiple blockages which necessitated triple by-pass surgery. He sailed through the operation and is doing very well post-op.

jimmyk

Sheesh. I could buy a deluxe minivan for $34,900 and put 100K miles on it and still sell it for $10K.

And drive it for more than 50 miles at a stretch without having to recharge it for 12 hours.

As for the embassy closings, maybe August is time when the employees wanted paid vacations. Not to mention hot as hell in those middle Eastern countries (make Rome seem like San Diego).

NK

FOR RSE and other 'Climate/Temp' Devotees, Dr Spencer's July UAH-Satellite temp readings are out. Not very hot out there-- .2C above the 1980-2010 30 year trend. The 15 years without warming continues. I'm getting old-- hope the world doesn't get any colder.

Free State Paul

Its a steal at $34,900 for a car that will at some point have to replace some very very expensive batteries.

But after the batteries lose enough efficiency so that they are no longer good enough for transportation purposes, they can still hold a significant charge. So, you take them out, put them in your basement, and after a couple of cars you have a UPS for your house!

Thomas Collins

I'm voting against wag the dog (Porchlight), al-Qaeda disinformation campaign (Codevilla) and full retreat (rich@gmu), notwithstanding my respect of the analytical powers of all three. I'm voting Valerie Jarrett clearing her head while she decides what to do next in the Middle East.

DrJ

And drive it for more than 50 miles at a stretch without having to recharge it for 12 hours.

Ugh. The Volt is not a pure electric vehicle -- it uses an on-board IC engine to recharge the battery while the car is moving. Its range is about 380 miles per tank of gas.

Of course you can plug it in at night and run off the battery for short distances. But you are not limited to that.

I think the Volt is a pretty good idea, actually, and well executed (if a bit small). But it is too expensive at the moment, and probably always will be.

Porchlight

I think I would vote for retreat, but hey, no reason not to employ a convenient distraction when needed.

Of course it must be pointed out that a retreat for us is a win for AQ. That just might be part of the overall strategy since we appear to be providing them arms and aid all over the region.

narciso

Can we use the excuse, of the Embassy being closed to keep them over there:


http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/08/mccain-and-lindsey-graham-urge-egyptian-officials-to-release-jailed-muslim-brotherhood-members/

Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet

Just when I thought NancyBoy and McFriends could not get much more ridiculous in their so-called diplomatic efforts. Seems like they are now firmly in JF****** Kerry pro MB camp.

Frau Edith Steingehirn

Who really is Pres. Paper Tiger - ValJar or Barry?

Donald

I hate to go here, but the Volt is not a bad car, when the batteries drain, it converts to gas and gets about 38 mpg.

A good friend of mine, an engineer (who built his own charging station at home and has access to one at work) did extensive research, competitive shopped and took the plunge. It's actually pretty nice and he hasn't had to gas up yet (he only drives it to work so far).

Wouldn't work for me at this time, but aside charging stations become available, I can see hybrids as a good option.

Donald

As charging. Sorry.

Porchlight

How much does the electricity cost?

jimmyk

I stand corrected. I mixed it up with the Leaf, which I think is pure electric. And to be fair, claims 75 miles on a charge.

NK

Hybrids make no sense because of hecause of the intial price point and gas is ONLY $4/gal (at $10gal they start to make sense.). In the future, straight electrics for short range local use (running off of cheap Nat Gas generated electricity) and Clean Diesel made from nat gas refinery for long haul will be the most cost effective transportation fuels. The Sheiks and Goldman Sachs' traders petroleum pricing will cost them the transport fuel market.

txantimedia

I've always said that exercise is highly overrated.

jimmyk

The Leaf is also around $30,000. Maybe they will get cheaper, but for now it seems like pure electric cars are not economical or practical, and who wants to have multiple vehicles for short-haul and long-haul?

sweet potato

Forget electric for now. Go get a CNG vehicle.

jimmyk

To change topics, Iowahawk and others are having fun with the NYT's fawning 3000-word profile of Katherine Weymouth, published Sunday and obsolete the next day. The profile itself sounds like a self-parody, almost as bad as that Huma piece in NY Magazine.

http://www.thewrap.com/media/column-post/writer-nyt-profile-wapos-katharine-weymouth-says-her-work-still-stands-108651

Free State Paul

It's actually pretty nice and he hasn't had to gas up yet (he only drives it to work so far).

How does the Volt handle the fact that gasoline "goes bad" over time?

Ranger

I think they should start calling these two Dumb, Dumber, and even Dumber:

McCain contradicts Obama and Kerry in Egypt: Yes, Morsi’s ouster was a “coup”

http://hotair.com/archives/2013/08/06/mccain-contradicts-obama-and-kerry-in-egypt-yes-morsis-ouster-was-a-coup/

The rest, as they say, is silence.

BR

Cap d'Agde - Fitness in the buff :)

Some Guy

A good friend of mine, an engineer (who built his own charging station at home and has access to one at work) did extensive research, competitive shopped and took the plunge. It's actually pretty nice and he hasn't had to gas up yet (he only drives it to work so far).

He might not love the Volt if he had to pay a genuine market price. There is about a quarter of million dollar *per* car subsidies artificially deflating the price and solely responsible for the car not getting sh**canned prior to full production.

Free State Paul

Forget electric for now. Go get a CNG vehicle.

Even fewer places to "fill up" than plug in electric. Plus the fact that if a CNG vehicle springs a leak in an enclosed garage or parking structure -- KABOOOOOM!!!

Good ol' gasoline is the perfect vehicle fuel. Relatively safe, easy to store and refuel, energy dense. Natural gas should be used to replace oil for things like chemical feedstocks.

Rex

I've avoided the whole electric-hybrid-ethanol contretemps by buying a diesel pickup truck! (And it's not underpowered.)

NK

RE/FSP-- Clean diesel IMO will win out in North America-- Shell is already building a Nat Gas to Diesel plant, and the price point is a stable $2.80/gal (plus tax.) That's less than @2.50/gal gasoline equivalent given better highway mileage. All USA sourced and manufactured. Suck on that Muzzies and Venezuelans! In North Anmerica petroleum may become a specialty transport fuel (JP-7) and North American crude and refined supplies will be more than enough. Suck on that too Saud and Sultan!

rich@gmu

TC-

I'm voting Valerie Jarrett clearing her head while she decides what to do next in the Middle East.

What's she doing, drawing lots on which ones to bomb? That certainly get the attention off all the administrations problems.

NK

RE = Rex

matt

We are going to see a huge change in regional trucking in the next few years, I think. There are already a lot of taxi fleets and buses running NG. Now that NG semi-tractors are available it will have even greater impact.

NG makes all the sense in the world for routes under 300 - 350 miles/day.

Imagine all of the delivery trucks that we could power with cheap NG. Imagine all of the clean air. Imagine the lower shipping costs passed along to the consumer.

But only 50 long term jobs will be created with Keystone XL.

Free State Paul

@Rex

In the long run, I think small, hi-efficiency, turbocharged, clean diesel technology will surpass electric and hybrid technology in terms of cost-effectiveness. Diesels have potential for very high thermal efficiency -- it's a question of developing new materials to withstand the heat and high compression.

A simple diesel setup is preferable to heavy batteries or -- even worse -- hybrid battery + internal combustion engine. Cheaper & lighter.

A lot of the increase in mileage in the future will come from "lightweighting." Once carbon fibers are cheap enough, it will replace steel.

Free State Paul

We are going to see a huge change in regional trucking in the next few years, I think. There are already a lot of taxi fleets and buses running NG.

NG is viable for fleets -- where the vehicles return "home" every night and can be refueled at a central location.

MarkO

The best way to understand Obama's foreign policy is to ask yourself, "What would a 13 year old do?"

GMax

Well I stand by the fact that I have seen little analysis on how long the batteries will last, and what they will cost to replace. As we know, batteries degrade over time and must be replaced. Got any old wireless phones in your house? Do they tend to go dead sooner after a charge as the time passes?

I have an engineer friend who went into the dealership and started asking these questions. Salesman did not have any answers for those questions. Its not like its not a very good question, so is it an inconvenient answer?

NK

A Chinese Nat Gas company which has invested in a USA long-haul diesel engine manufacturer is building Nat gas stations along trucking routes. I think day trip fleets and long-haul trucking will both go nat gas diesel because of the price point and reliable supply. The Nat Gas diesel engine price point is comparable, the issue is retrofitting millions of current diesels on the road. Boone Pickens has been lobbying for tax credits to pay for the retrofits.

Free State Paul

As we know, batteries degrade over time and must be replaced.

I do believe the Volt batteries are covered under warranty for something like 8 years/100,000 miles.

There is talk that used EV batteries -- which are still something like 80% -- could be recycled to store power for solar, wind and other intermittent sources of electricity to even out the flow.

NK

Nat Gas Diesel engine prices comparable WHEN they are mass produced when refueling infrastructure is available. Right now they are still a speciality manufacture and more expensive per engine.

rich@gmu

The best way to understand Obama's foreign policy is to ask yourself, "What would a 13 year old do?"

run from the schoolyard bully looking for lunch money?

MarkO

Football on your phone:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jn5zytfm9No&feature=player_embedded

jimmyk

There was this piece by Bjorn Lomborg in the WSJ back in March:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324128504578346913994914472.html

Not sure if it's available outside the paywall, but here he writes:

Consider the Nissan Leaf. It has only a 73-mile range per charge. Drivers attempting long road trips, as in one BBC test drive, have reported that recharging takes so long that the average speed is close to six miles per hour—a bit faster than your average jogger.

To make matters worse, the batteries in electric cars fade with time, just as they do in a cellphone. Nissan estimates that after five years, the less effective batteries in a typical Leaf bring the range down to 55 miles. As the MIT Technology Review cautioned last year: "Don't Drive Your Nissan Leaf Too Much."

NK

JimmyK-- thanks for that link. The facts about batteries for transportation are stubborn things... beyond the battery performance, replacement cost etc. shall we talk about the scarcity of the battery raw material?

Free State Paul

"Don't Drive Your Nissan Leaf Too Much."

A neighbor's 20-something kid just bought a Leaf. Not only did he get federal, state and local tax breaks to buy it, but since he had leukemia as a child he was able to get the county to pay for the home charger as a medical expense (so that he doesn't have to handle carcinogenic gasoline).

How a young man can rely on a car with just 75 mile range (he swears it's 100) is beyond me.

I'm waiting to see how long before he sells it and buys are real vehicle.

jimmyk

In that piece Lomborg also skewers any notion that there is less fossil fuel usage or other environmental benefits from electric cars. Not just the electricity generation, but the upfront energy usage to make the cars:

"A 2012 comprehensive life-cycle analysis in Journal of Industrial Ecology shows that almost half the lifetime carbon-dioxide emissions from an electric car come from the energy used to produce the car, especially the battery."

JIB

When you look at fuels, you need to also look at their energy density. CNG has an energy density 70% of gas and diesel. You are losing a lot of bang for the buck there. Plus you have limited vehicle choice and hardly any fueling infrastructure.

Bush 43's surgery story reminds me that he was on the right track with investment in hydrogen fuel technology - that to me is where we should be going - if you can fix the inherent risks - you can get a really big BOOM out of Hydrogen:)

Free State Paul

hydrogen fuel technology

Hydrogen is not a fuel. It is an energy storage system. You can't "find" hydrogen in its pure state anywhere, like you can find oil or NG. You need to manufacture it with some other form of energy.

Marlene

TC,did you see my mention of the Zumba documentary on TLC tonight?
The daughter has a Ford C-Max and it is perfect for city driving. We rode around DC in it last month and it is a sweet little car.

NK

Ford's small car line, Fiesta C-Max and Focus are all excellent cars. My Son has a Focus, 1yo, no problems, real comfy. His is gasoline, the Diesel in EuroLand gets ridiculous highway mileage.

sbwaters

Cap d'Agde? Isn't Clarice in the Mediterranean?

jimmyk

And speaking of fitness, has anyone seen Michael Moore recently?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2385168/London-Fatberg-weighing-15-TONNES-blocking-sewers.html

NK

jimmyK-- Heh!

Thomas Collins

I didn't notice it, Marlene, but I just checked out an ad for it online. Did the pimp really only get 20 days in the hoosegow while Professor Wright is behind bars for 10 months?

JIB

FSP

Poor choice of words on my part but you get the drift. But it is a form of energy - whether you want to parse the words or not. It is the "fuel" in Fuel Cell technology which I have worked on in my professional life. Now extracting H from water can be pretty energy intensive itself but not as depleting if you want to extract it from biomass or fossil fuels themselves.

But in fuel cell technology you are combining it to produce electricity which is the energy used to propel the car. You can say its not a fuel but then electricity is not a fuel either but it took a fuel to generate it.

matt

The show I went to was pitching NG Diesels to large distribution companies like UPS, Coke, beer distributors, etc.

300-350 miles is the sweet spot for a lot of those companies. LA-Vegas, LA-SFO, Boston - Philly, NYC - DC. Taxis likewise drive 250-300 miles/day. Makes all the sense in the world.

I have carbon composites in a couple of my cars. Very light, but the cost to replace is very high. Boeing is having some real issues with its suppliers for the 787 and yields on carbon components are a part of the issue.

Porchlight

I am still curious how much it costs to charge the car.

DrJ

Porch,

The Volt has a 16 kW-hr battery. Electricity costs vary a lot around here, but let's use a number of $0.08/kW-hr (our baseline number). That means it costs about $1.28 to charge a Volt battery from no charge to full.

jimmyk

Porch, there's not a simple answer. As I understand it, the electricity cost is probably around $3-5 depending on where you live (getting you around 70-75 miles), so maybe half the cost of gasoline. But according to the Leaf website, a home charger costs $1000, plus another $1000 if you want it installed with a 3-year warranty. So if you charge the car 100 times/year, you save $500 over gasoline, but it can cost you $2000 up front.

Jack is Back!

Life cycle costs + RAM analysis and you will find that the gasoline/disel IC engine always comes out on top.

Why?

Because of the A in RAM, thats why. Until some of the biggies step up BIGTIME that is the way it will always be.

jimmyk

My answer was based on what I'd read about the Leaf. It has a 24 KWH battery. Around here, electricity runs more like $0.12/KWH. So maybe it's more like $2-3/charge.

Porchlight

Thanks DrJ and jimmyk. So either way you are looking at less $ than gas, but it will take a while to recoup costs of a home charger. Since the warranty on the battery doesn't seem to last more than 8 years/$100K, (I may be confusing the Volt and the Leaf here) I wonder how many people will actually fully recoup. If your goal is saving the planet, I guess maybe you wouldn't care about that part of things. I have never had that goal, so I wouldn't know.

Now another question - is it true that the cars are super quiet when running on electricity alone? I wonder about the safety of that. I cross streets as much with my ears as with my eyes and I suspect a lot of other people do too, whether they realize it or not.

narciso

So they are finally getting around to indicting Abu Khattlah, maybe the process server will bring orange juice to 'Little Kandahar'

Porchlight

8 years/$100K

Oops, sorry, not $100K, 100K miles...

DrJ

jimmyk,

Our electricity rates vary a lot. Baseline rates are low, but they ratchet up to $0.30/kW-hr or more pretty quickly, depending on your usage. At that rate, the Leaf would take about $7.20 to charge fully, assuming no transfer losses.

is it true that the cars are super quiet when running on electricity alone?

Yes -- it is almost eery.

narciso

Speaking of clutching their heart, Disney is taking a loss upwards of 160 M, for the Lone Ranger.

Some Guy

If your goal is saving the planet…

…you would not buy a new car of any kind.

However, nobody who wants to save the planet ever does anything that will save the planet. Their goal is to feel good about thinking they are saving the planet.

I just wish they’d do something simple to reduce CO2 admissions, like shut up.

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