Warming Up

The next round of IPCC reports on climate change will take an even less equivocal position on anthropogenic global warming:

Climate Panel Cites Near Certainty on Warming

By JUSTIN GILLIS

An international panel of scientists has found with near certainty that human activity is the cause of most of the temperature increases of recent decades, and warns that sea levels could conceivably rise by more than three feet by the end of the century if emissions continue at a runaway pace.

The scientists, whose findings are reported in a draft summary of the next big United Nations climate report, largely dismiss a recent slowdown in the pace of warming, which is often cited by climate change doubters, attributing it most likely to short-term factors.

The report emphasizes that the basic facts about future climate change are more established than ever, justifying the rise in global concern. It also reiterates that the consequences of escalating emissions are likely to be profound.

“It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010,” the draft report says. “There is high confidence that this has warmed the ocean, melted snow and ice, raised global mean sea level and changed some climate extremes in the second half of the 20th century.”

...

The 2007 report found “unequivocal” evidence of warming, but hedged a little on responsibility, saying the chances were at least 90 percent that human activities were the cause. The language in the new draft is stronger, saying the odds are at least 95 percent that humans are the principal cause.

I wonder whether this will change anyone's mind about the underlying reality or the appropriate response. The Times provides this incomplete taxonomy:

Some climate doubters challenge the idea that the earth is warming at all; others concede that it is, but deny human responsibility; still others acknowledge a human role, but assert that the warming is likely to be limited and the impacts manageable. Every major scientific academy in the world has warned that global warming is a serious problem.

Hmm, what do the Times consider those of us who think that, whether the climate impact is manageable or not, the proposed remediations are too expensive, insufficient, and, since China and India have not been on board, incomplete? On the question of China, this report is interesting - higher sea levels will hit China hard.

When greens back nuclear (esp. thorium) and the substitution of fracked natural gas for coal I will believe that they believe we have a global warming crisis.

Comments

[Dubya does Dallas]

"Let's talk about the ramifications of being a chicken shit political party."

Heh. Watching Sopranos the other night saw the episode where Bokeem Woodbine tries to muscle Hesh out of some residuals from the music biz.

Hesh refuses and the gangsta says 'I'm gonna do what I have to do"

'What does that mean' Hesh replies.

"I'm gonna call my lawyer"

[centralcal]

I am in total agreement with Clarice!

Macaca-CACA
Birther-CACA

Whatever they throw at us, we throw it back with the addition of CACA and with heavy accent on the CACA.

Media-CACA
New York Times-CACA
Washington Post-CACA

[Threadkiller]

"Sleezers"

[centralcal]

On a side note, this crapola software is doing even more freaky things than usual.

I notice it all this week - it refuses to take things in All Caps in one comment, but will take it in All Caps in another comment.

The above "caca" should be in All Caps.

[Threadkiller]

"Issa is a staunch critic of the president. But maybe he shouldn't be. Looking at his worth in 2008, Issa has significantly increased his wealth, adding 121 percent to his total valuation. In other words, his wealth more than doubled under Obama.

Of the nine members of Congress whose wealth increased since 2008 (and for whom we have data), five are Republicans — a pretty even split between the parties."

http://m.utsandiego.com/news/2013/Aug/20/issa-wealthiest-member-congress/

Make of it what you will.

[Danube of Thought]

James D, my brother and sister-in-law are here for a few days; they live about a mile from the ANCC and have been playing it a couple of times a week for many years. They are out right now but I'll ask them when they come back.

From ages 5-7 and 11-13 I lived in Alexandria and swam there every single day in the summers. As I recall, the membership was entirely military officers then, but now I believe it is majority civilian. Within the past year they have built an entirely new clubhouse which my brother gave me a tour of last time I was back there. Quite and improvement.

More later.

[Ignatz]

Sounds like WeeDavey is mainly upset that the Republicans are too chicken to take the rotting albatross from around his party's neck.

[centralcal]

Nicolle Wallace-CACA
GOP Strategist-CACA

Nicole Wallace: Cruz is Lying... - C A C A

[James D.]

Thanks,DoT! (and JiB as well!).

[Captain Hate on an iPhone]

Camille has always seen through the Arkansas grifters; too bad she was so blind to Gaylord Focker's abundant and obvious flaws.

[Danube of Thought]

OK, here's the deal. The course has been substantially re-designed over the course of a number of years, but the process is now complete. The object was to make it as close as possible to a links course, so there's a lot of marsh grass and the like.

It consists of three nine-hole courses (Red, White and Blue). If you're going to play 18, they will tell you which two nines to play. No hole is particularly tricky, except maybe Blue 9.

End of report.

[NK]

Col West is a proud black man-- 'proud' in the best sense: http://dailycaller.com/2013/08/21/allen-west-on-bored-teen-murderers-who-will-president-obama-identify-with-in-this-case/

[Extraneus]

Why is that mean man Ted Cruz scaring these people?

[Jim Eagle]

DoT, James D,

I believe they just recently added the white course if that is any help but I could be wrong. Also, of interest is that a number of people have shown up to play the Arlington course when in fact they had booked or had a tee time booked for them at the Fairfax course a half hour away. Vice Versus also. The Fairfax is the much better course since it is a Robert Trent Jones, Sr. design.

[DrJ]

James D,

Why don't you give the course a call to see if you can get a tour and perhaps hear some stories? I'd bet they have a PR group of some sort, and the opportunity to have their course featured in a favorable light in an upcoming book would probably be rather attractive. I'd bet you they bite.

[Some Guy]

Jane,

The term you are looking for is "coprophagia"...

Because the only ones who eat it up are of the same breed making the steaming piles.

[jimmyk]

The problem is that your view requires both the journalists and government personnel to be far more moral and decent human beings than they mostly seem to be.

Agreed, but the bottom line is that journalists as a profession have disqualified themselves from the task of oversight as a result of their blatant bias and toadying up to the current administration. So Greenwald is full of it. We are left with the classic question of "Qui custodiet ipsos custodes."

[MarkO now being monitered by the NSA on this site]

There are no "journalists;" only writers and readers. The sooner we correct this error, the better.

[jimmyk]

Talk about getting warmer, Chapter 273 of the world gone mad: Sorry if this was discussed already, but this is really unbelievable, except that it's California.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/08/13/california-gov-brown-signs-transgender-student-bill/

This is for K-12 students: Anyone who "feels transgendered" is entitled to use the restroom or locker room of the opposite sex.

[Extraneus]

Drudge is showing Hillary at Mt. Rushmore over PAGLIA: WHAT HAS HILLARY DONE? now. :-)

[Extraneus]

Drudge:

PAGLIA: WHAT HAS HILLARY DONE?

[jimmyk]

MarkO, I think it's reasonable to have a word for people who make a living (or otherwise devote a lot of time to) writing about news and current events, one that distinguishes them from playwrights and poets, for example. I don't think they should be entitled to any special privileges.

[MarkO now being monitered by the NSA on this site]

jimmyk,

I think there is such a thing as a journalist, I'm suggesting we don't have any.

[jimmyk]

Got it MarkO, I thought you were alluding to earlier discussions about special privileges that required somehow defining who and who is not a journalist. We are in agreement that the profession has self-destructed, though there are a few isolated cases of individuals committing journalism (Sharyl Atkisson, for example).

[Some Guy]

Speaking of coprophagia, the leftysphere is atwitter with another ‘gee, see how dumb these republicans are’ story. It’s based on poll of alleged Louisiana GOPers who responded to the following question:

Who do you think was more responsible for the poor response to Hurricane Katrina: George W.Bush or Barack Obama?

Since 29% said BO, it’s (in their minds) proof of how stupid republicans are because the LightBringer was only a freshman Senator at the time, and everyone knows (again only in their minds) that it was GWB who ‘botched’ the Katrina response.

What these dorks aren’t particularly interested in is that apparently there are several good reasons why Louisianans might blame the current administration for the poor (ongoing) response. That $700Million of relief funds that are ‘missing’ that was just reported this year is one example.

[Appalled]

In the following link is an Obamacare disaster you have not heard about yet. But it is probable that your doctor has:

http://healthblog.ncpa.org/obamacares-biggest-wrong-collecting-the-premiums/

Nancy Pelosi was wrong. You need to read the regulations to learn what was in the bill.

[Jane -May2014 Be there or Be Square]

I like the caca - but we need an acronym.

Many assholes carping about clever anecdotes.

Where is BGates when we need him?

I also like coprophagia. However there is not a chance on the planet I will remember how to spell it.

[Ranger]

Appalled,

That story also helps clear up how the subsidy gets paid. It goes directly to the insurance company as an advanced tax credit on behalf of the insurance purchaser. So the individual buying the insurance never sees the "generous subsidy". And, if your income situation is significantly different when you file your taxes then it was when you applied for your insurance, you will get hit with a nice surprise. How many people will discover in April, 2015, that they aren't getting a tax refund because they lowballed their income estimate to get a bigger subsidy in in the fall of 2013?

[NK]

Ranger-- all true, but of course the Emperor Hussein I OFA Propoganda Ministry will issue continuous statements of TOTAL subsidies, how many newly insured etc. Like the IPCC, this is all about marketing/propaganda, not substance.

[pagar]

From Appalled's 02:17 Link--
"Did somebody say, “Train wreck?”

IMO, it will not be a train wreck. It will be like all the trains in the USA running head on into each other at the same time. It will be the total disaster of all disasters.

IMO, there will be millions of people whose paycheck just didn't have enough in it to pay for the baby's diapers and the insurance too.

[Ignatz]

OMG, Appalled, a train wreck indeed.

You pay nine months of premiums and if you don't pay your last three the insurer eats the first months costs, the doc and hospital the last two.
You get cancelled but then you re-up without penalty the first of the year.
The end of year costs could be staggering, as by then deductibles are often met and people have no out of pocket to deter casual and elective usage.

Thanks for linking that and good to see you commenting again.

[Account Deleted]

Appalled,

Thanks for the link. I appreciate the author's concern for the aspect of probable failure discussed but I anticipate somewhat less of an impact due to complete failure to enroll by the majority of those currently uninsured. The immortals comprise a much smaller segment of the uninsured population than does the -1SD segment and those in the -1SD segment who haven't bothered to enroll in Medicaid are unlikely to be led to enroll in BOzocare by the -1SD facilitators being hired to provide "assistance".

The reaction of the immortals is going to be of the most interest to me. James D. should consider doing a weekly series of vignettes on the Perils of Julia Lackwitz, the 35 year old assistant manager of a Starbucks who had such high hopes for affordable insurance, now that those nasty insurers could no longer penalize her for the herpes she contracted some time during the eight years she spent accruing $125K of student debt before receiving her degree in French Literature.

I don't believe the immortals are going to be pleased at all when they see the bill for unwanted "affordable" insurance.

[Danube on iPad]

Sounds like Camille is hankering for Scott Walker.

[Danube of Thought]

The Hill:

Controversy over the National Security Agency’s surveillance programs is eroding President Obama’s popularity — particularly among young voters.

Some polls show a double-digit drop in Obama’s approval rating since Edward Snowden revealed NSA secrets, weakening the president ahead of fall fights with congressional Republicans over the budget and immigration.

Polling taken by The Economist and YouGov finds a 14-point swing in Obama’s approval and disapproval rating among voters aged 18-29 in surveys taken immediately before the NSA revelations and last week. Overall, the swing in Obama’s approval rating moves just four points.

[NK]

I certainly HOPE Pagar/RickB are right about the train wreck that derails ObummerCare. My pessimistic reaction is, that the train wreck will lead Drs., Hosp. working Stiffs and TPs to all beg for relief, and Obummer agrees to 'Relief' in the form of a TEMPORARY SP until the Exchanges and subsidies are sorted out-- which will be never. Voila-- SP system, stroke of a pen.

[pagar]

Here we go again.

http://moelane.com/2013/08/21/war-on-women-kentucky-john-arnold-sexual-harassment/

"I mention this because the employees first went to their superiors in the Legislative Research Commission, which is not an independent agency – and the LRC tried to shut things down. Like Democratic-controlled groups do when faced with sexual harassment charges."

[Bruce Hayden]

I am perfectly happy with global warming, if it indeed exists. I am sitting at the bottom of what was glacial Lake Missoula 13,000-15,000 years ago. Glacier from Canada would plug the end of the Clark Fork River just as it entered Idaho, and the water would back up almost 200 miles, well beyond Missoula. A lake with maybe half the volume of Lake Michigan would form, better than 1,000 feet deep where I am sitting now. Then, the water would eat away the glacier, the dam would burst, and all that water would devastate SE WA and NE OR. Then it would repeat. You can still see the high water marks in the Bighorn Sheep range 25 miles east of here.

[Ignatz]

--Then, the water would eat away the glacier, the dam would burst, and all that water would devastate SE WA and NE OR.--

Is there some way to channel it to NW WA and NW OR?
If so it goes from a bug to a feature.

[Manuel Transmission]

Hey! Give me a heads up before it does. I may need to refuel before getting out of the area.

[Dubya does Dallas]

" am perfectly happy with global warming,"

OMG ! NIMBY ! It's so good to have you back. No one else seems to have that antipathy toward fellow travelers.

[chemman]

"When greens back nuclear (esp. thorium) and the substitution of fracked natural gas for coal I will believe that they believe we have a global warming crisis."

Not good enough for me. When greens swear off suckling on the teat of big energy (coal, natural gas, oil and nuclear) and return to the more sustainable life style they want to dump on 3rd world nations then I'll believe they are serious.

[Ignatz]

Try a sea kayak, Man Tran; lot's of fun and a free trip to HI.

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