In Which I Foretell The Eventual Triumph Of Reality...

I have done a bit of whinging about how the Republican strategery of staging a debt-ceiling scuffle they can't fight and won't win has distracted from the ObamaCare debacle. Mickey Kaus notes that by letting the press discover the disaster on their very ownsome, the coverage is harsher. His punchline:

When your enemy is in the process of destroying himself, the worst thing to do to is stop him. But the second worst may be to have Darrell Issa hold hearings.

Good point! But my current view is that whether Mickey is right or not in terms of optimal Republican strategy won't matter (and how often could that be said of any of us...). Unlike abstract discussions of, for example, the existence and importance of rising income inequality or the quality of life in Baghdad or the changes in American life caused by untrammelled illegal immigration, the ObamaCare issues will be experienced by millions of Americans. The resolution (or revolution!) will also be lived, and soon.

In other words, time will tell! And pretty quickly. If these website problems can't be solved and the result is mess there will be no hiding it and the fun Obama has had in the last two weeks bashing irresponsible Republicans will be but a fading memory of glory past as the coverage shifts to this.

For folks not terrified by this Times coverage from last Sunday, Obama cheerleader Ezra Klein puts down the pom-poms and offers this nightmare - the front end failure has been so vast that we don't even know if the back end will work, but it doesn't seem to:

2. Are there problems behind the problems? In the weeks leading up to the launch I heard some very ugly things about how the system was performing when transferring data to insurers -- a necessary step if people are actually going to get insurance. I tried hard to pin the rumors down, but I could never quite nail the story, and there was a wall of official denials from the Obama administration. It was just testing, they said. They were fixing the bugs day by day.

According to Bob Laszlewski, those problems aren't resolved. They're just not getting much attention because the health-care law's Web sites aren't working well enough for people to get that far in the process. Laszlewski does a lot of work with the insurance industry, so I'd take this post of his very seriously:

The backroom connection between the insurance companies and the federal government is a disaster. Things are worse behind the curtain than in front of it"

Here is one example from a carrier–and I have received numerous reports from many other carriers with exactly the same problem. One carrier exec told me that yesterday they got 7 transactions for 1 person – 4 enrollments and 3 cancellations.

For some reason the system is enrolling, unenrolling, enrolling again, and so forth the same person. This has been going on for a few days for many of the enrollments being sent to the health plans. It has got on to the point that the health plans worry some of these very few enrollments really don’t exist.

The reconciliation system, that reconciles enrollment between the feds and the health plans, is not working and hasn’t even been tested yet.

So basically, we have a three step process. People try to establish an account and buy insurance; that step has failed miserably. Step 2, where the insurer gets the key information about their new customer, is under-utilized due to the failures at Step 1 but looks like it is failing in its own right. And Step 3, where the scorecards are checked and everything is reconciled, has not experienced live testing due to the failure at 1 and 2 but is untested and not working.

And anyone with a whiff of experience in developing systems knows that all three phases need to be integrated. That means the fixes and patches which eventually cobble Step 1 together need to flow through to Steps 2 and 3. Which takes a level of coordination and competence the project managers have not previously demonstrated.

I stand by my earlier vision - soon we will see Harry Reid demanding a delay to ObamaCare and Ted Cruz filibustering it so that ObamaCare can limp over a cliff.

KEEPING HOPE ALIVE: Ezra Klein links to this bit of wishful thinking by his colleague Sarah Kliff:

The last time the government expanded health care, it was also kind of a disaster

Apparently the Medicare Part D rollout in 2005 was glitchy but now all is well, so we can relax. Or at least keep our fingers crossed.

Oh, please. Most Part D participants already had some sort of drug coverage and were eager to find a cheaper alternative, or at least were keenly aware of the possible benefits of enrolling. Motivation was not a problem.

That is in stark contrast to the ObamaCare situation, where enrolling a lot of young invincibles who have never been bothered to buy health coverage in order to cross-subsidize the rest of us is key to the financial strategy. Trust me - website glitches or no, people with pre-existing conditions whose current insurance plan has been cancelled due to the advent of OabamCare will figure out a way to get coverage with or without the website. It is the young, web-savvy, 'maybe I will, maybe I won't, but there's no harm in looking' type of prospective client that won't bother calling an insurance broker and finding some other way into the system.

I continue to believe that Republicans need to end this debt ceiling drama and let the ObamaCare collpase take center stage. But if we are really talking about a train wreck rivalling the Titanic or the Hindenburg, then now is just as good as two weeks ago.

Comments

[henry]

Yes TM, this rollout will make the Hindenburg a mere glitch in the annals of flight by comparison.

[Mark Folkestad]

Dang it. Finally get out of Typhus Pad purgatory and I can't manage a first comment. Bravo, Henry!

[Threadkiller]

For Porch:

I don't see how the Kaus article leads to Issa Obamacare specific hearings.

If it did he would have referenced the IRS hearings of last week where the Republicans asked many Obamacare questions.

I took it as a general slam that Issa should shut up.

I could be wrong.

[[email protected]]

lol that the media is going to report it. pretty sure the pee czarina will do something the court press will slavishly follow.

or the media people that are writing about it don't need it because they get coverage (and it might be one of the problems with media people trying to either sign up or shop around) and they aren't going to be bothered to find some sickly hipster who may or may not be helped by the system.

[Porchlight]

TK,

I just replied on the last thread - reposting:

It was a general slam on Issa, TK. I don't agree with the slam. I just think [Kaus] is right that the bad Obamacare news gets out more efficiently to LIVs, esp. lib LIVs, if the MSM thinks they're being good bird dogs.

[[email protected]]

in other words, like the diarist over at DKoz...his political allies will to him that he is doing it wrong or he has been a traitor all along. given that, how many are going to even bother, when not having coverage works just as well.

[Threadkiller]

I agree, Porch.

[maryrose]

The more hearings the better. We must hold these people accountable for breaking the law. Obama,Holder,Jarrett break the law daily. These Park rangers think they can also .They are wrong. Prosecute them to the full extent of the law.Give them the Zimmerman treatment.

[Jane]

As soon as the debt ceiling is resolved Obama intends to push amnesty thru.

Changing the focus again.

[[email protected]]

Jane-

Yep. And the My Friends caucus will again lead the charge thinking if we are just a little less dem they'll still be a part of the club.

[NK(tryin'2.0)]

Here's the take of our friend in ChiTown which I agree with.

"The lack of response from the Admin on its mess is allowing the void to be filled with the LIV/DU noise that "The Insurance Companies are doing it, because the gov't is shut down." This meme started yesterday. Also, due to the changes, very, very few payments are being made through the normal payments systems (all pricing is controlled by Medicare) and I suspect a cash crunch is coming, as was designed. The disaster is DESIGNED to fail this way. Create a National crisis, then Nationalize the whole system."

[centralcal]

Mark Knoller ‏@markknoller 3m

Of the agreement, @SenJohnMcCain says we're now seeing the end of an "agonizing odyssey...one of more shameful chapters I've seen."

[lyle]

SenJohnMcCain says we're now seeing the end of an "agonizing odyssey...one of more shameful chapters I've seen."

The only way that could be true is if it pertains to your retirement, Sidney.

[centralcal]

Says one of the more shameful Senators ....

[steve]

"soon we will see Harry Reid demanding a delay to ObamaCare"

Tom, the online exchanges are but a small part of Obamacare. Don't forget the mandated coverage, elimination of lifetime caps and prior condition exclusions, imposing community rating and so on, all of which will hurt far more people than the relative few who haven't been able to access the online exchange... and there's no way any Democrat will ever agree to a delay in Obamacare as a whole.

And the troubles the online exchanges are having aren't really that big a deal. Glitch or not, the 'young invincibles' weren't going to rush to buy overpriced insurance. And to the extent that this resulted in relatively sicker people being the only ones buying insurance online, instead of the death spiral being forecast, the Obama Administration would simply unilaterally jack up the subsidies.

Bottom line, the online exchanges are a side show. It's almost as if they were designed to be bad in order to detract attention from the serious damage being done elsewhere.

[AliceH]

Exactly, steve.

Dozens of provisions (at least) have been rolled out since 2010, with the web/subsidy thing being just the most recent (and biggest public display of crapitude).

Here's a list of all the big implementations and their execution years: http://kff.org/interactive/implementation-timeline/

[NK(tryin'2.0)]

steve's overall point is vital-- couple of refinements. I don't see how the Obamaniacs up the subsidies, the immediate negative cash flow will drive the Exchanges under, and there is no budget authority to add to the subsidy amount, that's why vetting parasites for eligibility for subsidies is vital. Lots of congressional oversight needed here. Sideshow-- the whole thing is a sideshow, mandates and all, to pave the way for an emergency and Single Payer by Executive Order.

[Porchlight]

If McCain is unhappy, I'm happy. :)

[Beasts of England]

Of what is the shame you speak, Johnny boy?

[boris]

I don't care whether the government could make ObamaCare work or not. It's wrong.

Like arguing that socialism doesn't work. The people who want socialism don't care if it works or not ...
Socialism is F A I R
And capitalism is U N F A I R

Socialism is wrong. It feeds the worst elements of human nature.

[bunkerbuster]

Pay attention Boris. The argument liberals make for the ACA isn't that socialism is good, it's that it isn't socialism.
Making up bad arguments for liberals just so you can win one for once only makes you look feeble and/or dishonest.

[Patriot4Freedom]

Mark Folkestad -

Welcome back from Typhus Pad purgatory !
Nice to see you posting here again.

[steve]

"there is no budget authority to add to the subsidy amount"

NK: that's a good one. Since when has Obama let the lack of statutory authority stop him from doing what he wants? In Obama's words, "I don't need no stinkin budget authority".

[バンズ スリッポン]

This design is spectacular! You definitely know how to keep a reader entertained. Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own blog (well, almost...HaHa!) Wonderful job. I really enjoyed what you had to say, and more than that, how you presented it. Too cool!
バンズ スリッポン http://boots.fenyastravels.com/バンズ-japan-23.html