Sunday Afternoon Impulse Management

Bayesians will spot a minor flaw in this fascinating piece about the psychology of impulse management.

Comments

[DrJ]

First?

[MarkO]

I thought the would be about the ongoing war between Alec Balwin's Id and Superego.

[narciso]

So the Spanish version of my fishwrap turns up some more details from Latell's book, re the great mystery, that probably only Littell and now Stephen Hunter, have done it justice, De Lillo, having taken an unsuccessful run at.

[rich@gmu]

3rd..cue up the Chopin!

[Dave (in MA)]

First time I've heard a football announcer use the term post ergo propter hoc, I think. They're vamping due to a weather delay.

[Beasts of England]

How about Le Nozze di Figaro for the SF boys?

[narciso]

Well Mailer, probably came close as well:

http://therightscoop.com/spin-spin-spin-nancy-pelosi-tries-to-spin-her-way-out-of-her-obamacare-broken-promise/

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Here we go...this might be my new political party if the Republicans can't get their act together - http://washingtonexaminer.com/duck-dynasty-endorsed-republican-wins-la.-house-seat/article/2539272

The Duck Dynasty Party

[Danube on iPad]

Continued from the prior thread...

"I think your faith in what happens in two years, positing anarchy in the health care market with millions of policies cancelled, is misplaced. And I would reiterate: there is a window to repeal this thing, but it won't be open for very long."

I have no faith in any particular outcome in two years; I have no idea how this will play out. But I do see electoral benefits for the GOP. And this president will never - not ever - sign a repeal of this law, which means there must be 67 votes in the Senate to get it done. How much faith do you have in that?

[Jeff Dobbs]

So our house rep, Howard Coble is retiring. He's received the highest percentage of votes of any Republican representative in NC pretty much for the last who knows how many cycles, so the seat is safe Republican.

I was playing pool last night with a good ol' boy who pointed out a cover on one of the free weeklies that gets dropped off at the bar. It was a montage of all the possible candidates to take Coble's seat.

Counted among them were NASCAR drivers Kyle Petty and Terry Labonte.

I have no idea if either is really serious about running, and really what either's political views actually are.

Who cares, go for it. [insert Hillary quote here]

[peter]

Poor Tom. He tries so hard to come up with an interesting topic, and we all go OT on him. I feel bad. But-- I confess I didn't know what Bayesian means. So the whole thing goes right over my head. But I read the Taubes book on weight loss, if that makes you feel better. (It makes me feel better.)

[James D.]

So I'm actually rooting for the Redskins today (because they're playing the loathsome Eagles), and what are they doing?

Getting skunked (I don't think 17-0 is quite "slattered" territory, is it?).

And what the heck happened to Atlanta? I thought my Giants were a dreadful surprise this year, but the Falcons were 10 yards away from the Super Bowl last year, and this year they're 2-7, and losing by 18 points today to 1-8 Tampa Bay. Wow.

[narciso]

WEell you know the Stone's song;

http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2013/11/17/middle-east-diplomats-wonder-who-will-fill-the-regional-power-vacuum-as-america-withdraws/

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

I dunno DoT; in the next 11+ months a lot more disenchantment can happen. The bloom is already off the skunk cabbage.

[Beasts of England]

@peter - It's because we have poor impulse management. Perhaps it was directed at us!

[narciso]

I gave up on Cloud Atlas long ago, Captain, the Byzantine empire really did seem to go on for ever, some interesting treatments in Holland with the early clashes with the Arabs, in Crowley with Venice

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

From the last thread, somebody needs to tell Orca the only reason Gaylord Focker was elected and hasn't been impeached is because he's black.

[clarice]

I really tried to read this TM, but after the first page my eyes cloude over. Tell us what the flaw is, please.

[narciso]

An interesting brand of squirrel, which puts an interesting spin on things;

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/health-care-web-sites-lead-contractor-employs-executives-from-troubled-it-company/2013/11/15/6e107e2e-487a-11e3-a196-3544a03c2351_story.html

[James D.]

Spoke too soon. I think 24-0 qualifies as slattering, doesn't it?

[Sue]

WTH are the Pittsburg Steelers wearing?

[narciso]

ok, 'abandon all hope, ye who enter here' is the theme;

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

Those throwback Stoolers uniforms are hideous.

[daddy]

Good Morning!

From across the pond, a perfect example of why Govt Funded Organizations are incapable of responsibly spending Taxpayer's money, since it's free money, and there is no downside for screwing up:

Today's culprit---the BBC

What Lonely Planet is the BBC on?

Between 2007 and 2011 the BBC paid a total of 152 Million pounds ($245 Million) for ownership of the Lonely Planet Guidebook franchise.

In 2013, realizing they were losing their rear end on that idiotic purchase of Lonely Planet Travel Guides, they sold it for 51 Million pounds ($82 Million)

Overall loss in that 5 year investment, over 100 Million pounds ($161 Million).

But there's more!

In March this year, the BBC sold Lonely Planet for just £51.5 million, a £100 million loss. The person responsible for the deal left in December with an £800,000 pay-off. Why the corporation ever needed to own an Australian guidebook publisher in the first place has yet to be explained.

Etc. The rest of the story hammers the BeeB for multiple other gross stupidities with Taxpayer funds.

[narciso]

Omicron Persei 8, is my best guess, well with Mark Thompson moving to the Times, Turbo Timmy
because a senior statesmen at Warburg, enticing all those marks, I mean clients, you may have hit upon a theme, TM.

[Jeff Dobbs]

You've undoubtedly seen references to and perhaps even images of the use of Inigo Montoya reacting to Obama and the word "affordable".

I haven't seen a video of that idea yet, so I set out to do it myself, a video that has Obama saying the word "affordable" a good many times and then Inigo coming on screen with his trademark phrase.

Alas, I don't have the attention span self-control (on topic!?!!?) to see it through.

That and the idea that all that effort would be seen by a vast dozens of people...

[henry]

Um, sounds like the BeeB has poor impulse control. It should stop making any decisions at all as Baysean analysis shows it incapable of doing so without harm to itself.

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

Yes the Skins are getting slattered. So are the Browns; I don't know what type of plays Norval has designed but Jason Candle seems to always be throwing into triple coverage. Or Josh Gordon makes a half assed effort for the ball.

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

When Gordon makes an effort, touchdowns happen

[Miss Marple]

According to one source on the radio, people who left Soldiers Field to shelter in their cars are not being allowed back into the stadium for the restart of the game.

I am sure mayhem will soon follow.

[James D.]

Speaking of slattered...serious question, what is the deal with the Jets?

Beat the 7-2 Patriots. Next week?
Lose by 40 to the Bengals. Then?
Beat the 7-2 Saints. And today?
Down 34-7 to the 3-7 Buffalo Bills.

I guess Goodell really has managed to achieve parity. Or maybe parody...

[narciso]

Jacobsen seems to have come upon a similar theme;

http://legalinsurrection.com/2013/11/sunday-morning-open-2/

[Jack is Back!]

Finally, with reluctuance:

Hail to the Redskins,
Hail Victory
Braves on the Warpath
Fight for old DC.

63 yd. pass to the fullback Darnell Young (sp?)

[Jane-Rebel Alliance1]

When I read the article a notice came up that it was the 5th of 10 free articles I've read in the NY Times this month. I was so ashamed I couldn't finish.

[AliceH]

I, too, would appreciate someone just telling me what the Bayesian flaw is.

I do see a flaw in that all the "rewards" selections were measured on how long one waited, without anyone bothering to say what one was being rewarding FOR. Waiting in and of itself is not a "reward worthy" act.

[Gmax]

One more tidbit for the Michigan Senate contest. Who is announced Democrat candidate for Levin's seat? Well that would be Rep Gary Peters. And when you look at the names of the 39 Democrats who voted for Upton, you will find one Gary Peters. Sound like a confident Democrat in a blue state to you? LOL

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

Miss Marple, how is the weather your way? My sister in law in Highland had a tree knocked over but her house is ok.

Is there a worse human being than Roger Goodell?

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

The Jets are a reflection of their mentally ill head coach. Plus they think they can deal effectively with head cases like Brainless Edwards.

[narciso]

Speaking of slattering, apparently that is what the Eye Doctor is doing to the Syrian rebels,
'I don't bluff' really that doesn't seem that way.

[daddy]

You guys have probably already covered this, (since I haven't started catch-up), but its worth a mention that there is a 48 paragraph story on the front page of our Lefty ADN (Anchorage Daily News) titled:
HealthCare.gov lead developer hired many who worked at troubled tech company

In those 48 paragraphs there is zero mention of Democrats, or any mention of any promises of any kind concerning ObamaCare. It has one and only one mention of Obama (paragraph 10):

Earl Devaney, who chaired the board that oversaw President Barack Obama's economic stimulus program, praised CGI Federal's 2009 work on a website that collected information about how recipients used the federal money. "The system worked when it was supposed to work," Devaney said.

That's it. Anyone reading the story would come away actually knowing that CGI is incompetent, but they would have no idea whatever that Obama or any Dem is incompetent or complicit, nor that Michelle and Barack had any connection to anyone at CGI, or that there was any hint of cronyism.

I can't tell who produces the story (AP, McClatchy, etc) but whoever is doing it is working their butts off to make sure that readers have no idea whatever that the entire debacle is in any way related to the Dem's or to Obama.

[James D.]

Is there a worse human being than Roger Goodell?

Yes, CH. I can give you a list, if you've got a White House staff directory handy...

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

I think pudgy Rog would fit in well with Gaylord's band of idiots. We know he hates Rush, for starters.

[daddy]

I see from googling the authors names that the story is from the Washington Post. Well, that explains it. Never mind:)

[Beasts of England]

Capt. Hate@3:44 - I nominate Gaylord Focker.

[Jack is Back!]

daddy,

Covered up thread. They bought AMS 10 years ago not recently. They have had plenty of time to buy into the CGI culture.

Sorry,

Hail to the Redskins
Hail Victory
Braves on the Warpath
Fight for old DC.

Believe it or not but it is now a one score game in Philly. Time for more cheese on that steak, Chip.

[jimmyk on iPad]

I keep having images of John Belushi and the Killer Bees watching the Steelers today.

[Jack is Back!]

Before I was interrupted by that kid from Baylor not taking no for an answer, I mean't to add that the CGI culture may be more corrupting and lazy then the AMS one.

It should be against the law that any Federal contractor have an office within 2,000 miles of DC. Project offices, okay. Division or HQ offices, no! Anyone who has driven the Dulles toll road or I-70 in Maryland know what I am talking about. We call them "beltway bandits".

[AliceH]

Hello?

Baysian Flaw? Anyone? No?

Too bad :(

[Jack is Back!]

AliceH,

From my read there is a problem with prior distribution of the analysis. Did you know it is how spam filters are desgined and in some ways the 404 Care website.

The kid from Baylor not Bayesia is on the march. Perhaps he can have Chip Kelley use a little Bayesian analysis trying to figure out "where the hell did he come from, all of sudden"?

[glass onion]

"We call them "beltway bandits"."

Like Geithner? Cast your net a little more broadly for the 'revolving-door' thievery.

[AliceH]

Thanks, JiB. Afraid that I'm still unenlightened. I don't know what Bayesian is, which might be the problem seeing the flaw, or understanding what "prior distribution of the analysis" is even referring to.

[Jack is Back!]

Once again the Pitzer Putz doesn't understand the native tongue: Beltway Bandits refers to contractors not bankers in New York.

Jerk. Always has been and always will be.

[Beasts of England]

JiB@4:05 - It's so bad that SAIC left gorgeous La Jolla beach for the monied mosquito swamp of DC. Nuts!

[narciso]

Oh schadenfreude with sprinkles;

http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2013/11/17/i-was-having-lunch-with-two-of-my-democratic-friends-and-they-are-in-a-death-spiral/

[Jack is Back!]

AliceH,

Bayesian analysis is a statistical method of observiing distribution then trying to deetermine the parameters of that distribution. Its Math and psychologists, economists and even health care web developers use it to figure out how they screwed up.

RGII intercepted in the end zone, Too little too late. Bye Bye Kyle and Mike Shanahan. Can we get someone who knows defense and how to use RGIII more effectively?

[clarice]

Short, excellent blog worth a read:http://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/2013/11/17/obama-as-ptolemy-the-fixes-wont-save-the-system/

[Miss Marple]

Captain Hate,

Right now we are watching the weather people on the local channel show us where the tornadoes are.

Right now there is a tornado 30 miles south in Columbus and 25 miles north in Noblesville.

Pretty scary weather. I am keeping TV on and periodically looking out my office window which faces west.

[daddy]

...and daddy losing Darwin in the toilet.

Marlene,

To wrap up "the Darwin in the Toilet" bit, allow me to refer you to this exciting discovery story from a few years back:
Rare Darwin Book Found in Toilet

A first edition of Charles Darwin's seminal "The Origin of Species" will be sold this week after it was found in a family's toilet in southern Britain, an auction house said Sunday...

The book, about 1,250 copies of which were first printed, is expected to fetch 60,000 pounds (66,000 euros, 99,000 dollars).

Christie's said the son-in-law of the current owners was at an exhibition on Darwin and spotted a picture of the spine of the work.

He realized the book in the toilet (the family's guest lavatory) was something special, matching the binding of the work in the picture.

A later story tells us that the book later sold at Christie's for $170,000. (We should all be so lucky:)

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

I hope you stay safe, Miss Marple. It's pretty ugly out there.

[Jack is Back!]

MM and CH,

Aren't you all experiencing the warm front in November meeting the cold front coming down from Canada? Those images from Chicago were scary if you are sitting out in the open at Soldier's Field.

[Woody]

I fail to see what letting someone screw with me for 15 cent increments has to do with my impulse control.

[henry]

Since those 15 cent increments were paid for by taxes (the source of grant money), the subjects showed extraordinary impulse control in resisting the impulse to throttle the experimenters.

[Jack is Back!]

henry,

BTW, one of the better high paying jobs out there is Grant Writers. I have a friend who is paid as a percentage and owns a Cessna Citation as a result:)

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

Yes, JiB; it has been warm the last two days and that only lasts so long.

[Porchlight]

I would like to say a huge thank you to Jane for posting this Clarence Thomas link in the last thread. I'm sure I wouldn't have had a chance to see it otherwise.

http://abovethelaw.com/2013/11/justice-clarence-thomas-speaks-and-oh-what-a-speech/

Didn't bgates refer to him as "the best one?" What a joy to read.

[henry]

CH, the back end cold front is hitting now. Rain plus 45 mph winds. The front pushed the second clump of storms south to Chicago this morning.

[Miss Marple]

Thanks, Captain Hate!

We are being careful, and we do have a basement. (Whether we can get the dogs to follow us is another story.)

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

henry, the forecasts aren't calling for bitter cold, just a lot of wind

[Jack is Back!]

Clarence Thomas is the Calvin Coolidge of the SCOTUS. A great man doing a job for a great man. His biography is one of the most wonderful reads you can find these days. No wonder they had to find a way to destroy him. He is the left's worst nightmare.

[Marlene]

LOL,daddy. Well,hubby and I will need an Opera for Dummies book. Our future son-in-law is a professional opera and musical theatre performer. He is an adjunct at AU teaching voice and is currently in rehearsals for a production. rse,has the DIVA thought about schools yet? Future son-in-law went to Northwestern for undergrad and Manhattan School of Music for grad school. He has suspended his doctorate at Maryland for the time being. His plan is to set up a studio and give private voice lessons.

[Account Deleted]

"Bayesians will spot a minor flaw in this fascinating piece about the psychology of impulse management."

In both cases, we need to find a way to resolve the uncertainty of time.

Where's the prize window? I'm inna hurry.

[AliceH]

Ah ha! Thank you again, JiB. Maybe a little light coming in now...

Would the B. flaw be something to do with credible intervals?

Regardless, I'm w/ woody and henry - those observed scenarios were not measuring gratification/reward impulse control.

[Danube on iPad]

Ledeen at Clarice's link illustrates beautifully the point I have been struggling to make for the past couple of years.

[Porchlight]

So do I have this right, rse's daughter and Marlene's SIL are both opera singers? That is marvelous.

[Jane-Rebel Alliance1]

I would like to say a huge thank you to Jane for posting this Clarence Thomas link in the last thread.

Porch,

Was it you (or CC) who many years ago told me to read his book? It made such a gigantic impression on me, I am for ever grateful.

[Marlene]

Yes,Porch.Future son-in-law.

[rse]

Yes Marlene-she has been going over the entrance requirements for Juilliard and her voice teacher says she must go somewhere that will also let her pursue an academic major so she checked into tht school north of Harlem too.

She memorized a German aria for last summer's recital that her teacher said could hardly have been more difficult. She has 5 dance classes, piano, and now a Shakespeare drama ensemble she was selected for to get the whole package. I really cannot travel much to speak until she gets her driver's license.

I just drive her to all her lessons and keep writing checks every month. She does try to teach her friends to read music so they can make it through all state auditions. That becomes the no-go apparently at a certain point in high school.

[clarice]

reality is a bitch, ain't it, DoT--even to lightbringers.It's why I'd rather eat nails than spen time with neurotics.

[Marlene]

rse,future son-in-law depends on parents like you to write those checks! :)

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

Copernicus using epicycles to explain why the planets weren't where they were supposed to be reminds me of the cockamamie things the warmists come up with when real data differs from their lunatic models. Except Copernicus was more intelligent than all of those frauds and surely would've considered them charlatans.

[Porchlight]

Jane, it was me. Things you had written about working hard and not owing anyone anything made me think of you when I was reading the book. You are welcome - I'm so glad you enjoyed it.

[Jack is Back!]

rse,

May I recommend The Conservatory of Music at the University of Cincinnati. Amy Johnson (MFA Manhattan) is there and she is one of the great sopranos. Plus you can major in voice and minor in industrial machine design:)

[glass onion]

"Clarence Thomas is the Calvin Coolidge of the SCOTUS"

Althousezeimers...

[Jack is Back!]

Dana,

Give it a break. You need better sweatshirts and comments.

[Porchlight]

So great about the JOM family opera singers. I am a novice but I can say with confidence I didn't really "get it" until I saw a production live. It's a theatrical music form so I guess that makes sense.

[Jane-Rebel Alliance1]

Yeah I remember Porch, it was one of the most flattering things anyone has ever said to me. Thank you again.

[glass onion]

". You need better sweatshirts and comments."

Thanks for the encouragement. Takes a lot of sweat for comments.

[Jack is Back!]

Whoa, Nellie: Woodward: Obamacare not Watergate but iti is going to get worse

yeah, everyday, something new, like the marriage penalty. Wait til they get to the death panels and subsidized abortiions on demand.

[glass onion]

Oh, NOW Woodward has some gravitas. :)

[Miss Marple]

Really bad damage in Lebanon and Kokomo, Indiana, but nothing compared to some towns in Illinois, which look like rubble.

Storms are moving into Ohio, so be safe Captain Hate and all of you Ohio people!

[Danube on iPad]

"Is there a worse human being than Roger Goodell?"

Barack Obama
Ezekiel Emanuel
Alan Colmes
Rahm Emanuel
Hillary Clinton
Ryan Braun
Alex Rodruguez
Dick Durbin
Harry Reid
Anthony Weiner
Chuck Schumer
Charlie Crist
Lincoln Chafee
Paul Begala
Jon Huntsman
Eric Holder
Valerie Jarrett
Debbie W-S
Eed Schultz
Jane Fonda
Oprah Winfrey
Rosie O'Donnell
Roseanne Barr

Just getting started....
David Brock
E.J. Dionne
Paul Krugman

[Extraneus]

Their panic started after another of their heroes' ludicrously ironic comment about keeping vows, and now Woodward piles on.

Paging Orville Redenbacher.

[Barack Obama]

"Storms are moving into Ohio"

That's Oiho.

[Jack is Back!]

Ex,

It gets better: A Devastating poll on Obama and ObamaCare

Includes analysis by Barone.

[Thomas Collins]

OK, TM and Rick, I give up. I don't see it as a minor flaw under a Bayesisn framework. I don't see a serious attempt in the article to measure prior and posterior distributions. Perhaps the NY Times adopts the classical method?

[Extraneus]

From the Barone link:

It says it will provide subsidies for those buying insurance through the federal health care exchanges in 36 states — even though the legislation nowhere authorizes that.

Wouldn't Congress have grounds to sue to President if he does that with our money?

[rse]

marlene-I am so not a stage mom but when she asked for a voice teacher I found the right one. She did opera and has a friend who still does who worked with the Diva when she came to visit last year. I do not know music and maybe you future sil can explain but that kind of voice is structural apparently.

The teacher said only God can create pipes like that. Usually I only hear her snarling at me and me snarling right back.

[daddy]

Somebody above mentioned an Opera thread. It may have been this one.

3 years back in Cologne I sat at a table with a Dusseldorf Opera singer named Maria Radner, who apparently is now doing quite well since there's now a ton of Youtube vid's of her wailing away at Wagner etc, and there didn't used to be.

Here was my beer drinking buddy:

She was really cute and very much fun to talk with. If anyone cares, here was my post and the thread, tho' the links I had then to her singing Wagner are inop:
------------------------------------
Speaking of plucky young ladies, I pounded beers this evening with a plucky Dusseldorfian Opera singer in Cologne.

There I was, minding my own business reading at a table in some crowded beerhall, when in come 2 Deutsch boys needing a place to sit. I offer them chairs and immediately they start dumping on Sarah Palin. Pair of Socialists; opinionated, fervent, woefully uninformed, but the beer was so darn good that I enjoyed providing an education over rollicking bar-talk. Not bad boys, just stupid.

But then enters their friends; a non-political guy and a pleasantly plump brown haired gal with a good smile and decent English. After blabbing a bit I find she is some fairly well know Opera gal that sings Wagner. I pulled out the old Twain line, "Wagner's music is not as bad as it sounds", and got a very honest laugh out of that from the bunch. (They had never heard it!). Then did the explanation of the Yogi Berra comment, "It ain't over till the fat lady sings", and somehow made it complementary enough of her that she suggested a round of schnappes for the bunch of us which I figure is a good sign from an Opera gal. Then in between getting the boys to dump on the East Germans and Communism, then the Greeks, the Spaniards, the Italians, the Irish, and everybody else in the EU, plus the Islam's, figured I had made good headway on the "Ain't Socialism great" political argument, so switched to discussion of "What's Opera Doc?" by Bugs Bunny. Another Home Run!

Anyhow, if you're ever in Cologne and need to get past second base with a Bellowing Valkyrie, that's how you do it.

So here's my Schnappes drinking partner from this evening, and tho' I dislike Opera, here she is banging out some tune at a performance just 2 nights back. (She's the one with the chair.)
Anyone know what she's singing about BTW?

Posted by: daddy | November 21, 2010 at 09:11 PM
-----------------------------------

Here's the JOM link Fair Enough Nov 21, 2010

That thread sparked a fun bunch of comments on Opera.

Off with the dogs. Bye.

[Jeff Dobbs]

"now there are unintended effects of this that were foreseen at the time that you couldn't know the impact of it."
--stuff Nancy Pelosi said

Turns out we didn't have to pass the bill to find out what was in the bill. That much was forseen. We needed to pass the bill to find out the impact of the shit hitting the fan.

[clarice]

I believe there is a suit on including subsidies in state exchanges in defiance of the language of the Act.