Krugman Correction Watch

In an epic Princeton v. Harvard battle, Greg Mankiw comes out on top of Paul Krugman.

Here is the Krugman lead from his Jan 29 column:

Rising inequality has obvious economic costs: stagnant wages despite rising productivity, rising debt that makes us more vulnerable to financial crisis. It also has big social and human costs. There is, for example, strong evidence that high inequality leads to worse health and higher mortality.

High inequality leads to higher mortality? Prof. Mankiw encourages everyone (especially Prof. Krugman) to read the link Krugman provided, which includes this punchline:

There are now also a large number of individual level studies exploring the health consequences of ambient income inequality and none of these provide any convincing evidence that inequality is a health hazard. Indeed, the only robust correlations appear to be those among U.S. cities and states (discussed above) which, as we have seen, vanish once we control for racial composition.

We know Prof. Krugman will want to address this.

And while we wait, we hope he will pick up on the opportunity to clarify, amply and correct his blog comments following the Republican response to the State of the Union. In the course of noting a possible exaggeration by Ms. McMorris-Rodgers he said this about ObamaCare:

I’d be interested, by the way, to know the details about the constituent described in the official GOP response, who supposedly faced a $700 a month rise in premiums. What kind of plan did she have? Did that number include subsidies? The ACA is supposed to keep health costs to 8 percent of income, so the only way you could get numbers like that is if the individual (a) had a really bare-bones policy offering hardly any protection and (b) has an income well over $100,000.

The details of the constituent cited are now out.  and Ms. McMorris-Rodgers should have been talking about a premium spike of $500/month, not $700.

Meanwhile, Krugman might want to keep in mind that subsidies disappear at $46,000 for an "individual" and $94,200 for two adults; that is hardly "an income well over $100,000".

And of course, the subsidies are meant to bring the total premium cost down to around 8% of income; after deductibles and co-pays kick in, good luck. His statement that "The ACA is supposed to keep health costs to 8 percent of income" is misinformed or deceptive.

We are confident that Prof. Krugman will be nothing these problems with alacrity and grace, based on his recent exhortation to Bret Stephens of the WSJ:

Instead, he points to an online post he put out admitting, with a minimum of grace, that using nominal incomes was wrong.

Sorry, but that’s not what I — or, if I may speak for my employer, The New York Times — calls a correction.

What, after all, is the purpose of a correction? If you’ve misinformed your readers, the first order of business is to stop misinforming them; the second, so far as possible, to let those who already got the misinformation know that they were misinformed. So you fix the error in the online version of the article, including an acknowledgement of the error; and you put another acknowledgement of the error in a prominent place, so that those who read it the first time are alerted. In the case of Times columnists, this means an embarrassing but necessary statement at the end of your next column.

My breath is unheld.

DECLARE VICTORY AND MOVE ON: In a new post Krugman explains that he was right.

Well, now we know, and I was right: her previous plan was catastrophic coverage only, with a $10,000 deductible — and the “$700 a month more” was the most expensive option offered by her insurer. She didn’t go to the healthcare.gov website, where she could have found cheaper plans.

So this wasn’t sticker shock, at least as described. This was someone finding out that the ACA requires that you have a minimum level of insurance, and that minimalist plans are no longer allowed — and it was also Ms. Rodgers misrepresenting what had happened.

Oh, and why isn’t catastrophic coverage only allowed? For the same reason we have a coverage mandate in the first place: everyone has to be in the risk pool.

Hmm - as to that $10,000 deductible being out-of-bounds, in Covered California I can find Bronze plans with a $10,000 deductible (Anthem Bronze 60 EPO, 2 adults age 58, $927/mo). In My Blue Heaven of Connecticut, Bronze plans with a $12,600 deductible are on offer (Anthem Bronze DirectAccess w/HSA - cdeh, 2 58 yr old adults, $1181/mo.) That said, the max deductible I found in Washington was around $6,000.

I am not so sure Krugman was "right" that $10,000 is automatically a catastrophic, non-compliant plan.

 

Comments

[Ignatz]

Bearded fish in barrel, meet blogger with a gun.

[Porchlight]

Waxman to retire. Whoa.

[Truthbetold]

Clarice

Robert Mueller knew Armitage was Robert Novak's source.

Do you consider Mueller a co-conspirator?

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

I repeat-- TomM doing these Krugman fiskings is a public service.

[bgates]

rising debt that makes us more vulnerable to financial crisis

I heard that nations with stable, responsible governments — that is, governments that are willing to impose modestly higher taxes when the situation warrants it — have historically been able to live with much higher levels of debt than today’s conventional wisdom would lead you to believe.

The problem is nobody understands debt.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Indeed, the only robust correlations appear to be those among U.S. cities and states (discussed above) which, as we have seen, vanish once we control for racial composition.

::poof::

The invisible hand.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Certainly Detroit pols didn't understand debt... or maybe they did and didn't care.
When T-Bond rates double to 3-6% across the term spectrum for a $20T debt and Treasury debt service goes to $1T/year, americans will get a hard and fast education about 'debt'.

[GMax]

Richard Lindzen speaks to the British House of Commons on Climate Fraud:

“I’ve asked very frequently at universities: ‘Of the brightest people you know, how many people were studying climate [...or meteorology or oceanography...]?’ And the answer is usually ‘No one.’”

And – warming to his theme:

“You look at the credentials of some of these people [on the IPCC] and you realise that the world doesn’t have that many experts, that many ‘leading climate scientists’”.

Was Lindzen suggesting, asked Tim Yeo at this point, that scientists in the field of climate were academically inferior.

“Oh yeah,” said Lindzen. “I don’t think there’s any question that the brightest minds went into physics, math, chemistry…”

[GMax]

Kwame Kilpatrick and his predecessors all the way back to the Commie Coleman Young, were too busy with both hands inside the cookie jar to worry about a little thing like paying back bonds when due.

[GMax]

So TM what is your bet? Is Krugman just mailing it in, or does he expect that his audience is so lazy and so stupid that they wont read his link and/or wont understand the obvious. One is more graceless than the other, not that Krugman would know grace if it smacked him upside his rather large head.

[daddy]

test

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Gmax- I think Mrs Robin Krugman and grad students write these things, while Paul is off making $1500/hr + expenses.

[Jim Eagle]

WaIt until he sees the new Godzilla movie and how that stimulates the economy. I am still in favor of moving Doonesbury to the editorial pages and Krugman to the comic pages.

[chuck it]

"Meanwhile, Krugman might want to keep in mind that subsidies disappear at $46,000 for an "individual" and $94,200 for two adults; that is hardly "an income well over $100,000"."

So...subsidies good? Subsidies bad? Sounds like you want to have some cake, and keep your cake.

[Jim Eagle]

In 1956, Norman Mailer nominated Ernest Hemingway as President of the United States

"To begin with, the Democratic Party has the poorest of chances against Eisenhower, and whether it be Stevenson, Kefauver, or some other political half- worthy, the candidate’s personality would suffer from his unfortunate resemblance to a prosperous undertaker. There is no getting around it— the American people tend to vote for the candidate who gives off the impression of having experienced some pleasure in his life, and Eisenhower, whatever his passive vicissitudes, looks like he has had a good time now and again. I would submit that this is one of the few healthy aspects of our unhealthy country— it is indeed folk wisdom.

A man who has had good times has invariably also suffered (as opposed to the unfortunate number of people who have avoided pain at the expense of avoiding pleasure as well), and the mixture of pain and pleasure in a man’s experiences is likely to give him the proportion, the common sense, and the charm a president needs."

As they say - RTWT

[narciso]

Of course, the question is why didn't they;

http://www.timesofisrael.com/sharansky-if-obama-had-backed-irans-dissidents-arab-spring-might-have-been-very-different/

Stevenson seemed weened on a pickle, Dukakis was the same way,

[pagar]

"If you’ve misinformed your readers, the first order of business is to stop misinforming them; the second, so far as possible, to let those who already got the misinformation know that they were misinformed. "

Has the NYTs ever NOT misinformed their readers since the Walter Duranty era?

[Eric in Boise]

Being unwilling to read it, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the point of Krugboy's column is that nobody understands debt except HIM.

[narciso]

His point was right 'his language could have been tighter;

http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-journal-tom-perkins-was-right-2014-1?op=1

[daddy]

Just about to go to work, but earlier tonight in Osaka I found a hole in the wall local teppanyaki joint, and the house speciality was boiled pigs feet.

I had never thought about the Japanese being big pigs feet gourmets, so this was new to me. This was an aged wooden shack sort of place, with well seasoned stools and customers, so I sat down at this old wooden counter and ordered a traditional bit of chicken and beef grilled on a stick. It was excellent with nice sauces, and crumpled on top of a lettuce leaf sort of Korean style, but I noticed that most everyone was having something boiling in a huge metal pot just in front of me and it turned out to be pigs feet.

They were white, and much smaller than German Swinehocks, and no crust at all, just boiled, so finally I asked for an order and the guy fishes around in the pot for some choice chunks and plops them in a dish for me. He hands me a salt shaker, and says its okay to use my fingers instead of chopsticks.

Anyhow, I got good and greasy, and tried to see how my tablemates ate it, so that I wouldn't come off as too much of a Gaijin rookie. It was fair, not as good as swinehocks or pickled pigs feat, but tasty enough, and interesting in that it showed me another side of the Japanese. I finished up with some pork Teppanyaki with onions which was excellent and now am off to work.

Any of you guys ever had boiled pigs feet in Japan?

[Account Deleted]

Eric,

The Mankiw link is well worth reading. He eviscerates Krugman using the same study Krugman lied about in his column. The fact Krugman so obviously lies in the pap he generates to reinforce the conditioning of the average NYT peck and drooler is rather strong evidence of Krugman's ability to gauge the intellectual prowess of his intended audience.

He may be slipping but you'll never be able to tell from comments at the NYT.

[bgates]

Rick, I think Eric was talking about my link, which as he suspected he absorbed without reading.

[rich@gmu]

Can't wait for the juicebox mafia's 10 million dollar take.

[narciso]

wes we'll take it under advisement, how did that work the last timel

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/01/30/former-speaker-hastert-calls-for-immigration-overhaul/

[Jim Eagle]

The Dem Strategy:

Democrats: Cede the House to save the Senate

I hope they spend lots of money on the Senate and still lose it.

[henry]

Experimenting with twitter, this came up:

Vicki Mckenna ‏@VickiMcKenna 19m

President Obama ust called Waukesha "Wau-KETCH-uh". How can someone from CHICAGO have never heard of WAUKESHA?

Sooooooper Genius strikes again.

[Jim Eagle]

The Sunshine State

Brrrr.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

JiB-- I really think they will;

Immigration Kabuki-- House Repubs propose 4 separate Bills- 3 enforcement, 1 'probationary status' Bills while enforcement is done. House Conservatives say probation = amnesty vote no, Dems attack 'fraud' as no legalization occurs during probation. Result House passes 3 enforcementbills but not probation. Senate refuses conference committee, enforcement Bills die in early summer. In election, Dems attack repubs as hating Mexicans, repubs campaign on Dems not serious about enforcement. We'll see what voters say in Nov.

[narciso]

He's not from Chicago, 'he's from France'

http://althouse.blogspot.com/2014/01/this-is-clearly-case-of-selective.html

[rich@gmu]

daddy-

can't say I have. would be curious if it was a ethnic Korean shop?

[rich@gmu]

NK-

think that is too much wheels within wheels. I think that the GOP is beholden to business interests enough that they really think they can grant an open ended amnesty and still survive as a party. Hope I'm wrong but I'd bet on amnesty.

[rich@gmu]

JiB-

wonder which global warming model called that. yikes!!!

[Old Lurker]

How the GOP fails to understand that most of us just want them to keep the trains running and to make no new laws until after the next two elections is beyond me.

If they would just SAY that then go away, I might stay in the GOP.

[narciso]

Bery sensible;

http://www.shark-tank.com/2014/01/30/gop-rep-desantis-opts-obamacare-pays-insurance/

I think the one, in the DAT,

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

BIG business wants increased tech immigration. They get that from the Repubs; small business wants no enforcement. They won't get that from the Repubs. Where else is small business going to go? The Dems/Progs are poison to small business, will small business boycott repubs becuase they are trying to prevent hiring illegals off the books? The vote calculus on this is ambiguous, I think the Repubs will use this issue to punt and continue watching the votes in Fla, Tex Colo and Ariz.

[rich@gmu]

POLL: Palin has highest favorables among GOP primary voters...

that ought to cause a shift in the mortality rate.

Old Lurker-

but then they wouldn't be doing something. they gotta be doing something to be feeding at the trough.

and my ear is hurting today and work is in a few hours.

[Eric in Boise]

Yes, bgates, I was referring to your link. The Bearded B***ard is nothing if not predictable. I'll definitely check out the Mankiw link later when I have time.

[Jim Eagle]

narciso,

Ron DeSantis is my congressman and doing a hellva job.

Rich,

Its Okaloosa Country - Pensacola and Ft. Walton Beach area of Western Panhandle.

Looks like 2 killed as a result of icy road conditions

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

The professional repubs are trying to be around beyond the next 2 elections--they are trying to keep their jobs. That said, if they cave completely they lose their jobs this cycle. That's why I think the don't cave; I trust them to do what they believe is in their self-interest. I think the tell that this Kabuki is going on is is the AFL-CIO pig Trumpka attacking Repubs before they even release bills.

[rich@gmu]

NK-

>>>BIG business wants increased tech immigration.<<<

they want more than just tech immigration. and the tech immigration isn't needed either.

[matt]

Krugman: "If you like your propaganda, you can keep your propaganda."

[rich@gmu]

NK-

when the gop is being told by their funders that their self interest is voting amnesty?

I can see them voting for amnesty then the chamber funds the dem registration and voter drives for 2014. they'll wonder why they were betrayed.

[rich@gmu]

oh and a new thread...

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Here's the Chamber's Immigration page; the reality is 'SKILLs" immigration is their top priority. Is it needed?-- native USA tech and skilled workers would say hell no. Chamber employers OTOH would like flat wages forever. http://immigration.uschamber.com/

[rich@gmu]

NK-

IEEE had a write up-it isn't needed. half of stem graduates are in non stem fields. skilled immigration has held wages down of skilled workers more than workers in other industries. they'll called skilled everyone they amnesty this year.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Don't dispute any of that rich. My only point is that increased STEM visas is the top Chamber priority. The big employers want to hold your wages down rich, in the same way illegal immigration destroys working class wages.

[rich@gmu]

http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth

might have mushmouthed the article in my comments but the point holds. good article and links and refs at the bottom.

[narciso]

I would hold off for a while;

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/01/shock-video-clueless-college-students-want-to-study-abroad-in-benghazi/

[rich@gmu]

Yea. Thanks NK. Maybe I can adjust to a 300 sq ft apartment and no sugary soad.

[narciso]

She's sharp as a tack;

http://freebeacon.com/cbs-obamas-agenda-has-shrunk-from-grand-to-granular/

[rich@gmu]

please let it not be a gmu student...

[rich@gmu]

nyu...worried there for a minute.

[boricuafudd]

bgates, loved this line from your link

"It’s true that foreigners now hold large claims on the United States, including a "fair amount" of government debt. But every dollar’s worth of foreign claims on America is matched by 89 cents’ worth of U.S. claims on foreigners. And because foreigners "tend" to put their U.S. investments into safe, low-yield assets, America actually earns more from its assets abroad than it pays to foreign investors."

Wow!

[lyle]

I'm all for sending as many students to Benghazi as we can. It's a good start...

[Truthbetold]

Clarice

Your latest article on Plamegate concedes that P2P was right and FBI Director Robert Mueller was also involved in what you describe as a "Conspiracy to Conceal"

Clarice Feldman believes Dick Armitage is a liar, except….
http://illinoispaytoplay.com/2013/11/18/clarice-feldman-believes-dick-armitage-is-a-liar-except/

So now, by your own account, the State Dept., DoJ and FBI were all involved in the conspiracy.

Anything you would like to say about your most recent theory Clarice?

[matt]

so in other words it is putting lipstick on the pig, borica.

[Ignatz]

--Wow!-

I'm sure that makes perfect sense in Enron accounting; if the Federal government racks up trillions in debt to foreigners it's OK so long as private US corps and individuals invest abroad as some type of Enron hedge.

I guess if you begin with the assumption it all belongs to the gov anyway it does make a certain sense.

[pagar]

"trillions in debt "

US debt when Waxman was elected to the US House.

$475,059,815,731.55

http://www.polidiotic.com/?page_id=361

US Debt today!

17,340,977,500,900.00

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Democrat Waxman didn't cause it all by himself. He had help.

[Danube on iPad]

Sandra Fluke considering running for Waxman's seat.

[Jane-Rebel Alliance1]

She has almost as much real life experience as Obama. Why isn't she running for president.