Send Better Phony Stats (Pre-K Edition)

Nick Kristof offers a perfectly plausible defense of pre-K programs but can't resist the allure of phony statistics:

We can invest in preschool today (about $8,000 per child per year), or in juvenile detention tomorrow (around $90,000 per child per year).

That would be compelling if every child eligible for one year of pre-K was otherwise sure to spend one year in juvenile detention.

It would be a financial break-even if 9% of the kids eligible for pre-K would otherwise average one year in juvenile detention.

So what are the numbers? We glean this from the Children's Defense Fund:

On any given day, approximately 81,000 children (263 of every 100,000 youths ages 10 through the state’s upper age of origi¬nal juvenile court jurisdiction in the general population) are held in a juvenile justice residential placement. Additionally, 7,560 children are held in adult jails and 1,790 in adult prisons.

If my math is holding up that sums to roughly 300 kids per 100,000 youths "of the general population", or 0.3%. if this pre-K expansion targeted some subset of youths, e.g, the bottom 20% by income, and if all the detainees came from that subset, then roughly 1.5% of the targeted sub-group would end up in detention.

That is a long way from 9% noted above (And we are assuming that none of the targeted kids eventually end up in detention anyway. Realistic?) As to the duration of the detention, well, it would need to average six years for Mr. Kristof's green-eyeshade argument to make sense.

And as to how helpful this comparison might be, the CDF also tells us this:

With nearly one-half (48 percent) of youths in the juvenile justice system functioning below the grade level appropriate for their age and 30 percent reporting a learning disability diagnosis, compared to 28 and five percent of students in the general population, respectively, children in the juvenile justice system have critical learning needs that must be addressed if they are to get on a more positive track forward.

The kids who end up in detention are likely to have learning issues that are unmitigated by pre-K programs, although early detection might be helpful.

This doesn't mean that expanded pre-K programs are a bad idea. But it does suggest that there is no educational equivalent of the Laffer Curve; pretending these programs can pay for themselves in reduced detention costs is unrealistic.

Comments

[narciso]

Of course, Kristof doesn't concern himself with cultural drivers, or the lack of an effective classroom discipline template, why should he?

[matt]

Those numbers are bogus. $9,000 for pre-K? Where? Manhattan? and $90K for juvie?

I would suggest a Scared Straight program for the pre-K's to make sure they don't go to juvie.

Liberalism. Makin' sh*t up since 1965.

[Jeff Dobbs]

J is pre-K

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Kristof says for inner city kids it's either Pre-K or prison...hmmm.... RACIST!!

I swear we've gone through a time warp and it's John Lindsey and Henry Fonda talking-- it's 1965 all over again. Sad.

[clarice]

When you are cozying favor with public employee unions, statistics don't count and money's no object.
You can bet your bottom dollar, bubble head NYT readers will be citing this article to each other for weeks without bothering, as TM has, to DO THE MATH..

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Matt-- in NYC, pre-K pro forma VARIABLE costs are 1 Teacher ($108,000 average salary/benes) PLUS 1 Teacher's Aid ($46,000 salary/benes) $154,000, for 18 averag Pre-K kids = $9,000 SCHOOL YEAR (9 months). This does not include fixed costs such as bod interest, heating costs, supplies, metal detectors etc etc. NYC has shite schools... BUT they are very expensive!!!!

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

bond interest.

[Comanche Voter]

Reminds me of the old saying that "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure".

That's just SOP for the Obamabot crowd.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Clarice-- 'cozy favor' with the unions? The UFT, City Worker unions, and the SEIU 1199 Hospital Workers OWN Warren Wilhelm, lock stock and barrell. They will use him to rape the City, before the bottom falls out by 2015. The raping and pillaging will make Carlos Slim's loan terms to the Sultzbergers seem benign.

[daddy]

...With nearly one-half (48 percent) of youths in the juvenile justice system functioning below the grade level appropriate for their age and 30 percent reporting a learning disability diagnosis...

TM,

I fail to see a problem. I think they should all be able to get a degree in African Studies from UNC Chapel Hill as long as they can tackle and dunk.

[Ignatz]

How many times do even the lefty academics have to study Head Start, et al and conclude they make no permanent difference before this idea dies?

It doesn't die because of course it has nothing to do with improving young occiputs or reforming miscreants before a life of crime ensues. It's about more money for them and less for us and about immersing those young occiputs in cradle to grave state control.
I'd add that this attempted grab of our children is only enabled by the existence of near universal public education but even conservatives seem to believe Big Brother is the indispensable teacher for our twerps.

[daddy]

Clarice,

My neighbor the Tax guy banks at Wells Fargo, but he says he hates it.

I ask him why he keeps an account there and he tells me because the prettiest girl in town works behind the counter, so he always shuffles around pretending to do paperwork, until he sees that her line is clear and he can walk up and be her customer:)

I haven't seen her yet, but I've been thinking that I need to stop by one of these days and go in and ask about starting up an account with Wells Fargo her:)

[Threadkiller]

"Is National Review doomed?"

http://m.theweek.com/article.php?id=255756

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Pre-K daze: my daughter's first socializing pre-K experience was as a 2yo(?) at the local YMCA. 9 kids total, 7 of the others were all 1st born. So naturally, they would just walk over to other kids and grab the toys they were playing with. My daughter? she would treat those 1st borns like she did her older brother-- shove them to the ground and take the toy back. This did not go over well with the YMCA warden. Nothing's changed with her in 18 years.

[centralcal]

Yay! Yay! Yay!

Chad Pergram ‏@ChadPergram 1m

Rep Henry Waxman (D-CA) retiring. Elected in the mid-1970s. Close ally of Pelosi. One of the architects of the Affordable Care Act.

[I R A Darth Aggie]

Geez, don't bring math into an emotional debate. That's like a sea gull and a crow picking on papal doves...

[Bruce]

If you rented the inmates out for day labor, it would cost even less.

[Old Lurker]

I don't know about pre-k, but K in the best schools in DC, NY & Boston exceed $30,000 per year...

[Frau KITA]

"...unions, and the SEIU 1199 Hospital Workers OWN Warren Wilhelm..."

NK, let's just call him Kaiser Wilhelm.

The pre-school push is government theft and control. Just as in socialist commie countries, the children belong to the state and must be rounded up as infants to be indoctrinated. Eliminate the parental factor at all costs.
Germans used to be horrified by photos of the East German pre-schoolers riding in wagons pulled by socialist nannies. Now they have been led to believe that a parent is selfish to deny a child the " group experience" of the Kindertagesstätte. My grand nephew is being told by the pediatrician to place his two year old right away. The German plan requires those who have enough money to pay in order to have others pay less or nothing.
Sound like a plan coming to a town near you?

[Ignatz]

--We can invest in preschool today...--

I know this has been covered a thousand times but is there any government spending that isn't an "investment"?

This is an investment in exactly the same was as Popeye invested in Whimpy's hamburger.
Well actually Popeye got a better deal because at least if Whimpy had a hamburger he shut up for awhile, unlike the Kristoffs of the world.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Speaking of inmates. Our friend in ChiTown alerts that Holder plans to 'commute' drug dealer sentences. Great fund raiser and vote pool for Dems. I swear it's 1965 again and Ramsay Clark is AG... OK a corrupt Ramsey Clark.

[Ignatz]

the same wa*y* as Popeye

[daddy]

No big surprise here:

Shell cancels 2014 drilling in Alaska's Arctic waters

Sen. Lisa Murkowski: “I am disappointed that Shell will not be able to move forward with exploration this summer, but am not surprised given the 9th Circuit’s decision and the administration’s failure to provide regulatory and permitting certainty for oil development in the Arctic.. We can’t expect Shell to continue to spend billions of dollars on this project when the rules keep changing."

Sen. Mark Begich: blasted what he called "judicial overreach" and also said he would talk to Interior Secretary Sally Jewell on Thursday, urging her to do everything possible to address the concerns the court outlined in its decision.

So who voted for Sally Jewell as Interior Secretary?

Mark Begich, and Lisa Murkowski:

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), the top Republican on the Senate’s energy committee, said she was hopeful that Jewell would work with all sides in various battles over Interior policy. Murkowski said that the most important role of the Interior Secretary is being a “landlord” since Interior owns a large portion of U.S. land.

“I think we recognize as westerners that this is a position that has great meaning to our states, so we pay attention to who is the Secretary of Interior,” Murkowski said. “Really the most prominent role is being a landlord … and we need to trust our landlord.”

[Ignatz]

Scarlett Johannson resigns from OxenFam. Good for her refusing to bow to the usual lefty "tolerance" of differences.
She's still a pinko but at least she has some principles which rise above pleasing Napolean the Pig.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Principles + that big SodaStream check.

[clarice]

Lately, I cannpt get the JOM pp to refresh (or reload).

[Ignatz]

She is Jewish and so I'll give her the benefit of the doubt and assume loyalty to an Israeli company had more to do with it than dough.

[Ignatz]

--Lately, I cannpt get the JOM pp to refresh (or reload).-

Me too, for some time now.
Sometimes it will refresh on the last comment; sometimes only on the tool bar. Sometimes I have to close the window and start over altogether, although that seems to have gotten better the last couple of weeks.

[narciso]

a better picture;

http://legalinsurrection.com/2014/01/bds-takes-oxfam-down-with-it-as-scarlett-johansson-resigns/

meanwhile, why did we sign on to New Start if Volodya won't abide by it.

[GMax]

Waxman is a tell, the House is a bridge too far for Democrats. He wont be the last, here is Colin Peterson of Minnesoda indicating he is thinking about his future too:

I haven’t decided. I am going to take some time,” Peterson said. “I have been in limbo here, in farm bill hell for three years and it affects you.”

If he doesn’t run, Peterson’s departure would hand Republicans another top pickup opportunity in his Republican-leaning northwestern Minnesota that’s been heavily targeted by the GOP.
Peterson said he will take about three weeks to “get back to normal” before he makes a decision on whether to seek a 13th term.

“Then I have to do my regular process: get the campaign together, figure out what I am going to run on, all the different things that need to be done,” he said. “Probably by the first of March I’ll know. At this point I am raising money. I’m doing all that but I’m going to do a gut check.”

In other words, the checks are not exactly rolling in, and if that don't change soon, I am going to retire and become a lobbyist. AND keep the balance in the campaign account of course.

[daddy]

I saw the other day that Governor Chris Christie said schools now should be feeding kids dinner, along with feeding them breakfast and lunch.

So the best of all possible worlds I suppose for the Kristof's and Christies, is kids being dropped off at Govt schools from Pre-school through 12th Grade, fed breakfast, lunch and dinner, then shipped off to college on Govt Loans.

Who the hell even needs parents in that equation?

[GMax]

Interesting, big Sodastream endorsement checks versus being on a board with a bunch of narcisstict lefties telling each other the good they are doing ( while condemning those JOOOOOOOS ) and the endorsement check wins! I would guess Scarlet is brighter than she looks...

[Extraneus]

Is this a clever ruse to get us to support it?

AFL-CIO chief: The new Republican immigration plan is unacceptable

“It means they would never get citizenship, never get a green card,” Trumka said during an hour-long interview in his office overlooking the White House. “It’s a joke. It’s a hoax, is what it is. It’s like fool’s gold.”…

“Without citizenship, it’s a nonstarter because you can’t fix a broken immigration system and create a vast class of millions of people living in the community and working in our workplaces without citizenship. You can’t do that. They have no rights,” Trumka said. “The labor unions are united. Our price of admission is citizenship. Republicans aren’t talking seriously until they start talking about citizenship, and that means a direct route to green cards and a real path to citizenship.”

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Lately, I cannpt get the JOM pp to refresh (or reload).

I had that too awhile back. It just went away....so I don't have any advice. Who knows what is going on with typepad...

[daddy]

Lately, I cannpt get the JOM pp to refresh (or reload).

Me neither, Clarice,

That little wheel up in the header just keeps spinning round like a roulette wheel but never stops.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Dinner in Camden schools? FYI daddy -- Camden NJ Schools = prison, so you gotta feed the inmates 3 squares.

[GMax]

So the best of all possible worlds I suppose for the Kristof's and Christies, is kids being dropped off at Govt schools from Pre-school through 12th Grade

I hear they had a pilot program of this in Atlanta recently. Even had the kids sleeping over at the school! Grin

[rse]

For those of you unaware the creator of the idea of HeadStart, Benjamin Bloom, was also the creator of the concept of outcomes based education. During the Cold War he set up curriculum institutes in Sweden with UNESCO funding to train teachers to push inquiry learning instead of knowledge transmission.

They have now added social and emotional learning explicitly to Head Start. There is also a lovely program that is being started in preschool called Tools of the Mind based on Vygotsky's work.

There's no excuse for Delta to be showing about 75% of its arrivals cancelled at airport while still showing departing flights as on time. I came home after they cancelled flights. One man had been trying to get home to St Louis for days and he started raving about being a single parent with kids at home.

It was 11 degrees when I stood waiting for marta this morning. Nippy for a southern girl.

[centralcal]

Sean Spicer ‏@seanspicer 4m

RNC Chairman Calls on Conservative Commentators to Boycott MSNBC over Race Tweet http://shar.es/UL6pw via @BreitbartConvo @reince

[centralcal]

I had the JOM refresh problem around the same time Janet did. Lasted for a day or two and then just stopped doing whatever it was doing.

[narciso]

I figured as much, rse, but you need to have the program, to know the players.

[Extraneus]

“Then I have to do my regular process: get the campaign together, figure out what I am going to run on..."

Must be a moderate.

[Porchlight]

Repubs can totally take Peterson's seat this year. I assume he's a yes to retire or he wouldn't have said anything.

[Porchlight]

“Then I have to do my regular process: get the campaign together, figure out what I am going to run on..."

If you don't have that down in January of an election year, and you're a member of the majority party, sounds like you're kinda done.

[Old Lurker]

"Lately, I cannot get the JOM pp to refresh (or reload)."

Oh the blue pill jokes just write themselves.

[Truthbetold]

Clarice

Robert Mueller knew Armitage was Robert Novak's source.

Do you consider Mueller a co-conspirator?

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

My guess is that net Repub gains in House and Senate will be about the same # 7-8.
A nice part of the Dems giving up on the House is that the Repubs don't have to spend money protecting House seats. there will be hugely expensive Senate races this year.

[Jim Eagle]

The CEO of Soda Stream (we are owners) Birnbaum is quoted over at Haaretz, that the plant on the West Bank settlement is a "pain in the ass".

In Re: V-PReK. There is a huge competition in Florida between various schools, especially private christian/catholic schools for running V-PreK. State compensation is like $400-500 a month per student which comes out to like $4,500 a year. Teachers have to qualified and certified and you need a certified Administrator. Our school runs a 1/2 day and a full day operation. Its basically revenue neutral for us since the fees are spent on salaries, bennies, supplies and infrastructure.

But we have over 50 kids and are able each year to retain 50% for our Pre-K and onward at full tuition. We don't have a lot strings from the State and even take our little ones to the school mass on Wednesdays. Don't know how the other programs at other schools do but ours are more than reading nursery rhymes and naps. We even introduce the little tykes to computers.

[Account Deleted]

Flight from Blue Hell has been compounded by a drop in births (a quite legitimate reaction to prog control). The urgency for the extension of the indoctrination/conditioning process to Pre-K is driven by protection of the current Educrat Thief's Guild as well as desire to expand the process. It's a bookend to the Thief's Guild driving the average time required to achieve a BArista Moron Credential from four to six years.

[Old Lurker]

Rick, how many of the 52M aborted babies since RvW might have been in Blue Hells? Imagine.

[Extraneus]

How many would be Democrats right now?

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

OL/RickB-- I saw the stat recently, in 2012 something like 60% of NYC prgnancies ended in abortion. That's my recollection.

[Marlene]

The parents just aren't involved in what is going on in the schools.When the daughter was in school,every class had a room mother,parent volunteers and an active PTO. Maybe a small town makes a difference.
My little wheel keeps spinning also,I thought it was my computer.

[narciso]

Of course they were mostly selected and trained by our friends in Riyadh and Doha;

www.wnd.com%2F2014%2F01%2Fintel-chief-7000-jihadists-fighting-in-syria%2F

[narciso]

Here's the link;

http://www.wnd.com/2014/01/intel-chief-7000-jihadists-fighting-in-syria/

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Not quite as horrific as I recalled, NYC rate = 40% of 'viable' pregnancies end in abortion: http://www.lifenews.com/2013/03/07/new-york-city-40-of-all-pregnancies-still-end-in-abortion/

[Account Deleted]

OL,

Progressive mass murderers working from the static 'fixed pie' model are now pushing ProleCull due to their "a negative plus a negative equals a positive" axiom. Hence the 'need' for expanded immigration in order to provide cheap consumers to maintain equilibrium.

We should never, ever, expect more than mass murder and bankruptcy from progressive peck and drool conditioning. To expect more is to completely ignore history.

[**tbt_stalker_bot**]

"She is Jewish and so I'll give her the benefit of the doubt..."

Oh no...

TBT_Stalker_Bot:

whirrr whirrr click
Clarice do you consider Scarlett Johannson a co-conspirator with Mueller to out Novak and Armitage?

whirrr whirrr click
Clarice did you disclose your friendship with Perle, Feith, Scarlett Johannson, Wolfowitz, and John Doe.

whirrr whirrr click
Clarice did you disclose you gave John Doe cookies with his cup of hot chocolate

whirrr whirrr click
Clarice have you ever been in a cockpit?

whirrr whirrr click
Clarice have you ever been in a turkish bath?

[narciso]

chocolate rations being distributed efficiently

http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/01/30/3902637/4th-quarter-home-sales-flat-prices.html

[Jane-Rebel Alliance1]

Clarice,

When I can't refresh I open it in a new tab, and it goes to the right place on Firefox.

[boricuafudd]

Let's not forget the class envy part in the whole pre-K discussion. After all, why should the rich be able to send their kids to private pre-K on their dime and others not.

We know that this is the only way that they stay on top; they have a unfair advantage and a "head" start.

[jimmyk]

I'm with Iggy on ScarJo--she hardly needs the paycheck, compared to the big lift she'd get in lefty circles from joining in the condemnation of whatever it is the left seems to find condemnable in a Sodastream factory. So give her a little credit. Plus she's kinda cute.

[Frau die Gedanken sind Frei]

Spengler on Seeger's death:

I was not just a Pete Seeger fan, but a to-the-hammer-born, born-and-bred cradle fan of Pete Seeger. With those credentials, permit me to take note of his passing with the observation that he was a fraud, a phony, a poseur, an imposter. The notion of folk music he espoused was a put-on from beginning to end.

[Ignatz]

I believe the group Cracker put it best Frau;
What the world needs now is another folk singer, like I need a hole in my head.

[Truthbetold]

Clarice

Your latest article on Plamegate concedes that P2P was right and FBI Director Robert Mueller was also involved in what you describe as a "Conspiracy to Conceal"

Clarice Feldman believes Dick Armitage is a liar, except….
http://illinoispaytoplay.com/2013/11/18/clarice-feldman-believes-dick-armitage-is-a-liar-except/

So now, by your own account, the State Dept., DoJ and FBI were all involved in the conspiracy.

Anything you would like to say about your most recent theory Clarice?