They Lost Me With 'Hello'

Glenn links to Stacy Mccain, who is fired up about this new Harvard/Berkekey study on income inequality and intergenerational economic mobility. I will revert to Mr. McCain momentarily but first let me deplore the lead sentence to the NBER working paper:

The United States is often hailed as the "land of opportunity," a society in which a child's chances of success depend little on her family background.

Says who? This is certainly a convenient definition for a team of economists who are embarking on a measurement of outcomes and hoping to pass it off as a measure of opportunity, but who really believes that parents have no influence on the success of their kids? Just by way of example, one might suspect that financial success is influenced by some combination of intelligence, good looks, height, good health, and high energy. All of these factors are subject to genetic inheritance, so one would not be surprised to see the child of successful parents having a bit of a head start. Other traits, such as self-discipline (aka impulse control) or a love of learning can be taught, but are more likely to be exemplified by parents who already possess those traits.

So, to pick an example almost at random, one might expect Sasha and Malia Obama to become successful women based on the genetic gifts and cultural values passed on by their parents. Who among us will attribute any of their future success merely to their parent's high income?

Gary Becker has lots on this; a snippet:

The relation between intergeneration mobility and meritocracy becomes still more complex after we recognize that earnings in a meritocracy would depend not only on cognitive abilities, such as IQ. For it depends also on investments in education and other human capital, on getting to work on time, on being able to take criticism, and on many other psychological characteristics. Families that are more educated and have high earnings tend to invest a lot in their children’s human capital, and in various non-cognitive traits. In a merit-based economy where earnings depend on the totality of abilities and skills, children of high earning parents would also tend to be high earners because their parents would pass on both cognitive skills and investments in various forms of human capital.

Even after including parental investments in education, non-cognitive traits, and other human capital of children, an economy where success and failure are determined by merit would still have low intergeneration mobility. To be sure, investments in education and many other types of human capital are not only determined by parents, but also by government policies and by philanthropists. To the extent that governments and philanthropists invest more in the human capital of children with less successful parents (as appears to be the case for governments in Scandinavian countries), a merit-based economy could have relatively high intergenerational mobility since children from poorer and less educated families might have high levels of human capital investments.

Nevertheless, a big jump is still required to make inferences from the intergeneration mobility in a country to the role of merit in determining success and failure in that country. In particular, although the United States has considerably lower intergeneration mobility than many Western European countries, this does not imply that merit is a less important determinant of success in the American economy than in these other economies.

And all of that said, I further dispute that "the American dream" was ever a claim that one parent's were irrelevant. This is James Truslow Adams, no relation to the Oresidential family:

Adams coined the term "American Dream" in his 1931 book The Epic of America. His American Dream is "that dream of a land in which life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement. It is a difficult dream for the European upper classes to interpret adequately, and too many of us ourselves have grown weary and mistrustful of it. It is not a dream of motor cars and high wages merely, but a dream of social order in which each man and each woman shall be able to attain to the fullest stature of which they are innately capable, and be recognized by others for what they are, regardless of the fortuitous circumstances of birth or position."

By way of contrast with a Europe of landed nobles and hereditary guildsmen, America was notably lacking in barriers to self-improvement and advancement.

Now to pick up on Stacy McCain's point - he is deeply dubious of a study that tells us that West Virginia is more of a land of opportunity than, say, Silicon Valley or New York City. Good point!

By way of illustration, here are San Jose, NYC and a few beacons of opportunity from West Virginia:

San Jose

California

12.9%

New York

New York

10.5%

Spencer

West Virginia

14.7%

Buckhannon

West Virginia

12.6%

Welch

West Virginia

16.0%

These results reflect the probability that a child who was "raised" in the locale above in the lowest economic quintile (really, living there at about age 15 regardless of prior or subsequent movement) will eventually rise to the top quintile *of their age cohort* by about age 30. Parts of West Virginia have it all over the Big Apple or the biggest city in Silicvon Valley, which activates Mr. McCain's BS detector:

Stipulating that the data in the study is complete and accurate, and that everything in the analysis is legit — well, why is there a bright spot on the resulting map in the vicinity of Tuscaloosa, Alabama, but no corresponding bright spot near Athens, Georgia? Why does rural Arkansas look like a beacon of upward mobility, while the bustling economies of Atlanta and Charlotte produce no such effect?

Most of all, why does the map referenced by O’Brien show that impoverished Appalachia offers more opportunity for advancement than any of the more prosperous surrounding flatlands?

To use a social science term: Your data is obviously fucked up.

Well, that's as maybe. Eric Mertz commented over there with a follow-up on his blog, noting that the decision to fix children to one locale based on where they were at approximately age 15 is fraught with implications.

I will say this: the authors attempt to check the validity of that assumption and conclude that all is well. I am a non-buyer and suspect that a deeper dive into the data would unearth trouble in paradise. But first, their comments in anticipation of this objection:

We permanently assign each child to a single CZ based on the ZIP code from which his or her parent led their tax return in the first year the child was claimed as a dependent. We interpret this CZ as the area where a child grew up. Because our data begin in 1996, location is measured in 1996 for 95.9% of children in our core sample. For children in our core sample of 1980-82 birth cohorts, we therefore typically measure location when children were approximately 15 years old.

For the children in the more recent birth cohorts in our extended sample, location is measured at earlier ages. Using these more recent cohorts, we nd that 83.5% of children live in the same CZ at age 16 as they did at age 5. Furthermore, we verify that the spatial patterns for the outcomes we can measure at earlier ages (college attendance and teenage birth) are quite similar if we define CZs based on location at age 5 instead of age 16.

So that is reassuring. This, however, is far less so:

Importantly, the CZ where a child grew up does not necessarily correspond to the CZ she lives in as an adult when we measure her income (at age 30) in 2011-12. In our core sample, 38% of children live in a different CZ in 2012 relative to where they grew up.

That is a lot of movement, so they offer a bit of a breakdown:

44.6% of children who grow up in rural areas live in urban areas at age 30. Among those who rose from the bottom quintile of the national income distribution to the top quintile, the corresponding statistic is 55.2%.

So the poor move even more than the average. This final test reassures them but not me:

In row 8 [of Table V, p. 68], we assess the extent to which the variation in intergenerational mobility comes from children who succeed and move out of the CZ as adults vs. children who stay within the CZ. To do so, we restrict the sample to the 62% of children who live in the same CZ in 2012 as where they grew up. Despite the fact that this sample is endogenously selected on an ex-post outcome, the mobility estimates remain very highly correlated with those in the full sample. Apparently, areas such as Salt Lake City that generate high levels of upward income mobility do so not just by sending successful children to other CZs as adults but also by helping children move up in the income distribution within the area.

"Apparently"?!? As best I can follow, they looked at the aggregated data for Commuting Zones ("CZ") both large and small and and concluded that dropping the kids who eventually moved didn't change the results much. But that means that CZs with a large population, such as New York, will drive the population-weighted result and swamp whatever story the data might be trying to tell about Spencer, West Virginia.

So when they write that "apparently" Salt Lake City is seeing a combination of kids succeeding in the area and kids succeeding after moving away, my not-so-unreasonable question is, what did the data actually show for Salt Lake City specifically, as opposed to the aggregate? In the data tables all I can find is that without weighting for population the result for "8. Children who stay within CZ" has a correlation of 0.87 with the baseline estimate. However, when they re-weight by estimated population, the correlation rises to 0.95. That makes me think that rural areas are showing a much weaker correlation than urban areas. That overlaps with their comment that rural areas show a lot more movement, but the overall impoact is not to reassure.

And I am not at all sure what to make of this. Are we to conclude that Welch, WV is a great place to be born because it is easier to leave and prosper elsewhere? Or that being poor in Atlanta is dreadful but not so dreadful that people actually leave? Baffling.

GO AHEAD - MAKE MY DAY. Ask about Denmark.

Comments

[GMax]

A cheery reminder from Breitbart:

After six years, the president's support fades after he has to make political decisions that alienate groups of voters. Since the 1930s, the average loss for the president's party has been six seats in the Senate and 35 seats in the House.

[rse]

I was at the rollout in ATL of the Harvard Equality of Opportunity report. Literally had ACORN affiliated community organizers demanding what we must all do.

I just read one of the WH's Ed-Tech initiatives and it goes to closing the gap between the vocabularies of kids with well-educated parents and those without. I know that research and the difference in vocab at 5 are multiples of each other. Only way to close is to seriously manipulate elementary school so that the children of high achievers learn little and become an instrument within classroom for disadvantaged to access their more sophisticated vocabulary. What is called distributed intelligence. What you know and can do does not really belong to you and should be available to others.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

TomM-- try parsing the info by X-referencing to mass immigration. The mass immigration during the 25 years of the Reagan economic expansion (1983-2007) was unlike any previous era of mass immigration. Mexican/Central American, Caribbean,South Asian (pakistan and muslim Indians) and African immigration that was designed to create poor economic and cultural ghettos (same as prior), BUT stay fixed in that income and social strata for multiple generations (unprecedented). That may shed some light on this 'paradox'.

[henry]

TM, find something rotten in Denmark?

[Jeff Dobbs]

You know what sucks? Going straight from Friday afternoon to Monday morning.

I wasn't ready to give up on having a weekend, but I guess it's gone for good.

[Miss Marple]

Correct me if I am wrong, but moving from the lowest quintile in West Virginia to the highest in West Virginia is more easily accomplished than if one is born in Atlanta.

For example, a small town is West Virginia's highest income might be that of the local bank president, who makes perhaps $100,000 per year. The next higher incomes are probably a doctor, a dentist, and a couple of small businessment. Then you have to drop down to teachers and postal carriers to get that top 1/5 quintile.

In Atlanta, the uppermost 1/5 includes executives from CNN, Coca-Cola, and various other industries, so that top 1/5 group has much higher incomes and it is harder for someone born in a poor family in Atlanta to get there.

I am not even going into school systems, parental example (or lack thereof) race, or anything else.

I think the premise is faulty from the start and is not proving what they think it is.

[Klejdys]

Steve Sailer did a great write up on this as well and he treads where the NYT & The Atlantic fear to.

http://www.isteve.blogspot.com/2014/01/atlantic-why-is-american-dream-dead-in.html

[amirite on]

There truly is no exceptionalism which isn't improved by being born on 3rd base.

You don't even have to understand the game of Baseball.

[Jane-Rebel Alliance1]

Hit,

That's one hell of a graph.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Sailer points out a group that has exhibited multi-generational poverty, urban black americans. I would emphsize 'urban' here because rural black poverty 1865-1945 reflected the experience of white generational rural poverty, but with the aggravating factor of Jim Crow in the confederate states. A significant part of the mass immigration of 1982-2007 has reflected the urban black american experience. Hey? was that by design?

[Thomas Collins]

Everytime I read an article about some study showing that the US is not all it's cracked up to be, I think of the following thought experiment: Let's have six months of not only open immigration, but also funding (perhaps from Soros zillionaire types) of reasonable travel expenses for folks who want to immigrate. Where would they end up? Scandanavia? Cuba? Argentina? Iran? Russia? Sure, there would be a some countries besides the US with a significant net influx, but wouldn't the US pretty clearly have the highest net influx? So if we're such a lack of opportunity society, what gives? Are immigrants dumb?

By the way, to the extent folks have left the US recently, it's due to the restriction of opportunity and stagnant economy caused by the progs with their high tax/regulatory/nanny state mentality. And it's the progs who are most likely to complain about lack of opportunity.

[lyle]

You've probably seen this but I still love it (Insty this morning):

if every billionaire in the country was hanged tomorrow, the toll would lean heavily toward Obama donors.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

ThomasC-- the Progs have a different definition of 'opportunity'... very different.

[Thomas Collins]

I challenge the notion that inequality has gotten worse. It's probably significantly decreased. For example, a poor person's ObamaPhone probably doesn't get as good service as a Gates or Buffett can get with a plutonium plan. But the gap between the poor person's on the go communication capability and that of Gates or Buffett is a lot narrower than the gap in the Gordon Gekko era.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

repost of an excellent link from NK on the last thread - http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100256645/how-scott-walker-and-the-conservatives-saved-wisconsin-america-take-note/

[Beasts of England]

I'm already sick of the income inequality meme. And 'meme', too. I think this pivot will be quickly absorbed by the next pivot, as the frequency of his desperation cycles like a high-C.

The most economically illiterate President ever is going to once again brandish his fecklessness for all to see and attack a problem that doesn't exist. Further exacerbating his moronic attacks on this socio-economic apparition is that if there weren't a decades-low job participation rate due to his horrid leadership and outright Marxism, we'd be spared of this new hectoring and be moving ahead as a nation.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Janet-- people may want to also read the comments. Pretty lame attacks on Walker. I will watch how walker does with the womenz vote in November. Here's hoping he does >50% in Wisc.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

BoE-- get used to it. Income inequality, vaginas and racist repubs refuse amnesty is all you will hear from the dems & media (same thing) this year. 60-80M people will lose healthcare coverage due to Obummercare in '14, so they sure as hell won't talk ObummerCare or jobs.

[Account Deleted]

TC,

The Harvard buffoons who concocted the very risible study in question could not demonstrate increasing inequality or decreasing mobility, even with some statistical modeling which makes global climate hokery seem plausible.

I believe a strong argument can be made that the tenured thief guilds may succeed in permanently damaging the Millenial generation to a greater degree than any generation in the past but it's going to be another twenty years before all the evidence is in.

[Beasts of England]

A sign of the apocalypse. Just saw an ad on the tube from a law firm:

'Have you ever suffered a concussion from an NCAA sport?'

Bastards.

[Soylent Red]

Sure, there would be a some countries besides the US with a significant net influx, but wouldn't the US pretty clearly have the highest net influx? So if we're such a lack of opportunity society, what gives? Are immigrants dumb?

I think this clearly shows the cross-cultural, international craving to be racist, homophobic oppressors of Indians, transgendered types, oddballs, screwballs, goofballs, Jews, potheads, Muslims, skateboarders, fat kids and trees.

Moreover, I think it demonstrates the basic human desire for destroying the environment and waging a war on teh wymyns and/or polar bears.

So many people in this world willing to brave great risks and steep odds to become h8ters. Some actually do it illegally, their desire to h8t is so gr8t.

Almost too much to contempl8.

[matt]

I think the study's authors definition of Achiever is much closer to that of The Dude and the real meaning of the word.

[James D.]

I don't know, Beasts. I see an upside there - it's pitting two of the most harmful groups against each other: Scummy trial lawyers vs. out-of-touch leftist university administrations.

[henry]

NK, around here, the left is down to lame arguments. Note that tax cuts always favor the wealthy at the expense of "working folks", and cuts to gov unions are cuts to education. Also not the Milwaukee vs anywhere else split on the casino proposal -- urban greed is killing the regionalism push.

[Beasts of England]

I don't disagree, NK, but it would be very refreshing of the alleged opposition party would grow a pair and beat these fools around the head with a reminder about the blessings of which this country represents.

I hate this JEF asshole with the power of a thousand suns and can't believe my hair is on fire this early in the 'morning'. I need a Bloody Mary.

Or three...

[matt]

What I find most amusing about the leftist rhetoric on income inequality is that the phenomenon seems to have occurred primarily on Barack Hussein Obama's watch.

[Beasts of England]

That scrum wouldn't bother me at all, James D., but if they shut down football, I'll have to become a soccer fan. And that would truly be the dark times.

(with apologies to henry and the other JOM soccer standouts)

[Account Deleted]

"can't believe my hair is on fire this early in the 'morning'."

Beasts,

You don't wake up to the scent of smouldering pillow every day?

How odd.

[Beasts of England]

lol, Rick!

[MarkO]

I remember trying to get to third base.

[Truthbetold]

Obama is a baffoon. Do people on this comment board really think he is calling the shots?

[henry]

No worries Beasts. Been there, done that on NCAA sports related concussions so 5 minutes from now I won't remember what you typed. ; )

[anonamom]

Anybody else read yesterday's profile of the Seahawk's Richard Sherman?
No matter what you think of his trash talk last week, there is no denying this kid from Compton via Stanford to Seattle beat the odds---and guess why.

Guess whose dad lived in the same house. And married to his mom!

Guess whose mother went to his older brother's football practice after hearing he'd "acted out" in Spanish class earlier that day and whupped his fanny--with a belt. On the field--in front of his team mates.
(Not supporting beating as a discipline method, but that was one clear message!)

No amount of money tossed anybody's way will ever replace involved parents who regard that responsibility to be the most important thing in their lives.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/26/sports/football/seahawks-richard-sherman-is-much-more-than-just-talk.html?src=me

[clarice]

I put this carp in the same category as I do NIH's decision that it has to give more slots to black scientists. (As if the scientific world weren't already open hire.

Here's something to calm your nerves>http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100256645/how-scott-walker-and-the-conservatives-saved-wisconsin-america-take-note/

[dublindave]

It's actually quite brilliant of Obama to force Republicans into denying income inequality exists or even worse,sitting on their arse and doing nothing.

I don't know if there is income inequality,uncle sugar takes care of me and mine and in return we vote for the Democrats once every 4 years(i guess you could say that I work one day every 4 years so technically I probably make more money than anyone here...I just don't work as often) but it's a pretty smart political strategy boxing them in like this.

The War on women,immigrants,the unemployed and now people struggling to make ends meet.

Nice.

[Beasts of England]

Having two parents in the home is a catalyst to success and income mobility, as well, anonamom. The story's a two-fer!

lol, henry!

[narciso]

It's right up there with the Foreign Affairs piece,that the US should work with 'good AQ' Ahram al Shams, rather then ISIS or Nusra front, the study doesn't go near enough to prove it's premise, so logically it will be cited ad infinite, like the debunking of the study about the failure of stimulus plans,

[pagar]

TC @ 01:07. I believe that experiment has been ran for 50 years. Just compare the number of boats/people taken from American shores to Cuba and the number of boats/people taken from Cuba to America over the past 50 years.

Michael Moore is still here, William Ayers is still here, etc, etc.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

BoE-- my standing guess is that within 10 years HS football will be 7 v 7 'touch-tackle' and within 20 years NCAA football will be 11v11 'rugby type rules', no hard helmets or facemasks, with restricted 'safe' tackling...

AND YOU WILL BE AROUND TO SEE IT! That is all.

[clarice]

Soylent!!!!!

[386J-I-B289]

anonamom,

Everytime the media/press try to treat Sherman like another one dimensional athlete he finds a way to pull their chains - hard:)

BoE,

Just saw a survey of NFL players that says 85% of them would play in the Sooper Bowl with a concussion and something like 15% would lie to the trainer and doc. What this tells me is that the NFL will next have MRI machines on each sideline and every player who has a head hit will have to take one immediately and pass the glow factor.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Speaking of lame attacks @1:51. More like graveyard whistling....

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

JiB-- they pretty much do that now with the concussion 'protocols'. The NFL lawyers have ordered that it's not up to the players.

[Porchlight]

It's actually quite brilliant of Obama to force Republicans into denying income inequality exists or even worse,sitting on their arse and doing nothing.

Income inequality exists. Since it has existed since the dawn of income and will continue to exist as long as there are humans, I propose to do nothing about it.

I don't understand why people care about income inequality. Seriously, WTF do I care if the gap between my income and the income of the richest guy in the country is getting larger or smaller, as long as I am doing okay?

The left talks about how the right is greedy but the left are the only ones talking about how unfair it is that they don't have more money. Everyone I know on the right seems to be fine with their situation and that includes a very broad range of income earners.

[GMax]

compare the number of boats/people taken from American shores to Cuba

Well that, of course, and the only person I know that wants to vacation in North Korea is Dennis Rodman. Think about it for a second.

[GMax]

Brilliant and Obama are not even casually acquainted...

[matt]

I actually wouldn't mind if football got back to a more reasonable facsimile of the old days.

My best friend's dad growing up was a former Redskin who was crippled by the time he was 40 or so. He played in the 50's and 60's. Now, these behemoths have life threatening weight issues even during their playing days.

And as to income inequality, I see far more names with a "D" next to their political affiliation at the top than I do "R". Funny how the whole oligarchy concept is playing out.

"The rules are for thee but not for me."

[clarice]

Yeah, email me when people staple together sardine boxes to sail to Cuba across shark infested water.

[narciso]

Well since most aren't porch, time for 'squirrel', of course one wonders what value this wonderful spate of recovery summers, have done in skewing the numbers

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Matt-- Bill/Hill Clinton, Terry McAuliffe Nancy Pelosi and Chuckie Schumer all say:

'Equality for thee.... but not for me."

[clarice]

When they talk about inequality are they talking about Chelsea Clinton, the Kennedy spawn, the Hollywood offspring, the Gores? No, the class hate is largely directed at the productive folks who made it on their own efforts.

[narciso]

'all animals are equal, but some are more equal then others.

[narciso]

the political equivalent of the Lohans, the Cyrus's and the Beibers,

[Danube on iPad]

If for some reason you feel the need to be seriously, overwhelmingly depressed, read about the GOP Senators' alternative to Obamacare.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/gop-senators-unveil-first-health-care-plan-in-an-obamacare-world/article/2542953

I think I'm about ready to throw in the towel

[narciso]

Speaking of Westeros, Hillary says she hasn't driven a car in nearly 20 years.

[Beasts of England]

Thanks, NK. Make that five Bloody Marys now...

[386J-I-B289]

narc @ 2:09

Thank God. Think of the lives saved or gained.

[matt]

is that when she got her last DUI?

[Miss Marple]

I propose that the Iowa Caucuses be changed to a demolition derby for the democrats, winner take all.

[Jane-Rebel Alliance1]

I've been feeling like that for a while Dot. I think happiness is easier if you are oblivious.

[Jane-Rebel Alliance1]

I have a funny conspiracy story: I had dinner with a friend last week. We were sitting at the bar and golf on the TV. She asked me: "Don't you think the press had to know all about Tiger Wood's escapades for years".

I agreed.

She asked "why do you think they came out when they did?"

I mentioned the T-day crash.

She replied that was not enough of a reason to break the cone of silence. Then she told me, when he first became president, Woods refused to play golf with Obama. She strongly believes this was his revenge.

Sadly, I wouldn't put it past him.

[MarkO]

The press has yet fully to report on Tiger's steroid use. And, what the result of stopping has been.

The Democrats call for the GOP to offer up fixes for ObamaCare. All that does is insure there will be nationalized health care.

Fixes and amnesty. Those are the tickets.

DOOM

[Extraneus]

if every billionaire in the country was hanged tomorrow, the toll would lean heavily toward Obama donors.

Shouldn't that be "were" hanged?

[MarkO]

Yes. It's sub junk.

Like subpoena.

[jimmyk]

Are we to conclude that Welch, WV is a great place to be born because it is easier to leave and prosper elsewhere?

That was always a running gag when I would say I'm from Detroit, and the response would be, "That's a great place to be FROM."

[rse]

Chance of snow in ATL tomorrow of about 1 inch is now 70%. Much up from 6 hours ago. They don't know.

[Stephanie Yes I'm in how bout you?]

Yep, rse. We will either get nothing or a shitstorm of ice and a big mess. They rarely have a clue due to the gulf influx and speed of the snow v the speed of the gulf influx. Each can also feed the other and cause a really big mess.

I remember that storm in Macon and points south. They were calling for snow here and we got nothing and Macon got nailed like I don't even recall Atlanta ever being hit.

[Jack is Back! (Instigator-in-Chief)]

Signs of the times in Eurabia: In Belgium folly 68% of students are foreign born.

DOOM

[Jack is Back! (Instigator-in-Chief)]

Fully

[matt]

That's right, JiB! They're Flemish!

[boricuafudd]

I am still trying to figure out how there is no income mobility, unless you go from the bottom to the top and you do it by the age of 30, without going through the second quintile, third and so forth.

[GMax]

Not just toast, burnt toast. Via Rasmussen:

A new statewide survey of Likely North Carolina Voters shows Thom Tillis, the Republican speaker of the state House of Representatives, leading Hagan by seven points - 47% to 40%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and 10% are undecided.

[GMax]

And this should cheer you up:

a new poll from Washington Post-ABC News shows that fully 63 percent of Americans have either little to no confidence Obama will make the right decisions. The public is evenly split on whether Obama is honest and trustworthy, with 49 percent of Americans answering in the affirmative, and 48 percent answering negatively.

A bare majority of Americans, 52 percent, feel Obama does not understand the problems of people like them – a shocking downward turn for Obama on an important likeability issue in which he dominated in 2012. A majority of Americans, 51 percent, also believe Obama is not a strong leader. His disapproval rating stands currently at 50 percent, with 41 percent disapproving strongly – only 23 percent support him strongly. 50 percent of Americans have an unfavorable impression of the president.

I did not look, but usually WaPo/ABC samples way too many Democrats, so if this is too, its a lot worse than this even says.

[Danube on iPad]

From CNN:

"Most economists agree that there is room to increase the minimum wage without any dramatic impact on unemployment."

When I see the phrase "most economists," I reach for my revolver.

[lyle]

Ask Glenn, Ex. I thought the same as you but I quoted verbatim.

[GMax]

Bill Krystol likes the Senators' health insurance proposal for what its worth...

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Didn't Clarice say 'most economists' is the name of some leftist prof out of Berkley?

[polly]

Stephanie and rse, When we lived in Atlanta, I remember the ice storms as being the most awful--usually not too much snow. Lived there for about 35+ years. And, also, everyone panicked and ran to the grocery to buy everything off the shelves!

[Danube on iPad]

"Bill Krystol likes the Senators' health insurance proposal for what its worth..."

I'd like to hear him explain why.

[derwill]

I think we should talk about income inequality.

Lets talk about the record number of people on food stamps under the Obama administration.

Lets talk about how much the earned income of the poor and middle class has fallen since Obama became president.

Lets talk about how under Obama's watch the percentage of the workforce with jobs is the lowest it has been since the Great Depression.

Lets talk about the fact that the unemployment rate for AAs is the highest in history under president Obama.

If the gap between rich and poor is greater today than it's ever been before, then who is president now? Why I do believe it is that DEMOCRAT Barack Obama. Seems to me the solution to the income inequality in the United States is to elect a Republican senate in 2014 and a Republican president in 2016.

And while we're at it lets publish a list of all those super rich Liberals living in NYC, and Hollywood, and the Bay Area, along with their addresses. If the Dems what to whip up class envy and hatred, lets give them some legitimate targets on which to vent their wrath. Really, why should Pelosi get to live in a mansion in SF, when the company her husband is affiliated with, Dole Pineapple, gets exempted from having to pay their poor workers even the minimum wage?

[Beasts of England]

"Most economists agree that there is room to increase the minimum wage without any dramatic impact on unemployment."

So, economists agree that increasing the minimum wage will have an impact on unemployment. That's the way I read it, without any dramatic impact from the wiggle words...

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

The Senate thing is good posturing. When (hopefully) the House repeals the Insurer Bailout provisions, and the Senate holds up the Debt increase on that repeal, the Dems will scrteam, default, default,default.... and REPUBS have no alternative to ObummerCare. Voila a noncontroversial alternative; if ObummerCare fails b/c of no Bailout, this is what we'd enact. Besides why would ObummerCare fail without a bailout? Obummer says ObummerCare is going great, why is a bailout needed ? Posturing... Senators are good at that. But it is effective posturing.

[Stephanie Yes I'm in how bout you?]

They just showed the panicked people running to Kroger getting bread and milk on the news. It hasn't changed.

Looks like the precip won't hit til lunchtime tomorrow so it's a repeat of snowjam from 1982 - possibly.

My parents were in Bermuda and I had to take my grandma to Emory for a doctor's appointment the day snowjam hit. It took us four hours just to get out of the parking deck and we had to abandon the car on cardiac hill after other idiots chickened out on gassing it going up the hill. About 11 o'clock that night we finally had walked to a fast food place at Clairmont and I called a friend who was a high ranking police officer and got some cops to take us home which caused a near riot at the restaurant. Grandma had just had eye surgery and was legally blind and totally freaked out over the situation. Good times - not.

[GMax]

If you had let Grandma drive, you would have the approximation of Dallas drivers on ice. First reaction to a skid is stomp hard on the brakes. Its not the ice in Dallas, its the folks on the road who have absolutely no idea how to drive in those conditions...

Don't expect ice in Destin, but hell it got to 18 degrees one night two weeks ago so who knows...

[386J-I-B289]

Mrs. JiB corrects my 'Nederlands", it is actually 68% of all children 5 and under in Antwerp are foreign born. 30% of all residents are born outside of Europe.

Here is the map.

The very dark purplish areas of each district indicate over 40% foreign born. Binnen = inside Europe; Buiten = outside Europe

[Stephanie Yes I'm in how bout you?]

That was the problem I faced getting up cardiac hill. Even with the hottie frat boys out trying to help push cars up the hill, the idiot drivers were inept at figuring out how to drive up a hill in snow. And that storm was pure snow for once without the underlayer of ice.

[Dave (in MA)]

Apparently nobody in Brussels was born.

[GMax]

Here is Krystol on his blog. I have skimmed not read his comments and have not read the proposal at all. Based on that, I will reserve comment. If you have the time launch in and let me know what you find good, bad or indifferent:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/must-read-memo-gop-health-proposal_775434.html

[GMax]

Hindraker at Powerline:

Empty Suit Prepares to deliver Empty Speech

LOL

[pagar]

"A bare majority of Americans, 52 percent, feel Obama does not understand the problems of people like them – a shocking downward turn for Obama on an important likeability issue in which he dominated in 2012"

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/01/obama-fun-fact-african-americans-squeezed-out-of-housing-market-cant-find-jobs/#disqus_thread

"Five years in to Barack Obama’s presidency, the number of African-Americans participating in the labor force has hit rock bottom."

More African-Americans are being squeezed out of the housing market."

Interesting!

[boricuafudd]

"If the gap between rich and poor is greater today than it's ever been before, then who is president now? Why I do believe it is that DEMOCRAT Barack Obama. Seems to me the solution to the income inequality in the United States is to elect a Republican senate in 2014 and a Republican president in 2016."

That is the point of why they are talking they are trying, sort of successfully, of heading off a major talking point of the Republicans.

By talking about the problems which they created and offering they own solutions while blaming the opposition, they are using their lemons to make lemonade. Ironically, they will also further along their socialists ideology by doing this.

They are putting the Republicans on Defense which they are not go at. Pointing the finger at Obama and his policies alone will not work, this only works when you are in power. Which means we need to come up with something concrete that people can sink their teeth into. This is where we run into problems.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Retired RINO John Warner is endorsing Dem. Mark Warner for reelection.
The MFM is gearing up to label Mark Warner as a "centrist" blue dog Dem...that is almost, really, believe us, a conservative....except for how he votes.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/ken-shepherd/2014/01/27/ap-hails-former-gop-senator-warner-endorsing-centrist-dem-senator-mark

[Tom Maguire]

You don't wake up to the scent of smouldering pillow every day?

He loves the smell of smouldering pillow in the morning. It smells like... well, morning, I imagine.

There truly is no exceptionalism which isn't improved by being born on 3rd base.

To come back to the Real Issues, would Peyton Manning and his little bro have gone on to be NFL quarterbacks (and Super Bowl champions!) without an NFL quarterback raising them? I assume they inherited some fairly subtle athletic gifts from dad and mom, but I don't look at either of them and see obviously great physical specimens. (To be fair, Tom Brady and Joe Montana don't look like Superman, either).

So was Manning born on third base due to his genetics, his parental coaching, the expectations of others (Malcolm Gladwell would say that Peyton would have a lot more opportunity to develop and excel than some similarly-talented no-name), or what?

[386J-I-B289]

Dave,

LOL. Brussels is its own Federal province much like DC even though it is fully inside Flanders. BTW that map is Flanders only. Wallonia has its own problems - one is being the poor cousin to France.

Stephanie,

Where did you learn to drive in the snow and ice? I thought you were a native Georgian?

[Beasts of England]

Ouch, TM!

[GMax]

President Obama may enjoy a more than 80 percent approval rating at home in Washington, D.C., but less than half of residents approve of the president in 39 states. In 15 states, his approval rating is less than 40 percent, according to a new Gallup survey.

The eleven states where the president has an approval rating higher than 50 percent are largely concentrated in the Northeast, with the exceptions of California, Hawaii, and Illinois. Meanwhile, states where President Obama has a lower than 50 percent approval rating span the country, including typical Democratic states such as Oregon and Washington. In fact, in most of the states that the president won in the 2012 election he no longer commands the support of the majority.

Obama had an approval rating of less than 30 percent in three states: Utah (27.3 percent), West Virginia (25.1), and Wyoming (22.5). The approval ratings could be an indicator of how Democrats from states where the president is unpopular will run in the upcoming midterms.

You can run but you cant hide, bitches...

[narciso]

this was the silly report, I compared the study with;

http://lbfromlv.wordpress.com/2014/01/26/the-good-and-bad-of-ahrar-al-sham-foreign-affairs-by-michael-doran-william-mccants-and-clint-watts-january-23-2014/

[Beasts of England]

@TM: Their brother, Cooper, was the finest athlete in the family until spinal stenosis ended his sports prospects. What could have been...

[GMax]

Having known more than a couple of lucky sperm types, who not only did not recognize they were born on third base, but further had not a clue on how to get to the plate, I will say that there is a reason why they old sayings of "rags to riches to rags in three generations" is quite true. The dispersion of the wealth across multiple heirs and the cluelessness of many of the recipients lead one entrepreneur I knew to swear that he did not intend to inflict that curse on his own brood...

[386J-I-B289]

TM,

You need to get up close and personal with the Mannings. As I have noted here before, Archie and the boys (Peyton, Eli and Cooper) were playing right in front of us in 2011 at National. All of those guys, not Archie at the time, could easily drive a golf ball over 300 yards and play scratch. After the round we sat next to them on the porch and everyone of them is toned and fit. Are they 3 Arnolds - no, but they are very much what I would call athletically muscular. I know Eli looks like some skinny whippersnapper but he is far from it.

All 3 guys have hands the saize of ham hocks. Guess they got that from Mom:)