A Bit Of A Dis To Single Payer Advocates

Jared Bernstein, former economic advisor to Joe Biden, takes to the Times to tell us that the recent CBO report really wasn't about jobs and disincentives to work.

Hey, changing the subject is a time-honored tactic, and good luck to him. However, we were rendered slack-jawed by this policy insight (my emphasis):

What the Congressional Budget Office is saying is that because people receiving subsidies through the health care act will see those subsidies reduced as their earnings rise, they’ll choose to work less to avoid that loss.

...

The Affordable Care Act gives that job holder an option and, for some, an incentive to work less without losing health coverage. Conservatives might well object to making that choice on the taxpayers’ dime.  But there’s no model of health care reform from the left or the right that doesn’t involve a subsidy that fades out as income rises.  So this labor-supply-choice problem is endemic.

Uhh, does single payer really have subsidy phase-outs? I don't claim to be up to speed on every aspect of every progressive fantasy, but then again, I never worked for Joe Biden. I would have guessed that if Uncle Sam picked up the tab for everyone's health care and paid for that out of general tax revenues, there would be no specific subsidies to be phased. The overall level of taxes might rise, providing a general disincentive to work, but that disincentive would not be focused on the subsidy-eligible lower-earners, as with the ACA.

Well. Perhaps as a demonstration of the impact of delivering a reduced work effort, Mr. Bernstein then linked approvingly to this comic riff:

So what do you get when there’s less labor supply around stable labor demand?  A tighter job market. 

The economist Dean Baker uses Congressional Budget Office numbers to make this point:

“If hours fall by 1.5 to 2.0 percent, but compensation falls by 1.0 percent, then compensation per hour rises by 0.5-1.0 percent due to the ACA. If this is bad news for workers then someone must have been enjoying the new found freedoms in Colorado or Washington State too much.”

I'm crying. OK, I'm laughing through the tears, but the tears are real. The CBO was crystal clear - lower earners will have the disincentive to work due to subsidy phase-outs, so they will be more inclined to retreat from the labor market:

However, people whose employment or hours worked will be most affected by the ACA are expected to have below-average earnings because the effects of the subsidies that are available through exchanges and of expanded Medicaid eligibility on the amount of labor supplied by lower-income people are likely to be greater than the effects of increased taxes on the amount of labor supplied by higher-income people.

And this is arithmetic anyonne can do, even an advisor to Biden. If the lower earners reduce their participation in the labor pool then the average wage of those WHO CONTINUE TO WORK will... (a) go up; (b) go up; (c) go up.

If you picked "go up", well done. If the folks earning $10 bucks an hour cut back on their hours and the folks earning $30 bucks an hour stick to their old schedule then total hours worked will fall and the average wage will rise even though no one gets a raise or works more hours.

As BS spin goes this could hardly get weaker. How Obama or his fellow progressives can think the working class will overcome the challenge of income inequality (the defining challenge of the age!) by slacking their way to success remains a mystery.

Comments

[matt]

Cherry picking? The CBO report? The Rand report?

Or maybe it's the insurance company rent seeker bailout?

Or perhaps "if you like your insurance, you can keep your insurance"?

Or maybe it is the mass exodus of doctors out of the system?

Or might it be the cancer patients all over the country getting screwed over?

Turd burglars gonna be turd burglars.

[narciso]

Seens a touch redundant, so they are the Crowder clan of Milwaukee?

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Narciso-- many thanks for the Forbes Link. It has begun, the Bailout Line is forming... Without the bailout Humana ExchangeCare would suffer 25% losses? Quelle Surprise. "IT'S A DEATH SPIRAL!" If the Repubs blow this Rubio bailout repeal, they are hopeless.

[Ignatz]

Snopes on the Muslim exemption.
They declare it false at the top and then admit it's probably true in the article.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Live feed IRS hearings - http://www.c-span.org/video/?317634-1/IRSTar

[henry]

narciso, her son got busted for slashing the tires on Republican party's GOTV vans a while back, so there is some history to them. However Milwaukee has worse political clans from that same neighborhood.

[Threadkiller]

Snopes has been right on the money with Obama's eligibility, so this shotty stuff on the Muslims shocks me, Ig.

[Ignatz]

--Slightly amusing that Republicans have been preaching against the dangers of job-lock for years.....now that a negro has introduced a plan to give 2.5 million Americans a way out of job-lock Republicans are pro job-lock.--

I believe the Republican idea was to decouple insurance from employment not decouple the employee from employment.

[narciso]

Sorry I meant Crowe, I recall that's why I referenced them;

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Ignatz@10:28-- fabulous. you're the best.

[Ignatz]

Happy Birthday, JiB.

[narciso]

'Just another day in Westeros;

http://hotair.com/archives/2014/02/06/house-republican-pushing-mileage-tax-to-bolster-transportation-funds/

[narciso]

this is just intolerable, sarc;

http://twitchy.com/2014/02/06/so-youre-saying-i-cant-get-a-massage-conditions-worsen-for-journos-in-sochi-pic/

[Captain Hate]

I don't think Snopes is one person; rather a cabal of lefties with some more committed to not being thought of as dense than others.

[narciso]

Much like Pravda Facts, using someone from the St. Petersburg Times, fronts them, but sometimes not;

What was your first clue;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-26030911

[Captain Hate]

Slightly amusing that an influx of trolls indicates the mendacious mulatto has eaten screwed the pooch again,

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Dem. Connelly is attacking the people now. Oh my goodness.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

What a disgusting spectacle...oh my goodness. Connelly is scum.

[narciso]

Well not surprising Janet;

http://uacvirginia.wordpress.com/tag/islamic-saudi-academy/

[James D.]

What is the loathsome Connelly saying?

[jimmyk on iPad]

To summarize the arguments of the latest dumb Dave (even taking them at face value), so no one has to bother trying to catch up:

1. It was good for me, so the fact that millions are worse off doesn't matter.

2. It provides more choices, so it must be better, even if all of those choices are inferior to what you had (and are forced to give up). Like restaurant that used to have only 3 items into menu, one of which you liked a lot, now it has 10 things that you hate. More choice is better, right?

3. The fact that it costs hundreds of billions annually doesn't matter as long as taxes are raised so the deficit is reduced. As though spending increases don't matter if they are matched by tax increases.

4. There's a big difference between subsidizing unemployment and taxing employment, so the resulting unemployment is "voluntary" in one case and "involuntary" in the other. (The reality of course is that there's no meaningful difference in the effects.)

[Tom Maguire]

"slacking our way to success"

Oh, I wish I'd thought of that. But since I didn't, I can't steal that right away; maybe if I let it season for a day or two I can then pretend it is original.

But then, I am not a big deferred gratification guy...

[narciso]

OT:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/tv/showtracker/la-et-st-bosch-20140206,0,6269730.story#axzz2sYfKUNfe

[Danube on iPad]

"Snopes has been right on the money with Obama's eligibility"

The Birther Report disagrees, but the courts don't. Take your pick.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

He is attacking the True the Vote woman about her private business.
Hammering her with questions that OSHA found her company dangerous. Not her organization, True the Vote, that this hearing is about...but her business.

[Ignatz]

--It provides more choices...--

What is the origin of this odd myth?

[DrJ]

Happy birthday, JiB! May the waters near you be warm.

[jimmyk on iPad]

No idea, but even if it were true, why is that a good thing if all the new choices are inferior to what you had? (Not asking you, of course. Just rhetorical.)

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Now Dem. Duckworth is doing the same thing. Attacking her about her business.

Not True the Vote...not about the IRS....

[narciso]

Well this sector 7 drone agrees;

http://twitchy.com/2014/02/05/eric-boehlert-o-care-awesome-because-it-will-give-workers-choice-to-work-less/

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

JimmyK-- personally I don't concede that this is subsidizing unemployment, rather than taxing employment. This is most certainly FIRST and foremost a tax on employment. A tax on BOTH the employer and employee, a tax that forces the employee out of the labor pool based on rational financial considerations, because of ObummerCrae's perverse disincentives. The subjective reaction of an individual person to being forced out of work is-- or should be -- irrelevant from s policy perspective. The only legitimate issue is how many people are forced out of work by this tax. CBO was right about that.

[Danube on iPad]

Make it a great day, JiB.

That IRS e-mail doesn't seem as incriminating to me as it does to Jay Sekulow.

[James D.]

Janet - wow. These people really do have no conscience, and no humanity at all, do they?

[jimmyk on iPad]

Again, the point of my post wasn't to agree with dumb Dave's premises, just point out that even if they are true they don't support his case. A fortiori....

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

This will turn into destroying True the Vote founder Catherine Engelbrecht. SHE is in the dock now...not the IRS, not Lois Lerner.

Dems are absolute scum.

[jimmyk on iPad]

And a happy birthday to JiB.

[Jane]

Worse than scum, and Cummings should be investigated.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Now Elijah Cummings is attacking her on race.

She is on trial...not the IRS.

[clarice]

In the You Can't Make This Up Category:
Muslim arsonist of gay club was Obama State Dept Arab 'cultural ambassador'... - Conservative...
www.conservativeinfidel.com
(By Debbie Schlussel) -- A Muslim charged with and videotaped pouring gasoline on a gay club and setting it on fire was an “Arab Cultural Ambassador” for the State Department when it hosted visiting Iraqi “journalists” in Seattle. [...]

[Stephanie]

Wow. TM changed the tag line.

Love it!!!!!!

Sitting in the comfy pedicure chair getting a quickie pedicure before we leave.

[clarice]

Me, too, DoT. What's wrong with bringing an on point legal decision to the attention of a related agency?

[Captain Hate]

Jim Jordan is dropping the hammer. Too bad Boehner isn't committed to anything coming out of this.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

I disagree Janet. When you testify in a political fight, you become a political combatant and a legitimate target for opposing politicians to attack your credibility. Unseemly? perhaps but a political reality, probably since the founding of the Republic.
BTW-- there's a fantastic comeback for private citizens to make against unseemly politicians in these circumstances, and win the political fight.

[Ignatz]

--Wow. TM changed the tag line. -

I must have overslept because that day or two seemed more like an hour.

[Jeff Dobbs]

[Obama] has introduced a plan to give 2.5 million Americans a way out of job-lock

. . . and into job-lockout.

[Jane]

Wow, this hearing is amazing. Democrats are scum.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Clarice/DoT-- one thing though, this email utterly debunks that 'strict scrutiny' of conservative groups was done entirely done by renegade Cincinnatti staff (as my friend of 34 years testified.) Of course we knew that, but until lerner testifies, we only have clues like this to go by.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

approx. 30 min recess & then back on. Live feed here - http://www.c-span.org/video/?317634-1/IRSTar

[clarice]

And the corruptocrats are off and running

http://washingtonexaminer.com/house-panel-says-obamacare-co-op-improperly-diverted-25-million/article/2543541

[dublindave]

"I believe the Republican idea was to decouple insurance from employment not decouple the employee from employment"

Sorry,my mistake,I thought the original Republican idea referenced workers in their early 60's having the freedom to retire early.

Oh wait,it did.

[glasater]

OT
For Narciso who I'll bet knows all about this event:

Bosch!

[narciso]

that's like that Post piece on free will;

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/02/06/the-philosophical-debate-beneath-the-obamacare-jobs-freakout

[dublindave]

DMZ V George Zimmerman in a charity boxing match march 15.

Pretty sick but not quite as sick as hunting down and murdering a 15 year old child in the dark. Still,killing a negro made Zimmerman a Republican celebrity so I guess he'd just trying to cash in.

[Miss Marple]

How many people can afford to retire early and pay the premiums and deductibles associated with the new Obamacare plans?

And are you telling me, DD, that the entire purpose of this fiasco was to allow well-off Boomers to retire early while the Millenials are forced to supplement their policies by buying a product they don't want?

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Uh-- given the political party affiliation of the governor who appointed the special prosecutor, and the prosecutor herself, I believe 11:46 needs some re-thinking... or some thinking in the first place... or something.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Ol' Cummings hollering that he would rather die than have his voting rights taken away is SUCH a Dem. ploy. Where did that even come from?
Catherine Engelbrecht should have started yelling that she didn't want to be raped.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

It is back on...

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

and the Dems don't invite any leftist groups to testify & then whine that no leftist groups are there to testify.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

That's the kind of comeback the private citizen who's testifying can use to win against the petty tyrant Congrssman.

"I'm just an honest small business woman and concerned citizen who wants fair and open elections. First the IRS raped me because of my belief in fair elections and now, big shot Congressmen are raping me for having the guts to talk about this publicly. And I would rather die than see a USA where rich powerful G-men can attack a woman like me for her beliefs."

Killa response.

[Jim Eagle]

glasater,

I have read every Harry Bosch book but for some reason the ILoveFilm trailer won't play for me. Love to see how they cast the main character. To me I always envisioned Harry to look more like Mick Belker (Bruce Weitz) on Hill Street Blues but dressed better:)

[narciso]

Titus Wellever, doesn't strike as in Bosch's image either, he usually plays bureaucrats or mob figures.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

now the dems are badgering the people to say & prove who is leading the DOJ investgation...why doesn't HE know?

[Danube on iPad]

NK, the memo makes no mention of the Tea Party or conservative groups. It talks only about c4's.

[Holly]

anonamom, to answer a question posed on a previous thread, yes please do. Hensarling, Cruz, and Cornyn have asked to use our circumstances to illustrate the harms of Obamacare.

[Holly]

It's snowing here in Dallas, so I get to play on the computer today.
HB, JIB.

[glasater]

HB JIB-

It could work in Parallels mode but I'm not sure of that. All these movie type formats are hard to track.

[Ignatz]

--Hensarling, Cruz, and Cornyn have asked to use our circumstances to illustrate the harms of Obamacare.--

But if you let them do that you're liable to get audited or caught up in some regulatory nightmare....wait a minute.....never mind.

[Danube on iPad]

Happy birthday, Ronaldus Maximus.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

DoT-- fair enough. Of course we all want to hear Lois L testify about it.

PS: why is the aft most portion of a CV flight deck called 'the Ramp'? Is it a carryover from seaplane bases, or even your Gramps flight off of the back of that cruiser? Do you know?

[Bori]

A little late but Happy B-Day JIB may it be a glorious one.

[Miss Marple]

Happy Birthday, JiB!

[Jane-Rebel Alliance1]

Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland caught on tape saying "Fuck the EU".

It's at the end of the tape.

[Bori]

Almost right away the story goes off the rails trying really hard to deny that Fascism is a leftist ideology. To the right of Communism that had taken over in Russia, and was the rage at the time, the church had reason to fear it. As the ideology was atheist, and was working hard to strip the Orthodox Church of all their possessions and imprisoning or killing the clergy.

The Nationalistic Socialism, that the Fascists promoted did not have the same attitude in regards to the Church, as long as it went along. A similar thing was happening with the Industrial Leaders, all had seen what had happened to their fellows in Russia and supported and aided the Fascist, a grand bargain that allowed some to survive as long they followed the whims of the State, including the Nationalization of many industries.

This misconception that Fascism is a right-wing idea goes contrary to what Conservatism is all about. Less government, free markets and individual freedom not as the Fascist or Communist which all were authoritarian, centrally controlled societies.

[derwill]

You really have to appreciate the brazen contempt and utter meanness that the multi-millionaire elistist Left, living in their posh mansions within their gated communities, is showing toward the two million more Americans soon to be condemned to a life llived at the subsistence level. They're telling them to their face that it is a "good" thing for them that they will never be able to own that tacky two-bedroom ranch house in suburbia, (because that's not really "living," doncha know); or to ever eat out at anything fancier than a Denneys (well, they haven't developed the proper palates to appreciate fine food, anyway); or to send their kids to private schools (because who needs knowledge anymore anyway, as long as they're taught how to feel the proper feelings); or to see Paris (or even Disney World, which is full of fat Americans wearing tacky shorts, and who wants to see that?), or build a nest egg for a comfortable retirement (because MyRa will do that for you for $25 a month, which happens to be the money you will save when the government outlaws cola drinks). But, hey, you'll have plenty of free time to write poetry now (and never mind that nobody publishes poetry books anymore, there's always Amazon where you can "sell" your poetry for free) or you can be an entrepreneur, because the world is just full of banks willing to lend a single mom on welfare a couple hundred thousand dollars to start her own fashion line.

[daddy]

On the dog walk I heard a quote from John Boehner today about his difficulty getting votes in the House:

Boehner jokes Congress couldn’t vote to make Mother Teresa a saint

“You know, Mother Teresa is a saint now, but if Congress wanted to make her a saint, and attach that to the debt ceiling, we probably couldn’t get 218 votes for it"

I don't think I'm a prude, but in addition to not finding that quip funny, I think it is offensive to Mother Teresa (she's not a Saint), to Catholics in general, critical of the Republicans in the House, and that it provides ammunition to his political opponents to join in at damning the Republican House he leads. It simply struck me upon hearing as grossly inappropriate.

Why is this guy Republican Speaker of the House?

[21_cathy_f_in_tripep@d_prison_98]

Well, daddy, Mother Teresa is one miracle away from canonization -- maybe Boehner thinks that getting 218 votes to raise the debt ceiling would qualify as her second miracle?

Sure it's kind of lame, but it's the sort of joke that someone Jesuit educated would make.

Although the joke about on-her-way-to-sainthood Blessed Teresa is that she is reported to have commented upon JPII's relaxing of the rules for saint-making. Her comment: "better die quick, they're making EVERYBODY saints now!" Alas, the story seems to be apocryphal, although totally believable as something that she would have said!

[Johnpaul]

This is a waste of time to speculate. Any economist can tell you the goverment will be long broke before this , happens. There will be No money for anyone from goverment. The collapse has already begun. All you have to do is look at fake fake manipulation of the gold prices. This was a failed attemp to stop the collapse of. The us dollar