Don't Cry For Me Argentina

Megan McArdle does a fine job of defending AOL CEO Tim Armstrong but I fell obliged to nitpick this point about the restructured employer match to the 401(k) program:

For those who haven’t been following along at home, a recap: Last week, AOL Inc. announced that it was changing the way it handled its 401(k) match. Instead of putting the matching money in as workers put in their contributions, it would award the account-match dollars in a lump sum at the end of the year. Moreover, if you left the company during the year, you’d lose all of your matched funds.

...

What he said about the effects of changing the 401(k) match isn’t exactly true, however -- it’s not just people who leave the company who will pay. All the AOL workers who contribute to a 401(k) will miss out on gains they might have made over the course of the year, had AOL stuck with its old program. In a boom year, that could add up to thousands of dollars.

Well, yes, in a boom year it would be financially advantageous to have invested money during the year rather than at year-end. On the other hand, in a down year, such as 2008, the year-end lump sum structure would have saved equity investors some money relative to investing during the year. On the third hand, the stock market has more up years than down years.

And - last hand - I have grave doubts about that "add up to thousands of dollars" claim. Let's consider a highly motivated AOL professional earning $200,000 per year. Per this site, they would have been eligible for a maximum match of 3%, or $6,000:

The company, which owns TechCrunch and, it goes without saying, employs me, matches 50 percent of up to 6 percent of our pre-tax income (or a 3 percent maximum match, for the non math-majors).

So let's take 2013 as a "boom year", with the S&P 500 up roughly 30%. A lump sum invested at the start of the year would grow by $1,800. That is nearly $2,000, so I suppose "thousands" could apply.

But of course, that is not the relevant comparison. I let the OCD take over and dredged up the monthly close of SPY, , an ETF which tracks the S&P 500. An investment of $500/month at each month end from Feb 1 to Jan 2, 2014 would have represented a total investment of $6,000 and an ending value in Jan 2014 of $6,398.43. A $400 return on $6,000 is lot less than 30%; 6.7%, actually.

Now obviously there are possible paths for the market to take that would lead to equal monthly investments showing net growth of 30% by year end. For example, it would be helpful if the market would swoon in Janauary, crater over the summer and then rally heroically late in the year.

However, my guess is that there are not many AOLers earning $200,000 a year and not many examples of a year where the S&P showed that kind of behavior. So this hypothetical loss of "thousands" to some AOL employees sounds like a tremendous longshot.

I should add that Ms. McArdle is hardly alone; here is another account:

2. You miss out on gains. "As a participant, I want the money as soon as possible," says Frank Fantozzi, president and CEO of Planned Financial Services, a Cleveland-based firm that runs retirement plans for 50 companies, all of which deposit 401(k) matches with each paycheck.

"And as an investor," adds Fantozzi, "I want to get the money in the market as soon as I can. Getting the money on Dec. 31 theoretically means you miss out on a year of earnings."

In 2013, for example, when the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index rose 30%, investors that had to wait to get their matching contribution on the last day of the year missed out on huge gains.

"Huge" gains? A 6.7% averaged 2013 return for an employee getting a max match on $50,000 per year would have been $100. If you think that is huge, wait'll you see what I've... oh, never mind.

Comments

[MarkO]

Oh what a circus, oh what a show.

[narciso]

Well he got that great deal with Arianna's cripsheet, so his judgement ins suspect.

[Stephanie VIP shhhhh its fight club]

And the money kept rolling in.

[narciso]

In a simmilar light;

http://cantotalk.blogspot.com/2014/02/what-exactly-is-new-hillary-clinton.html

[narciso]

Im sure this was an oversight;

http://babalublog.com/2014/02/11/the-truth-behind-the-sloppy-and-shameless-arsht-cuba-push-poll/

[narciso]

There was this bit with the chocolate rations, re Minitrue;

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/02/09/economists-survey-february/5289159/

[daddy]

Haven't started catch-up yet, but here is Lib Ron Fournier admitting that he is naive and whining that he is getting tired of trying to defend ObamaCare.

Why I'm Getting Sick of Defending Obamacare

What I like are the comments. Can't speak for all 1,202 of them, but so far it's looking like 100% of the commenters are giving Fournier and his previous cheerleading of ObamaCare the thrashing they deserve.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Let's hear it for the Rainbow Tour, it's been an incrediblle success....

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

when you've lost Ron Fournier.....

[narciso]

You wondered why he was such an easy mark in the first placel

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Did TomM short the Lehman event? According to TomM, 2008 a 'down year'... too rich. Nice way to describe a 30+% across the board equities collapse.

[narciso]

Interesting in light of the stated narrative;

However, a Memorandum for The Record prepared by the Deputy Chief of Base specifically states that the Chief "authorized the move" and the Chief told the Committee: "We launched QRT [Quick Reaction Force] as soon as possible down to the State [Department] compound."

[lyle]

Don't worry, folks. I'm sure Fournier will soon remind us Obama himself had nothing to do with O-care. He's still perfect in all ways and so dreamy...

[narciso]

frogs shouldn'r be surprised they get stung by the scorpionl

http://freebeacon.com/our-man-in-moscow/

[Jim Eagle]

Don't forget, its couples figure skating tonight:

[rich@gmu]

that is a terrifying photoshop.

[matt]

Hmmm..heartless capitalist AOL? Making up for poor management decisions by screwing their devoted right thinking drones?

Why this just doesn't fit the narrative, does it? I am depressed.

[henry]

Something tells me that by the end of this year the AOL faithful will wish he'd stuck to the switch. Using the match to retain talent in a declining company is a better business reason to switch than what he cited... AOL is not long for this world with that imbecile in charge.

[Danube on iPad]

Fournier: "I want the ACA to work because the GOP has not offered a serious alternative that can pass Congress."

Why doesn't he say "I want the Congress to pass the GOP alternative?"

[daddy]

Hey, according to Scientists the Shroud of Turin is real again!

Apparently it absorbed a bunch of Neutrons in some earthquake in 33 AD, which painted the image, plus became the reason why Carbon Dating testing is mistakenly dating the Shroud at only 728 years old.

Since I personally have been thru the 89 World Series Earthquake, a dozen 6.0 or greater Japanese earthquakes, and a hundred local tremblers here in Alaska, I'm guessing I must actually be 7 thousand or 8 thousand years old by now.

[Danube on iPad]

Meanhile....

"...according to a report cited by Free North Korea Radio, [Rodman] was practically forced out of the hermit kingdom for his full-blown drunk and disorderly behavior.

"'Rodman was drunk the whole week of his stay. And the night before he left for the U.S., he was drunk unconscious, and vomited everywhere he turned. He even urinated and emptied the bowels in the hallway,' said the source.'"

--The Korea Times

[Bori]

Narc
It's about saving the regime, a lift on the Embargo and other sanctions will allow them to continue its path for a little longer.

Lyle

Fournier did excuse Obama, just in a different way;

"Unfortunately, the president and his team are making their good intentions almost indefensible."

You see, his intentions are good, all is forgiven.

[daddy]

"'Rodman was drunk the whole week of his stay. And the night before he left for the U.S., he was drunk unconscious, and vomited everywhere he turned. He even urinated and emptied the bowels in the hallway,' said the source.'"

How 'bout we send him to Sochi so he can catch "Pink Eye" along with Bob Costas.

[rich@gmu]

read somewhere that he has also come under scrutiny for sanctions busting (Treasury and FBI)...no wonder he went into rehab hiding.

[MarkO]

"You see, his intentions are good."

But I'm just a soul whose intentions are good
Oh Lord, please don't let me be misunderstood.

Of course. What was it that paved the road to hell?

[narciso]

But how is that from any other day of the week for him?

[daddy]

Anyone notice how there is no corruption whatever at the IRS because nobody was ever told from higher ups to do illegal stuff, it just happens that all those low and mid level bureaucrats decided to do all that rogue illegal stuff on their own. But conversely we can all trust the NSA implicitly because the guy up top has said to the low and mid level guys that they shouldn't do rogue illegal stuff on their own so naturally they'll all obey him perfectly.

[narciso]

There's a touch of irony though;

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/02/appeals-court-choose-life-license-plates-are-unconstitutional/

[narciso]

in the light of the earlier discussion,

[Captain Hate]

In the Norks killed Rodman I'd consider it a diplomatic show of good faith.

[daddy]

Sarah Palin turns 50 today. Happy Birthday Sarah!

Just in time for the Start of this years Iron Dog Snowmachine Race which starts on 14 Feb. Go Todd!

He's got a new partner this year but I forget who.

Hopefully they still have plenty of snow out in Big Lake in the Valley where it starts. We are snowless here in Anchorage due to you guys stealing our Polar Vortex, but it's cold as snot (currently 1) here in balmy Anchorage, and the local news sez we have a bunch of minus 50 to minus 60's out in the Interior where Todd and his buddy will be zipping along next week.

[Captain Hate]

If the Norks...

[Captain Hate]

HB to SP and AW

[daddy]

Dennis Rodman vomits, urinates, defecates in Korean hotel

Well who hasn't?

[Danube on iPad]

Story about Lcdr. Erik Kristensen, whos death is depoicted in Lone Survivor:

http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/01/24/seeing-my-friend-depicted-in-lone-survivor/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=1

I know his dad, Ed (a starting tackle on Roger Staubach's Cotton Bowl team) and his godfather is a good friend here in town. I haven't seen the movie, and wasn't going to, but since Erik's mother and father both saw it I guess I will.

[narciso]

Well if needs must;

http://minx.cc/?post=347081

[rich@gmu]

it is 2 articles in one...

>>>I want the ACA to work because, as Charles Lane wrote for The Washington Post, the link between work and insurance needs to be broken.<<<

>>>For the second time in a year, certain businesses were given more time before being forced to offer health insurance to most of their full-time workers.<<<

going off script with this latest round of rearranging...

[narciso]

floor wax and dessert topping, rich.

[Captain Hate]

Danny might be a terrible owner but there's no way he's backing down to these turds: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/02/11/members-congress-urge-nfl-to-change-redskins-name/

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Nice article by AllahPundit about Boehner's Debt Ceiling incompetence... sheer political incompetence: http://hotair.com/archives/2014/02/11/boehner-might-not-have-the-votes-for-a-clean-debt-ceiling-hike-either/

[Jane-curling is on!]

Dot, it was an incredible movie. I'm not a movie goer - that was probably the first movie I've seen in 3 years, so what do I know, but I found it amazing.

I know that when they had the preview for the people involved, including the parents, the 3 mothers of the 3 guys who died on the mountain left the room, and came back when it was over.

That was a long time.

It is very worth seeing.

[Old Lurker]

Regarding Fournier, I wish Fox could watch how fast I can switch to the History Channel when their fair and balance puts another one of those jerks on my screen. For a time, my Juan Button was enough but Ron Fournier? Really?

Or I wish Fox cared what I thought. Do they really think the other side will ever love them?

[Captain Hate]

OL, the interview with Ailes was very interesting; he only cares about the network getting attention. I don't like a lot of his moves, like this, but he still slatters the other cable news networks.

[rich@gmu]

NK-

they were going to cave anyway and had announced they were going to do so. not much else for Boehner to do because he's got to get amnesty through.

[daddy]

Narciso linked to this twitter gal on the previous thread, and here's her latest:

Ana Navarro ‏@ananavarro 1h
Funny. “@ChrisRRegan: At some point, Bob Costas is just going to vomit onto a doughnut and complete his transition into The Fly.”

Ha!

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Amnesty? after the latest Obummer Peronista 50-99 employee Imperial Decree. I'll put a small wager on that young man.

[Sue]

Happy birthday DoT.

When someone asked Marcus Luttrell if he was American he replied "I'm a Texan"!

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Costas-- I'd put the odds that Putin poisoned him 65-35 -- in favor.

WHADDAYA GONNA DO 'BOUT IT COMCAST!

[lyle]

I'm with OL. Juan W. is a barely functioning retard. With apologies to retards. If you're going to have someone spew left wing talking points with minumum coherence at least make her easy on the eyes. Admittedly, there aren't many lefties on the distaff side worth looking at. That Sally Cohn guy isn't too bad, though.

[Sue]

All I know is if Texas secedes, Marcus Luttrell will be fighting on my side.

[rich@gmu]

very small. I'm too cynical, but nothing would surprise me at this point.

Since the congress has nothing else better to do than pester a football club maybe they should all go home and not come back.

[maryrose]

At some point all these exceptions and changes to the O-care law by preezy will cause harm to individuals who will seek redress in the courts. Then all hell will break loose. This law is going ,going, gone...

[lyle]

Bob Costas [learning he's been poisoned]: "But Vlad! I'm on your side!"

[maryrose]

rich:
i second your recommendation.They leave for another break on Thursday. Just stay home until the midterm election.

[Jim Eagle]

DoT,

What would compel Ismay to go ot Columbia Journolism School? Great story but I hope he didn't a little corrupted attending that zoo.

narciso,

Wonder how we get away with our Choose Life plates here in Florida? Don't see any Chooose Choice or Planned Parenthood plates. Maybe we're next. Every one of our priests cars all have Choose Life plates as do a lot of our parishioners.

[peter]

It would be a funny bit if someone sent Dennis Rodman to Soichi and asked him to compare the toilets of one commie hell hole to that of another.

[rich@gmu]

thanks. would like to see 535 new faces. this crop has done more than enough.

really they don't like the Redskins and want to make it a federal issue.

[jimmyk]

Wonder how we get away with our Choose Life plates here in Florida?

"Choose Life" is arguably not specifically abortion-related, so I'm not sure just having the plates would be a problem.
I suspect the issue was this in NC:

North Carolina lawmakers authorized the “Choose Life” plate in 2011, with a portion of the proceeds from sales of the plates earmarked for a nonprofit that supports crisis pregnancy centers. The law prohibited money from the plates from going to any group that promoted abortion.

Of course, there's never any problem with money going toward Planned Parenthood, whether from license plate sales or not.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Since the congress has nothing else better to do than pester a football club maybe they should all go home and not come back.

Amen, rich!

[Beasts of England]

Good for Daniel Snyder! Hope he never gives in...

[Danube on iPad]

If it secedes, I don't think there'll be any fighting. The way to do it would be to leave all U.S. installations undisturbed, and do not challenge the feds' access to and use of them (contra Fort Sumter). Withdraw congressional delegations, and of course decline to pay U.S. taxes. Sure would be fun.

[lyle]

Check this out:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/370854/democrats-media-slam-president-romney-over-health-care-law-changes-charles-c-w-cooke

[daddy]

Fun bit of nothing comment to follow:

Dennis Miller is trying to do a joke that keeps bombing because the punch line is, "An idea so bad it made Icarus fidgety."

He said he tried it in Vegas where it bombed, and he blames his sidekick Christian for talking him into doing the line, and the back and forth banter between those 2 on the Show today over that line is much fun.

The Easy Bake Oven---an idea so bad it made Icarus fidgety.

Perhaps I'm punch drunk from being home for so long. Road trip tomorrow---whoopie!

[narciso]

you ask for miracles, Theo;

http://hotair.com/archives/2014/02/11/karl-rove-why-is-rand-paul-beating-up-on-bill-clinton-for-old-sins/#comments

[Cortes was a sissy]

Miller is as funny as...Adam Sandler.

His over-reliance on verbose minutiae and his rapidly contrived delivery is not a substitute for material.

He has a following of conservative pity, that is all.

[narciso]

That line, was a bit byzantine for me, and I thought I was connoiseur of his material.

[Beasts of England]

I'm not advocating secession, but, the earlier linked maps show how - from a GDP perspective - viable economies of a national scale can be carved out.

[lyle]

You're part of the problem, Karl. You've certainly never had the stones to push back against ANY dem.

[Extraneus]

I'm not advocating secession

I am.

[Jane-curling is on!]

Fox just hired that horrible man married to Mary Matalin. Talk about hard on the eyes.

Kirsten Powers is my favorite liberal, and who knows how long she can stay a liberal. She's probably the best looking one too.

Shamoo makes me absolutely crazy. Like Juan she never ever shuts up.

[MarkO]

Secession might be the natural consequence of diversity.

[lyle]

His over-reliance on verbose minutiae and his rapidly contrived delivery is not a substitute for material.

Translation: "I'm not smart enough to get any of Dennis Miller, so I'll dismiss him as a conservative chew toy. It feeds my superiority complex."

[Captain Hate]

Rove's fat ass is chapped over immigration reform being shelved so he's lashing out at any target for his big money donors.

[lyle]

"Shamoo" is a new one on me, here. Any hints?

[rich@gmu]

rand paul would support an amnesty if it came up for a vote.

[Moctezuma was his bitch]

And Lee Atwater was a Rhythm and Blues Animal, but no one understood.

[Jim Eagle]

lyle,

Charlie Cooke is a Brit and no one does political satire like the Birts. Brilliant stuff. bgates level parody.

[Batista]

The over-weaning stupidity contained in the Cuban expat teensy Florida minority, and the slavish devotion of every politician adhering to this gaggle of cretins goes against all my Bizness principles.

End the embargo

[Jane-curling is on!]

Charlie Cooke is a great guy, (getting married in April to an editor at NR). He may be my favorite NR writer altho Jonah often knocks it out of the park.

[Sandy Twosdaze]

narc,

Many, many thanks for the link,

The Best Is Yet To Come...

I can hope.

[lyle]

And Lee Atwater was a Rhythm and Blues Animal, but no one understood.

Translation: "I've huffed so much glue today, I've begun to refer to myself in the third person: Elmer."

[lyle]

Thanks, JiB. I had seen Cooke on Kudlow one night last year. He's just as bright when he extemporates live.

[Beasts of England]

I guess I was too clever by half. My point was intended to be: there are many good-sized economic entities, viz. state's boundaries, and it wouldn't take an Etch-A-Sketch to draw new political maps, as necessary.

[Beasts of England]

Brilliant, lyle! lol

[narciso]

That's true, just look at Europe, borders shift over centuries

[rich@gmu]

rand paul...

>>>But I will not repeat the mistakes of the past when vague promises were made and not kept. Would I hope that when they become citizens, these new immigrants will remember Republicans who made this happen? Yes.<<<

they won't.

[lyle]

Would I hope that when they become citizens, these new immigrants will remember Republicans who made this happen? Yes.

Sure. Just like the tens of millions of AAs that vote R to this day because of the party that emancipated them, right, Rand?

[James D.]

Rich, that Paul quote is just mind-blowing.

And he's supposed to be one of the smart ones on our side.

[Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet]

Happy Birthday, DOT. Hope you have a great one at Ruth's Chris. Hoist a few dry ones for the gang at JOM. I'll be hoisting one for you at about 7:00 eastern.

[lyle]

I'm beginning to wonder if we even have any of those, James D.

[Jim Eagle]

James D.

Paul is posturing - Surveillance, War on Women and Immigration. Going for the Democrats cross-over vote in the open primaries:)

[daddy]

Still doing catch-up and just to the secession bit:

which is why some group smaller than 34 should give one year's notice of intent to secede due to breach of contract.

I wish we had a Lawyer up to verify, but off the top I think we probably have a better case for Secession than the other 56 States. My not perfect understanding is that we were promised in the State Hood Deal that we would have X amount of acreage given to the State by the Feds and that we would be allowed to develop our resources in Oil,Timber, Fishing, Mining, etc to pay for ourselves.

I believe that we have still not yet been given the entirety of our acreage, but we most definitely have been prevented from developing our resources. I suppose there are other bits and pieces of the deal that have been dishonored in a Statehood deal with the US Govt, but I'm too lazy to and too uninformed to say for sure.

How about you guys down South? Which of you guys think your state has a better reason than your neighbors to tell Uncle Sam to take a Hike?

[narciso]

Taranto has a swiftean exercise

Here's a thought experiment. Suppose Congress enacted the following statute: "Any drugstore that is part of a chain with 20 or more locations doing business under the same name (regardless of the type of ownership of the locations) shall offer cigarettes and other tobacco products available for sale to its customers." Call it the Marlboro Mandate.

[lyle]

It would be difficult in Idaho since the gubmint owns ~65% of all the land here. And we're the seventh largest state. Wilderness, dontchaknow.

[narciso]

Life imitates Team America World Police;

"I just wanted to tell you one more thing in confidence. The Americans are going around and saying we're too soft, while they're moving more firmly toward sanctions. . . . Well, we're not soft! We're about to issue a very strongly worded statement about Bulatov!"--Helga Schmid, a representative of EU High Commissioner Baroness Catherine Ashton, quoted by blogger Walter Russell Mead, Feb. 7, 2014

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Or Rand could just be nutz like his dad. It happens.

[Ketchup]

"Surveillance, War on Women and Immigration..."

Well. that is where the rest of the country is.

[daddy]

Don't know if you watched that Althouse link to the early risque Shirley Temple short film, but since it's about DC Corruption I love her name in the film: Polly Tix.

[daddy]

FOX Business New's Jerri Willis is in red today and she looks great, so she's my nominee for FOX gal of the day.

[Beasts of England]

Reasons? We don't need no stinkin' reasons!

¡Ándale!