Phony ObamaCare Success Statistics

Today is notionally the final day for ObamaCare sign-ups, so the usual suspects in the national media are engaging in some "how're we doin?!?' reporting cheerleading. At the risk of being struck by a pom-pom let me single out the LA Times - their story which has seized the post position at Memeorandum, deserves special mention for this dubious stat:

At least 4.5 million previously uninsured adults have signed up for state Medicaid programs, according to Rand’s unpublished survey data, which were shared with The Times. That tracks with estimates from Avalere Health, a consulting firm that is closely following the law’s implementation.

Sicne their headline included the factoid that "At least 9.5 million previously uninsured people have gotten health insurance since Obamacare started", that 4.5 million from Medicaid is a big deal. But how meaningful is that estimate?

A huge caveat that ought to be attached to that number (but hasn't been) comes from what has become known as the "woodwork effect" - with all the hue and cry about ObamaCare, people who were previously eligible for Medicaid have "come out of the woodwork" to sign up. An ardent ObamaCare booster might insist that they only way we could have ginned up all that publicitity was by crafting and cramming down a complex, unpopular bill; here on the third planet, we will argue that a much less complex PR campaign could have boosted Medicaid enrollment with a lot less controversy.

But on to some numbers; here is Think Progress citing this report from Avalere Health in early March:

A new analysis by Avalere Health finds that the Affordable Care Act’s open enrollment season is boosting Medicaid signups even in the states that have refused the health law’s optional Medicaid expansion.

“Enrollment of new Medicaid beneficiaries continues in both expansion and non-expansion states,” said Jenna Stento, senior manager at Avalere Health, in a statement. “Medicaid applications have increased 27 percent on average from October to January compared to application rates before ACA. Application rates in expansion states increased 41 percent over the same period.”

Stento told ThinkProgress that enrollments even in non-expansion states grew by 13 percent from October through January, compared to previous months.

Avalere estimates that between 700,000 and 800,000 Americans in non-expansion states who were already eligible for existing Medicaid programs, but never actually signed up for them, enrolled between October through January. This is a phenomenon that health care experts refer to as the ACA’s “woodwork effect,” wherein eligible populations come “out of the woodwork” amid persistent national and local coverage of the health law’s signup period. Some of these people may simply not have known that they previously qualified for government health care benefits, or didn’t know how to sign up.

Expansion states saw much bigger enrollment hikes, with somewhere between 1.7 million and 2.7 million signing up for Medicaid for the first time, since some people in those places became newly eligible under expansion. All told, between 2.4 million and 3.5 million of the poorest Americans started receiving Medicaid coverage for the first time during the first four months of Obamacare’s enrollment season.

The population split between expansion and non-expansion states seems to be roughly equal (based on learning that the overall average increase of 27% comes from subgroups of 13% and 41%, as well as this map and this list.)

So if we assume 800k 'woodworkers' for the non-expansion state, how many similar people came out of the woodwork in the expansion states? One might argue that, lacking other information, it is plausible to assume that the proportion is the same. So, with total expansion of 3.5 million as of January (the high estimate), we would be estimating 1.6 million 'woodworkers' and 1.9 million people that are newly eligible under the revised and expanded law. The woodworkers represent 46% of the total.

But wait! One might argue that the states that expanded Medicaid have a long, proud history of generosity with other people's money and would have worked hard over the years to sign up as many eligible people as possible. In which case, substantially all of the 'woodworkers' will be found in the non-expansion states; this puts them at 23% of the total at the end of January.

Now, did the composition of Medicaid enrollees change substantially in February and March? Who knows? But lacking final reports, a fair range for the number of newly-insured 'woodworkers' would be 23% to 46% of the 4.5 million figure cited by the LA Times. That would lead to a 1 to 2 million reduction in the new Medicaid enrollment and consequently a 1 to 2 million reduction in the headlined 9.5 million figure.

Like the LA Times will note this.

 

 

Comments

[anonamom]

Could the feds come in and charge the state with kidnapping?
They've removed her from her parents, keeping her--against her will, and her parents will-- from returning to her home state.

[rich@gmu]

doubt the US Attorney would develop a case ... but it would be worthwhile to figure out what Boston's Children is up to.

great job Jane getting this story out.

[Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet]

Is there some procedural anomaly in MA that prevents seeking relief in the appellate court, Jane?

[Jane]

The feds won't. The feds are Holder/Obama/Patrick.

This is the state v the family. So are we going to leave Justina who love her more than is humanly possible, or the state who doesn't give a shit.

I guess the real question is - does it take a village?

[narciso]

John Schindler, makes this pressing observation;

Russia's pulling some troops off UKR border, which means we can expect their Special War against Kyiv to get hotter than ever.

[Account Deleted]

Eric,

I coached T-Ball/Little League a bit and if either of those two played, their moms brought them to try outs and practices. The only kids I ever had a basic skill problem with had moms who reacted loudly to instructions to throw hard at the targets heart. They also flatly rejected coaching the precious darlings to stand still and receive a ball coming at their chest or heads. The kids did OK when mom wasn't there for the most part but a few always showed much more promise as matadors than short stops when fielding and a few would just never throw at the target. They could hit a telephone pole but not a second baseman standing on the bag.

[rich@gmu]

Posted by: Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet | March 31, 2014 at 08:39 PM

been wondering the same thing.

[Jim Eagle]

Freeman Dyson is 90.

Wonder how many problems he can solve before he is a 100.

[Steve]

Loss for words: Kathleen Sebelius Has No Comment After Hearing Oklahoma's Opposition To ObamaCare

[Steve]

Loss for words: Kathleen Sebelius Has No Comment After Hearing Oklahoma's Opposition To ObamaCare

http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2014/03/loss-for-words-kathleen-sebelius-has-no.html

[Danube on iPad]

"Could the feds come in and charge the state with kidnapping?"

I don't think so. Sovereign immunity.

[jimmyk]

Sovereign immunity.

I thought the Feds don't get involved with kidnapping anyway unless the victim is taken across state lines. Otherwise it would have to be a civil rights* matter or something where federal law kicks in. Of course I defer to the lawyers here.

*Of course by any reasonable definition of "civil rights," this would qualify, but of course to the Feds this means only discrimination based on race, religion, etc.

[Danube on iPad]

There is one, and only one, measure of the benefit of Obamacare. It is the difference between these two numbers:

1. Those who lost their previous coverage because of , and are now uninsured.

2. Those who have become insured because of Obamacare who were not previously eligible for coverage.

(That would tell us the benefit. The cost is a carol for another Christmas.)

If the benefit number were something to brag about, these mountebanks would be trumpeting it non-stop through the great thunder-machine of the New York Times. Instead, they won't disclose what it is.

[narciso]

He can probably run rings around physicists, half his age, a true giant in the field,

[Clarice Feldman]

People in CT should press their governor and state legislators to do something to return the child, too.

[jimmyk]

And Jane, it's great you are getting involved. This is a very disturbing case, somehow reminiscent of the Amiraults, even though obviously very different. But both are cases of state legal systems run amok. Kafka in Massachusetts.

[rich@gmu]

i thought it was an assumption made automatically in most kidnapping cases-regardless of whether the victim is transported across state lines.

[pagar]

From the U can't make this up dept:

http://www.jihadwatch.org/2014/03/u-s-taxpayers-to-spend-400000-for-a-camel-sculpture-in-pakistan

Your great-great grandchildren will still be paying off this insanity.

[Captain Hate]

I'm thinking the Dersh versus bureaucratic turds would be pay per view material. Enter the Thunderdome.

[It is not difficult to construct a hypothetical.]

All well and good, Jane, but that reasoning is such a slam dunk it's a wonder there's been no invasion, yet. OK, too cryptic by only the tiniest bit, but there's something cryptic in the State's actions. Can they be this mad, or is patient confidentiality preventing insight in to the situation.

[narciso]

much like the Force field around the Death Star, no one can get a true reading;

http://thefederalist.com/2014/03/31/can-anyone-tell-how-obamacare-is-doing/

Btw, the Sophists called Cohn, telling him lay off already.

[That is not a given.]

Face it, DoT, it's only a plus if she clinically improves at home.

[JiB]

Now if only Justina was from Texas.

[Clarice Feldman]

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2014/03/31/study-obama-and-the-democrats-disrupted-the-whole-healthcare-industry-for-just-two-million-uninsured/

[Miss Marple]

That is not a given,

She is not improving now. Her health is worse than a year ago. She is now in a wheelchair when she was skating.

And as someone pointed out on Fox the other night, even if she did have a mental disorder (which I do not believe), the proper treatment is not isolation and imprisonment.

Normally this would be treated with counseling and perhaps anti-anxiety medication.

What has happened to her original doctor? Why is he not speaking out? Oh, I forgot, the reason they went to Boston children's is because he transferred there. Except he hasn't ever seen her. Instead she has been shunted to the psych ward.

If she gets home and doesn't get better, it is quite possible that her health was destroyed by this long period without treatment.

I am very disturbed by the information that children who are wards of the state are approved for medical experimentation. Where are all these liberals who pretend to care about children?

Jane, please let me know if there is a place to donate or people to write to.

[MarkO]

It is a measure of the Progressive insanity that anyone could believe a critically ill child is better off without her parents around to support her.

Keep me in the loop, Jane.

[Captain Hate]

Thirteen months of getting progressively worse. Another major victory for the mental health professionals. Maybe they should try something relatively respectable like working at carneys.

[Jane on Ipad]

I think it will go to the Appeals court Jim. I just don't know when.

[She is undiagnosed. That's a problem.]

All true, Miss Marple, but you are not telling me anything I didn't know already.

[Miss Marple]

She was diagnosed at Tufts. Are you (whoever you are and quit changing your name, please) unaware of that? That she was under the care of a doctor?

[Jane on Ipad]

Apparently thr Republican Party is afraid there is something they don't know and it will bite them in the ass. If they play this properly - gov overreach, I don't think that is possible. If there is an issue with the parents, why the hell is it secret ?

[My doctor is a bot.]

There's a lovely irony working in that story about two million, c. Aren't the rest of us all gonna love listening to the success stories?

[narciso]

this is bizarre,

http://www.fixcas.com/cgi-bin/go.py?2013f.Pelletier

what kind of quack, do they have over at BCH,
he should be studying humours and other pre Renaissance science,

[Treatment is the easy part.]

Is the diagnosis correct?

[Miss Marple]

Which diagnosis? The somataform diagnosis from BCH, or the mitochondrial disease from Tufts?

[rich@gmu]

MM-

the name changer is our long time commenter here

[Miss Marple]

OK, rich, I will let that go.

However, my point remains.

[Beasts of England]

As has been pointed out around the Interwebs, Clarice, the number of newly-insured is of no interest to this administration. It's the camel's nose under the tent. Any positive spin is gravy.

[rich@gmu]

is a longtimer here...anyway.

[I dunno. Nor does anyone.]

Are either right?

[narciso]

Two different diagnosis, as far away in the spectrum of ailments, as one can be and still practice medicine, and we've noticed a pattern with this particular doctor haven't we?

[narciso]

that earlier piece, was a companion piece to this;

http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/dgreenfield/cnn-wont-cover-local-story-of-dem-state-senator-busted-by-fbi-for-missile-arms-deal/?utm_source=

[Colds are too complicated for me.]

Heh, n, herding skunks and tuxedo cats together and calling them zebras. Dang it, y'all, I don't wanna get curious.

[rich@gmu]

and you will all be unsurprised ... I'm still in the waiting room.

looked at what was offered ... a minor subsidy if I make no more income for this year ... a bronze policy

$226/mth; $3500 deductible; $6350 max out of pocket (that was the cheapest deductible range was to $6500)

a gold plan $343 $0 deductible

all looked cheaper than my cobra but not sure who here would take it.

[Danube on iPad]

"Face it, DoT, it's only a plus if she clinically improves at home."

The author of those words attaches no importance at all to a child's being with her family in their home, as opposed to being in an institution and separated from her family. The sole determinant, in his mind, is the clinical outcome. If it does not depend on where she is, then there is no basis to prefer one situation over the other.

Dr. Emengele couldn't have said it better. This is the face of government as caregiver. Aided, of course, by useful idiots.

[narciso]

this piece seems to be fairly thorough;

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2013/12/15/justina/vnwzbbNdiodSD7WDTh6xZI/story.html

because everyone has 5-10,000 to spare for deductibles, wasn't this why Red Squaw we needed this, in order to prevent bankruptcy,

[My curiosity ran seven leagues beyond my boots.]

Well, the wheels have been spinning trying to figure out which is more likely: 1. Both diagnoses correct. 2. Neither diagnosis correct. 3. One correct, but not the other.

Failure to thrive under both therapeutic regimens suggests neither, though inefficacious treatment renders that suggestion less likely.

Has treating her for both been tried?

[narciso]

I don't know how valid this is, but if I can find this in half an hour?

http://www.madinamerica.com/2014/03/discussion-justina-pelletier-boston-childrens-hospital/

[Otherwise, Tom; stew in your own morbidity.]

Face it, DoT, if she doesn't improve at home, being with her family will not change the clinical outcome, and ultimate external judgement of the correct course, in retrospect, of course.

I'd be surprised if the presence of her family did not improve her and her family's perception of the whole of the situation. Her present keepers are gambling that that will not happen, and though the odds may seem long, they aren't non-existent.

[Jane on Ipad]

What truly pisses me off is that she is a resident of CT. How dare MA kidnap her?

[boatbuilder]

While presumably physician-patient confidentiality precludes any doctor who treated Justina from saying anything publicly about her without her consent, there is nothing to prevent her prior (non-BCH) doctors from saying what they think about the parents--and yet we hear nothing. The dog that didn't bark? One would think that if there were something real behind the "child abuse" claim that we would hear some leakage. I do not for a second doubt that there are some very screwed up parent-child medical situations out there (and I confess that my initial reaction was to assume this was a Munchhausen-by-proxy-type thing) but the silence--and the gag order--is extremely bizarre.

[Last I checked, which has been awhile.]

Now, Jane, Boston Children's is in Massachusetts.

[narciso]

So, what do they have to show for a year of 'socalled treatment;

http://www.vitals.com/doctors/Dr_David_Demaso/credentials

How did the head of psychiatry take over this case in the first place,

[Miss Marple]

Name-changer,

She was doingfine under the treatment from Tufts. She wound up at BCH for a respiratory infection and they went there because her doctor had transferred to Tufts. Her SISTER has mitochondrial disease as well, which is a genetic disease.

So, we have thriving while at Tufts, gets an infection and goes to see her doctor at BCH, she is instead kidnapped at BCH by the psychiatric department, which has held her ever since and where her health has declined.

[DrJ]

MM, please call "name changer" Kim. Kim is to global warming what rse is to Common Core.

[So I smell a uh, uh, over ripe cheese.]

A doctor once told me that three of the main classes of lies told in the emergency room were about narcotics, worker's comp, and child custody.

[narciso]

Sounds like Soviet style psychiatry, are they accountable to anyone for their mistreatment,

[Captain Hate]

This is what happens when the state deputizes health professionals to run roughshod over the rights of parents to take care of their children. Good luck to anybody who gets caught in the crosshairs. Hopefully this case can be used to open some eyes.

[boatbuilder]

From reading lots of ER reports in personal injury cases I think the most often told lie is "Patient admits to having one or two drinks...."

[He can stick his bill up his ass.]

Well, if that's all true, Miss Marple, then it's a slam dunk. I just wonder. Thriving at Tufts by getting a lung infection requiring transfer seems an odd definition of 'thriving'. I'm not privy to the facts, so devil's advocate is particulary fun and easy for me about this case.

What can a doctor do that a duck cannot?

[narciso]

Do we know which doctor in the department, made the diagnosis,

http://connects.catalyst.harvard.edu/Profiles/display/Person/9101

[boatbuilder]

Ya think the parents gave her a lung infection?

[Jim Miller]

For Ignatz, and others - Here's the Seattle Times story describing some of the warnings about logging in the area above the Oso landslide.

Interestingly, one logging company decided not to log there because of the dangers.

(I haven't seen a clear discussion of the this history, but apparently the Indian tribes in the area often oppose logging in sensitive areas, and sometimes hire experts to help make their arguments.)

[She only did morning appointments.]

Heh, boatbuilder, that same doctor told me that he routinely triples the admitted history.

Then there's the old woman who took just one drink a day. A pint of gin in a tall glass, starting at Noon.

[Jim Miller]

And if you really want to see more on these issues, take a look at some of the "Watchdog" stories listed in a side bar at the Seattle Times article.

[boatbuilder]

Not that there's anything wrong with that, mind you..

Goodnight.

[Beasts of England]

I thought kim always signed like this:
=================

[narciso]

Alright, you read further ahead, and we see this person was the one who made the other diagnosis;

http://www.brazelton-institute.com/bujorbio.html

how appropriate that was, is debatable at best.

[Happy, happy, joy, joy Ignatz]

Thanks Jim.
What I took from the story was the slide was inevitable with the river undercutting the toe of the slope and the timber cutting may have hastened it some.
So unless they were going to move the river it was going to happen eventually.
I wonder why the state didn't recommend a selective harvest instead which would have left ~half the mature trees. The area logged was flat as a pancake which lends itself perfectly to a selective cut as opposed to a clear cut.

[Happy, happy, joy, joy Ignatz]

Kim has limited and modified his/her hangout, Beasts.

[kave]

I don't know guys. I think name changer is NOT Kim and is a sock puppet. This person does not phrase things like Kim.

[Brer Fox has nuthin' on me.]

Elsewhere, boe; different rules in this special clubhouse.

n, that's a psychologist. Who's the psychiatrist and of what persuasion is he, or she?

[narciso]

This may explain the bizarre ethics of that particular facility;

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/02/20/what-we-found-in-a-boston-childrens-hospital-policy-manual-about-research-on-wards-of-the-state/

[Frau Edith Steingehirn]

If Justina is not thriving and is, in fact, withering/wasting away, where would be the best place for her to live out her final time, in a hospital or a home? Adults are often sent home with hospice care. Why not this child?

(Hallo, Kim! A German doctor told the patient his illness would last two weeks with medication or a fortnight with Schnaps.)

[I'll be sorry for it. I was trying to ignore this case.]

Very much appreciate the interest and attention, kave, but in this case, I did start in tormenting Jane, and Miss Marple, and even DoT.

[narciso]

Well this is the first time I really see the process behinf the diagnosis, when I start pulling on a thread,

[Hey! That's not funny.]

Heh, if looks could kill.

[Beasts of England]

Thanks. Very much a fan (but not that FOMD) of kim's global warming smack-downs across the webz. Legendary.

[narciso]

From the Globe piece, this seems to be who did the handoff;

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/jurriaan-peters/4/121/627

[Miss Marple]

Well, one target is leaving for the evening, so you will have to amuse yourself with someone else.

Good night, all.

[That's pharmacology.]

Best treatment for a cold, Frau, is to put your hat on the bedstead, get into bed, and drink from a bottle of good whiskey until you see two hats.

[Miss Marple]

narciso, caught your last post before I left.

That Peters guy is from The Netherlands, which is sort of ominous given their euthanasia laws.

[Jim Miller]

Rain fall and Oso: March had a record rain fall for Seattle and, quite possibly, for the Oso area.

It wasn't a little bit above normal, it was a lot above normal.

According to Cliff Mass, who I linked to in my last post, that steady cumulative rain is more likely to cause a "deep-seated" landslide, like the one at Oso, than a sudden downpour.

I think it likely that record rain is why the landslide occurred this month, rather than next year, or even five or ten years from now.

But I am not a geomorphologist -- in fact, I didn't even know that specialty in geology existed, until last week -- so you should take my opinion with at least a grain of salt.

[Now I lay me down to sleep.]

Sweet Dreams, Miss Marple; love ya', and that's for real. If you're right, and I hope you are, then the young lady will get better in the care of her family.

[narciso]

They seem to be more about insulating themselves from accountability, since they had already decided they were on the right course,

was there a licensing board that could be appealed to, it really is Kafkaesque or Rod Serling territory,

[Danube on iPad]

"Face it, DoT, if she doesn't improve at home, being with her family will not change the clinical outcome,"

Again: whoever wrote that can discern no difference between her being at home and being in an institution unless the clinical outcomes are different. That is someone with a cold, malignant heart.

At this moment, a very dear lifelong friend of mine is in what appears to be the terminal stage of ovarian cancer. Her ordeal began before Thanksgiving, and since then she has been bounced back and forth between her home and a hospital a half mile away. Unfortunately, about 85% of that time has been at the latter. In her every waking and lucid moment, her principal concern is that she be allowed to go home.

Everyone knows how it's going to end. And everyone (including everyone at the hospital) wants her to be able to go home.

Why do you suppose that is? And why do you suppose this girl is any different from my friend?

[Captain Hate]

I tawt I taw a gwaduation:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2014/03/28/osu-students-had-no-say-on-speaker.html

[narciso]

was that some sort of penalty, for last season's performance,

I don't say the parents did everything right, but where is the accountability for these doctors?

Dr, Peters, attended the Catholic University, which isn't necessarily dispositive, but would suggest more caution on these matters,

[narciso]

As usual, the Dog Trainer doesn't dissapoint, by that I mean, they always do;

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2014/03/31/L-A-Times-Cooks-the-Books-as-Obamacare-Deadline-Hits

[narciso]

Really is that your final answer?

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/03/chris-christie-my-big-obama-bear-hug-did-not-hurt-mitt-romney-video/

[No, wait, I'm glad something helps.]

Well, Tom, I'm sorry that your devastated emotional situation is aided by making things up about what I say.

[Captain Hate]

Really is that your final answer?

Levin's takedown of Fat RINO Bastard tonight was pretty good. Said that his arguments remind him of Ford in '76.

[Mitochondria, eh? Aren't they alien?]

Well, Peters is a neurologist. Who made the psychiatric diagnosis?

I ask partly because psychiatrists often work with patients who have medical illnesses, and the good ones improve results from both medical and psychiatric diagnoses. Who made the decision to exclusively treat her psychiatrically, and not both medically and psychiatrically?

[Frau Holzhacker]

Jim - the LUN has another Seattle article with a different interactive photograph which may interest Iggy, our woodland wonder.

[Home is where they have to take you when you show up.]

Tom lives in a wonderful world in which no home can be abusive or neglectful.

[Ann]

I have not read the whole thread, but I did see Jane's concern for Justina and once again, Jane, I am so proud to know you, as a defender of freedom.

Just realize this too is political. Remember the Terri Schiavo case. Study it and you will discover how to navigate the left.

The left was so concerned about Terri that the Urban dictionary tells you all you need to know:

shivo
adj. being extremely weak from hunger
"Hey, Ryan, let's stop at Tacohell. I'm so shivo I could eat the ass out of a skunk!"

Also, arm yourself with this:

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/gosnell-movie

[Happy, happy, joy, joy Ignatz]

As Jim's link said, the hydrological effects of any clear cutting should be gone by, IIRC 16-27 years.
The story said and it looks like the vast majority of what was cut was cut around 1988 - 26 years ago. The tiny 7 acre clear cut of a few years ago is not capable of causing a square mile (640 acres) to slide.

[Frau Holzhacker]

DoT expressed my opinion better that, if possible, sick and dying people--especially children--would rather be at home than in a hospital.
In the Age of Affordable Care, however, the Secretary shall be in charge. The country is truly screwed.

[Happy, happy, joy, joy Ignatz]

I'm not sure kim was disputing that, merely pointing out the clinical effects wouldn't change. I didn't take him/her to be discounting the non clinical advantages of home care.
And believe me if anybody has a strong opinion on the value of home care, it's me.

[Frau Holzhacker]

I share your understanding of kim's comments, Iggy.