Who Will Explain The Explainers?

Driven by the Fierce Urgency of Now, the Administration has decided to revamp the Census Bureau survey of health care coverage, The new approach will be different enough that time series data won't be comparable; the timing is hardly ideal for those curious as to the impact of ObamaCare, prompting a freak-out by Megan McArdle.

But round up the usual apologists! Sarah Kliff, nee of the WaPo Wonkblog and now with Ezra Klein's Vox, is here to reassure us. However, I can't get on the same page with her on this (my emphasis):

Census officials told the Times that the changes will make the survey a more accurate measure of who actually has health insurance coverage. The new survey questions are expected to show a higher uninsured rate. In a test last year, they found that 10.6 percent of Americans said they did not have health insurance when using the new questions – compared to 12.5 percent when people were surveyed with the old ones.

Maybe I am just stuck on dumb, but if the new survey method yields a 10.6 percent uninsured rate and the old method produced a 12.5 percent rate, isn't the new method producing a lower uninsured rate?

Let's flash to the NY Times passage Ms. Kliff is summarizing:

The questionnaire traditionally used by the Census Bureau provides an “inflated estimate of the uninsured” and is prone to “measurement errors,” said a working paper by statisticians and demographers at the agency.

In the test last year, the percentage of people without health insurance was 10.6 percent when interviewers used the new questionnaire, compared with 12.5 percent using the old version. Researchers said that they had found a similar pattern in the data for different age, race and ethnic groups.

Hmm, if the old method produced an “inflated estimate of the uninsured”, that suggests the new method will produce a lower estimate of the uninsured, yes?

The Times explains that the uninsured rate comes down because the new survey is more detailed as to the timing of coverage:

The old questionnaire asked consumers if they had various types of coverage at any time in the prior year. The new survey asks if they have insurance at the time of the interview — in February, March or April — then uses follow-up questions to find out when that coverage began and what months it was in effect. Using this technique, census officials believe they will be able to reconstruct the history of coverage month by month, over a period of about 15 months, for each person in a household.

...

The new survey was conceived, in part, to reduce a kind of bias or confusion in the old survey. When asked about their insurance arrangements in the prior year, people tended to give answers about their coverage at the time of the interview — forgetting, for example, if they had Medicaid for a few months early in the prior year.

If I am reading that correctly, the survey being undertaken now (early 2014) will attempt to recreate the respondents' actual coverage month by month for 2013. That ties in to Ms. Kliff's reassurance, straight from a "senior administration official":

It might not be time to freak out quite yet: What's being missed here is that the Obama administration will use the new survey questions to collect data for 2013, the year prior to Obamacare's health insurance expansion, a senior administration official says.

The Census Bureau reports the health insurance rate with a one-year delay; in September 2013, for example, the agency reported the percent of Americans without coverage in 2012. It will most likely report the uninsured rate for 2013 sometime this coming fall.

In other words: The survey will make it difficult to compare the uninsured rate for 2012, the last year for the old questions, and 2013, the first year for the new questions. But making the change now means that 2013 and 2014 – the year before and after Obamacare's big programs started – are using the same question set.

Hmmph. In principle, the Census Bureau might report the 2013 numbers early this fall, just before the election. But then again, maybe not - back to the Times:

However, Mr. O’Hara of the Census Bureau said the agency was not planning to release coverage data from early this year in its next report. Agency officials want to assess the reliability of the monthly data, being collected this year for the first time.

I imagine they will still be assessing the data on Election Day.

Comments

[GMax]

I don't think this list is comprehensive either.

You need a photo ID to:

adopt a pet
purchase a home
purchase an automobile
purchase a gun
obtain a bank account
obtain a credit card
obtain a passport
write a check
make a credit card purchase
apply for a loan to purchase anything
to prove your age
to get married
to receive a marriage license
to drive
to buy a house
to close on a house
to get medical care
to get on a plane
to get insurance on anything
to get a job
to get a post office box
to get a hunting license
to get a fishing license
to get a business license
to cash a paycheck
rent an apartment
rent a hotel room
rent a car
rent furniture
rent tools and equipment
receive welfare
receive social security
receive food stamps
buy cigarettes
buy alcohol
buy a bus ticket
buy a cell phone
buy any antihistimine
go in to a casino
go in to a bar
go to college
have your water turned on
have your electricity turned on
have your cable turned on
have your gas turned on
obtain trash pick up service
pick up a package from the post office
pick up a package from fed ex
pick up a package from ups
pick up a prescription

[Captain Hate]

Shocking that under the JEF the census is asking a ton of garbage questions which the founding fathers would have rejected out of hand because they're no business of the federal government. Obviously neither party has any respect for the Constitution.

[Frau Fahrradfahrerin]

The preezy shall...
In addition, watch how quickly sampling replaces an actual enumeration.
Schweinehunde...

[MarkO]

Explain this: Every day this week is a palindrome: 4-13-14;4-14-14;4-15-14;4-16-14;4-17-14;4-18-14;4-19-14.

Factor in the blood red moon and we are deep in the Book of Revelation.

[daddy]

Sounds like if we used this new Census counting method to examine Global Warming we'd get a Pool Stick, not a Hockey Stick.

[narciso]

the glorious victory at the Malabar front, must be observed. even if it was a defeat.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/kristine-marsh/2014/04/15/boston-bombing-anniversary-cnn-analyst-says-us-right-wing-extremists

[Jack is Back! (From Resetting Safari and Clearing History)]

Gmax,

You forgot that you need an ID to cross the border unless yoo are an illegal from Central America.

[Captain Hate]

In addition, watch how quickly sampling replaces an actual enumeration.

Ugh, I can see Cantor jumping on that bandwagon and towing another one of his amnesty bus tours behind it, since that's the type of scam that cranks the illegal undocumented count to eleventy.

[daddy]

On a previous thread JiB posted a link to this story:
Lawrence O'Donnel and brother, traveling abroad, injured in taxi accident

Commenter on the story posts this:

Hope the taxi is okay...

[Happy, happy, joy, joy Ignatz]

I emailed Sarah Kliff asking her to correct her dreck.
We'll see.

[narciso]

Sarah 'Gosnell is a local story' Kliff, shirley you gest.

[daddy]

I would think that if Lawrence O'Donnell was traveling in a Socialist country he would have stayed in that Socialist country for medical treatment, because O'Donnell as we all know is an admitted Socialist, and constantly sings the praises of Socialist Utopianism and why this country needs to become Socialist. Occam's razor therefore tells me that he was traveling in a non-Socialist country.*

*Except that O'Donnell, like all Socialists is a massive hypocrite, so Occam's Electric Shaver tells me that O'Donnell did indeed have an accident in a Socialist Country, but bailed out like crazy back to the US for immediate attention by what remains of the Health care system in this country that he is working so desperately to destroy.

I hope it was Cuba.

[Jack is Back! (From Resetting Safari and Clearing History)]

Just when you thought Uncle Joe was within redemption:

The bombing was worth it

Of course it was in order for you to make another fool of yourself. What a doofus.

[narciso]

there is apparently penalty for failure in some parts;

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/saudi-intelligence-chief-replaced-by-his-deputy.aspx?pageID=238&nID=65111&NewsCatID=352

[Happy, happy, joy, joy Ignatz]

Joe Biden; our first Special Olympian Vice President.

[Carol Herman]

Just another survey people won't take seriously.

Can't hide the fact that lots of Americans are now angry. And, the democrats are feeling that anger.

To offset the "loss of faith" I expect voter fraud will become astronomical. While the "good news" is that the legacy media can't do the math.

For real news you'll still have to go to Drudge. (And, social media outlets.)

[daddy]

Gretta just did a segment where apparently the BLM guys dug a quick grave on the Bundy Cattle Grazing territory and there is at least 1 dead Bundy cattle buried there, and possible up to 40. The average cattle according to the FOX reporter on location goes for about $2,200 if I heard correctly and last night I heard that 110 head of his cattle are missing.

I didn't hear the entire segment so I may be a bit off, but I'm glad Gretta is covering this since no other network is.

[Steve]

Wanted "Director of Operations".
Hilarious video of people interviewing for the job of 'Mother'

http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2014/04/wanted-director-of-operations-long.html

[Happy, happy, joy, joy Ignatz]

Sheriff Joe's Olympic teammate takes the baton handoff in ther 4X100 moron relay and runs with it:

Rep. Mike Honda celebrates ‘over 100 years of Japanese-American friendship’

[narciso]

but remember Volodya was crazy;

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/04/ukraine-launches-military-operation-against-pro-russian-militia-in-east/

[narciso]

A real flash in the pan, and Caveat Gawker;

http://legalinsurrection.com/2014/04/interception/#comments

[Account Deleted]

"I imagine they will still be assessing the data on Election Day."

Alternatively, enumerated data could be acquired from NAIC based upon reports which, by statute, insurers must file. The data would not have the aura imparted by the use of sophisticated computer modeling but it might be of some use due to its reflection of reality.

[Bori]

RB,

Speaking of the data used on Election Day...

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/weird/Dog-Chosen-for-Jury-Duty-255184841.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_PHBrand

Don't they use the same data for jury duty and for the elections?

[narciso]

Dogs are very discerning judges of character, people are less so, on balance.

[narciso]

How much actual journalism was a part of this;

http://www.lawfareblog.com/2014/04/the-washington-post-and-guardian-pulitzers-i-dissent/#.U01eOnWYZwQ.twitter

[narciso]

the modern version of the Boston Massacre, is happening now in Caracas, and Tachira, and Valencia, and two months ago, in Kiev

http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/protestas-en-venezuela/140414/machado-dice-que-los-democratas-del-mundo-deben-llamar-dictador-al-gob

Of course the feckless EU, actually they are full of feck, are the last to understand this,

[Danube on iPad]

Been without WiFi allday. Just got itback. Gotts play catch-up.

[daddy]

On the excellent discussion on our out of control Federal Agencies 2 threads back, and particularly EPA "off-limits" mandates, it's worth remembering that the EPA just pre-emptively issued a ruling against Alaska's Pebble Mine project before the Pebble Project had ever even submitted a proposal for study. The EPA simply ginned up their own ideas of what they thought a Pebble proposal might look like and on that basis decided to nix the project.

American Thinker: EPA Studies and Preordained Conclusions

The (EPA) agency stated that they would be proceeding to take action under the Clean Water Act to pre-emptively halt action on the Pebble Mine project before permitting begins on the proposed copper, gold, and molybdenum extraction project. Essentially, they studied three mine scenarios, none of which would be able to be permitted under either the state of federal systems and found them unacceptable. No surprise, that.

So what do we have? We have government employees who claim to be scientists working closely with environmental activists (also largely funded via EPA grants) to create a document with predetermined conclusions which they then call “science.”

[Stephanie]

Annnnd... I just had another frigging call from some putz in NY insisting that I was 70 years old and didn't I want to take advantage of all the good stuff the government can do for me.

Maybe I should file a tax return for this Matrix me and see what goodies I can collect. If they can send 2,000 tax refunds to one address for years, I might be able to get away with it.

All I have to say is damn, I look good for a 70 year old!!

[Man Tran on iPhone]

Daddy,

Posting here so that it might get read.

My Mongolian Princess has a grandson who might be working with the Goldens in a few more years. Haven't seen the family in awhile. The #2 daughter is now in the L.A. basin finishing college. I expect she might snag a prosperous round-eye before she's done. She has the brains and looks to pull it off, if she chooses.

Gorgeous pix, BTW.

[Janet]

RORY REID: We believe in a country in which we are subject to laws and you can’t just ignore the laws we don’t like. I think clearly if state and local prosecutors look at this more closely, they’re going to find that he broke the law and he should be prosecuted….
**************************************
Senator Harry Reid - "Well, it's not over. We can't have an American people that violate the law and then just walk away from it. So it's not over," Reid said.

Boy the Reid family are real sticklers for obeying the law...except our immigration laws. And the EPA or IRS releasing private citizen info to leftist advocacy groups...that doesn't seem to bother them.
And the Dems don't seem to care if their Dem. state Attorney Generals "ignore the law". That is all great. The DOJ can "ignore the law" too.

[MarkO]

Reid wants to choose which members of "an American people" can violate the law without repercussion.

Truly, this invites insurrection.

[narciso]

Well we saw then Asst. Att Gen, Eric Holder, one week, 14 years ago, decided immigration law was preeminent, but just in one instance,

[daddy]

Jay Carney explains why the Boston Bombing Memorial Service at the White House today was off limits to the Press:

Reporter: Clearly a newsworthy anniversary, and do you think it was appropriate to have independent media coverage of the President marking that Anniversary?

Carney: We certainly think that the moment was important, but it is mostly important in Boston.

OK, I'll bite. Then why the hell does NBC have to go so far as to lie to maimed Boston Bombing victims to get them to appear on "Meet The Press"? Because they only car about it in Boston?

Then why did you guys give a damn about going to Gabby Gifford's Memorial services in Arizona?

[Jane on Ipad]

Between that Daddy, and Biden declaring the bombing was "worth it", it's been quite a day for this administration.

[Frau Turnvater Jahn]

daddy, the memorial in AZ should be for the six who died and not for Gabby who is (partially) still here with us.
Not that the press would ever write it that way.

[Frau Turnvater Jahn]

Janet sez "Boy the Reid family are real sticklers for obeying the law...except our immigration laws."

AND election laws.

[Stephanie]

And Cronyism laws.
And bribery laws.
And pedophile laws.

Allegedly.

[Frau Turnvater Jahn]

Stephanie, the yutes are afraid to talk.

[Sue]

Someone told me Harry Reid was a pedophile. He hasn't denied it so it much be true.

[Stephanie]

Yep, Sue.

Sure is quiet in here tonight. Must be a POI night.

[Happy, happy, joy, joy Ignatz]

POI, yes, but no Justified.

[narciso]

Yes, they have the Fargo knockoff;

Well at least they are not American rightwingers.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/15/world/al-qaeda-meeting-video/

[Captain Hate]

Well at least they are not American rightwingers.

After the bigmouths in the administration have blabbed about double agents, is it any surprise that they've all been purged or don't feel like the risk is worth it?

[narciso]

Alright they really let things get out of control, on tonight's PoI, the equivalent of letting the helicarriers fly to 3000 feet,

[Captain Hate]

Well they'd been moving in that direction for the last few episodes. I thought it was a reasonably coherent explication of the moral dilemmas of the machine unchained dealing with the implications of another machine that is obviously dangerous to it. I have no idea what the purpose of Root is these days because I'd have thought she'd have been the implementer if the machine wanted somebody snuffed.

[MaxB]

My Lord. Lewis B. Carroll, George Orwell, and Saul Alinsky all slip down the same rabbit hole and end up in the White House, 'splaining stuff.'

[Stephanie]

Max at 11:35

You forgot Butterfly McQueen:

"I don't know nuffin bout birthin no IRS probe, Bengazi, Fast and Furious etc."

[Danube on iPad]

They've won. The issue of how many people have signed up, their ages, and whether they were previously uninshured has now been so successfully obfuscated that the electorate will conclude that it's impossible to determine whether this thing is a success or a failure.

American healthcare for generations to come will be some variant of Obamacare. Access to care, and its quality, will slowly but steadily degrade, even as do real wages and the standard of living. The connection of these phenomena to the Democratic agenda will be tenuous enough that there will be no widespread rage and rebellion.

The nation will get precisely what it deserves to get.

[Threadkiller]

I don't think this list is comprehensive either.

You need a photo ID to:...

What is more important is what you can do with a Photoshop ID.

[Threadkiller]

Americans get what they deserve...

[Threadkiller]

http://weaselzippers.us/182844-biden-i-take-my-grandchildren-anywhere-they-want-to-go-each-year-and-stick-taxpayers-with-the-bill/

[285exp]

Megan could have saved some pixels and left out the "Is"