Proximate And Fundamental Causes Of The Border Crisis

Mary O'Grady of the WSJ tackles the border debacle (subscriber, but Google News sometimes sneaks by) and gets kudos from Cafe Hayek and Reason:

What Really Drove the Children North

Our appetite for drugs caused the violence that made life unbearable in much of Central America.

In a nation where it is not uncommon to hear the other side of the Rio Grande referred to as "South America," it is amusing to observe the recent wave of self-anointed experts in the U.S. opining authoritatively on the causes of child migration from Central America.

Some of these are talking heads of conservative punditry who seem to know zip about the region and show no interest in learning. They wing it, presumably because they believe their viewers and listeners will never know the truth and don't care. What matters is proving that the large number of unaccompanied minors piling up at the border is President Obama's fault for somehow signaling that they would not be turned back. The origins of the problem are deemed unimportant and the fate of the children gets even less attention.

Thank heaven for four-star Marine Corps Gen. John Kelly, who knows something about war and failed states and now heads the U.S. military's Southern Command, which keeps an eye on the region. He has spent time studying the issue and is speaking up. Conservatives may not like his conclusions, in which the U.S. bears significant responsibility, but it is hard to accuse a four-star of a "blame America first" attitude.

To make the "Obama did it" hypothesis work, it is necessary to defeat the claim that the migrants are fleeing intolerable violence. This has given rise to the oft-repeated line that "those countries" have always been very violent.

That is patently untrue. Central America is significantly more dangerous than it was before it became a magnet for rich and powerful drug capos. Back in the early 1990s, drugs from South America flowed through the Caribbean to the U.S.

Well, "always been very violent" covers a lot more history than is relevant; per UN statistics, the murder rate in Guatamale and El Salvador has been roughly flat for ten years. So why is the surge in unaccompoanied minors ocurring now, rather than two or five years or seven years ago?

But when a U.S. interdiction strategy in the Caribbean raised costs, trafficking shifted to land routes up the Central American isthmus and through Mexico. With Mexican President Felipe Calderón's war on the cartels, launched in 2007, the underworld gradually slithered toward the poorer, weaker neighboring countries. Venezuela, under Hugo Chávez, began facilitating the movement of cocaine from producing countries in the Andes to the U.S., also via Central America.

So by this history the relevant Central American countries have been on a downward spiral for seven years. Again, why the border surge now? And why all the reporting about immigrants surrendering to the Border Patrol and asking for their 'permiso'? Why the UN report that surveyed children held by the Border Patrol and delivered this:

Guatemala:

Sixty-two percent of the children did not mention serious harm as a reason for leaving. Eighty-four percent of the children shared hopes for family reunification, better opportunities for work or study, or helping their families as a reason for coming to the U.S.

Honduras:

Forty-three percent of the Honduran children did not mention serious harm as a reason for leaving. Twenty-one percent of the children discussed situations of deprivation. Similar to the children from Guatemala, 80% of the Honduran children shared their hopes for family reunification, better opportunities to work or study, or to help their families as a reason for leaving, but very few gave one of these as the only reason.

I am in complete agreement that our War on Drugs is a disaster that has been crushing South and Central America for decades and ought to be dramatically reimagined ('Mend it, don't end it' is probably the politically expedient catchphrase we are looking for). But as to why the surge is happening now, I have no doubt that Obama's imaginative and compassionate interpretation of the law is encouraging people to come north and hope to benefit from an amnesty, a DREAM II, or something similar.

Our war on drugs has created a flammable (and untenable) situation to our south; Obama is throwing matches. I blame Obama for the current flames, but a real, long-term solution requires a redirection of our drug war as a starting point. (And don't ask about the jobs magnet...)

Comments

[Beasts of England]

Very nice, Some Guy!

[Some Guy]

I particularly like the author's use of "Gagger Counters" and "isodopes"

[narciso]

that debunking of Dylan Davies seems more and more suspicious, in retrospect;

http://therightscoop.com/unbelievable-state-dept-warned-that-terrorists-moved-in-next-door-to-benghazi-consulate-months-before-attack/

[Ignatz]

Let's not forget, earlier in the day we found out; IRS: Hey, maybe we do have our e-mail backups.
It's the Keystone NKVD.

[Some Guy]

Elijah Cummings is such a partisan hack, he gives other partisan hacks a bad name.

[Stephanie]

A woman was playing golf when she took a big swing and fell.

The party waiting behind her was a group from Washington , DC that included Barack Obama.

Barack quickly stepped forward and helped her to her feet.

She thanked him and started to leave, when he said, "I'm Barack Obama and I hope you'll vote Democratic in the next election.

She laughed and quickly said, "I fell on my ass, not my head."

[narciso]

You were saying something about Foggy Bottom's utter uselessness, Captain

http://chasfreeman.net/obamas-foreign-policy-and-the-future-of-the-middle-east/

[Some Guy]

Stephanie LOL.

But I knew it was a joke at "Barack quickly stepped forward and helped her to her feet."

[Captain Hate]

It must have been on a day ending in "Y" narc. Btw, Lurch would say that Chas Freeman is just another of those naysayers who never want to give 404 credit for all his Middle East success.

[Beasts of England]

Brava, Steph!

[James D.]

Independent failure at each possible point across so many nodes of interest is as likely as my installment as galactic emperor next Tuesday.

Well, just in case it does happen, henry, let me be the first to extend my congratulations on your coronation. And I hope you'll consider me for a position in your administration. I think I'd be great at crushing your enemies and enforcing your reign of terror. Or at least enthusiastic about it!

[henry]

"reign of terror"

That sounds a lot more fun than golf! Plasma rifles for all JOM people. ; )

[Some Guy]

Independent failure at each possible point across so many nodes of interest is as likely as my installment as galactic emperor next Tuesday.

I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords!

[miss Marple]

Heh, O'Reilly just showed a poll that said 53% of Americans think that space aliens living among us is a real possibility.

[narciso]

Yes, that would be the sum of it, a retainer of Arabia, and the PLA, the former finances
the jihad in Syria, the latter could bankroll
a insurgency in the Kingdom

[glasater]

OT

Just found out I am blocked on twitter by @BarackObama

Ha!

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

from Sultan Knish about Israel...but it is true of the left & conservatives too.

"When you listen to the threats and taunts of those who hate you, you give them power over yourself. If you try to accommodate your behavior to gain their favor, their outpouring of hate for you will only grow. It is not your behavior they hate, it is you. By showing weakness, you invite attack. By giving your enemies power over you, all that you accomplish is to drive them into a feeding frenzy at your vulnerability."

http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-noose-around-israels-neck.html

[Beasts of England]

henry hasn't been our new galactic emperor for an hour and already reveals his hatred of golf? I'm guessing mandatory soccer is on the horizon. Well, at least we'll have lots of beer. Could be worse...

[Ignatz]

I would like to float my name as Minister of Ordnance, either with or without portfolio, but definitely with an M2 Browning.

[narciso]

well if they are Formicss, the onslaught that led to the events in Ender's Game, I don't see an amicable resolutionm

[Jim Miller]

Believe it or not, here in the Seattle area people are actually admitting that they aren't happy about the way Obama's latest fund-raising raid is disrupting traffic.

FWIW, this is perhaps the worst week he could visit, since they are working on the main east=west route, I-90.

Some people, anyway. (Though I have to admit that I haven't seen any evidence that this latest inconvenience is causing them to revise their opinions of the man.)

[henry]

Beasts, nothing mandatory. As long as I don't have to play golf, others can. Nerd note: today is this Tuesday. In one week, "next Tuesday," we find out about the emperor thing. That is assuming the aliens tell us about it, they're sneaky entities.

[Jane]

Glas, you are my idol! I wouldn't even dare look to see if I'm blocked.

[Ignatz]

Hey, this Univision guy is on to something; "No government should be in the business of deporting children."
How bout we send one whiny, compassionate adult La Raza type to Honduras for every illegal minor who gets to stay? Surely they wouldn't mind sacrificing for the innocents and we would have to be getting the better of the trade even if the brats turned into MS-13 gangsters.

[Jane]

Wait! I missed the Emperor thing. What can I be? (bartender hint hint)

[Beasts of England]

The time-space continuum is just another construct of privileged phallocentric hegemony, henry...

[narciso]

the guild navigators will arrive on Wednesday.

[Jim Miller]

FWIW, last time I looked, illegal drug use -- with the considerable exception of marijuana -- had declined about fifty percent from its highs back in the 1980s.

From this I draw two conclusions:

1. This decline tends to undermine O'Grady's conclusion, and support Maguire's. A bit, since she does say that there has been a shift in the countries supplying us.

2. Those who say, flatly, that the war on drugs has failed should, at least, discuss that decline.

(Before anyone jumps to conclusions, I can think of reasons for that decline other than the war on drugs -- but I think it almost certain that the war on drugs in at least one of the reasons for the decline.)

There is one area where the decline has had large, observable good effects. When crack use was at its peak, life expectancy for black males actually declined, thanks to drug overdoses and street wafare.

[Rob Crawford]

No government should be in the business of deporting children.

Why didn't they stop in Mexico, then?

[Ignatz]

Madeleine Albright: Hamas putting civilians in line of fire hurts Israel’s ‘moral authority’
Not all owls are wise.

[Rob Crawford]

Madeleine Albright: Hamas putting civilians in line of fire hurts Israel’s ‘moral authority’

That's not the way that works. That's not the way it's ever worked. Did any journalist call her on this idiocy, or did they all just nod stupidly?

Albright needs to go dance with Junior in NorK. And never come back.

[ZZMike]

The bottom line is, refugees are people like Cambodians getting away from Pol Pot, Vietnamese getting away from Ho Chi Minh &c, Cubans getting away from Castro,....

And they didn't send their children ahead.

More than that, the real refugees who came here started working and building themselves a new life.

[jimmyk]

Re Albright, I guess it's time to bring out this oldie but goodie:

[Stephanie]

Plasma rifles for all JOM people. ; )

Pfft. I want a rail gun. And Iron Man.

[Threadkiller]

Heh, O'Reilly just showed a poll that said 53% of Americans think that space aliens living among us is a real possibility.

Is this the poll he extrapolated that diddy from?

Twenty percent (20%) of Americans believe in the theory that a UFO carrying space aliens on board crashed near Roswell, New Mexico in 1947, and a sizable 33% more are not sure. Fewer than half (47%) reject that theory.

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/general_lifestyle/july_2014/have_we_got_a_conspiracy_for_you_9_11_jfk_obama_s_citizenship

I wonder why he would want to discredit the people who took the poll?

Could it be because the response to the citizenship question makes him look like the idiot he is?

[rich@gmu]

>>>the war on drugs -- but I think it almost certain that the war on drugs in at least one of the reasons for the decline<<<

so it is not only the monetary risks, it is the non monetary risks that can influence drug use (and abuse).

The thing I don't quite understand in the libertarians argument (ie it is US demand which drives the problem)... is why is it the producing counties are always basketcases in a slide towards disaster? Are there no drug addicts or drug problems in Central America? It seems like a Keynesian argument. fwiw

[rich@gmu]

and I'm going to need a position in the new galactic order that Henry is going to install.

[narciso]

the problem is many of those countries had one crop or other commodity economies, subject to variable swings, Bolivia, tin, Colombia cotton,

[miss Marple]

TK,

Full poll answers were shown. O'Reilly pointed out that the yes and unsure groups were those who thought it was a possibility.

No big deal. I just thought it was funny that the story came on right when Henry was talking about being Intergalactic Emperor.

[Captain Hate]

Not at Albright.

[Threadkiller]

I caught the humor, MM.

I still think O'Reilly is an idiot.

[Stephanie]

All Hail Ming!

[Captain Hate]

I still think O'Reilly is an idiot.

You have a lot of history on your side.

[Beasts of England]

I've already expended all my pro-legalization comments today. I won't have anymore until henry installs me as Vice Underlord of Hookers & Blow.

[miss Marple]

Night, all.

[rich@gmu]

narciso-

at first blush I'd brainstorm these as the issues:

1. Marxian type land reforms which subdivide quality agricultural land into ever smaller, less profitable plots farmed by those not capable of growing much of anything.

2. Byzantine and corrupt local administration.

3.Youth bulge.

4. Corrupt national governments that see the US as an opportunity for Lebensraum ... a winner: they have a population which can influence both the US Federal government and state governments; they export people which they would have to otherwise satisfy; a number of those in the US send back remittances.

fwiw.

[Stephanie]

The Georgia races tonight are interesting. A lot closer than anyone expected.

So far:

JACK KINGSTON 49.40% 227,328
DAVID A. PERDUE 50.60% 232,814
460,142

[Threadkiller]

Here is the segment:

http://youtu.be/e0Jp9sUT5pM

And here is the true/false question
"Okay, a UFO with space aliens on board crashed near Roswell, New Mexico in 1947."

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/questions/july_2014/questions_conspiracy_theories_july_16_17

[narciso]

Yes, issues like that, were what drove Vargas Llosa's quixotic presidential campaign, nearly a quarter century ago, Fujimori ultimately won that campaign, and the chance for real reform
was forestalled, in favor of a crony driven
neoliberalism.

[Threadkiller]

O'Reilly points to his notes as if he is attempting to get the wording of the question correct.

Then he sets the stage for a question that wasn't asked.

[A remarkable sight, well worth the long detour to view.]

Hah, Galactic Emperor, yeah of this tiny little out of the way corner of the Universe. The only thing of note to tourists in the whole galaxy is a race of critters on one planet industriously restoring otherwise permanently lost plant food to the atmosphere.

[Eric in Boise]

Did anyone else look at that picture of M. Halfbright and think "Hillary in (x) years."?

The inner beauty of prog women just shines on through.

See Warren, Elizabeth.

[narciso]

it's turtles all the way down:

https://twitter.com/joshuafoust/status/491602017228713984

[Ignatz]

Place obligatory Barbara Mikulski reference here__________.

[Beasts of England]

Nice looking slab of real estate the Obamas have escrowed out in the land of JOMers. $4.25M looks like a fair price for that kinda weather and amenities. Good for them. At least they're planning on vacating Pennsylvania Avenue! ;)

[Jim Miller]

For those who are wondering about the chances of all those hard drive failures in Lerner's group happening by accident, I just linked to an app that calculates the odds for you. (And lets you experiment with the parameters.)

[Ignatz]

Just out of curiosity, did Perdue promise a chicken in every pot, or perhaps, given societal trends, some pot in every chicken?

[rich@gmu]

Posted by: Beasts of England | July 22, 2014 at 10:30 PM-

ahhh, the bright side.

Jim-

is it billions-to-one? not only her but a bunch of lackeys and toadies she was in communications with ...

#itwasonly18minutes

[Jane on Ipad]

I think Obama is hoping to have a really hard time when he no longer gets to command that everyone love him. Twill be a lonely life in that big house.

[narciso]

he's a discount store magnate,

[rich@gmu]

damn 1 in 740,246,262,612 by using his default settings.

someone at the IRS ought to play powerball tomorrow night.

[Jim Miller]

rich - It's more fun if you do the calculation yourself. Click on my name to get to my post; click on probabilities to get to the app, and then use either the default numbers (I didn't), or enter your own.

[narciso]

I know, shocker also a contrast to quarterbright, and Hillary

http://therightscoop.com/you-wont-believe-what-sarah-palin-was-caught-doing/

[Jim Miller]

Sorry for the crossed comments.

One point he (and I) didn't mention: It is likely that hard drives have become more reliable since 2007. So you can experiment with that number, too.

[Beasts of England]

I believe he's a former CEO of Dollar General, Ig.

[Stephanie]

The tea party is dead.

From the AJC:

Former state Sen. Barry Loudermilk convincingly defeated former U.S. Rep. Bob Barr Tuesday in their bruising Republican primary runoff for the Atlanta area’s 11th Congressional District seat.

Loudermilk, who campaigned with strong support from tea party groups, will head to Washington as no Democrats have gotten on the ballot for the 11th District, which covers all of Bartow and Cherokee counties and parts of Cobb and Fulton counties.

Also Tuesday evening, Jody Hice, a former Baptist minister who ran with substantial tea party backing, bested Jackson trucking company executive Mike Collins in the GOP primary runoff for Georgia’s 10th Congressional District, a vast territory that stretches from eastern Gwinnett County to the Savannah River.

[rich@gmu]

he was making a joke about Perdue and chicken ... a brand of chicken and turkey, Perdue Farms.

Jim-

>>>Our tool's results indicate the probability of the events in question occurring by purely random chance. If you want to find the odds that IRS employees deliberately targeted President Barack Obama's political opposition and have since attempted to cover up evidence of their unlawful conduct, just subtract the percentage odds above from 100% to find the odds of that.... <<<

Yep, via the link. Pretty much gets it here.

Could someone have introduced some sort of virus or other type of ew technique to zap a group of hard drives in a building?

[sbw]

rse, thanks for the pointer.

I'll look at it tomorrow . . . after I spend an hour in a class of 7th graders seeing if, explaining individuals, journalism and society to them, I can make it accessible to them.

[Stephanie]

Correct BoE. Perdue and Kingston, either was acceptable.

Bob Barr getting his ass kicked was not surprising as he's gone kinda nutty.

Interestingly, most of the folks with the (I) after their name lost. Both sides of the aisle. Verrry interesting.

[narciso]

they could have set off an EMP generator and it would be less suspicious;

you know they leave out the whole murder at the fundraiser bit;

http://popcultureblog.dallasnews.com/2014/07/true-blood-characters-use-explicit-language-to-describe-texas-republicans-ted-cruz-supporters.html/

[Eric in Boise]

Twill be a lonely life in that big house.

Jane, I'm not sure he'll be there much. He'll be jetting around the world, giving speeches for hundreds of thousands per pop, all with the undying adoration of the world press.

If you think the Clintons are disgusting insufferable grifters, wait 'till you see Barky and Mooch ante White House.

[Captain Hate]

Bob Barr getting his ass kicked was not surprising as he's gone kinda nutty.

Not a long journey by my memory; maybe just beyond the driveway.

[Stephanie]

And when the president brought up the media as partly to blame, he remarked, “Whatever they’re reporting about, usually I know.”

If that line strikes you as odd, it’s probably because a number of times, in reaction to a variety of different scandals, the president or people speaking for him said he learned about these scandals in the news.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/obama-i-dont-watch-much-news-whatever-theyre-reporting-about-usually-i-know/

Fookin loony.

[Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet]

I believe that Perdue and Kingston had made their peace before tonight's results and pledged support for the winner. Somewhat unlike Mississippi.

My former law partner and good friend was elected Superior Court Judge for Fulton County tonight as well.

All in all all a pretty good night.

[Stephanie]

The numbers who turned out and voted in the primary as reps v as dems is astonishing. In some districts it's a 4 to 1 margin.

[narciso]

this fits my theory of Doha as 'Kevin Bacon' in all of the events from Syria to Suffolk;

http://www.israelvideonetwork.com/obama-signs-11-billion-arms-deal-with-hamass-greatest-ally

[glasater]

Jane-

It was offered in one of the random twitter "follow" side bars and showed I was blocked by 0. Have not a clue why that would show up but it did :)

[Stephanie]

Kingston's facebook post:

From the bottom of my heart, thank you for your support over the course of this campaign.

I called David Perdue to congratulate him and offer my support for his campaign in the General Election. We need to unite to defeat Nunn in November.

The fight for conservative values is not over.

[Captain Hate]

I hope you're sitting down for this shocker:

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2014/07/22/zbigniew-blames-disgustingly-destructive-netanyahu

[narciso]

I got my fainting couch out, after the Huntress
was caught speeding:

quarterbright was his protege in the NSC in the Carter administration,

[rich@gmu]

good thing I cleaned off the fainting couch for that.

[rich@gmu]

lol...

[Stephanie]

Of all the places I never thought to be mentioned, HBO’s True Blood vampire show would have to be near the top of the list. Sunday night, they aired a misogynist and profanity-ridden episode where Texas Republicans are murdered attending a “Ted Cruz fundraiser.”

Well, I’m sorry to have lost the vampire vote, but am astonished (and amused) that HBO is suggesting that hard-core leftists are blood-sucking fiends….

https://www.facebook.com/tedcruzpage/posts/10152587281057464

[narciso]

Actually my paisan, seems to miss the point, it wasn't explicit in Charlaine Harris's telling, but Alan Ball has made the vampire the victim, like a certain overrepresented minority, and consequently in their eyes,
'by any means necessary'

[Ignatz]

Bloodsucking fiends now wear the white hats in lalaland.

[Neo]

The China-US sorpasso is looming. I do not mean the much-exaggerated moment when China's GDP will overtake America's GDP -- which may not happen in the lifetime of anybody reading this blog post -- as China slows to more pedestrian growth rates (an objective of premier Li Keqiang.)

The sorpasso may instead be the ominous moment when China's debt ratios overtake the arch-debtor itself.

I had presumed that this inflection point was still a very long way off, but a new report from Stephen Green at Standard Chartered argues that China's aggregate debt level has reached 251 per cent of GDP, as of June.

LUN

[narciso]

Up till now, Cruz, was only associated with some shady financiers in a portrairon 'the Black List' while the Huntress was depicted
as being President during a zombie plague on 'Supernatural' and summoning an invasion of space nazis in 'Iron Sky;

[Ignatz]

Speaking of blood sucking fiends; pretty sure this guy

is the King of the Vampires henchman in The Strain.

[Ignatz]

China = Japan, only China is blowing itself up at the equivalent of Japan in 1959 instead of 1989.

[Ignatz]

Time for POI.

[Stephanie]

beasts:

http://www.golfdigest.com/blogs/the-loop/2014/07/golf-music-video-queen-bohemian-rhapsody.html

[Neo]

Thomas the Tank Engine had to shut the hell up to save children everywhere

Classism, sexism, anti-environmentalism bordering on racism: any parent who discovered these hidden lessons will be glad the show's star just quit

For the record, all the "villains" on Thomas and Friends are the dirty diesel engines. I'd like to think there was a good environmental message in there, but when the good engines pump out white smoke and the bad engines pump out black smoke -- and they are all pumping out smoke -- it's not hard to make the leap into the race territory.

Who knew ?

[narciso]

Actually he looks better than Zbig, if you mean Palmer, he always looked preternally
creepy.

[Stephanie]

What happened to the IT Managers?

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/what-happened-irs-it-asset-management-team_796839.html

Geeks asking questions.

[narciso]

they were the ones previously watching Snowden,

you know the Strigoi, are blood thirsty ghouls with stingers, but they don't sell us this carp

[Stephanie]

As the owner of about $2K in Thomas the Tank Engine track, trains, etc, that article is hilarious. That TtTE stuff was bought for my daughter.

I blame ismists who are sanctimonious asshats for the decline of the civilization. They are worse than the imams who see problems with squash and cucumbers that they may impart impure thoughts to muslims. Those purporting to live in the 21st century should know better.

Long Live Sir Topham Hatt!

[narciso]

Brainslug is going to starve poor thing:

http://hotair.com/archives/2014/07/22/sally-kohn-how-can-israel-supporters-argue-the-idfs-violence-is-justified-but-hamas-isnt/

[Stephanie]

Charles Vonderheid is an idiot and should be removed from contact with kids of any age.

http://www.kcci.com/news/officer-points-gun-at-boy-scout-at-canadian-border/27078396#!bkfWZa

Charles Vonderheid with the Mid-Iowa Council Boy Scouts of America said he thinks that it was important for scouts to learn about laws on the trip.

“We want to make sure they follow the rules. A Scout is a good citizen,” he said. “It would be a great lesson in civics for that young man and that troop.”

[narciso]

maybe there's ergot in the corn.

[Stephanie]

Interesting if true...

http://www.conservativeinfidel.com/obama/msnbc-anchor-resigns-admits-spreading-lies-behalf-obama/