Some Borderline Statistical Analysis

Tom K. Wong at the Center for American Progress puts on his thinking cap and tries to resuscitate Team Obama's claim that the current crisis on our southern border is not due to Obama's slack deportation policy. I certainly appreciate the effort (and the links to some data) since I had a passing thought to attempt something similar myself.

However... as analysis, the CAP piece fall short. It succeeds in demonstrating the unremarkable conclusion that children are more inclined to flee dangerous countries than safe ones. But why the border influx now, as opposed to two, five, or seven years ago? Presumably something has changed; Team Obama claims it is the level of violence, and his critics insist it is US policy.

So, is it the level of violence in the key Central American countries that has changed? CAP does not address that point, but we get a hint from the UN figures on national homicide rates to which they link. This is from "Homicide counts and rates, time series 2000-2012":

My sophisticated eyeballometric assessment is that the homicide rate in El Salvador spiked in 2005 from about 40 (per 100,000) to about the mid-60's and was roughly steady there until falling back to the 40's in 2012 (if we can even believe these numbers...). That hardly suggests that children emigrating from El Salvador should have surged in 2013 or 2014. However, we can add this from a recent State Department travel warning:

Although Salvadoran police statistics show a decrease in annual homicides during 2012 and 2013, the homicide rate has been rising steadily since August 2013.  From mid-February through April 2014, El Salvador has experienced an average of almost 10 people killed per day - the highest homicide rate since 2011.

Guatemala has been roughly stable in the mid 30's (per 100,000) to low 40's for years, which is also inconsistent with a recent surge in violence-motivated emigration.

Honduras, on the other hand, is spiraling from bad to worse: the homicide rate was in the 50's or 60's until 2008, after which it has spiked into the 90's as of 2012. However, this travel advisory from the State Department is interesting - although they note that the violence has been extreme for years, they also estimate a homicide rate of 79 in 2013, down a bit from the 2012 UN figure (which may or may not be from comparable sources).

Now an obvious caveat is that these numbers end in 2012, so maybe things really have gotten worse recently. Per the FTI Consulting report cited by CAP, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras are all violent with an unfavorable trend, which gives Team Obama a whiff of support. Whether their data is more current than the UN figures is not clear.

The Congressional Research Service had a helpful report outlining the legal issues and the scope of the immigration problem over time. This picture is worth a thousand words:

The surge from the three Central American countries clearly began in 2012 and has escalated dramatically. June 15 2012 was when Obama exerted his executive authority (and prosecutorial discretion) to implement his version of the DREAM Act.

Well. There is no reason that unaccompanied children can't both be fleeing violence and hoping to benefit from a new and relaxed attitude towards law enforcement in the US. But since even Team Obama seems to have abandoned the notion that this is all about Central American violence (leaving the Times editors to hold the fort alone) I am going to stick with the idea that if newly arrived illegals are running towards the Border Patrol and asking for their permiso, they have an idea that our enforcement is lax.

I should also note that the new emerging theme is to Blame Bush for an anti-trafficking law passed in late 2008 with overwhelming bipartisan support (and through a Dem-controlled Congress).

Comments

[rse]

narciso-you had mentioned something about moving to volusia. You might want to read this.

http://www.myregion.org/clientuploads/pdfs/whatarewedoing.pdf

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Fun Fact-- ChiTown has a murder rate of about 50/100,000, so send all of the Central American kiddies to Rahm's ChiTown and they'll feel right at home.

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

NK,

I am taking Germany and their aerial game. I think without Neymar, Jr. Brazil is a "bridge to far".

[Extraneus]

Parents let their children "flee" violence by giving them a map and a compass, telling them to cross two international borders (one with tight security) and walk over 1,000 miles of mostly desert, in the summer, in the hope that they will ultimately reach the safe haven of the United States. Alone.

They do this all without a deal having been struck between the US and Mexican governments to allow this and assist the migrant "children" along the way.

Right.

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

What a game. Only 10 minutes in and I am already on my 2nd Caipirinha:)

Goooooooaaaaaal! Muller! Deutchland 1- Country of the Future 0

[narciso]

Add to that, this happened under Pena Nieto, the one with the hot telenovelas soap star wife, but more importantly, the cartel's preferred candidate.

At least one of the countries of origin, Honduras was subject to a Fast and Furious
spinoff operation,

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

JiB-- Germany SHOULD win, but there is always the FIFA thumb on the scale. I've seen 3 of Brasil's games, they are pedestrian IMO. They are not the BRASIL of my yute in the 70s.

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

Klose! Gooooaaaal! New WC record. Passes Rinaldo. Guy has been in 4 WC's and still can score. Brazil has no defense. Neymar would only make a difference in keeping the ball away from the Germans but not for long.

Precision and discipline versus romanticism and emotion.

Now its 3-0 on a beauty by Kroos. Oscar devastaed. Nation goes into catonic misery.

TCFAC.

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

Geezus. Now 4-0. A nation cries. I am crying. Let it be competitive for God's sake.

[Stephanie tortoise not the hare]

Brazil is way outclassed so far. Expect the favelas to explode tonight.

4 - 0

This is gonna be embarrassing. Germany is gonna have to go to one touch ball to keep from a full rout.

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

Good. Now I can go to the Prime Rib Dinner tonight instead of wasting my time waiting for a comeback. 5-0 Germany. Too bad there is no mercy rule in soccer.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Brasil 0 - 4 Germany in 26 minutes? Embarassing. This isn't pedestrian, this is bad.

[James D.]

For the sake of his family, I hope there are police watching the home of the Brazilian goalie.

If it hasn't been burned down already...

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

0-5 inside 30 minutes? As Stephanie said, the hilltops of Rio and the Slumburbs of Sao Paulo will explode tonight. BILLIONS FOR THIS?!

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

Should have been 6-0 but the ref didn't call the handball on Kroos' hat trick kick.

But it gives me great pleasure to bid David Luiz adieu to PSG - you traitor. Only NK knows how I speak:)

[Stephanie tortoise not the hare]

No there's not JiB, but the hubs would have his girls go to two touch or one touch once the score got out of hand. No sense in demoralizing a girl's team in the 80s when they were just starting to build the game.

[narciso]

what does one drink when they all ready 5 down, thirty minutes in ,caipirinha's don't quite fit the bill

[GMax]

OK who was it that took Brazil again? DOT?

This is what November is going to look like. Brazil = Democrats

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Well JiB, CFC can be philosophical and take comfort in the knowledge of Daveed helping them win the BPL trophy before selling himself to PSG... wait.... what? who won the BPL this spring?

[GMax]

Too much Samba absolutely no discipline in the defensive third.

Brazil should refuse to vacate to start the 2nd Half.

[Stephanie]

narciso, venom? Zombie juice? There are a large number of poisonous snakes in the Amazon.

Germany is playing keep away now to run out the clock and keep it from being a sham win. They'll come out in the 2nd half and score a few more and go into keep away again. Not to taxing and keeps them from being exhausted for the next game.

[Dave (in MA)]

I don't follow soccer too closely. What time is the referee beheading?

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

However, I take great, make that ebullient, satisfaction in watching the MSM (that includes ESPN and SI) becoming tongue-tied in how to explain this slaughter or as the Germans call it "ein Slaag". The way they pictured Brazil in all the commentary was "unbeatable", "a way of life", "way out of the ghettos", "world class".

Superlatives have consequences. Now lets thumb through the thesarsus for all the linguistic rememdies.

[Stephanie]

Brazil is getting smoked better than the ribs currently in the smoker. ;)

[Stephanie]

Drudge already has a blurb up:

'Germany destroys Brazil at World Cup developing...'

LULZ.

[Dave (in MA)]

Not really OT because bacon.

--
Retweeted by Instapundit.com
Kristi Hays ‏@KHays13 13m
@SonnyBunch FACT: Every failed, vacant cupcake store is an opportunity for a prosperous, full bacon store. #baconfuckyeah

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

BTW, OT: The law Bush signed in 2008 was a law passed by the Clinton empire back in 98 and renewed every 2 years, IIRC. God forbid we would ever blame Clinton for anything other than Hillary.

[Stephanie]

Brazil draw straws to see who would take the pitch for the 2nd half?

Final score guess 7 - 0...

[Stephanie tortoise not the hare]

Brazil look better than the first half. Maybe 6 - 1 as a score.

[Stephanie tortoise not the hare]

Archdiocese of San Bernardino asking parishioners to house illegals and get reimbursed from the church and not to alert the media.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/07/shock-report-churches-ask-parishioners-to-shelter-illegals-in-their-home-not-to-tell-media-video/#disqus_thread

[Dave (in MA)]

I'm guessing that there are going to be a lot of dirty office buildings tomorrow morning.

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

Steph,

Getting closer. 6-0.

Germans embarrass another nation. Belgium feels some relief.

[Stephanie tortoise not the hare]

6 - 0

Entire sequence was two touch except the last. Germany's just playing with their food, now.

[Rick B]

BOzo must have put money down on Brazil.

[DrJ]

Winning!

Afghanistan's 13-year experiment with democracy threatened to unravel Tuesday as Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah —who appeared to have lost the country's runoff election, according to preliminary results—claimed victory and contemplated the formation of his own government amid U.S. warnings to await a probe of the vote.

"There is no doubt we are the winners of this election. We will not allow a fraudulent government for a day," Mr. Abdullah told supporters during a boisterous midday rally in Kabul. He said he would decide within a few days whether to form his own government.

[Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet]

We turned the channel after 2-0. Anyone garbed in gold and green leaving the stands? Brazil lost all hope when Neymar was injured. German teamwork is too good.

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

Germany 1 - USA 0

Germany 1 - Begium 0

Germany 6 - Brazil 0

Feel better?

[Stephanie tortoise not the hare]

I'll give the Brazilian fans some credit, they aren't leaving yet. Of course when the ticket costs what $150? You want to get your money's worth.

They did whistle (boo) Fred on his departure, though.

Worse defeat for 94 years.

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

Addenda:

Germany 7 - Brazil 0

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

It's 7-0.

Stephanie needs to avoid witch hunts for a while.

[Stephanie tortoise not the hare]

SEVEN!!!

So much for GAA for that keeper.

Btw I've really enjoyed this combo of announcers for the tournament. Brazil is all "sixes and sevens" loved it.

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

Engineers versus Artists. Now you know the results.

[narciso]

Abdallah's getting a little whiny in my opinion, he complained about Karzai, five years ago, he was Galbraith's stalking horse,
then, and now he complains about Ghani, whose running mate is General Dostum, the first rule of Afghan fight club, is don't complain about Dostum,

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

and Daveed Luiz disgraces himself taking a swing at Muller. CFC and LFC helped themselves by getting rid of Suarez and Luiz for piles of money. The supporters of those clubs deserve more than those guys.

[Stephanie tortoise not the hare]

7 - 1.

Come on Dover! Oh who the hell am I kidding?!?!

[MarkO]

Black Sox?

[GMax]

So who is more incompetent, Zero or the Brazilian back four?

[Stephanie tortoise not the hare]

Zero. Brazil individually are competent but collectively disorganized. Zero is individually incompetent and collectively disorganized.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

'sixes and sevens' has an ancient British football pedigree to describe a disorganized defense. Like most Brit idioms it has a vague origin. Being a musical comedy guy* I know the expression from Gilbert & Sullivan and that thief Andrew Lloyd Webber in Evita.
*Not that there's anything wrong with that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At_sixes_and_sevens

[MarkO]

The boy from Brasil on ESPN had it right. After the second goal, Brasil knew the match was over. Germany simply continued to play hard and Brasil, not.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Gilberto Silva on ESPN?

[Extraneus]

Still no proof that anybody in Elizabeth Warren's family has ever ridden an Indian http://t.co/bLy0SKLf

— David Burge (@iowahawkblog) August 19, 2012

Check out the pic.

[Jack is Back! (In the USA)]

Off to a big King slice of Prime Rib. Then when I get back I will put on Beth Cavalho to remember the day.

[Stephanie tortoise not the hare]

Plus, NK, Austin Powers used it. :)

As did Agatha Christie.

I love that idiom.

There is crying in samba football evidently. Way to keep up the machismo image in South America. NOT.

[Porchlight]

The boy from Brasil on ESPN had it right. After the second goal, Brasil knew the match was over. Germany simply continued to play hard and Brasil, not.

MarkO, if that's the case, Brazil deserved to be defeated in that fashion.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Michael Ballack is probably yucking it up. He's probably going 'Deutschland Uber Alles" and guarantying they'll roll over Holland... again, just like 1940 and 1974 -- with Panzers in 1940 and Beckenbauer and Muller in '74..

[MarkO]

This is a tough futbol crowd.

[Extraneus]

(Indian is a motorcycle brand, btw.)

[pagar]

If you think Brazil is doing badly, consider how this bunch is doing.

http://weaselzippers.us/192609-white-house-on-flood-of-illegals-were-seeing-the-benefit-of-obamas-border-security-investment-right-now/

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/07/un-urges-us-to-accept-thousands-of-illegal-immigrants-from-central-america/#disqus_thread

[Stephanie tortoise not the hare]

I did get one thing wrong about the score - I figured Klose would get a second half goal to cement the record.

[DrJ]

Uber

*ahem* "Ueber" -- damn those nasty umlauts!

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Speaking of Indian motorcycles...
Here's a great little movie - The World's Fastest Indian

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0412080/

Starring Anthony Hopkins. It is very good.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

DrJ@6:11

Heh--

umlauts? I only speak 2 languages... english and bad english.

[Patriot4Freedom]

Brazil = World class whipping

Brazil plays "The UGLY Game"

Brazil . . . "They just aren't that good."
(to paraphrase the noted MarkO)

[Captain Hate]

This is a tough futbol crowd.

Unpossible.

Little bit late to the party, wouldn't you say?

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/washington/journalists-accuse-white-house-politically-driven-suppression-news/132248

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

a bit on the movie - "The life story of New Zealander Burt Munro, who spent years building a 1920 Indian motorcycle -- a bike which helped him set the land-speed world record at Utah's Bonneville Salt Flats in 1967."

[narciso]

'welcome to the party, pal, have a few beers'

[Jane]

I really want to get the UN out of this country.

[GMax]

Rasmussen asked a interesting question. Is it likely that the Republicans control the Senate.

54% highly likely
29% not very likely

Now you know what idiots like Dana are writing nonsense, like Zero losing the Senate will be a win. Sure it will. Then a whole bunch of bottled up yet quite popular legislation will be voted out, and Zero will either sign or become a pariah. And probably make it impossible for the Democrats to take the WH in 16 reguardless of the nominees. Not the mention the spectacle of scared straight Democrats voting to override some vetos...

[GMax]

Was it Iowahawk who wrote the caption to the Lizzy Warren photo on a stationary motorcycle? I think the caption was :

Still no evidence that anyone in the Warren clan ever rode an Indian...

[Threadkiller]

Janet, that is an outstanding movie.

[Miss Marple]

New grocery opened today as the grocery wars heat up in my area. It is called Fresh Thyme Farmers market, and I saw no evidence of any farmers. Worst salsa (from their deli) I have ever had, and that includes the pseudo salsa included in Oscar Meyer Lunchables! Tasted like catsup with some diced onions. No evidence of cilantro or peppers or anything that would define it as salsa. The Italian bread from their bakery turned out to be sourdough due tomislabeleing.

I suppose I might go there for produce. Otherwise, too much loud music, too many weird organic brands, and I am now mistrustful of their deli.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

DD and the other Prog trolls have their marching orders:

http://hotair.com/archives/2014/07/08/senate-dems-introduce-bill-that-would-override-hobby-lobby-ruling/

[Miss Marple]

NK, That bill will never pass the House, and I am not sure if it would pass the Senate, given the election coming up in many red states.

I don't think Mary Landrieu would vote for it, for example.

[Rick B]

"I really want to get the UN out of this country galaxy."

There. That's better. I'm having trouble discerning why I should be interested in problematic statistics which should have no bearing on Los Gorditos problem. How are Los Gorditos different than the Haitians sent back to their own little slice of hell? Do residents of Joburg, with a murder rate higher than even Chicago, deserve a free pass in? How about the hundreds of thousands of Libyans and Syrian displaced by the murderous Clinton/Obama Arab Spring fiasco? Free passes?

If so, what about the millions of African children facing slow death by malaria due to the idiotic ban on DDT? Does the fact that the murderer is the UN constitute sufficient reason to keep them penned up waiting to die or should they qualify for a free pass?

[Threadkiller]

Hasn't Drudge been told that this is fruitless?

DRUDGE POLL: Staggering 71% say Obama must be IMPEACHED! (more than 98,000 votes)

http://giveusliberty1776.blogspot.com/2014/07/america-has-had-enough-of.html?m=1

Hanlon shrugged...

[Danube on iPad]

Hillary says she was appointed to represent that child rapist. I have read elsewhere that she was not. Anybody know anything?

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

MissM-- of course not. It's a Dem 'driveby', get a headline and bread and circuses for their silly women Lib voters. Harry won't make any Dems vote for cloture before November.

[Captain Hate]

Every Repuke mentioned in here needs to be tossed in a wood chipper:

http://hotair.com/archives/2014/07/08/gop-rep-jason-chaffetz-mitt-romney-will-run-in-2016-and-hell-win/

[GMax]

For that matter why are the Gorditos any different than Elian Gonzalez? It was extremely compassionate to break down his door, stick a M-4 in his face, tear him from his aunt's arms, and then ship him back to the socialist paradise in Cuba.

[Threadkiller]

"We have six minors in Nogales who have admitted to killing and doing grievous bodily injuries. One admitted to killing as young as eight years old," an agent tellsTownhall anonymously for fear of losing his job for speaking out.

"They are being held for placement in the U.S."

By U.S. legal standards many gang members operating in Central American countries and traveling north are classified as minors due to being under the age of 18. However, many young males are actively engaged in violent cartel and criminal activity, yet are treated as children when processed through the Department of Human Services or Department of Homeland Security systems.

"But remember, this is a 'humanitarian crisis.' They are just kids," he said in a frustrated and sarcastic tone. "They are MS-13 gang members. They've done everything from torture to murder. They act as teenage 'enforcers.'"

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2014/07/08/exclusive-unaccompanied-minors-admit-to-being-ms13-gang-members-engaging-in-torture-and-murder-n1859822

Bork welcomes them...

[Threadkiller]

Is "gordito" a slur?

[GMax]

Harry won't make any Dems vote for cloture before November.

Well them minority leader wont be scheduling any votes in 2015 on anything. And given how he has stiff armed the Republicans on even votes on amendments, he will get the "go sit in the corner and stop bothering us treatment"...

[GMax]

NO NO

Flako is a slur...

[Captain Hate]

gorditoa gordita
adjetivo
1 (gordo) chubby; plump
2 (Chile) (querido) darling (familiar)
fatty (familiar); fatso (familiar)

mamacita
(Latinoamérica)
1 (madre) mum (familiar); mummy (familiar); mom (familiar); (EEUU) mommy (familiar); (EEUU)

[Threadkiller]

Whew...

You know I hate that denigrating type of talk.

[GMax]

How could it possibly be denigrating. Taco Bell has them on their menu!

[Captain Hate]

Btw sports talk shows around here are so heavily invested in the return of Lebron, if he stays in Miami or goes elsewhere the fans will probably burn down the new Convention Center.

[Threadkiller]

Good point, GMax.

[Extraneus]

Anybody know anything?

I saw something that said the recording of her guffawing over the case had her claiming she did it for a friend. I'll look for it.

[Extraneus]

Here it is, DoT.

http://hotair.com/archives/2014/07/08/has-hillary-clintons-advocate-for-women-card-already-been-revoked/

[maryrose]

I am thrilled that Cleveland will host the 2016 convention for the republicans. the last time we held a national presidential convention was 1936. My nephew manages one of the Hilton hotels downtown and I have met Mr. Frost the head of the Ohio RNC. I would love to be a delegate but I am unsure how they are appointed or voted upon. In any event I am a rapid transit ride away from downtown {about 20 minutes} so I will participate in any manner I can. I know some officials from phone-banking and passing out literature.Ohio is in the bag for the repub candidate. Even our Dem Mayoor and the dem running against our governor Kasich are on board.
I believe I predicted this somewhat yesterday.

[Jane]

I'm not sure Obama has the balls to veto something - it might make him cry - or at least shake.

[NK(withnewsoftware)]

Maryrose-- but if the Repubs nominate a Romney-Christie ticket, you'll need to get out of the area fast before Captain Hate goes all medieval on the Repubs before they can leave town :)

[Rick B]

TK,

BOzo's casting call in Central America specified los flaquitos - los gorditos showed up. It's just another example of his Merde Touch.

[Captain Hate]

Congratulations maryrose; you obviously know how the GOP works better than I do.

[Captain Hate]

Anybody know where a person can buy a cheap wood chipper? I'm asking for a friend...

[maryrose]

Hillary is lying again. Acoording to a TAPE they have of her discussing the case, she stated she did it as a favor for a lawyer friend. She is on tape laughing about how the perp passed the lie detector test. He later copped to a lesser charge. So once again with Hil-real facts don't matter. Her cavalier attitude and her viscious questioning of the 12 year old girl tell you all you need top know about whereher "win at any cost" mantra began.

[Extraneus]

Wouldn't it be great if a future Republican president's press spokesman used lines like:

"You guys weren't curious about such things during the Obama Administration. In fairness, I would expect the same deferential treatment now. After all, the President is working hard for the American people."

That kind of thing.

[maryrose]

RickB;
Everything and I mean everything he touches turns to ash...