Some Borderline Statistical Analysis

Tom K. Wong at the Center for American Progress puts on his thinking cap and tries to resuscitate Team Obama's claim that the current crisis on our southern border is not due to Obama's slack deportation policy. I certainly appreciate the effort (and the links to some data) since I had a passing thought to attempt something similar myself.

However... as analysis, the CAP piece fall short. It succeeds in demonstrating the unremarkable conclusion that children are more inclined to flee dangerous countries than safe ones. But why the border influx now, as opposed to two, five, or seven years ago? Presumably something has changed; Team Obama claims it is the level of violence, and his critics insist it is US policy.

So, is it the level of violence in the key Central American countries that has changed? CAP does not address that point, but we get a hint from the UN figures on national homicide rates to which they link. This is from "Homicide counts and rates, time series 2000-2012":

My sophisticated eyeballometric assessment is that the homicide rate in El Salvador spiked in 2005 from about 40 (per 100,000) to about the mid-60's and was roughly steady there until falling back to the 40's in 2012 (if we can even believe these numbers...). That hardly suggests that children emigrating from El Salvador should have surged in 2013 or 2014. However, we can add this from a recent State Department travel warning:

Although Salvadoran police statistics show a decrease in annual homicides during 2012 and 2013, the homicide rate has been rising steadily since August 2013.  From mid-February through April 2014, El Salvador has experienced an average of almost 10 people killed per day - the highest homicide rate since 2011.

Guatemala has been roughly stable in the mid 30's (per 100,000) to low 40's for years, which is also inconsistent with a recent surge in violence-motivated emigration.

Honduras, on the other hand, is spiraling from bad to worse: the homicide rate was in the 50's or 60's until 2008, after which it has spiked into the 90's as of 2012. However, this travel advisory from the State Department is interesting - although they note that the violence has been extreme for years, they also estimate a homicide rate of 79 in 2013, down a bit from the 2012 UN figure (which may or may not be from comparable sources).

Now an obvious caveat is that these numbers end in 2012, so maybe things really have gotten worse recently. Per the FTI Consulting report cited by CAP, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras are all violent with an unfavorable trend, which gives Team Obama a whiff of support. Whether their data is more current than the UN figures is not clear.

The Congressional Research Service had a helpful report outlining the legal issues and the scope of the immigration problem over time. This picture is worth a thousand words:

The surge from the three Central American countries clearly began in 2012 and has escalated dramatically. June 15 2012 was when Obama exerted his executive authority (and prosecutorial discretion) to implement his version of the DREAM Act.

Well. There is no reason that unaccompanied children can't both be fleeing violence and hoping to benefit from a new and relaxed attitude towards law enforcement in the US. But since even Team Obama seems to have abandoned the notion that this is all about Central American violence (leaving the Times editors to hold the fort alone) I am going to stick with the idea that if newly arrived illegals are running towards the Border Patrol and asking for their permiso, they have an idea that our enforcement is lax.

I should also note that the new emerging theme is to Blame Bush for an anti-trafficking law passed in late 2008 with overwhelming bipartisan support (and through a Dem-controlled Congress).

Comments

[GMax]

In this case in order to be language appropriate I think it should be Las Mierdas Touch

[Threadkiller]

Ash for most, cash for others

[GMax]

More like he pulls it out of his ash

[maryrose]

I am hoping for a Walker/Christie ticket. Primarily because they are both competent governors. I would even support Nicki Haley, Martinez as VP or Jindal. They know how to get things done and are wonderful executves.
When you look at the dems-they have nothing...no bench just misguided Hillary hopes.

[Threadkiller]

You don't need much, when you have a decree.

[Captain Hate]

I am hoping for a Walker/Christie ticket.

That would work for me. Fat RINO Bastard is a very good campaigner and would make a decent VP where he would aggressively defend Walker's policies whether he agrees with them or not.

[Stephanie]

Anybody know where a person can buy a cheap wood chipper? I'm asking for a friend...

Posted by: Captain Hate | July 08, 2014 at 07:12 PM

Home Depot rents them, just be sure to clean thoroughly with bleach. :)

[Jane]

Anyone know where you can see the VA whistleblower hearing that starts at 7:30? It does not appear to be on Cspan.

[MaryD]

LOL, Stephanie! You have totally captured the spirit of the inquiry.

[Captain Hate]

Jane congratulations for whichever person you know having a child; is it your niece?

[Jane]

Nevermind, it is on Cspan, just not scheduled.

[MaryD]

Late to the party, but Congratulation to Aunt Jane!

[Threadkiller]

http://www.c-span.org/video/?320316-1/whistleblowers-va

[maryrose]

Congratulations Aunt Jane!
I bet you will spoil that child rotten as is your purpose.
Porch:
totally agree wrt your disciplining children and their experiencing consequences for their actions. I remember assigning a time-out to his room for my son and giving him my watch so he would know when the consequence was over. He learned how to tell time that way.

[narciso]

I well remember the Elian tale, they were in a darn hurry to render him back to Cuba, as state property, so he could become a Young Pioneer that was probably when I learned to loath the perky Katie, and Blather, 'Eighteen
Credits, for perpetuating the meme, 'he belongs with his father.

[MarkO]

Because Hillary is a liar, perhaps we cannot believe this admission that she took the case as a favor:

In “Living History,” Clinton wrote that the criminal court judge appointed her, and that she “couldn’t very well refuse the judge’s request.” The 2008 Newsday story quotes then-Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson who refers to her as being “appointed by the Circuit Court of Washington County.” However, in the newly-released audio tapes Clinton says a prosecutor for the case asked to take the case “as a favor to him.”

[Danube on iPad]

What in the world does "Bork welcomes them" mean?

[Danube on iPad]

"Hasn't Drudge been told that this is fruitless?"

Respondents to Drudge poll must be an interesting sample.

[narciso]

and playing the part of Steve Buschemi in Fargo:

http://rare.us/story/new-poll-justin-amash-has-a-huge-lead-over-his-establishment-opponent/

[centralcal]

Oh dear . . .

Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., got lost on his way to a Senate Republican luncheon on Tuesday and ended up at the Democrats' gathering instead, the Hill reported.

[Rick B]

c-c,

At least got the free lunch he wanted.

[GMax]

And probably some free birth control to boot...

[centralcal]

Heh! You are right, Rick B.

[Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet]

Anyone who has the time must watch the VA hearings. The witnesses are all MDs and are extremely impressive and credible. Their testimony is devastating to the VA. I will be interested to see how the Dems handle this.

[Rob Crawford]

Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., got lost on his way to a Senate Republican luncheon on Tuesday and ended up at the Democrats' gathering instead, the Hill reported.

Did he thank them for the loan of their voters?

[Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet]

So far, all have testified without notes in their opening statements. I have watched a ton of congressional hearings. Seldom does this happen in my experience.

[Miss Marple]

Jim Rhoads, is it on now? If so, it is not on my c-SPAN. Which one, 1,2, or 3?

[Jane]

Hey you guys it's AUNTEE Jane (and not the bug, the Boston way)

I was on the phone so I missed all but Scott Davis who linked it directly to the WH I think. Is that what you saw Jim?

[Jane]

Capn'

It's my niece Paige who I'm about as close as I could be to. Both she and her sister lived with me at different points of their lives, and they are as close to "my" children as I will ever get.

[Jane]

It's on Cspan 2.

[Danube on iPad]

Does anyone think that "sending the national guard" to the border would stanch the flow? I don't. Once they're on U.S. soil the law forbids ending them home without a hearing. What's the Guard going to do?

[Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet]

See TK's 7:34 for link to hearing.

[Jane]

Holy cow, this hearing is amazing.

[Miss Marple]

The key to stopping this is stopping them BEFORE they get here.

That means leaning on Mexico and offering to help. Like that would happen.

I am dead certain that Obama's minions have been gaming this and the flood will continue until we get enough votes in the Senate to pass legislation. And we will have to convince enough dems to override Obama's veto.

In my opinion, we do not want to look like we hate immigrant children. Let's talk about how they will never be reunited with their families if they are spread all over the US with no adequate ID.

Let's talk about how many could be taken by unscrupulous people and sold into sexual slavery.

Let's talk about how many died in the desert or were kidnapped or murdered or raped on the way here.

And let us also point out that school systems, already over-taxed, cannot support the addition of 2-300 illiterate children who do not speak English and who possibly have serious health problems.

[rich@gmu]

the Gov hit all the right notes in her op ed.

the GOPe picked the mistake by the lake. have fun captain hate and maryrose.

and what happened to Chubby, a commenter here for a while?

[rich@gmu]

>>>What's the Guard going to do?<<<

I guess shooting them would make for bad optics. How about a few engineering battalions to start work on a fence-a real fence, not a fake virtual fence? A few MP battalions to take our uninvited guests to uncomfortable tents in the desert?

One question that has come to mind though is has the diplomatic representatives of the countries sending "the kids" over been allowed to inspect the camps?

I'm cynical enough that I have no doubt those already here are staying and will vote Dem in 2014.

[Laura White]

Saw Dinesh D'Souza's America today. 10 in the godalmighty am. Only about 30 viewers but they all clapped--a very rare thing in this decorous wing of the Midwest.

[Danube on iPad]

"How about a few engineering battalions to start work on a fence-a real fence, not a fake virtual fence?"

How long would that take?

"A few MP battalions to take our uninvited guests to uncomfortable tents in the desert?"

Which will promptly be displayed on the nightly news and enjoined by the courts.

My solution is to amend existing law so that all illegal entrants can be treated the same as those from Mexico and Canada: reject them immediately. Let the buses and planes start moving.

[Jane]

I can't wait to see it Laura. It's not playing around here yet.

[Stephanie]

For the golfers:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10203482505800092&set=vb.1136917745&type=2&theater

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Well congratulations to Paige and I assume, perhaps erroneously, her husband and all close relatives.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

I'm on board for DoT's solution. Is the opposition party up to it?

[Laura White]

D'Souza adds at almost the very end and pretty subtly his own DOJ prosecution-he admits making a mistake, but his point is a quotation from the infamous Beria--"show me the man, I'll show you the crime."

[Rick B]

I believe I'd toss in a $250 per day per head reduction in aid to Mexico plus a $250 per day per head reduction in aid to the home country on top of the immediate return status. Tent city internment near the border for those who reject immediate return. Double fence the internment camps just to be sure.

[Stephanie]

For the soccer players:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=544374845685467

[Danube on iPad]

"Is the opposition party up to it?"

I have hardly heard mention of it. Boehner is talking about sending the Guard, although I haven't heard him say what the Guard should do.

[rich@gmu]

daddy might get a kick out of this bit of Alaskan history ... the AlCan Highway.

http://web.mst.edu/~rogersda/umrcourses/ge342/Alcan%20Highway-revised.pdf

a few I didn't knows: 3 of the engineering battalions were colored regiments and it took an act of congress because they were in a unified command.

the military effort: 8 months, 11 days; 1543 miles

opened Nov 20 1942. some of the original wooden bridges were used until the 80's.

The professor who coined the term "permafrost" was brought in as a consultant. He literally wrote the book on building in that environment.

why can't we build a border fence again?

[Jane on Ipad]

Costco changed its mind. I'm shocked. America is currently #1 on Amazon.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Rick, I'd also have the $2B that 404 requested for the poor urchins to come out of a reduction in the DoJ and IRS's allocation, if not the staff of the JEF. It's for the children; surely they will pony up eagerly.

[rich@gmu]

why not fund it as a tax of international remittances? 40%-50%.

[Beasts of England]

Did Germany score a touchdown or were those individual goals?

[Jane on Ipad]

Not erroneously Cap'n. I love her husband. And I just got to FaceTime Mav for the first time. He's a cool dude and looks like his dad.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Glad to hear it, Jane; congrats to all.

[Janet - the districts lie fallow, while the Capitol gorges itself]

Great little video, Steph. Hah!

I miss watching my kids play soccer. They were both very good...competitive...slide-tackling so-and-sos.

[narciso]

Congrats Jane, on your niece.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/08/us-france-security-idUSKBN0FD16020140708

[Miss Marple]

rich, my grandparents drove the Al-Can highway back in the late50's, when it was still gravel. They drove it all the way to the end. I have a slide of Fairbanks in the mid-50's, which looked to be a small town with a few stores and a bunch of Ford trucks.

They were schoolteachers in their early 50's. They took a station wagon with air mattresses and slept in the car. Both had grown up on farms and were outdoors types.

I am very proud of their adventurous spiritand glad I have some of their slides.

[rich@gmu]

>>>Is the opposition party up to it?

Posted by: Captain Hate on the iPad | July 08, 2014 at 09:09 PM<<<

Of course not, it would not pass muster with the Chamber of Commerce.

DoT-

It would take a long time to build a fence so it won't get built. Just like we have been told over and over again it would take 10 years to get oil from ANWR ... oh about 16 years ago.

Tents in the desert would be nice but obviously that isn't going to happen, even for the liars claiming they are 16, when in fact, they are 32 and tatted up head-to-toe.

Changing the law isn't going to happen with this congress and obviously wouldn't be signed by this president.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

FYI I got a call from my cardiologist confirming what I and everybody else assumed and I passed my stress test. Also my doctor referred me to a physical therapy place for my recalcitrant Achilles' tendon. Have I told any of you how much I like dealing with PTs? Neither of the two I've dealt with have their doctorates (unlike Dr Hatette) but they've done a world of good in a short period of time for what had been a very nagging injury. I had a bit of ultrasound treatment to it to stimulate blood flow over the small amount it normally receives. I make them tell me how frequently and how many reps to do the various stretching and strengthening exercises they prescribe, telling them otherwise I'll slack off.

[rich@gmu]

Miss Marple-

that sounds like they had an adventure. glad you have some of the slides. an elderly relative of mine worked on the Pipeline and I've been meaning to ask if he has a pictures from his time there.

[Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet]

I am totally delighted that your stress test was negative for heart disease, CH.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Thank you, Jim.

[rich@gmu]

Congratulations Jane.

Great news on the stress test Captain Hate. Rest up for the outrage at the mistake by the lake.

[Beasts of England]

Good news, Captain!

[Jane on Ipad]

That's great cap'n'!

[MaryD]

Wonderful news, CH!

[rich@gmu]

beasts-

in metric football they score points one at a time.

[narciso]

Great news, Captain, the chamber and their servants like Foghorn Leghorn, will dial to eleven to block any such action, the comparison with this venture, is if Trafficante had run the Pedro Pan project,

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Thank you, rich; please don't call Cleveland the mistake by the lake. I'm asking you that as a friendly request because it's bothered me ever since I first started living here. The area has plenty of problems which I can quote chapter and verse but having grown up in Laurel, Maryland, frankly I'm glad my children were raised here.

A few members of the Horde pissed me off today about that *and* about the river burning. I took it out on one pest who was overdue for corrective action.

[Danube on iPad]

Great news from both CH and Jane.

I'm not against a fence. My point is that it would do nothing to resolve the immediate problem.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Thanks all.

[Miss Marple]

Great news, Captain Hate! (I am late to answer because I am working on listings for eBay.)

Now back to work.

[Comanche Voter]

Well of course it's Bush's fault. Isn't everything?

[Gus]

So we are to believe that His Trajesty Queen Barack I, is such a f@#$ing loser, that he cannot stop MEXICAN/CENTRAL AMERICAN children by the THOUSANDS from entering HIS KINGDOM??

Who the fuck is stupid enough to believe this bullshit? Seriously. Who believes ANYTHING this jug eared pile of shit says now?

[narciso]

Or possibly that really bad comedy by Doug McGrath,

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/08/the-cia-s-bumbling-german-spy-was-more-austin-powers-and-less-james-bond.html

[MarkO]

Letterman invites Joan Rivers on his show so he can walk out on her. I never thought he was funny. Now he's just a miserable old curmudgeon.

He loves himself some Obama.

I won't even affix a link. Who cares?

[rich@gmu]

DoT-

if their way back home is being obstructed, they might self deport if the fence were a serious effort. and a big enough effort (like the AlCan highway effort) would put so many eyes on the border few would want to attempt to cross.

It isn't going to happen anyway so I guess it is pointless to speculate.

[rich@gmu]

Captain Hate-

noted and apologies.

[Jane on Ipad]

One small development. I've noticed that when people raise the issue of impeachment, no one is screaming "racist".

[Stephanie]

At the story’s center is the Mississippi Conservatives PAC, which is on the receiving end of furious charges of race-baiting against insurgent candidate Chris McDaniel and the Tea Party as a whole. But an even bigger problem comes from evidence that the group calling itself Mississippi Conservatives was anything but, illustrating in stunning detail how the establishments and donors of the Republican and Democratic parties intermingle.

Let’s begin over at the Federal Election Commission. Thirty-seven people have donated to Mississippi Conservatives 51 times — and 36 of those donations were for more than $5,000. Let’s just talk about these high-rollers. A full 55 percent of them have either 1) given money directly to prominent Democrats; or 2) given money to other PACs from which it seems to have flowed to Democratic candidates. Yes, you read that right. More than half of the high-dollar donors to this so-called Mississippi Conservatives group had previously given money to help elect Democrats. And not just the distant past, but recently — including Senate races targeted this very year by the GOP.

http://spectator.org/articles/59885/donor-controversies-hit-mississippi-conservatives?utm_content=buffer3f85d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[Jim Rhoads f/k/a vnjagvet]

CH is right. Cleveland is not the "mistake by the lake". That honor belongs to my home town, Erie, PA. Since I was a little bit, we always referred to our sometimes great home town as "dreary Erie, the Mistake by the Lake".

[rich@gmu]

and catching up from the previous threads I wonder what JamesD's new database would have about me?

yikes and double yikes.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwaski]

The time for impeachment is long gone because the Constitution which contemplates it is long gone.
We don't need impeachment.
We need an insurrection.

A circus "trial" in the Senate will do nothing to restore our country anymore than the Roman Circus restored their Republic.
A majority of the Senators' heads on pikes will do a great deal.
I hope I live long enough to see it.

[rich@gmu]

having to work with that would be like having to ask questions of Mother while looking over my shoulder for Ash.

[rich@gmu]

my comment seems to have vanished.

[Dave (in MA)]

please don't call Cleveland the mistake by the lake. I'm asking you that as a friendly request because it's bothered me ever since I first started living here.

On the other hand, say whatever you want about Boston.

on the clean bill of health.

[Miss Marple]

Once upon a time my city, Idnianapolis, was known as "Naptown."

In the early 70's, there was nothing open downtown after 6PM except a couple of bars in hotels. You could roll a bowling ball down the sidewalk and never hit one person.

Mayor Hudnut, who followed Mayor Lugar, had a vision of using amateur sports to bring business to Indianapolis. We hosted several tournaments and then got the Pan Am games at the last minute when the original host in South America couldn't do it financially.

We also got the Colts, having built a domes stadium when we had no team, moved the Pacers to a new stadium after Market Square Arena was closed, and moved the minor league ballpark into a new field on the edge of downtown.

When you visit the city now, it has all sorts of activity, sidewalk cafes, shops open, horses and carriages, etc. We do quite a bit of convention business, too.

I credit Mayor Hudnut for the vision of what the city could be.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Hmmm, Miss Groves might have been at work. No apology needed, rich; it was a friendly request. I hope I wasn't offensive.

[DrJ]

mistake by the lake

Is this up for a vote? Chicago, but that's only because Detroit is on a river.

[Miss Marple]

Heading to bed.

Good night, everyone!

[Jane on Ipad]

Can't have a insurrection without people motivated to get up and lead it.

My only point about the impeachment thing is it shows the left will no longer scream "racist" in response. His magic is gone.

[rich@gmu]

no not offensive. but we are going to need the outrage!!!

and get GUS WITH HIS CAPS too.

[Stephanie]

Loving this one...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=777608415632623&set=a.401034789956656.90394.389658314427637&type=1&theater

If anyone with Photoposting skillzzz what's to embigger it on a post.

[rse]

Stephanie-huge asbestos practice centered in MS. Those trial lawyers would give to Reps locally and state and DEm federally.

I could definitely see their wanting to keep their known in place.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

I wonder if LaTourrette is involved with that MS chicanery. He's forever creating misleadingly titled shell groups.

[Stephanie]

Yea I noticed on late night TV all those lawyer commercials are either Gulfport MS or somewhere in Texas.

Still doesn't mean it doesn't stink.

[rich@gmu]

looks like Israel has reached its limit with Hamas.

[Stephanie]

As an FYI:

I keep getting a blocked website from Enet on something running on this webpage.

[Eric in Boise]

Who believes ANYTHING this jug eared pile of shit says now?

Ezra Klein, among others. And I'd give up my next three mortgage payments to witness a cage match between Gus and Ezra.

[narciso]

there was that lawyer Motley?, who was a relative of Trent Lott, a big player in the tort bar down there,

[Stephanie]

They're gonna move Brazil to the Big 10. ‪#‎SEC‬ ‪#‎WorldCup‬

Funniest comment on the WC I've seen today.