A Character-Building Article On Nation-Building In Iraq

The NY Times has an excellent guest piece by Ali Khedery, described as

...the chairman and chief executive of Dragoman Partners. He served as special assistant to five American ambassadors in Iraq and as senior adviser to three heads of the Central Command from 2003-10.

The piece is "Iraq’s Last Chance" and he recounts the difficulties of turning this divided area into a nation.

I was involved in the formation of all five of Iraq’s governments between 2003 and 2010, and I know that the coming weeks will be decisive, turbulent and violent, as leaders from all factions jockey for both power and money — to help represent their respective communities and to siphon away billions of government dollars through systemic patronage.

After spending more than $1 trillion and losing some 4,500 soldiers’ lives, American politicians cannot dare reveal a dirty little secret: Iraq has since 2003 devolved into a combination of Lebanon and Nigeria — a toxic brew of sectarian politics and oil-fueled kleptocracy. The combination of religious rivalry and endemic corruption has hollowed out the Iraqi government, as evidenced by the country’s ongoing electricity crisis and the collapse of entire Iraqi Army divisions in the face of an advance by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, into Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, even though the Iraqi troops vastly outnumbered the militants.

Over the past century, Iraq has suffered from regional wars, British colonialism, numerous coups, disastrous invasions of its neighbors Iran and Kuwait, international sanctions, an American military occupation and nearly four decades of misrule by Saddam Hussein and Mr. Maliki.

Once the capital of Arab culture, philosophy and commerce, Iraq is today an international pariah and incubator of transnational terrorism, where regional actors are engaged in a bloody proxy war that threatens to spill across borders and destabilize the entire region.

Mr. Abadi has inherited a country on the verge of collapse. Whether Iraq will shatter or be salvaged is not in his hands alone. It will depend on a dizzying number of other leaders, political parties, nonstate actors, and neighboring and global powers.

Worth noting - regardless of Obama's protestations that this is a problem which must be solved by the Iraqis, Iran has and will continue to meddle:

Increasing Iranian influence has only made matters worse. America sat back and watched in 2010 as Mr. Maliki’s cabinet was formed by Iranian generals in Tehran, thereby assuring its strategic defeat in Iraq. ISIS is a direct outgrowth of that defeat. Sensing an American vacuum, both Mr. Maliki and his Iranian patrons sought to consolidate their gains by economically, politically and physically crushing their Sunni and Kurdish rivals. Consequently, today’s “Iraqi security forces” are almost exclusively Shiite, reinforced by militias financed, trained, armed and directed by Iran. Given Mr. Maliki’s blatant sectarianism and his complicity in Bashar al-Assad’s campaign of genocide against Syria’s Sunnis, Sunni radicalization and the spread of ISIS across the region were predictable.

Re-enlisting the Sunnis against ISIS won't be easy:

ISIS will also have to be defeated. The root cause of its rise was Sunni disenfranchisement and disillusionment. If the Sunnis turn on ISIS now, which they’re ready to do, then they risk being obliterated by Shiite militants within a year or two. It won’t be easy to repeat the “Awakening” of roughly 2006-10, when Sunni tribes in western and central Iraq turned against the Al Qaeda fighters who were the forerunners of ISIS.

Baghdad and Washington betrayed their promises to these tribal members in 2010, after the secular Sunni-led Iraqiya coalition won more seats than Mr. Maliki’s coalition, only to be deprived of an opportunity to form a government due to Mr. Maliki’s coercion of the judiciary.Although Iraqiya would have inevitably failed to form a cabinet in the face of Iranian objections, simply allowing it the chance would have respected the intent of the Iraqi Constitution, which America helped draft.

Mr. Maliki’s unjust victory and overt purges of Sunnis only compounded the problem. It will be much harder now to convince them that the same thing won’t happen again given that Iran has displaced the United States as the most influential actor in Iraq.

His conclusion is graphic and grim:

Sunnis can gain real influence in Iraq’s government only if Iran and its Shiite Islamist proxies allow them back to the table in Baghdad. And that would require overcoming deep fears and hatred. To Shiites, it is akin to bringing Hutu génocidaires into the Rwandan cabinet or appointing apartheid apologists as ministers in the South African government. 

...

Iraqis face a simple but defining question: Do they want to live with one another?

Can Shiite Islamists who suffered mightily under Hussein stomach the thought of sitting in a cabinet meeting with neo-Baathist Sunnis? Can those Sunnis stand the concept of sharing power with a currently serving Shiite cabinet minister who was a general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and is a death-squad commander behind an ongoing campaign to ethnically cleanse Baghdad of Sunnis by taking power drills to their skulls? Can the Kurds, who suffered decades of oppression at the hands of both Shiite and Sunni Arabs, stomach the idea of remaining part of a dysfunctional country that shares neither their language nor their traditions? This is not a hypothetical scenario but precisely what members of Mr. Maliki’s cabinet were forced to consider for the past eight years. Thus far, the results speak for themselves.

As I’ve told numerous American ambassadors and generals, I believe the answer to all these questions will ultimately be “no.” To date, I’ve seen no indication that there is enough tolerance or willingness among Iraq’s leaders to forgive, forget and move on.

Hmm. That takes us back to Joe Biden's Partition Plan. Well, the Sunni and Kurdish portions would be natural US allies as the Shiite section leapt into remained in Iran's lap. Two out of three ain't bad, but at this point it is hard to see Obama bestirring himself to achive even that.

Comments

[Comanche Voter]

Well he'd have to do something other than vote "present". And that's not his style.

Of course he's squandered any political capital he may ever have had. Best to let him "play on through" on the golf course until we are finally rid of him in January 2017.

[Jim Eagle]

None of this matters to the Champ because as far as he is concerned its all Bush's fault anyway. And if you try to pin it on him then ytou are as racist as Darren Wilson.

[MarkO]

I blame Wilson and the League of Nations that created the British Mandate of Mesopotamia.

[Jeff Dobbs]

TM:
Worth noting - regardless of Obama's protestations that this is a problem which must be solved by the Iraqis, Iran has and will continue to meddle

Yike. Here's Obama about Iran in the summer of 2009 when a popular uprising threatened the Iranian regime . . .

WASHINGTON — President Obama said Tuesday that it would be counterproductive for the United States “to be seen as meddling” in the disputed Iranian presidential election, dismissing criticism from several leading Republicans that he has failed to speak out forcefully enough on behalf of the Iranian opposition.

Although the president said he had “deep concerns about the election,” he also said that any direct involvement by the United States would not be “productive, given the history of U.S.-Iranian relations.” How Iran goes about electing its leaders and establishing freer debate and democratic principles, he told reporters at the White House, “is something ultimately for the Iranian people to decide.”

Neda Agha-Soltan was made unavailable for comment a week after Obama's statement.

But at least Hillary invited Iranian diplomats around the world to US Embassies for hotdogs for the 2009 Fourth of July.

They told me that if we elected Barack Hussein Obama, Iran would unclench its fist if we stretched out our hand. They were wrong. And stupid. And now we're all paying the price.

[Manuel Transmission]

Just a followup on Clarice's Pieces, the iPhone stops the blockquote at "Black Plague", while my Mac shows it properly at "long term goals".

It is obviously a bug in AT's software where the auto insertion of an ad that covers the whole page breaks the block quote and doesn't insert a new one for the remaining two paragraphs.

I recognized MM's words, but non-JOMers wouldn't, necessarily.

[clarice]

I'll have the editors check.

[narciso]

Great pieces, clarice,

Khedery's is pretty good, he leaves out some details like in this earlier piece;

Some critics, including Mr. Eskander, point to Miss Bell’s legacy in empowering a Sunni elite as a new political class, at the expense of the majority Shiite population, and say it helped set the conditions for today’s rampant sectarianism. “She wanted the British to make a deal with the Sunni elite at the time, at the expense of the rest of the population,” he said.

[Pagar]

Hotdogs for the Iranian diplomats"

I thought i remembered it was to show off the new US gay pride flag all the embassies had just received?

[Jeff Dobbs]

Jun 22, 2009:

President Barack Obama’s administration said earlier this month it would invite Iran to US embassy barbecues for the national holiday for the first time since the two nations severed relations following the 1979 Islamic revolution.

“There’s no thought to rescinding the invitations to Iranian diplomats,” State Department spokesman Ian Kelly told reporters.

“We have made a strategic decision to engage on a number of fronts with Iran,” Kelly said. “We tried many years of isolation, and we’re pursuing a different path now.”

Jun 25, 2009:

It was an attempt by President Obama to reach out to Iran with a classically American invitation: celebrate July 4 with hot dogs and hale fellowship at United States embassies worldwide. Now, hot-dog diplomacy is the latest casualty of the bloody clashes in Tehran.

On Wednesday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who had authorized diplomatic posts earlier this month to invite Iranians to their Independence Day parties, sent out a cable rescinding the invitations.

[narciso]

that came from this piece:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/27/world/middleeast/gertrude-bell-sought-to-stabilize-iraq-after-world-war-i.html?smid=tw-nytimesworld&_r=1

to my eye, the Sunnis have been catered to, as Bells' biographer Georgina Howell points out back to the Ottoman period

[Carol Herman]

We don't need this! We have as much influence with the citizens of irak, as we do with blacks in American neighborhoods. Here's a comment I picked up at a link. The lying is an overriding characteristic. Go ahead, say "you're shocked."

"This background chatter is very significant because it gives an honest witness account of someone who doesn't know they're being filmed and who isn't giving evidence to a police department he hates. The people in many of these communities hate the cops so much they will lie through their teeth en masse and give multiple false witness statements, even under oath. I remember a case in NYC a few years ago when a cop shot a teenage kid in the chest at a block party. The cop said that the kid came at him swinging a metal scooter around his head. There was the usual outrage, and upwards of 20 people at the party swore blind that the kid was just standing there minding his own business when the cop shot him for no reason. Who can argue with 20 witnesses, right? Well, it wasn't long before a 911 call was released in which a neighbor on the block described everything that was happening to an operator. She said "oh my god, the kid's going at the cop and swinging a scooter...oh my god he got shot" etc. Everyone at that party was prepared to lie under oath in order to frame the cop and create another "social injustice" race controversy. Which is why I would always question any "witness account" from a community like this, unless of course it's a candid recording of two people who don't know they're on tape. That's about as honest as it's going to get."

[Wow, taking us back to 2006 with a pretty accurate memory.

I, on the other hand, think I had scrambled eggs for breakfast. No... TM]

[Beasts of England]

The US Amateur concludes today at the Atlanta Athletic Club. A Canadian (Conners) and a South Korean (Yang) in the 36-hole match play final. By virtue of their appearance in the finals, each is qualified for next year's Masters and US Open, provided they don't turn pro before those events.

Conners made it to the semi-finals of the Am last year and Yang is a Cinderella story who escaped a few dumb decisions from yesterday's semis. I look for Conners to close him out early into the fourth nine.

[Jim Eagle]

A 7th century personality cult vs. a resurrected 1978 personality cult.

There are no winners in this contest.

[narciso]

Going back to the eighties, Saddam's Mukharabat have given sanctuary to the likes of Abu Nidal, and provided support to many other factions,

http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2014/08/17/kiev-officials-russias-bringing-more-missile-launchers-into-ukraine/

[Jim Eagle]

narc,

But not Al-Queda. There was no AQ in Iraq.

Looks like that Chicago All AA LL team is getting shellacked by a lot of "white priveledge" and curve balls but mostly curve balls and big bats.

[rich@gmu]

afternoon everyone.

got a good night sleep for a change and the meeting went well. have a request for the NoVa contingent here:

Janet and JamesD (and others interested) ... do you think you could ask around if anyone would be interested in some nice furniture for a one bedroom apartment (nice bedroom set, living room furniture, nice dining room table)? I am trying to unload a storage locker and have the stuff just sitting around. I am moving to my new place next week and my dad is finally in Florida and this is what I have left to dispose of. I don't have the room or really the time to mess with it and would like to get from under the storage locker as well.

You can email or text me if you have someone in mind or someone interested.

Thanks.

[rich@gmu]

gotta love Drudges headlines

Obama heads back to DC in rare vacation break... Developing...

[Jim Eagle]

Tim Finchem is a bundle of joy. No wonder golf is in trouble.

Somnulent is apropos for this doofus.

[Beasts of England]

Sharpton says America is 'on trial.'

Don't take this the wrong way, you goofy-ass race pimp, but go fuck yourself sideways.

[Nkonipad]

Has Rev Al paid his delinguint Fed taxes?

[rich@gmu]

hey beasts.

yeah exactly that. i think if he keeps talking, he ain't going to like the answer he'll get.

[Nkonipad]

Boy...between Ipad 'keyboard' tech and my typing 'skills' ai yai yai...

[Nkonipad]

But, per JOM protocol, I will not correct........

[rich@gmu]

style book, NK, style book.

[daddy]

Humorous local headline of the day:

Begich hits Republican rivals on domestic violence

[Beasts of England]

Per JOM Protocol, I won't notice! ;)

[daddy]

Congrats to Clarice for another excellent column and to Miss Marple for her sharp observation that Clarice led off with.

FWIW, I really enjoyed many years back reading Barbara Tuchman's "A Distant Mirror, The Calamitous Fourteenth Century", but I did not recall the observation Miss Marple took away from it. I simply thought it was fascinating history and very well written. Might have to reread it.

[Jim Eagle]

BoE,

Ever been to Gleneagles where this year's Ryder Cup is to be held?

If not, sell the Ferrari, take the money and indulge yourself. Finest hotel, restaurant(s) or food.wine and golf combo on the planet.

Some say the American Club at Kohler is the same but I haven't been there, yet!

[Beasts of England]

Haven't been to either one, JiB. Heard great things about both - Herb Kohler not withstanding...

[Extraneus]

I read A Distant Mirror quite a while ago, and my memory ain't what it used to be either, daddy. I read another good book on the plague since then, whose title or author I can't remember (duh), but it went into detail about how the plague years and so much death led to the development of most modern law about wills and inheritance. I do remember that it was a fascinating read. :-P

[daddy]

Peddlin' Presidents and Prime Ministers:

Obama:

Tony Abbott:

Aussie PM Abbott did a 90 minute cycle for Charity in the rain.
Obama did a Martha' Vineyard bike trail.

According to the SMH, Abbott bikes to work at Canberra and is a serious biker.

[glasater]

Fox showing Sharpton whipping up the church crowd is beyond a disgrace. Just sickening.

[daddy]

I read A Distant Mirror quite a while ago, and my memory ain't what it used to be either, daddy.

Ext, Too bad we ain't Flatworms: Worms regrow their decapitated heads, along with the memories inside

[Sue]

Is that Michelle in the blue behind him? If so I want to know how she looks so, she's gained some weight recently.

[Sue]

I had two thoughts that didn't merge. ::grin::

[clarice]

rich, soylent is moving back here in a couple of weeks, why not email him?

[Extraneus]

Planarians' brains control their behavior, but the researchers suggest that some of their memories might be stored elsewhere in their body.

Interesting, daddy. Where else do you figure our memories are stored? Clinical language only, please.

[AliceH]

JOM Cooking update.

A couple days ago, I finally got around to making Jane's recipe recommendation: Blueberry Cheesecake in Glass Jars Verdict: Very Good even though I think I cooked it about 5" too long. (I used splenda instead of sugar which is not only my own preference but allows me to share w/ a friend who is diabetic.) I'll definitely make it again - next time I plan to use the shorter round jars vs the tall ones as illustrated - It was hard to achieve a consistent blueberry-to-cheesecake ratio with the tall ones. :)

Re: anonamom's and Clarice's pickles - I've been stymied by lack of cucumbers in the local stores and TWICE forgot to check out the weekly Farmer's market. Will BOLO for persians or kirbys when next at Walmart, though.

[daddy]

Just in case this hasn't yet ben posted:

WANTED – Ferguson Shooting Cohort, and Robbery Accomplice, Dorian Johnson, Has Outstanding Arrest Warrant For Previous Theft…

there is a warrant for Johnson’s arrest for a 2011 incident. Johnson was arrested June 24, 2011, and a trial was set for July 31, 2013, but he did not appear in court, authorities said.

[daddy]

I had two thoughts that didn't merge. ::grin::

Sue, Off with your head! (In a flatworms kind'a way:)

[daddy]

Clarice and Anonamom,

Do you guys do your pickles whole, or do you slice them in sections? Mine wound up getting soggy so I am ready to try a new batch with proper pickling pickles.

[rich@gmu]

Posted by: clarice | August 17, 2014 at 05:20 PM -

will do. thanks. forgot he mentioned he was returning to the area.

[Sue]

Daddy,

Both of my thoughts were unkind to FLOTUS.

[Extraneus]

I'm no expert, but I've been to plenty of Jewish delis in NYC and they're done whole, and sometimes served in thirds, believe it or not.

[daddy]

My guess is by now we have all seen this video where a background conversation of bystanders who witnessed the shooting, and who are unaware they are being recorded, are corroborating the cops version of the story: The “JJ Witness Video” – Eye Witness Audio of Mike Brown Shooting States: “Brown Doubled Back Toward Police”…

The point I wanted to make is that I don't believe without the eyes and the ears of internet folks that this corroborating bit of evidence would ever have been discovered by the Media or the authorities. It required some anonymous Ferguson guy with a cellphone to take the video and then to post the video (All apparently in an effort to buttress the dead perps version of things), and then for some sharp eared viewer to discern the conversation going on in the background, and then to bring that bit of info to the attention of Blog readers.

I have not yet heard this bit of info mentioned by any of the talking heads or officials doing their press conferences, but I'm not paying that much attention.

Have any of you heard any of the MSM or authorities talking about this corroborating evidence?

[Jane]

Alice,

I used Agave. I'm out of that so the next batch will be honey. I decrease the amount by a third. And since all the blueberries are now frozen, I was thinking of making it chocolate.

It will be my 5th batch - I've been freezing it so we will see how that works out.

I use the little jars - they are perfect.

[clarice]

I do mine whole--there's several ways to deal with the sogginess-adding alum to the jars for example..but perhaps if you are making them in a warmer location, you should refrigerate them after just a few days.. Some people like Ball's pickle crisp granules. (I think the problem often is that the pickles are not fresh picked when you get them and need to be refreshed for a day in ice water before continuing.)

[Rick B]

Daddy,

It's the subject of a new post.

[daddy]

Thanks Rick,

I just saw that. Gotta' catch-up on my catch-up.

[daddy]

Thanks Clarice,

Now I've got to google Alum and find out what it is. Excellent column today and I'm not apologizing for saying it twice!

[sbw]

Alum used in cartoons caused lips to pucker.

[AliceH]

aren't styptics (for shaving cuts) made of alum?

Just googled - YES!

It's amazing how many trivial things I know are traceable to frequent crossword puzzle clues.

[AliceH]

Jane: The Blueberry version got rave reviews from my friend. I suspect a Chocolate cheesecake version would be even better!

I'm not much of a desserts person. I do like to make them, though, and I've found I enjoy them more since I started using sugar substitutes. I haven't tried using agave. It's not as readily available as splenda around here.

[Exasperated]

Have you noticed that an increasing percentage of people today can't follow even the simplest of simple instructions?

[glasater]

Lining the bottoms of the pickle jars with grape leaves helps to NOT have soggy pickles. Plus, one cannot use regular salt. Two musts for making great pickles.
And the cukes must soak for a day just as Clarice says if they are not fresh.
I've fought the pickle battles and know...lost a couple of rounds...trust me :-)

[Mark l.]

The schism between sistani and the mullahs in Iran is worth noting. While the US never had much use for an apolitical religious leader, his religious brand is the salvation of Persian Shiites.

The Kurds, while Sunni, have a bond with the Shiites of Iraq, forged by their shared experience and respect for Sistani and his followers.

[richard40]

My recommendation would be to support the Kurds as much as possible, since they are the only Iraqi faction that has never betrayed us, and can also effectively fight. To hell with the Iraqi gov, unless they drastically reform, and find a way to definitly include all 3 factions. If you want a unified Iraq at all I would insist the Kurds be the dominant faction in charge of the gov, despite their being a minority faction, since they are not pawns of either the jihadist Sunnis or the Jihadist Iranians, and can act as an honest broker between both of them. Unlike the Sunnis and Shias the Kurds also have a good record at protecting religious minorities, like Christians and Yezidis.