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August 05, 2014

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Danube on iPad

"in 2010 the Reps were vastly underrepresented due to 2006 and 2008"

Precisely. If the Repubs do exactly as well as they did in 2010 and win the same number of seats in the house, it will be just as big a wave, but it won't be a gain of anything close to 68 seats. I expect that this point will not be widely understood in the commentariat.

Beasts of England

Keep refreshing the Ewok. He's about to trip over his string...

Ignatz

I wrote it and I barely understood it. :/

Danube on iPad

Just to elaborate, when the dust settled in 2010 the GOP had 242 house seats, for a gain of 63 (not 68). Today they have 234. If they have 242 after November it will be a decisive victory, but a gain of "only" eight seats, which is the point Juan Williams will emphasize.

Stephanie

He gets into these naval gazing moods about every 28 days, doesn't he? And usually in posts where he pontificates in 300 words or more when 30 would do.

Argumentum maginitis or Argumentum aliquando dictum?

Kinda like a woman.

/Ducks.

NKtryin' tologin

DoT-- understood, but the wave in 2010 had Repubs up in Generics +10 on election day; in 2012 when they lost POTUS and Senate seats, they were EVEN in RCP Generics; so for repubs to add 8 or more seats in House and win Senate, they will have to be PLUS in the RCP Generic polls, if 2010 and 2012 were prologues. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_generic_congressional_vote-3525.html

DebinNC

Glowing article from AP out about BOzo today promising $33 billion in public and private funds for Africa. The writer, Julie Pace, is professional and nonpartisan, as her Twitter pic proves.

clarice

I got banned at FR because I asked them to stop people posting my entire articles instead of a bit and a link. I was especially annoyed by it because the copying did not include the links to articles , but also because it meant AT lost traffic that way.

Ignatz

Here is why I don't go to Ace's very often;


Secondly, it [savages] refers, as a noun, to the "uncivilized or primitive."

The people here seem to live in a city. They are not bushmen. They do not carry spears.


This in a comment where Ace is lecturing a guy, apparently a guy with no small amount of black blood, about being culturally and racially insensitive and how we often don't even see our own bigotry.
Most of the mayhem in the world occurs in more civilized cities by those non spear wielding, non bush men.

As an aside bushmen are a separate ethnic, linguistic and cultural group who only live in southern Africa, nowhere near the ebola outbreak, and are some of the most gentle, civilized people on earth if we measure civilization as not harming others.

Jack is Back!

America has always been a Democrat party strong hold. All you have to do is look at the House and Senate makeup over the years since we have had 435 reps. Back in the 30's the Dems had 334 members to like 88 Repibs (there were other parties back then). This was prior to WW2 and the Dems began to declime each 2 and 6 years. Then after the war the Repubs took over but it didn't last long and it never does with them.

DOOM™

Miss Marple

clarice, I never got banned because I left during the attacks on everyone who didn't support the MOST conservative during the 2008 primaries. Especially repulsive to me were the attacks on Mormonism.

Several of us went to a private site started by one of the FR members. and that is where I am when not here. I only go to FR when an old member dies.

Beasts of England

I see what you did there, Steph. And I saw what you did over there, as well. Political correctness is a scourge equal to communism, and it's tough to watch a Top-100 conblog clutch their pearls like that. Sunny beach!

Jack is Back!

I think Rantburg is still the sterling crown of terrorism coverage and especially the major subset -Muzzies. Lots of ex spooks, military and G2 guys with more real life experience than the whole Obama admin including the DoD, CiA and NSA.

If you have never been there it is well worth the visit which I do every day.

Stephanie

:) I figure Ace's floor is chock full of fallen pearls. And fallen pearls. Moron needs a girlfriend to lower his estrogen quotient methinks.

Beasts of England

He either needs a girlfriend or a pedicure. Sheesh...

Jack is Back!

Didn't Ace once try to get a gig at CPac? And they turned him down (or something like that).

narciso

No I don't think the wave will be as big, because we've seen how the Top Men, Rover,
Tourette's syndrome, have resolutely attacked the Tea Party time and again, rubbishing their goals, questioning the judgement if not the sanity of the membership, never correcting their impression, the fracas in Jackson is just the most obvious impression, we saw it
last fall, when they looked upon Cruz and
Cuccinelli, like Vasily Fet's rats, (he[s the Ukrainian exterminator in the strain) so how can we be confident that there will be hearing of grievances, much less action
on them, we saw how Governor Luthor operated like a certain procurator of note,
and threw a goof man to the wolves

Miss Marple

I see that since he is losing the argument with Baldilocks and several othrs he started aew thread about the new salaries for the Bing Bank cast members.

Also he is sort of daring people to criticize him for not sticking with an important issue (why I got banned).

Miss Marple

Big BANG

Jim Miller

FWIW, Sides and company are predicting that the Republicans will win just enough House seats to get back to where they were after the 2010 election.

That sounds about right to me, regardless of the current generic vote, because I think that issues will help the Republicans as voters begin to pay attention, and because I think the Republicans made gains through redistricting, net, after the 2010 census.

(They are also giving Republicans an 86 percent chance of taking the Senate.)

Jack is Back!

A Rantburg comment on the 2 star killed in the 'stan:

#5 Was this the new guy or had they not transitioned? And yes, Where is Blackwater when you need them? Oh, that's right, the PC police made them go away...
Posted by: 49 Pan || 08/05/2014 13:47 Comments || Top||

Also, another commenter notes that a German general visiting was injured.

sbw

What's the answer to that for the mushes in the middle?

"Hey, Mush, you don’t believe in identity politics do you?"

Miss Marple

Alan Dershowitz points out that not ALL of Gaza is densely populated, so why doesn't Hamas move its rockets to those areas?

Good article!

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4580/gaza-population-density

NKtryin' tologin

Dr Roy Spencer releases his June 2014 satellite temp data-- MEH. Higher than the early spring, flat compared to May. For all the world, it looks as if 100 years of satellite data will show by 2079 a 1C rise in temps, just as Dr Lindzner and Michael Crichton projected. Nice and toasty, but no calamity: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/07/uah-global-temperature-update-for-june-2014-0-30-deg-c/

sbw

re: densely populated Gaza

The admin isn’t interested in 'splainin' things. They are interested in stopping discussion that might lead to understanding.

Miss Marple

sbw,

I concur. However, the article is interesting because it shows the fraud that Hamas (and members of our government) are perpetrating.

NKtryin' tologin

Narciso -- those Top men in 2010 were.... the same Top Men. Sorry no sale on that.
The LaTourette guy is rubbishing competitors for campaign $$$$.. all's fair in politics. That's why I only give to individual candidates or single issue groups through PAC money, at least there is some control over how the money is used.

Thomas Collins

You have great taste in the articles you link, Miss Marple. Keep on linking Gatestone and liking them on Facebook. It's high time high quality web sites are given due recognition!

Of course, the fact that my son is working for Gatestone this summer has nothing to do with my irrational exuberance for Gatestone! :-))

narciso

Major General Harold Greene, he was in acquisitions, so maybe an inspection tour,
from his cv,

no one wants anything to do with Gaza, Nasser used it as a staging base against Israel, I believe then Major Ariel Sharon, responded to one such provocation,

Porchlight

Ace's real problem is that he wants to be a mainstream righty bigshot blogger and the crude neanderthals who read and comment on his posts are way too conservative and thus keeping him from hanging out with the cool kids.

It is so refreshing to hang out at such a hands-off site like JOM, where our kind and tolerant host barely seems to notice us, let alone care how we may be damaging his reputation. In that sense TM is like the anti-Ace.

NKtryin' tologin

Ed M comments on the state of play in eastern Ukraine. Still no way to know how Czar Vlad will play this out, but for the moment, it looks like at worst he'll use tanks only to grab the Russian East, and possibly not use military force at all and rely on his old standbys-- blackmail by Gaz turnoffs and cash payment demands. http://hotair.com/archives/2014/08/05/ukraine-ready-to-take-on-donetsk-pocket-of-rebellion/

Porchlight

Here's some Acesplaining for you:

But my use of "The Other" was not condescending; it's a useful way to think about things.

It's a different way to think about things, and it's not self-flattering (rather, it suggests that each self should examine his own bigotries, which we do all have), and the fact that it's different must make it wrong, I guess.

What is this, my freshman year in college again?

Does he think we're that stupid?

Stephanie

One site I used to frequent regularly was Protein Wisdom (Jeff Goldstein), but then the Patterico flareups and the woe is me stuff started and, you know, you just get tired of that. A classical liberal should ignore it, not whine about it. You expect it from Obama and his ilk, but it is so tiresome at high quality blogs. Sometimes you really are ahead of the curve and it takes a while for the world to catch up.

Jeff was tea party(outlaw!) before tea party(outlaw!) was cool.

Dave (in MA)

Narciso,

Apparently from '09-'11 he was the Commander of the Natick Soldier System Center ("Natick Labs") just down the street from where I'm sitting.

Miss Marple

Thomas Collins,

Really, your son worked for them? How cool!

I thought that Dershowitz article was good, and am stunned that NONE of the media managed to make that conclusion by looking at a darn map!

Jack is Back!

If you don't think we are a nation of masochists then why do so many people watch BoR?

Stephanie

rather, it suggests that each self should examine his own bigotries, which we do all have)

Ayup. Navel gazing. Manginitis attack. whatevs... it really shows a need for a thorough scrub in all those hard to reach places. And some Nugenix. In heavy doses.

Stephanie

If you don't think we are a nation of masochists then why do so many people watch BoR?

BOOM and DOOM.

Like a Viking!

Ignatz

I don't have any bigotries. I am perfectly content to accept how abysmally ignorant, wrong, stupid and oafish so many of my fellow men are.

Jack is Back!

The Great Pretender

Guess who. LOL

Stephanie

The fact is -- I think this is so important, and, even though we all kind of know it, we all frequently forget it -- people are not convinced by logic or empirical proofs most of the time.

Some of the time, yes.

But most of the time, here's how people are convinced of something:

Because someone who is much like them, and who they acknowledge as being Part of Their Tribe, tells them it's true, and so they think, ah, well maybe that's true then.

One point I've made about arguing while angry is this: It's impossible to convince someone who's not angry of anything when one is oneself angry.

It's not because the angry person is irrational. Very often an angry person -- while feeling the irrationality of emotion -- is able to adequately conjure up all the arguments his Not Angry self composed at an earlier time, when he was as as calm and cool as as penguin smoking a reefer.

It's not that the angry person can't make logical sense. He frequently makes very good logical sense, especially when he's just arguing things he's long stated or written while in a less angry state.

The trouble is, the Angry Person is of a different tribe than the Not Angry Person -- at least for the duration of that argument.

That is, the argument will fail, not because it's "not logical," but because a necessary precondition to any kind of persuasion is seeming a great deal like the person one wishes to convince.

And when one's angry, and the other's not, the other just is on an entirely different emotional wavelength. He sees the Angry person as "different," and, ergo, not to be trusted. **

True to form (as Miss M notes) the two of spades/seven of clubs hand has been doubled down on, so any douching evidently didn't work.

Rick B

NK,

In 2010 Gallup had leaned party I.D. at 44D 45R while they have it at 42D 40R today. Rasmussen had the unleaned party I.D. at 34R 35D in August '10. The current unleaned I.D. is 28R 30D.

It's difficult to draw any conclusion from the current generic due to the nature of the shift to pure Independent from both directions. There are many more "None of the Above" responses this year than in '10.

I'm not up to making a blind folded Swag this year. "None of the Above" is just too big a factor.

NKtryin' tologin

RickB-- as usual RickB, thanks for filling in the important data points.

Jack is Back!

Rick B,

Based on my time here, I would say that "none of the above" who vote swing toward the Repubs since they are most likel;y not the reason they have that opinion.

Captain Hate

Plus, after the 08 elections, there has been waaaay too much estrogen in the ONT.

Ugh, if you catch me posting on the ONT call Cleveland 911 because I've totally lost it.

ace lecturing baldilocks, a black woman veteran from either Oakland or LA, on being black is as bad as it gets. I've commended her before for ensuring that he didn't make too big of an ass out of himself on matters of race but this time he had the bit in his mouth and there was no veering him off from the one true path.

I see Beasts joined the pile on.

Jack is Back!

DoT,

What kind of grades at the Naval Academy does ot take to get your flag and then end up being the press person for the DoD?

Captain Hate

Some quality work being done by Steph and Porch re the Ewok.

narciso

Ewok is still chewing on the nun nub

Stephanie

What's government's is the government's and what is yours is the government's edition #234237...

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/08/st-charles-man-ticketed-for-improper-parking-in-his-driveway-video/

Any bets on what they would do if you didn't mow their strip of grass? In this situation, I'd send the city a bill in response. Goose, gander.

narciso

it's striking how experience doesn't faze him:


http://minx.cc:1080/?post=350972

Captain Hate

He's trying to pick up the few stragglers who weren't offended earlier.

Jane

The idea of MM getting banned on a conservative site doesn't compute.

Ace was pretty sexist when I posted with him on a board, long before AOS. Maybe "sexist" is the wrong word - he just wouldn't have anything to do with any chick. We were invisible for the most part.

Jane

Anyone think Wolfe has a chance today?

narciso

pixy is a cruel mistress, I get a redirect 3/4
with that software

Ignatz

-- he just wouldn't have anything to do with any chick --

Perhaps what you witnessed, Jane, is the second half of the Newtonian equal and opposite reaction.

Captain Hate

Jane, I think Wolf could win but it would be a long shot.

Miss Marple

Fox says that Roberts' people say it could be close, but Fox could be hyping that to get eyeballs.

sbw

It's difficult to draw any conclusion from the current generic

True dat. I don’t respond to ANY phone poll. They are warped, abused, and misused.

Jane on Ipad

Don't know Iggy, but it's his loss.

Ignatz

A lost opportunity with Jane is a loss for any guy. :)

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Wilson/Plame