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October 28, 2014

Comments

Old Lurker

Me again?

henry

AT MIT it could be robots doing naughty things.

henry

The missing question is who is doing these assaults? Same sex or opposite?

RickB

It's the lack of the electron microscopes necessary to identify the evidence that will prove every student - male and female - to have been victims of nanorape. I suggest a complete quarantine for four years (32 years for Ivy League schools).

It may prove necessary to raze the schools and salt the earth where they stood. I'm very willing to volunteer for such a project.

matt

fifth!

MarkO

If I were at all interested in the truth of this, I'd start with this: "among undergraduates who replied to a survey."

It is an invalid survey.

rse

I still remember asking my uncle who went there telling me that in the 5th semester calc class there they invented new theorems. Seemed traumatic to me but he was psyched.

I did not like my one and only semester. Cruel use of 8AM spring semester Freshman year. Much more fun to learn to spike watermelons and frisbee golf.

Old Lurker

Henry, as a tech guy I know you see how close the industry is to accomplishing just what you say in your 10:11.

Bori

MarkO,

That is the problem with all surveys and polls. They are trying to draw correlations based on small samples.

Polls try to address this but surveys are especially difficult because many ignore them while those apt to answer the survey may be more motivated to do so.

Jeff Dobbs

The NYT is textual assault.

henry

OL, the Japanese are way ahead of MIT on that particular application (at least publically).

sbw

I say "common sense and personal responsibility", they say "blaming the victim"

And I say “Big Data Bullsh*t”™ or "BDB"™ because such statistical evidence is political fodder while individual evidence points to a crime.

Sexual assault statistics are used as a political tool to push identity group special legislation. Real sexual assault to an individual is, and ought to be, a crime that applies to anyone, anytime, anywhere.

Progs should be careful what they want to legislate because a law can just as easily turn back on them, and then where will they hide.

rse

The deliberate misinterpretation of civil rights laws continues since it is easier than amendment or gaining a judicial majority. http://www.otlcampaign.org/sites/default/files/civil-rights-letter-10_27_14.pdf is letter that went out today that civil rights laws require all students be educated equitably.

Only sel is equitable. Not a mention of the Common Core either, but 21st century skills and deep learning make it.

Old Lurker

I know that, Henry. It will be the final nail in Japan's demographic coffin.

NKreBootDeux

OL-- Japanese demographics and pleasure robots. There will be fewer Japanese... but happier Japanese.

Porchlight

New WaPo/ABC generic ballot: R+6.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2014/10/28/National-Politics/Polling/release_371.xml

So we have WSJ/NBC R+11 and WaPo/ABC R+6. On the flip side, CNN has D+1 and Ras has R+2.

Here's the thing, though: unlike 2012, it's not a national election. Most of the critical Senate races are in Romney states. What do you suppose the generic ballot looks like in the battleground states? Interesting that no one is telling us, huh?

Beasts of England

Two robots one cup.

henry

NK, given China's gender imbalance it may be an excellent export market for Japan. Fewer, happier, and richer Japanese.

Thomas Collins

My father instilled in me the ethic that one didn't take advantage of a vulnerable lady (vulnerable whether due to booze or drugs or whatever) because it is unmanly to do so. I realize that ethic would be met today with derision not only by so-called feminists, but also by men with supposed "game". But the reality is that this ethic is the one that would best address this issue.

As for women, the notion that advising a woman to watch herself at parties and while out and about is blaming the victim is so preposterous on its face that I would think that "elite" academic and coastal and media prog gentries are the only ones who could be so stupid as to hold this view.

Janet

Interesting that no one is telling us, huh?

Yeah...I've thought that too. I posted that I was polled in early Oct. by Quinnipiac on the Virginia election. No poll results posted yet though. I keep looking.
the last poll results posted were from Sept.

maryrose

Porch:
I want to thank you for your optimistic polling updates.
I am nervous like Janet and JamesD. but determined to stay upbeat.
I believe we will win the Senate but that Georgia will go to a run-off.Best case for us because dems will be discouraged that they have already lost the Senate. I just don't see Perdue at this point getting to 50%.
I think the sleeper races are New Hampshire and Virginia.
NC could go either way but I am relying on HIt to give us the straight scoop. In any event -we are in for a long night. I am encouraged by Walker. He has managed to fight back the progs and I believe dems are trying to depress the vote by repubs by pretending Burke is already a winner.
As for henry and Walker-I say -once more into the breach...

Iggy

--unwanted sexual contact, from touching to penetration, “involving use of force".......When asked why, more than half said that they did not think it was serious enough to report and that no harm was intended, and nearly half said they thought they were partly at fault.--

So how exactly do they define "use of force"? More than half seem to think sexual assault is something other than the survey guys do. Seems like the old pastime of trying to get to second base is being criminalized.
Reminds me of the old Tubes song;
Don't Touch Me There

NKreBootDeux

ThomasC@10:46-- did you play the Pinto character in the Animal House movie?

As to your second point. I guess I should admire my daughter's outspoken common sense on that issue. She starts with the assumption that all of today's young men are unmanly, until individual ones she meets prove otherwise.

maryrose

I think the battleground states are an un-nerving picture for the dems. They are scared to death to post any negative polling there for fear of depressing the already low dem turnout.
HIT;
I will say this about dem early turn-out in NC. Perhaps on election day it gives the republicans a better idea of how many votes will be needed to beat them I anticipate Heavy repub voting on Election day itself.

Eric in Boise

Two robots one cup.

Gear oil. Ew.

Iggy

Mookie Blaylock; three years in prison for killing a mother of five in head on collision.

GMax

That WaPo/ABC poll above linked by Porch above tells us this:

In nine states with competitive Senate races, voters express a preference for voting for the Republican in the House election by a margin of 57 percent to 39 percent.

They don't tell us the nine states but we can get pretty close just guessing. And this poll starts out with a D + 8 adult sample and gets down to D + 3 at likely voter. I think the odds of this election being a D + 3 election are close to zero, but that explains the wildly divergent end results. Just take away from this one that Independents are breaking to Republicans by about a 2 to 1 margin, which more than overcomes their D + 3 sample...

Iggy

The New Republic continues to impress with its stunningly stupid writers as one of the party of "Macaca" and "real rape" decries the GOP's "reliance" on gaffes as political fodder, regarding the horselaughs over Hillary's jobs comment the other day.

Porchlight

You're welcome, maryrose. I am nervous too. The polling shows modest GOP leads in nearly every important race, but we just don't know what the margins are going to look like or what the Dem fraud machines are going to be able to do.

Janet, that is weird about the Quinny poll. Spotty polling is disappointing. IMO we have a ton of IA, CO, NH, and NC polling in October because those are the tightest races and the ones the Dems have the most chance of saving. But most people would not have put IA or CO on that list a few months ago - they'd probably have guessed AR or LA instead.

It's going to be a nailbiter. I think we can pick up 7 seats on Tuesday (MT SD WV AR CO IA AK) and hold KS and KY if we have a good night, and GA and LA will go to runoff.

NC or NH would be a major bonus. They are both neck and neck so it could happen, but coin flips are nervewracking.

With the IL gov race being so tight, could it be possible there will be fewer Cook Countians available for bus travel to WI?

Iggy

I agree with Reince Priebus on this one;
Hillary Clinton not really good at politics.

Porchlight

Good catch GMax! I like those numbers.

henry

Porch, Cook County runs tour buses with many stops. Plenty of time for multiple votes in multiple states.

Porchlight

I was afraid of that, henry.

I was born in Cook County. What an embarrassment.

Iggy

--With the IL gov race being so tight, could it be possible there will be fewer Cook Countians available for bus travel to WI?--

Porch, Porch, Porch; with today's efficient and comfortable motor coaches it is mere child's play to vote in IL in the morning, head up the road to WI midday, and be back in Chitown for the evening vote.

Iggy

Curses.

James D.

I think we could usefully apply RickB's formula as laid out @ 10:19 - four year quarantine, followed by ground-razing and earth-salting - to the New Republic. And the NYT. And the WaPo. And everything within a radius of, say, 50 miles of wherever Vox is based out of (it's the only way to be sure).

Captain Hate

The New Republic continues to impress with its stunningly stupid writers

For people who continually contemplate their navels, the Children of the Cornhole are stunningly lacking in self awareness.

Btw Levin was skewering Fat RINO Bastard for his torpedo job on Walker.

GMax

Just in case someone doubts that the WaPo poll has as start a D + 8 adult sample, here is the response to the question, "Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a..."

Democrat

32

Republican

24

Independent

36

Other

5

No opinion

3

aged lurker

Porchlight, what are you thinking? EARLY AND OFTEN.

And bless you Thomas Collins.

Beasts of England

Let's quantify our predictions, shall we?

Beasts predicts:

Senate: 52-R
House: 243-R

GMax

Monkey island flinging poo again, this time at each other! Laugh outloud, this was the great Senate pick up hope about 2 weeks ago:

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Rick Weiland accused his own political party of trying to undermine his campaign in a striking news conference Monday.

Weiland said the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's ads attacking Republican incumbent Mike Rounds have backfired and hurt him.

"You put negative on a candidate and you put your disclosure at the bottom that says 'Paid for by the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee,' the Democratic candidate's going to get blamed for that," Weiland said.

But Weiland went a step further and said this wasn't just an inadvertent side effect of the negative ads. He said it was deliberate — an attempt to sabotage him and boost independent Larry Pressler.

"My national party — that I'm a member of — (was) trying to drive votes to Larry Pressler and trying to drive up my negatives," Weiland said.

A spokesman for the DSCC declined to comment on Weiland's charges.

Sound like a bitter disgruntled candidate about to get beat like a drum? Sure does to me...

Porchlight

I know, I know, but....enthusiasm, etc. Are the Cook Countians going to be showing up in the same numbers as past years? Dem youth vote is down across the board - AA, Hispanic, white etc.

henry

Let's quantify our predictions, shall we?

Beer: 2 bph, accelerating as results come in

Hangover: cured by sight of progs in distress (worked wonders in recall).

Porchlight

Are we talking Election Night, Beasts, or when it's all said and done in January (GA runoff)?

52-R Senate sounds right to me (post runoff). Hoping for better.
I'll go with 245-R in the House.

henry

Porch, Cook County is a function of SEIU / AFL-CIO spending -- participants are paid to tour. Given the public vendetta vs Walker, that spending will be higher than usual.

clarice

Are young women turning into fragile flowers on campuses everywhere? I remember walking early one evening near Lake Mendota in Madison. Two men and a women approached from the opposite direction. One of the men reached out and grabbed my breasts and then continued walking away. I turned around and though he was considerably larger than I , I pounded him on the back hard with my fists, leaving him sore and embarrassed in front of his friends.

Captain Hate

Don't worry about the Senate races. Kevin McCarthy plans on passing a budget deal during the lame duck session in some wonderful GOPe strategery:

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2014/10/kevin-mccarthy-has-some-soggy-white-bread-for-you

Beasts of England

Good point, Porch! I was predicting election night. The Peach State would be 53 in my calculus.

rich@gmu

>>>50 miles of wherever Vox is based<<<

Dupont Circle ... YIKES!!!

afternoon all.

NKreBootDeux

BoE -- 53 Senate? pray God you're right, God willing Hagan and Nunn both lose and HildaBeast's old white lady Lib project is stopped cold.

Porchlight

Oh dear, Cap'n - I can't worry about that now.

henry, I know the money will be there, I'm just wondering how many will line up for it. Yeah, it's money, but sometimes money isn't enough get Pookie off the couch.

GMax

Coming attraction?

TOKYO—Japan has joined a small group of countries in which investors are in the unusual position of actually paying the government to lend it money—a situation brought on by ultra-easy monetary policies that have flipped bond investing on its head by pushing yields into negative territory.

Iggy

It's afternoon somewhere, rich. :)

Beasts of England

@NK: Other than my tip the other night re: LSU, I'm awful at predictions. What I see is plenty of apathy from the LIVs, some real anger at the current administration, polls that are insanely weighted for the left, and a rather complete failure of all the usual prog memes, e.g., war on wymynz, race hustling, minimum wage.

We'll see, said the blind man.

Captain Hate

No, Porch, it shouldn't change anybody's voting but it's a quick heads up on what can be expected from the tone deaf GOPe. Kevin McCarthy's existence as House majority leader was a slap in the face for the people who overwhelmingly sent Cantor packing so this coming from him shouldn't be unexpected.

James D.

Rich, is that where they're based?

I guess the 50 mile radius would get me and Janet and clarice, too.

Still, it'd almost be worth it...

Dublindave


As a Liberal, I absolutely loved the fact that we were able to frighten the shit out of Gov. Christ Christie to such a a degree he had to turn tail and run like a little french girl that had her pigtails pulled.

Yeah,that's strong and decisive leadership if ever I saw it.

This is why i'm a Democrat. The ability to bully power full people into doing what the heck you want them to do.


Apparently,what happened was Christie heard Rachel Maddow was doing a segment on Christie's locking up of an non-ebola carrier and butterball rang MSNBC and begged the Maddow show to leave him alone. They said no,butterball shit his pants and turned tail and ran.


Whose next?????

Thomas Collins

51-49 Senate, GOP picks nets plus 5 in House. I'm hoping on Nov. 5th there will be reason to mock me for timidity.

The girls I grew up with, clarice, would have been less polite. The pounding would have taken place in a part of the gent's anatomy different from the back.

I wasn't introduced to the notion of fragile girls until high school and college. The middle school gals I grew up with scared the daylights out of the guys, including the guys who became Mafia "security" types.

Iggy

Here's the actual McCarthy memo.
I didn't see where he called for a lame duck budget, CH.
Will they disappoint? Yes.
Will there come sufficient grass roots pressure for them to disappoint less than we fear? We'll see.

Iggy

--Whose next?????--

Your next!!!!!

BTW, most here agree with you on Christie, WeeDavey. Welcome to the club.

rich@gmu

JamesD-

Klein's operation is ... his group is part of a few hundred internet media properties ... brought to you by Koz and Armstrong. Think I saw Klein over at Tyson's a few weeks back.

now it is the afternoon! too early, I still want to be in bed.

jimmyk

Seemed traumatic to me but he was psyched.

rse, MIT had a very high suicide rate back in the day. Sometime around 1980 they decided to address that by encouraging more student life beyond the classroom. I think they succeeded, but it surprises me how lefty it is, considering the engineering core, but I suspect that's mainly the faculty (Chomsky et al) and administration.

narciso

Good god, even a good prog like Lippmann would be embarassed, at what Croley's cribsheet has become,

Rupert's Gazette, as well as Carlos Slim's is most dissapointing except at the Op Ed page, with few exceptions,

NKreBootDeux

ThomasC-- the middle school girls were in Providence, no? So fear makes perfect sense.

GMax

Mega Boom

SUSA out with a new Ga Poll:

Perdue 48%
Nunn 45%

This is a major reversal from their last poll of two weeks ago, where they had Nunn + 2.

Porchlight

Man, that's great, GMax.

I might have to get a hotel room Tuesday night so I can watch returns in peace. My kids will never leave me alone. Last time I had a peaceful (and happy) Election Night was 2004 when my oldest was a baby asleep in her crib.

narciso

Beutler, must be on Hagan's staff:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/gop-senate-candidate-called-uncle-tom-hillaryhagan-rally-nc_817656.html?nopager=1

Some Guy

I'll never catch up, but I had strange dream last night.

I dreamed that days before a critical election, Chris Christie injected himself into the zeitgeist, and unwittingly provided cover for the White House.

Whew, good thing I woke up...

Captain Hate

Here you go, Iggy:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-27/a-nonsensical-republican-budget-plan

Porchlight

Ugh, Some Guy. Christie is just awful.

If it's true he's sabotaging Walker I will be hard pressed to vote for him even in the general (should the worst happen and he wins the nomination).

Porchlight

Anyone think Weh has a chance against Tom Udall in NM? All ground reports from NM have the GOP surging.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/10/27/poll_weh_gaining_on_udall_in_nm_senate_race_124455.html

RickB

Nothing in McCarthy's turtle food can be converted to prog fodder by the MFM to frighten the Lackwitz LIVs with dystopian fantasies. He's staying on task and the clear soup followed by thin gruel diet isn't going to change until after the Senate majority reorganization in December.

Porchlight

The Peach State would be 53 in my calculus.

That would make me very happy.

NKreBootDeux

Thank God this little twerp is convicted. Of course the Boston Jury took 4 days to do so: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/bombing-suspects-friend-convicted-of-lying-to-fbi/ar-BBbI0cO?ocid=iehp

GMax

Porch probably not, but Martinez is going to win in a laugher and she might drag in enough voters to make it closer than generally thought...

jimmyk

Whew, good thing I woke up...

I don't see any hurricanes in the forecast for the east coast, so we're safe there.

On the McCarthy lame duck budget: Is there a scenario with an R House and Senate that a government shutdown could actually be blamed on Obama and the Dems? I guess the senate Ds can prevent passage by filibuster, but won't that be on them? I realize that everything is always the Republicans' fault, but this seems a bigger stretch for the MSM to pull off.

Marlene

Kaci Hickox is in an "undisclosed location" somewhere in Maine.The media has staked out the house in Fort Kent,but there has been no activity there. The news anchor on the noon Portland TV news seemed annoyed to give any news about the nurse,nothing to see here,move along. By the way,Christie is coming to Maine this afternoon to campaign with Lepage. Good timing.

Some Guy

Porchlight,

It'll be interesting to see if he learned anything from his stunts in '12. He was on the Today Show this morning and wasn't as awful as I expected, and a talented politician should be able to play this to our advantage (unless their ego gets in the way).

GMax

senate Ds can prevent passage by filibuster

NOPE cant filibuster a budget the reconciliation rules are controlling.

NYT/CBS via YouGov says Abortion Barbie losing women by double digits.

The boat is taking on water below the waterline. Mayday, Mayday, Mayday. LOL

Porchlight

Some Guy, I just think his ego is too out of control. He reminds me of someone my husband works with who always has to boot stomp others in his quest for glory. He can't help himself.

GMax, I think you're right. Too bad. Weh seems like a good guy if not the strongest candidate.

Porchlight

I can't wait to see the final numbers on the Davis loss. Many sad prog faces in Austin next week.

Iggy

Yeah I read that yesterday CH and it links to a Politico story I linked concerning McCarthy a day or two ago.
Problem is it's the Politico guy who says McCarthy wants to pass a lame duck budget, not McCarthy himself. McCarthy is quoted as saying;

“If we are fortunate to have both majorities, take away any cliff you can have hanging out there,” McCarthy said, sitting in his SUV fiddling with an iPhone and Blackberry. “If you have a cliff, it takes attention away. Why put cliffs up that hold us back from doing bigger policy?”

which doesn't sound like the same thing.
An actual quote could change my mind and while I believe there are few if any limits to GOP stupidity I believe the same thing about "journalists' " mendacity.

BTW I'm also unconvinced there are any limits to the tedious, hair splitting nature of most of Ponnuru's columns.

narciso

no one bothers to read their own copy of Carlos Slim's

http://patterico.com/2014/10/28/new-york-times-doctor-in-nyc-was-not-symptomatic-new-york-times-doctor-in-nyc-was-symptomatic/#comment-1702296

Captain Hate

I guess the senate Ds can prevent passage by filibuster, but won't that be on them?

Therein lies the problem. McCarthy wants to use this as a way to prove that "we can govern" but the only way to do that is pass something that is a prog's fantasy list. Unless this is multi dimensional chess by having the next year Senate pass it and 404 veto it which puts it back in the same situation. The only way he can prove they can govern is by bending over on everything.

jimmyk

NOPE cant filibuster a budget the reconciliation rules are controlling.

Then a shutdown would be on Obama. R House and Senate pass a budget, Obama vetoes, government shuts down. So I'm baffled by the attempt to pass a lame-duck budget. What am I missing?

jimmyk

Didn't see iggy's and CH's posts. So it's the Politico fabulists I didn't take into account. I hope it's that and not the R 'bend over' reflex.

GMax

See the quote Iggy posted. I see nothing that says lame duck budget. Unless there is more, I will default to Politico being Democrats for Democrats and willing to make stuff up at will

RickB

jimmyk,

The changes made in Senate rules in December will determine whether the government shutdown BS is allowed to continue. We won't have any clear idea concerning whether a unified strategy for increasing the velocity of the broomstick and guiding it directly to the teepee exists until then.

I'll admit that "Go Turtles" is never going to be my favorite cheer it's been, IMO, the correct strategy while this President continues his application of the Merde Touch to the detriment of his party.

Captain Hate

I'm sure there are some in local races but can anybody remember a worse candidate for a major office than Wendy Davis? Her campaign has just been a series of trainwrecks that each by itself should sink her.

narciso

To Govern is too chose, to discriminate in priorities, how do they not understand this?

Jack is Back

I had the priviledge back in 1996 of being a guest lecturer in Mega-Project Management at the Civil Engineering graduate school at MIT for 6 sessions and a seminar over 3 days. Of course, all that resulted in was me getting a nice granite paperweight with the MIT insignia and every students CV for future employment possibilities.

I have seen better student life amenities in a YMCA'. The cafeteria was very ordinary and the bookstore extremely blah.

That said the overall intellect and inquiry was world class. Those kids weren't going to be flipping burgers but making the robots that will in the future.

For a great fictional account of the founding of MIT I suggest Mathew Pearl's "The Technologists". A terrific read.

matt

Just remember, it ain't over till it's over.

I will vote and then probably go to bed without watching. After the promise of Romney in '12 fell flat on its face somewhere around 6:00PM PDT I have my doubts.

The level of stupidity and mendacity is at an all time high.

narciso

that candidate in S. Carolina, of course, the grizzled Ewok would disagree.

I think it was Jamie Dupree on Herman Cain's radio show, that noted the relative undercount of Republicans v. Democrats and Independents in the early vote in N. Carolina,

Pagar

""My national party — that I'm a member of — (was) trying to drive votes to Larry Pressler and trying to drive up my negatives,"

How could anyone drive up the negatives of a Democrat politician? They already have every negative there is.
--------------------------------------------------
Here's some thing good for NC voters.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/10/elbert_guillory_strikes_again_comments.html

Check the comments for a comment from "Antoninus".it is the 7th one down right now sorted by best. It offers the best explanation I have heard for how the Blacks got suckered into voting for the party that has always treated them the worse.

matt

Looks like more former senior administration officials are piling on Obama for his screwups in Iraq and Syria. Frontline will be airing their opinions tonight. Even PBS is deserting him.

GMax

Nevada through Monday. Based on 2010 vote totals, about 30% of voters have now voted:

Rep 46.2%
Dem 37.7%
Oth 17.1%

RickB

Why shouldn't the House pass a short continuing resolution in November? What purpose would be served by doing otherwise?

Porchlight

Wow, matt - Frontline.

GMax, those are great numbers. I think almost 40% of the CO ballots are in as well. GOP still leading by registration:

Oct 28: 778k ballots returned

42.7% R
32.2% D

GMax

And Colorado:

CO Early Voting update.

Rep 331,723 (42.7%)
Dem 250,841 (32.2%)
Oth 195,047 (25.1%)

This is most likely around 37% of the final vote count, again based on 2010.

Captain Hate

I'm trying to think who Wendy Davis would appeal to and the only people I can think of are losers who hate men, children, handicapped people and particularly successful people.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Wilson/Plame