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October 20, 2014

Comments

lyle

First, but oddly not as satisfying as I'd hoped.

jimmyk

There's a life lesson in that, lyle.

James D.

well-regarded feminist writers

Well-regarded by whom?

Jeff Dobbs

Fourth! You know why that's exciting?

Some Guy

Who gave Mr. Maguire the new espresso maker?

jimmyk

But my much bigger objection is this: we are seeing a 6% fabricated charge rate in a system that by wide agreement discourages women from coming forward. is there any reason at all to think that the fabricated charge rate will go down, or even remain constant, in an environment that is much more supportive of the accuser?

Excellent, TM. This is an example of what in economics is called the

jimmyk

oops, to continue:

Excellent, TM. This is an example of what in economics is called the Lucas Critique, which basically says that statistics gathered under one policy regime can't be assumed to carry over into another.

In any case, 6% seems high to me.

lyle

8th ain't that much of a thrill, either.

Danube on iPad

Looks like the folks walking out on Obama were all African-American:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2799603/crowds-walk-obama-speech-rare-campaign-trail-appearance.html#ixzz3Ghx6l1a6

Jeff Dobbs

Michelle observed: "What I notice about men, all men, is that their order is me, my family, God is in there somewhere, but me is first. ... And, for women, me is fourth, and that's not healthy."

Since I was fourth, I feel camraderie with Michelle and all well-regarded feminist writers everywhere.

Jeff Dobbs

Oh, since Michelle Goldberg is a subject of the post - I need to clarify that the Michelle in my comment is the First Lady.

RickB

I know this is just prep for Looking for Ms Red Squitch but "studies" by credentialed morons are approaching weightlessness as political fodder. I suppose the garbage might have some utility as reinforcement for prog peck 'n drool Vulavarians but the Lackwitz Sisters are going to be focused on their BOzocare premiums, deductibles and copays when the Squitch comes out of her teepee and mounts her broom.

Some Guy

So if I understand Ms. Goldberg correctly, she is endorsing that for every 100 accusations of rape, 6 innocent people will get crushed under the thumb of "justice" regardless of their innocence.

How...uhmm... progressive.

Free Mumia!!

NKreBootDeux

My contracts law professor had a colorful anecdote about Edward Bennett Williams teaching DC Crim law at Georgetown law School and discussing the statutory elements of 'rape' in class. Other than that, I got nothin' on 'rape'.

henry

Some Guy, 6 will be crushed by flat out false accusation. It is not clear how many others would be convicted given due process (he said she said when both are drunk is a different order problem, but not necessarily rape, as is I said yes but didn't mean yes yes).

Captain Hate

The beclowning continues:

http://weaselzippers.us/202996-shot-new-wendy-davis-smear-ad-suggests-greg-abbott-opposed-to-interracial-marriage-chaser-abbotts-wife-is-latina/

RickB

"6 innocent people will get crushed"

There are no innocent males in Vulvaria. There never have been and there never will be. They do allow tethered or leashed geldings and mules to exist.

For now.

Frau Nebenan

Free Mumia!!

Free or not, keep him in prison.

daddy

I'm confused.

We only have 11 Million illegal aliens in the country , correct? That's the number we've heard now for forever and ever, right?

So how come the President is secretly Ordering Up to 34 MILLION blank 'green cards' and work permits ahead of Obama illegal immigrant 'amnesty'

That doesn't make any sense. Why make 34 Million Green Cards when we only have 11 Million Illegals in the country total?

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services plans to seek a vendor to produce as many as 34 million blank work permits and 'green cards' – the paperwork that authorizes illegal immigrants to live in the United States – as the White House prepares to issue an executive order after the Nov. 4 midterm elections.

Very confusing to me.

Plus just think of how hard that's going to hurt women like the First Lady of Oregon. How are young gals like her going to make $5,000 in future falsely marrying Nigerian illegals if the President is just going to be handing these things out like Trick or Treat candy?

So it's bad math, plus a War on Women.


cathyf
...accusations are false-false; not just unprovable, not just subsequently dropped, but (as best as can be verified, sometimes by a recantation by the "victim") actually fabricated.
I'm not willing to put the recantations in the "false-false" category. If an accuser says at one point an accusation is true and at a different point the accuser says that the accusation is false, we know for certain that the accuser has a history of lying about whether the events happened or not.

If you can't imagine multiple scenarios where a victim would recant a true accusation, then you just aren't thinking very hard.

Bori

SG:

At least 6, because the numbers will change depending on what the definition of rape is used.

I was going to say "Free Hurricane" but that has already been accomplished.

RickB

Daddy,

Obama may order issuance of new green cards to everyone with LPR status and include illegals. That would account for the large print order.

Danube on iPad

"contrary to what men’s rights activists claim"

Anybody here know any men's rights activists?

jimmyk

If you can't imagine multiple scenarios where a victim would recant a true accusation, then you just aren't thinking very hard.

That's certainly true, but of course there are plenty of scenarios where someone will not recant a false accusation. I took TM's number as at least getting a rough idea of the order of magnitude, not a precise measure or a lower bound.

narciso

well what difference does it make:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/10/obama-ebola-czar-has-no-plans-to-travel-to-dallas-us-ebola-epicenter/

daddy

Here's a photo from the UK Mail with a nice blurb under the pic:


A campaign worker, center, attempts to encourage people to stop leaving while President Obama was speaking on Sunday

Looks like intimidation by a racist White guy if you ask me.

anonamom

This whole crazy "college rape culture stuff" is based on a study done at two schools that include "unwanted touching" as sexual assault.
We are talking some guy patting a passing fanny here.
Maybe uncouth, but an assault?
60% of the "victims" had been drinking.

What more can I say--though I will second Megan McCardle's position:
"If you've been raped, call the police."

Captain Hate

not a precise measure or a lower bound.

There are no precise measures in social science.

RickB

daddy,

Looks like he forgot to check his privilege. At least he put down his whip for a moment - or is there another Democrat handing him a fire hose just off camera?

NKreBootDeux

Daddy-- what a metaphor for the modern Dem gangster organization that photo is. The pasty faced Hopkins/U Maryland grad begging black voters to stay on the plantation so he can keep his Party job.

Marlene

daddy,I'm wondering if you've heard anything in Alaska about a book written by the sister of Chris McCandless. Carine McCandless has written about the violent and dysfunctional family life that led her brother on the path to "self-discovery" and his eventual death in the old Fairbanks city bus. The book's title is "The Wild Truth,the Untold Story of Sibling Survival." Jon Krakauer wrote the forward.
Anyway,I was searching the book titles for a Kindle book and noticed the sister's book in new release titles. Will people in Alaska be receptive to her story?

Old Lurker

Cross posting:

(SBW)"...but NK was busy making money..."

NK is a lawyer who presumably bills by the hour.

NK is always present at JOM, a place well known for deadbeats and therefore untouchable by said bills.

It follows that NK cannot possibly be busy making money.

Discuss.

Old Lurker

"men's rights"

Joke, right?

daddy

Ha!

Mark Begich joins the team of mum Dems, who are unwilling to say if they voted for Obama in 2012:

ANOTHER Senate Dem Candidate Refuses To Say If They Voted For Obama [VIDEO]

I doubt I'll be seeing this story in the Anchorage Daily News, but I'll do may part making sure it gets air time on local Talk Radio.

NKreBootDeux

Well OL-- when you're in the office or at meetings for 12 hours, and bill for 7.5hrs it works out. I wish I had a more interesting life.

Old Lurker

Bill those 7.5 hours out at a 60% higher rate (12/7.5) and your life will get real interesting, real fast.

NKreBootDeux

Well, dull and uncomplicated is good sometimes ....

Old Lurker

If anybody posts that picture from Fox of Kim Kardashian in her blue jean shorts they must be banned from here for at least one year.

Marlene

Howie Carr just gave a shout out to clarice! He quoted from her American Thinker article!

daddy

Yippee! On catch-up I'm only 3 threads behind now.

Gotta' go do some snow shoveling, so please somebody grab TM and keep him away from the LapTop.

henry

Ebola czar overpopulation is our #1 problem. (per our Illionois lurker).

henry

An gramatically correct link might help.

Old Lurker

So Henry, looks like Obama hired the right guy to achieve his objective. You gotta problem with that?

anonamom

This thread is already Instalaunched.
It's like live TV! Everybody behave--no drinking til five.

rich@gmu

Posted by: Old Lurker | October 20, 2014 at 03:27 PM -

Please don't do it Iggy. Please don't.

afternoon all.

On the topic thread. Don't date women from school. Simple enough.

I've got nothing.

I do recall a survey from a few schools (Clemson was one) where students and faculty were complaining about the contents and requirements. I wondered at the time if it was going to be turned into fodder. Not sure if this is the same one.

rich@gmu

anyway, would help if I read the articles.

good grief.

and a yikes ... progs won't be happy until campus life is as happy as a north Korean dance troop.

rich@gmu

>>>An gramatically correct

thisclose henry! lol ...

Iggy

--"What I notice about men, all men, is that their order is me, my family, God is in there somewhere, but me is first.--

I've noticed that women, all women, stereotype, men, all men, this way. I find it offensive and consider it a form of macroaggression.

Moose needs to meet a better class of men besides Dems, all Dems.

henry

yeah Rich, and I can't spel neider.

peter

The party of Bill Clinton, Anthony Weiner, JFK and Teddy Kennedy seiziing the high road on rape. Too precious.

narciso

so another 'splunge' Democrat, it's bugus, henry,

Iggy

A link to the offensive Kim Boo-tay.
I'd much rather see her dubious fashion choices than that pretentious, pipsqueak thug she's walking next to.

Old Lurker

At least you posted it via a link, Iggy, so that means you beat the expulsion on a technicality.

narciso

then there's the Penelope Cruz pic I put in the LUN. from the weekend,

Paul Zrimsek

So the only thing a man has to do to stay out of legal hot water, according to Tara Culp-Ressler, is know how a woman is thinking without having to be told? That's a mighty comfort in hard times.

jimmyk

Moose needs to meet a better class of men besides Dems, all Dems.

Yeah, it's really tough to figure out how she might have gotten that impression about men. That she extrapolated it to all men is so loaded with irony that it's like an irony black hole, if such an expression is allowed.

NKreBootDeux

Personally, I think the Michelle 'men' quote is completely predictable. What else would a woman think after being married to a world class narcissist.

rich@gmu

thank goodness.

One other point on the topic that I don't hear much about. Does the campus reporting requirements and quasi-judicial proceedings make it more likely that serial offenders will get away with their crimes (as a matter of law enforcement) until such time the assaults get so bad real law enforcement resources are brought to bear?

In VA, there is a current case at UVA of a missing female student and the suspect had previous disciplinary trouble at least at one school. He was an employee at the UVA hospital and he is now a suspect in 2, possibly 3, disappearances of women students. If instead of his case being handled by the school, it was handled by the state as a crime, would he have been caught and prosecuted earlier?

There is another case (not sure if it has been solved yet) of an aggressive predator at the UF and given what I had read previously about the case, I suspect the assailant was a previously a student.

Robert Schwarz

What I don't get is I've heard time and time again that the numbers are probably far higher because a lot of women won't report a rape... Yet we keep hearing stories of women reporting rapes that didn't happen.

I think the whole debate should start with prosecution of false charges. Once that is removed entirely from the debate let the law (not the universities) deal with the rapists.

Pagar a bacon, ham and sausage supporter

Thoughts of a:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/10/this_lesbians_daughter_has_had_enough_comments.html#disqus_thread

Frau Sittenpolizei

Return of the vice squad? I thought it was the prudish Republicans that want to control sexual activity. The Dems are now controlling dating. How long from the campus to TV and then Main Street?

NKreBootDeux

This quote comes from a waPo story about the recent Jack the Ripper 'unmasked' story. Anybody want to make an irony observation about WaPo approving of this quote:

"So now, it looks like all the sleuths may still have their work cut out for them in identifying the Ripper. “One can only applaud those willing to take a scientific approach to the Jack the Ripper mystery,” wrote casebook.org. “But remember — the beauty of science is that it can be independently tested and verified. And as it stands now, [the] claims must be taken with a heavy dose of salt.”

Jim Miller

Two interesting, and possibly relevant, facts:

Some years ago, I read that male jurors are somewhat more likely to vote to convict in rape cases than women jurors. (My tentative explanation for that pattern is that men understand that men can be brutes, and women understand that women don't always tell the truth. But it could be that men are just more ready to convict, in general.)


In the original version of "Vagina Monologues", that very feminist play, a girl who was underage was seduced by an older woman. In other words, the play showed, approvingly, a statuatory rape.

rich@gmu

Posted by: Frau Sittenpolizei | October 20, 2014 at 04:31 PM-

lol ... the state picking our partners. YIKES!!!

Deoxy

Professional opinions and experience on false rape claims vary, but every study I've ever seen that wasn't just OBVIOUS crap has a number higher than 6%. The lowest I recall seeing that was vaguely believable (judging by methods, not results) was 10%.

Heck, the Navy had one where it was over 30%, and that was PROVEN false claims. And that's not even the highest.

Just the "we know beyond a reasonable doubt that this is completely made up" number is WAY too high, and that's not including the "we can't know one way or the other" cases. This does not lead me to believe that women, as a group, are any more honest than men, as a group.

People lie. Welcome to humanity.

Inquiring

Some interesting stuff about false rape that puts that 6% number in the "Far less than it actually is" category.

Another study, https://www.ncjrs.gov/txtfiles/dnaevid.txt shows that Well, of 28 individuals who were accused, then convicted by juries, all 28 were innocent.

Also, in the footnotes of that same study: "Every year since 1989, in about 25 percent of the sexual assault cases referred to the FBI where results could be obtained (primarily by State and local law enforcement), the primary suspect has been excluded by forensic DNA testing. Specifically, FBI officials report that out of roughly 10,000 sexual assault cases since 1989, about 2,000 tests have been inconclusive (usually insufficient high molecular weight DNA to do testing), about 2,000 tests have excluded the primary suspect, and about 6,000 have "matched" or included the primary suspect.1 The fact that these percentages have remained constant for 7 years, and that the National Institute of Justice's informal survey of private laboratories reveals a strikingly similar 26-percent exclusion rate, strongly suggests that postarrest and postconviction DNA exonerations are tied to some strong, underlying systemic problems that generate erroneous accusations and convictions."

So, that study suggests a false accusation rate, or at least arrest rate for sexual assaults, to be around the 25% mark.

Worth noting is that even if false rape allegations are at 6-8% (the same tired, low balled number the people claiming false allegations do not happen always throw out) that is still 4x higher than any other false allegation for every other crime. Per this FBI study http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/1996/96sec2.pdf unfounded rape allegations average 8% while all other false crime allegations average 2%. Note, unfounded means ones that investigation determines there is a lack of evidence to support a claim of a crime being committed, but are not allegations that are considered "proven" false (as in no DNA evidence or recanting of testimony, etc); that is just how the FBI classifies their crimes.

The most interesting study, by Eugene Kanin: http://sf-criminaldefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/KaninFalseRapeAllegations.pdf His methodology was very interesting, in that he only used an urban community that would classify a rape allegation as false if the woman admitted she had lied, and then they followed up with an investigation to make sure that the woman was not being coerced into recanting. Their number of false rape allegations? 41%.

False rape accusations are much higher than 6%, and why should they not be? Even without the terrible laws and standards that are being enacted women have always been taken at their word more often than not when they cry rape. Very few people — even those vile, misogynistic, straight, white males— would disagree with the conclusion that rape is a reprehensible crime where the offenders should be punished to the full extent of the law if found guilty. It is a crime that strikes to the emotional core of the entire community, and not just the victims. Such crimes always result in giving the benefit of the doubt to the accuser even if evidence suggests otherwise.

Cecil Turner

Will people in Alaska be receptive to her story?

I doubt it. They (at least the ones I've talked to) are generally not very sympathetic toward McCandless, pegging him as an unprepared idiot committing slow suicide by stupidity. And in the land of self-reliance, that's a fairly major sin.

Assuming that as a going in position, I don't see why they'd care what drove him to it.

narciso

mind you, he hosts a show on Volodya's network, where they bave abolished the vote for local governors:

http://twitchy.com/2014/10/20/larry-king-gets-suspenders-in-a-wad-over-scotus-ruling-on-texas-voter-id/

Cat

An gramatically correct link might help.

Posted by: henry | October 20, 2014 at 03:42 PM

Work on a grammatically correct link first.

MarkO

I have more than a passing acquaintance with the phenomenon of hearing people who have sworn, under penalty of felony perjury, lying about nearly everything.

Anyone who believes that a human, male or female, would not lie about an event is a naïf. Putting such a notion in rules, regulations or law is simply granting power to a group or a person.

This campaign is only about power and elections.

TheOldman

"...all they have to do is stick to engaging in physical contact with people who are clearly receptive to it at the time.” Look up the Drew Sterrett case at UMich. The accuser was clearly receptive to it AT THE TIME but a few months later, after her mother found out, decided that she had not been receptive. That is the problem here, changing her mind weeks or months later.

NKreBootDeux

When this issue came up at a summer time family get together with Prog relations of ours, my 21 yo daughter listened to the solemn invocation of 'women's rights and fragilities' and when asked by the Progs what she thought, and she answered:

"girls lie all the time; they make a mistake, regret it and lie to everyone about it, including themselves."

The Progs all glared at me like it was my fault.... well I was smiling after she said it, so there's that.

Extraneus

"If you've been raped, call the police."

How does that benefit anyone?

MarkO

As M. Obama famously and fatuously said in 2008 about nearly everything: You know, this doesn't help my kids.

Skoot

"If you've been raped, call the police"

If you are being raped put two in the heart, one in the mind.

MarkO

I bring you Robert Montgomery Knight:

Bob Knight's analogy between handling stress and being raped, ... the Indiana men's basketball coach said, ''I think that if rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it. ...

kcom

All I know is that during the course of my four years in college several decades ago, about once a year (maybe twice) there would be a report that a student had been raped in a rather sparsely traveled part of the campus, i.e. down near the shore of Lake Michigan. It always made a big splash in the campus zeitgeist. But every single time, without exception, it turned out to be a false report. Not one real case happened. So don't tell me there are no false allegations of rape. The common factor seemed to be women with emotional problems who decided to work them out with a claim of rape as a first step.

clarice

Nest thing you know people will be demanding single sex colleges, a return to parietals and womens curfews and single sex dorms. Who could have imagined it?

Old Lurker

Could we at least get single sex bathrooms, Clarice?

anonamom

NK, my younger son told me six weeks into college:
"Mom, I think these girls are getting drunk so they can have sex and pretend they were too drunk to know what they were doing."

That was six years ago. Many of my friends who are mothers of sons have heard the same story.

And two have had to counsel friends of their sons to get lawyers for false accusations.

Yes, girls lie. Not infrequently.

NKreBootDeux

Using a 'single sex' public toilet on a college campus a few decades back was one of the most horrifying experiences of my life.

daddy

russian-tennis-official-suspended-for-calling-williams-sisters-brothers/

Can you imagine what hell would befall an American dude if he'd said this?

Lyle,

I seem to recall that that was exactly how tthe Media used to describe the Russian Press sisters.

At the 1960 Olympic in Rome both of them became the first to win gold medal in the same Olympiad. Irina took the gold in the 80 m hurdle final while Tamara claimed a silver in the discus and the gold in the shot.

There was gender speculation about the Press sisters that they have a “masculine looking”. Both of them had somewhat masculine physiques. Journalists referred often to the sisters critically as the Press Brothers, and it was often speculated that they were actually men or at the very least were receiving large doses of hormones.

Tamara and Irina were immediately withdrawn from the European Championships by the Soviet Union, lending much fuel to the speculation that they were in fact men competing as women.

Tamara:

Irina:


jimmyk

Yes, girls lie. Not infrequently.

The question (as suggested by TM's post) is whether under these new Stalinist regimes they will lie more or less than in the past. If the purpose of the lie is to damage the man (vengeance for a breakup, say), they will lie more, but if the purpose is to protect themselves, and they really don't want to ruin the guy's life, perhaps they will lie less frequently. Hard to say.

maryrose

In college we had a 7:00 pm curfew during the week and midnight on the weekends. Believe it or not that was more liberal than the policy in my family's house. We all eventually moved out for more freedom.Of course arriving home drunk at the homestead was always frowned upon.I consequently was the designated driver more times than you can imagine.

Extraneus

Man gets $2.7M NIH grant to research how government should text overweight people to get them to go on a diet.

These attacks may produce guffaws. But they gloss over the basic structure of the NIH grant process. For starters, it’s difficult, if not impossible, to predict what the big biomedical need will be five years down the road. NIH prioritizes certain subjects. But it also tries to spread resources to many fields.

Second, it’s scientists, not bureaucrats, who are doling out the money. Every year, experts in specific fields volunteer to be on an NIH study section. They sit in a room, review grant proposals, and score them based on scientific merit.

Science!

maryrose

As to lying-76% of those surveyed admitted lying.
That is why lying comes so naturally to Obama. He's been doing it his whole life.

Extraneus

That was six years ago.

It was actually a lot longer ago than that. (Not that I would know personally, since in my day college girls were chaste.)

clarice

Well, I wish I'd been in the room at NIH when they gave all that money to the guy who proposed origami condoms for men, women and anal sex--you know, the guy who took it and used it for full body plastic surgery and fun at the Playboy mansion.

henry

Ext, their smart refrigerator will text more often with things like "this Oreo cookie ice cream is not going to eat itself." The Internet of things is way ahead of science.

NKreBootDeux

The only twisted logic-- and it is twisted-- of the new puritanical 'yes means yes' regimes, is as jimmy points out, the built in assumption that girls lie about 'rape' all the time out of regret/remorse. If the Progs really do understand and admit that 'girls lie' then this
yes means yes' regime is more monstrous that I imagined.

anonamom

Here's the scoop on the anonymous patient at Emory--male doctor, flown in from Sierra Leone.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/another-u-s-ebola-patient-recovers-emory-n230031

NKreBootDeux

'then' 'that'-- jeez.

lyle

Those pix are tittilating, daddy.

Porchlight

Date rape ≠ sex you regret

College women are going to start wondering why no one will sleep with them.

matt

Remember the Amirault case in Massachusetts? Remember all of the murder convicts who have been released on DNA evidence or that of prosecutor misconduct?

State of mind is critical in sexual assault cases and unfortunately this has been poisoned by a toxic leftist victimology complex.

One of the most difficult legal issues has been very effectively politicized once again.The Left has descended into a madness of their own making.

Beyond. a. reasonable. doubt.

Jack is Back!

For all of you who missed the FSU V. ND game here it is in 30 seconds including the first person in and the last person out of the stadium.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/videos/os-video-timelapse-view-of-noles-win-over-irish-20141020-premiumvideo.html?utm_content=buffer8e506&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

NKreBootDeux

Ted Cruz at his best, 'Big Idea' conservative:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/10/19/ted-cruz-republicans-election-congress-priorities-jobs-obamacare-column/17267261/

maryrose

After the agony of the Duke Lacrosse case-{which TM handled beautifully on this blog} I mistrust all campus stories and believe these fake accusations hurt the real victims of rape. Going to the police is the right move. College kangaroo courts are not the answer. Being afraid because of backlash from other guys and jealous girls only makes the problem worse. Above all don't get so drunk that you pass out or don't realize what you are doing.I am speaking to the guys here also.This happens to high school girls as well.

maryrose

I am upset that they took the final touchdown of Notre Dame's back and then time ran out. They showed the replay but it looked like a ticky tacky call to me.

Jack is Back!

Even the WAPO and Ciilliza are resigned to the GOP taking the senate.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/20/republicans-chances-of-winning-the-senate-majority-keep-getting-better/

Add this to the AA's walking out on Obama after they got their iPhone photos.

Yawn©™®

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